Global equity markets are diverging: US indices may have already formed an 18-month cycle trough, while others likely have not. Despite this, all markets are synchronously declining into an 80-day cycle trough expected into late May or early June. S&P 500 and NASDAQ show strong bullish signatures suggesting a possible completed 18-month trough, yet are now rolling into 80-day lows. ASX and DAX still point toward pending 18-month troughs, with ASX clearly bearish and DAX more neutral. Gold is bearish post-January peak, and Bitcoin is descending into a synchronized 80-day / 20-week trough.
S&P 500: A confirmed 20-week cycle trough occurred on March 30 (Mon), potentially aligning with an unconfirmed 18-month cycle trough. In Hurst cycle analysis, tracking shorter cycles allows to infer longer-cycle behavior. To maintain analytical clarity, this update sets aside longer-cycle markers to focus on the confirmed 20-week trough.
On April 29, a 40-day cycle trough formed. Instead of breaking below the 20-day Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) to meet its downside target—as expected under normal conditions—price found support at the FLD. This resilience signals underlying bullishness, likely driven by a high-amplitude 20-week cycle or the larger 18-month cycle trough.
The next major milestone is an 80-day cycle trough projected for late May. Price is currently testing the 20-day FLD in what appears to be an F-category interaction, implying an imminent breakdown toward a downside target. Although recent bullish momentum could truncate this target, an 80-day trough rarely forms at the 20-day FLD level; thus, the base case remains a move lower.
S&P 500 (daily candles), March to June 2026: Downside into an 80-day trough into late May remains the base case.
Prior bullish excess suggests underlying strength, so declines may be muted, but a break below the 20-day FLD is still expected.
[ Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of
each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts. ]
The next major milestone is an 80-day cycle trough projected for late May. Price is currently testing the 20-day FLD in what appears to be an F-category interaction, implying an imminent breakdown toward a downside target. Although recent bullish momentum could truncate this target, an 80-day trough rarely forms at the 20-day FLD level; thus, the base case remains a move lower.
Timing Metrics: 48 days have elapsed since the late-March trough. Given a nominal 80-day wavelength (historically 68 days, but recently averaging 60.5 days), this trough may arrive slightly early, narrowing the target window to late May.
NASDAQ: Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ's 18-month cycle trough lies ahead, highlighting broader long-term uncertainty. However, shorter cycles offer actionable clarity. Following a late-March trough, price crossed above the 20-day FLD and significantly exceeded its upside target, signaling intense bullish momentum.
NASDAQ (daily candles), April to June 2026: Stronger than the S&P, with prior momentum overwhelming
normal cycle behavior. Now rolling into an 80-day decline, likely shallow relative to typical cycle moves.
The 40-day trough likely formed early. Price failed to even retrace to the 20-day FLD during this phase—a classic indication of exceptional strength rather than analytical error. Price is now returning to the 20-day FLD for an F-category interaction. At 48 days post-trough, the NASDAQ is poised to decline into its 80-day cycle trough alongside the S&P 500.
Australian ASX: The ASX anchors the global divergence thesis. Its 18-month cycle trough lies ahead, creating a structurally bearish backdrop. While the 20-week trough occurred slightly ahead of the US and boasts a highly reliable (74.4%) FLD interaction sequence, the index recently failed to reach its upside breakout target.
ASX (daily candles), April to June 2026: Structurally bearish into a pending 18-month trough. Failed upside targets
and expanding cycles confirm weakness. The 80-day trough is imminent or aligns into early June.
An unfulfilled bullish target is a vital diagnostic signal confirming underlying bearish pressure. Furthermore, a displaced nest of lows indicates expanding shorter cycles (delayed troughs), typical of a bearish environment.
Timing Metrics: 56 days have elapsed since the March trough. With recent cycle wavelengths averaging 57.8 days, the 80-day trough is imminent, though global synchronization could defer it to late May or early June.
German DAX: The DAX exhibits rigid, less fluid price action, but the principle of commonality allows for reliable cross-market tracking. A major trough formed on March 23, aligning with the ASX. Its 18-month trough remains ahead, supporting a long-term bearish framework.
DAX (daily candles), March to June 2026: Balanced and orderly. Moving into an 80-day trough,
likely slightly lagging the US, with no clear bearish distortion—expect moderate downside.
However, the DAX appears more neutral than the ASX; its FLD interactions have been clean and balanced, meeting targets with high reliability and no immediate bearish distortion. Following a recent F-category interaction, price is heading lower into an 80-day cycle trough, projected slightly behind the US timeline.
NIFTY 50 (daily candles), April to June 2026: Uncertain structure and weak signal quality. Likely a short bounce
from a 40-day trough, then decline into a delayed 80-day trough in June. Key: reclaiming the 20-day FLD.
A 40-day trough likely just formed; expect a brief rally toward the 20-day FLD before a deeper decline into an 80-day trough in June—lagging global markets by roughly two weeks. A failure to reclaim the 20-day FLD will signal that this downward leg is already underway.
Gold (XAUUSD): Gold remains intermediate-term bearish. While a 40-week trough formed on March 23, a prominent late-January peak continues to exert downward pressure.
Gold (daily candles), February to June 2026: Bearish phase intact. Repeated failure of bullish targets
confirms pressure. Now declining into an 80-day trough, potentially forming slightly early.
Recent price action confirms this underlying weakness: an FLD upside breakout met its target but lacked follow-through, subsequent rallies have faltered, and recent bullish targets were missed entirely. Following an F-category cross below the 20-day FLD, gold is moving toward an 80-day trough, likely arriving just ahead of late May.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bitcoin closely tracks its composite cycle model. After a bounce off the 40-day trough, price peaked precisely as modeled before reversing. It has since broken below the 20-day FLD in an F-category event, hitting its initial downside target.
Bitcoin (daily candles), February to June 2026: Tracking its cycle model. Already in decline
toward a combined 80-day / 20-week trough. Further downside likely before completion.
The market is now compressing into a synchronized 80-day and 20-week cycle trough. Because of the larger 20-week cycle's magnitude, this trough should run deeper than the prior 80-day low. Despite realized losses, further downside is expected before the cycle bottoms.
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