Showing posts with label Fair Value Gap. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fair Value Gap. Show all posts

Monday, December 1, 2025

Engulfing Bar Strategy | JadeCap

This one pattern helped me make over $4 million in the last three years and even break the world-record payout at Apex. Let me show you exactly how it works:
 
» For a true engulfing pattern, the new candle must break the previous candle’s low and the previous candle’s high. «
 
What Is an Engulfing Bar? We’re simply looking for two candles—along with proper context—to define the pattern: Imagine we have a down candle with its open, high, low, and close. The next candle is what determines whether we have an engulfing bar. For a true engulfing pattern, the new candle must break the previous candle’s low and the previous candle’s high. It completely “engulfs” the previous range (aka Outside Bar/Candle).
 
So picture the first down candle closing. The next candle runs below that low, takes it out, reverses, pushes above the prior high, and closes somewhere near the top half of its range. That two-candle formation gives us a tremendous amount of information about where the next candle—or even the next several candles—may go.
 
Understanding the Context: Inside a higher-timeframe candle (4-Hour or daily), there are dozens of smaller candles—1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute—that form all the micro-structure. Within that lower-timeframe structure, the engulfing pattern represents:
 
Market Maker Buy Model (for bullish engulfing)

So although it's only two candles on a higher timeframe, those two candles often reflect an entire lower-timeframe reversal model.

The key is the closure. Many beginners think a candle will close as an engulfing bar, only for it to close weakly or back inside the prior range. That invalidates the pattern. A proper engulfing bar should close with a strong, decisive body—typically in the upper 50% for bullish setups, or the lower 50% for bearish setups.

Bullish vs. Bearish ExamplesFor a bullish engulfing bar, the second candle runs below the prior low, reverses, and breaks the prior high (Outside Candle). For a bearish engulfing bar, it runs above the prior high, reverses, and breaks the prior low. Both reflect a higher-timeframe representation of a lower-timeframe Market Maker Model.
 
» Every setup has a failure rate. «
 
What Most Traders Don’t RealizeEvery setup—Engulfing Bars, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), Market Maker Models—has a failure rate. I learned this the hard way after blowing dozens of accounts trying to trade every engulfing bar I saw. Two things matter:
  1. Every setup fails sometimes. If you backtest these candles, you'll see some of them lose. Your job is not to find the magical 100%-win-rate setup. It doesn’t exist. You may find these patterns work 60% of the time. Your winners must be managed well enough to pay for the losers.
  2. Location matters. A lot. When I was new, I took every engulfing bar. That was a huge mistake.
    If you're bullish, you want the engulfing bar to form at a swing low, ideally after taking out sell-side liquidity.
    If it forms after taking out buy-side liquidity—at a high—it's often a sign of exhaustion and more likely to fail.
    The reverse is true for bearish setups.
Avoid:
Bullish engulfing bars printed at or after taking out buy-side liquidity.
Bearish engulfing bars printed at or after taking out sell-side liquidity.
 
These filters alone drastically improve your win rate.
 
The $98,000 ExampleLet’s walk through the trade from last week. We printed a large bullish engulfing candle immediately after FOMC. The candle swept sell-side liquidity, reversed, broke the prior high, and closed strongly—exactly what we want at a swing low. We were also inside a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), adding even more confluence.
 
Bullish Engulfing Bar Setup in the NZDUSD (4-Hour candles). 

My first target was buy-side liquidity above the highs. Since the market was near all-time highs, I was also looking for a move toward the psychological 25,000 level. As soon as the futures market reopened at 6 p.m., I entered with a 20-lot position. My stop was below the weekly open. I was looking for roughly a 1:3 risk-to-reward.
 
On the lower timeframes, the price action continued to confirm the model—bullish FVGs forming on the way up, continuation structure holding. Meanwhile, bearish engulfing candles printed at swing lows failed, exactly like we want to see.
 
I showed the live account login on the video: real balance, real fills, floating around $93,000 at one point. But the dollar amount doesn’t matter. If your account is small, making $200 or $400 using the same rules is identical—it’s just a matter of position size. Years ago, I was risking $500–$1,000. As my net worth grew, I increased my risk proportionally. Eventually, price hit my target and I closed the trade for roughly $98,000.
 
Final ThoughtsEngulfing bars are easy to spot—but only powerful when combined with
 
    Proper context
    Liquidity understanding
    Market structure
    Higher-timeframe narrative
    Disciplined trade management
 
Your homework is to backtest and forward-test these exact setups: where the engulfing bar forms, where the liquidity sits, where your stop should go, and how to trail it as price moves in your favor. Scaling in, adjusting stops, and managing the trade all revolve around that one pattern.

With this engulfing bar strategy and the rules I just shared, you now have everything you need to start identifying high-probability opportunities. Remember: profitable trading isn’t about talent or luck—it’s about discipline, patience, and following your rules every single time.

Reference:
 
 
See also:

Friday, August 1, 2025

The Thursday-Friday-Monday Pattern | Tom Hougaard

What happens when we start out trading on a Monday, and the previous Thursday’s high was higher than Friday’s high? Over the last 52 weeks, there were 21 instances where the price action on Friday was unable to trade above the highest point of the previous day, Thursday. I then looked at what happened on the following Monday. If there was a holiday on the Monday, I would view the price action on the Tuesday. Let me show you some examples:

When Thursday’s high was higher than Friday’s high, Monday traded below Friday's low.
 
Considering the random nature of the markets on a day by day basis, there shouldn’t be a pattern, and if there is, I have found an edge to exploit. I was surprised to find that on 20 out of the 21 occurrences, the Dow traded lower on Monday, often lower than Friday’s low. 
 
Here is how to apply this strategy:
1) Switch to the daily time frame.
2) Confirm that Friday's high is lower than Thursday's high.
3) Mark the low of the Friday candle.
4) Move to a smaller time frame for entry.
5) Wait for the price to reach a bearish fair value gap.
6.) Enter a short position, expecting the price to hit Friday's low on Monday.
7) On Monday, monitor the regular New York trading session.

I am not in the business of deluding people, so here is an example where it did not work: 
 
It did not work: Monday did not get below the lows of Friday.  
 
And here is one I traded earlier in August 2019. I went home short over the weekend –always a very risky strategy – and I was rewarded for it (this time!):


I assume you notice that there are often gaps associated with the Thursday-Friday-Monday pattern. Gaps are an inevitable part of trading life. 

 
then how often is Thursday going to trade below the low of Wednesday?
What happens to Monday if the previous Friday trades below the highs of Thursday?

oooo0O0oooo
 
But is that actually true: does Tom Hougaard's Thursday-Friday-Monday Pattern really has an edge? Here are the results of the respective 2003-2025 backtests for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000:
 
S&P 500: 472 setups; 231 wins: 48.94% win rate: No edge.                            
Nasdaq: 449 setups; 249 wins: 55.46% win rate: Slight positive edge.              
DJIA: 458 setups; 223 wins: 48.69% win rate: No edge.                            
Russell 2000: 464 setups; 258 wins: 55.60% win rate: Slight positive edge.
 
 
                            
 

Wednesday, April 3, 2024

ICT Fair Value Gap | Darya Filipenka

A Fair Value Gap (FVG) is a price action phenomenon typically illustrated using three consecutive candles, where the wicks of the two outer candles do not meet or overlap with the wick of the middle candle. It represents a range in price delivery where only one side of market liquidity is offered and is often confirmed by a liquidity void on lower time frame charts within the same price range. Price can "gap," creating a literal vacuum in trading and resulting in an actual price gap. This occurs when price moves away from a specific level with minimal trading activity, producing a one-directional price movement.
 
 The key point in identifying FVGs is that the gap is only calculated by the impulse up or down candle, 
and the candles on either side of that move. Everything else does not contribute towards that gap.

A Liquidity Void is a range in price where one side of market liquidity is displayed through wide or extended one-sided ranges or candles. It occurs when the market moves aggressively away from a consolidation, creating a void in buy-side liquidity. This indicates that very little buying occurred during the price movement. The nature of a liquidity void is such that, with a high probability, price will eventually retrace and trade through the same price levels that were previously lacking liquidity. The idea behind Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) is that the market will ultimately return to these inefficiencies before continuing in the direction of the original impulsive move. FVGs are significant because they can provide traders with a market edge. Price action traders can also use these imbalances as entry or exit points in the market.
 
A Bullish FVG is a BISI (Buyside Imbalance and Sellside Inefficiency). A FVG is formed by three consecutive candlesticks. In a BISI, it begins with the high of candle #1, which marks the FVG low, and ends with the low of candle #3, which marks the FVG high. A bullish FVG is created when the low of candle #3 does not overlap the high of candle #1. This occurs due to a displacement in price caused by candle #2. It is referred to as a Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency (BISI) because, during candle #2, only buyside liquidity is offered to the market, creating a buyside imbalance. Simultaneously, the absence of sellside liquidity results in a sellside inefficiency.

A Bearish FVG is a SIBI (
Sellside Imbalance and Buyside Inefficiency). A SIBI starts at the low of candle #1, which is the FVG High, and ends at the high of candle #3, which is the FVG Low. A Bearish FVG is created when the high of candle #3 doesn't overlap the low of candle #1. This occurs due to the displacement caused by candle #2. It is called a Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency (SIBI) because, during candle #2, only sellside liquidity was offered to the market—resulting in a Sellside Imbalance—and since no buyside liquidity was present, there is a Buyside Inefficiency.
 
  

Inverted FVG - When price uses a SIBI (Bearish FVG) as support, and when price uses a BISI (Bullish FVG) as resistance—in other words, inverted FVGs are failed Fair Value Gaps that get retraced into later in price. We consider an Inverted FVG only when:

1. A Bullish FVG formed inside Premium Zone (above Equilibrium).
2. A Bearish FVG formed inside Discount Zine (below Equilibrium).
 
Most of the time, a Bullish FVG formed inside the Premium Zone will fail to give a reaction when price returns to that FVG. Ideally, we want to see price move lower and then bounce back into this FVG to continue the sell-off. In this case, the Bullish FVG becomes resistance—and I would say, strong resistance. The same applies to a Bearish FVG formed inside the Discount Zone: we want to see price trade higher, break through this FVG (making it invalid), then retest the zone and continue moving upward. This FVG then becomes a support zone.

Implied Fair Value Gap — It utilizes two wicks and their respective Consequent Encroachment. An Implied Fair Value Gap (IFVG) is an imbalance formation consisting of three candles, as conceptualized by ICT. It involves identifying a larger candle body and measuring the average between the two adjacent candle shadows.
 
Criteria:
1. Big range candle.
2. Does NOT have a FVG.
3. Candles on either side have long wicks that overlap “Implied FVG”.
Steps:
1. Find Consequent Encroachment of left candles lower wick.
2. Find Consequent Encroachment of right candles upper wick.
3. Space between C.E. wicks is “Implied FVG”.
 
A Balanced Price Range — is the common area between two opposite Fair Value Gaps when they overlap. This overlapping of FVGs is called a double FVG. A BPR results from an aggressive move up immediately followed by an aggressive move down, or vice versa. What remains after either of these instances is essentially a double Fair Value Gap, which can act as a magnet for price before a continuation move higher or lower.

You must have a higher time frame (HTF) Point of Interest. Don’t enter a trade solely based on the presence of a BPR if you don’t know the bias for the day. ICT states that, in order for price to become a Balanced Price Range, it must trade through both directions of the price window. As you can see, price traded through the overlapping gaps—rebalancing and redelivering—creating a Balanced Price Range. Once redelivery occurs, expect price to move aggressively away from the gap.
 
Reference: