Showing posts with label Cyclic Theory. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cyclic Theory. Show all posts

Monday, July 28, 2025

S&P 500 and NASDAQ Close to 40-Day Hurst Cycle Peak | David Hickson

The S&P 500 formed an 18-month cycle trough in early April 2025, followed by an 80-day cycle trough on June 23, and a recent 40-day cycle trough on July 16. A 20-week cycle trough is anticipated around mid-August, with the 20-week cycle FLD expected to provide support. 
 
S&P 500 (daily bars): Expect a 40-day cycle peak soon, and a mid-August 20-week cycle trough.

The market is currently in a bullish trend, forming a second 40-day cycle peak soon, after which it should decline into the 20-week trough. Shorter cycle FLDs (5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 40-day, 80-day) will be monitored for peak confirmation and to generate downside targets. The trough may form above the 20-week FLD due to the bullish trend.

The NASDAQ also formed an 18-month cycle trough in the April, and an 80-day cycle trough in mid-June. A second 40-day cycle peak is expected soon, followed by a decline into a 20-week cycle trough in mid-August, with support at the 20-week FLD.
 
 NASDAQ (daily bars), same as in the S&P: 40-day cycle peak soon, 
and a rather shallow mid-August 20-week cycle trough.

Shorter cycle FLDs will be watched for peak confirmation. No significant changes have occurred since the last update, and both indices are expected to follow similar cycle paths.
 
Gold was potentially forming a significant cycle peak, possibly an 18-year cycle peak, around mid-April of 2025, but without confirmation, as its price moves in a contracting wedge and lacks the typical sharp, isolated peaks. 
 
Gold (weekly bars): 18-year peak likely still ahead (allow 1-2 years of leeway). 

Hence, doubts persist about the 18-year peak, with suggestions the April 22 high may be a 20-week or 40-week peak instead, the true 18-year peak likely still ahead due to cycle variation allowing a year or two of leeway. A 40-week cycle trough formed on May 15, and an 80-day cycle trough is expected in early August, with the price crossing below the 20-day FLD, targeting around $3,250, followed by a potential bounce. 
 
Bitcoin saw the 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 (the first in the current 54-month cycle), and a 40-week trough in April 2025, where the cycle FLD provided support. 
 
Bitcoin (weekly bars): next 18-month cycle trough by year-end
or early 2026 (the second in the current 54-month cycle).
 
Bitcoin (monthly bars): 18-month and 54-month cycle peaks and troughs.
 
A 20-week cycle trough is expected in mid-to-late August, with a peak possibly already formed or imminent, followed by a slight decline into the trough before an 18-month cycle trough anticipated by year-end or early next year.

 
See also:
Why long-term peaks don't always coincide with long-term cycles.
  
J.M. Hurst's Nominal Model consists of a series of sinusoids that, when summed, create a composite model, represented by the thick black line of the 18-month cycle in the chart below: The orange line is the 18-month cycle (17.93 months = 546.6 calendar days), the light green the 40-week cycle (9 months = 38.97 weeks = 272.8 days), dark green the 20-week component (4.5 months = 19.97 weeks = 136.4 days), light blue the 10-week cycle (= 68.2 days), dark blue the so called 40-day or 5-week cycle (= 34.1 days) and finally the so called 20-day cycle (17 days) is the purple sinusoid. The X axis represents the number of calendar days. 
  
18-Month Cycle Projection for the S&P 500 based on J.M. Hurst's Nominal Model.
 
The wavelengths are average values rather than exact measurements, and the thick black composite line ignores the effects of both the trend and cycles shorter than 20 days or longer than 18 months. Assuming the US stock market operates with clockwork precision, the dates for peaks and troughs in the above 18-Month Cycle Projection for the S&P 500 were calculated based on the 18-month cycle trough on April 7, 2025, and the aforementioned average cycle lengths. More context HERE & HERE.
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S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week | Krasi

The pattern is on track to complete this week at week 34, in line with the projected 40-week cycle high (typical range: 32–36 weeks). Market breadth is deteriorating, with persistent negative divergences confirming a sell bias.

An ideal impulsive structure in wave C or Y suggests that the market is nearing the end of a five-wave impulsive move
(waves 1 through 5) within either wave C of a corrective pattern (e.g., a zigzag or flat) or wave Y of a complex correction
(e.g., a triangle or double/triple three).

This likely marks a significant top—at minimum a 40-week high—with increased probability that it’s the 4-year cycle peak. Minor waves 4 and 5 remain to complete, potentially finalizing an ideal impulsive structure in wave C or Y, thus terminating the broader pattern.

Reference:
Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - Quick Update.

Every dip's a wave—until it’s not.

See also:
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Monday, July 14, 2025

Gold Nearing Its 54-Month Hurst Cycle Peak | David Hickson

Gold's price action has been challenging to analyze due to its recent flat trend, forming a wedge pattern. Gold is rising into an 80-day cycle peak, with potential for a higher price and a major 54-month cycle peak ahead.

Gold is currently rising into an 80-day cycle peak, and a higher price is expected in the near term.

Peak-Based Analysis (price peaks are synchronized): The current 54-month cycle peak is not sharply isolated, reducing confidence in its placement. A larger, sharper peak is expected, potentially displaced to the right, possibly reaching higher prices within the ongoing 80-day cycle peak.
Trough-Based Analysis (cycles align at troughs, which is mathematically incompatible with peak synchronization): The composite model (combining both analyses) shows divergence from the actual price, particularly recently, despite aligning at the 80-day cycle trough. This discrepancy suggests the major cycle peak is mispositioned, reinforcing the likelihood of a significant peak forming soon.

Close monitoring is needed due to the analysis discrepancy and non-ideal peak characteristics.

 
See also:
 
Gold (CMX) 40 Year Seasonality (1980-2019).
 
Gold likely remains in a broader bullish Elliott Wave structure, still supporting the expectation of a new all-time high. The preferred view is that wave four ended at $3,123 and wave five has begun, or that gold is forming an ending diagonal, having completed wave one and now correcting in wave two. This would lead to a five-wave diagonal, typically marked by overlaps, ultimately reaching new highs in a less aggressive fashion. The alternate view is that gold remains in an extended wave four correction. However, this is seen as less likely due to the disproportionate time it would take compared to previous subwaves, making it structurally inconsistent with typical Elliott Wave proportions.
  
Elliott Wave structure favors another all-time high around $3,600 depending on
how Wave 5 unfolds [see the above mentioned major 54-month Hurst cycle peak].
 
Support at $3,123 and especially $2,970 remains critical. Staying above these levels keeps the bullish case intact. A decisive break below $2,970 with increased downside momentum would raise the likelihood that gold has topped. The structure still favors another all-time high, with a potential target around $3,600. Unless $2,970 breaks with conviction, the market bias remains upward, with summer consolidation expected to resolve higher into the fall and year-end.
 
 
Following the completion of Wave 5, gold is expected to undergo a longer-term, multi-year retracement—either to around $2,541, or more significantly, by 61.8% to 78.6%, potentially reaching levels near $1,379.50 or even $884.20.
 
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Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+ | Branimir Vojcic

The analysis of Bitcoin’s performance concludes that Ethereum is likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next few years. However, Bitcoin’s price trajectory is still expected to show significant movement. 
 
Bitcoin's cycle peak in the 2nd half of 2025 will likely coincide with price reaching the green rectangle range, which is a forty-week
cycle price target. According to the preferred Elliott Wave count, that peak should be a wave (a) of super-cycle degree.
 
A cycle composite on the weekly chart projects Bitcoin's peak into the second half of 2025. 
 
A composite of three dominant cycles on the weekly chart indicates continued upside in the coming months, with a cycle peak projected for the second half of 2025. This peak is expected to align with Bitcoin reaching a price target within a green rectangle range, as determined by a 40-week cycle, and corresponds to a wave A of supercycle degree according to the preferred long-term Elliott wave count.

 
Following this peak, a downturn is anticipated in 2026, with a cycle trough expected in the second half of the year or early 2027. This corrective phase is identified as a supercycle wave B, potentially bringing Bitcoin’s price down to around the 40,000 range during a multi-year correction. The lower blue trend line is highlighted as a logical support level during this period. The corrective wave B could manifest in various forms, such as a zigzag, triangle, or other corrective structures.

After the correction, a supercycle wave C is expected to drive Bitcoin’s price to the 160,000 range or higher, marking a significant long-term upward movement. This analysis combines cycle analysis and Elliott wave theory to provide a comprehensive outlook on Bitcoin’s price behavior over the coming years.
 
ETH’s dominant 3-year cycle enters an up-phase from late 2025 to mid-2027, while BTC’s 4-year cycle remains in decline until early 2027. This out-of-phase alignment supports ETH outperformance vs. BTC through ~2028.

Ethereum is expected to outperform Bitcoin until 2028: Ethereum operates on a dominant three-year cycle, while Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle. These cycles are currently out of phase—Ethereum's cycle is projected to rise from late 2025 to mid-2027, while Bitcoin's cycle will decline until early 2027. Though other factors also influence performance, these dominant cycles are key long-term indicators. 
 
Reference:
 
 
 
Bitcoin formed a 40-week cycle trough in April, followed by an 80-day cycle trough in late June. Bitcoin recently hit a $121,000 target set in May or June, with price finding support at the 80-day cycle FLD. A 20-week cycle trough is expected in early September, likely at the 20-week FLD level. A 54-month cycle trough in late 2022 drives the current bullish action, with an 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 forming bullish M shapes. The current 18-month cycle, ending in early 2026, is expected to be less bullish as the 54-month cycle turns down. Watch for a peak before the next 18-month cycle trough in early 2026.
 
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S&P 500 and NASDAQ Headed for August Cycle Troughs | David Hickson

The S&P 500 analysis highlights a significant 18-month cycle trough formed in early April 2025, potentially of greater magnitude, driving recent bullish price action. An 80-day cycle trough occurred in the third week of June, aligning with the 80-day Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), a key cycle tool indicating support levels. 
 
An 18-month cycle trough in April 2025 has fueled recent gains, with an 80-day cycle trough in June confirming support via the FLD. A 40-day trough is due late July, followed by a deeper 20-week trough in August, forming a bullish M-shape pattern under longer-cycle upward pressure.
 
The dashed red composite model line aggregates cycle wavelengths and amplitudes to project future price movements. It closely mirrors past price action and forecasts a 40-day cycle trough in the third or final week of July, followed by a 20-week cycle trough around the third week of August. The composite model suggests a 20-week cycle peak is imminent or may have just occurred, with prices expected to decline into the 40-day trough, bounce slightly, and then fall into the 20-week trough, forming a bullish, distorted M-shape due to upward pressure from longer 18-month and 40-week cycles. The 20-week FLD will be critical for confirming support at the August trough, with shorter FLDs used to verify the peak.

Upcoming 20 Week Cycle Peak in the S&P 500.
 
The NASDAQ mirrors this pattern, with a significant cycle trough in April (at least 40-week magnitude, possibly 18-month), and a similar sequence of a 40-day trough in late July and a 20-week trough by late August. The composite model line indicates a smaller bounce after the 40-day trough compared to the S&P 500, but bullish pressure persists due to the April trough’s magnitude.
 
Tracking similarly to the S&P, the NASDAQ saw a major April trough (40-week or 18-month), with a 40-day cycle low expected in late July and a 20-week trough by late August. The bounce may be smaller than the S&P’s, but bullish momentum continues due to the strength of the April trough.
 
The 80-day FLD supported the June trough, and the 20-week FLD will be monitored to confirm support for the August trough, especially if the April trough matches the S&P 500’s 18-month magnitude. The principle of commonality underscores the synchronized movements across these markets. While the composite model’s price projections are less reliable due to cycle amplitude and wavelength variations, its shape provides a clear guide for expected market trends over the next several weeks.
 
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Monday, June 30, 2025

Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ | David Hickson

The S&P 500 formed a subtle 80-day cycle trough around June 23, 2025, and is expected to rise toward a 20-week cycle peak in mid-July 2025 with moderate upward momentum (red dashed line). 
  
 
A decline into a 20-week trough is anticipated around mid-August 2025, with a longer-term target of 7,233 later in the year.
 

The NASDAQ is expected to continue its bullish trend, moving upward to form a 20-week cycle peak around mid-July, followed by a decline into a 20-week cycle trough expected in mid-August to early September. 
 
 
 See also: 
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Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Hurst Cycles Timing & Straddled Troughs in the S&P 500 | David Hickson

The 80-day cycle trough was anticipated around early to mid-last week, but as of June 16, 2025 (Monday), it is considered overdue. The cycle is at 70 days since the last trough on April 7, 2025, compared to a recent average wavelength of 61 days and Hurst’s historical average of 68 days.
 
The S&P 500 is expected to form an 80-day cycle trough around mid-June 2025, potentially straddled, 
with bullish price action likely to follow toward a 20-week cycle trough in early August 2025.
 
If the trough formed on June 16, 2025, it would be 2 days later than the historical 68-day average. If it formed last Friday (June 13, 2025), it would be 1 day earlier than the average. If price continues downward without a bounce, the trough could be delayed to around Monday, June 23, 2025 (see also Cosmic Cluster Days and Seasonal Pattern), potentially due to a rephasing of the 18-month cycle trough to April 7, 2025 (displacing the 80-day trough by ~20 days).
 
 A straddled trough in Hurst cycle analysis occurs when a cycle trough is weak or hard to identify because shorter 
cycles are overshadowed by longer ones (e.g., 20-week, 40-week, 18-month).

The 80-day cycle is weak, showing minimal downward price influence, likely overshadowed by longer cycles (20-week, 40-week, 18-month). This results in a straddled trough, where the trough is subtle and lacks a strong downward move, as seen in the upper chart in the red dashed composite model line. The next 20-Week Cycle Trough is expected in early August 2025, which will likely have a stronger influence on price due to the dominance of longer cycles.

 
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Monday, May 19, 2025

Bullish Hurst Cycle Targets for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin | David Hickson

For the S&P 500, an 18-month cycle trough likely formed on April 7, 2025, with confidence upgraded from the prior 80-day cycle analysis. A 40-day cycle trough occurred on May 7, 2025, with price holding above the 20-day FLD, signaling bullishness. An 80-day cycle trough is expected in the first week of June 2025, preceded by a peak. A 20-week cycle trough is anticipated around August 2025. Price crossing the 80-day FLD targets 6,360 before the June trough, while crossing the 20-week FLD targets 6,780 before the August trough. The 80-day FLD should provide support in June. Staying above the 20-day FLD during the 40-day trough and FLD crossings reflect strong bullish momentum, reinforcing the April 18-month trough.

 80-Day Cycle Trough expected around the first week of June, with a prior peak around 6,360.

18-Month Cycle Trough on April 7, 2025, with increased confidence from prior 80-day cycle analysis.
40-Day Cycle Trough on May 7, 2025, with price staying above the 20-day FLD, indicating bullishness.
80-Day Cycle Trough around the first week of June 2025, with a peak forming beforehand.
20-Week Cycle Trough around August 2025.

80-Day FLD Crossing generated a target of ~6,360, expected before the 80-day cycle trough in June 2025.
20-Week FLD Crossing generated a target of ~6,780, expected before the 20-week cycle trough in August 2025.
Support Level: The 80-day FLD is expected to provide support during the 80-day cycle trough in June 2025.

For Bitcoin, a 40-week cycle trough likely formed in early April 2025, supported by price finding stability at the 40-week FLD. A recent 40-day cycle trough formed with price at or above the 20-day FLD, showing bullishness. An 80-day cycle trough is expected by late June 2025, following a peak. An 18-month or possible 54-month cycle trough occurred in August 2024. The 40-week FLD provided support in April, and prior crossing generated an achieved upside target. Shortened cycles, like the early 40-day trough, suggest a bullish trend. Price behavior at the 20-day FLD and FLD support confirm the 40-week trough, though shorter cycle positioning, like the 20-week trough, remains uncertain. 

 80-Day Cycle Trough expected toward the end of June 2025, with a peak around 109,697 forming prior.

40-Week Cycle (= 9-Month Cycle) Trough likely formed in early April 2025, with evidence of support at the 40-week FLD.
40-Day Cycle Trough formed recently, with price staying at or above the 20-day FLD, indicating bullishness.
80-Day Cycle Trough  expected by end of June 2025, with a peak forming prior.
18-Month Cycle Trough formed in August 2024 (potentially a 54-month cycle trough).

40-Week FLD Interaction: Price found support at the 40-week FLD level in April 2025, confirming the trough.
Upside Target: Prior 40-week FLD crossing generated a target (achieved), with current bullishness suggesting further upside to around 109,697 and 123,519.

 
 
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Saturday, May 17, 2025

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis | Krasi

We now have a potentially completed pattern on the hourly chart, with the schedule aligning to week 8 for the 10-week high, suggesting it's time for a pullback toward the 10-week low.


In the short term, the RSI appears to form a triangle in the middle, suggesting a possible zig-zag pattern with a running triangle as the Elliott B-wave. In the intermediate term, a zig-zag pattern is testing the 200-day moving average and the RSI trendline. The next move is a pullback, followed by a rise into July.
 

In the short term, Hurst cycles are nearing the 10-week high, with the next move likely to be a decline toward the 10-week low.


The 40-week low in early April 2025 was right on schedule, with the next move expected to be a rise toward the 40-week high.
 
 
» Absent an escalating trade war, there is no theme right now that can push stocks massively lower (i.e. re-test the April lows). 
I expect stocks to trade in a wide and volatile range throughout 2025 [...] perhaps making marginal all-time highs. «
 
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