Showing posts with label Elliott Wave Theory. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elliott Wave Theory. Show all posts

Saturday, May 17, 2025

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis | Krasi

We now have a potentially completed pattern on the hourly chart, with the schedule aligning to week 8 for the 10-week high, suggesting it's time for a pullback toward the 10-week low.


In the short term, the RSI appears to form a triangle in the middle, suggesting a possible zig-zag pattern with a running triangle as the Elliott B-wave. In the intermediate term, a zig-zag pattern is testing the 200-day moving average and the RSI trendline.
The next move is a pullback, followed by a rise into July.
 

In the short term, Hurst cycles are nearing the 10-week high, with the next move likely to be a decline toward the 10-week low.


The 40-week low in early April 2025 was right on schedule, with the next move expected to be a rise toward the 40-week high.
 
»
Absent an escalating trade war, there is no theme right now that can push stocks massively lower (i.e. re-test the April lows). 
I expect stocks to trade in a wide and volatile range throughout 2025 [...] perhaps making marginal all-time highs. «
 
See also:

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Elliott Wave projection with a final retracement into the end of March, 
followed by a decline into mid-May, below the August 2024 low.

S&P 500 is ready for the next, and final leg up. With price confirming a bullish WXY model at Friday's 5,603 low, I am expecting one more leg up under the 2nd wave targeting 5,750-5,825 to set up for the ultra bearish 3/4/5 wave sequence.

S&P 500 (3-day bars) - Elliott Wave count projecting a decline into late Q1 2026, 
below the October 2023 low.
 
The 16-year rally ended at the 6,147 high with a bearish ending diagonal formation. We're now in the early stages of a catastrophic decline, and price is expected to break this 6-month range escalating much lower. Although I mirrored the path of the 2007-09 crash, this week's rally could easily be the last chance to sell before a 40-60% decline. 


Ref
erence:
Trigger Trades, March 22 & 23, 2025.
 
 
 
2025 Roadmap for the S&P 500 based on Spectrum Cycle Analysis,
with the ideal Q1 low being March 28, 2025, which will set up the final leg up. 
 
S&P 500 projection for 2025 (timing, not magnitude) with seasonally strong windows in the bottom panel.
 
 

 80 Day Low in mid March, and 20 Week Low in mid May.
 
S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.