Recent Toby Crabel Price Pattern Setups in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) - (1) - (2) - (3) - (4)

(1)   2BNR is the 2 Bar Narrow Range: If the 2-day-range (the higher of the 2 highs less the lower of the 2 lows) is the narrowest 2-day-range in the last 20 trading sessions then we are currently sitting on a 2BNR.
(2)   3BNR is the 3 Bar Narrow Range: If the 3-day-range (the higher of the 3 highs less the lower of the 3 lows) is the narrowest 3-day-range in the last 20 trading sessions then this is true.
(3)   » Next time you see an Outside Day with a down close lower than the previous day, don't get scared, get ready to buy ! «
(4) 4BNR and Inside Day with an Up-Close -  narrowest weekly range of last 7 ... weekly directional change already due? ... or early September?

Reference:
Toby Crabel (1990) - 2-Bar Narrow Range Setup.
Toby Crabel (1990) - The Principle of Contraction/Expansion.
Toby Crabel (1990) - Definition of Price Patterns.
Larry Williams (1998) - Outside Bar Trading Setups.

Larry Williams (1995) - An Outside Look at Inside Days.

D'onte Goodridge (2022) - Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) Data Ranges.

D'onte Goodridge (2023) - Structural Characteristics of Bullish & Bearish Months.

TPR (July 25, 2024) - Cosmic Cluster Days | August 2024.

Martin A. Armstrong (July 14, 2024) - Next weekly directional change during week of August 26.

MyPivots.com (2024) - Scanner for Toby Crabel Price Patterns in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures.

 

Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) Data Ranges | D'onte Goodridge

IPTA stands for Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm which controls the price action on our charts. It is the sole reason we get the four phases of the market: consolidation, expansion, retracement, and reversal. IPTA is used by Commercial Speculators to move large orders in the market. IPTA creates shifts on the daily chart every 20, 40, and 60 trading days, known as the IPDA look-back periods.

 

 IPDA Look-Back Periods = 20, 40, and 60 Trading Days

Approximately every 20 trading days, new liquidity pools form on both sides of the market. Understanding IPTA will give clarity about which levels are significant to current price. IPTA is always working and exchanging orders every second. IPTA can be applied on a daily timeframe of the current trading day or the first trading day of a month. 

 

Before trading a new month, traders should follow three steps to gain insight in the market:

(I.) Visualize IPDA Data Ranges in Daily Chart

The first step you must follow is finding the first trading day of a new month. Next you count back 20, 40, and 60 trading days (TD) from the first trading day of the month. Last find the highest high and lowest low in each look back data range.

 

The above is the daily chart of British pound versus US dollar (GBPUSD). Currently we are in January 2023, and the first official trading day is Monday, January 2, 2023. That is the start. From here we look back 20, 40, and 60 trading days: back 20 TD = December 2, 2022; back 40 TD = November 4, 2022; back 60 TD = October 7, 2022. Now we have all our look back data ranges. We find the highest high (red lines) and lowest low (blue lines) in al three quadrants.

(II.) Create hypothesis were price might draw to based on Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Now that we have finished our chart activity, we will take a look at technical analysis, then perform fundamental analysis and gain macroeconomic data that can aid with insight. Last, bring together the two analysis techniques to form a hypothesis on what price should do in the near future. 

 

Every new trading month, I am asking myself two questions: 

 

(1.) Is price going to give me a quarterly shift, meaning change trends?
(2.) Or is price going to continue its current trend? 

 

I have no idea whether or not the market is going to continue its trend or make a quarterly shift during the new month. However, using the IPTA ranges, I am able to structure some story-line, especially around liquidity. Going into a new trading month, IPTA ranges can help to figure out where the large orders of liquidity are residing. One side of the market is going to be taken, whether that is buy side liquidity or sell side liquidity. Look for the highs and lows that are still intact. This is where the price algorithm is going to draw to.

 

 British Pound Forex Seasonality.

(III.) Consider Seasonality

Incorporate Seasonality for more insight going into a new trading month. Seasonality does not tell you when to buy or sell for the year but it does give a general sense of when to anticipate the high of the year or the low of the year or when a instrument may be going sideways for a month or a couple of months.

 

IPDA Library Example #1: Gold/USD vs IPDA.

 Primary driver of the market are Interest Rate Differentials (IRDs).
 

Reference:

D'onte Goodridge (2022) - IPDA Data Ranges (video)

D'onte Goodridge (2022) - IPDA Library Example #2 - #7 (videos)

Michael J. Huddleston (2020) - ICT Forex Price Action Lesson: Advanced IPDA Insights. (video)

Michael J. Huddleston (2017) - Quarterly Shifts & IPDA Data Ranges. (video) 

Trading Major News Events | D'onte Goodridge

News events typically inject momentum into the market, often prompting traders to anticipate where price might trend in response to the news. Making educated predictions about these movements is a common strategy rooted in technical analysis. Position yourself AFTER major news releases (NFP, CPI, PPI, PMI, FOMC etc.) with either a Pump & Dump or a Dump & Pump trading setup.

Sell Scenario/Setup: Wait for the buy side liquidity pool on the 15 minute timeframe to be raided first. After that, go to the 1 minute timeframe entry above the killzone's opening price. Then, anticipate that price will revert back down to a sell side liquidity level.

 

 

Buy Scenario/Setup: Wait for the sell side liquidity pool on the 15 minute timeframe to be raided first. After that, go to the 1 minute timeframe entry below the killzone's opening price. Then, anticipate that price will revert back up to a buy side liquidity level.

 

When price moves above the opening price of a killzone, it's in a premium. This is where to find ideal sell entries. 

When price moves below the opening price of a killzone, it's in a discount. This is where to find ideal buy entries.

Reference:
D'onte Goodridge (July 14, 2024) - Trading News Events. (video)

 

 Major news July 15–19 (UTC -6).

ICT Macros & Quarterly Theory | Michael J. Huddleston & Daye

Algorithmic macros are timed directives for market maker price algorithms to seek and take out liquidity levels and imbalances in the market. Hence looking at a chart the first task is always to identify imbalances/inefficiencies, buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels. Look at previous day's highs and lows, session highs and lows, highs and lows in the last three days and the previous week. 

 

 

There are 8 macros during the trading day:

 

          #1  London Pre-Open Macro      02:33 - 03:00 EST/EDT

#2 London Open Macro               04:03 - 04:30

#3 New York AM Macro                 08:50 - 09:10
#4 London Close Macro               09:50 - 10:10
#5 London Fix Macro                    10:50 - 11:10
#6 New York AM Close Macro    11:50 - 12:10
#7 New York Lunch Macro          13:10 - 13:40
#8 New York PM Close Macro    15:15 - 15:45

 

ICT Killzones and Macros in the US Dollar Index 5 minute chart.

 

ICT Killzones and Macros in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures 5 minute chart.

Macros focus mainly on the first 20, 30, or 40 minutes of a trading hour (22.5 Minute Cycle). 

 

► There are no ICT macros during the Asian Session.  

► The macro between 9:50 and 10:10 is a time window where the market maker algorithm starts running for liquidity (look for ICT Silver Bullet setup).

► The period between 10:50 and 11:10 marks the end of the 3rd hour of the New York AM Session, and the first 90 minutes of floor trading (90 Minute Cycle). 

► The transition from the AM session to the lunch period leads either to consolidation, reversal or continuation (6 Hour AMDX/XAMD Cycle).

 

Divison of the trading day according to the Quarterly Theory:

6 Hour Sessions, 90 Minute Quarters & 22.5 Minute Micro Cycles/Quarters (EST/EDT).

 

6 Hour Sessions & 90 Minute Quarters in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures 15 minute chart.
 

90 minute Cycles & 22.5 Minute Micro Quarters in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1 minute chart.

 

Based on market structure and price action prior and during a macro, three categories can be classified:

 

(1.) Manipulation Macros sweep both buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels.

(2.) Expansion Macros sweep liquidity only on the buy-side OR the sell-side (trending price).

(3.) Accumulation Macros are characterized by ranging prices. 

 

Swing highs and lows of macro intervals can act as support and resistance.

 

Reference:

Michael J. Huddleston (July 9, 2023) - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro. (video)
Michael J. Huddleston (June 26, 2023) - 2023 ICT Mentorship - Opening Range Gap Repricing Macro. (video)

Michael J. Huddleston (2017) - Projected Range & Objectives.

Michael J. Huddleston (2015) - ICT Daily Range Profiles.

Daye (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.

 

See also:

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Silver Bullet Strategy.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - Implementing Economic Calendar Events.

LuxAlgo (2024) - ICT Killzones.

LuxAlgo (2023) - ICT Silver Bullet.

LuxAlgo (2023) - ICT Macros.

Structural Characteristics of Bullish and Bearish Months | D'onte Goodridge

Traders want to find trending markets but often fail to see and understand the structural characteristics of bullish and bearish months. Both move in a similar fashion but inverse to one another. Here are the characteristics for the formation of a bullish month:

 

 

The first example is a daily chart of US Dollar versus Japanese Yen (USDJPY) during February 2023. The market was trending up. It was a bullish month. Let's identify the five key factors to a bullish month:

1. Price moves below the monthly opening price.
2. A swing low forms below the month's open.
3. Price purges a previous daily low (PDL) and reverses back to a previous daily high (PDH).
4. The market creates a market structure shift (MSS) to the upside and an Imbalance or Fair Value Gap (FVG).
5. Higher swing highs and higher swing lows form.

 

Looking at the daily candles in the USDJPY chart, we see the methodical sequence of a Bullish Month developing:
 

1. Price was movesg below the monthly opening price. Price stops below it, runs up, drops below it, runs up and continues the bullish trend.
2. A swing low below the month's open forms. This is a swing low because the candle on the left has a higher low and the candle on the right has a higher low, hence the low in the middle is the lowest point. To form a swing low  only takes three bars.
3. Price purges a previous low and works back to a previous high. The following day price reverses back to the previous daily high, all happening within a three bar setup, creating a swing low, which is a purge on the previous daily low and a reversal back to a previous daily high.
4. Next the market creates a shift to the upside with speed through a previous swing high and a FVG.
5. And price created a new swing high and a higher swing low.

The next example is a daily chart of Apple during January 2023. The same five criteria for a Bullish Month were met:

 

Now let's look at the five key factors to a Bearish Month:

1. Price moves above the monthly opening price.
2. A swing high forms above the month's open.
3. Price purges a previous daily high and reverses back to a previous daily low.
4. The market creates a shift to the downside and a FVG.
5. Lower swing highs and lower swing lows form.

 

The first example is a daily chart of British Pound versus US Dollar during August 2022. The market was trending down. Identify the above listed five criteria for the formation of a Bearish Month:

 

 

The last example is a daily chart of Gold during February 2023. Gold was in a down trend. Identify the structural criteria for the formation of a Bearish Month:

 

Reference:
D'onte Goodridge a.k.a. Forensic Forex (2023) - Characteristics of Bullish & Bearish Months. (video)  

 

 

 

See also:
Larry Williams (1998/2011) - Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading, 2nd Edition.

 Michael J. Huddleston (2017) - ICT Weekly Range Profiles.

Daye (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.

 

Buy and Sell Signals | Larry Williams

 Buy Signal: Dump, dump, (dump), go sideways and pump a bit, one more small dump, then the pump.

Sell Signal: Pump, pump, (pump), go sideways and drop a bit, one more small pump, then the dump.

» If I observe prices in a strong downtrend, then move sideways before dropping again, only to immediately return to the previous trading range, that's a buy signal. Why? Because during the sideways range, accumulation was taking place. The breakdown likely liquidated many long positions, and professional money will often buy in that area. If the price quickly returns to the range, it confirms that they’ve been buying, and that's when I want to enter a long position in the market.  «

 

Quoted from:
Larry Williams (2016) - Buy Signal. (video)

 

See also:

Larry Williams (1998/2011) - Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading, 2nd Edition.

The Market Makers Method | Jones Zondo

Price is a reflection of the number of transactions and the price paid for these transactions. A large number of transactions are required in order to shift price. The Forex market is said to trade about $4,000,000,000,000 [four trillion dollars] on average daily. The bulk of transactions are executed by large “Warren Buffet” institutions, and not by laptop traders such as ourselves.

 » A typical pattern of behavior particularly when analyzing the Three-Day Cycle is to be able
to identify a peak high followed by three moves down and a reversal which will form a peak low. «

Market Maker ability to dominate the market is overwhelming. It costs roughly 10,000 Lots to move the market by 1 pip, with this in mind Market Makers have the ability to move the price at will and retail traders can’t. For a retail trader to truly succeed in Forex, you need to at least have a concept of this Mammoth process so that you will understand what is happening and why. Rather you adapt to trade with them instead of against them once we are done with the secrets. Once you realize that price is moved as a result of intention, logic decision and the idea that price is a product of emotional feeling (sentiments) of various traders is misguiding “BS”. Failure to realize this, your trade career will be emotion driven leaving you to react to every trade.

Quoted from:
Jones Zondo (2018) - Market Makers Secrets. Private study notes extracted from various entities. 

 

See also:

Steve Mauro (2011) - The Market Makers Method.

Cameron Benson (June 16, 2024) - The Complete 3 Day Cycle Short-Term Trading System.

Michael J. Huddleston (2016) - ICT Forex - Market Maker Primer Course. (videos)

ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) | Darya Filipenka

Timing is an important factor in trading, and a well-defined strategy can significantly increase your chances of success. The ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) strategy is one approach that traders can utilize to identify high-probability trade setups. It’s important to pinpoint the specific time and day when the OTE is most likely to occur. Typically, this happens between 8:30 AM and 11:00 AM, New York local time.

 

Market Structure - As the market rises and declines and makes higher highs/lower lows, each new swing higher/lower in price is anchored or directly reacting to another swing higher or lower. Every swing in price has an equal counter swing it is unfolding from and attempting to fulfill. 

 

Market Structure Shift (MSS) - comes from the HL or LH levels, it will serve as one of the reasons for us to enter the trade. A market structure shift is depicted as a significant level on the chart where the prior trend Is invalidated. When the market is in an uptrend, the market structure shift level is typically identified as a point where a lower low is formed. Conversely, in a downtrend, the market structure shift level Is often observed at a juncture where a higher high emerges. Notably, these market structure shifts tend to arise following a displacement, signaling a potential shift in the overall trend direction.

1. The Premium Zone represents the price correction range situated above the 0.5 (50%) level in the context of a downward momentum. Traders pay attention to this zone when considering selling opportunities.
2. The Discount Zone refers to the price correction range located below the 0.5 (50%) level in the case of an upward impulse. Traders observe this zone for potential buying opportunities.
3. The Equilibrium Zone denotes the price range where the asset's average price is located. In other words, it represents the fair price zone or the level of balance between buyers and sellers.

 

 Concept of Premium & Discount.

Traders and market makers seek opportunities to buy at a Discount and sell at the Premium zone. As a result, traders often disregard the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci levels in their analysis and instead wait for the price to move above or below the equilibrium level. We focus on the Premium / Discount Zones, since the price does not always enter the OTE zone. Sometimes it is enough for price to adjust by 0.5 (50%) in order for the big man to gain or lose a position.

 

To select the high and low points of a dealing range, follow these steps:

1. Run a Fibonacci retracement tool from the highest high to the lowest low within the dealing range. This will help establish the overall range of price action.
2. Pay attention to areas where the algorithms consolidate. These consolidation areas indicate fair value and are important in determining the proper dealing range.
3. Consider the nearest high when the 50% Fibonacci level aligns with the common consolidation area. This will help identify the appropriate high point of the dealing range.
4. Select the lowest low as the low point of the dealing range. This ensures that the range encompasses the relevant price action and aligns with the areas where algorithms are active.

To implement the OTE strategy, follow these steps:

1. Determine the current market structure, whether it has a bullish or bearish bias. This ia crucial as Fibonacci levels work best within a trending market.
2. Identify significant swing highs and lows to draw the Fibonacci grid. These highs and lows are often visually prominent and easy to label.
3. Use the Fibonacci retracement tool to assess the correction potential in an uptrend (from bottom to top) or downtrend (from top to bottom).

Using OTE during Silver Bullet: After identifying the MSS, I recommend drawing an OTE retracement from the Swing Low (High) to the Swing High (Low). The optimal entry point for trades is typically at the 62% retracement level of that range. Once the trade is entered, the first target is typically set at the -27% extension level, and the second target is set at the -62% extension level. Wait for price to trade back into the FVG (Fair Value Gap) and then reprice out of the FVG towards the targeted pool of liquidity. Usually a FVG lines up with the 62% retracement level.  

 

Reference:

Darya Filipenka (July 22, 2023) - ICT Optimal Trade Entry - OTE.

Darya Filipenka (May 7, 2024) - ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory. 

Ayub Rana (May 2, 2024) - ICT Market Structure Shift.

Darya Filipenka (April 3, 2024) - ICT Fair Value Gap.

Darya Filipenka (March 18, 2024) - ICT Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro.

Darya Filipenka (March 6, 2024) - ICT Advanced Market Structure.

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to the Full ICT Day Trading Model.

Michael J. Huddleston (May 7, 2020) - OTE Pattern Recognition Series. (videos)

Michael J. Huddleston (Sep 29, 2017) - OTE Primer - Intro to ICT Optimal Trade Entry. (video) 

ICT Intraday Templates & Setups for ES/NQ/YM | Michael J. Huddleston

There are six Intraday Templates and Trading Setups for the S&P (ES), the Nasdaq (NQ) and the Dow Jones (YM) - three bullish and three bearish ones:

• Two Session Up Close OR Two Session Down Close. (1.1 + 1.2)
• AM Rally and PM Reversal OR AM Decline and PM Reversal. (2.1 + 2.2)
• Consolidation AM Rally and PM Decline OR Consolidation AM Decline and PM Rally. (3.1 + 3.2)

1.1    Two Session Up Close (Trend Day ≈ 10% of all trading days)

If we are in the middle of an intermediate or long term price swing based on what we would see on the HTF (Higher timeframes = 4 hour, daily, weekly, monthly) chart, this is the classic scenario. When we start approaching HTF opposing arrays, this profile is less likely to occur. The daily range can go straight trough the lunch hour with very little consolidation whatsoever, depending on what the catalyst was that send prices higher it could be a very strong economic news release. Don't think we’ll always get the consolidation in lunch hour, if we move higher fast there is a chance they work trough lunch. PM session would be ideal if its symmetrical to the AM session.

• Institutional Order Flow (IOF): Bullish.
• AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then rallies.
• Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
• PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Lows [Sell Stops] OR Drops into a Fair Value (FV) Discount Array then rallies into Close.

 1.2    Two Session Down Close (Trend Day ≈ 10% of all trading days)

If we are in the middle of an intermediate or long term price swing based on what we would see on the HTF chart, this is the classic scenario. When we start approaching HTF opposing arrays, this profile is less likely to occur.

 

• Institutional Order Flow: Bearish.
• AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then declines.
• Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
• PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Highs [Buy Stops] OR Rises into a Fair Value Discount Array then declines into Close.
  

 

Tips for Two Session Up Close OR Two Session Down Close = trending days:
► When daily and 4H institutional order flow is bullish (two session up close)/bearish (two session down close).
► If we're in the middle of an intermediate term or long term price swing based on what we see on the HTF chart, then this is the classic scenario until we start approaching an opposing array on the 4h/daily/weekly. PM session would be ideal if its symmetrical to the AM session (measured move).
► The daily range can go straight through the lunch hour with very little consolidation whatsoever, depending on what the catalyst was that send prices higher it could be a very strong or surprised economic news release.
► Don't think we'll always get the consolidation in lunch hour, if we move higher fast there's a chance they work through lunch.
► ► How to trade: ICT always looks for SMT (Smart Money Tool / Smart Money Technique) between the 3 indices at the lows/highs on both sessions.
AM SMT: compare London lows/highs and 9:30 am lows/highs.
PM SMT: compare lunch lows/highs and the high/low formed from the 13:00 candle. One has to diverge.
AM session hold till about 10:30-11:00 and also look for 15m PD arrays.
PM session: besides the SMT we can also return to FVG or OB formed in lunch hour.

2.1    AM Rally PM Reversal (Typical Day ≈ 25% of all trading days)

Price is yet to fulfill a completion of a bullish run, but very close to where we are presently there is a higher time frame premium PD (Premium/Discount) array. The session will start off bullish until it hits the HTF PD array which causes the intraday market reversal.

 

• Institutional Order Flow: Bullish - under HTF Premium-Discount Array.
• AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then rallies.
• Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
• PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Highs [Buy Stops] and reverses into Close OR Runs the Intraday High and then reverses into Close.
• PM Trend can resume higher if AM session Discount = HTF.

 

2.2   AM Decline and PM Reversal (Typical Day ≈ 25% of all trading days)

 

• Institutional Order Flow: Bearish (IOF) - above HTF Discount Premium/Discount Array.
  AM Trend: Returns to a Premium Array then declines.
• Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
• PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Lows [Sell Stops] and then reverses into Close OR Runs the Intraday Lows and then reverses into Close..
• PM Trend can resume lower if AM session Premium = HTF. 

 

Tips for AM Rally PM reversal (bullish)/AM Decline PM reversal (bearish):
► When daily and 4H institutional order flow is bullish/bearish and price is near a 4H/daily TF PD array, so this model is the completion of a run. AM session is bullish/bearish until it hits the HTF pd array which causes the intraday market reversal.
► In the AM scenario you first drop into a 1H or 4H discount (bullish) / premium (bearish), then rally into HTF PD array (4H/daily/weekly).
Smart money reversal (SMR) - PM trend could either

- Run out the AM high/low and then rally or make a LH when it reverses. Just a run above a STH is also possible.
- Be just a retracement into the AM range and then continue HTF trend or really reverse on HTF. How do we know which one the PM trend will do? The PM session can resume higher/lower (reversal) if the AM session premium array equals a higher timeframe (4H, daily, weekly, monthly) premium array, it can go back into that array in PM and recapitalize that and then go lower and resume lower. If that’s NOT the case we can expect price to continue until we reach that HTF array.

► ► How to trade: ICT always looks for SMT between the 3 indices at the lows/highs on both sessions.

AM SMT: compare London lows/highs and 9:30 lows/highs. PM SMT: compare lunch lows/highs and the high/low formed from the 13:00 candle. One has to diverge. So in the bearish scenario: If the AM high around 10:30am EST but often closer to 11:00 is below a 15m or the PD array, then we're going to be anticipating, before it even happens, outside the London lunch around 1 pm an initial rally into the 15m PD array followed by a HTF reversal. So in the AM session we're going to be holding our trade until there.
PM SMT: try to hold until 15:00 at least. If price is in the premium of the AM dealing range, we could see price continue lower/higher (when the premium array is not a HTF premium array), otherwise price will reverse there.

 

3.1    Consolidation AM Rally PM Decline (Trading Range /Neutral Day ≈ 35% of all trading days)

If unsure of what the IOF of the current day is or where we are relative to Premium/Discount on Daily/4h, chances are we likely see this scenario - especially if there is no high/medium impact news expected during 10am or later in the day.

• Institutional Order Flow: Neutral.
  
• AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then rallies OR expands Higher from Equilibrium to run London session Buy Stops.
• Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
• PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Highs [Buy Stops] and then reaches for Day's Sell Stops OR Runs the Intraday High and then reaches for ID/London session Sell Stops. PM Trend can simply consolidate into Close after Lunch Hour.
  

3.2    Consolidation AM Decline PM Rally (Trading Range / Neutral Day ≈ 35% of all trading days)

If unsure of what the Institutional Order Flow of the current day is or where we are relative to Premium/Discount on Daily/4h, chances are we likely see this scenario - especially if there is no high/medium impact news expected during 10am or later in the day.

• Institutional Order Flow: Neutral.
• AM Trend: Returns to a Premium Array then declines OR expands Lower from Equilibrium to run London session Sell Stops.
• Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
• PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Lows [Sell Stops] and then reaches for Day's Buy Stops OR Runs the Intraday Low and then reaches for the Intraday London session Buy Stops.
• PM Trend can simply consolidate into Close after Lunch Hour. 

Tips for Consolidation AM Rally and PM Decline / Consolidation AM Decline and PM Rally:

► In this scenario Institutional Order Flow is neutral or unclear where we're at relative to premium or discount on 4H or daily. This scenario happens a lot in index trading which can be frustrating if you don’t know the mechanics behind it. When there's a strong directional bias behind the marketplace or the underlying meanings of the market suggest higher/lower prices, DO NOT look for this scenario. This is not seek and destroy (NFP), this is simply consolidation. This happens when there’s a lack of news or trend.

AM: price returns to a premium/discount then rallies OR after the first hour of the opening range or expands higher from EQ to run SSL/BSL (Buy Side Liquidity/Sell Side Liquidity)from London or intraday.
PM: 2 scenario’s —> 1. Run on lunch hour highs/lows then rally for AM session BSL/SSL or 2. run intraday high/lows and then run for intraday or London SSL/BSL.

► ► How to trade: Which one is it going to do, lunch highs/lows or AM SSL/BSL? We are going to be looking for a 15m PD array inside a 4h/Daily PD array. So the HTF confluence is the catalyst for the reversal. If that PD Array was already reached in AM, PM will just run out lunch hour highs/lows.

If the PM session takes lunch hour SSL/BSL or AM session SSL/BSL is dependent on the AM session BSL/SSL. If these lows/highs reached into a 15m PD array inside a 4h/Daily PD array PM will just run out lunch hour highs/lows.

How to know if the PM session will run lunch or intraday highs?

HTF PD array hit in AM session = Lunch highs likely to be run.
HTF PD array NOT hit in AM session= PM session  could run the intraday high, hit the HTF Premium array, and then reverse.

 

Quoted from:
Michael J. Huddleston (2017) - ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 10 - Index Futures - Projected Range & Objectives. (video) 

 

See also:

 Darya Filipenka (2023) - ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 10 - Index Futures - Index Trade Setups.

Darya Filipenka (2023) - ICT Deep Dive Into Institutional Order Flow.

 Michael J. Huddleston (2015) - ICT Intraday Trading Templates.