Showing posts with label Lars von Thienen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lars von Thienen. Show all posts

Friday, December 13, 2024

US Stock Market at the Cliff — Don't Be a Lemming | Lars von Thienen

[...] The chart below depicts a composite model of all identified cycles in the P/E Shiller data from 1900-2024. Notably, the "cliff" phenomenon, where all cycles synchronize their peaks at a single point in time, has only occurred in 1929, 2000, and now appears to be happening again in 2024. 
 
 Composite Cycle Analysis Model for the P/E Ratio of the S&P500 from 1900-2024 | December 6, 2024.

[...] The 42-Month Cycle has the highest strength and is the dominant cycle in the dataset. This 42-Month Cycle is generally significant for financial markets, as it has been identified across numerous financial assets. Let's take a closer look at what makes this cycle so special in this case. Starting with the current situation, the 42-Month Cycle has topped at major market peaks, such as the internet bubble in 2000, the financial crisis in 2007, and 2021. Additionally, the bottoms of this cycle have been synchronized.
 
42-Month Cycle in the P/E S&P 500 Ratio | 1900-1950.

42-Month Cycle in the P/E S&P 500 Ratio | 1999–2024.

[...] A cycle that remains remarkably stable in length and phase over 120 years is quite uncommon. As shown in the upper chart, the 42-Month Cycle is also currently reaching its peak and transitioning into a downward phase, which is expected to continue into 2026.

Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Friday, November 1, 2024

The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks | Lars von Thienen

The weekly S&P 500 shows that the nominal 180-week cycle, currently at 177 weeks, is in an early topping stage. This long-awaited time cycle has been monitored since the end of 2023 and has been cited as a key driver for the upturn lasting into this window. Now that we have arrived at this point, we need to pay close attention to the shorter-term cycles and technical indicators.

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Kitchin Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

Before moving to the daily cycle analysis, it is worth noting that the cyclic-tuned RSI indicator has reached the upper band, indicating a "bull exhaustion" mode. This condition can turn within days into a "bulls tired" and/or "bulls exit" state, signaling that we are primed for a longer-term reversal. The same weekly cycles situation can be observed on the NASDAQ.

NASDAQ weekly cycles | October 23, 2024

Let's now examine the daily cycles, starting with the S&P 500 model.

 » The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. «
 S&P 500 daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The main cycles are the 192-day and the harmonic 89-day trading cycles. The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. The cRSI indicator shows we are nearing the upper band, which could also signal a final year-end rally before both daily cycles align with the downward-trending weekly cycle noted earlier. A similar perspective can be observed in the Nasdaq daily data.

Nasdaq Composite daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The shorter-term daily cycles with lengths of 80 and 200 trading days on the Nasdaq model are rolling over now and will likely continue into the end of 2024. These cycles are also coming into alignment with the next long-term downward swing, which is in sync with the long-term cycles shown earlier.

It's worth noting that we're seeing a divergence forming, as the market experienced a clear topping pattern in June of this year: At that time, the composite model peaked while the cRSI was breaking down below the upper band, issuing a sell signal. The price never went back to achieve a higher high, and the cRSI is indicating an even bigger divergence between the price action and the signal line. The technical indicators shown below have been adjusted to the cycles detected and mentioned above. The highlighted red or green shaded areas indicate that the higher timeframe - here the weekly S&P 500 - is also taken into consideration. 

S&P 500 - cRSI cyclic indicator | October 23, 2024

The multi-timeframe cyclic technical indicator is showing a clear divergence between price and the signal. While the weekly chart confirms another overbought situation at the time the divergence signal emerges, this provides technical confirmation of a possible top in place. A similar technical condition can be observed on the NASDAQ.
 
Nasdaq Composite | October 23, 2024

 
Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Panic & Stock Market Crash into End of October ? | Lars von Thienen

Lars von Thienen (Oct 16, 2022) - The coming weeks from October 17 to October 30 will be fascinating. One of the critical time cycles that will come into play next week are the so-called "Dark Days" cycles of past crashes.
 

[...] The chart shows us 4 cyclic patterns now in place surrounding market panics:
  1. The “Dark Days” fall on 21.-22. October next week. Compared to 1929 and even if the markets have already gone down, this has given the index another -30% correction with extremely heavy selling.
  2. The leading movement is synchronized with the Jewish High Holidays: From a leading top in the market (point 1), there is a correction to Rosh Hashanah (2). Rosh Hashanah marks the beginning of the Jewish calendar. From there, a very small rally begins, ending on Yom Kippur (3). Yom Kippur is the emotional climax of the Jewish faith’s high holy days. This cyclical pattern is not well known - but has been seen in all major crashes in the past. See also the alignment in the chart in 1929.
  3. The next cyclical pattern which is seen at financial panics is the so called “Puetz crash window”. According to that pattern, all US crashed had the same important 6-weeks-window signature around a solar eclipse. According to that pattern a panic begins near a full moon that occurs within 6-weeks of a solar eclipse. This year, the solar eclipse occurs on 25. October.
[...] The cyclic configuration we recognize here is unique and does not occur frequently in this bundling.
 
Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Friday, October 14, 2022

Periods When to Make Money | Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low

Samuel Benner was a prosperous American farmer wiped out financially by the 1873 panic and a hog cholera epidemic. In retirement, he set about to establish the causes and timing of fluctuations in the economy. 
 
Edward R. Dewey (1967):
» If you had used these dates for trading, your percentage gains between 1872 and 1939
would have been 50 times your losses! «

In 1875 he published a book called "Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices" forecasting commodity prices for the period 1876 to 1904. Many - not all - of these forecasts were fairly accurate. The Benner Cycle includes:
  • A (upper line): "Years in which Panics have occurred and will occur again." A 54 year cycle alternating every 18, 20 and 16 years.
  • B (middle line): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds." Cycles alternating every 8, 9 and 10 years.
  • C (lower line): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc, and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload". A 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 7, 11, 9 years and peaks in the order 8, 9, 10 years (B - middle line).
Benner's cycle projections align with the latest analysis of the "Foundation for the Study of Cycles" and are pointing to a major stock market low in the US in 2023. David Hickson's Hurst cycle analysis projects this low to March of 2023 and Martin Armstrong to April 11, 2023 (Tue).
 
» Periods When to Make Money « ; the original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co.
Apparently, the diagram was compiled by George Tritch in 1872, but was not attributed to
him by Samuel Benner in 1875.
 
References:
 
 
Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)