Hurst Time-Price Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

For the S&P 500, the target for the 20-day cycle bottom was 5,812. We are currently in a bearish 80-day cycle, with a downside target set at 4,660. It has been 528 days since the 18-month cycle trough in October 2023. 

 

 S&P 500 (daily bars).

In both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, the 40-day cycle trough is likely to occur 

next week around April 14-18, and the 18-month cycle trough around mid-May.

The average duration of an 18-month cycle is 546 days, meaning we still have some time before the 18-month cycle trough is expected. We anticipate that this upcoming trough around mid-May will be more significant than a typical 18-month cycle.

 NASDAQ (daily bars).

In the NASDAQ, the situation is similar. We are heading toward a major cycle trough, expected around mid-May. A 40-day cycle trough is likely to occur sometime next week (April 14-18), with the larger cycle trough anticipated about five weeks later.

Reference:
David Hickson (7 April 2025) - Bear Cycle Targets - Hurst Cycles Market Update (SPX, NDX) (video)

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (April 4, 2025) - DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2.

Bullish Weekly Price Action in US Stock Indices & Stats | Guilherme Tavares

From a price action perspective, the latest weekly close was quite bullish. Since the 70s, there have been few instances when the SPX reclaimed its 50-week MA within just 1 week after losing it, having previously been in an upward trend.

Average return 5 weeks later: 2.95%, positive 83% of the time.

Guilherme Tavares, March 25, 2025.

 

 NYA, SPY, ES, S&P 500, NQ, YM (weekly candles): 

Weekly Pivots and Retracement Levels.

 

Wednesday, March 26: Continuation or Reversal?

 

Frank Ochoa (March 25, 2025) - Pre-Market Video:
Last Week Compression. This Week Bullish Expansion? (video)

 Oppenheimer: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Trajectory (2020-2025): 

Buy March 23. From April high sideways-to-down into mid May low.

BoA: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Pattern (2015-2025): 

"Buy April Dip for May Rip."

 

Jeff Hirsch: April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and
fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good.

 

Carl Futia : June S&P E-mini futures headed for new bull market highs. 

Support is now 5800. 

 

Tom Pizzuti (March 25, 2025: "I’m not wholly certain that the wave iii low was set on

March 13th. and thus, open to a new low to complete iii. Of course, I could be wrong."

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

See also:
TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.

Hurst Cycles Forecast Bearish Q1 for S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

The first quarter of 2025 is expected to be bearish for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Following the 40-day cycle trough observed in early December, the S&P 500 is expected to form a 80-day cycle trough around mid-January, i.e., this week.

 

 

 S&P 500 down into late March or early April.

A significant cycle trough in the first few months of 2025 is anticipated, likely around March or April. The price action as it exits the 80-day cycle trough will be crucial in determining the strength of the recovery or the continuation of the bearish trend.

 NASDAQ down into May.

The NASDAQ's 20-week cycle trough was formed in mid-December, and a significant 18-month cycle trough is expected around May 2025. A weak bounce from this week's low would indicate further bearish movement into May.

Reference:
David Hickson (January 13, 2025) - A Bearish Start to 2025 - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks | Lars von Thienen

The weekly S&P 500 shows that the nominal 180-week cycle, currently at 177 weeks, is in an early topping stage. This long-awaited time cycle has been monitored since the end of 2023 and has been cited as a key driver for the upturn lasting into this window. Now that we have arrived at this point, we need to pay close attention to the shorter-term cycles and technical indicators.

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Kitchin Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

Before moving to the daily cycle analysis, it is worth noting that the cyclic-tuned RSI indicator has reached the upper band, indicating a "bull exhaustion" mode. This condition can turn within days into a "bulls tired" and/or "bulls exit" state, signaling that we are primed for a longer-term reversal. The same weekly cycles situation can be observed on the NASDAQ.

NASDAQ weekly cycles | October 23, 2024

Let's now examine the daily cycles, starting with the S&P 500 model.

 » The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. «

 S&P 500 daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The main cycles are the 192-day and the harmonic 89-day trading cycles. The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. The cRSI indicator shows we are nearing the upper band, which could also signal a final year-end rally before both daily cycles align with the downward-trending weekly cycle noted earlier. A similar perspective can be observed in the Nasdaq daily data.

Nasdaq Composite daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The shorter-term daily cycles with lengths of 80 and 200 trading days on the Nasdaq model are rolling over now and will likely continue into the end of 2024. These cycles are also coming into alignment with the next long-term downward swing, which is in sync with the long-term cycles shown earlier.

It's worth noting that we're seeing a divergence forming, as the market experienced a clear topping pattern in June of this year: At that time, the composite model peaked while the cRSI was breaking down below the upper band, issuing a sell signal. The price never went back to achieve a higher high, and the cRSI is indicating an even bigger divergence between the price action and the signal line. The technical indicators shown below have been adjusted to the cycles detected and mentioned above. The highlighted red or green shaded areas indicate that the higher timeframe - here the weekly S&P 500 - is also taken into consideration. 

S&P 500 - cRSI cyclic indicator | October 23, 2024

The multi-timeframe cyclic technical indicator is showing a clear divergence between price and the signal. While the weekly chart confirms another overbought situation at the time the divergence signal emerges, this provides technical confirmation of a possible top in place. A similar technical condition can be observed on the NASDAQ.

 

Nasdaq Composite | October 23, 2024

Quoted from:
Lars von Thienen (October 23, 2024) - The next wave on the horizon for the US stock markets – it is time to prepare.

See also:
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

Sergey Tarassov  (September 8, 2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025. 

Sergey Tarassov  (June 26, 2024) - 2024 DJIA vs 40 Month and 42 Month Cycles.

Edward R. Dewey (1971) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Stocks. 

 

  Carol S. Mull (1989) - The 3 1/3 - Year Kitchin Cycle.

 

Joseph Kitchin (1923) - Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors.

Nasdaq’s Midyear Rally from around June 26 to July 12 | Jeff Hirsch

In the mid-1980s tech’s influence in the market began to grow and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. In anticipation of positive results, over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. 

 

This 12-day run has been up 30 of the past 39 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. Look for this rally to begin around June 26 and run until about July 12.

After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last fourteen years, up twelve times with two losses. After struggling in the bear market of 2022, NASDAQ resoundingly rebounded last year to gain 4.1% compared to a total July gain of 4.0%.

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 24, 2024) - Christmas In July: Tech Weakness Setting Up NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally.

 

See also:

Wayne Whaley (Jun 22, 2024) - An encouraging study for the Summer Bulls.
Wayne Whaley (June 17, 2024) - The Summer Rally.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 17, 2024) - June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration – A Volatility Haven.

TPR (June 20, 2024) - Cosmic Cluster Days | July 2024.

Pervasive Euphoria Across The Market | Lines on a Chart by Tom

The markets closed another week at record highs, with the S&P 500 up by 2.3%, the Nasdaq by 3%, and the Dow by 2%. [...] I want to share two charts that caught my attention: The first chart, courtesy of Sentimentrader, depicts the small speculator index at the bottom. The annotation succinctly captures the essence of the chart— "small speculators are all in." 

 

 Small speculators are all-in.

This mirrors my observation last week regarding fund managers being fully invested based on the NAAIM index. The alignment between market participants, both large and small, underscores the pervasive euphoria across the market.

 Tech leadership vs S&P 500 is at highs exceeding the Great Financial Crisis.

The second chart, from Bank of America Global Research, highlights the Technology leadership versus the S&P 500, reaching levels surpassing those seen before the Great Financial Crisis. This serves as an intriguing backdrop to maintain awareness as sentiment and positioning continue to stretch.

Quoted from:

TomTheTrader1 @ Twitter/X
Lines on a Chart by Tom - (Mar 24, 2024) - The Market & The Moon. 

 

This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is 93.22. 

Active fund managers are all-in.

 

 [Euphoriameter]

 

 [CNN Fear & Greed Index ]

 

 

 [McClellan Oscillator]

 

Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern of U.S. Stock Indexes | Jeffrey A. Hirsch

In 2023 the 15th trading day of June will be Wednesday, 21st - summer solstice.

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter.

Artificial Intelligence Long Range Forecasts | Stock Indices | Crude Oil | Gold

FFC Long Range Forecasts rely exclusively on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to analyze and model.
Source: Financial Forecast Center, LLC.

Red dots represent monthly mean prices. First dot after the dashed vertical is June 2016, last one November 2016.

 

 

 

MarketVector Financial Forecasts produces long range forecasts using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA).
MSSA to decompose the time series into a trend component and many cyclical components. The decomposed
components of the time series are then projected forward in time.

Chartsedge  provides stock market forecasts are based on cycle
data which has been analyzed by a Pattern Recognition Program.

McVerry Report generates 5-Day U.S. Market
Forecasts based on Artificial Intelligence.

Nasdaq - Outside Reversal Day

Oscar Carboni - Nasdaq (Jan 14)