The S&P 500 suggests a Hurst 20-week cycle trough has formed on August 1, but the NASDAQ and Bitcoin point to a trough that still lies ahead. This divergence underscores the need for cross-market confirmation before drawing firm conclusions.
S&P 500: The April 7 trough of 18-month or larger magnitude underpins the ongoing bullish bias. Sentient Trader Hurst cycle analysis software places the 20-week trough in early August, but the FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) interaction rating is weak (~30%), leaving doubt about whether it was the 20-week low. Price has shown some support at the 20-day FLD, but evidence remains mixed.
S&P 500: The April 7 trough of 18-month or larger magnitude underpins the ongoing bullish bias. Sentient Trader Hurst cycle analysis software places the 20-week trough in early August, but the FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) interaction rating is weak (~30%), leaving doubt about whether it was the 20-week low. Price has shown some support at the 20-day FLD, but evidence remains mixed.
The April 7 trough of 18-month or larger magnitude underpins the ongoing bullish bias.
If the early-August low was indeed the 20-week trough, the S&P 500 could break above its mid-August highs and extend higher into autumn. If not, the index still has a decline due, possibly into late August, before resuming its primary uptrend. Traders should await confirmation through clearer FLD interaction.
David Hickson's cycle analysis software, Sentient Trader, calculates the current average wavelength of the nominal 40-week cycle or 9-month cycle in the S&P 500 as only 32.4 weeks (the colored boxes on the price scale at the bottom right of Sentient Trader charts show the average lengths of cycles), whereas the above schematic projection of the 18-month cycle uses Hurst's original average wavelength of 38.97 weeks or 272 days. This represents a difference of 46 days, or 6.6 weeks (Hurst's Principle of Variation). David F. recently calculated the average wavelength of the 40-week cycle over the last 15 iterations since February 2015 to be 259 days, or 37 weeks. Sentient Trader's 20-week cycle currently measures only 16.8 weeks and favored the August 1 low as the 20-week cycle trough. In contrast, Hurst's original value of 19.48 weeks aligned exactly with the recent W formation or double bottom in the S&P 500 on August 20-22.
Hurst's original approach identifies harmonic cycle lengths between lows, and in any composite or summation of a set of cycles with 2:1 ratios of length and amplitude, the crests of individual cycles actually become troughs in the summation line (thick black line). Hurst analysis can also be used to identify cycles between highs, as illustrated by the gold example below.
Schematic composite cycle projection for the S&P 500 during the
bullish 9-month cycle phase of the current 18-Month Cycle.
Assuming the S&P 500 is in the first bullish half of the third and last 18-month cycle within the current 54-month cycle (which allegedly began in October 2022), and there is no uplifting and dominant influence of the 9-year, 18-year, or 54-year cycles, the upcoming 40-week cycle peak, anticipated around late September to early October, would be a long-term market top. Downward pressure would then lead the S&P 500 through a series of major lower lows and lower highs into the 54-month cycle trough projected into the third quarter of 2026. The same should be true for the NASDAQ.
NASDAQ: Like the S&P 500, the April 18-month and June 80-day troughs are confirmed, but the early August price action points more convincingly to a 40-day trough, not a 20-week low. The FLD sequence is highly rated (~54%), with clean breakdowns below the 20-day FLD, suggesting the 20-week trough still lies ahead. This cycle evidence looks stronger than in the S&P 500.
In the NASDAQ, Sentient Trader's nominal 20-week cycle currently uses an average wavelength of 20.9 weeks,
and therefore anticipates the 20-week cycle trough in late August or early September (thick dashed orange line).
The NASDAQ is likely to weaken into late August as it completes the 20-week cycle trough. Once that trough forms, the structure points to a strong rebound into a 40-week cycle high around late September, consistent with the dominant 18-month cycle uptrend. Until then, resistance at the 20-day FLD should cap the price.
Gold: Remains rangebound beneath a potential 12-year cycle peak on April 22, but its phasing is uncertain. A recent 20-day cycle trough has been confirmed, providing short-term support. Price is currently trapped in a wedge, with both 40-day and 80-day VTLs (Valid Trend Lines) acting as boundaries.
A breakout above the wedge would lead to a potential 12-year cycle peak before a larger decline.
The immediate bias is for a short-term rise as the 20-day cycle exerts upward pressure. A breakout above the wedge or VTL resistance would open the door to new highs before the larger decline sets in. Failure to break higher could prolong sideways action.
In Bitcoin, Sentient Trader averages the nominal wavelength of the 20-week cycle as 20.5 weeks,
and projects the cycle trough into the first week of September.
Reference:
David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - That 20-Week Cycle Trough - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)
David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - That 20-Week Cycle Trough - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)
