Showing posts with label Nasdaq. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nasdaq. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

July OpEx Since 1990: Friday –0.35%, Then Stabilization | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, July options expiration has been choppy, with the weakest performance on expiration Friday: DJIA and S&P 500 average –0.35%, NASDAQ –0.44%, and all three decline about two-thirds of the time. 


Expiration week is mixed—DJIA +0.38% (58.3% positive), S&P 500 ~flat (–0.04%), NASDAQ –0.13%. The following week stabilizes modestly (DJIA +0.15%, S&P 500 +0.09%); NASDAQ averages –0.17% but rises in 52.8% of years, skewed by a few large drops. Overall, July expiration tends to create brief downside pressure that fades as focus returns to earnings and fundamentals.

 
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Monday, June 29, 2026

Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin | David Hickson

This market update focuses on the danger of symmetry in cycle analysis. Across all markets analyzed—S&P 500, NASDAQ, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin—the central theme is consistent: the risk of symmetrical M shapes forming within a larger bearish cycle context. While not yet confirmed, multiple signals—failed targets, breakdowns below FLDs, and weaker second peaks—suggest increasing downside risk. Confirmation will depend on upcoming price interactions with key FLD levels.

S&P 500: The analysis builds on a major cycle trough at the end of March. In the prior update, the 80-day cycle trough was identified as likely complete. Cycles typically generate M-shaped price structures: an initial rise to a peak, a decline to a mid-cycle trough (e.g., 40-day), followed by a second peak and eventual decline into the larger cycle trough. The recent structure formed a distorted, bullish M shape, where the second peak was not symmetrical but elevated.
 
Topping in symmetrical 20-week M structure, likely heading into 18-month trough around late August. 
[current average cycle periods in stacked, color-coded boxes at bottom right.] 
 
Attention now shifts to the larger 20-week cycle, which is also forming an M shape. The first leg ran from the late-March trough to a peak, followed by a decline into the mid-June 80-day trough. A key analytical risk is symmetry: a perfectly symmetrical M shape typically indicates a neutral market. However, the presence of an upcoming 18-month cycle trough—expected around August—implies a bearish context. When a cycle concludes into a higher-magnitude trough, the resulting M shape is typically bearish, characterized by a lower second peak and a stronger decline.


Following the June 80-day trough, price should rise before eventually turning down into the 18-month trough. The concern is that the current price action may be forming a symmetrical structure, signaling weakness. Price has struggled to rally, reinforcing this risk.
 
Examining interactions with the 20-day FLD (Future Line of Demarcation), price crossed above it after the 80-day trough (an A-category signal), but failed to reach its projected target—a first bearish sign. Subsequently, during formation of the 20-day cycle trough, price broke below the FLD instead of finding support, marking a second bearish signal. While not conclusive, this raises the probability of a bearish cycle. The next confirmation would be a failed attempt to reclaim the FLD. 
 
 
The thick blue dashed composite model line, which reconstructs price behavior based solely on cycle inputs, illustrates the symmetry risk clearly: a period of compression followed by a breakdown into the 18-month trough. This model is not predictive but conditional—if cycles persist as analyzed, this is the expected trajectory. The broader context includes a 54-month trough in October 2023 and an 18-month trough in April 2025, with the next 18-month trough projected for August.

The NASDAQ mirrors this structure. Its 80-day trough formed slightly earlier in June, followed by a move above the 20-day FLD that failed to meet its target and then reversed below it—again producing two bearish signals. A symmetrical M shape is also forming here, with similar downside risk into the 18-month trough.
 
Mirroring S&P with a failed FLD sequence, rolling over toward an August 18-month trough.
 
A remote bullish alternative exists: a triangular consolidation could represent a final base, with price breaking upward and shifting the 80-day trough forward. However, this would imply an extended cycle length (around 87 days vs. the typical 68), weakening the analysis. Confirmation would require a strong upward move through the FLD with target achievement.

The Australian ASX provides confirming evidence through Hurst’s principle of commonality, which observes that global markets tend to form troughs synchronously. The ASX identified the 20-week trough earlier than US markets and also formed its 80-day trough earlier. It now shows a similar setup: a potential bearish M shape with a lower second peak and a projected decline into an 18-month trough around late July or early August.
 
Late-stage M structure with residual strength, direction unresolved but biased down into late July–early August.
 

However, the ASX differs in that it successfully achieved certain FLD targets and even exceeded one, indicating residual bullish strength. Despite this, it later broke below the FLD again, signaling vulnerability. The next expected interaction (E-category) will determine direction: success implies continued strength; failure reinforces bearish symmetry. Notably, the composite model underestimated the recent peak, suggesting more bullishness than expected and raising the possibility of misidentified longer cycles.

In Gold, a major peak earlier in the year has maintained bearish pressure. A potential 80-day trough was identified, but price failed to confirm it by crossing above the FLD. Instead, price repeatedly found resistance at the FLD (GH interactions), leaving the trough unconfirmed.
 
Unconfirmed 80-day trough with repeated FLD rejection, likely weak bounce before continuing lower over the near term.
 
If a trough is forming, it would imply an unusually long cycle (~93 days), which is plausible for Gold. Confirmation requires a clean break above the FLD and target achievement. The composite model suggests a near-term bounce followed by renewed decline.

Bitcoin presents a more complex case. The prior analysis suggested a 20-week trough may have formed in early June, but this remains uncertain due to subsequent lower lows. If that trough is valid, the current 20-day cycle is exceptionally bearish—an early warning of broader weakness. Price initially crossed above the FLD (A-category), but failed to reach its target and then broke below the FLD, producing two bearish signals.
 
Structurally weakening; either already in a bearish 20-week cycle or still topping, with downside 
pressure building into the next few weeks to months within the current 18-month cycle.
 
Alternatively, the 20-week trough may still be forming, in which case the earlier FLD signal was anomalous. Cycle timing supports this ambiguity, as current price action aligns with expected trough timing based on average cycle length (~19.6 weeks).

Zooming out, Bitcoin has followed Hurst cycle rhythms closely. A 54-month trough formed in late 2022, followed by an 18-month trough in August 2024 (~593 days, slightly extended) and another candidate in February (~547 days, near ideal length). If this structure holds, Bitcoin is now in the final 18-month cycle of the current 54-month cycle. The first 18-month cycle was strongly bullish, the second moderately bullish, and the current one is showing early bearish characteristics—raising concern that the broader trend is turning down into the next major trough expected in 2027.
 
 
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Thursday, June 25, 2026

July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Historically one of the market's stronger months, July typically sees a consistent upward trend across all major indexes (solid lines), often driven by optimism ahead of second-quarter earnings. Over the last 21 years (2005–2025), gains have built from a strong first trading day, with the NASDAQ leading at an average gain of just over 3%. While the S&P 500, DJIA, and Russell indexes also show robust positive trends, their momentum generally slows after mid-month.

Historically strong and earnings-driven, July favors broad index gains—especially the NASDAQ—
but midterm election years routinely trigger underperformance and small-cap volatility.

However, midterm election years tell a different story (dashed lines). Performance during these periods is notably weaker and more volatile: the DJIA and S&P 500 manage only modest gains, while small-caps (Russell 2000) historically struggle the most, often finishing July in negative territory. Ultimately, while seasonal trends favor equities, the midterm backdrop warns that volatility can emerge unexpectedly.
 
Reference:

July Seasonal Stock Market Performance (2000-2020).
 
 
 July is historically one of the year's strongest months, ranking third since 1950 for both the
DJIA and S&P 500 during midterm election years with average gains of 1.6% and 1.3%.
 
NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally—last 3 days of June through first 9 of July—
has gained an avg 2.5% since 1985, hitting in 32 of 41 years (78%).
 
Second Half 2026 Outlook.
 
In US midterm years (2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022), July delivers the broadest
market strength of the second half, with every major sector posting positive
average returns (S&P 500 +3.65%), led by Technology (+4.11%),
 Energy (+4.26%), and Consumer Discretionary (+4.10%).  

See also:
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Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices | Jack Gillen

According to Jack Gillen in "AstroStats for the New York Stock Exchange" (2002), the transit of the Sun through 13°–22° Cancer is one of only two Sun-related market statistics that reached his highest reliability category, defined as the 70–100% accuracy group: 
"There are only two statistics related to the Sun falling into the group of the 70–100 percent accuracy. They were both activated in the United States chart on July 4, 1776, and the natal Sun is at 13-degrees of Cancer. On July 5th of every year the Sun transits 13-degrees of Cancer. This cycle has an orb of 13–22 degrees of Cancer, and the transit dates would be from July 7–15 each year. The price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be higher on the 15th than on the 7th..." 
Gillen associated this pattern with the natal chart of the United States, dated July 4, 1776, in which the Sun is positioned at 13° Cancer. Based on his research, the period from July 7 to July 15 each year—when the transiting Sun moves through 13°–22° Cancer—has historically shown a bullish tendency in the stock market. 
 
His rule states that the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on July 15 is expected to be higher than its closing value on July 7. Gillen reported an overall historical accuracy rate of 72.8% across the full sample he analyzed, while the period from 1987 to 2001 produced an even stronger accuracy rate of 86.6%. As a result, he regarded this as one of the most significant Sun-based market indicators in his work, interpreting it as a recurring mid-July bullish pattern linked to the activation of the US Sun degree. About other sensitive degrees of the Sun, he writes (1979):
"The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less active for each year, as the Sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year. So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. 

Jun 29 (Mon) 17:44 = SUN @ 8 CAN = 98 degrees = positive = should reach a low and turn up
Jul 04 (Sat) 23:37 = SUN @ 13 CAN = 103 degrees = negative = should reach a high and turn down
Jul 08 (Wed) 03:08 = SUN @ 16 CAN = 106 degrees = positive
Jul 10 (Fri) 05:28 = SUN @ 18 CAN = 108 degrees = negative
Jul 24 (Fri) 21:30 = SUN @ 2 LEO = 122 degrees = negative
Jul 29 (Wed) 01:59 = SUN @ 6 LEO = 126 degrees = positive
Aug 09 (Sun) 13:46 = SUN @ 17 LEO = 137 degrees = negative
[more HERE]
The market will always be influenced by the Sun pattern, and it will happen year after year. You will find from January to the last two weeks in July the market prices will be upwards, and in the latter part of the year, after the influence of Leo, the market will be down in price. This is the average trend that will always occur. This affects volume as well as price itself."

The solar cycle is a highly reliable annual cycle based on the Sun's direct, unvarying motion, allowing market turning points and seasonal patterns to be tracked to the exact day year after year. Acting as a market almanac of observed price behaviors, this cycle maps market responses to the Sun's passage through the zodiac signs, providing investors with a predictable annual road map. 

 
Key Turning Dates of the Solar Cycle vs. the DJIA, 1885-2015.
(Pesavento & Smoleny, 2015) 
 
Because the United States was founded on July 4, 1776, under the cardinal sign of Cancer, American financial markets are also exceptionally sensitive to planets transiting cardinal points or forming key harmonic angles to them. Consequently, the market consistently establishes major lows as the Sun enters the four cardinal signs: Aries, Cancer, Libra, and Capricorn (blue thick verticals in the chart above: March 20–21, June 20–21, September 22–23, December 21–22). Chronologically, the annual cycle of the Sun versus the DJIA unfolds through these cardinal alignments and their corresponding market seasonals:
■  January / Capricorn (Opposition): The Sun’s opposition in Capricorn marks an extreme bottom point, which immediately triggers a strong January Effect (bullish December 20 to January 7) rally.
■  March / Aries (Square): The Sun enters Aries, creating the first challenging square to the US natal sign, often coinciding with the volatile Ides of March (bearish February 2 to March 28).
■  April: As the Sun advances, market momentum shifts into the April Earnings Rally (bullish March 28 to April 16).
■  May: This upward momentum stalls, prompting the classic "Sell in May and Go Away" (bearish April 16 to June 26) defensive strategy.
■  June/July / Cancer (Conjunction): The Sun’s conjunction in Cancer creates a distinct market bottom that directly sets the stage for the subsequent Summer Rally (bullish June 26 to September 4).
■  October/November / Libra (Square): The Sun enters Libra, forming a second, highly disruptive square to the US sign; these combined October–November squares present the market’s greatest systemic challenges, historically triggering the Fall Crash Cycle (bearish September 4 to October 27) and major market meltdowns.
■  December: Following the autumn lows, the cycle concludes as the market recovers into the year-end Santa Claus Rally (bullish October 27 to December 8), resetting the annual pattern.

 Seasonal Dates of the Solar Cycle vs. the DJIA.
 

Moon from Virgo to Pisces = Go Long | Moon from Pisces to Virgo = Go Short
His lunar statistics were detailed primarily in "AstroStats for the New York Stock Exchange" (2002), with related discussion in the revised "The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange" (2009). He analyzed historical NYSE/DJIA data against Moon transits, assigning reliability percentages. Individual Moon signs rarely reach his high-confidence threshold (70–100% accuracy), but specific patterns and directional cycles do. 
"There is a Moon statistic that falls into the 70–100 percent group but is closer to the 70 percent group, and that’s the Moon’s transit from Virgo to Pisces. Therefore, if you are looking to go long with a stock it’s best to start during this period. [...] If you have a stock you want to short, your best chance would be from the sign of Pisces to Virgo." 
On average, the Moon spends 2.46 days transiting through each zodiac sign.
Times and Dates for New York (ET).
 
 Reference:
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Monday, June 22, 2026

NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally from June 25 to July 14, 2026 | Jeff Hirsch

As July approaches, attention turns to NASDAQ’s 12-Day Midyear Rally, a seasonal pattern running from the close of the fourth-to-last trading day of June (Thursday, June 25) through the ninth trading day of July (Tuesday, July 14). 

Since 1985, the rally has averaged a 2.5% gain (2.9% median) and finished higher in 32 of 41 years, a 78% success rate. Its strongest performances include gains of 10.4% in 1999, 10.0% in 2000, and 9.6% in 2016, while recent advances reached 4.7% in 2020, 4.1% in 2023, 3.8% in 2024, and 3.3% last year. 
The pattern has persisted through bull and bear markets, recessions, and recoveries, likely reflecting quarter-end rebalancing, new-quarter capital inflows, and improving sentiment ahead of earnings season. Although it has failed nine times since 1985, its four-decade record makes it one of NASDAQ’s most durable and reliable seasonal tendencies.

 
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Monday, June 15, 2026

Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC | David Hickson

In the prior update, we assessed whether the 80-day cycle trough formed early in mid-May or on schedule in early June. Most instruments pointed to a first-week-of-June trough. The key was a decisive test using Hurst’s Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), which now provides the evidence reviewed here.

S&P 500: Analysis continues to use a shortened nominal cycle model due to persistently compressed cycle lengths in US equities, particularly the SPX, while acknowledging the possibility that true Hurst wavelengths still govern. Under this framework, a potential 18-month trough was inferred on March 31 based on proximity to a 20-week trough, and an 80-day trough was projected for mid-May. 
 
[current average cycle periods in stacked, color-coded boxes at bottom right.] 
 
The validation mechanism was price behavior at the 20-day FLD: holding above it would confirm the trough, while breaking below would indicate it still lay ahead. In early June, price briefly held the FLD but broke below it on Friday, confirming the 80-day trough had not yet formed and signaling a reversion to standard Hurst cycle lengths.

Nasdaq: Expectation was likewise that the 80-day trough remained ahead unless price held above the FLD. Friday’s clean break below confirmed the trough was still pending and invalidated the early-trough scenario. 
 
 
The 18-month trough placement remains uncertain, though Sentient Trader identifies it at the end of March; if correct, the structure is bullish, as the market would be in the second 80-day cycle rather than the final one.

Australian ASX: Initial price action—an A-category move above the FLD combined with a nest of lows—suggested the trough had formed early. 
 

However, a subsequent break below the FLD disrupted that view, and although price later reclaimed the FLD in what is likely another A-category interaction, the structure remains less coherent than in US markets. With the 18-month trough still ahead, the market may still be in a bearish phase depending on its position within the cycle.

German DAX: Break below the FLD confirmed the 80-day trough had not yet formed. A nest of lows suggests it likely formed recently, and price has since moved back above the FLD in an A-category interaction. 
 

Even so, with the 18-month trough still ahead, downside risk remains if this is the final 80-day cycle within that larger structure.

Indian NIFTY-50: Price crossed above the 20-day FLD on Friday, confirming the 20-week trough formed earlier in the week and marking the start of a bullish phase.
 

 
Gold: Repeated failures at the FLD formed a GH interaction pair, confirming the 80-day trough had not yet formed at that time. It likely completed shortly after, around Thursday, June 11. 
 
 
While the near-term outlook is upward, an 18-month trough still lies ahead, implying potential future downside pressure.

Bitcoin: 20-week trough formed in the first week of June. FLD behavior showed a GH interaction followed by an A-category breakout, confirming the trough. Although the composite structure is somewhat atypical, the short-term bias remains bullish.
 
 
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Tuesday, June 2, 2026

June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

June is typically constructive for equities: over 31 years, NASDAQ leads (+1.7%), followed by Russell 2000 (+1.2%), Russell 1000 (+0.4%), and S&P 500 modestly positive, while DJIA is roughly flat. A common pattern is mid-month weakness followed by a recovery into month-end, suggesting dip-buying behavior.

June's Seasonal Crossroads: Strong Recent Trends vs. Historical Midterm Weakness.

In contrast, midterm-election years show consistent June declines across all major indexes. Small caps are hit hardest (Russell 2000 −2%), with NASDAQ, Russell 1000, S&P 500, and DJIA also posting notable losses. This aligns with broader midterm seasonality: heightened political uncertainty and policy risk tend to weaken markets in Q2–Q3, with strength often deferred to Q4.

Bottom line: June is usually bullish, especially for growth/tech, but midterm years introduce clear downside bias. Monitoring which pattern dominates can signal the market’s trajectory for the rest of the year.
 
Reference:

June Seasonal Stock Market Performance (2001-2021).
 
See also:
 
As we are living in a time like no other, by June 2026, the S&P 500 (red line) shows a negative correlation (–4.83%) with its historical midterm election year pattern since 1950 (green line). Instead, the index more closely aligns with post-election year (94.49%, purple line) and pre-election year (93.5%, orange line) patterns. The post-election analogue (purple) suggests a flat to slightly negative trajectory into early July 2026, followed by a rise in prices through year-end. The pre-election analogue (orange) points to a broader, range-bound pattern through late September 2026, before similarly trending higher into year-end. The black line represents the average yearly seasonal pattern of the S&P 500 from 2000 to 2025, which remains flat from June into early September, declines into early October, and is followed by a steeper rise into year-end.


NDR's pattern matching tool shows that the NASDAQ has closely tracked the dotcom analog and is closer to 1998 than 2000. It still suggests near-term volatility ahead.

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Monday, June 1, 2026

Hurst 80-Day Cycle Low in SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC | David Hickson

The global market stands at a critical crossroads regarding the 80-day (or 20-week) cycle trough. Price action relative to the 20-day FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) serves as the ultimate macro decider across all major indices. Holding support or breaking cleanly above this line confirms the trough is behind us, validating a bullish continuation. Conversely, failing at or breaking below the FLD signals that a deeper cycle decline is still underway.

S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 maintains a strongly bullish bias, with the 80-day trough likely already in place after a brief 49-day run from the March 31 low. While officially phased as a 20-week trough, the immense underlying strength suggests a much larger 18-month cycle trough formed in late March, running significantly shorter than Hurst's nominal model at a recent average of 11.4 months.
 
S&P 500 (daily candles, April-June 2026): The 80-day trough is likely complete,
favoring an immediate bullish advance if price holds above the 20-day FLD this week.
However, at day 62 of a nominal 68-day cycle, the index implies about six days of remaining downside. 
 
This right-translated structure favors an immediate A-category upside continuation. The next minor 20-day cycle trough is due this week, where price must find support at the 20-day FLD to keep this bullish interpretation intact. A clean breakdown below the FLD invalidates the view and opens the door to lower lows.

NASDAQ: Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ analysis relies on Hurst's original nominal model, which indicates the 80-day cycle trough still lies ahead. At day 62 of a nominal 68-day cycle, the index implies about six days of remaining downside, pointing toward an F-category interaction that should drag price below the 20-day FLD. 
 
NASDAQ (daily candles, April-June 2026): The 80-day trough remains ahead with roughly
six days of downside expected, unless price invalidates this by holding above the 20-day FLD.
 
However, because the recent average wavelength is an unusually stretched 89.5 days, this phasing remains under scrutiny. The 20-day FLD is the key tactical level to resolve this model divergence: if price holds above the FLD instead of breaking down, the NASDAQ will pivot to match the S&P 500's bullish "trough-is-in" reality.

Australian ASX: The Australian market provides a clean, textbook cross-check for global commonality. The 80-day cycle trough formed precisely as anticipated, arriving roughly one week earlier than projected near the May 18 window. 
 
ASX (daily candles, April-June 2026):The 80-day trough is locked in, establishing
a textbook bullish advance that eyes a minor 20-day trough support level this week.
 
Price has since executed a flawless bullish sequence, crossing above the 20-day FLD via an A-category interaction, finding exact support on the retest, and resuming its march higher. Cycle projections should now be shifted forward, timing the next 20-day trough for this week—where it should again find support at the FLD—followed by a 40-day trough roughly three weeks later.

German DAX: The DAX confirms a high-confidence shorter-term sequence but offers less macro clarity due to choppy data continuity. The prevailing model suggests a 40-day trough formed in late April and the most recent low was merely a 20-day trough, meaning the 80-day decline has not yet occurred. 
 
DAX (daily candles, April-June 2026): The 80-day trough timing is unresolved, leaving
the directional bias strictly dependent on whether price holds or breaks the 20-day FLD. 
 
However, because the 80-day cycle whisker still encompasses this recent low, a definitive conclusion is impossible based on phasing alone. Just as with the US markets, the fixed-wavelength 20-day FLD will provide the final verdict through upcoming price interaction.

Nifty 50 (India): The Nifty 50 is actively diverging from global commonality, displaying an isolated bearish structure. Following an early-April 80-day trough and a mid-May 40-day trough, the index has already broken cleanly below its 20-day FLD in an F-category interaction. 
 
Nifty 50 (daily candles, April-June 2026): The index has broken below the 20-day FLD, diverging
from global markets as it heads into a major 20-week cycle trough due in two weeks. 
 
Rather than acting as a leading indicator that drags Western markets down, this breakdown reflects weaker-than-usual global synchronization for the Nifty. Price remains on track toward a major, projected 20-week cycle trough expected in roughly two weeks.

Gold (XAUUSD): Gold maintains a neutral-to-slightly bearish broader outlook, capped by a potentially massive, long-term cycle peak. In the near term, a classic GH-category interaction pair against the 20-day FLD strongly indicates that an 80-day cycle trough formed late last week, executing roughly seven days later than the recent average wavelength. 
 
Gold (daily candles, May-June 2026): Neutral-to-sluggish overall after forming an 80-day trough
last week, requiring a break above Friday's high to safely confirm a new upward advance.
 
Price has since teased an A-category breakout but recently slipped back below the FLD line, threatening a double GH interaction. A conservative entry requires waiting for price to clear Friday's high to confirm the new cycle advance and eliminate near-term downside risk.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bitcoin's underlying cycles are rapidly contracting, pulling its macro timeframe forward. Approximately 115 days have passed since the foundational 18-month cycle trough in February. While Hurst's nominal model projects a 136-day wavelength for the 20-week trough, compressed shorter cycles suggest this major nest of lows will arrive ahead of schedule, likely late this week. 
 
Bitcoin (daily candles, April-June 2026): Shorter cycles are compressing toward a major 20-week
nest of lows expected this week, where an FLD breakout will signal a powerful new advance.
 
A recent failure to sustain a breakout above the 20-day FLD confirmed a textbook GH-category resistance pair, proving the trough was not yet in. The next interaction with the 20-day FLD is critical: an aggressive A-category breakout will confirm the 20-week trough is structurally complete and launch a major upward advance.

 
41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Hurst Method Nominal Market
Cycle Chart by Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, 1985. 
 
The S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 bottomed in a 41-month Kitchin
cycle trough in late March 2026, approximately 3.5 years after their previous major low in October 2022.
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