June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

June is typically constructive for equities: over 31 years, NASDAQ leads (+1.7%), followed by Russell 2000 (+1.2%), Russell 1000 (+0.4%), and S&P 500 modestly positive, while DJIA is roughly flat. A common pattern is mid-month weakness followed by a recovery into month-end, suggesting dip-buying behavior.

June's Seasonal Crossroads: Strong Recent Trends vs. Historical Midterm Weakness.

In contrast, midterm-election years show consistent June declines across all major indexes. Small caps are hit hardest (Russell 2000 −2%), with NASDAQ, Russell 1000, S&P 500, and DJIA also posting notable losses. This aligns with broader midterm seasonality: heightened political uncertainty and policy risk tend to weaken markets in Q2–Q3, with strength often deferred to Q4.

Bottom line: June is usually bullish, especially for growth/tech, but midterm years introduce clear downside bias. Monitoring which pattern dominates can signal the market’s trajectory for the rest of the year.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 3, 2026) - June's Seasonal Crossroads: Strong Recent Trends vs. Historical Midterm Weakness. 

June Seasonal Stock Market Performance (2001-2021).

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500. 

 

As we are living in a time like no other, by June 2026, the S&P 500 (red line) shows a negative correlation (–4.83%) with its historical midterm election year pattern since 1950 (green line). Instead, the index more closely aligns with post-election year (94.49%, purple line) and pre-election year (93.5%, orange line) patterns. The post-election analogue (purple) suggests a flat to slightly negative trajectory into early July 2026, followed by a rise in prices through year-end. The pre-election analogue (orange) points to a broader, range-bound pattern through late September 2026, before similarly trending higher into year-end. The black line represents the average yearly seasonal pattern of the S&P 500 from 2000 to 2025, which remains flat from June into early September, declines into early October, and is followed by a steeper rise into year-end.

NDR's pattern matching tool shows that the NASDAQ has closely tracked the dotcom analog and is closer to 1998 than 2000. It still suggests near-term volatility ahead.

Hurst 80-Day Cycle Low in SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC | David Hickson

The global market stands at a critical crossroads regarding the 80-day (or 20-week) cycle trough. Price action relative to the 20-day FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) serves as the ultimate macro decider across all major indices. Holding support or breaking cleanly above this line confirms the trough is behind us, validating a bullish continuation. Conversely, failing at or breaking below the FLD signals that a deeper cycle decline is still underway.

S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 maintains a strongly bullish bias, with the 80-day trough likely already in place after a brief 49-day run from the March 31 low. While officially phased as a 20-week trough, the immense underlying strength suggests a much larger 18-month cycle trough formed in late March, running significantly shorter than Hurst's nominal model at a recent average of 11.4 months.

 

S&P 500 (daily candles, April-June 2026): The 80-day trough is likely complete,

favoring an immediate bullish advance if price holds above the 20-day FLD this week.

 

This right-translated structure favors an immediate A-category upside continuation. The next minor 20-day cycle trough is due this week, where price must find support at the 20-day FLD to keep this bullish interpretation intact. A clean breakdown below the FLD invalidates the view and opens the door to lower lows.

NASDAQ: Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ analysis relies on Hurst's original nominal model, which indicates the 80-day cycle trough still lies ahead. At day 62 of a nominal 68-day cycle, the index implies about six days of remaining downside, pointing toward an F-category interaction that should drag price below the 20-day FLD. 

 

NASDAQ (daily candles, April-June 2026): The 80-day trough remains ahead with roughly

six days of downside expected, unless price invalidates this by holding above the 20-day FLD.

 

However, because the recent average wavelength is an unusually stretched 89.5 days, this phasing remains under scrutiny. The 20-day FLD is the key tactical level to resolve this model divergence: if price holds above the FLD instead of breaking down, the NASDAQ will pivot to match the S&P 500's bullish "trough-is-in" reality.

Australian ASX: The Australian market provides a clean, textbook cross-check for global commonality. The 80-day cycle trough formed precisely as anticipated, arriving roughly one week earlier than projected near the May 18 window. 

 

ASX (daily candles, April-June 2026):The 80-day trough is locked in, establishing

a textbook bullish advance that eyes a minor 20-day trough support level this week.

 

Price has since executed a flawless bullish sequence, crossing above the 20-day FLD via an A-category interaction, finding exact support on the retest, and resuming its march higher. Cycle projections should now be shifted forward, timing the next 20-day trough for this week—where it should again find support at the FLD—followed by a 40-day trough roughly three weeks later.

German DAX: The DAX confirms a high-confidence shorter-term sequence but offers less macro clarity due to choppy data continuity. The prevailing model suggests a 40-day trough formed in late April and the most recent low was merely a 20-day trough, meaning the 80-day decline has not yet occurred. 

 

DAX (daily candles, April-June 2026): The 80-day trough timing is unresolved, leaving

the directional bias strictly dependent on whether price holds or breaks the 20-day FLD. 

 

However, because the 80-day cycle whisker still encompasses this recent low, a definitive conclusion is impossible based on phasing alone. Just as with the US markets, the fixed-wavelength 20-day FLD will provide the final verdict through upcoming price interaction.

Nifty 50 (India): The Nifty 50 is actively diverging from global commonality, displaying an isolated bearish structure. Following an early-April 80-day trough and a mid-May 40-day trough, the index has already broken cleanly below its 20-day FLD in an F-category interaction. 

 

Nifty 50 (daily candles, April-June 2026): The index has broken below the 20-day FLD, diverging

from global markets as it heads into a major 20-week cycle trough due in two weeks. 

 

Rather than acting as a leading indicator that drags Western markets down, this breakdown reflects weaker-than-usual global synchronization for the Nifty. Price remains on track toward a major, projected 20-week cycle trough expected in roughly two weeks.

Gold (XAUUSD): Gold maintains a neutral-to-slightly bearish broader outlook, capped by a potentially massive, long-term cycle peak. In the near term, a classic GH-category interaction pair against the 20-day FLD strongly indicates that an 80-day cycle trough formed late last week, executing roughly seven days later than the recent average wavelength. 

 

Gold (daily candles, May-June 2026): Neutral-to-sluggish overall after forming an 80-day trough

last week, requiring a break above Friday's high to safely confirm a new upward advance.

 

Price has since teased an A-category breakout but recently slipped back below the FLD line, threatening a double GH interaction. A conservative entry requires waiting for price to clear Friday's high to confirm the new cycle advance and eliminate near-term downside risk.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bitcoin's underlying cycles are rapidly contracting, pulling its macro timeframe forward. Approximately 115 days have passed since the foundational 18-month cycle trough in February. While Hurst's nominal model projects a 136-day wavelength for the 20-week trough, compressed shorter cycles suggest this major nest of lows will arrive ahead of schedule, likely late this week. 

 

Bitcoin (daily candles, April-June 2026): Shorter cycles are compressing toward a major 20-week

nest of lows expected this week, where an FLD breakout will signal a powerful new advance.

 

A recent failure to sustain a breakout above the 20-day FLD confirmed a textbook GH-category resistance pair, proving the trough was not yet in. The next interaction with the 20-day FLD is critical: an aggressive A-category breakout will confirm the 20-week trough is structurally complete and launch a major upward advance.

Reference:
David Hickson (June 1, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Market Update: Was That The 80-Day Cycle trough? (video)

David Hickson (May 18, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, Gold, Bitcoin.  

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.  

 

41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Hurst Method Nominal Market

Cycle Chart by Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, 1985. 

 

The S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 bottomed in a 41-month Kitchin

cycle trough in late March 2026, approximately 3.5 years after their previous major low in October 2022.

 

See also:

Edward R. Dewey (1971) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Stocks. 

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting.

May 24 to June 5: Fifth-Ranked Bullish S&P Seasonal Period | Wayne Whaley

My Top Ten Seasonal Model evaluates the performance of every time frame in the year, from 7 to 35 calendar days, and identifies the top 10 mutually exclusive periods.

May 24 to June 5, S&P positive in 37 of 50 years with 1.21% average return

and only one 3%+ loss, while Nasdaq averaged 1.77% with 38 up periods.

May 24 to June 5, which I refer to as the Post-Memorial Day Rally, is my 5th-ranked S&P seasonal trade of the year for both the S&P and the Nasdaq when comparing all time frames across the year. 

 

Notably, over the last 50 years, the S&P experienced only one 3% loss (1981) during this period, versus ten different years that recorded 3% gains. The last ten cases have been positive.

 

Wayne Whaley, May 24, 2026.

 

See also:

TPR (May 19, 2026) - Pre- and Post-Memorial Day Seasonal Patterns in US Stock Indexes. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 1, 2026) - May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Pre- and Post-Memorial Day Seasonal Patterns in US Stock Indexes

Memorial Day weekend (May 23-25, 2026) has become the unofficial start of summer for many Americans, marking a notable transition in financial markets. In recent years, trading activity typically begins a gradual decline shortly afterward—barring major external events—toward a later summer low. 

 

Over the past 20 years, the Thursday before Memorial Day has delivered the strongest average gains across major indices (DJIA +0.07%, S&P 500 +0.18%, NASDAQ +0.34%, Russell 2000 +0.32%). Friday shows a solid percentage of up days—particularly for the NASDAQ (66.7%, +0.38% average)—but with more mixed overall performance. Wednesday is the weakest, with negative average returns. The dataset includes 2025; both median returns and win rates also tend to favor Thursday in several cases.

Market participants refer to this summertime slowdown as the summer doldrums, characterized by anemic volume and often uninspired, range-bound trading on Wall Street. Seasonal volume patterns since the 1960s for the NYSE and 1970s for the NASDAQ show this typical lull, with daily trading volumes frequently dropping 20-40% from winter peaks, reaching troughs particularly in late July and August as vacations reduce institutional participation.

In the lead-up to the holiday, historical performance presents mixed yet distinctive results. Thursday before Memorial Day has consistently delivered the strongest average gains across the DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 in 21-year analyses. Friday, the last trading day before the long weekend, records a higher proportion of advancing sessions for most major indexes, with the NASDAQ standing out at a 66.7% win rate, an average gain of 0.38%, and nine up closes in the last ten years. That said, this Friday session also tends to feature lackluster, light-volume trading. For the DJIA, results have been essentially neutral over extended periods, with an even split of up and down closes and a modest average decline of approximately 0.05%.

 

 May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years:

Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

Following the holiday, market behavior often turns more muted and, in recent decades, weaker. The Tuesday after Memorial Day has shown notable softness, with the DJIA and S&P 500 declining in seven of the last nine observed years, alongside more frequent losses in the NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Broader post-holiday windows, including the full trading week after Memorial Day, performed robustly from the early 1970s through the mid-1990s but have since weakened considerably, with reduced frequency of positive returns and smaller average gains, especially since the late 1990s and after 2010. An event study of returns spanning three days before to three days after the holiday generally aligns with long-term daily averages, showing no pronounced anomaly.

Beyond the immediate sessions, the broader period from Memorial Day to Labor Day (September 7, 2026) has historically produced net positive, albeit modest, results for the S&P 500. The index has advanced in roughly 70% of periods since the early 1970s, with average gains typically ranging from 1.6% to 2.8%. This summer window fits within the broader “Sell in May and Go Away” tendency, during which overall returns tend to be softer than in the November-to-April period, even as the Memorial Day-to-Labor Day segment itself often contributes positively amid the lighter volumes of the doldrums.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns, 1949-2024.

 
In midterm-election years such as 2026, these summer patterns can intersect with the broader presidential cycle, which historically features heightened volatility and often subdued returns. Midterm years frequently see notable market lows forming between late July and mid-August, aligning with the depth of the summer doldrums, reduced liquidity, and pre-election political uncertainty. Such periods have at times served as bottoming phases, setting the stage for stronger recoveries later in the year or into the following pre-election period, though outcomes vary with prevailing economic and geopolitical conditions.

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 19, 2026) - Trading Mixed Before Memorial Day Weekend.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 1, 2026) - May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 8, 2024) - Summer Doldrums Have Arrived - Market Volume Likely to Continue Fading.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.
Meghan Nalty-Roach (May 01, 2025) - How Memorial Day Impacts the Markets.

 

 

» The bull capitulation is almost complete. «

 

See also: 

David Hickson (May 18, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, Gold, Bitcoin. 

TPR (May 1, 2026) - Cosmic Cluster Days | May 2026.

Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, NIFTY, Gold, Bitcoin | David Hickson

Global equity markets are diverging: US indices may have already formed an 18-month cycle trough, while others likely have not. Despite this, all markets are synchronously declining into an 80-day cycle trough expected into late May or early June. S&P 500 and NASDAQ show strong bullish signatures suggesting a possible completed 18-month trough, yet are now rolling into 80-day lows. ASX and DAX still point toward pending 18-month troughs, with ASX clearly bearish and DAX more neutral. Gold is bearish post-January peak, and Bitcoin is descending into a synchronized 80-day / 20-week trough.

 

S&P 500: A confirmed 20-week cycle trough occurred on March 30 (Mon), potentially aligning with an unconfirmed 18-month cycle trough. In Hurst cycle analysis, tracking shorter cycles allows to infer longer-cycle behavior. To maintain analytical clarity, this update sets aside longer-cycle markers to focus on the confirmed 20-week trough.

S&P 500 (daily candles), March to June 2026: Downside into an 80-day trough into late May remains the base case. 

Prior bullish excess suggests underlying strength, so declines may be muted, but a break below the 20-day FLD is still expected.  

[ Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of

each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts. ] 

 

On April 29, a 40-day cycle trough formed. Instead of breaking below the 20-day Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) to meet its downside target—as expected under normal conditions—price found support at the FLD. This resilience signals underlying bullishness, likely driven by a high-amplitude 20-week cycle or the larger 18-month cycle trough.

The next major milestone is an 80-day cycle trough projected for late May. Price is currently testing the 20-day FLD in what appears to be an F-category interaction, implying an imminent breakdown toward a downside target. Although recent bullish momentum could truncate this target, an 80-day trough rarely forms at the 20-day FLD level; thus, the base case remains a move lower.

Timing Metrics: 48 days have elapsed since the late-March trough. Given a nominal 80-day wavelength (historically 68 days, but recently averaging 60.5 days), this trough may arrive slightly early, narrowing the target window to late May. 

NASDAQ: Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ's 18-month cycle trough lies ahead, highlighting broader long-term uncertainty. However, shorter cycles offer actionable clarity. Following a late-March trough, price crossed above the 20-day FLD and significantly exceeded its upside target, signaling intense bullish momentum.

NASDAQ (daily candles), April to June 2026: Stronger than the S&P, with prior momentum overwhelming

normal cycle behavior. Now rolling into an 80-day decline, likely shallow relative to typical cycle moves.

 
The 40-day trough likely formed early. Price failed to even retrace to the 20-day FLD during this phase—a classic indication of exceptional strength rather than analytical error. Price is now returning to the 20-day FLD for an F-category interaction. At 48 days post-trough, the NASDAQ is poised to decline into its 80-day cycle trough alongside the S&P 500. 

 

Australian ASX: The ASX anchors the global divergence thesis. Its 18-month cycle trough lies ahead, creating a structurally bearish backdrop. While the 20-week trough occurred slightly ahead of the US and boasts a highly reliable (74.4%) FLD interaction sequence, the index recently failed to reach its upside breakout target.

ASX (daily candles), April to June 2026: Structurally bearish into a pending 18-month trough. Failed upside targets

and expanding cycles confirm weakness. The 80-day trough is imminent or aligns into early June.

 
An unfulfilled bullish target is a vital diagnostic signal confirming underlying bearish pressure. Furthermore, a displaced nest of lows indicates expanding shorter cycles (delayed troughs), typical of a bearish environment.

Timing Metrics: 56 days have elapsed since the March trough. With recent cycle wavelengths averaging 57.8 days, the 80-day trough is imminent, though global synchronization could defer it to late May or early June.

German DAX: The DAX exhibits rigid, less fluid price action, but the principle of commonality allows for reliable cross-market tracking. A major trough formed on March 23, aligning with the ASX. Its 18-month trough remains ahead, supporting a long-term bearish framework.

 

DAX (daily candles), March to June 2026: Balanced and orderly. Moving into an 80-day trough,

likely slightly lagging the US, with no clear bearish distortion—expect moderate downside.

However, the DAX appears more neutral than the ASX; its FLD interactions have been clean and balanced, meeting targets with high reliability and no immediate bearish distortion. Following a recent F-category interaction, price is heading lower into an 80-day cycle trough, projected slightly behind the US timeline.

Indian NIFTY-50: The NIFTY remains analytically ambiguous, with the 40-week trough tracking to either February or early April. Shorter-cycle analysis offers some guidance, though low interaction quality (52.4% reliability rating) suggests analytical distortion or heavy interference from longer cycles.

 

NIFTY 50 (daily candles), April to June 2026: Uncertain structure and weak signal quality. Likely a short bounce

from a 40-day trough, then decline into a delayed 80-day trough in June. Key: reclaiming the 20-day FLD.

 

A 40-day trough likely just formed; expect a brief rally toward the 20-day FLD before a deeper decline into an 80-day trough in June—lagging global markets by roughly two weeks. A failure to reclaim the 20-day FLD will signal that this downward leg is already underway.

 

Gold (XAUUSD): Gold remains intermediate-term bearish. While a 40-week trough formed on March 23, a prominent late-January peak continues to exert downward pressure.

 

Gold (daily candles), February to June 2026: Bearish phase intact. Repeated failure of bullish targets

confirms pressure. Now declining into an 80-day trough, potentially forming slightly early.

 
Recent price action confirms this underlying weakness: an FLD upside breakout met its target but lacked follow-through, subsequent rallies have faltered, and recent bullish targets were missed entirely. Following an F-category cross below the 20-day FLD, gold is moving toward an 80-day trough, likely arriving just ahead of late May. 

 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bitcoin closely tracks its composite cycle model. After a bounce off the 40-day trough, price peaked precisely as modeled before reversing. It has since broken below the 20-day FLD in an F-category event, hitting its initial downside target.

 

Bitcoin (daily candles), February to June 2026: Tracking its cycle model. Already in decline

toward a combined 80-day / 20-week trough. Further downside likely before completion.

 
The market is now compressing into a synchronized 80-day and 20-week cycle trough. Because of the larger 20-week cycle's magnitude, this trough should run deeper than the prior 80-day low. Despite realized losses, further downside is expected before the cycle bottoms. 

 

Reference:
David Hickson (May 18, 2026) - 80-Day Cycle Trough Ahead - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

See also:
David Hickson (May 4, 2026) - Markets Diverge as US Entered New Hurst 18-Month Cycle.

Christopher Grafton (May 19, 2026) - The Macro Brief: US Dollar Up (->20D peak). Ten Year Notes Down (->20W trough). 

Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs). 

David Hickson (2014) - The FLD Pullback.

Hedge Funds Dump Tech, While Retail Piles Into QQQ | Jason Goepfert

Hedge funds sold US tech stocks at the second-most aggressive pace in a decade (largest net selling since 2021), according to Goldman Sachs Prime Book data.

Everybody back in the pool: 21-day sum of daily fund flows in QQQ.

 

This institutional selling coincides with strong retail buying, as rolling 21-day QQQ fund flows hit the third-largest inflow in recent years—even as Nasdaq 100 prices rise. A classic smart money versus retail divergence. May 7 (Thu) is the scheduled ITD #5 peak (± 4 CD) in US stocks.

 

Reference:
Jason Goepfert (May 4, 2026) - Funds are selling while retail is buying.

Goldman Sachs Prime Book, as of April 30: Go with the flow.

The GS Prime Book reflects aggregated activity from Goldman's prime brokerage clients (a large but not complete slice of the hedge fund universe), so it's directional but not exhaustive. Similar insights sometimes come from JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley prime services reports. Goepfert specializes in sentiment indicators, including fund flows, options activity, positioning (e.g., hedge funds via prime broker data like Goldman Sachs), and retail vs. institutional behavior (e.g. Dump Money Confidence vs. Smart Money Confidence). Access requires a subscription, but he often shares highlights on X.

 

As of May 1, Dumb Money Confidence was very optimistic,

while Smart Money Confidence was neutral. 

See also:
Alex Krainer (April 27, 2026) - S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism. [May 3 update HERE] 

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - The Wyckoff Method of Trading in Stocks: Accumulation and Distribution Schematics. 

May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

The S&P 500 has posted gains during the first three trading days of May in 19 of the past 28 years.

 

Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

Weakness often emerges around the May 6 (Wed),  May 8-12 (Fri-Tue), and after May 18 (Mon). The final four days usually post solid gains (May 26-29, Tue-Fri), though the last day of May has been notably weak.

 

In midterm election years, May typically starts higher but turns broadly weak by May 5 (Tue), with softness persisting through most of the month.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 1, 2026) - Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024. 

 

S&P 500 Average Performance and Hit Rate per Day (1928-2024). 

   

In the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, May of midterm election years has historically been the weakest,

with all major indices avg. declines: DJIA –0.08%, S&P 500 –0.63%, NASDAQ –0.76%, NYSE –1.19%.

  

Historical S&P 500 data shows May averages just 0.38% gain since 1950 overall, but improves to 2.58% average and

9-1 record in the 10 years with April gains of 5% or higher, including the last seven straight positives post-1985. 

 

When the S&P 500 closes April at a new all-time monthly high since the early 1960s (17 instances shown), 
the remainder of the calendar year has been positive 100% of the time with an average gain of +10.35%. 

 

 

See also: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Alex Krainer (April 27, 2026) - S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism. 

@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886.

Namzes (April 19, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low. 

Nicholas D. Savino (May 2, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for May 2026.