ICT Intraday Liquidity & Volatility Trading Playbook │ JadeCap

This strategy focuses on how price reacts to liquidity and volatility during the trading day. Liquidity refers to the areas on a chart where other traders have placed stop-loss orders, usually just above recent highs or just below recent lows. The market often moves into these areas to trigger those stops, and then either reverses sharply or continues strongly in the same direction.

Trade Example - NQ Short (1-H Chart)

 

The goal of this strategy is to spot those liquidity grabs, wait for a clear reaction, and then enter with confidence—either to trade the reversal or the continuation. The method is built for traders who prefer to focus on one trading day at a time, using clear logic, session structure, and precise timing.
 

On this episode of Chart Fanatics we are joined by Kyle Ng (AKA Jadecap). Regarded as ICT's best student and recently achieved a world record payout with Apex. Kyle reveals his complete ICT playbook that allowed him to generate millions from the markets. In this episode you'll learn how to manage open exposure and lock in profits, how to predict the next daily candle and the psychology behind avoiding greed in a trade. Riz Iqbal, May 15, 2025.

Each trade begins with a daily bias: a simple outlook on whether price is likely to move up or down today. Then the trader watches for session liquidity raids (like the Asian or London session highs/lows being taken out), and enters only after confirmation appears through a fair value gap, market structure shift, or divergence between markets. This model works well for intraday trades but can also be used for swing trades when the higher time frame aligns with the setup.

To take a trade using this model, the following must be true:

Clear Daily Bias: Decide if you’re bullish or bearish for the day using the daily chart.

Consider recent highs, lows, inefficiencies, and where the price is likely to go next.

Session Liquidity Zones Marked: These are common stop zones and entry traps:

Previous Day’s High and Low
Asian Session High/Low
London Session High/Low

Wait for a Liquidity Raid: A key session level must be taken out during the New York session — this is your signal

that stop orders have been hit and a potential move is beginning.

Confirmation on Lower Time Frame (15m / 5m). After the liquidity raid, wait for one of these confirmations:

Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Market Structure Shift (MSS)
Turtle Soup (false breakout and reversal)
Breaker Block

Ideal Time Window

Trade setups should form between 9:30 and 11:30 AM EST/EDT.

 

Key Differences Between Internal and External Liquidity.

Target & Exit: Your target depends on the setup type. Intraday Targets: Opposite session liquidity, fair value gaps, or  equal highs/

lows. If the trade slows near midday, consider exiting  even before the full target is reached.

Swing Targets: Use higher time frame liquidity zones (daily/weekly highs or lows), imbalances, or major structure. 

Swing trades can be held for multiple days as long as the bias and structure support it. Use time-of-day awareness, price behavior, and your risk profile to decide whether to hold or exit early.

Pros & Cons of the Strategy

This model is designed to deliver high quality, repeatable setups — but like any trading method, there are key things to understand before using it. Note: The cons listed here aren’t disadvantages. They are things to be aware of — important characteristics that require patience, discipline, and proper management to make the model work effectively.

 

Trade Example - NQ Short (15-Min Chart)

Reference:

Riz Iqbal (May 18, 2025) - Worlds BEST Prop Firm Trader Reveals SIMPLE Trading Strategy - Jadecap (Full Breakdown)(video).

 

JadeCap's Trading Room.

 

JadeCap YouTube Channel.

 

See also:

Michael J. Huddleston (May 27, 2024)  - ICT Intraday Templates & Setups for ES/NQ/YM. 

Darya Filipenka (April 3, 2024)  - ICT Syllabus for Beginners - How to Study ICT on YouTube. 

 Aurthur Musendame (2022)  - ICT Price Action Concepts.

 

ooooOoooo

 

If markets continually trend higher, any run on short-term highs should only be seen as short term liquidity being taken. Any retracement lower should be framed as a return to internal range liquidity prior to continuation.This keeps you on the RIGHT side of the market and you stop anticipating major reversals. Never try to pick tops and bottoms. Leave that to the big boys. We only want to ride their coattails. JadeCap's Trading Room, July 16, 2025.

 

Looking for Tuesdays highs on ES. JadeCap's Trading Room, July 17, 2025, 9:03.

 

I stopped adding new concepts and tools and just focused on properly executing what I've already learned. A few lines, context, and ironclad risk management. Stop focusing on the P&L and the size of your trades. If you can trade 1 micro you can trade 10 minis. But you can't do that at scale without a solid PROCESS. JadeCap's Trading Room, July 17, 2025, 14:47. 

Gold's Bullish Breakout from Symmetrical Triangle Could Target $3,700

 XAU/USD (daily bars), July 17, 2025.

 

 XAU/USD (daily bars), July 17, 2025.

 

XAU/USD - Elliott Wave Analysis: The price action in XAU/USD shows a clear upward impulse forming Wave 3, characterized by a distinct 5-wave pattern. Following this, a triangle correction labeled A-B-C-D-E has developed, taking the form of a Symmetrical Triangle—typical for a fourth wave in Elliott Wave theory. A breakout and daily close above the B-D trendline AND the July 16 high would confirm the pattern and suggest the beginning of Wave 5. Wave 5 is forecasted to target the ~3,700 level, supported by strong impulse potential. However, if the price breaks down from the triangle instead of breaking out upward, this scenario would be invalidated.

 

See also:
David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - Gold Nearing Its 54-Month Hurst Cycle Peak. 

The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500 | Branimir Vojcic

The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Index is at about a level which in the past resulted in corrections.

 

 BraVoCycles Newsletter, Juli 5, 2025.

 

The NAAIM Exposure Index, compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, measures the average equity exposure of its member firms, reflecting their sentiment toward US equity markets. It ranges from -200% (fully leveraged short) to +200% (fully leveraged long), with 0% indicating a neutral stance (cash or hedged). As a contrarian indicator for swing trading, it’s often used to gauge market sentiment extremes, with the assumption that overly bullish or bearish positioning by active managers signals potential market reversals. 

 

However, its limitations—such as limited predictive power, small sample size, manager variability, and volatility—mean it’s not a standalone solution. While it can enhance market analysis, traders should approach it cautiously, recognizing that other indicators like the VIX may offer stronger contrarian signals for profitable swing trading.
 

Fear & Greed Index closed at 78 = Extreme Greed on July 3, 2025.
 

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed at 0.48 on July 3, 2025.

 

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio vs S&P 500, July 3, 2025.

 

Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 16.38 on July 3, 2025. 

 

See also:

SubuTrade (July 07, 2025)  - All-time highs and Golden Crosses  - Pullback followed by a golden summer?
David Hickson (June 30, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500. 

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices.  

The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics

Excluding the specifics of the decennial and presidential cycles, the average annual cycle of the S&P 500 since 2004 reveals five consistent seasonal periods, three of which are suitable for high-probability swing trades (90%+):

 

S&P 500 average annual cycle (2014-2024).

Since the S&P rises 70% of the time, bearish trends are less consistent than bullish ones. 

The average annual performance of this seasonal strategy was +18.91%.  

# 1: Mid-February to Late-March Decline: Price action shows an important top between February 14 and 15, followed by a bearish trend lasting into March 20. 

 

 Bearish from February 14-15 High to March 20 Low (2004-2023).

Average move lower: -2.35% (during 12 out of 20 years, down = 60%).

[ ¡ stats in tab referring to February 15 to March 1 (not March 20) - typo, error ?]

# 2: Late-March Rebound: Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen 18 times between March 23 and April 27.

 

 Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).

Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

# 3: July Rally: Since 2009, the S&P 500 has always risen between June 27 and July 25. Not most years. Every single year.

 

 Bullish from June 27 Low to July 25 High (2009-2023).

Average move higher: +4.27% (during 15 out of 15 years, up = 100%).

 

# 4: September Chop: Lack of clear bullish or bearish trends; tentatively sideways to down.

 

September chop between September 1 High to September 30 Low (2009-2023).

Average move higher: +2.77%. Average move lower: -2.63% (during 8 out of 15 years, down = 53%).

# 5: November Rally:  S&P 500 consistently rising since 2004 and averaging a 4.88% gain.

 

Bullish from October 25 Low to November 30 High (2004-2023)

Average move higher: +4.88% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

Reference:

BeSomebodyFX (January 14, 2025) - The S&P 500's Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns. With statistics.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonality (2000-2025).

 

February averaged 0.1% gain over the past 

five decades, with positive results at 56%.

 

Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs

as a % of total Assets Under Management (1996-January 2025).

How Markets Move: The Natural Cycle of Range Change │ Larry Williams

Markets typically shift from small ranges to larger trend moves. When the market is in a large trend move, wait for it to settle into smaller ranges before getting involved. This gives more reliable setups when the market trends again. Market tops generally occur when the price closes well off its low, while market bottoms happen when the price closes near its low. Most traders get emotional during these times, buying at tops and selling at bottoms. Once you understand this, it becomes easier to make smarter trades.

Small Ranges Beget Large Ranges. Large Ranges Beget Small Ranges.

Markets move from congestion to creation (expansion), transitioning from small ranges to larger, more defined trend moves. A small range signals buildup, and a large range signals an impending trend. If I see a small net change from open to close, I know a large trend move is likely coming and am prepared to act on it. Here’s an example using the NASDAQ: Notice how volume fluctuates throughout the day: heavy volume in the morning, a dip in the middle, and a surge towards the end. 

"U" shaped intraday: Heavy volume in the morning, a dip in the middle, a surge at the end.

This pattern is consistent across markets. It’s like a freeway: traffic is heavy in the morning, dies down in the middle of the day, and picks up in the afternoon. Understanding this helps day traders identify opportunities in the morning and towards the end of the day, while avoiding the midday lull. Volume drives range, and large ranges happen at the start and end of the day. This is when short-term traders make money. We need volatility and large ranges to profit.

 There are three key cycles in market behavior: 

(1) small range/large range, (2) moving closes within ranges, and (3) closes opposite openings. 

All three cycles work equally well in any timeframe and market.

"Do yourself a big favor: Mark off all the large-range days [in the chart above], and then study the size of the ranges just

prior to explosive up-and-down days. See what I see? We are given ample warning of virtually every large-range day 

by the shrinkage of ranges a few days earlier."

The key takeaway for short-term traders is that not every day offers a high-probability trade. You need to identify days with potential for explosive moves and not expect large profits daily. It’s about finding that opportunity.

As for market tops, they usually occur when prices close near their highs, and bottoms happen when prices close near their lows. Focus on these closing patterns to determine when to buy and sell.

Trend is a function of time. The more time in a trade, the more opportunity for trend.

The most important insight in trading is that trends are the basis of all profits. Without a trend, there are no profits. But what causes trends? Trends are fundamentally a function of time—the more time you hold a trade, the more opportunity for a trend to develop. The challenge with day trading is that trends occur only about 15% of the time. Most of the time, prices are consolidating, making it difficult to catch a big trend move. Limiting yourself to a few hours of trading only targets that small window when trends are likely to occur.

 My Day Trade Secret: HTTC - Hold To The Close.

The day trader dilemma is that they have limited time to catch trends. Holding positions overnight allows you to capture longer trends and larger profits. A small bet with the potential for a big move is the key advantage of holding positions over time. 

 

 » How you know a large trend move is coming. «

 

Many day traders are afraid to hold positions overnight. However, if you do the math, you'll see that most market moves happen between the close of one day and the open of the next. Moves within the day are often smaller and less reliable. For short-term traders, the key to success is recognizing large range days and holding positions to the close. This is how you catch a big move during the day.

 

Reference:
Larry Williams (2022) - Trading Tactics and Indicators I Still Use. (video)

 

 » Hold To The Close. « 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars).

 Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days and Inside Bar Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days.

 

» There are only two ways a short-term high or low is broken. «

NVIDIA (daily bars).

 Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days and Inside Bar Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days.

See also:

Larry Williams (2011) - Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading (2nd edition).

  Larry Williams (1999) - Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading (1st edition).

Larry Williams (2000) - Swing Points as Trend Change Indication.

Larry Williams (1999) - Three Bar Patterns: The Smallest Fractals of Market Structure.

 Toby Crabel (1990) - The Principle of Contraction/Expansion.

 Toby Crabel (1990) - Definition of Price Patterns.

Linda Bradford Raschke (1995) - Capturing Trend Days. 

S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Party | Robert Miner

Since 1949, the typical pattern of a Post-Election Year is generally flat until late March. The second and fourth quarters are notably bullish, while the first and third quarters tend to be less so. A significant correction in the third quarter is usually followed by a bull trend into year-end. Since 1981, the average trend in Post-Election Years has followed a similar structure but with consistently higher returns (average performance of all Post-Election Years since 1949 +8%, since 1981 +15%).

 

Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%.

That said, Post-Election Year returns have historically favored 1st-Term Democrats. Since 1949, there has been only one instance of a loss during a Post-Election Year with a 1st-Term Democrat, while 4 out of 6 1st-Term Republicans saw losses.

 

 Market Action in Post-Election Years under Republicans and Democrats since 1953.
— Jeffrey A. Hirsch, January 14, 2025.

Data suggests caution in the third quarter during a 1st-Term Republican administration, and the first quarter is typically the worst-performing. Swing traders should wait for the Spring Low to occur between late March and early April before entering long positions. Post-Election Years generally show strong second-quarter performance with a consistent bull trend from the Spring Low to the Summer High (which can occur as early as mid-May), with an average return of around 4%. The Summer High period, from June to August, sees positive returns only in about one-third of Post-Election Years. 

 

The third quarter often trends sideways or down into the Fall Low in late September, with an average decline of around 7% from the Summer High. Since 1949, only one Fall Low to Year-End period has resulted in a loss, compared to an average gain of 7.6%. Since 1981, every Post-Election Year has seen positive gains from the Fall Low, making the Fall Low to Year-End rally the most consistent trend. Since 1981, each Post-Election Year has closed above the lows of September, October, and November, even if some years briefly dipped below. 

 

Reference:
Robert C. Miner (January 31, 2024) - The Definitive Guide to the U.S. Election Cycle and Stock Market Trends: 

Profit from the most consistent cycle in the U.S. economy.

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 2, 2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Patterns.

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook.

 

January Market Performance: Last 21 Years (2004–2024), Post-Election Years (1950–2021), and 2025.

— Jeffrey A. Hirsch, January 10, 2025.

2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy │ Namzes

In 2025, the S&P 500 is expected to head toward a multi-year major market top. The overall structure of the S&P 500 is forecasted to rise until mid-January, followed by a correction of more than 10% into late February or mid-to-late March, and then a melt-up into a major top in mid-July or late-August. This will be followed by an approximately 17% drop into late October that will trigger a bear market.

  2025 Roadmap for the S&P 500. 

 

S&P 500 projection for 2025 (timing, not magnitude) with seasonally strong windows in the bottom panel.

Namzes on X, January 6, 2025.

The S&P 500 is projected to rise until around January 17, reaching approximately 6,250, then experience a 10%+ correction by the end of Q1, targeting around 5,600. Key buy points are expected around February 26 and in the second half of March, with the ideal date being March 28, which will set up the final leg up. A minor buy point is likely around June 27. 

 

 » What we can expect in 2025 is a dip-rip-crash structure. «

The major top is anticipated around July 17, with the possibility of a lower high or a double top/divergent high by August 22, with a minimum target of 6,500 and an upside target of approximately 7,000. After this, the market is expected to drop into a low around October 27, aligning with seasonal and nested cycle lows, followed by a bounce that ultimately fails. The S&P 500 is expected to end the year in the red, setting up for a challenging 2026, with a year-end target of 5,650.

 

In 2025 we face a conflict between the Decennial Cycle (years ending in "5"), which is typically the best year, and other cycles that suggest the market will peak in 2025. I will provide commentary on each cycle, starting with the 3.5-Year Kitchin Cycle (41-Month Cycle). 

 

1.) The current Kitchin Cycle began in October 2022 (when we accurately called the bear market low), and 2025 will be year 3, which usually marks the peak. After that, the market is expected to decline into late 2026, which aligns with the ideal low of the next 3.5-year cycle. 

 

 2025 will be year 3 of the 3.5-year Kitchin cycle.

2.) Looking at the 4-Year Presidential Cycle, 2025 (the first year) is expected to follow a pattern of a spring dip, a summer rally, and a fall crash. I believe this is the key setup for next year, followed by the second year (2026), which is typically the weakest in the 4-Year Cycle. 

 

3.) The longer 18.6-Year Cycle is entering its peaking window in 2025, or possibly 2026. We are entering year 17 of the cycle, so we should begin watching for signs of a top, such as a marquee event like the SpaceX IPO. Market tops are a process, but we should start looking for indicators like weakening economic data, deteriorating market breadth, and earnings rolling over.

 

 The 18.6-Year Cycle is peaking in 2025, or possibly 2026.

 

4.) The Decennial Cycle shows that years ending in "5" are typically the most bullish in the 10-Year Cycle and rarely have negative returns. However, I believe we may have pulled some of the gains from 2025 into 2024 (since year 4 usually experiences sideways consolidation, setting up a blow-off top in 2025). Given the strength of the Decennial Cycle, we must be mindful that the fall of 2025 could be stronger than I currently anticipate. The average seasonality for year 5 is shown in the second chart.

 

 Years ending in "5" are typically the most bullish in the 10-Year Cycle.

 

 A close-up of the typical Year 5 seasonality.

5.) I analyzed the years within the 4-year cycle pattern and identified the 11 most similar years, based on a high correlation score and comparable structure. From this analysis, I created a composite historical projection, shown in green. I’ve also included the composite 4-year cycle for reference, and you can see that the best-matching years closely follow the typical 4-year path.

 

The green composite line represents a historical projection based on 

the 11 most similar years within the 4-year cycle pattern.

6.) The 5-Year Liquidity Cycle, proxied by the M2 year-over-year (YoY) change, is expected to peak in the second half of 2025 and then decline until late 2028 or early 2029. The Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP) is nearly drained, and while the Treasury General Account (TGA) could provide a temporary boost if it’s spent down, the Fed will soon halt Quantitative Tightening (QT). However, other central banks can't ease much due to the strong U.S. dollar. Maintaining historically overvalued equities will require a significant liquidity injection.

 

 Maintaining historically overvalued equities will require a significant liquidity injection.

The ideal bottom of the 5.3-year inflation cycle falls around the end of 2025. It largely depends on oil, which should begin its multi-quarter run sometime in 2025:

 

 The bottom of the ideal 5.3-year inflation cycle falls around the end of 2025.

7.) On the macro front, GDP growth is expected to peak in mid to late 2025, with rising unemployment signaling a recession in early 2026 or late 2025. The 5-year liquidity cycle is expected to peak around mid-2025 and roll over, which will create challenges for overpriced equities and crypto. The Fed’s actions regarding liquidity will be crucial, particularly if it continues supporting asset prices without real economic justification. 

 

 GDP peaking phase around mid to late 2025.

■ Bitcoin will experience a deep retest into a March 2025 low, followed by one more run at the 2024 highs in early summer, after which crypto will enter a multi-year bear market. In my opinion, there is a high probability that the next 4-year cycle (2026+) will be left-translated, with Saylor and MicroStrategy (MSTR) being liquidated and the Tether-fraud (USDT) likely exposed. Meanwhile, almost all altcoins will lose 99-100%. It is currently unclear whether Bitcoin will act more as a NASDAQ proxy or a monetary hedge in the years ahead. Many altcoins may have already peaked for the cycle, but some, like Ethereum (ETH), still have more upside.

 

■ The Dollar is likely to remain in an uptrend into 2025-26. There is a potential pullback early in the year, helping risk assets push higher, followed by a rally into spring (and a subsequent sell-off in risk assets). Then, a big correction in the USD is expected into the July-August low, which should coincide with the stock market top.

 

■ In the Euro, an 18-month cycle low is due and will likely occur around March 2025. The subsequent 18-month cycle is likely to be left-translated, with a drop into the 2026 four-year cycle low, targeting below parity with the dollar.

 

 EUR going to crash into 2026 low.

■ The Yen is expected to begin a multi-year uptrend, leading to trillions in capital flowing back to Japan in the years ahead.

 

 » ¥ strength leading to repatriation or repatriation leading to strong ¥? «

 

■ Bonds remain in a secular bear market, so any rally in bonds will be cyclical (driven by a growth scare or recession), followed by a significant rally in rates. A potential counter-rally in bonds is expected in Q1 2025, but it is likely to fail. The technical target for TNX is 5.5%.

■ Given that 2022 was the 8-year cycle low in Gold, we now have a bullish intermediate and long-term bias. There is a potential low in the spring around the 2,400 support, followed by a push higher towards 2,800–3,000+ into 2026. Central banks won’t stop buying as the war cycle and geopolitical tensions intensify, while governments debase currencies.

 

 Gold upward bias from Q2 2025 onwards.

 

■ Silver is expected to reach 38.00 within the next 6 quarters.

■ All energy should be in an uptrend over the next 6-8 quarters, with Natural Gas likely leading (reaching a new all-time high in 2026).  

 

 US Natgas Prices Highest since December 2022. 

 

The next best entry opportunity in Natural Gas is likely to occur
at the end of January to early February 2025, with a confluence of
the 100-day cycle low and the seasonal low. The above is composite
cycle chart from December 3, 2024 for reference.

 

The 3.5-YearCrude Oil cycle (left chart) is starting with long consolidation. 

Leading indicators (second chart) pointing to expansion move due in 2025-26. 

 

Crude Oil is expected to reach the 80 in the spring of 2025, then 100, and 150 by 2026. 

 

 

» Energy will outperform after big tech tops. «   

My Crude Oil leading indicators and cycles suggest a big move in the next 2 years, but the exact timing of the expansion is hard to pinpoint, potentially around the end of 2025 into 2026. [see also HERE]. Uranium is likely to return to 100+ in 2025, and Coal should also see gains.

 

Reference:

Namzes on X, December 27, 2024.

 

 » Larry Williams is more bullish than me, but also cautious beyond 2025. «