Showing posts with label Liquidity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Liquidity. Show all posts

Monday, March 18, 2024

ICT Liquidity Runs | Michael J. Huddleston

As price action traders, we're looking specifically for reference points where there is a high probability of liquidity resting in the marketplace. Related to ICT concepts, liquidity relates to buy orders and sell orders. It's as simple as that.

Below old lows, the market will seek liquidity for the sell side or the sell stops, taking orders out. Understanding this premise, when we view price action, it removes all of the retail-minded perspective but heavily leaning on indicator-based ideas. When we adopt these principles with study of price, it gives us the  truest and purest view of how price is delivered.

We have no confidence or direct relationship to our directional bias on price relative to anything except for price itself. If the market is moving from an old high, we know that there is going to be liquidity resting above that old high. If the market is moving from an old low, we know there is going to be a rest liquidity below those lows. It is just that simple. 
 
LRLR = Low Resistance Liquidity Run
HRLR = High Resistance Liquidity Run

As a trader you want to be trading when there is LRLR conditions because during LRLR conditions price will cleanly deliver to your target a lot quicker than HRLR conditions. If you're in a trade a lot longer than expected it is most likely because you are in HRLR conditions.

A LRLR will have clean highs or lows and for this example it means there's a large pool of liquidity resting above the Clean Highs/EQHs. This is where retail traders are placing their stops and smart money will look to take out these stops.


Another way you can look at LRLR is if there are EQH/Ls & multiple highs/lows lined up in a row (Trendline Liquidity). This is what #TheStrat traders call Pivot Machine Gun (PMG). It's called PMG because the algorithm spools higher like a machine gun triggering stop losses to get taken out.
 


So in this example, after SSL got raided, you're looking to go long inside of the FVG within the BPR to target the EQH. This is LRLR conditions.
 


When you have EQH/L, any PD arrays in-between where price is currently at to the EQH/L will have a low probability of holding. Smart money will target the largest liquidity pool which will be the EQH/EQL so price will either go through the PD array, or consolidate at the PD array then continue in the direction of the EQH/L. Now we will look at an example of HRLR. Typically with HRLR conditions there will be a stop hunt (fu) on buyside or sellside liquidity. Once there's a stop hunt it will leave a Point of Interest (POI) / PD array which is typically an orderblock or fair value gap.
 


Because there's a stop hunt (fu) which leaves a POI, the POI will act as resistance which will make it a HRLR condition. So in this example, instead of going long at the lows to target the high formed from (fu), I'd rather wait for price to reject off the POI to look for shorts.
 

1st pic below is M15 timeframe, 2nd pic below is H1 timeframe. You will see a M15 fu raid on BSL which leaves an H1 bearish orderblock making it HRLR. After the fu raid price went lower and when it retraced back up it rejected the orderblock then started to take out internal SSL.
 
 
 
HRLR conditions can also happen when indices ( $ES $NQ $YM ) is not in sync with each other or when it's not in moving inversely to $DXY (dollar). $GU & $EU are supposed to move inversely w/ $DXY as well so if they're moving together it is HRLR conditions.


Reference:
 

ICT Draw on Liquidity | Darya Filipenka

Liquidity is the lifeblood of the markets. Liquidity is what allows anyone to buy or sell for a profit or a loss. It is what creates opportunity in the markets. While liquidity may not hold much significance for a retail trader, it is of paramount importance to big players who must carefully consider it in order to execute positions successfully. In an non-liquid market there are few buyers and sellers, and trades may take longer to complete, and prices can be more volatile. To help you better understand what liquidity is, I have drawn some simple diagram. It illustrates why we refer to certain levels as 'liquidity'. The point is not that the models themselves are liquidity, but that when a certain price model appears, liquidity is attracted at key levels and price points.


So what is the use of liquidity for us traders? Good question. Liquidity helps us determine where the price is likely to go next. You can learn to trade only using liquidity levels, it's not difficult, but the risks and potential profits will not be so attractive. In order to get a high-quality trading idea, using the liquidity, you need to apply the market structure on the Higher Time Frames, order blocks, and Premium/Discount zones. This helps to understand what kind of liquidity will attract the price and where we should enter into the trade and where we should exit.

How to identify the Draw on Liquidity (DOL)? As a day trader, the DOL can be PWH/PWL (Previous Week High/Low), PDH/L (Previous Day High/Low), or session High/Low from Asia, London, or New York paired with EQH/EQL (Equal Highs/Lows) with a Low Resistance Liquidity Run (LRLR) condition. EQH/EQL (Equal Highs/Lows) are large pools of liquidity so institutions will always draw towards those levels to take out retail.

How do I find the next Draw on Liquidity? First thing, price is always either re-balancing or taking liquidity. Price is going from Premium/Discount array to P/D array. Hence, you must annotate your P/D zones to know If price re-balanced or will re-balance, you must also annotate your liquidity and P/D arrays. To find the next draw on liquidity, you can follow a displacement, use the reaction on a P/D array.

External range liquidity refers to the buy side liquidity above the range high and sell side liquidity below the range low in the current trading range. It Is associated with liquidity runs that seek to pair orders with pending order liquidity, which is in the form of a liquidity pool. External range liquidity runs can be low resistance or high resistance in nature. As a trader, you want your trades to be In low resistance conditions, meaning you don't want any resistance in your path of profitability. While Internal Range Liquidity is the liquidity inside the defined range (External Range Liquidity), This could be In form of any institutional reference that we can use as entry such as order blocks, fair value gaps, volume imbalance, and more.
 

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Turtle Soup Day In Day Out │ Max Singh

The Turtle Soup trading strategy was developed by Linda Bradford-Raschke and published in her 1996 book Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies
 

The strategy’s name is a reference to a well-known strategy called Turtle trading, taught by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt in the 1980s to a group of novice traders called the 'Turtles'. 
 
 

Linda Bradford-Raschke inverted the reasoning behind the original Turtle strategy in order to develop a short-term trading method using false breakout reversals at key levels. The strategy can be used on 1 hour, 4 hour or daily charts. The method is simple but requires understanding of order flow and market structure. 

 
Reference
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Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 (monthly bars). Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly Highs and Lows and Targets. First month up.
Cup & Handle pattern? No.  
 
 
 
 Nasdaq 100 (weekly bars). Four weeks up. Current inside.

Nasdaq 100 (daily bars)
 
Nasdaq 100 (1 hour bars) - Last week narrow range. This one still inside. Close above balance line. 
 
Wednesday, Thursday, Friday 'Major Red News'.
 
 

Saturday, September 30, 2023

ICT Liquidity - The Financial Market's Zero Sum Game | Michael J. Huddleston

For a trader or institution to buy or sell an instrument, stock, currency pair, etc. it is necessary that there is another trader or institution or 'the crowd' with the equivalent opposite position. If the smart money (capital controlled by institutional investors, market mavens, central banks, funds, and other financial professionals) wants to buy a financial instrument, they will need sellers in the market. Our presumptions are: 
  1. All financial markets are a zero sum game. 
  2. In all financial markets price is generated and driven by the market maker's auction algorithm. 
  3. The market maker's price generating algorithm continuously calculates, re-balances and manages the flow of orders always in line with the fundamental 'Minimum of 50% Retracement-Rule across all time-frames: fractions of a second, minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and quarters. 
  4. The algorithm generates the mathematically highest possible return for the market maker.

 
For the market makers, for the big dealers in the exchanges - for the smart money - liquidity is provided by the dump money, by the crowd, at levels where the dump money usually has its Stop loss, Buy and Sell orders. Driving price beyond these order-levels, the market maker collects liquidity - the money of the uninformed. Smart money activates these stop, buy and sell orders to feed and place their contrary positions in the market. Richard D. Wyckoff - a brilliant speculator, and later on a broker and market maker himself - explained the accumulation and distribution process of the 'market maker' - of the Composite Operator - in all detail ninety years ago. The Composite Operator manipulates the price in order to collect 'free money'. Liquidity.  
 
There are two types of liquidity:

1.          Buy Stops Liquidity (BSL)
The BSL is originated by Stop Losses of sell orders, after the BSL is taken, the market reverses to the downside, because banks use the BSL to place sell orders in the market. 
 
 
Regarding Buy Stops Liquidity (BSL) focus on:
PMH - Previous Month's High
PWH - Previous Week's High
PDH - Previous Day's High
HOD - High Of Day
OLD HIGH - Swing High
EQUAL HIGHS = Retail Traders' typical 'Resistance'.

When BSL is taken, the market reverses to the downside.
 

2.          Sell Stops Liquidity (SSL)
The SSL is originated by Stop Losses of Buy orders, after the SSL is taken, the market reverses to the Upside, because banks use the SSL to place Buy orders in the market. 
 
 
Regarding Sell Stops Liquidity (SSL) focus on:
PML - Previous Month's Low
PWL - Previous Week's Low
PDL - Previous Day's Low
LOD - Low Of Day
OLD LOW - Swing Low
EQUAL LOWS = Retail Traders' typical 'Support'.

When SSL is taken, the market reverses to the upside.
 

The Stop Hunt (SH) is a manipulation movement used by the Market Makers to neutralize liquidity (stop losses). It's a false breakout above /below the zone where there is liquidity. Market Makers usually use High Impact News to take liquidity.
 
High Impact News Calendar

Always pay attention to the news calendar, to know the pairs that will move, generally, pairs with many news forecasts('High Impact'), those currency pairs, stocks, bonds, etc. are going to move (trending) during the day or week.

See also:

Monday, February 13, 2023

The Closing Auction | Price Discovery, Liquidity, and Disagreement

 

The closing auction accounts for a striking 7.5% of daily volume in 2018, up from 3.1% in 2010. The growth of indexing and ETFs shifts trading towards the close and distorts closing prices: they often deviate from closing quote midpoints, but the deviations revert by half shortly after the close and fully overnight. As volume migrates towards the close, liquidity at the open deteriorates.

Quoted from:
Vincent Bogousslavsky & Dmitriy Muravyev (Dec 3, 2020) - Who Trades at the Close?
Implications for Price Discovery, Liquidity, and Disagreement.

See also:
TPR (Jan 12, 2023) - The ICT Power of 3: Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution (AMD).