Hurst Time-Price Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

For the S&P 500, the target for the 20-day cycle bottom was 5,812. We are currently in a bearish 80-day cycle, with a downside target set at 4,660. It has been 528 days since the 18-month cycle trough in October 2023. 

 

 S&P 500 (weekly bars).

In both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, the 40-day cycle trough is likely to occur 

next week around April 14-18, and the 18-month cycle trough around mid-May.

The average duration of an 18-month cycle is 546 days, meaning we still have some time before the 18-month cycle trough is expected. We anticipate that this upcoming trough around mid-May will be more significant than a typical 18-month cycle.

 NASDAQ (daily bars).

In the NASDAQ, the situation is similar. We are heading toward a major cycle trough, expected around mid-May. A 40-day cycle trough is likely to occur sometime next week (April 14-18).

Reference:
David Hickson (7 April 2025) - Bear Cycle Targets - Hurst Cycles Market Update (SPX, NDX, ASX, NIFTY-50, GOLD, BTCUSD) (video)

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (April 4, 2025) - DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2.

Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time | Paul Ciana

Bank of America technician Paul Ciana notes that while April has historically been a strong month, "over the last ten years, the SPX trended down in April and bounced back in May," but week 2 of April has been up 72% of the time.

 

 BoA Paul Ciana: Week 2 of April up 72% of the time.

 

S&P 500 (30-Minute Bars).

Hurst's nominal 10-Day Cycle points to a low on Tuesday, April 8 around 8:30 a.m.

Week 3 of the 3-Week Cycle (click HERE).

SPY (Monthly Bars).

42-Month Kitchin Cycle, 18-Month Cycle, Premium-Discount Levels, and Buy Zone. 

Please note, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June;

three monthly pushes from the breakout to the downside (click HERE).

 

J.M. Hurst's Nominal Cycles.

 

VIX (Daily Bars). 

 

S&P 500 vs CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio (Daily Bars EOD).

 CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear.

 

S&P 500 vs CNN Fear & Greed Index:

April 4, 2025 @ 4.27 = lowest since May 11, 2022 @ 4.03. 

 

 Bloomberg: Nasdaq 100 dropped 20% and is now in a Bear Market.

 

BoA Michael Hartnett: S&P 500 buying levels now at 4,800-5,000. 

 

Steve Miller (April 4, 2025) - Stock Market Cycles Analysis (SPX, NDX, VIX, TNX).

S&P 500 vs Blood Indicator (= US 03-Month Treasury Bill / High Yield Spread)

 

And finally, the Ultra Bear Perspective:

 

  » Stop trying to buy the dips. The S&P 500 still has 1500-2000+
points of downside left over the next 2-3 years. «
Trigger Trades, April 4, 2025.

 

See also:

 Jason A. Jankovsky (September 25, 2023) - The Importance of Buy/Sell 50% Retracements.

Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Elliott Wave projection with a final retracement into the end of March, 

followed by a decline into mid-May, below the August 2024 low.

S&P 500 is ready for the next, and final leg up. With price confirming a bullish WXY model at Friday's 5,603 low, I am expecting one more leg up under the 2nd wave targeting 5,750-5,825 to set up for the ultra bearish 3/4/5 wave sequence.

S&P 500 (3-day bars) - Elliott Wave count projecting a decline into late Q1 2026, 

below the October 2023 low.

 

The 16-year rally ended at the 6,147 high with a bearish ending diagonal formation. We're now in the early stages of a catastrophic decline, and price is expected to break this 6-month range escalating much lower. Although I mirrored the path of the 2007-09 crash, this week's rally could easily be the last chance to sell before a 40-60% decline. 

Reference:

Trigger Trades, March 22 & 23, 2025.

 

 

Late-March Rebound: Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen 18 times between March 23 and April 27.
Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023). Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

 

2025 Roadmap for the S&P 500 based on Spectrum Cycle Analysis,

with the ideal Q1 low being March 28, 2025, which will set up the final leg up. 

Namzes on X, January 6, 2025.

 

S&P 500 projection for 2025 (timing, not magnitude) with seasonally strong windows in the bottom panel.

Namzes on X, January 6, 2025.

 

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Kitchin Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

 

Weekly Preview for March 24-28: Short term cycles - early next week 20d low then higher,
Krasi, March 22, 2025.

 80 Day Low in mid March, and 20 Week Low in mid May.

David Hickson (March 10, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update.

 

S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

See also:

¡¡ David Hickson (March 24, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update: Targets and Levels to Watch. (video) !!

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 21, 2025) - End of Q1 – Prone to Volatility and Weakness since 1990.

TPR (March 11, 2025) - S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle.

  Lars von Thienen (December 8, 2024) - The Cliff - Don't Be a Lemming. 

Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.

 TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle

 Current 18-Month Cycle in the S&P 500 (weekly bars, October 2023 to March 2025) and retracement levels.

 

The current 18-month cycle began in October 2023 and is expected to bottom between April and June 2025, likely falling below the August 2024 low and the 50% retracement level. J.M. Hurst's nominal 18-month cycle has an average wavelength of 17.93 months, or 77.98 weeks, or 545 calendar days, which can contract and expand significantly (see table and Hurst chart below). The weekly pattern for March appears to be the X-AMD version, meaning this week should be the month's (re-)accumulation phase (while Martin Armstrong alerted to a "panic cycle").

 

In his latest update, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June, and the current 80-Day Cycle this or next week (CPI, Quad Witching, FOMC Statement; see Hurst chart below). Lately, shorter Hurst cycles in the dollar-priced S&P 500 have been distorted by the significant changes in the EUR/USD valuation.

 

 Note: Hurst's average wavelengths can contract and expand significantly. 

 

David Hickson (March 10, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update. (video)

 

See also:

TPR (March 7, 2025) - The Three Week Cycle, Quarterly Shift, and IPDA Data Ranges.

Robert Miner (2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties. 

 The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 26, 2025) - Beware The Ides of March.

Hurst Cycles Forecast Bearish Q1 for S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

The first quarter of 2025 is expected to be bearish for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Following the 40-day cycle trough observed in early December, the S&P 500 is expected to form a 80-day cycle trough around mid-January, i.e., this week.

 

 

 S&P 500 down into late March or early April.

A significant cycle trough in the first few months of 2025 is anticipated, likely around March or April. The price action as it exits the 80-day cycle trough will be crucial in determining the strength of the recovery or the continuation of the bearish trend.

 NASDAQ down into May.

The NASDAQ's 20-week cycle trough was formed in mid-December, and a significant 18-month cycle trough is expected around May 2025. A weak bounce from this week's low would indicate further bearish movement into May.

Reference:
David Hickson (January 13, 2025) - A Bearish Start to 2025 - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

Memo from the Chief Economist: Lament of a Bear | David Rosenberg

One can reasonably debate whether the stock market has risen exponentially but there is no arguing that the surge in the S&P 500 these past two years has been nothing short of extraordinary. And it has clearly gone much further than I thought it would, especially in these past twelve months, and so at this point, it is worth the time and effort to discuss and interpret the message from the market.
 

 » Smells of capitulation. «

The bottom line: Tip the hat to the bulls who have, after all, been on the right side of the trade, and provide some rationale behind this powerful surge. This is not some attempt at a mea culpa or a throwing in of any towel, as much as the lament of a bear who has come to grips with the premise that while the market has definitely been exuberant, it may not actually be altogether that irrational. Read on.

Quoted from:
David Rosenberg (December 6, 2024) - Memo from the Chief Economist: Lament of a Bear. 

 

See also:

Tom McClellan (December 6, 2024) - Presidential Cycle Effects with a New President.
Steve Miller (December 5, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update.

BlackRock Investment Institute (December 4, 2024) - Due to 'Mega Forces': No More Bust, Only Boom. Outlook 2025.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 4, 2024) - December Stock Market Performance in Election Years. 

Tom DeMark (November 18, 2024) - US Stock Market Nearing a Top Similar to 1929.
Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

D'onte Goodridge (2024) - Structural Characteristics of Bullish and Bearish Months.

S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update | Steve Miller

In early November, both small caps and mid caps took the lead, but they have since paused. Recently, the mega caps have regained leadership, with Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all making sharp moves to the upside. This has contributed to a recent uptick in the S&P 500. On the upside, we have short term resistance levels between 6,073 and 6,176.

S&P 500 (weekly bars), six-month cycles, three-month cycles.

S&P 500 (daily bars), 20-trading day cycle trough is expected on December 7 (±3).

The next 20 trading day cycle low is expected on December 7 (±3 trading days), and the dominant cycle trough is due in late May to June of 2025. The market is clearly in a rising phase, with the weekly trend firmly up. Only a drop below the 5,700 low would shift the market from a bullish cycle structure to a bearish one. On the short-term S&P 500 chart, the current setup resembles Apple’s chart: a bullish, right-hand translation throughout nearly the entire rally.

 

Now there is this very narrow window around December 7 for a pullback. The downside base case would be between 6,025 and 5,963, followed by another move to the upside for a higher high. Overall, this remains a very bullish market during a bullish seasonal period, and fading the trend is not advisable at this time.

Reference:
Steve Miller (December 5, 2024) - US Stock Market - S&P 500 | Price Projections & Timing | Cycle and Chart Analysis. (video)

 

David Hickson (November 25, 2024) - Targets & Levels to Watch - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video) 

 

Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade │ Jeff Hirsch

Thanksgiving [Thursday, November 28] kicks off a run of solid bullish seasonal patterns. November-January is the year’s best consecutive 3-month span (2025 STA p. 149). Then there’s the January Effect (2025 STA p. 112 & 114) of small caps outperforming large caps in January, which begins in mid-December.

 » Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. «

And of course, the "Santa Claus Rally," (2025 STA p. 118) invented and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Almanac. Often confused with any Q4 rally, it is defined as the short, sweet rally that covers the last 5 trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. Yale also coined the phrase: "If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall."

We have combined these seasonal occurrences into a single trade: Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. Since 1950, S&P 500 has been up 79.73% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the 2nd trading day of the year with an average gain of 2.58%. Russell 2000 is up 77.78% of the time since 1979, average gain 3.34%.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 20, 2024) - Feast On Small Caps Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade.

 

 » From November 5 to December 31, the average return of the S&P 500 has been 2.68%; Nasdaq 100 5.53%, 

and Russell 2000 5.7%. In election years S&P 500 3.38%; Nasdaq 100 0.79%, and Russell 2000 7.94%. «

 Goldman Sachs fund flows guru Scott Rubner, November 6, 2024. See also [HERE].

 

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Hurst Cycles; Steve Miller, November 21, 2024. See also [HERE].

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 5, 2024) - Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead.

S&P 500, VIX, MACD, Seasonality, and LT Hurst Cycles Projection

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars). 

 Daily trend is up. Weekly close above monthly R2. Daily NR4. Daily MACD (9,13,9) remains supportive. 

Entering Week 2 of the 3 Week Cycle. Monthly True Open. Top of 20 Trading Day Cycle around November 15-18. 

Major news on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.

Volatility S&P 500 Index (daily bars).
Weekly close at multi-month support; NR7, 2BNR. Reaching for S2, S3 likely.

Jeff Hirsch's November Seasonality during Election Years.

Winter began on November 7; Light Snow on November 22.  

US stock indices may move sideways to up into mid-November.

ChartingCycles, November 6, 2024.

Hurst Cycles Composite Model suggesting the month's swing-high was reached on November 8.

See also: 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns.

S&P 500 vs VIX Put/Call Ratio | Jason Goepfert

Volume in VIX puts was more than two times that of calls on Friday.
That's one of the highest turnovers in 15 years.
It has typically spiked at times of extreme anxiety.

Jason Goepfert, November 4, 2024.

 

 Preliminary CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio on Nov. 4 at 2PM ET 

is officially "pretty far up there".

Tom McClellan, November 4, 2024.

 

 S&P Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections | Steve Miller, November 4, 2024.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars) | November 4, 2024.

Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices | Richard Smith

 NASDAQ (4-hour closes) - at the top of an 82-day cycle swing.

  E-mini S&P 500 (daily closes) - at the top of an 81-day cycle swing.

S&P 500 (weekly closes) 2017-2024 vs. 180-week cycle composites of all major US stock indices.

Reference:
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities endgame? Cycles are screaming caution! (video)

 

Hurst Cycles Market Update — David Hickson, October 28, 2024.

Hurst Cycles in the S&P 500 — David Hickson, October 9, 2024.