Showing posts with label Stacey Burke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stacey Burke. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Smart Money Concepts: An 80-Year History | Stacey Burke

Nothing changes on Wall Street. Markets continue to do the same three things they have always done: they break out and continue, they break out and fail, or they remain in a higher-time-frame trading range. That leaves two primary setups: pump-coil-dump and dump-coil-pump—or no trade. The real battle lies within the trader—fighting human impulses, emotions, and random erratic behavior. Mastery comes from applying simple, repeating concepts through a daily process that identifies two to three potentially scalable opportunities each week, or focused "nail-and-bail" session trades.

Pump-Coil-Dump and Dump-Coil-Pump Templates.
 
Lessons from Mentors with Centuries of Experience
This approach draws on instruction received over the years from mentors including Peter Brandt, Edwards and Magee, Richard Schabacker, Bill McLaren, Brent Penfold, and Stuart Moore. Collectively these individuals represent more than 300 years of real-life trading experience—much of it gained in the pits, on hand-drawn charts, and by executing orders over the phone to brokers. Nothing has changed. The same patterns that appeared 80 years ago appear today. There is nothing new in the markets, only new gurus and new suckers. 
» Being flat is a position. A difficult but necessary component for success is an extreme amount of patience, waiting and waiting for a pattern to become fully mature—and then the discipline to pull the trigger. There will always be another good set up—in fact, always much better set ups. « 
Peter Brandt on the Reality of Trading
Peter Brandt's writing crystallizes points many traders still struggle with. On page 8 of his book he states that trading is an upstream swim against human emotions and that consistently successful trading is a tough job—if it were easy, everyone would do it for a living. Successful speculation, he emphasizes, is mostly about managing risk; good traders view themselves first and foremost as risk managers.

» Good traders view themselves first
and foremost as risk managers. «
 
On page 16 he notes that successful market speculation is a craft requiring extensive, ongoing apprenticeship in the school of hard knocks. It must address many aspects of market behavior as well as self-knowledge and mastery. In the final sentence of that section he observes that the human factor is seldom mentioned in trading books, yet it is the single most important component of consistently profitable market operations.
 
The Only Question That Matters: What Is Your Edge?
The same cycles repeat in every market. The most useful question a trader can ask is: "What setup am I hunting?" There is nothing new. Traders are constantly snowballed with fairy tales from new gurus who appear every week. Markets do not change; they only do three things. The flood of conflicting information creates analysis paralysis.

» What setup am I hunting? «
 
Traders born after 2000 often lack sufficient market experience and are led to believe that trading every minute detail on tiny time frames is their edge. In reality they face information overload, take too many trades, over-leverage, and never trade meaningful size. Trading small accounts on 15-second charts may feel productive, but it is rarely scalable.
 
Charts themselves are not the be-all and end-all. They are simply a tool for managing risk, identifying an entry when an edge appears, and defining an area for taking profits. Classical charting principles supply entry, risk management, and a profit-extraction method. The critical question remains: What is your edge? What do you do that is simple, repeatable, and scalable? If you cannot answer that clearly, you are most likely stuck in the retail cycle of winning some, losing some, briefly believing you have "got it," then either damaging the account or remaining trapped in analysis paralysis. 

» It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.
Got that? My sitting tight! Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.
I found it one of the hardest things. «

Managing Yourself Between the Setups
You make money on the setups and on the days when it is easy to make money. That has nothing to do with personal brilliance or market magic; it comes from executing a clear process—entry, risk management, profit target—and then walking away. The daily battle is forcing yourself to stop taking random, impulsive, emotional, tape-reading, or pure price-action trades that fall outside your edge.

» Days when it is easy to make money. «

Doing something for a long time does not equal craftsmanship, performance, or discipline. What matters is daily attention to process, continuous improvement, and knowing what NOT to do. Once you recognize that the only real problem in trading is the person staring back from the mirror, the institutional behaviors that repeat across every market become visible. If your edge is not simple, repeatable, and scalable, trading may simply not be for you.

Nothing New: Classical Charting and Institutional Behavior

Peter Brandt remains a master craftsman anchored in half a century of real trading. He still works from daily, weekly, and monthly consolidations using classical charting principles. The same principles appear in Schabacker's work from the 1930s and in Edwards and Magee's "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" from the 1940s.  

Pump-Coil-Dump Template in the daily USDJPY, July 2026.

A practical weekly process narrows breakout trading to a daily signal and then looks for the intraday template (pump-coil-dump or dump-coil-pump) that sets up in a specific session. Institutions work from price levels. Algorithms, HFTs, quant desks, and order-flow all reference those levels. There is no need for invented candlestick names or elaborate fairy tales. Mark the first trading day of a new month and the high/low of the new week. Watch whether a breakout succeeds or fails. Look for the two templates—buy low or sell high—when they present. Six instruments on a watch list is enough; two or three quality opportunities in a week is the goal.
 
A text-book Schabacker, Edwards and Magee Bullish Rectangle breakout with
a small "cup-and-handle". Higher timeframes always dominate lower ones.
Toby Crabel's opening-range works, Paul Tudor Jones's observations on range expansion, and the classic rectangle consolidations described by Brandt all point to the same reality. Price is always in a box. A 100 percent expansion of a prior range is not Fibonacci mysticism; it is classical measurement. Highest closing price of the month, high-of-week level, and simple 50 percent retracements of a range are visible to anyone who looks. Nothing is hidden.
 
» Most successful investors, in fact, do nothing most of the time. I just wait until there
is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up.
I do nothing in the meantime. 
«

Discipline Over Instant Gratification
A friend who trades only reversals after 10:00 a.m. New York time (the third hour) demonstrates the power of a narrow, rinse-and-repeat edge. He does not chase every move; he waits for the same setup two or three times a week. That approach can produce "month money" from a single well-sized trade. Chasing algorithmic noise on tiny time frames is the retail trap that keeps traders small and inconsistent.

Trap-and-Shift Template: Institutional Behavior in the daily NASDAQ, July 2026.
 
Richard Dennis observed that you could publish the rules in a newspaper and almost no one would follow them. Consistency and the discipline to sit on your hands between high-probability setups are the real edge. Fifty-fifty coin-flip trades are losers; they are guesses. Capital is preserved for the infrequent moments when the market offers a clear, scalable opportunity.

The Trader Is the Only Variable
All markets will continue to do the same three things they have always done. If a method is simple, it can be repeated. If it has genuine edge, it can be scaled. Keep it simple. As Mark Douglas wrote, the goal is to create a state of mind that is unaffected by the market’s day-to-day behavior. That state begins with knowing exactly what you are hunting, executing it with discipline, and refusing to take the random trades that destroy accounts.
 

Monday, July 27, 2026

Institutional Players Trade Levels—Retail Chases Price Action | Stacey Burke

All trading instruments operate within institutional price grids, where price is consistently contained inside an "institutional price box" defined by key numerical levels, typically anchored around major round numbers (e.g., 100, 250, 500, 1000). These levels act as liquidity magnets where large players accumulate, distribute, and size positions.  
 
» Pump, coil, and dump. The institutional price level is the neckline.
That is where the interaction matters, not the candle-by-candle narratives. «
Institutional players do not enter randomly or at arbitrary prices; they build positions around key levels and broader higher-time-frame zones shaped by mandates. They do not speculate. They do not day trade. They are engaged in global macroeconomic rebalancing, currency hedging, and sovereign capital extraction. Unlike retail traders, they execute large blocks of volume within these areas, creating an objective, non-random market framework visible across all instruments.  
 

»  Train your eyes to move horizontally at the levels.
What’s the level? Where to get in is staring you in the face. «
 
Markets move primarily through the behavior of Tier 1 and Tier 2 institutional participantsTier 1 operators and their proxies (Bank for International Settlements (BIS), International Monetary Fund (IMF), central banks, sovereign wealth funds, major funds, and large liquidity providers) do not "trade." They do not use stop-losses nor technical indicators. They deploy capital in tranches so massive that, if executed at market price, they would break the global financial system
 
Tier 2 institutions (mega-banks like JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, UBS, LBMA, ICBC Standard Bank, major clearinghouses, highly sophisticated algorithmic HFT firms) provide liquidity, while hedge funds and other position traders operate around these key price levels. Their algorithms, including high-frequency trading systems, execute these processes; they are not interpreting candlestick patterns or trading short-term price action.

  
» The Dow 30 (5-minute chart) on Friday, July 16, 2026Three levels of dump, coil, and pump. The Dow closed within an institutional price grid box, then dumped into the next lower grid level before exploding at the New York open—a trap on the open, then the shift. «
Higher-time-frame institutional price boundaries at major numerical levels act as triggers, attracting other position traders, hedge funds, and large market participants into the market. What appears as conventional price action, candlestick formations, and short-term market noise is often merely "retail fog"—a distraction that obscures the underlying institutional positioning and liquidity dynamics.

Order Flow Cycle.

The market continuously reveals these important price levels. There is nothing mystical or magical about them; they reflect the observable mechanics of liquidity, positioning, institutional order flow, and large-scale execution behavior. When liquidity is built, price coils sideways, and then it goes back and gets the money. The algorithm is there to get participation—to get you to play the game—and to build liquidity for the opposite side of the institutional agenda. The mechanism runs through those levels.

 
 
» If it is simple, you can repeat it, and scale it up in size. « 

It doesn’t matter what the instrument is. The behavior repeats: pump, coil, and dump—or dump, coil, and pump. The level is the neckline. That is where the interaction matters, not the candle-by-candle narratives.

Retail traders are obsessed with catching the low or catching the high. They're mesmerized by candlesticks and price action. A lot of traders are glazed over in a retail fog and don’t understand that institutions are not chasing fairy tales. The result is random, degenerate, emotional, impulsive behavior—winning streaks followed by blowing the account out. It's not about trying to figure out the algorithm; it's a mindset shift. 
 

Friday, April 17, 2026

S&P 500 Strong Breakout Above All-Time High | Al Brooks

The daily chart of the SPY has broken above the all-time high. While this is positive for the bulls, the rally is becoming increasingly climactic, raising the likelihood of near-term profit-taking. Today is forming a climactic bull bar following yesterday's doji bull bar. That doji increases the probability of a pullback to yesterday's high within the next one to three trading days.
 
SPY (daily bars) — Close as of Friday, April 17, 2026: Three pushes and daily closes above the January all-time high.

» There are a lot of varying opinions about how the market moves, such as the Wyckoff method, Elliott Waves, Stacey Burke Trading, Steve Mauro’s BTMM, etc. However, one thing that all of these methods and models have in common is that the market moves in three pushes. After the third push in one direction, price typically moves into consolidation. During the second push, retail traders often assume the trend will continue and rush in. This creates a trap, where liquidity builds through clustered entries and stop-loss orders during the consolidation phase. By the third push, price is often already forming part of a broader peak (or trough) reversal pattern. « 
Cameron Benson, 2023.
The bulls are hoping for a close near today’s high, above the prior all-time high, while the bears are aiming for a selloff that leaves a tail above today's bar. Overall, the bulls have managed the rally well; however, it is now reaching a climactic stage, and risk for bulls is elevated. This increases the odds of a pullback over the next several bars and may limit further upside in the coming days as bulls begin taking partial profits.

Three weekly pushes off the March 30-31 major low and reversal.

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Price Action Patterns & Entries at High and Low of the Day | Cameron Benson

Our focus is on price action trading at key levels: daily high and low, and the previous day's extremes. We examine how price reaches these levels — through Stair-Stepping or Ramping — and its subsequent behavior. The price action patterns include M's, W's, Double Tops/Bottoms, and Pin Hammers at daily highs and lows. 
 
 Stair-Stepping and M Patterns: These indicate potential reversals at daily highs or lows, 
with detailed entries and exits often managed through lower time frames.

Ramping is characterized by parabolic price movements and often leads to swift reversals. Observing tight candle patterns with minimal overlap helps identify strong trends and potential breakouts. We also look for specific patterns like Stair-Stepping and Three Pushes, with Peak Formations signaling possible reversals.

 
 Ramping Behavior: Recognized by tight, parabolic moves followed by rapid reversals. 
The ramp into extremes usually signals significant price shifts.


The following 5 minute charts of the NASDAQ are from last week
(September  9-13, 2024). They show Entry and Exit Strategies, using Pin Hammers and Engulfments for Entries, and managing stops based on price action, with adjustments for larger, more volatile bars.

Monday, September  9 (Day 1 of 3 Day Cycle):
 
 Identified an M pattern at the high of the day with a pin hammer and engulfment, suggesting a strong short entry.

Tuesday, September  10 (Day 2):

 
Despite a promising setup, a large entry bar resulted in a stop-out. 
Emphasis on avoiding large entry bars and managing risk.
 
Wednesday, September 11 (Day 3/1)
 
 Similar to previous days with M patterns and engulfments, also highlighting entry points and risk management.

Thursday (Day 2) and Friday (Day 3), September 12-13:
 
 Charts show patterns like descending triangles and W formations, 
with a focus on understanding price behavior relative to session timings.
 
Successful short-term trading relies on recognizing and acting upon the above presented price action patterns, managing entries and exits based on contextual behavior, and adapting strategies according to the specific market conditions within the 3 Day Cycle.
 

Thursday, September 5, 2024

On Range Expansion, Monkey Hammers, FAFO & NFP Weeks | Stacey Burke

» When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal 
that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion. «     
 —  Paul Tudor Jones 
  
» FAFO [F*** Around and Find Out] is when you try and scalp the high or scalp the low - or jump in because a market is moving - because something is up high or down low. If other time frame traders are driving the move ... be careful - that's called FAFO and is not a specific 90/10 easy money making trading setup. That's called gambling.

If the train has left the station ... find your next best candidate for your session that was on your watchlist. How is price behaving in the timing window - at the levels? No 90/10 easy money best playbook trading setup that you can see that is from your rinse and repeat templates? Then shut it down and walk away - or do what the experts do and hunt for science projects.

Behaviour of the trader - mindset of the trader - best 90/10 easy money playbook trading setup - timings - levels - behaviour of price - execution skills of the trader - behaviour of the trader after the trade is completed. Rin$e and repeat means exactly that ... same setups over and over and over again .
«
    — Stacey Burke

 
» It's a Non-Farm Payrolls week - don't be surprised to see a four-day template. The day count doesn't change. Wednesday was the reset day, and now we are in the backside of the week. We might get a monkey hammer on Thursday, and Friday setting up a Non-Farm Payrolls bounce trade. «     — Stacey Burke
 
 

Fed Chair Powell's promise to lower rates may trigger market reversals (HERE & HERE & HERE).

See also: