VIX 80-Day Cycle Low Within Days & Volatility Ready to Break Out | Namzes

The VIX 80-day cycle low is expected within the next few days. August 5 marked day 68, which is slightly early but still within range. The 40-day cycle, shown in the bottom panel, reflects a 2:1 harmonic ratio relative to the 80-day cycle. August options expiration (OpEx, Friday, August 21) should be watched as a potential window for a volatility breakout. Volatility is likely to rise into October, where the next key low in the S&P 500 may form.

Top panel: VIX price + 80-day cycle. Middle: Seasonality/trend + dated cycle lows. Bottom: 40-day cycle oscillator.

The S&P 500's 20-week cycle low likely occurred on July 29 (Wed), with 7,313 now serving as a key daily pivot for any downside. As the VIX cycle approaches its low in the coming days, it is important to monitor the VIX term structure, which is currently reaching extreme contango levels, indicating that 30-day volatility is significantly lower than 3-month volatility. When this ratio approaches and clusters around 0.80, it signals market complacency and often precedes pullbacks in equities.

VIX/VIX3M ratio vs. S&P 500.

 

The VIX/VIX3M ratio, shown inverted in the lower panel for easier comparison against the S&P 500 (in gold), highlights these 0.80 readings. When combined with extreme dispersion and a rapidly declining put/call ratio this week, these conditions point to increasing volatility, which is expected to spike in the second half of August.

Reference:
Namzes (August 5 and 7) - Volatility Set to Ignite: Complacency Signals August Breakout.
 

See also:

Namzes (July 27, 2026) - 20-Week Hurst Cycle Low Due in SPX QQQ SOX SMH.
TPR (August 6, 2026) - S&P 500 Hits New ATH as Smart Money Starts Bailing.

S&P 500 Hits New ATH as Smart Money Starts Bailing

With the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high in early August 2026, a pronounced contrarian bearish divergence has emerged among market participants. Retail "Dumb Money" Confidence (red line in the chart below) has surged from neutral into optimistic territory at 0.61, while institutional "Smart Money" Confidence (blue line) has dropped into pessimistic territory at 0.31. 

 

Retail sentiment tilts euphoric while institutional positioning turns defensive.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index signals rising greed, though not yet at extremes. 

 

Historically, the most dangerous periods for stocks are when dumb money is high and smart money is low at the same time the index is elevated. It does not mean an immediate crash is guaranteed, but it raises the odds of a meaningful pullback or at least a period of weaker returns ahead. 

 

An alternative experimental S&P 500 composite cycle

projection points to a mid-October major low.

However, having likely printed a nominal 20-week Hurst cycle low on June 30 (17.29 weeks / 121 CD off the late-March 40-week trough), the S&P remains in the rising phase of its second 20-week sub-cycle—part of a broader 40-week (9-month) and 18-month structure targeting a major low in late November (± 8 weeks).

 

Static projection based on the latest 20-week cycle period (17.29 weeks / 121 CD).

 

However, having likely printed a nominal 20-week Hurst cycle low on June 30 (17.29 weeks / 121 CD off the late-March 40-week trough), the S&P remains in the rising phase of its second 20-week sub-cycle—part of a broader 40-week (9-month) and 18-month structure targeting a major low in late November (± 8 weeks).

 
The current rise suggests to extend into early September—interrupted by the 5- and 10-day cycle higher lows of August 5–6 (Wed-Thu) and August 11–12 (Tue-Wed) and a 20-day cycle low around August 24 -28 (Mon-fri)—before yielding a late-September 80-day (10-week) cycle trough. A secondary rally into mid-October—capped below the September peak—is then likely to trigger the final decline into the primary 40-week and 18-month cycle trough in November.

 

Total Solar Eclipse on August 12.

 

Key Turning Dates of the Solar Cycle vs. the DJIA.

 

Q1 rally, mid-year correction, July and October windows for yearly low, rally in Q4.  

Average S&P 500 total-return path (indexed to 100 on midterm Election Day) for all midterm years since 1970 (1970–2022), spanning roughly ±6 months. X-axis centers on Election Day (first Tuesday in November); y-axis tracks cumulative total return. The average line rises in the final ~22 trading days before the election (= October 2, 2026) and continues higher afterward (+14.1% average in the following six months). A separate “Lost Control” series (party loses presidential trifecta) lags the broader average post-election (+10.4% vs. +16.1%).

See also: 

Nicholas D. Savino (August 2, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for August 2026.

Jeff Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Seth Golden (July 28, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains.

 Jack Gillen (1979) - Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices.

S&P 500 Forecast for August 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino

Here is the S&P 500 August 2026 Forecast. Also posted is the inverse below. The charts are not scaled for Price. 

 

Primary forecast pattern for August.
 

Inverse pattern for August; currently not favored.  
 

How the July Forecast played out.

Reference:
Nicholas D. Savino (August 2, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for August 2026.
[check for updates]

See also:
Jeff Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Seth Golden (July 28, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains.

Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains | Seth Golden

Buying the S&P 500 on US midterm election day and holding until June 30 of the following year has produced positive returns in every instance since 1942, averaging roughly +16% with a range of about +2.5% to +30.8% across all cycles, regardless of which party controlled the White House, Senate, or House. 

 

 

» If you bought on Midterm Election Day, held through June 30th of
the following year the S&P 500 was higher EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. « 

 

Midterm years themselves typically deliver the weakest average returns (~4–5%) and highest volatility/drawdowns in the four-year presidential cycle, with weakness often concentrated in Q3/Q4 ahead of November; the rebound usually begins in late Q4. 

 

Nevertheless, cycle rankings place Year 3 (the post-midterm/pre-election year) as the historical "sweet spot," typically outperforming Year 1 (~4–7%), Year 2/midterm (~3–5%, weakest), and Year 4/election (~6–8%), with average gains often cited in the 10–17% range as incumbents frequently pursue pro-growth policies.

 

Reference:
Seth Golden (July 27, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains. 

 

DJIA Four-Year Presidential Cycle.

S&P 500 Average Annual Performance. 

Average S&P 500 total-return path (indexed to 100 on midterm Election Day) for all midterm years since 1970 (1970–2022), spanning roughly ±6 months. X-axis centers on Election Day (first Tuesday in November); y-axis tracks cumulative total return. The average line rises in the final ~22 trading days before the election (= October 2, 2026) and continues higher afterward (+14.1% average in the following six months). A separate “Lost Control” series (party loses presidential trifecta) lags the broader average post-election (+10.4% vs. +16.1%)

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

20-Week Hurst Cycle Low Due in SPX QQQ SOX SMH | Namzes

The last 80-day cycle bottomed on time (June 10). Semiconductor stocks (SOX/SMH) made marginal new all-time highs, while the broader indices—the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)—remained slightly below theirs.

PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX).

We are now due for a 20-week cycle low. July 17 marked day 109 and last Friday day 116, so a low may already be in, though it’s early to confirm. Alternatively, if this was only a 40-day low, the current 20-week cycle could extend into a late-August bottom. This would be the fourth bullish cycle in a row, increasing the likelihood that the next cycle is left-translated (bearish).

The subsequent 20-week low, following the August trough, is projected for late October, aligning with seasonal weakness and potentially offering a significant buying opportunity (see the April 2025 SOX projection).  A 3.5-year cycle (Kitchin Cycle) low is still expected ahead, but no major liquidation has occurred yet and models have not issued a sell signal. Market breadth remains acceptable; however, leadership—particularly in technology and semiconductors—is weakening, while defensive rotation is increasing, both of which are cautionary signals.

Using Hurst cycle analysis, the semiconductor ETF (SMH) is entering the 10-week FLD (Future Line of Demarcation). In a strong uptrend, this level typically acts as support; a break below would imply lower projections toward the 200-day moving average (200 DMA) and Q1 highs. For now, this remains a preliminary, low-confidence projection.

PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX).

The current 40-day cycle should continue rising for a few more trading days. The next 40-day low in August will help determine whether the new 20-week cycle is bullish or bearish. A bearish outcome would show early failure, indicating left translation.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

We are in a short-term downtrend, with the 50-day moving average (50 DMA) acting as a pivot near 600 on SMH. Above it, 620 is the key resistance level.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

 

Failure at 600 would open the path to liquidation toward Q1 highs, filling gaps below and repairing weak structure, including the large volume void between 420 and 537 (which includes the July 17 low).

 

Reference:
Namzes (July 27, 2026) - Hurst Cycles: 20W Low Due Across SPX QQQ SOX SMH.
 

See also:

Namzes (June 28, 2026) - Oil Outlook 2026: Navigating the Upcoming 40-Week Cycle Low.
Namzes (April 17, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.
Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

 

Hurst Cycle Troughs and Peaks (November 2025 through July 24, 2026).

 

» The current 20-week cycle could extend into a late-August bottom. « 

Forward Cycle Projection through late 2026-early-2027.

August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

The chart isolates August performance across Trump's first term (2017–2020), 2025, and the 2018 midterm. Returns have exceeded August's bearish reputation, but the structure persists: early weakness, late strength.

 

Early-month weakness, stronger second half: On average, the Nasdaq closed up nearly 6%.

Lows on August 13 (Thu) and August 17 (Mon), followed by a near 3% DJIA rally into month-end.

 

Trump-era policy shocks have repeatedly triggered selloffs that quickly reversed into "TACO Trade" rallies. This cycle differs—tensions with Iran appear less susceptible to rapid de-escalation. Seasonality is supportive, but elevated valuations, geopolitical risk, and macro fragility increase the odds that August 2026 diverges from precedent.
 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - Can Trump Defy August’s Bearish Reputation Again?

 

S&P 500 2026 vs. best-correlated year: 2007 (84%).  

 

SOX, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 Annual Seasonal Patterns 1995-2025.

August Stock Market Performance 2001-2021.

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.  

Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

Jack Gillen (1979) - Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices.

Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026 | Sergey Tarassov

Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution charts correlate the S&P 500 with harmonics of the 41-month Kitchin cycle (currently averaging 1,267.7 days, or 3.473 years).

 

 Note: Based on daily closes, the plotted waves are band-pass–filtered components centered on the target periodicity

(Kitchin range) and subsequently smoothed via averaging/Fourier/digital filtering, suppressing high-frequency noise

and yielding a clean sinusoidal form. Accordingly, they lack utility for day trading or short-term execution.  

The cycle projections (green, blue, and magenta lines) for 2026 in the first chart suggest that the current sideways-to-down phase in the S&P 500 concludes by mid-late-July, followed by a strong projected surge into year-end, then a decline or retracement into Q1–early Q2 2027, and a renewed rise into Q1 2028.

The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of the S&P through 2028.

  

The long-term chart (2021–2028) indicates an upward trajectory in the S&P 500’s Kitchin cycle into late 2026, followed by a sharp correction in Q1 2027 and a continued rise extending through 2027–2028.

  

Reference:

Sergey Tarassov (July 11, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle and S&P 500.

See also:

Sergey Tarassov (2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025.

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - The Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

 

Cyclical Profiles of Kitchin (41-Month) and other Dominant Cycles across Assets and Sectors. 

 

Sergey Tarassov's table classifies each asset by its dominant cyclical drivers (e.g., Kitchin ~3–4y, Juglar ~9y, sunspot harmonics, Venus synodic, 7.8y Gold) and indicates which periodicities statistically dominate price behavior. The “Profile” column quantifies cycle influence, showing the proportion or confidence of a given cycle explaining variance (e.g., “Kitchin 100%” = primary driver). Overall, it’s a multi-cycle attribution framework used to build composite waveforms and time market turning points via overlapping periodic structures. "H" notation interpreted as harmonic components (e.g., 2H, 3H, 4H of Sunspot cycle). "Venus syn" → "Venus synodic" for clarity. Consistent cycle formatting: Cycle (length) where applicable. Ranges unified: e.g., 2H–4H instead of 2H 3H 4H. Missing profiles left blank (—) rather than inferred.

 

Key Cycle Periodicities. 

The second table standardizes all cycles of the first into approximate durations in days and years. Kitchin Cycle (~3.3y) ≈ Sunspot Cycle 3H (~3.7y) explains why they co-appear frequently in the dataset. Other key dominant drivers are: 5.5y (Sunspot 2H) → strongest macro-economic driver (confirmed in GDP note), 7.8y (Gold cycle) → dominant in FX + metals, and 9y (Juglar) → long equity + credit structure. Instruments with Kitchin + 3H Sunspot + Venus synodic (e.g., crypto, grains) tend to show high volatility clustering due to cycle interference.

S&P 500 Update: 80-Day Cycle Peak by Late-July | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: US Dollar Small Down (->80D trough). Gold Down (->20D trough). Oil Up (->20D peak). Copper Up (-> 80D peak). USDJPY Small Down (->80D trough). EURUSD Down (-> 20D trough). SPX E-minis Up (-> 80D peak). Nikkei futures Up (20D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 20D peak). US Treasury Notes Up (20D trough).

  

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) heading towards the next nominal 80-day cycle peak around late-July. Up.

 

US Dollar (DXY) close to an 80-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 

DXY is closing in on the next 80-day cycle trough. Price has just been rejected at the 20-day VTL, which likely marks the last 20-day cycle peak. Expecting minor pullback to the 40-day VTL and then further price expansion.

Bitcoin looking for the next 20-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 

In Bitcoin, the new 20-week cycle upswing is broadly driving price higher. We are looking for a soft pullback into the next 20-day cycle trough. 

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (July 13, 2026) - The Macro Brief - 13 July 2026.

See also:

Christopher Grafton (July 6, 2026) - The Macro Brief - 6 July 2026. 

Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Valid Trendlines (VTLs).
Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs). 

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026. 

Wayne Whaley (June 29, 2026) - 25-0 S&P 500 Setup for June 26 to July 15. 

David Hickson (June 29, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin. 
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino

Here is the SPX July 2026 Forecast. Also posted is the inverse. The charts are not scaled for Price. This forecast correlates with the Bonds Forecast in that ~July 13 appears to be an important date for a Change In Trend (CIT).
 

Primary forecast pattern for July.

 

Inverse pattern for July, which is currently not favored.  

  

 

How the June Forecast played out: June has been difficult. The best right now in this

environment is that the forecast can show Change In Trend (CIT) turning points. 

Reference:

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026.

[check for updates]

July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Historically one of the market's stronger months, July typically sees a consistent upward trend across all major indexes (solid lines), often driven by optimism ahead of second-quarter earnings. Over the last 21 years (2005–2025), gains have built from a strong first trading day, with the NASDAQ leading at an average gain of just over 3%. While the S&P 500, DJIA, and Russell indexes also show robust positive trends, their momentum generally slows after mid-month.

Historically strong and earnings-driven, July favors broad index gains—especially the NASDAQ—
but midterm election years routinely trigger underperformance and small-cap volatility.

However, midterm election years tell a different story (dashed lines). Performance during these periods is notably weaker and more volatile: the DJIA and S&P 500 manage only modest gains, while small-caps (Russell 2000) historically struggle the most, often finishing July in negative territory. Ultimately, while seasonal trends favor equities, the midterm backdrop warns that volatility can emerge unexpectedly.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - Strong July Trends Could Face a Midterm-Year Test. 

July Seasonal Stock Market Performance (2000-2020).

 

 

 July is historically one of the year's strongest months, ranking third since 1950 for both the
DJIA and S&P 500 during midterm election years with average gains of 1.6% and 1.3%.

 

NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally—last 3 days of June through first 9 of July—
has gained an avg 2.5% since 1985, hitting in 32 of 41 years (78%).

 

Second Half 2026 Outlook.
 

In US midterm years (2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022), July delivers the broadest

market strength of the second half, with every major sector posting positive

average returns (S&P 500 +3.65%), led by Technology (+4.11%),

 Energy (+4.26%), and Consumer Discretionary (+4.10%).  

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 2, 2026) - June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.  

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 22, 2026) - NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally from June 25 to July 14, 2026. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Jack Gillen (June 23, 2026) - Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices. 

David Hickson (June 15, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC. 

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.

NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally from June 25 to July 14, 2026 | Jeff Hirsch

As July approaches, attention turns to NASDAQ’s 12-Day Midyear Rally, a seasonal pattern running from the close of the fourth-to-last trading day of June (Thursday, June 25) through the ninth trading day of July (Tuesday, July 14). 

Since 1985, the rally has averaged a 2.5% gain (2.9% median) and finished higher in 32 of 41 years, a 78% success rate. Its strongest performances include gains of 10.4% in 1999, 10.0% in 2000, and 9.6% in 2016, while recent advances reached 4.7% in 2020, 4.1% in 2023, 3.8% in 2024, and 3.3% last year. 

The pattern has persisted through bull and bear markets, recessions, and recoveries, likely reflecting quarter-end rebalancing, new-quarter capital inflows, and improving sentiment ahead of earnings season. Although it has failed nine times since 1985, its four-decade record makes it one of NASDAQ’s most durable and reliable seasonal tendencies.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 22, 2026) - NASDAQ's Midyear Rally: A Seasonal Opportunity Approaches.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 2, 2026) - June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.  

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting.