Showing posts with label Cyclic Theory. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cyclic Theory. Show all posts

Thursday, December 18, 2025

Upcoming 40-Day Hurst Cycle Troughs: SPX, NDX, Crude Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

S&P 500 (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough ideally due December 23 (Tue)(± 5.49 CD). 
While the 20-week, 40-week, and 18-month cycles all remain in decline, a choppy counter-trend Santa Claus rally of uncertain
magnitude is expected into year-end early-January 2026 (see 'Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle' below). 
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026. 
[Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of
each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts.] 
 
 Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle.
 

DJIA / CPI (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1940-2025).
 
 NASDAQ (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).
 
 NASDAQ (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 23 (Tue). 
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026.  
 
 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).
 
 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Current 18-Month Cycle (October 2024-December 2025).
 
Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 19-21 (Fri-Sun). One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month
cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around February 17 (Tue), 2026.  
 
 Gold (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1995-2025).
 
 Gold (daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 28 (Sun) and January 5 (Mon), 2026. 
One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycle troughs 
are currently projected to around late February-mid March 2026. 
 
 Bitcoin (daily bars, log-scale): Long-Term Cycles (2010-2025).
 
 Bitcoin (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 20 (Sat).
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 19 (Mon), 2026. 

[Cycle Analysis as of December 18, 2025 | 11:00 a.m. EST] 
 
See also:
  
Principles of Commonality and Variation.
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Monday, December 15, 2025

Hurst Cycles Market Update and Outlook into Early 2026 | David Hickson

This is our final market update for the year, reviewing our usual set of instruments (SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, Gold, BTCUSD) and outlining what to expect as we move into 2026.
 
S&P 500: The S&P 500 is advancing out of a November 21 trough that is definitively an 80-day cycle low and remains a viable candidate for a completed 40-week cycle trough. This advance is occurring within the larger context of an April 2025 trough phased as at least an 18-month cycle low, which continues to dominate the intermediate trend. Price behavior has been consistently bullish: clean crossings above the 20-day FLD, achievement of FLD targets, and successful defense of the 20-day FLD during the most recent 20-day trough (Dec 10). No bearish structural behavior has emerged to invalidate the 40-week trough interpretation.
 
S&P 500: The S&P 500 is advancing out of a November 21 trough that is definitively an 80-day cycle low and remains a viable candidate for a completed 40-week cycle trough. This advance is occurring within the larger context of an April 2025 trough phased as at least an 18-month cycle low, which continues to dominate the intermediate trend. Price behavior has been consistently bullish: clean crossings above the 20-day FLD, achievement of FLD targets, and successful defense of the 20-day FLD during the most recent 20-day trough (Dec 10). No bearish structural behavior has emerged to invalidate the 40-week trough interpretation. Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 40-week, and higher-order cycles of each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts. A 40-day cycle trough is expected into late December (± Dec 26-29), likely producing a shallow pullback. This should be followed by another advance before a larger corrective phase into an 80-day or 40-week trough in late January or early February (± Jan 30-Feb 6). Unless bearish confirmation appears, that trough is expected to be corrective rather than trend-ending, with the larger structure remaining bullish.
 Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of
each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts. 
 
A 40-day cycle trough is expected into late December (± Dec 26-29), likely producing a shallow pullback. This should be followed by another advance before a larger corrective phase into an 80-day or 40-week trough in late January or early February (± Jan 30-Feb 6). Unless bearish confirmation appears, that trough is expected to be corrective rather than trend-ending, with the larger structure remaining bullish.
 
NASDAQ: The NASDAQ shares the same broad cycle architecture as the S&P 500, with a confirmed 80-day trough on November 21 and the unresolved question of whether the 40-week trough is already in place or still ahead. However, relative weakness is evident: price has struggled to remain above the 20-day FLD, and short-term momentum is softer. The orange dashed composite model line reflects this by projecting a deeper decline into the next larger trough compared with the S&P 500.
 
NASDAQ: The NASDAQ shares the same broad cycle architecture as the S&P 500, with a confirmed 80-day trough on November 21 and the unresolved question of whether the 40-week trough is already in place or still ahead. However, relative weakness is evident: price has struggled to remain above the 20-day FLD, and short-term momentum is softer. The orange dashed composite model line reflects this by projecting a deeper decline into the next larger trough compared with the S&P 500. A 40-day trough is expected near year-end or early January, followed by a decline into an 80-day trough in late January or early February. If downside pressure increases meaningfully, that later trough may resolve as the 40-week cycle low. Synchronization with the S&P 500 remains the dominant expectation.

A 40-day trough is expected near year-end or early January, followed by a decline into an 80-day trough in late January or early February. If downside pressure increases meaningfully, that later trough may resolve as the 40-week cycle low. Synchronization with the S&P 500 remains the dominant expectation.
 
Australian ASX: The ASX also shows a November 21 trough that could be either an 80-day or a 40-week cycle low, but unlike U.S. indices, price action has failed to confirm bullish intent. The market crossed above the 20-day FLD but did not achieve its projected upside target, and subsequent price action has been weak. While the 20-day trough found approximate FLD support, the amplitude and momentum are noticeably inferior, introducing bearish risk.
 
Australian ASX: The ASX also shows a November 21 trough that could be either an 80-day or a 40-week cycle low, but unlike U.S. indices, price action has failed to confirm bullish intent. The market crossed above the 20-day FLD but did not achieve its projected upside target, and subsequent price action has been weak. While the 20-day trough found approximate FLD support, the amplitude and momentum are noticeably inferior, introducing bearish risk. A 40-day trough is expected into late December, followed by a more important trough in late January or early February. Given current behavior, the probability is increasing that this later trough resolves as a 40-week cycle low. A decisive bearish turn in the ASX would materially strengthen the global commonality case for a synchronized 40-week trough.

A 40-day trough is expected into late December, followed by a more important trough in late January or early February. Given current behavior, the probability is increasing that this later trough resolves as a 40-week cycle low. A decisive bearish turn in the ASX would materially strengthen the global commonality case for a synchronized 40-week trough.
 
German DAX: The DAX cycle labeling is less precise, but price action provides important guidance. The November 21 low has been phased as a 40-day trough but sits close to the projected positions of the 20-week and 40-week cycles. Despite analytical ambiguity, price crossed above the 20-day FLD, achieved its target, and remains above short-term support—behavior more consistent with a market that has already completed a larger-degree trough.
 
German DAX: The DAX cycle labeling is less precise, but price action provides important guidance. The November 21 low has been phased as a 40-day trough but sits close to the projected positions of the 20-week and 40-week cycles. Despite analytical ambiguity, price crossed above the 20-day FLD, achieved its target, and remains above short-term support—behavior more consistent with a market that has already completed a larger-degree trough. A pullback into a late-December 40-day trough is expected, with another due toward late January. Unless price begins to display clear bearish characteristics, the evidence favors the interpretation that the 40-week trough formed in November, implying that forthcoming declines should remain corrective.

A pullback into a late-December 40-day trough is expected, with another due toward late January. Unless price begins to display clear bearish characteristics, the evidence favors the interpretation that the 40-week trough formed in November, implying that forthcoming declines should remain corrective.
 
Indian NIFTY: The NIFTY exhibits one of the clearest cycle structures. A 20-week trough occurred in early August, followed by an 80-day trough in early November. Recent price action suggests a 40-day trough has just formed near the projected centers of both the 20-week and 40-week cycles, raising the possibility that the larger cycle trough has already occurred. The current advance is consistent with a market rebounding from a significant cycle low.
 
Indian NIFTY: The NIFTY exhibits one of the clearest cycle structures. A 20-week trough occurred in early August, followed by an 80-day trough in early November. Recent price action suggests a 40-day trough has just formed near the projected centers of both the 20-week and 40-week cycles, raising the possibility that the larger cycle trough has already occurred. The current advance is consistent with a market rebounding from a significant cycle low. Price is expected to cross and hold above the 20-day FLD and achieve its upside target. If the 40-week trough is already in place, the coming weeks should remain upward-biased. Risk only increases if the advance fails and the cycle structure shifts into a bearish-shaped configuration toward year-end.

Price is expected to cross and hold above the 20-day FLD and achieve its upside target. If the 40-week trough is already in place, the coming weeks should remain upward-biased. Risk only increases if the advance fails and the cycle structure shifts into a bearish-shaped configuration toward year-end.
 
Gold: Gold is operating within a structurally bullish environment despite uncertainty surrounding a possible 54-month cycle peak in October. Price action since that peak has challenged its validity, suggesting either that the peak was misidentified or that longer-degree bullish cycles (9-year, 18-year) are overwhelming it. Trough behavior has been exemplary, with repeated successful interactions with the 20-day FLD, including support during the most recent 40-day trough.
 
Gold: Gold is operating within a structurally bullish environment despite uncertainty surrounding a possible 54-month cycle peak in October. Price action since that peak has challenged its validity, suggesting either that the peak was misidentified or that longer-degree bullish cycles (9-year, 18-year) are overwhelming it. Trough behavior has been exemplary, with repeated successful interactions with the 20-day FLD, including support during the most recent 40-day trough. Gold is likely to retest or exceed the October highs before encountering its next significant corrective phase. The next major timing window is the 20-week cycle trough expected in the third week of January, which should be monitored closely for trend continuation or structural change.

Gold is likely to retest or exceed the October highs before encountering its next significant corrective phase. The next major timing window is the 20-week cycle trough expected in the third week of January, which should be monitored closely for trend continuation or structural change.
 
Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s November 21 low is currently labeled as an 80-day trough, but it remains a candidate for a larger 18-month cycle trough. Unlike equities, Bitcoin has not displayed strong post-trough bullish expansion. Price has struggled to hold above the 20-day FLD, and recent action shows mild bearish leakage below it, keeping the larger trough question unresolved.
 
Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s November 21 low is currently labeled as an 80-day trough, but it remains a candidate for a larger 18-month cycle trough. Unlike equities, Bitcoin has not displayed strong post-trough bullish expansion. Price has struggled to hold above the 20-day FLD, and recent action shows mild bearish leakage below it, keeping the larger trough question unresolved. Focus is now on the development of the next 40-day cycle trough. Continued weakness would increase the likelihood that the true 18-month trough still lies ahead. Until stronger bullish confirmation appears, Bitcoin should be treated as structurally uncertain rather than trend-confirmed.

Focus is now on the development of the next 40-day cycle trough. Continued weakness would increase the likelihood that the true 18-month trough still lies ahead. Until stronger bullish confirmation appears, Bitcoin should be treated as structurally uncertain rather than trend-confirmed.
 
Reference:
 
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Friday, October 24, 2025

J.M. Hurst’s "Principle of Commonality": One Divine Force | Ahmed Farghaly

The "Cyclic Principles" introduced by J.M. Hurst in the 1970s are universal, persisting since the dawn of time. Among these, the "Principle of Commonality" stands out, as it demonstrates that the cycles of disparate financial instruments—and, by extension, human activity—are synchronized by a singular, overarching divine force. Troughs of unrelated instruments occur almost simultaneously, while divergences in peaks or amplitudes stem from local or company-specific factors rather than the underlying rhythm.

» The Principle of Commonality assures us that identical specific and forecastable wave processes occur in all negotiable equities of all types on all markets of the world. So all-pervasive is this Principle that it is only the Principle of Variation that prevents the shape of price histories of all equities from being nearly identical. And, as we have seen, it is the interaction of fundamental events and situations with cyclicality, causing wave amplitude change, that is responsible for the Principle of Variation. «
» The Principle of Commonality assures us that identical specific and forecastable wave processes occur in all negotiable equities of all types on all markets of the world. So all-pervasive is this Principle that it is only the Principle of Variation that prevents the shape of price histories of all equities from being nearly identical. And, as we have seen, it is the interaction of fundamental events and situations with cyclicality, causing wave amplitude change, that is responsible for the Principle of Variation. 
» A Commonality Phasing Model is, in effect, a large measuring strip used to preserve wave phase and period information from the analysis of two or more equities. Only the most certain of the wave trough locations are used from any given analysis. As results are added from analysis of more and more equities, gaps are filled in and a commonality distribution range is established for each wave trough position in time. A commonality phasing model can be maintained continuously, thus recording the most definitive evidence of wave phase and period from all analyses conducted. « The Principle of Commonality, J.M. Hurst, 1973.
» A Commonality Phasing Model is, in effect, a large measuring strip used to preserve wave phase and period information from the analysis of two or more equities. Only the most certain of the wave trough locations are used from any given analysis. As results are added from analysis of more and more equities, gaps are filled in and a commonality distribution range is established for each wave trough position in time. A commonality phasing model can be maintained continuously, thus recording the most definitive evidence of wave phase and period from all analyses conducted. «
The Principle of Commonality, J.M. Hurst, 1973. 
Hurst emphasized its practical value: understanding one cycle illuminates others, with minor deviations—his third type of the Principle of Variation [each market’s active cycles deviate from the nominal model’s average periods, and these deviations differ across instruments and times]—leaving global synchronization intact as dictated by the Principle of Commonality. Empirical studies across unrelated assets, commodities, equities, and economic time series confirm that the Principle of Commonality governs beyond any single economy, reflecting a universal rhythm and mirroring humanity’s progression from polytheism toward recognition of a monotheistic, single guiding influence.
 
“And your God is one God. There is no deity except Him, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.”
The Holy Qur’an, Surah Al-Baqarah (The Cow), 2:163.
  
The persistence of cyclical waves through recorded history suggests that Commonality is trans-historical. Data since around 1000 AD reveal continuous alignment, and extrapolation indicates these forces existed long before formal record-keeping. Historical observation supports this: human advancement in the Stone and Bronze Ages unfolded in temporal synchrony across disconnected populations, indicating the operation of the consistent underlying divine force.
 
“For every nation is an appointed term; when their term is reached,
neither can they delay it nor can they advance it an hour or a moment.” 
The Holy Qur’an, Surah Al-A‘rāf (The Heights), 7:34. 
 
While troughs—the beginnings and endings of cycles—are closely aligned across nations, local expression varies. Peaks may occur at different times, amplitudes differ, and local fundamentals shape trajectories. The Principle of Commonality thus governs temporal alignment of critical points while allowing variation in the wave’s characteristics.
 
Chart 1: Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul; magenta) versus Dow Jones (DJIA) from 2000 to 2025.
Chart 1: Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul; magenta) versus Dow Jones (DJIA) from 2000 to 2025.

Empirical evidence validates these assertions. The Kuznets Swing (an 18-year cycle) peaked in 2006 in Saudi Arabia and in 2019 in the United States, yet both began in March 2003 and bottomed in the global low of March 2020. Minor discrepancies among sub-waves reflect local variation but do not disrupt the synchronization of primary troughs (see chart 1 above).
 
Chart 2: S&P 500 (red) versus Commodity Price Index from 1789 to 2025.
 Chart 2.1: Commodity Price Index and S&P 500, both from 1800 to 2025.
 
Chart 2: S&P 500 (red) versus Commodity Price Index from 1789 to 2025.
Chart 2.2: S&P 500 (red) versus Commodity Price Index from 1800 to 2025.

Longer-term studies, including continuous commodity prices and the S&P 500 since 1800, show that over 90 percent of cyclical troughs align temporally across instruments (see charts 2.1 and 2.2 above). 

Chart 3: Soybeans (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 2000 to 2025.
Chart 3: Soybeans (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 2011 to 2025.

Chart 4: German Dax (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 1980 to 2025.
Chart 4: German Dax (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 1994 to 2003.

Even unrelated markets, such as soybean prices and the Saudi stock index (Tadawul), demonstrate strong temporal correspondence (chart 3 above). Comparisons of the German DAX and Saudi index (chart 4 above) reveal synchronization across multiple cyclic levels—the 18-month, 54-month (Kitchin), and 9-year (Juglar) waves—further confirming a unifying global force.
 
“And all the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing: and He doeth according to His will in the army of heaven, and among the inhabitants of the earth: and none can stay His hand, or say unto Him, What doest Thou?” The Holy Bible, Daniel 4:35 (KJV).
 Prophet Daniel (Daniyal) in the Lions' Den (Daniel 6:16–23, KJV).
“And all the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing: and He doeth according to His will
in the army of heaven, and among the inhabitants of the earth: and none can stay His hand,
or say unto Him, What doest Thou?” The Holy Bible, Daniel 4:35 (KJV). 
 
Hurst’s Principle of Commonality thus affirms a single, synchronized force governing the timing of major and minor cycles, while local factors shape amplitude and peak positions. This robust alignment, persistent across centuries and diverse instruments, confirms that cyclical patterns are not random but manifestations of an underlying order.

“Is He not best who begins creation and then repeats it, and who provides for you from the heaven and the earth? Is there a deity with Allah? Say, ‘Produce your proof, if you should be truthful.’” The Holy Qur’an, Surah An-Naml (The Ants), 27:64.
“Is He not best who begins creation and then repeats it, and who provides for you from the heaven
and the earth? Is there a deity with Allah? Say, ‘Produce your proof, if you should be truthful.’” 
The Holy Qur’an, Surah An-Naml (The Ants), 27:64.
 
Today, we can confidently state that in this article we have presented our proof of a mysterious, dominant, and single force behind almost all fluctuations in human affairs. We can only ask God to grant us wisdom to recognize His design and join us with the righteous after we fulfill our appointed term in harmony with His will.
 
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Monday, October 20, 2025

Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500 and Bitcoin; Focus on Gold | David Hickson

S&P 500: In previous updates we noted that the 20-week cycle trough likely formed on September 2, consistent with similar lows across global equity markets within a few days of that date. We discussed the probability that a minor low on September 25 represented the 20-day cycle trough. 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from late August to December 2025: Rebounding from 40-day trough, likely forming a 40- or 80-day peak —possibly at a marginal new high—before turning lower toward 80-day trough in November. Caution warranted as stock markets transition into broader bearish phase.
S&P 500 (daily bars) from late August to December 2025: 
Rebounding from 40-day trough, likely forming a 40- or 80-day peak —possibly at a marginal new high—before turning lower toward 80-day trough in November (Oct 10 + 37.2 CD = Nov 16 (Sun) ±). Market now in bearish phase into early Jan 2026.

The expected 40-day cycle trough appears to have occurred on October 10, driven by a sharp, news-related decline. This does not signal a larger-degree trough, but reflects the timing of external events with the 40-day low. Price has since bounced above the 20-day FLD, suggesting a short-term upside, possibly a marginal new high. Looking ahead, we anticipate an 80-day cycle trough in November, while the broader trend remains bearish into a major longer-term cycle low in early 2026.

Bitcoin formed a 20-week cycle trough on September 1, but its subsequent structure has been bearish. The October 17 low — possibly a 40-day trough — occurred below the 20-day FLD, signaling weakness, and any near-term bounce is likely temporary.
 
Bitcoin (daily bars) late August to December 2025: 18-month cycle points toward major trough in early 2026.
Bitcoin (daily bars) from late August to December 2025:
 18-month cycle points toward major trough in early 2026.

Bitcoin (monthly bars from 2017 to 2025) entering bear market expected to take price down to $25k.
Bitcoin (monthly bars from 2017 to 2025) entering bear market expected to take price down to $25k.
 
The larger 18-month cycle points to a major trough in early 2026, keeping Bitcoin structurally soft into the broader decline.
 
Gold has been moving sharply higher, and is now approaching the peak of this move. In the monthly chart below, the upper panel displays cycles synchronized at peaks. Gold and other commodities often synchronize at peaks, and when markets accelerate sharply—as gold has—troughs are hard to identify, making peak-based analysis the most practical approach.
 
Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025: Now approaching the peak of this move.
Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025: 
Now approaching the peak of this move.

Looking back to 1998, the analysis identifies 9-year cycle peaks around 2002, 2011, and 2020. The 2002 peak is somewhat uncertain due to gold’s persistent uptrend, while the 2011 and 2020 peaks are well-defined. Markets with synchronized peaks typically form W-shaped structures rather than M-shapes, consistent with gold’s 2011–2020 behavior. The 54-month cycle peak in 2016 also aligns neatly.
 
Gold (monthly bars) from 2020 to 2025: 9-year, 54-month, and 18-month cycle peaks.
Gold (monthly bars) from 2020 to 2025: 
9-year, 54-month, and 18-month cycle peaks.

Since the 2020 9-year peak, 18-month cycle peaks have occurred in early 2022 and late 2023. Accelerating momentum has made these shorter-term peaks harder to pinpoint, creating some uncertainty around the exact timing of the late-2023 peak. Accordingly, the projected next 18-month cycle peak (indicated by a “circle and whiskers”) should be interpreted with caution. The same applies to the 54-month cycle peak, whose projection relies on historical averages and may have stretched over time.

The weekly chart below shows a “nest of highs,” where the 54-month, 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles overlap. This cluster has shifted slightly later than projected, reflecting an expansion of the longer cycles rather than a flaw in the analysis.

Gold (weekly bars) from October 2024 to October 2025. Potential 54-month peak by mid-October 2025: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, approaching a major multi-year peak as the 20-week, 54-month, and possibly 9-year cycles converge.
Gold (weekly bars) from October 2024 to October 2025.
Potential 54-month peak by mid-October 2025: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, approaching
a major multi-year peak as the 20-week, 54-month, and possibly 9-year cycles converge.
 
Hurst noted that gold’s cycles generally run longer than stock market cycles, and the current data supports this. If cycles continue to extend, the next 20-week cycle peak should occur roughly 175 days after April, landing in mid-October 2025, suggesting a major 54-month peak may be forming now.

Gold (daily bars) from September to October 20, 2025. Peak confirmed once price breaks key VTLs and FLDs.
Gold (daily bars) from September to October 20, 2025.
Peak confirmed once price breaks key VTLs and FLDs.
 
Price targets are derived from FLD interactions, but all upward FLD targets have already been reached. We can, however, use the 9-year FLD for context: in 2015, price tracked this line before breaking above it, an interaction resembling a BC-category event in Hurst’s framework. This suggests the 2015 low may have been a very high-magnitude trough, potentially corresponding to a 36- or 54-year cycle low.

Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025. All upward FLD targets have already been reached. On a log scale, the $250→$2,000 (~5×) move from 2001 to 2011 projects a proportional long-term target from ~$1,000 in 2016 to around $5,000.
Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025.
All upward FLD targets have already been reached. On a log scale, the $250→$2,000 (~5×) move
from 2001 to 2011 projects a proportional long-term target from ~$1,000 in 2016 to around $5,000. 
 
Projecting forward on a logarithmic scale, the initial major move from roughly $250 in 2001 to $2,000 in 2011 represented a 5× gain. Applying the same proportional advance from around $1,000 points in December 2015 (36-year or 54-year low) to a long-term target near $5,000.

 
Gold remains in a long-term mean reversion channel. Currently near the upper resistance (~$4,300/oz), gold appears overextended and may revert toward the mean ($2,500–$3,500/oz) before resuming its secular bull trend. The channel’s higher highs and lows reinforce the broader projection toward ~$10,000/oz as inflation, currency debasement, and safe-haven demand sustain the long-term uptrend.
Gold remains in a long-term mean reversion channel. Currently near the upper resistance (~$4,300/oz), gold appears overextended and may revert toward the mean ($2,500–$3,500/oz) before resuming its secular bull trend. The channel’s higher highs and lows reinforce the broader projection toward ~$10,000/oz as inflation, currency debasement, and safe-haven demand sustain the long-term uptrend.
Subu Trade notes gold’s rare 9-week winning streak ending October 17, 2025 — the first since records began in 1970, with no prior 10-week runs. Historically, such streaks yield 0% positive returns beyond the next day and precede average -13% declines within two months. Yet, dollar weakness and geopolitical stress could extend momentum. As of October 20, 2025, gold trades near $4,270/oz, up 65% YTD after retreating from $4,380 highs — eyeing a record 10th straight weekly gain if it closes higher by October 24.

Subu Trade notes gold’s rare 9-week winning streak ending October 17, 2025 — with no prior 10-week runs since records began in 1970. On average, 9-week winning streaks yield a 0% positive outcome beyond the next day and precede average declines of 13% within two months. 
Ray Merriman (Oct 19, 2025) - Geocosmic calls hit targets Silver, Gold and Bitcoin highs. Short-term, next week will be a New Moon in the last degree of Libra (29°), which means the degree of indecision is trying to do something with the sign of indecision, but it’s not sure what to do. So it is best to let the Sun get a couple of days into Scorpio, a sign that makes decisions, even though at times ill-advised decisions that involve too much leverage and not enough liquidity. This may indicate a slew of margin calls forcing people to pay up or sell positions to raise cash. If so, this could lead to a further selloff in those markets affected, such as precious metals. Next week’s aspects are rather benign, otherwise, suggesting support to stock markets with Mercury trine both Jupiter and Saturn at the end of the week, followed by Mars doing the same the week after. The stock market usually likes favorable Jupiter transits. Gold and Silver, not so much, although Mars is still in Scorpio through November 4, which Gold also likes. Still, Gold is due for an important crest any time with Mars between 15-29° Scorpio, and we are there.
 Oct 21, 08:25 EDT
 » We are there. «

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