S&P 500 Now Declining into 18-Month Hurst Cycle Low | Ahmed Farghaly

Major asset classes (equities, metals, cryptos) are entering the final phase of their current 18-month cycles (beige-yellow in first chart below), with synchronized troughs expected from late January into early March 2026. 

S&P 500 / US Equities: The August 2024 trough is identified as the 54-month cycle low. The brief break beneath it in April 2025 is viewed as a false Trump—“Liberation Day”—Tariff straddle and the first 40-week/9-month cycle trough within the current 18-month cycle. Since that time, price action has built a clean sequence of 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, and 20-week cycles. 

S&P 500 (daily closes); 2020 to December 2025: The Big Picture. 

 

S&P 500 (daily bars); September to December 2025: Last stage of the 18-month cycle.

The current 20-day cycle (magenta) ideally bottoms on December 7 (Sun), and the 40-day cycle (red) on December 23 (Tue).

 

The market has completed the latest 80-day trough on November 21 (Fri) and has now entered the final 80-day cycle before the 18-month (beige-yellow) low, which is due around mid to late January 2026 (second chart above). A rally out of the 80-day cycle low into December, but without a new all-time high, was expected because the broken 20-week VTL typically marks the 40-week peak (see first chart). 

 

An early December high remains likely before a meaningful decline into the 18-month trough. This forthcoming weakness is regarded as a mid-cycle correction within the still-intact 54-month cycle upswing. Strong gains are projected for Q2–Q3 2026 as the new 18-month cycle rises.

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (December 1, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update: S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, CRB Index, Interest Rates, Bitcoin. (video)

Hurst Cycles in the CNN Fear & Greed Index.

See also:

Ahmed Farghaly (December 2, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update (S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, CRB Index, Interest rates, Bitcoin). 

Ahmed Farghaly (November 2, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis: Next Peaks and Troughs.

David Hickson (December 1, 2025) - Bullish or Bearish? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

J.M. Hurst (1975) - The Cyclitec Cycles Course.

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis: Next Peaks and Troughs | Ahmed Farghaly

J.M. Hurst's Principle of Commonality suggests that major markets worldwide bottom at approximately the same time. Consequently, my phasing analysis for the S&P 500 is very similar not only to other US stock indices, but also to the CRB index, crude oil, and global equities.

Long-Term Phasing: The 2003 trough initiated a new 54-year Kondratieff cycle, whose first 18-year cycle (a 17.17-year Kuznets swing) concluded with the May 2020 low. This trough was a "straddle to the right," a timing deviation caused by the swift, exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic.

S&P 500 (daily bars) from 1999 to November 2025.

 

The 18-year cycle subdivides into two 9-year cycles. Crucially, the major 2008-2009 decline is considered a "false break" that does not negate the 2003 low. Following 2020, the first 54-month (Kitchin) cycle completed in August 2024, and the S&P 500 is now progressing through the second.

Analog Selection and Projection: The market action preceding the 2008-2009 crisis must be negated as an analog because it was driven by an exogenous factor that broke the 2003 low, a condition entirely absent in the current cyclical environment.

 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from January 2023 to November 2025.

 The projection of the 40-week cycle has a 95% out-of-sample correlation.

 

Lacking the preferred 18-year analog (typically required for a correlation coefficient >0.8), we utilize the 9-year cycle position to project the current 18-month cycle. After synchronizing the 40-week cycle troughs, this model proved highly effective, demonstrating a 95% out-of-sample correlation. Instead of a direct price overlay, the optimal approach is to detrend this projection and apply it to the RSI. This detrended analog shows a high correlation, suggesting a three-swing pattern for the US equity market, which is currently in the anticipated downswing.

Short-Term Outlook: The short-term cyclical position projects an 80-day cycle trough around November 14-16 (Fri-Mon), followed by a rally into early December, before a final selloff into year's end.

 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from June 2024 to November 2025.

Decline into 80-day low around November 14-16 (Fri-Mon); rally to December 8 (Mon) high; 

final decline into an 18-month or 40-week cycle low around December 25 (Thu).

 

Conversely, the more dominant 9-year cycle analog suggests a period of sideways consolidation near current levels. Under this model, new highs are unlikely to be significant, and the market will largely trend sideways until the 18-month cycle trough is established.

 

Reference:

Ahmed Farghaly (November 2, 2025) - SPX Time Cycle Analysis via Economic Waves. (video)

 Ahmed Farghaly (November 2, 2025) - Beyond the Headlines: Navigating US Markets with Long-Term & Short-Term Cycles.

 

FLD Cascade Pattern on XAUUSD chart indicates $3,000/oz target by Q1 2026.

 

Decoding the Next Global Conflict: Commodity Prices Signal Kuznets War-Phase.

Bitcoin FLD Trading Opportunity with 8% Potential | David Hickson

The daily Bitcoin chart below is dated September 15 (Mon), with price near $114.5k. A 20-week cycle trough was identified on September 1 (Mon), which means 14 days have passed since then. The average length of a 20-day cycle is about 17.1 days, and we are approaching the expected timing for the next 20-day cycle trough. The nest of lows at the foot of the chart suggests that a 20-day cycle trough is likely to occur around September 18–19 (Thu-Fri).

20-week cycle trough confirmed on September 1 (Mon). Next 20-day cycle trough expected 

around September 18–19 (Thu-Fri). With the 20-week, 80-day, and 40-day cycles all

pushing up, upside targets are $120K+ by early October. 

Our main tool here is the 20-day cycle FLD. Price has already crossed above this FLD twice, producing a somewhat messy A-category interaction. The target from that interaction was achieved early on Friday, slightly exceeded, as expected after a 20-week trough. Now, price is dropping toward the next 20-day cycle trough. At that time, we expect it to find support at the 20-day FLD at around 112k. 

 

This creates the trading opportunity: If price finds support at the 20-day FLD when the 20-day trough forms, we can look for a long entry. The sequence of price interactions with the 20-day FLD has a 62.5% accuracy rating, making it a reliable setup. Why? There is bullish pressure: Bitcoin is rising out of a 20-week trough, with the 20-week, 80-day, and 40-day cycles all pushing upward. For different entry options, watch the 7-minute video (link below). 

 

Reference:
David Hickson (September 15, 2025) - FLD Trading Opportunity in Bitcoin. (video) 

See also: 

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500 and Bitcoin | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: Gold, EURUSD both in 40 day cycle peak zone. US Dollar, Oil, Copper, USDJPY forming pro-trend 20 day cycle troughs. SPX E-Minis, 10 Year Treasuries at 80 day cycle peaks. Nikkei to 40 day cycle trough zone. Bitcoin 80 day cycle trough forming. 

S&P 500 E– Minis (ES, daily chart) - 80 day peak zone. Down.

 Bitcoin (daily chart) - 80 day cycle trough zone. Up.

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (September 2, 2025) - The Macro Brief - 2 September 2025.

 

See also:

Christopher Grafton (2011) - Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis.
David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.