Memo from the Chief Economist: Lament of a Bear | David Rosenberg

One can reasonably debate whether the stock market has risen exponentially but there is no arguing that the surge in the S&P 500 these past two years has been nothing short of extraordinary. And it has clearly gone much further than I thought it would, especially in these past twelve months, and so at this point, it is worth the time and effort to discuss and interpret the message from the market.
 

 » Smells of capitulation. «

The bottom line: Tip the hat to the bulls who have, after all, been on the right side of the trade, and provide some rationale behind this powerful surge. This is not some attempt at a mea culpa or a throwing in of any towel, as much as the lament of a bear who has come to grips with the premise that while the market has definitely been exuberant, it may not actually be altogether that irrational. Read on.

Quoted from:
David Rosenberg (December 6, 2024) - Memo from the Chief Economist: Lament of a Bear. 

 

See also:

Tom McClellan (December 6, 2024) - Presidential Cycle Effects with a New President.
Steve Miller (December 5, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update.

BlackRock Investment Institute (December 4, 2024) - Due to 'Mega Forces': No More Bust, Only Boom. Outlook 2025.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 4, 2024) - December Stock Market Performance in Election Years. 

Tom DeMark (November 18, 2024) - US Stock Market Nearing a Top Similar to 1929.
Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

D'onte Goodridge (2024) - Structural Characteristics of Bullish and Bearish Months.

S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update | Steve Miller

In early November, both small caps and mid caps took the lead, but they have since paused. Recently, the mega caps have regained leadership, with Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all making sharp moves to the upside. This has contributed to a recent uptick in the S&P 500. On the upside, we have short term resistance levels between 6,073 and 6,176.

S&P 500 (weekly bars), six-month cycles, three-month cycles.

S&P 500 (daily bars), 20-trading day cycle trough is expected on December 7 (±3).

The next 20 trading day cycle low is expected on December 7 (±3 trading days), and the dominant cycle trough is due in late May to June of 2025. The market is clearly in a rising phase, with the weekly trend firmly up. Only a drop below the 5,700 low would shift the market from a bullish cycle structure to a bearish one. On the short-term S&P 500 chart, the current setup resembles Apple’s chart: a bullish, right-hand translation throughout nearly the entire rally.

 

Now there is this very narrow window around December 7 for a pullback. The downside base case would be between 6,025 and 5,963, followed by another move to the upside for a higher high. Overall, this remains a very bullish market during a bullish seasonal period, and fading the trend is not advisable at this time.

Reference:
Steve Miller (December 5, 2024) - US Stock Market - S&P 500 | Price Projections & Timing | Cycle and Chart Analysis. (video)

 

David Hickson (November 25, 2024) - Targets & Levels to Watch - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video) 

 

December Stock Market Performance in Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Trading in December is typically holiday-inspired, driven by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker due to tax-loss selling and year-end portfolio restructuring. Over the last 21 years, December’s first trading day has generally been bearish for both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. A modest rally through the sixth or seventh trading day often fizzles out as the month progresses. Around mid-month, however, holiday cheer tends to take over, and tax-loss selling pressure fades, pushing the indexes higher with a brief pause near the end of the month. In election years, Decembers follow a similar pattern but with significantly larger historical gains in the second half of the month, particularly for the Russell 2000.

■  A choppy first half of December before the year-end Santa Claus rally.

■ The Santa Claus rally begins on December 24 and lasts until January 3, 2025.

■ The 'January Effect' small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December.

■ See also [HERE], [HERE], [HERE], and [HERE].

 

Small caps tend to start outperforming large caps around the middle of the month, driven by the early January Effect. Our “Free Lunch” strategy is based on stocks making new 52-week lows on Quad-Witching Friday (December 20). The “Santa Claus Rally” (SCR) begins with the market open on December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the new year. Since 1969, the average S&P 500 gain during this seven-trading-day period has been a respectable 1.3%.

This serves as our first market indicator for the New Year. Years when the SCR fails to materialize are often followed by flat or down markets. Of the last seven instances where our SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year) did not occur, six were followed by flat years (1994, 2004, and 2015), two by severe bear markets (2000 and 2008), and one by a mild bear market that ended in February 2016. The absence of Santa this year was likely due to temporary inflation and interest rate concerns that quickly dissipated. As Yale Hirsch’s now-famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 3, 2024) - Overbought Markets Pullback During Typical Early December Weakness. 

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead.

Consumers have never been more interested in buying stocks. Corporate insiders have never been less interested. 

Pick your fighter. — Jason Goepfert, December 4, 2024.

The Status of the TOY Barometer at the End of November | Wayne Whaley

The way equity markets move from one year to the next often provides insight into what to expect in the following year. One of my favorite Turn of the Year (TOY) barometers is Toy2mt, which tracks the S&P 500's performance over the two months from November 19 to January 19. Historically, when the S&P shows a gain of 3% or more during this period, it has performed very well over the following 12 months (36-2 record, with an average return of 16.6%). I have found that the November component of Toy2mt (November 19-30) serves as an early indicator of what may lie ahead for Toy2mt and the year to come.

As of November 30, six of the first seven Toy2mt days were positive, and the November segment of Toy2mt stands at +1.98%, with bulls targeting a +3% Toy2mt return. Below is the performance for the following 12 months (December-November) since 1950, based on three different levels of the November 19-30 segment of Toy2mt.

 

» If I could make only one trade per year based on one indicator, it would be Toy2mt. «

[HERE], and [HERE]

When the November 19-30 period registers +1.5% or higher, it has typically been a positive signal for the following 12 months (December-November). In 2024, the November 19-30 period came in at +1.98%. It’s still early, and we will learn much more over the next seven weeks.

Wayne Whaley, November 30, 2024.

Cosmic Cluster Days | December 2024

Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. However, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows—also within the 'noise channel'—may correlate with or coincide with market movements and reversals. 

 

Cosmic Cluster Day  |   Composite Line  |  Cosmic Noise Channel

○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon

Nov 28 (Thu) | Dec 02 (Mon) | Dec 06 (Fri) | Dec 08 (Sun) | Dec 18 (Wed) | Dec 19 (Thu) | Jan 03 (Fri) | Jan 04 (Sat)

 

For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation methods, click [HERE]. See also:

 

 Seasonality.

 Sensitive Degrees of the Sun. 

 Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Barometers.

 Planetary Declinations.

 Monthly Astro Calendar.

 Lunation Cycle.

 SoLunar Rhythm.

 Chinese 24 Solar Terms.

20-Year High in Insider Selling Precedes Market Top | Adam Taggart

Insider selling is often early.

The highest bars in the chart above (ratio of sellers to buyers) seem to come before the final major price tops in the S&P 500. The ratio of insider selling to buying is now at a 20+ year high:

 

1. Stocks are at an all-time high.
2. Corporate executives are selling far more stock than they are buying.
3. It doesn't take a genius to see that the insiders are cashing out while the getting is good,

     leaving everyone else to be the patsy when the rug pull arrives.

Adam Taggart, November 27, 2024. 

Scott Rubner: 4% year-end rally to 6,200 in the S&P 500, and 7,000 not long after.
Bloomberg, November 25, 2024.

 

Over the past 50 years, the Nasdaq has only experienced one instance (2011) where it was negative both on the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving. Out of the 9 negative Wednesdays recorded during this period, the Nasdaq posted a positive return on 8 Fridays after Thanksgiving, with an average Friday gain of 1.39% and a median gain of 0.83%.

Wayne Whaley, November 27, 2024.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, November 28, 2024.

DJIA and S&P Bullish Into Year-End, with Bouts of Profit Taking | Day Hagan

In the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500, near-term resistance exists within bullish price channels, as negative A/D Line divergences are resolved. The bulls remain in control, but we are watching for signs that the post-election market action signals the beginning of a transition to a choppier 2025. Large-, mid-, and small-cap proxies didn’t come close to filling the upside gap created by the election results, nor did they break below their recent topside breakout ranges and levels. I view this as supportive (bullish) in the near term. It also suggests that the recent low serves as the first level of short-term support.

DJIA and S&P 500 (daily bars). Short-term resistance is still in place. When coupled 

with high levels of “Excessive Optimism”, bouts of profit-taking shouldn’t be surprising. Mind the gaps.

Have equities brought forward the historically bullish returns of the fourth quarter following elections? Are we at risk of such an occurrence? While I still believe there will be instances of profit-taking as we approach year-end, I consider seasonal charts to be secondary; they are not as significant as primary indicators and models.

The Dow Industrials' Four-Year Presidential Cycle suggests a choppy start to 2025, with weakness in the latter part of the 

first presidential year extending into the second year—an outlook that has not been widely discussed on Wall Street.

 

The bull market typically continues into the first year after an election, but the first two years tend to be rocky. Many bear markets begin in the first year and persist into the midterm election year, as seen with the bear market that started in 2021 and continued into 2022. Therefore, looking ahead, prudence suggests adopting an investment strategy that objectively manages risk.

Reference:
Day Hagan (November 27, 2024) - Bullish into Year-End with Bouts of Profit Taking.

 

The typical December Seasonal Pattern starts off dull and pops mid-month.

Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade │ Jeff Hirsch

Thanksgiving [Thursday, November 28] kicks off a run of solid bullish seasonal patterns. November-January is the year’s best consecutive 3-month span (2025 STA p. 149). Then there’s the January Effect (2025 STA p. 112 & 114) of small caps outperforming large caps in January, which begins in mid-December.

 » Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. «

And of course, the "Santa Claus Rally," (2025 STA p. 118) invented and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Almanac. Often confused with any Q4 rally, it is defined as the short, sweet rally that covers the last 5 trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. Yale also coined the phrase: "If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall."

We have combined these seasonal occurrences into a single trade: Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. Since 1950, S&P 500 has been up 79.73% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the 2nd trading day of the year with an average gain of 2.58%. Russell 2000 is up 77.78% of the time since 1979, average gain 3.34%.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 20, 2024) - Feast On Small Caps Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade.

 

 » From November 5 to December 31, the average return of the S&P 500 has been 2.68%; Nasdaq 100 5.53%, 

and Russell 2000 5.7%. In election years S&P 500 3.38%; Nasdaq 100 0.79%, and Russell 2000 7.94%. «

 Goldman Sachs fund flows guru Scott Rubner, November 6, 2024. See also [HERE].

 

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Hurst Cycles; Steve Miller, November 21, 2024. See also [HERE].

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 5, 2024) - Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead.

US Stock Market Nearing a Top Similar to 1929 │ Tom DeMark

The stock market has been charging along for months. Perhaps not for much longer. Tom DeMark, an award-winning technical analyst who has advised investors such as Paul Tudor Jones, Leon Cooperman, and Steven A. Cohen, believes a market top is imminent.

DeMark highlights that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, from its December 1914 low to its September 1929 high, rallied 624%. From the 2009 low to this week’s high, the Dow has gained 587%. He notes that the current price action mirrors the patterns from the earlier period.  

 

DeMark focuses on trend exhaustion, with the guiding principle that "markets top on good news and bottom on bad." He uses sequences of 9 and 13 daily, weekly, or monthly bars, which need not be consecutive but must exceed the performance from 4 sessions ago in the 9-model or 2 sessions ago in the 13-model. For more information on DeMark's Sequential 9-13 Setup, visit his website [HERE], and [HERE].

 DJIA (1913-1933, and 2008-current; monthly bars).

"On the daily charts of the Dow and S&P, two new all-time highs are needed to trigger a sell signal."

DeMark suggests the Dow’s optimistic upside potential is 47,045, and for the S&P 500, it is 6,118.

"This could lead to a 5% to 10% pullback or a full breakdown."

 

 DJIA (2019-2024; monthly bars).

He also compares the current rally to the one from 2020 to early 2022. The multi-month advance from late 2022 shows a potential upside projection identical to that earlier move.  

 

 DJIA (Q4 2024; daily bars).

For the S&P 500, DeMark reports that the monthly sequential model countdown is at 12 or 13, with an upside potential of 6,118. The S&P 500 closed Thursday, November 14, at 5,949, unable to maintain gains above the 6,000 mark. 

 

On the daily charts, both the Dow and S&P are at sequential countdown 11, meaning two new all-time highs are needed to trigger a sell signal. This could lead to a 5% to 10% pullback or a full breakdown. "The past two weeks' rally has been precarious. A sudden halt in buying—without selling pressure—could undermine the rally and shift the market into a sellers’ phase."

 

"While good news may last until Trump's inauguration, once buying interest fades, any subsequent rallies are likely to be short-lived." 

  Nvidia (February-November 2024; daily bars).

"A new closing high would mark the end of its rally."

DeMark is also cautious about Nvidia, the key microchip maker driving the AI revolution, which reports results next week. The stock is at countdown 12, and a new closing high would mark the end of its rally. DeMark projects Nvidia’s upside potential at $154.50 but warns the downside risk "could be significant."

 

Reference:
Steve Goldstein (November 15, 2024) - Tom DeMark says the stock market is nearing a top as he draws 1929 parallels.

 

 DeMark's Sequential 9-13 Setup.

 

See also:
Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.
Sergey Tarassov (September 8, 2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025. 

 

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Presidential Election Cycle 2024 - 2027.
4 Year Presidential Cycle in line with the Decennial Cycle. 

Trends and turning points are more important than levels. 60-, 80-, or 120-Year Cycle?

U.S. Stock Market Seasonality of the Week Before Thanksgiving │ Jeff Hirsch

DJIA has a fair track record over the last 31 years, rising 20 times the week before Thanksgiving (November 18-22) with an average gain of 0.44% in all years. But the other major U.S. stock market benchmarks are not as strong and there has been more weakness the past seven years. Since 2017, DJIA has advanced just once during the week before Thanksgiving.

Week Before Thanksgiving: DJIA Up 20 of 31, but Down in 6 of the Last 7.

 

Over the last 31 years, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have the same record, up 18 times, with similar average gains of 0.20% and 0.23% respectively. Russell 2000 has been the weakest, up 16 times with an average gain of 0.08%. Last year, the week before Thanksgiving, enjoyed solid across-the-board gains as the market recovered from a correction.

Should weakness materialize next week, it may be a solid set up for the Thanksgiving trade of buying into weakness the week before Thanksgiving and selling into strength around the holiday and/or during typical November end-of-month strength.

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 15, 2024) - Week before Thanksgiving DJIA Up 20 of 31, But Down 6 of last 7. 

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 5, 2024) - Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Barometers │ Turning Points in 2025

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices for 2025 (EST/EDT).

 

Q4 2024.

 

Q1 2025.

 

Q2 2025. 

 

Q3 2025.  

 

Q4 2025.  

The Bradley Barometer (also known as Bradley Siderograph or simply Bradley Index) is a financial astrology indicator created by Donald Albert Bradley (1925-1974) in the 1940s. Bradley developed a barometer that combines planetary transits. By assigning positive values to favorable transits and negative values to unfavorable ones, he created a weighted net sum oscillator graph.

Donald A. Bradley (1948) - Stock Market Prediction. 

The Planetary Barometer and How to Use it.

The equation for the Bradley Barometer indicator is calculated as follows:

[ (5) × (Long Term Value Sums + Declination Value Sums) ] + Middle Term Value Sums

The factor of five in the formula gives greater weight to (1) planetary aspects considered "Long Term" and (2) declinations. The Middle Term values represent planetary aspects that are important but receive less weight than the Long Terms. There are a total of 36 planetary aspects considered in the Barometer, broken down as follows:

• Long Term Aspects: 10 of the 36 aspects are classified as Long Term. These aspects generally involve the slower-moving outer planets (e.g., Jupiter, Saturn), and Bradley believed they should carry greater weight.
• Middle Term Aspects: 26 of the 36 aspects are classified as Middle Term. These aspects include the Sun and the faster-moving planets, from Mercury to Mars.
• Short Term Aspects: None of the 36 aspects are classified as Short Term. Bradley considered aspects involving the Moon to be Short Term, affecting only a few hours. Therefore, Short Term aspects are not incorporated in the Bradley Barometer, as they are not expected to influence medium- to long-term market behavior.

The slower-moving planets with longer synodic periods (e.g., Jupiter and other outer planets) compose the Long Term aspects, and these receive five times the weight of the Middle Term aspects. A synodic period between two planets is the time it takes for them to return to the same relative position in the sky (i.e., their conjunction).

 

The original geocentric Bradley Barometer takes planetary declination into account—planets higher in the sky above the horizon are given more positive values, while those lower in the sky, below the horizon, are assigned negative values. According to Donald Bradley, "The value of the declination factor is half the algebraic sum of the given declinations of Venus and Mars—northern declination considered positive and southern declination negative." It is also important to note that Bradley used a multiplier when calculating the value of declinations for the overall barometer.

Regarding this multiplier, Bradley stated that the Long Term and declination factors "may be given considerably more weight by multiplying them by 3, 4, or 5 times, depending on experimentation." Therefore, in computing the Bradley Barometer, one adds together (1) the sum of all the planetary aspects of the Middle Terms, and (2) the Declinations and Long Term Factors, adjusted by a multiplier, such as 3X, 4X, or 5X. 

 

The heliocentric index is an adaptation of the original geocentric Barometer concept, using heliocentric planetary positions instead. 

 

Donald A. Bradley, 1945.

Although there is no known physical correlation between these celestial movements and market behavior, the Bradley Barometer has been shown to correlate well with market turning points. However, regarding the limitations of his astro-indicator, Donald Bradley himself remarked the following:

 

"At no time must the reader gain the impression that a siderograph, as such, is a prediction of what the stock market will actually do. Nevertheless, observation proves that basic reversals in collective attitudes, clearly predicted by the line, are inevitably mirrored in stock averages. A limitation of the siderograph is that it cannot be construed as a forecast of secular trends. In statistical terminology, 'lines of regression' fitted to the market course and to the potential should not be expected to completely agree, for reasons obvious to anyone with keen business sense or commercial training."

Bradley indices are often misinterpreted, with many linking the slopes directly to market trends. Tops and bottoms can signal potential turning points in price, whether a peak or a trough. The importance of these turn dates is not dependent on the magnitude of the change before or after the turn, meaning that even moderate shifts can be just as significant as larger ones.

Abbreviations: geo = Geocentric Bradley Index; helio = Heliocentric Bradley Index; (L) = low; (H) = high. Expect the exactitude of turning points to be within ±1 day.

Geocentric Turning Points: 

2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = geo (L)    
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2024 Dec 27 (Fri) = geo (L)    

2025 Feb 02 (Sun) = geo (H)    

2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = geo (L)    

2025 Mar 24 (Mon) = geo (H)    

2025 Apr 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 04 (Sun) = geo (H)    

2025 May 14 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 27 (Tue) = geo (H)    

2025 Jun 14 (Sat) = geo (L)    

2025 Jun 16 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Jun 17 (Tue) = geo (L)    

2025 Jul 05 (Sat) = geo (H)    

2025 Jul 19 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    

2025 Aug 13 (Wed) = geo (H)    

2025 Sep 03 (Wed) = geo (L)    

2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = geo (H)    

2025 Oct 08 (Wed) = geo (L)    

2025 Oct 28 (Tue) = geo (H)    

2025 Nov 08 (Sat) = geo (L)    

2025 Nov 22 (Sat) = geo (H)    

2025 Dec 22 (Mon) = geo (L)    

2026 Jan 19 (Mon) = geo (H)    

Heliocentric Turning Points:    

2024 Dec 03 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 09 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 12 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 15 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 16 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 19 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 20 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 22 (Sun) = helio (L)    

2025 Jan 10 (Fri) = helio (H)

2025 Jan 22 (Wed) = helio (L)

2025 Feb 01 (Sat) = helio (H)

2025 Feb 06 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 08 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 16 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 20 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 22 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 26 (Wed) = helio (L)

2025 Mar 01 (Sat) = helio (H)

2025 Mar 05 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 10 (Mon) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 15 (Sat) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 19 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 20 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 25 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 28 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 29 (Sat) = helio (H)

2025 Apr 04 (Fri) = helio (L)

2025 Apr 09 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Apr 20 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Apr 29 (Tue) = helio (H)

2025 May 15 (Thu) = helio (L)

2025 May 18 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 May 20 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 May 28 (Wed) = helio (H)

2025 Jun 01 (Sun) = helio (L)

2025 Jun 04 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Jun 05 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Jun 06 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Jun 20 (Fri) = helio (L)

2025 Jul 01 (Tue) = helio (H)

2025 Jul 04 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Jul 11 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Jul 29 (Tue) = helio (H)

2025 Aug 01 (Fri) = helio (L)

2025 Aug 03 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 05 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 09 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 11 (Mon) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 14 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 16 (Sat) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 18 (Mon) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 20 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 25 (Mon) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 29 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 31 (Sun) = helio (H)

2025 Sep 01 (Mon) = helio (L)

2025 Sep 02 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 05 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 14 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 21 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 24 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 26 (Fri) = helio (H)

2025 Oct 02 (Thu) = helio (L)

2025 Oct 05 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Oct 15 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Oct 24 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Oct 29 (Wed) = helio (L)

2025 Oct 30 (Thu) = helio (H)

2025 Nov 02 (Sun) = helio (L)

2025 Nov 06 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 07 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 09 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 13 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 14 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 16 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 20 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 25 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 29 (Sat) = helio (H)

2025 Dec 05 (Fri) = helio (L)

2025 Dec 10 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Dec 23 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 Dec 25 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Dec 27 (Sat) = helio (L)

2026 Jan 02 (Fri) = helio (H)

2026 Jan 08 (Thu) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 16 (Fri) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 17 (Sat) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 21 (Wed) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 25 (Sun) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 26 (Mon) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 31 (Sat) = helio (L)

Geocentric and Heliocentric Turning Points:    

2024 Dec 03 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = geo (L)    
2024 Dec 09 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 12 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 15 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 16 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2024 Dec 19 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 20 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 22 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 27 (Fri) = geo (L)    

2025 Jan 10 (Fri) = helio (H)    

2025 Jan 22 (Wed) = helio (L)    

2025 Feb 01 (Sat) = helio (H)    

2025 Feb 02 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Feb 06 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 08 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 16 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 20 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = geo (L)    
2025 Feb 22 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 26 (Wed) = helio (L)    

2025 Mar 01 (Sat) = helio (H)    

2025 Mar 05 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 10 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 15 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 19 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 20 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 24 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Mar 25 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 28 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 29 (Sat) = helio (H)    

2025 Apr 04 (Fri) = helio (L)    

2025 Apr 09 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Apr 20 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Apr 29 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Apr 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    

2025 May 04 (Sun) = geo (H)    

2025 May 14 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 15 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 May 18 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 May 20 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 May 27 (Tue) = geo (H)    
2025 May 28 (Wed) = helio (H)    

2025 Jun 01 (Sun) = helio (L)    

2025 Jun 04 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Jun 05 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Jun 06 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Jun 14 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jun 16 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Jun 17 (Tue) = geo (L)    
2025 Jun 20 (Fri) = helio (L)    

2025 Jul 01 (Tue) = helio (H)    

2025 Jul 04 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Jul 05 (Sat) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 11 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Jul 19 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Jul 29 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Jul 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    

2025 Aug 01 (Fri) = helio (L)    

2025 Aug 03 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 05 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 09 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 11 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 13 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2025 Aug 14 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 16 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 18 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 20 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 25 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 29 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 31 (Sun) = helio (H)    

2025 Sep 01 (Mon) = helio (L)    

2025 Sep 02 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 03 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Sep 05 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = geo (H)    
2025 Sep 14 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 21 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 24 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 26 (Fri) = helio (H)    

2025 Oct 02 (Thu) = helio (L)    

2025 Oct 05 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Oct 08 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Oct 15 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Oct 24 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Oct 28 (Tue) = geo (H)    
2025 Oct 29 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Oct 30 (Thu) = helio (H)    

2025 Nov 02 (Sun) = helio (L)    

2025 Nov 06 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 07 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 08 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Nov 09 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 13 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 14 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 16 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 20 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 22 (Sat) = geo (H)    
2025 Nov 25 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 29 (Sat) = helio (H)    

2025 Dec 05 (Fri) = helio (L)    

2025 Dec 10 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Dec 22 (Mon) = geo (L)    
2025 Dec 23 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 Dec 25 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Dec 27 (Sat) = helio (L)    

2026 Jan 02 (Fri) = helio (H)    

2026 Jan 08 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 16 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 17 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 19 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2026 Jan 21 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 25 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 26 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 31 (Sat) = helio (L)    

 

Additional information on Bradley Indices and Turning Points from previous years.

Cross-check Bradley Turn dates with Cosmic Cluster Days.

The New Moon typically marks the beginning of a cycle, while the Full Moon signifies its completion.
In bull markets, New Moons are often bottoms, and Full Moons are tops.
In bear markets, New Moons are often tops, and Full Moons are bottoms.

Major news releases (NFP, CPI, PPI, PMI, FOMC, etc.) and options expiration dates (especially Quad and Triple Witching) can delay or disrupt typical cyclical market behavior and astro signals.

 

Price always moves from Consolidation to Expansion, never from Consolidation to Reversal or from Consolidation to Retracement. After an Expansion, two possible scenarios can occur: either a Retracement or a Reversal, followed by another Expansion or Consolidation.

 

Glenn W. Brier and Donald A. Bradley (1964) - The Lunar Synodical Period and Precipitation in the United States.

 Golden Mean between Rainfall and Lunar Phases.

Tom McClellan (November 7, 2024) - New York Rain and Stocks - Silly, But Accurate.