Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, NIFTY, Gold, Bitcoin | David Hickson

Global equity markets are diverging: US indices may have already formed an 18-month cycle trough, while others likely have not. Despite this, all markets are synchronously declining into an 80-day cycle trough expected into late May or early June. S&P 500 and NASDAQ show strong bullish signatures suggesting a possible completed 18-month trough, yet are now rolling into 80-day lows. ASX and DAX still point toward pending 18-month troughs, with ASX clearly bearish and DAX more neutral. Gold is bearish post-January peak, and Bitcoin is descending into a synchronized 80-day / 20-week trough.

 

S&P 500: A confirmed 20-week cycle trough occurred on March 30 (Mon), potentially aligning with an unconfirmed 18-month cycle trough. In Hurst cycle analysis, tracking shorter cycles allows to infer longer-cycle behavior. To maintain analytical clarity, this update sets aside longer-cycle markers to focus on the confirmed 20-week trough.

S&P 500 (daily candles), March to June 2026: Downside into an 80-day trough into late May remains the base case. 

Prior bullish excess suggests underlying strength, so declines may be muted, but a break below the 20-day FLD is still expected.  

[Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of

each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts.] 

 

On April 29, a 40-day cycle trough formed. Instead of breaking below the 20-day Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) to meet its downside target—as expected under normal conditions—price found support at the FLD. This resilience signals underlying bullishness, likely driven by a high-amplitude 20-week cycle or the larger 18-month cycle trough.

The next major milestone is an 80-day cycle trough projected for late May. Price is currently testing the 20-day FLD in what appears to be an F-category interaction, implying an imminent breakdown toward a downside target. Although recent bullish momentum could truncate this target, an 80-day trough rarely forms at the 20-day FLD level; thus, the base case remains a move lower.

Timing Metrics: 48 days have elapsed since the late-March trough. Given a nominal 80-day wavelength (historically 68 days, but recently averaging 60.5 days), this trough may arrive slightly early, narrowing the target window to late May. 

 

NASDAQ: Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ's 18-month cycle trough lies ahead, highlighting broader long-term uncertainty. However, shorter cycles offer actionable clarity. Following a late-March trough, price crossed above the 20-day FLD and significantly exceeded its upside target, signaling intense bullish momentum.

NASDAQ (daily candles), April to June 2026: Stronger than the S&P, with prior momentum overwhelming

normal cycle behavior. Now rolling into an 80-day decline, likely shallow relative to typical cycle moves.

 
The 40-day trough likely formed early. Price failed to even retrace to the 20-day FLD during this phase—a classic indication of exceptional strength rather than analytical error. Price is now returning to the 20-day FLD for an F-category interaction. At 48 days post-trough, the NASDAQ is poised to decline into its 80-day cycle trough alongside the S&P 500. 

 

Australian ASX: The ASX anchors the global divergence thesis. Its 18-month cycle trough lies ahead, creating a structurally bearish backdrop. While the 20-week trough occurred slightly ahead of the US and boasts a highly reliable (74.4%) FLD interaction sequence, the index recently failed to reach its upside breakout target.

ASX (daily candles), April to June 2026: Structurally bearish into a pending 18-month trough. Failed upside targets

and expanding cycles confirm weakness. The 80-day trough is imminent or aligns into early June.

 
An unfulfilled bullish target is a vital diagnostic signal confirming underlying bearish pressure. Furthermore, a displaced nest of lows indicates expanding shorter cycles (delayed troughs), typical of a bearish environment.

Timing Metrics: 56 days have elapsed since the March trough. With recent cycle wavelengths averaging 57.8 days, the 80-day trough is imminent, though global synchronization could defer it to late May or early June.

 

German DAX: The DAX exhibits rigid, less fluid price action, but the principle of commonality allows for reliable cross-market tracking. A major trough formed on March 23, aligning with the ASX. Its 18-month trough remains ahead, supporting a long-term bearish framework.

 

DAX (daily candles), March to June 2026: Balanced and orderly. Moving into an 80-day trough,

likely slightly lagging the US, with no clear bearish distortion—expect moderate downside.

However, the DAX appears more neutral than the ASX; its FLD interactions have been clean and balanced, meeting targets with high reliability and no immediate bearish distortion. Following a recent F-category interaction, price is heading lower into an 80-day cycle trough, projected slightly behind the US timeline.

Indian NIFTY-50: The NIFTY remains analytically ambiguous, with the 40-week trough tracking to either February or early April. Shorter-cycle analysis offers some guidance, though low interaction quality (52.4% reliability rating) suggests analytical distortion or heavy interference from longer cycles.

 

NIFTY 50 (daily candles), April to June 2026: Uncertain structure and weak signal quality. Likely a short bounce

from a 40-day trough, then decline into a delayed 80-day trough in June. Key: reclaiming the 20-day FLD.

 

A 40-day trough likely just formed; expect a brief rally toward the 20-day FLD before a deeper decline into an 80-day trough in June—lagging global markets by roughly two weeks. A failure to reclaim the 20-day FLD will signal that this downward leg is already underway.

 

Gold (XAUUSD): Gold remains intermediate-term bearish. While a 40-week trough formed on March 23, a prominent late-January peak continues to exert downward pressure.

 

Gold (daily candles), February to June 2026: Bearish phase intact. Repeated failure of bullish targets

confirms pressure. Now declining into an 80-day trough, potentially forming slightly early.

 
Recent price action confirms this underlying weakness: an FLD upside breakout met its target but lacked follow-through, subsequent rallies have faltered, and recent bullish targets were missed entirely. Following an F-category cross below the 20-day FLD, gold is moving toward an 80-day trough, likely arriving just ahead of late May. 

 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bitcoin closely tracks its composite cycle model. After a bounce off the 40-day trough, price peaked precisely as modeled before reversing. It has since broken below the 20-day FLD in an F-category event, hitting its initial downside target.

 

Bitcoin (daily candles), February to June 2026: Tracking its cycle model. Already in decline

toward a combined 80-day / 20-week trough. Further downside likely before completion.

 
The market is now compressing into a synchronized 80-day and 20-week cycle trough. Because of the larger 20-week cycle's magnitude, this trough should run deeper than the prior 80-day low. Despite realized losses, further downside is expected before the cycle bottoms. 

 

Reference:
David Hickson (May 18, 2026) - 80-Day Cycle Trough Ahead - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

See also:
David Hickson (May 4, 2026) - Markets Diverge as US Entered New Hurst 18-Month Cycle.

Christopher Grafton (May 19, 2026) - The Macro Brief: US Dollar Up (->20D peak). Ten Year Notes Down (->20W trough). 

Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs). 

David Hickson (2014) - The FLD Pullback.

Markets Diverge as US Entered New Hurst 18-Month Cycle | David Hickson

Global stock markets are exhibiting a rare divergence where the US market is decoupling from international peers like the Australian ASX due to staggered major cycle troughs. The S&P 500 is emerging from an 18-month cycle trough (formed March 31), while the ASX and other global stock indices are still trending downward toward their equivalent troughs expected in July.

S&P 500 / NASDAQ: The outlook is predominantly bullish following the 18-month cycle trough. Price targets remain outstanding near 7,424, with the next minor softening expected during an 80-day cycle trough in late May.

 

 S&P 500 (daily candles), March to May 2026: 80-day cycle trough expected in late May.

 

Australian ASX: Bearish to neutral for the next two months. Expect a continued move downward or sideways as these markets seek an 18-month cycle trough positioned in late July 2026.

 

ASX (weekly candles), April 2025 to December 2026: 18-month cycle trough expected in late July 2026.

 

Gold: Cautiously bearish. While a 40-day trough has likely formed, providing a short-term bounce, the potential 9-year cycle peak in late January suggests that rallies may be limited by significant long-term down pressure.

 

 Gold (daily candles), February to June 2026: Potential 9-year cycle peak and long-term down pressure.

  

Bitcoin: Short-term bullish as price moves out of a 40-day trough toward a 20-week cycle peak. However, a broader correction is expected in early June as the market moves into a 20-week cycle trough.

 

 Bitcoin (daily candles), February to June 2026: 20-week cycle trough expected in early June.

 

Reference:
David Hickson (May 4, 2026) - The Markets Are Diverging! Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

See also:

David Hickson (March 9, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. 

Namzes (April 19, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 1, 2026) - May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

S&P 500 in Wyckoff Markdown Phase | Major Low in July

In Wyckoff's Distribution Schematic, the S&P 500 (ES) has completed the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and the Test of Upthrust (TOU) sequence near the upper boundary of the trading range (Phase D). 

 The blue circle marks the current location of the S&P 500.

 

Following the Last Point of Supply (LPSY – Return to ICE) and the Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW), the S&P transitioned into clear Failure to Improve and Markdown type price action (Phase E) outside the trading range (Phases A to D). The decline is characterized by repeated failures to reclaim prior support levels, expanding supply, and the absence of sustained demand sponsorship. 

 

The Eternal Recurrence of the Same Wyckoff Cycle.

Any rally and retracement in April will likely be choppy and shallow and reflect Re-Distribution within the current Markdown Phase, which is expected to resume into July or even October. Measured from the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high, the absolute minimum downside target for the ES markdown is the 50% retracement near 5,940; however, in 2026 a deeper decline of 20%+ to around 5,350 or 4,830 is far more likely.

 

See also:

Alex Krainer (March 27, 2026) - Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

TPR (March 19, 2026) - 20-Week Cycle Low in the S&P 500 and US Stock Indexes | Major Low in July.

20-Week Cycle Low in the S&P 500 and US Stock Indexes | Major Low in July

The projected 20-week cycle low arrived today, Thursday, March 19, at 9:35 AM, 118.12 days after the 40-week cycle low on Friday, November 21, 2025, at 10:30—in the expected price zone. 

 

 SPY (daily candles): 20-week cycle from November 21, 2025 into March 17-19, 2026.

[Projection as of February 22, 2026.] 

 

  SPY (daily bars): 20-week cycle from November 21, 2025 into March 19, 2026.

 

The final nominal 5-day cycle low within the nominal 20-week cycle was projected from the S&P futures low at the open on Sunday, March 15 at 5:00 p.m. (EDT) into the nested 20-week cycle low on Thursday, March 19 at 9:35 a.m. All projected times and dates of highs and lows in the thick blue summation lines, also shown in the charts below, are derived from current cycle periods and are—within the cyclic composite model—mathematically precise to eight decimal places. Cycle periods during the most recent 20-week cycle have been exceptionally stable and reliable; however, they may contract or expand by fractional harmonic offsets (IBPs and ITWs in Delta-lingo).

Tomorrow, March 20, 2026, at 10:46 a.m. EDT, Mercury stations direct precisely at the spring equinox as the Sun enters 0° Aries, with the New Moon conjunct Saturn and Neptune in early Aries.  

 

This creates a strong geocosmic reversal zone. Cycle lows or significant momentum shifts are likely in stocks, metals, grains, and interest-rate markets. 

 

Schematic trajectory of the current 40-week cycle from November 21, 2025 into the 18-month cycle low in mid-July (±).

At the same time, March triple witching and options expiration may drive higher volume and support a bullish turn in the US stock market into the next 10-week cycle, with an early April lower high. Lower highs and lower lows are expected into a major low of at least 18-month cycle magnitude by July 2026.

 

The upcoming 10-week cycle (80-day cycle).

 

Reference:

TPR (February 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Hurst Analysis: Projection into Mid-March 20-Week Cycle Low. 

TPR (2025) - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle.

 

The principle of harmonic nesting and the synchronicity of lows:

Hurst Method Nominal Market Cycle Chart by Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, 1985.

See also:

@Fiorente2 (March 16, 2026) - The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited.
TPR (March 16, 2026) - Louise McWhirter’s Forecasting Theory: The US Stock Market Through 2028. 
Larry Williams (February 19, 2026) - 2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa.

TPR (2012) - The Delta Phenomenon. 

Upcoming 40-Day Hurst Cycle Troughs: SPX, NDX, Crude Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

S&P 500 (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough ideally due December 23 (Tue)(± 5.49 CD). 

While the 20-week, 40-week, and 18-month cycles all remain in decline, a choppy counter-trend Santa Claus rally of uncertain

magnitude is expected into year-end early-January 2026 (see 'Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle' below). 

Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026. 

[Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of

each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts.] 

 

 Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle.

 

DJIA / CPI (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1940-2025).

 

 NASDAQ (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).

 

 NASDAQ (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 23 (Tue). 

Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026.  

 

 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).

 

 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Current 18-Month Cycle (October 2024-December 2025).

 

Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 19-21 (Fri-Sun). One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month

cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around February 17 (Tue), 2026.  

 

 Gold (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1995-2025).

 

 Gold (daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 28 (Sun) and January 5 (Mon), 2026. 

One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycle troughs 

are currently projected to around late February-mid March 2026. 

 

 Bitcoin (daily bars, log-scale): Long-Term Cycles (2010-2025).

 

 Bitcoin (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 20 (Sat).

Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 19 (Mon), 2026. 

[Cycle Analysis as of December 18, 2025 | 11:00 a.m. EST] 

 

See also:

David Hickson (December 15, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Market Update and Outlook into Early 2026.

Jack Gillen (December 1, 2025) - The Year-End Rally and January Effect in US Stocks.

Cyclic Vibrations Consultancy - TimeSeriesSCC Analytical Software.

  

Principles of Commonality and Variation.

Hurst Cycles Market Update and Outlook into Early 2026 | David Hickson

This is our final market update for the year, reviewing our usual set of instruments (SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, Gold, BTCUSD) and outlining what to expect as we move into 2026.

 

S&P 500: The S&P 500 is advancing out of a November 21 trough that is definitively an 80-day cycle low and remains a viable candidate for a completed 40-week cycle trough. This advance is occurring within the larger context of an April 2025 trough phased as at least an 18-month cycle low, which continues to dominate the intermediate trend. Price behavior has been consistently bullish: clean crossings above the 20-day FLD, achievement of FLD targets, and successful defense of the 20-day FLD during the most recent 20-day trough (Dec 10). No bearish structural behavior has emerged to invalidate the 40-week trough interpretation.

 

 Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of

each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts. 

 

A 40-day cycle trough is expected into late December (± Dec 26-29), likely producing a shallow pullback. This should be followed by another advance before a larger corrective phase into an 80-day or 40-week trough in late January or early February (± Jan 30-Feb 6). Unless bearish confirmation appears, that trough is expected to be corrective rather than trend-ending, with the larger structure remaining bullish.

 

NASDAQ: The NASDAQ shares the same broad cycle architecture as the S&P 500, with a confirmed 80-day trough on November 21 and the unresolved question of whether the 40-week trough is already in place or still ahead. However, relative weakness is evident: price has struggled to remain above the 20-day FLD, and short-term momentum is softer. The orange dashed composite model line reflects this by projecting a deeper decline into the next larger trough compared with the S&P 500.

 

A 40-day trough is expected near year-end or early January, followed by a decline into an 80-day trough in late January or early February. If downside pressure increases meaningfully, that later trough may resolve as the 40-week cycle low. Synchronization with the S&P 500 remains the dominant expectation.

 

Australian ASX: The ASX also shows a November 21 trough that could be either an 80-day or a 40-week cycle low, but unlike U.S. indices, price action has failed to confirm bullish intent. The market crossed above the 20-day FLD but did not achieve its projected upside target, and subsequent price action has been weak. While the 20-day trough found approximate FLD support, the amplitude and momentum are noticeably inferior, introducing bearish risk.

 

A 40-day trough is expected into late December, followed by a more important trough in late January or early February. Given current behavior, the probability is increasing that this later trough resolves as a 40-week cycle low. A decisive bearish turn in the ASX would materially strengthen the global commonality case for a synchronized 40-week trough.

 

German DAX: The DAX cycle labeling is less precise, but price action provides important guidance. The November 21 low has been phased as a 40-day trough but sits close to the projected positions of the 20-week and 40-week cycles. Despite analytical ambiguity, price crossed above the 20-day FLD, achieved its target, and remains above short-term support—behavior more consistent with a market that has already completed a larger-degree trough.

 

A pullback into a late-December 40-day trough is expected, with another due toward late January. Unless price begins to display clear bearish characteristics, the evidence favors the interpretation that the 40-week trough formed in November, implying that forthcoming declines should remain corrective.

 

Indian NIFTY: The NIFTY exhibits one of the clearest cycle structures. A 20-week trough occurred in early August, followed by an 80-day trough in early November. Recent price action suggests a 40-day trough has just formed near the projected centers of both the 20-week and 40-week cycles, raising the possibility that the larger cycle trough has already occurred. The current advance is consistent with a market rebounding from a significant cycle low.

 

Price is expected to cross and hold above the 20-day FLD and achieve its upside target. If the 40-week trough is already in place, the coming weeks should remain upward-biased. Risk only increases if the advance fails and the cycle structure shifts into a bearish-shaped configuration toward year-end.

 

Gold: Gold is operating within a structurally bullish environment despite uncertainty surrounding a possible 54-month cycle peak in October. Price action since that peak has challenged its validity, suggesting either that the peak was misidentified or that longer-degree bullish cycles (9-year, 18-year) are overwhelming it. Trough behavior has been exemplary, with repeated successful interactions with the 20-day FLD, including support during the most recent 40-day trough.

 

Gold is likely to retest or exceed the October highs before encountering its next significant corrective phase. The next major timing window is the 20-week cycle trough expected in the third week of January, which should be monitored closely for trend continuation or structural change.

 

Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s November 21 low is currently labeled as an 80-day trough, but it remains a candidate for a larger 18-month cycle trough. Unlike equities, Bitcoin has not displayed strong post-trough bullish expansion. Price has struggled to hold above the 20-day FLD, and recent action shows mild bearish leakage below it, keeping the larger trough question unresolved.

 

Focus is now on the development of the next 40-day cycle trough. Continued weakness would increase the likelihood that the true 18-month trough still lies ahead. Until stronger bullish confirmation appears, Bitcoin should be treated as structurally uncertain rather than trend-confirmed.

 

Reference:

David Hickson (December 15, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Market Update: What's Coming in 2026. (video)

 

See also:

Ahmed Farghaly (December 3, 2025) - S&P 500 Now Declining into 18-Month Hurst Cycle Low.