DJIA Up in 77.3% of April OpEx Weeks Since 1982 | Jeff Hirsch

April's monthly option expiration is generally bullish across the board, with respectable gains on the last day of the week, the entire week, and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA has advanced 28 times in 44 years on monthly expiration day, with an average gain of 0.20%. 

 

DJIA has risen in 34 of the past 44 April options-expiration weeks (next week), with an average gain of 1.00%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also show strong seasonality, averaging weekly gains of 0.77% and 0.76%. Losses in 2022, 2024, and 2025 have tempered the longer-term averages. 

 DJIA April OpEx Week Performance since 1982: 77.3% higher.

 

 

S&P 500 April OpEx Week Performance since 1982: 65.9% higher.

S&P 500 has a similar record, also with 28 advances and an average advance of 0.15% on monthly expiration day. Monthly expiration day was trending solidly bullish after four or five declines from 2014 to 2018, but took hits in the 2022 bear market, 2024, and in 2025 due to Liberation Day tariff uncertainty.

NASDAQ April OpEx Week Performance since 1982: 63.6% higher.

Monthly expiration week also has a bullish track record over the past 44 years. Average weekly gains are +1.00% for DJIA, +0.77% for S&P 500, and +0.76% for NASDAQ. The bullish bias of April monthly expiration also persists during the week after, although average gains have not been as strong, with selling pressure rising (from 2018 to 2022). However, strength has returned since 2023. NASDAQ jumped 6.73% in the week after in 2025.

► April seasonality is strong: since 1950 it’s the 2nd-best month for DJIA and S&P 500, and since 1971 the 4th-best for NASDAQ.
► This April has started solidly (+0.52% DJIA, +1.98% NASDAQ) despite geopolitical tension, rising energy costs, and the April 15 tax deadline.
► Historically, early April outperformed—but since 1994, strength has shifted to the second half.
► Post–April 15 tends to be stronger (especially NASDAQ, Russell 2000).

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 10, 2026) - DJIA Up 77.3% of the Time During April Monthly Expiration Week since 1982.

 Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 7, 2026) - Income Tax Deadline, Earnings Season & Iran War: Second Half of April Historically Better.

 

April 10, 2026: DeMark TD Sequential 9 Sell Signal on the 4-hour SPY chart.

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Nicholas D. Savino (April 4, 2026) - April 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.

TPR (April 9, 2026) - Bradley Cowan’s Lunar Cycle Projection Methodology Applied to the S&P 500.
TPR (April 1, 2026) - Cosmic Cluster Days | April 2026.

S&P 500 in Wyckoff Markdown Phase | Major Low in July

In Wyckoff's Distribution Schematic, the S&P 500 (ES) has completed the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and the Test of Upthrust (TOU) sequence near the upper boundary of the trading range (Phase D). 

 The blue circle marks the current location of the S&P 500.

 

Following the Last Point of Supply (LPSY – Return to ICE) and the Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW), the S&P transitioned into clear Failure to Improve and Markdown type price action (Phase E) outside the trading range (Phases A to D). The decline is characterized by repeated failures to reclaim prior support levels, expanding supply, and the absence of sustained demand sponsorship. 

 

The Eternal Recurrence of the Same Wyckoff Cycle.

Any rally and retracement in April will likely be choppy and shallow and reflect Re-Distribution within the current Markdown Phase, which is expected to resume into July or even October. Measured from the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high, the absolute minimum downside target for the ES markdown is the 50% retracement near 5,940; however, in 2026 a deeper decline of 20%+ to around 5,350 or 4,830 is far more likely.

 

See also:

Alex Krainer (March 27, 2026) - Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

TPR (March 19, 2026) - 20-Week Cycle Low in the S&P 500 and US Stock Indexes | Major Low in July.

April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Over the past 21 years (solid lines in the chart below), April has exhibited a pattern of steady gains starting around April 7 (Tue)(Trading Day 5) and continuing through the end of the month, with only minor fluctuations along the way. Overall, it has generally finished positive across the board.

 

Midterm election years since 1950 (dashed lines) show strength from April 7 (Tue) through mid-April only, followed by choppy trading that typically ends the month flat or in negative territory.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Weaker in Midterm Election Years.

 

S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

  

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Nicholas D. Savino (April 1, 2026) - April 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.

S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low | Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500 cycle composite of the dominant 339, 185, 124, and 79-day cycles forecasts a reversal by late March. This move is expected to manifest as a "dead cat bounce," peaking near 6,500 in late May before a projected decline into October.

 

 

Bill Sarubbi notes that post-OPEX weeks in March are traditionally bearish, projecting a low for the S&P 500 and US stocks between March 26 (Thu) and April 7 (Tue).

 

Sarubbi's S&P 500 cycle composite forecast for 2026 started at a January peak, followed by a choppy decline through June, punctuated by a brief April recovery. After a late-summer bounce, the market hits its annual low in late September/early October. The year concludes with a sharp rally through December, carrying bullish momentum into 2027. 

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (March 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Cycles Update.

Bill Sarubbi (March 20, 2026) - Post-OPEX weeks in March.

 

The best timed trade of 2026.

US Stock Indexes Trigger Rare March-December Low Indicator | Jeff Hirsch

Originated by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst in the 1970s, the December Low Indicator is based on the Dow closing below its December closing low in the first quarter of the New Year. DJIA’s December closing low was 47,289.33 on 12/1/2025.

  

See the Historical Analogue 1966 vs. 2026
in @Fiorente2's "The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited."

 

The indicator also applies to the S&P 500, which closed below its December closing low of 6,721.43 (set on 12/17/2025). Historically, years when the S&P 500’s December Low Indicator was breached alongside a down January Barometer were weaker years. When the January Barometer was positive and the December Low was crossed, years tended to be stronger — which is the situation we find ourselves in today.

 

When the market has closed below its December closing low in the first quarter of the year, the market has dropped, on average, another 13.5% on the S&P 500 and 10.9% for the DJIA from the trigger point. Now that the December Low Indicator has been triggered on both the DJIA and S&P 500, some caution is in order.

 

Why This March Trigger Is Rare

Of the 36 December Low Indicator triggers on the S&P 500, this is only the fourth to occur in March, and the sixth among the 39 DJIA triggers. We’ve broken out the S&P DLI triggers by month in the accompanying tables above.

 

It’s not surprising that most January and February triggers were accompanied by a down January Barometer. Whereas all four March DLI triggers — including yesterday’s — came in years when the January Barometer was positive.

Here’s how the three trigger months compare historically:

• January triggers (24 occurrences): Average further decline of 12.92%; full year up 14 of 24 times, average gain of 1.30%
• February triggers (8 occurrences): The worst group — average further decline of 17.26%; down 6 of 8 full years, average loss of 8.13%
• March triggers (3 previous occurrences): The mildest — average further decline of 8.12%; one year up, two down, average full-year loss of 3.70%

The historical data suggests March triggers carry less downside risk than those in January or February — a meaningful distinction given today’s trigger.

 

The January Barometer Still Points Higher

When the S&P 500 January Barometer is positive — as it was this year — the full year is up 41 of 46 years (89.1% of the time) for an average gain of 16.95%. The next 11 months are up 87.0% of the time for an average gain of 12.24%.

 

When it’s down, the year is up only 50% of the time with an average loss of 1.75%, and the next 11 months average a paltry 2.07% gain.

 

Bottom Line

While the current situation suggests the market is likely to go lower in the near term, the positive January Barometer and the broader fundamental and macro backdrop remain supportive. When the indexes and your spirits are down and contrary sentiment indicators reach extreme bearish levels — a VIX above 40, Investors Intelligence Bearish % exceeding Bullish % — that’s historically the point at which the market turns higher again. Stay cautious in the near term, but keep the longer-term odds in perspective.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 13, 2026) - Iran Conflict Triggers a Rare March December Low Indicator.

 

What happens once the SPY closes down four weeks in a row.

 

What happens once the weekly RSI(2) closes at 5 or below. 

See also:

@Fiorente2 (March 16, 2026) - Historical Analogue: 1966 vs. 2026. In: The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited.

March Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Beginning on March 2 (Mon) (Trading Day 1), the US stock market historically follows two distinct paths. Over the recent 21-year period (solid lines in the chart below), March tends to open positively with modest gains through March 4 (Wed) (TD 3) before weakness leads to a sharp dip around March 9 (Mon) (TD 6). While indices typically move higher from March 16 (Mon) (TD 11), the NASDAQ and S&P 500 usually lead this recovery into the final close on March 31 (Tue) (TD 22).

 

March generally finishes positive across all major indices.

  

In contrast, Midterm Election years since 1950 (dotted lines) show significantly greater historical strength, potentially as a rebound from a typically tepid February. This cycle produces a front-loaded rally where R2K small caps flip from laggards to leaders, often outpacing S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ. Strength generally persists until the Spring Equinox, reaching a seasonal peak on March 20 (Fri) (TD 15). After this point, indices tend to lose momentum and close out the month with choppy trading. Despite these differing mid-month trajectories, March has a 64% win rate, generally finishing positive across all indices.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 25, 2026) - March’s Seasonal Pattern – Early Strength Persists Longer in Midterm Years. 

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

 

Detrended S&P 500 Seasonality.

 

Detrended VIX Seasonality (see also HERE). 

 

S&P 500 First 10 Days and Last 10 Days of the Month (1928-2024).

 

 S&P 500's Average Daily Return & Percent of Days Positive (1928-2024).

 

 DJIA (daily bars).

 

CNN Fear & Greed Index.

Bank of America's Bull & Bear Index hit 9.3 on February 24, crossing the contrarian "sell" threshold above 8, indicating excessive optimism among global fund managers. Historically, such readings preceded median three-month drawdowns of 5.5% for the S&P 500, and 8.6% for the Nasdaq.

 See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Branimir Vojcic (February 23, 2026) - VIX Cycles: Forecasting Volatility Peaks Through 2032. 

Larry Williams (February 19, 2026) - 2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa.

TPR (February 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Hurst Analysis: Projection into Mid-March 20-Week Cycle Low. 

Nicholas D. Savino (March 1, 2026) - March 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.

S&P 500: Hurst 10-Day Cycle Low Set to Hit Friday's CPI News Release

S&P 500 (3 hour candles): 10-Day cycle (currently ≈7.6 days) low due Friday, February 13 (CPI News Release).

 

 Nicolas Savino update, February 12.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 27, 2026) - February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

50% DJIA Gain Possible from 2026 Low to 2027 High | Jeff Hirsch

Historical data going back to 1914 shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has typically fallen about 20% from its peak in the year following a presidential election to its trough during the subsequent midterm year. Weakness has been most persistent in Q2 and Q3 of Midterm years. Regardless of the precise level reached, the advance that normally follows is a very attractive entry point for position traders (see tab and chart below).

% Change in DJIA between Midterm year Low and High of following year, 1914-2023.

Within the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, the most favorable phase begins late in the Midterm year: The strongest consecutive two quarters historically run from Q4 of the Midterm year into the Q1 of the Pre-Election year, delivering average gains of 46.3% for the Dow.

 

  S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

Q2 of the Pre-Election year is also notably strong—ranking as the third-best quarter of the Four-Year Presidential Cycle—effectively extending this high-performance window to three quarters, from Midterm Q4 2026 through Pre-Election Q2 2027. 

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 11, 2026) - January Barometer Rules: 2026 Midterm Year Forecast Update (webinar). 

 

Q4 2026: Sweet Spot of the 4-Year Presidential Cycle.

Assuming the future will be but an averaged past (1973-2026).   

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 27, 2026) - February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Bill Sarubbi (January 23, 2026) - 2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin.

Ned Davis Research (December 31, 2025) - 2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential, and Decennial Cycles.

2026 Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE | Jack Gillen

 Jack Gillen derived these solar zodiac positions as aspects to the NYSE natal chart, cast

for May 17, 1792 (8:52 am LMT) in New York, NY, using Geocentric Tropical coordinates.

  

» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less

active for each year, as the Sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date

every year. So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «

 

Quoted from:

Jack Gillen (1979) - The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange.

 

 Dates and times calculated for New York (EST/EDT).

 

positive = NYSE should reach a low and turn up.

negative = NYSE should reach a high and turn down.

neutral = expect small range or inside day. 

 

[ In general, however, these dates should be viewed simply as potential short-term market turn-days. ]  

 

S&P 500 (2016 and 2017) versus Gillen’s sensitive degrees of the Sun.

 

S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and %-Probability (1928-2024). 

See also: 

Solar Ephemeris for 2026.

  Jack Gillen (1979) - Sensitive Degrees of the Moon.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 27, 2026) - February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

According to the specific midterm data (1950–2022) indicated by the dotted lines on the chart below, the market typically begins with weakness, hitting an initial seasonal low on February 5 (Thu) (Trading Day 4) before attempting a choppy recovery.

 

 

This leads to a secondary dip around February 9 (Mon) just before a historical mid-month surge. This peak typically culminates on February 18 (Wed) (Presidents' Day February 16 (Mon), OpEx February 20 (Fri)). 

 

Following this peak, the "February Reversal" takes hold. In midterm years, the market typically enters a sideways trend, struggling to sustain gains. Conversely, the 21-year average shows a steadier decline that carries the market toward its final monthly low on February 27 (Fri).

 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 27, 2026) - February has opened strongly but then reverses after Presidents’ Day.

  

DJIA eyes 9-month win streak: Historically, 2-month

follow-up gains are 100% certain, averaging +5.34%. 

 

DJIA & NASDAQ Up 81.0% of time on first trading day of February. Average gains 
have been respectable ranging from 0.39% by DJIA to 0.64% from NASDAQ. 

Update February 9, 2026.

See also:

Nicholas D. Savino (February 1, 2026) - February 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.  

 David Hickson (January 26, 2026) - Unraveling the Hurst Cycles Harmony of the US Stock Market.

Namzes (January 5, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

NDR (December 31, 2025) - 2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential, and Decennial Cycles.

Silver Squeeze Blasts-Out Last Short Funds—Watch Grains | Oscar Carboni

I started in the silver pits as an 18-year-old kid back in 1982. For decades, Silver was stuck in a range between $7.50 and $21, even while other metals soared. While Gold moved from $265 to $4,000, and Copper and Palladium saw massive gains, Silver remained artificially suppressed.

» You must be careful not to "plow in" at these levels. «

Silver (daily chart).

For 40 years, major funds and big banks have held Silver down by selling it short and selling calls against it to collect premiums. They did this successfully for four decades until Silver finally got noticed by the broader public. What you are witnessing today is a massive, forced short squeeze. The funds that held short positions for 40 years finally got caught and are being forced to exit.
 

Caution in the Metals Sector

While the rally is exciting, you must be careful not to "plow in" at these levels. If you missed the initial move, you missed it. At $117, the volatility is extreme. Every $1 move in Silver represents a $5,000 gain or loss on a single lot. This looks like capitulation—the final "blow-off" top where the last remaining shorts are blasted out.

Gold (daily chart).

 

 Platinum (daily chart).

 

Copper (daily chart). 

 

Looking at the broader sector, Gold continues to trend within its reliable channels, and Platinum and Palladium are also moving higher. Copper had a fantastic rally today as well, moving at $250 per point.

 

The Next Opportunity: Grains

With Indices, Currencies, and Metals already having gone to the moon, I am looking for what is left. The answer is the Grain Market. Soybeans, Wheat, Corn, and Oats haven't moved yet. As spring planting approaches and other commodities become too expensive, watch for fund managers to rotate their capital into the grain sector.

Reference:
Oscar Carboni (January 26, 2026) - The Silver Squeeze Has Blown-out the last Hold-out Short Funds Today. (video)

 

Silver (XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale): Long-term Cup and Handle breakouts with 10x price targets, 1800-2025.

 

See also:

Namzes (January 26, 2026) - Silver: Local Top Intraday, not THE Top yet.

 Andrew Hoese (December 28, 2025) - Silver and Commodities: The Case for Long-Term Investment.