Showing posts with label Stock Market Bubble. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock Market Bubble. Show all posts

Sunday, October 26, 2025

US Economy: A Closed-Loop Scam And AI-Bubble About to Pop? | Bloomberg

The entire US economy right now seems to be seven companies sending a trillion fake dollars back and forth to each other. This isn't a joke. This is actually real, and the AI scam is going to come crashing down. Soon?

The AI Funding Loop Scam and Bubble according to Bloomberg, October 8, 2025.
The AI Funding Loop Scam and Bubble according to Bloomberg, October 8, 2025. 
 
Sooner or later. A Bloomberg diagram (see above on the right) reveals trillions in circular AI deals among tech giants like Nvidia ($4.5T market cap), Microsoft ($3.9T), and OpenAI ($500B valuation). Examples include Nvidia's $100 billion investment in OpenAI and Oracle's $300 billion cloud partnership. This interconnected funding, detailed in Bloomberg's October 8, 2025, report, has fueled a $1 trillion AI market and $192.7 billion in 2025 Venture Capital investments. However, as these mutual deals lack broad economic productivity gains, they raise concerns about a potential bubble.
 
The "Magnificent 7" make up approximately 30% of the S&P 500.
  
The "Magnificent 7" mega-cap tech stocks—Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta , Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—make up approximately 30% of the S&P 500 and have driven most of the index’s recent performance. As of October 26, 2025, their combined market capitalization exceeds $21 trillion, highlighting their outsized global influence. Nvidia leads the group with a $4.535 trillion market cap, driven by AI chip demand, with Apple and Microsoft close behind in the $3.9 trillion range. While Tesla has the lowest capitalization in the group, its explosive one-year growth reflects optimism around EVs and autonomy despite recent volatility.

» We're gonna win so much that you may even get tired of winning! You’ll say: 'Please, please, it’s
too much winning. We can't take it anymore, Mr. President. It’s too much!' And I’ll reply—'No, it isn’t! 
We have to keep winning, we have to win more!' «
 Circus Maximus Ringmaster Narcissus during his presidential election campaign in October 2024.
 
The group's average trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 70 is significantly higher than the S&P 500's average of about 25, signaling substantial bubble risks. Nvidia’s P/E of 53.22 and Tesla’s extremely high 303.30 suggest a premium pricing based on lofty future growth expectations. However, forward P/E ratios, such as Alphabet’s 23.31, indicate potential P/E compression if growth moderates. Alphabet leads the group with a 60.44% one-year return, fueled by ad revenue and AI integrations like Gemini. Tesla's 66.51% one-year gain stands out but is contrasted by a -3.40% daily drop, tied to recent production updates. Year-to-date, Nvidia (+38.73%) and Alphabet (+37.75%) are the top performers, while Amazon (+2.20%) and Apple (+5.32%) have cooled amid broader market rotations.

  
US margin debt reached a record high of $1.13 trillion in September 2025, a 6.3% monthly surge, according to FINRA margin statistics. The Wolf Street chart above shows this leverage at 2% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, surpassing the 1.7% peak seen during the dot-com bubble in March 2000. This metric tracks investor borrowing for stock purchases; historical spikes, such as the 2.5% of market cap level preceding the 2008 financial crisis, have often foreshadowed sharp market corrections, as borrowed funds amplify both rallies and forced selling during downturns.

US margin debt reached a record high of $1.13 trillion in September 2025, a 6.3% monthly surge, according to FINRA margin statistics. The Wolf Street chart above shows this leverage at 2% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, surpassing the 1.7% peak seen during the dot-com bubble in March 2000. This metric tracks investor borrowing for stock purchases; historical spikes, such as the 2.5% of market cap level preceding the 2008 financial crisis, have often foreshadowed sharp market corrections, as borrowed funds amplify both rallies and forced selling during downturns.
 
» As bearish as I want to be, I’d say the odds of any pullback being only a consolidation and not the real reversal are increasing as the next major cycle inflection is early next year. « Tom Pizzuti, October 27, 2025.
»
As bearish as I want to be, I’d say the odds of any pullback being only a consolidation and
not the real reversal are increasing as the next major cycle inflection is early next year. «
Tom Pizzuti, October 27, 2025
 

Monday, December 16, 2024

Sir Isaac Newton's South Sea Bubble Nightmare

In 1720 Isaac Newton had the good fortune to invest early in the South Sea Bubble, making a quick and decent profit. Satisfied with his gains, he exited before the bubble fully inflated. However, as he saw his friends amass incredible wealth, he couldn't resist re-entering the market. In an attempt to make up for lost time, he invested far more—some of it borrowed—and, unfortunately, bought in just before the bubble burst. As the stock plummeted, he lost almost everything, with his investment returning to roughly the value of his initial, smaller stake. It's said that Newton, reflecting on his experience, remarked, "I can calculate the movement of heavenly bodies but not the madness of men."
 
»
There is nothing so disturbing to one's well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich.
« 
 
Sir Isaac reportedly lost the equivalent of $4 to $5 million today, which amounted to almost the entirety of his investment in the South Sea Company. While this was a huge blow to his wealth, it did not leave him destitute, and he still maintained a fortune, though his stake in the company was essentially wiped out, losing around 90% of its value.

Friday, December 6, 2024

Memo from the Chief Economist: Lament of a Bear | David Rosenberg

One can reasonably debate whether the stock market has risen exponentially but there is no arguing that the surge in the S&P 500 these past two years has been nothing short of extraordinary. And it has clearly gone much further than I thought it would, especially in these past twelve months, and so at this point, it is worth the time and effort to discuss and interpret the message from the market.
 
 » Smells of capitulation. «

The bottom line: Tip the hat to the bulls who have, after all, been on the right side of the trade, and provide some rationale behind this powerful surge. This is not some attempt at a mea culpa or a throwing in of any towel, as much as the lament of a bear who has come to grips with the premise that while the market has definitely been exuberant, it may not actually be altogether that irrational. Read on.

 

See also:

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Lulled into Permabull Paradise | Callum Thomas

To put it simply, and probably no one wants to hear it, but this is not a good set up 
— investors and speculators alike have been lulled into permabull paradise.
 Callum Thomas, December 4, 2024.
 
Another ATH (its 56th of the year), and up for the 11th session in 12.
Its daily MACD and RSI pushed further positive.