Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC | David Hickson

In the prior update, we assessed whether the 80-day cycle trough formed early in mid-May or on schedule in early June. Most instruments pointed to a first-week-of-June trough. The key was a decisive test using Hurst’s Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), which now provides the evidence reviewed here.

S&P 500: Analysis continues to use a shortened nominal cycle model due to persistently compressed cycle lengths in US equities, particularly the SPX, while acknowledging the possibility that true Hurst wavelengths still govern. Under this framework, a potential 18-month trough was inferred on March 31 based on proximity to a 20-week trough, and an 80-day trough was projected for mid-May. 

 

[current average cycle periods in stacked, color-coded boxes at bottom right.] 

 

The validation mechanism was price behavior at the 20-day FLD: holding above it would confirm the trough, while breaking below would indicate it still lay ahead. In early June, price briefly held the FLD but broke below it on Friday, confirming the 80-day trough had not yet formed and signaling a reversion to standard Hurst cycle lengths.

Nasdaq: Expectation was likewise that the 80-day trough remained ahead unless price held above the FLD. Friday’s clean break below confirmed the trough was still pending and invalidated the early-trough scenario. 

 

 

The 18-month trough placement remains uncertain, though Sentient Trader identifies it at the end of March; if correct, the structure is bullish, as the market would be in the second 80-day cycle rather than the final one.

Australian ASX: Initial price action—an A-category move above the FLD combined with a nest of lows—suggested the trough had formed early. 

 

However, a subsequent break below the FLD disrupted that view, and although price later reclaimed the FLD in what is likely another A-category interaction, the structure remains less coherent than in US markets. With the 18-month trough still ahead, the market may still be in a bearish phase depending on its position within the cycle.

German DAX: Break below the FLD confirmed the 80-day trough had not yet formed. A nest of lows suggests it likely formed recently, and price has since moved back above the FLD in an A-category interaction. 

 

Even so, with the 18-month trough still ahead, downside risk remains if this is the final 80-day cycle within that larger structure.

Indian NIFTY-50: Price crossed above the 20-day FLD on Friday, confirming the 20-week trough formed earlier in the week and marking the start of a bullish phase.

 

 

Gold: Repeated failures at the FLD formed a GH interaction pair, confirming the 80-day trough had not yet formed at that time. It likely completed shortly after, around Thursday, June 11. 

 

 

While the near-term outlook is upward, an 18-month trough still lies ahead, implying potential future downside pressure.

Bitcoin: 20-week trough formed in the first week of June. FLD behavior showed a GH interaction followed by an A-category breakout, confirming the trough. Although the composite structure is somewhat atypical, the short-term bias remains bullish.

 

 

Reference:

David Hickson (June 15, 2026) The Power of Hurst's FLD - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video) 

 

See also:

Christopher Grafton (June 15, 2026) - S&P 500 Up (80D Trough) and Bitcoin Up (20W Trough).

S&P 500 Up (80D Trough) and Bitcoin Up (20W Trough) | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: US Dollar Down (->40D trough). Gold Up (80D trough). Oil Down (->80D trough). Copper Up (40D trough). USDJPY Down (-> 40D trough). EURUSD Up (80D trough). SPX E-minis Up (80D trough). Nikkei futures Up (80D trough). Bitcoin Up (20W trough). Ten Year Notes Up (20W trough).

 

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - 80 day cycle trough in. Up. 

[Current average lengths of nominal cycles in stacked, color-coded boxes at bottom right of charts.] 

Bitcoin – 20 week cycle trough in. Up. 

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (June 15, 2026) - The Macro Brief- 15 June 2026.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 2, 2026) - June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

Nicholas D. Savino (May 31, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for June 2026.

Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500 and Bitcoin | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: Gold, EURUSD both in 40 day cycle peak zone. US Dollar, Oil, Copper, USDJPY forming pro-trend 20 day cycle troughs. SPX E-Minis, 10 Year Treasuries at 80 day cycle peaks. Nikkei to 40 day cycle trough zone. Bitcoin 80 day cycle trough forming. 

S&P 500 E– Minis (ES, daily chart) - 80 day peak zone. Down.

 Bitcoin (daily chart) - 80 day cycle trough zone. Up.

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (September 2, 2025) - The Macro Brief - 2 September 2025.

 

See also:

Christopher Grafton (2011) - Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis.
David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

J.M. Hurst's Valid Trendlines (VTLs) | Christopher Grafton

Valid Trendlines (VTLs) are unique to Hurst cycle analysis. They pertain to specific cycles and indicate where and when the next longer cycle in the nominal model has formed either a peak or a trough in the past. By extension, they can also be used to estimate future peak and trough locations.

For an up-sloping VTL, we simply plot a straight line joining two adjacent troughs of a particular cycle and project it forward in time. For a down-sloping VTL, it is a straight line joining two adjacent peaks of a particular cycle, again projected forward in time.

 

EURUSD (daily candles - September to October 2022). 

The up-sloping 10-day VTL was crossed down by price on 20 September X(1), indicating that the last peak on 12 September was that of the 20-day cycle. Looking at this cycle's representative semicircle, you can see that the peak is strongly pulled to the left of the semicircle. This is called peak left translation, which tells us that the underlying trend is down—this will be covered in a later section.

The down-sloping 10-day VTL was crossed up by price on 3 October X(2), indicating that the last trough on 28 September was that of the 20-day cycle. (Note: the labels next to the VTLs (8.6 day) refer to the average wavelength of the nominal 10-day cycle. This value is also shown in the bottom left corner of the chart in the 10-day cycle diamonds row.)

 Gold (weekly bars – March 2021 to February 2023).

In the longer-range weekly Gold chart above, both the 18-month cycle and the 20-week cycle VTLs have been plotted. In the week of 16 May 2022 X(1), price crossed down through the 18-month VTL. This means that the last peak was that of not only the 18-month cycle but also the 54-month cycle. One could argue that the signal is rather late, but VTLs are not the only way we place peaks and troughs and establish their magnitude—more on other methods later. Additionally, it is valuable to know the size of that big peak because it tells us a lot about the underlying trend.

The gently up-sloping 20-week VTL was crossed down by price in the week of 11 July X(2). This tells us that the 20 June peak was that of the 40-week cycle. Notice how strongly pulled to the left this peak is, another example of peak left translation and an indication that the underlying trend is strongly down at this point.

Finally, in the week of 10 October, near the right edge of the chart, we can see that price rose up to the down-sloping 20-week VTL but failed to penetrate X(3). Thus, we still cannot say for certain that the most recent price low is that of the 40-week cycle by just using VTLs.

 

Summary: VTLs are trendlines associated with specific cycles. If price crosses down through an up-sloping VTL, we can say that the peak of the next longer cycle is in. If price crosses up through a down-sloping VTL, we can say that the trough of the next longer cycle is in.

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (October17, 2022) - VTLs.

See also:
Christopher Grafton (2011) - Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis.