Showing posts with label Bitcoin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bitcoin. Show all posts

Thursday, January 29, 2026

2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin | Bill Sarubbi

US Stock Market Outlook and Q1 Correction
The equity markets appear to be nearing a significant peak, with a forecasted correction for the S&P 500 expected to intensify during the first week of February. Despite this initial volatility, the year-end target for the S&P remains 10% to 12% higher than current levels around 6,950. 
 
In November, the 15-month midterm election cycle will be the primary rally driver. 
 
2026 Composite Cycle for the S&P 500.

The year is expected to unfold in three phases: a weak first quarter, a sideways trading range through the spring and summer, and a powerful rally in the fourth quarter driven by the historically potent 15-month midterm election cycle.

Long-Term Cycles and Inflationary Pressures
Current economic conditions mirror the 54-year cycle last seen in 1972, characterized by persistent price inflation, social unrest, and rising interest rates. This environment of "excess liquidity" is evidenced by record-breaking prices for collectibles and comic books. Furthermore, the removal of the gold window in 1971 and subsequent monetary acts have removed traditional limits on currency monetization, explaining gold’s ascent toward the $5,000 mark.

Sector Rotation and Technology Moderation
A primary theme for 2026 is the transition of leadership away from the "Magnificent Seven" and toward undervalued sectors. While technology will remain relevant, leadership is shifting to names like Intel and Micron rather than the overextended market leaders. 
 

Capital is expected to flow into healthcare, base materials, and emerging markets, the latter of which are breaking a 15-year relative downtrend against US equities.

Bullish Outlook for Energy and Oil
Oil presents a compelling "witches' brew" of bullish indicators: strong technical support between $50 and $55, extreme bearish sentiment, and favorable seasonal cycles. 
 
 Monthly Crude Oil Cycle.

A rally is anticipated through June, with stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) showing classic technical breakout patterns. This sector stands to benefit most from the rotation of funds out of high-priced mega-cap tech.

Fixed Income, Gold, and Bitcoin
Fixed income remains unattractive, with the 10-year note facing strong seasonal headwinds in March. 
 
10-Year Notes monthly histogram.
 
Gold.

Gold has exceeded recent objectives but is entering a seasonally weak period through March, with a projected short-term top near February 20. 
 
 Bitcoin.

Conversely, Bitcoin continues to adhere closely to its cyclical data, suggesting a potential rally toward the $110,000 to $115,000 range by April.

 
See also: 
Bill Sarubbi (b. 1949), writing under the pen name Bill Meridian, is an American financial strategist, author, and software developer who pioneered the integration of mundane astrology into institutional investment. After earning both a BS in Banking and an MBA in Corporate Finance from New York University in 1972, he launched a dual career on Wall Street while beginning his formal astrological studies. Sarubbi transformed the field in 1983 by designing AstroAnalyst, the first software to apply computer processing to financial astrology. His technical innovations—including efficiency tests and composite cycles—remain foundational to modern platforms such as Timing Solution. Parallel to his financial pursuits, he spent seven years in New York City training as a bioenergetic therapist under Dr. John Pierrakos. From 1990 to 2004, Sarubbi was based in Abu Dhabi (UAE), where he served as a Technology Fund Manager and Strategist for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA). During his tenure at the sovereign wealth fund, he also sat on its Currency Hedging Committee. Throughout this period, he maintained his pen identity as "Bill Meridian," advising legendary trader Frankie Joe and authoring the mundane and stocks column for Dell Horoscope for 30 years. A certified expert in Uranian and Vibrational Astrology, Sarubbi has authored several definitive texts, including 'Planetary Stock Trading' and 'The Predictive Power of Eclipse Paths.' Since 2000, he has operated Cycles Research Investments from Vienna, Austria, providing market advisory and fund management services that blend rigorous economic cycle analysis with astrological forecasting.
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Monday, January 12, 2026

Bitcoin: A Deep Dive into Hurst Cycles | David Hickson

Looking at the monthly chart for Bitcoin dating back to 2014 (chart 1), we observe the long-term cycle structure. The 54-month cycle (orange) contains three 18-month cycles (yellow), creating a 3:1 harmonic ratio. 

Chart 1: Bitcoin (monthly candles), 2014 to January 2026.

Our current analysis identifies 54-month cycle troughs in December 2018 and November 2022. We are now in the third 18-month cycle of this 54-month period, which is exerting downward pressure toward a major trough expected in early 2027 (chart 2).  
  
 Chart 2: Bitcoin (weekly candles), 2022 to January 2026.
  
Based on the Composite Model Line (dashed orange line on chart 2), we are assuming an 18-month trough has formed on November 21, 2025. The timing is nearly perfect, occurring 1,092 days—exactly two average 18-month cycles—after the November 2022 low (chart 4).
 
 Chart 3: Bitcoin (weekly candles), 2025 to January 2026.
 
 Chart 4: Bitcoin (daily candles), 2022 to January 2026.
 
However, the subsequent price action has been insufficiently bullish to confirm this bottom definitively (charts 4 and 5).  

Chart 5: Bitcoin (daily candles), November 2025 to January 2026.

The market currently faces a pivotal technical junction at the 20-week FLD. A successful cross above the FLD within the next fortnight would validate the November trough; conversely, resistance at the FLD line would indicate the 18-month low is delayed until February or March 2026 (chart 5). 
 
In the immediate term, Bitcoin is navigating an 80-day cycle trough expected this week, currently tracking a downside target of approximately $86,760 (chart 5). 
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Thursday, December 18, 2025

Upcoming 40-Day Hurst Cycle Troughs: SPX, NDX, Crude Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

S&P 500 (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough ideally due December 23 (Tue)(± 5.49 CD). 
While the 20-week, 40-week, and 18-month cycles all remain in decline, a choppy counter-trend Santa Claus rally of uncertain
magnitude is expected into year-end early-January 2026 (see 'Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle' below). 
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026. 
[Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of
each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts.] 
 
 Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle.
 

DJIA / CPI (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1940-2025).
 
 NASDAQ (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).
 
 NASDAQ (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 23 (Tue). 
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026.  
 
 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).
 
 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Current 18-Month Cycle (October 2024-December 2025).
 
Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 19-21 (Fri-Sun). One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month
cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around February 17 (Tue), 2026.  
 
 Gold (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1995-2025).
 
 Gold (daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 28 (Sun) and January 5 (Mon), 2026. 
One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycle troughs 
are currently projected to around late February-mid March 2026. 
 
 Bitcoin (daily bars, log-scale): Long-Term Cycles (2010-2025).
 
 Bitcoin (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 20 (Sat).
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 19 (Mon), 2026. 

[Cycle Analysis as of December 18, 2025 | 11:00 a.m. EST] 
 
See also:
  
Principles of Commonality and Variation.
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Monday, December 15, 2025

Hurst Cycles Market Update and Outlook into Early 2026 | David Hickson

This is our final market update for the year, reviewing our usual set of instruments (SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, Gold, BTCUSD) and outlining what to expect as we move into 2026.
 
S&P 500: The S&P 500 is advancing out of a November 21 trough that is definitively an 80-day cycle low and remains a viable candidate for a completed 40-week cycle trough. This advance is occurring within the larger context of an April 2025 trough phased as at least an 18-month cycle low, which continues to dominate the intermediate trend. Price behavior has been consistently bullish: clean crossings above the 20-day FLD, achievement of FLD targets, and successful defense of the 20-day FLD during the most recent 20-day trough (Dec 10). No bearish structural behavior has emerged to invalidate the 40-week trough interpretation.
 
S&P 500: The S&P 500 is advancing out of a November 21 trough that is definitively an 80-day cycle low and remains a viable candidate for a completed 40-week cycle trough. This advance is occurring within the larger context of an April 2025 trough phased as at least an 18-month cycle low, which continues to dominate the intermediate trend. Price behavior has been consistently bullish: clean crossings above the 20-day FLD, achievement of FLD targets, and successful defense of the 20-day FLD during the most recent 20-day trough (Dec 10). No bearish structural behavior has emerged to invalidate the 40-week trough interpretation. Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 40-week, and higher-order cycles of each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts. A 40-day cycle trough is expected into late December (± Dec 26-29), likely producing a shallow pullback. This should be followed by another advance before a larger corrective phase into an 80-day or 40-week trough in late January or early February (± Jan 30-Feb 6). Unless bearish confirmation appears, that trough is expected to be corrective rather than trend-ending, with the larger structure remaining bullish.
 Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of
each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts. 
 
A 40-day cycle trough is expected into late December (± Dec 26-29), likely producing a shallow pullback. This should be followed by another advance before a larger corrective phase into an 80-day or 40-week trough in late January or early February (± Jan 30-Feb 6). Unless bearish confirmation appears, that trough is expected to be corrective rather than trend-ending, with the larger structure remaining bullish.
 
NASDAQ: The NASDAQ shares the same broad cycle architecture as the S&P 500, with a confirmed 80-day trough on November 21 and the unresolved question of whether the 40-week trough is already in place or still ahead. However, relative weakness is evident: price has struggled to remain above the 20-day FLD, and short-term momentum is softer. The orange dashed composite model line reflects this by projecting a deeper decline into the next larger trough compared with the S&P 500.
 
NASDAQ: The NASDAQ shares the same broad cycle architecture as the S&P 500, with a confirmed 80-day trough on November 21 and the unresolved question of whether the 40-week trough is already in place or still ahead. However, relative weakness is evident: price has struggled to remain above the 20-day FLD, and short-term momentum is softer. The orange dashed composite model line reflects this by projecting a deeper decline into the next larger trough compared with the S&P 500. A 40-day trough is expected near year-end or early January, followed by a decline into an 80-day trough in late January or early February. If downside pressure increases meaningfully, that later trough may resolve as the 40-week cycle low. Synchronization with the S&P 500 remains the dominant expectation.

A 40-day trough is expected near year-end or early January, followed by a decline into an 80-day trough in late January or early February. If downside pressure increases meaningfully, that later trough may resolve as the 40-week cycle low. Synchronization with the S&P 500 remains the dominant expectation.
 
Australian ASX: The ASX also shows a November 21 trough that could be either an 80-day or a 40-week cycle low, but unlike U.S. indices, price action has failed to confirm bullish intent. The market crossed above the 20-day FLD but did not achieve its projected upside target, and subsequent price action has been weak. While the 20-day trough found approximate FLD support, the amplitude and momentum are noticeably inferior, introducing bearish risk.
 
Australian ASX: The ASX also shows a November 21 trough that could be either an 80-day or a 40-week cycle low, but unlike U.S. indices, price action has failed to confirm bullish intent. The market crossed above the 20-day FLD but did not achieve its projected upside target, and subsequent price action has been weak. While the 20-day trough found approximate FLD support, the amplitude and momentum are noticeably inferior, introducing bearish risk. A 40-day trough is expected into late December, followed by a more important trough in late January or early February. Given current behavior, the probability is increasing that this later trough resolves as a 40-week cycle low. A decisive bearish turn in the ASX would materially strengthen the global commonality case for a synchronized 40-week trough.

A 40-day trough is expected into late December, followed by a more important trough in late January or early February. Given current behavior, the probability is increasing that this later trough resolves as a 40-week cycle low. A decisive bearish turn in the ASX would materially strengthen the global commonality case for a synchronized 40-week trough.
 
German DAX: The DAX cycle labeling is less precise, but price action provides important guidance. The November 21 low has been phased as a 40-day trough but sits close to the projected positions of the 20-week and 40-week cycles. Despite analytical ambiguity, price crossed above the 20-day FLD, achieved its target, and remains above short-term support—behavior more consistent with a market that has already completed a larger-degree trough.
 
German DAX: The DAX cycle labeling is less precise, but price action provides important guidance. The November 21 low has been phased as a 40-day trough but sits close to the projected positions of the 20-week and 40-week cycles. Despite analytical ambiguity, price crossed above the 20-day FLD, achieved its target, and remains above short-term support—behavior more consistent with a market that has already completed a larger-degree trough. A pullback into a late-December 40-day trough is expected, with another due toward late January. Unless price begins to display clear bearish characteristics, the evidence favors the interpretation that the 40-week trough formed in November, implying that forthcoming declines should remain corrective.

A pullback into a late-December 40-day trough is expected, with another due toward late January. Unless price begins to display clear bearish characteristics, the evidence favors the interpretation that the 40-week trough formed in November, implying that forthcoming declines should remain corrective.
 
Indian NIFTY: The NIFTY exhibits one of the clearest cycle structures. A 20-week trough occurred in early August, followed by an 80-day trough in early November. Recent price action suggests a 40-day trough has just formed near the projected centers of both the 20-week and 40-week cycles, raising the possibility that the larger cycle trough has already occurred. The current advance is consistent with a market rebounding from a significant cycle low.
 
Indian NIFTY: The NIFTY exhibits one of the clearest cycle structures. A 20-week trough occurred in early August, followed by an 80-day trough in early November. Recent price action suggests a 40-day trough has just formed near the projected centers of both the 20-week and 40-week cycles, raising the possibility that the larger cycle trough has already occurred. The current advance is consistent with a market rebounding from a significant cycle low. Price is expected to cross and hold above the 20-day FLD and achieve its upside target. If the 40-week trough is already in place, the coming weeks should remain upward-biased. Risk only increases if the advance fails and the cycle structure shifts into a bearish-shaped configuration toward year-end.

Price is expected to cross and hold above the 20-day FLD and achieve its upside target. If the 40-week trough is already in place, the coming weeks should remain upward-biased. Risk only increases if the advance fails and the cycle structure shifts into a bearish-shaped configuration toward year-end.
 
Gold: Gold is operating within a structurally bullish environment despite uncertainty surrounding a possible 54-month cycle peak in October. Price action since that peak has challenged its validity, suggesting either that the peak was misidentified or that longer-degree bullish cycles (9-year, 18-year) are overwhelming it. Trough behavior has been exemplary, with repeated successful interactions with the 20-day FLD, including support during the most recent 40-day trough.
 
Gold: Gold is operating within a structurally bullish environment despite uncertainty surrounding a possible 54-month cycle peak in October. Price action since that peak has challenged its validity, suggesting either that the peak was misidentified or that longer-degree bullish cycles (9-year, 18-year) are overwhelming it. Trough behavior has been exemplary, with repeated successful interactions with the 20-day FLD, including support during the most recent 40-day trough. Gold is likely to retest or exceed the October highs before encountering its next significant corrective phase. The next major timing window is the 20-week cycle trough expected in the third week of January, which should be monitored closely for trend continuation or structural change.

Gold is likely to retest or exceed the October highs before encountering its next significant corrective phase. The next major timing window is the 20-week cycle trough expected in the third week of January, which should be monitored closely for trend continuation or structural change.
 
Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s November 21 low is currently labeled as an 80-day trough, but it remains a candidate for a larger 18-month cycle trough. Unlike equities, Bitcoin has not displayed strong post-trough bullish expansion. Price has struggled to hold above the 20-day FLD, and recent action shows mild bearish leakage below it, keeping the larger trough question unresolved.
 
Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s November 21 low is currently labeled as an 80-day trough, but it remains a candidate for a larger 18-month cycle trough. Unlike equities, Bitcoin has not displayed strong post-trough bullish expansion. Price has struggled to hold above the 20-day FLD, and recent action shows mild bearish leakage below it, keeping the larger trough question unresolved. Focus is now on the development of the next 40-day cycle trough. Continued weakness would increase the likelihood that the true 18-month trough still lies ahead. Until stronger bullish confirmation appears, Bitcoin should be treated as structurally uncertain rather than trend-confirmed.

Focus is now on the development of the next 40-day cycle trough. Continued weakness would increase the likelihood that the true 18-month trough still lies ahead. Until stronger bullish confirmation appears, Bitcoin should be treated as structurally uncertain rather than trend-confirmed.
 
Reference:
 
See also:
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Wednesday, December 3, 2025

S&P 500 Now Declining into 18-Month Hurst Cycle Low | Ahmed Farghaly

Major asset classes (equities, metals, cryptos) are entering the final phase of their current 18-month cycles (beige-yellow in first chart below), with synchronized troughs expected from late January into early March 2026. 

S&P 500 / US Equities: The August 2024 trough is identified as the 54-month cycle low. The brief break beneath it in April 2025 is viewed as a false Trump—“Liberation Day”—Tariff straddle and the first 40-week/9-month cycle trough within the current 18-month cycle. Since that time, price action has built a clean sequence of 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, and 20-week cycles. 

S&P 500 (daily closes); 2020 to December 2025: The Big Picture. 
 
S&P 500 (daily bars); September to December 2025: Last stage of the 18-month cycle.
The current 20-day cycle (magenta) ideally bottoms on December 7 (Sun), and the 40-day cycle (red) on December 23 (Tue).
 
The market has completed the latest 80-day trough on November 21 (Fri) and has now entered the final 80-day cycle before the 18-month (beige-yellow) low, which is due around mid to late January 2026 (second chart above). A rally out of the 80-day cycle low into December, but without a new all-time high, was expected because the broken 20-week VTL typically marks the 40-week peak (see first chart). 
 
An early December high remains likely before a meaningful decline into the 18-month trough. This forthcoming weakness is regarded as a mid-cycle correction within the still-intact 54-month cycle upswing. Strong gains are projected for Q2–Q3 2026 as the new 18-month cycle rises.

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (December 1, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update: S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, CRB Index, Interest Rates, Bitcoin. (video)


See also:
David Hickson (December 1, 2025) - Bullish or Bearish? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)
 
High-Confidence Position Trading: Dow Jones Industrials
divided by Consumer Price Index, 1942 to 2025, and Forecast into 2037.
 
» A "straddle" is an analysis period that has its high above the FLD and its low below. «
(Cyclitec Cycles Course: Lesson 8, p. 8-14; Lesson 9, p. 9-11; Appendix C, Chart #47).
A "false straddle" is caused by an exogenous shock—an abrupt, unpredictable event originating outside the market's endogenous cyclic structure—that temporarily disrupts the established hierarchy of cycles, such as the March 2020 COVID-19 pandemic crash or the April 2025 announcement of Trump's global "Liberation Day” tariffs crash.
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