J.M. Hurst’s "Principle of Commonality": One Divine Force | Ahmed Farghaly

The "Cyclic Principles" introduced by J.M. Hurst in the 1970s are universal, persisting since the dawn of time. Among these, the "Principle of Commonality" stands out, as it demonstrates that the cycles of disparate financial instruments—and, by extension, human activity—are synchronized by a singular, overarching divine force. Troughs of unrelated instruments occur almost simultaneously, while divergences in peaks or amplitudes stem from local or company-specific factors rather than the underlying rhythm.

» The Principle of Commonality assures us that identical specific and forecastable wave processes occur in all negotiable equities of all types on all markets of the world. So all-pervasive is this Principle that it is only the Principle of Variation that prevents the shape of price histories of all equities from being nearly identical. And, as we have seen, it is the interaction of fundamental events and situations with cyclicality, causing wave amplitude change, that is responsible for the Principle of Variation. 

» A Commonality Phasing Model is, in effect, a large measuring strip used to preserve wave phase and period information from the analysis of two or more equities. Only the most certain of the wave trough locations are used from any given analysis. As results are added from analysis of more and more equities, gaps are filled in and a commonality distribution range is established for each wave trough position in time. A commonality phasing model can be maintained continuously, thus recording the most definitive evidence of wave phase and period from all analyses conducted. «

The Principle of Commonality, J.M. Hurst, 1973. 

Hurst emphasized its practical value: understanding one cycle illuminates others, with minor deviations—his third type of the Principle of Variation [each market’s active cycles deviate from the nominal model’s average periods, and these deviations differ across instruments and times]—leaving global synchronization intact as dictated by the Principle of Commonality. Empirical studies across unrelated assets, commodities, equities, and economic time series confirm that the Principle of Commonality governs beyond any single economy, reflecting a universal rhythm and mirroring humanity’s progression from polytheism toward recognition of a monotheistic, single guiding influence.

 

“And your God is one God. There is no deity except Him, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.”
The Holy Qur’an, Surah Al-Baqarah (The Cow), 2:163.

  

The persistence of cyclical waves through recorded history suggests that Commonality is trans-historical. Data since around 1000 AD reveal continuous alignment, and extrapolation indicates these forces existed long before formal record-keeping. Historical observation supports this: human advancement in the Stone and Bronze Ages unfolded in temporal synchrony across disconnected populations, indicating the operation of the consistent underlying divine force.

 

“For every nation is an appointed term; when their term is reached,

neither can they delay it nor can they advance it an hour or a moment.” 

The Holy Qur’an, Surah Al-A‘rāf (The Heights), 7:34. 

 

While troughs—the beginnings and endings of cycles—are closely aligned across nations, local expression varies. Peaks may occur at different times, amplitudes differ, and local fundamentals shape trajectories. The Principle of Commonality thus governs temporal alignment of critical points while allowing variation in the wave’s characteristics.
 

Chart 1: Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul; magenta) versus Dow Jones (DJIA) from 2000 to 2025.

Empirical evidence validates these assertions. The Kuznets Swing (an 18-year cycle) peaked in 2006 in Saudi Arabia and in 2019 in the United States, yet both began in March 2003 and bottomed in the global low of March 2020. Minor discrepancies among sub-waves reflect local variation but do not disrupt the synchronization of primary troughs (see chart 1 above).

 

 Chart 2.1: Commodity Price Index and S&P 500, both from 1800 to 2025.

 

Chart 2.2: S&P 500 (red) versus Commodity Price Index from 1800 to 2025.

Longer-term studies, including continuous commodity prices and the S&P 500 since 1800, show that over 90 percent of cyclical troughs align temporally across instruments (see charts 2.1 and 2.2 above). 

Chart 3: Soybeans (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 2011 to 2025.

Chart 4: German Dax (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 1994 to 2003.

Even unrelated markets, such as soybean prices and the Saudi stock index (Tadawul), demonstrate strong temporal correspondence (chart 3 above). Comparisons of the German DAX and Saudi index (chart 4 above) reveal synchronization across multiple cyclic levels—the 18-month, 54-month (Kitchin), and 9-year (Juglar) waves—further confirming a unifying global force.

 

 Prophet Daniel (Daniyal) in the Lions' Den (Daniel 6:16–23, KJV).

“And all the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing: and He doeth according to His will

in the army of heaven, and among the inhabitants of the earth: and none can stay His hand,

or say unto Him, What doest Thou?” The Holy Bible, Daniel 4:35 (KJV). 

 

Hurst’s Principle of Commonality thus affirms a single, synchronized force governing the timing of major and minor cycles, while local factors shape amplitude and peak positions. This robust alignment, persistent across centuries and diverse instruments, confirms that cyclical patterns are not random but manifestations of an underlying order.

“Is He not best who begins creation and then repeats it, and who provides for you from the heaven

and the earth? Is there a deity with Allah? Say, ‘Produce your proof, if you should be truthful.’” 

The Holy Qur’an, Surah An-Naml (The Ants), 27:64.

 

Today, we can confidently state that in this article we have presented our proof of a mysterious, dominant, and single force behind almost all fluctuations in human affairs. We can only ask God to grant us wisdom to recognize His design and join us with the righteous after we fulfill our appointed term in harmony with His will.

 

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (October 24, 2025) - The Principle of Commonality: The Single Underlying Force of God.

 

See also:
J.M. Hurst (1973) - Cycles Course - Cyclitec Services Training Course.

 Ernest Emery Richards (2017) - The Geometry of Infinite Mind and Living Systems.

Loai M. Dabbour (2012) - Harmony of Being: Geometry in Man, Nature, and Cosmos.  

Joachim-Ernst Berendt (1987) - The "Law of the Octave": The World Is Sound. 

Plato (360 BCE) - The Same, The Other, and The Essence: Theology of Arithmetic. 
Ahmed Farghaly (October 18, 2025) - Long-Term Commodity Cycles: Unraveling the Big Picture.

Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500 and Bitcoin; Focus on Gold | David Hickson

S&P 500: In previous updates we noted that the 20-week cycle trough likely formed on September 2, consistent with similar lows across global equity markets within a few days of that date. We discussed the probability that a minor low on September 25 represented the 20-day cycle trough. 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from late August to December 2025: 

Rebounding from 40-day trough, likely forming a 40- or 80-day peak —possibly at a marginal new high—before turning lower toward 80-day trough in November (Oct 10 + 37.2 CD = Nov 16 (Sun) ±). Market now in bearish phase into early Jan 2026.

The expected 40-day cycle trough appears to have occurred on October 10, driven by a sharp, news-related decline. This does not signal a larger-degree trough, but reflects the timing of external events with the 40-day low. Price has since bounced above the 20-day FLD, suggesting a short-term upside, possibly a marginal new high. Looking ahead, we anticipate an 80-day cycle trough in November, while the broader trend remains bearish into a major longer-term cycle low in early 2026.

Bitcoin formed a 20-week cycle trough on September 1, but its subsequent structure has been bearish. The October 17 low — possibly a 40-day trough — occurred below the 20-day FLD, signaling weakness, and any near-term bounce is likely temporary.

 

Bitcoin (daily bars) from late August to December 2025:

 18-month cycle points toward major trough in early 2026.

Bitcoin (monthly bars from 2017 to 2025) entering bear market expected to take price down to $25k.

 

The larger 18-month cycle points to a major trough in early 2026, keeping Bitcoin structurally soft into the broader decline.

 
Gold has been moving sharply higher, and is now approaching the peak of this move. In the monthly chart below, the upper panel displays cycles synchronized at peaks. Gold and other commodities often synchronize at peaks, and when markets accelerate sharply—as gold has—troughs are hard to identify, making peak-based analysis the most practical approach.

 

Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025: 

Now approaching the peak of this move.

Looking back to 1998, the analysis identifies 9-year cycle peaks around 2002, 2011, and 2020. The 2002 peak is somewhat uncertain due to gold’s persistent uptrend, while the 2011 and 2020 peaks are well-defined. Markets with synchronized peaks typically form W-shaped structures rather than M-shapes, consistent with gold’s 2011–2020 behavior. The 54-month cycle peak in 2016 also aligns neatly.

 

Gold (monthly bars) from 2020 to 2025: 

9-year, 54-month, and 18-month cycle peaks.

Since the 2020 9-year peak, 18-month cycle peaks have occurred in early 2022 and late 2023. Accelerating momentum has made these shorter-term peaks harder to pinpoint, creating some uncertainty around the exact timing of the late-2023 peak. Accordingly, the projected next 18-month cycle peak (indicated by a “circle and whiskers”) should be interpreted with caution. The same applies to the 54-month cycle peak, whose projection relies on historical averages and may have stretched over time.

The weekly chart below shows a “nest of highs,” where the 54-month, 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles overlap. This cluster has shifted slightly later than projected, reflecting an expansion of the longer cycles rather than a flaw in the analysis.

Gold (weekly bars) from October 2024 to October 2025.

Potential 54-month peak by mid-October 2025: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, approaching

a major multi-year peak as the 20-week, 54-month, and possibly 9-year cycles converge.

 

Hurst noted that gold’s cycles generally run longer than stock market cycles, and the current data supports this. If cycles continue to extend, the next 20-week cycle peak should occur roughly 175 days after April, landing in mid-October 2025, suggesting a major 54-month peak may be forming now.

Gold (daily bars) from September to October 20, 2025.

Peak confirmed once price breaks key VTLs and FLDs.

 

Price targets are derived from FLD interactions, but all upward FLD targets have already been reached. We can, however, use the 9-year FLD for context: in 2015, price tracked this line before breaking above it, an interaction resembling a BC-category event in Hurst’s framework. This suggests the 2015 low may have been a very high-magnitude trough, potentially corresponding to a 36- or 54-year cycle low.

Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025.

All upward FLD targets have already been reached. On a log scale, the $250→$2,000 (~5×) move

from 2001 to 2011 projects a proportional long-term target from ~$1,000 in 2016 to around $5,000. 

 

Projecting forward on a logarithmic scale, the initial major move from roughly $250 in 2001 to $2,000 in 2011 represented a 5× gain. Applying the same proportional advance from around $1,000 points in December 2015 (36-year or 54-year low) to a long-term target near $5,000.

Reference:
David Hickson (October 20, 2025) - How Far Will Gold Go? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

Gold remains in a long-term mean reversion channel. Currently near the upper resistance (~$4,300/oz), gold appears overextended and may revert toward the mean ($2,500–$3,500/oz) before resuming its secular bull trend. The channel’s higher highs and lows reinforce the broader projection toward ~$10,000/oz as inflation, currency debasement, and safe-haven demand sustain the long-term uptrend.

Subu Trade notes gold’s rare 9-week winning streak ending October 17, 2025 — with no prior 10-week runs since records began in 1970. On average, 9-week winning streaks yield a 0% positive outcome beyond the next day and precede average declines of 13% within two months. 

 Oct 21, 08:25 EDT

 » We are there. «

See also:

Martin Armstrong (October 21, 2025) - On Gold, EU Capital Controls, CBDCs, Cryptos, and Stocks.

David Hickson (October 6, 2025) - Hurst Cycles: Bigger Picture for SPX, NDX, ASX, and BTC.

David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

TPR (October 10, 2025) - Hurst 40-Week Cycle High in US Stock Indices | High of 2025. 

Branimir Vojcic (October 4, 2025) - Gold and Silver: Medium- and Long-Term Cycles. 

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025. 

Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Valid Trendlines (VTLs).
Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs).

High Inflation: We are in Kondratieff's "Summer of Summer" | Ahmed Farghaly

Many people are wondering what has been happening to the prices of gold and silver recently. We were expecting developments similar to those that occurred after the 2020 bottom of the Kuznets wave [aka the 18-Year Cycle] in global markets. The first chart below presents our cyclical analysis of the Commodity Price Index.

 

 » We are in the “summer of summer.” «

 Commodity Price Index (quarterly bars, log scale) from 1750 to 2025: 162-Year, 54-Year, 18-Year, and 9-Year cycles. 

[Note, there is ongoing debate regarding the precise starting points of the 162-year and 54-year cycles.
It can be argued that both should be anchored to the Great Depression low of 1932, rather than to 1949-50.]

It is evident that the 54-Year Kondratieff wave, first identified by Nikolai Kondratieff, is clearly reflected in this historical chart. Even more intriguing is the apparent presence of a 162-Year larger-degree Kondratieff wave that maintains the same 3:1 harmonic relationship to the Kondratieff wave as the Kondratieff wave does to its smaller counterpart, the 18-Year Kuznets wave. In our cyclical model, the cycle spanning three Kondratieff Waves is called the Hegemony wave.
 

972-Year Methuselah Wave = three 324-Year Enoch Waves

Enoch Wave = two 162-Year Hegemony Waves 

Hegemony Wave (156.88 y) = three 54-Year Kondratieff Waves

Kondratieff Wave (52.72 y) = three 18-Year Kuznets Waves

Kuznets Wave 17.52 y) = two 9-Year Juglar Waves 

Juglar Wave (8.76 y) = two 54-Month Kitchin Cycles 

Kitchin Cycle = three 18-Month cycles = six 40-Week cycles

Many economists have described the “seasons” of the Kondratieff wave—spring (stable growth), summer (high inflation), autumn (low inflation and asset bubbles), and winter (deflationary recession). Typically, spring coincides with the first Kuznets cycle, summer with the second, and autumn and winter with the third. The highest inflation rates within a Kondratieff wave occur during the summer phase, corresponding to the second Kuznets cycle, which began in 2020.

 

» To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven. «
Ecclesiastes 3:1.

We are currently in the second Kuznets cycle (2020 to late 2030ies) of the second Kondratieff cycle (2000 to 2050) within the ongoing Hegemony wave (1950 to 2100)—a phase that can be described as the “summer of summer.” This phase suggests that we are likely to experience the highest inflation levels since the American Civil War (1861–1865).

» We are likely to experience the highest inflation levels since the American Civil War. «

US Inflation: Annual Percentage Change from 1774 to 2007, with Outlook Extending to 2106.

  

Our next chart above illustrates annual inflation in the United States since 1777. A distinct 162-Year Hegemony wave pattern emerges, with an inflation peak in 1813 marking the summer of the first Kondratieff cycle, a higher peak in 1865 corresponding to the summer of the second Kondratieff cycle, and a lower peak during World War I representing the summer of the third Kondratieff cycle. A comparable peak reappeared in 1980. According to our cyclical outlook, inflation in the current Kondratieff cycle is expected to surpass the levels of the 1970s, as this phase represents the second Kondratieff cycle within the broader Hegemony wave—the “summer season.”

The most advantageous assets to hold at this stage of the cycle—both from the standpoint of the Hegemony wave and the Kondratieff summer—are precious metals, real estate, and equities that tend to benefit from periods of high inflation.

Quoted from:
Ahmed Farghaly (October 6, 2025) - High Inflation: We are in Kondratieff's "Summer of Summer". 

 

 The Ultimate Summer:

972-Year, 324-Year, and 162-Year cycles.

» We are in the Sixth Wave that peaks
on Sunday, December 12, 2032. «

 

» Yet, what experience and history teach us is this: that nations and governments have never
learned anything from history, nor acted in accordance with the lessons to be derived from it. «
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, Introduction to Lectures on the Philosophy of History, Berlin, 1822.

 

See also:

Ahmed Farghaly (2016) - The 162-Year Cycle in Stocks and Commodities Since 1509.

Hurst 40-Week Cycle High in US Stock Indices | High of 2025

The Dow Jones reached its peak in the Hurst 40-Week Cycle as expected on Friday, October 3, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit their highs on Thursday, October 9. This marks the likely high for 2025.

 

Schematic Hurst 40-Week Cycle in the S&P 500 (daily bars; April 7, 2025 to January 1, 2026). Please note that, in any composite or summation of cycles with 2:1 ratios of length and amplitude, the crests of individual cycles become troughs in the resulting summation curve (thick black line).

In the S&P 500, the breakdown on Friday, October 10, expanded to four times the average true range of the past 20 trading days, erasing the lows of the previous three weeks in a sharp, 7-hour move down to August's high. The index closed down 3.36% on the highest volume since August 1, while the NASDAQ dropped 4.24% and the DJIA fell 2.44%.
 

The 20-Day Cycle Low is projected to occur between October 10-13 (Friday to Monday), followed by a brief 2-3 day bounce. Afterward, the market is expected to continue its downward trajectory into the next nominal 20-Day, 40-Day, and 80-Day Cycle Lows around October 24-27 (Friday to Monday).

A brief recovery is anticipated during the first week of November, before the market continues downward into the next 40-Day Low, which is forecasted for around November 28. Another short bounce is expected during the first week of December before the final decline into the 40-Week Cycle Low, which should occur between late December and early January 2026.

The principle of confirmation [20-week VTL] on display.

See also:

David Hickson (October 6, 2025) - Hurst Cycles: Bigger Picture for SPX, NDX, ASX, and BTC.

David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin. 

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 TPR (August 5, 2025) - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle.