The daily chart of the SPY has broken above the all-time high. While this is positive for the bulls, the rally is becoming increasingly climactic, raising the likelihood of near-term profit-taking. Today is forming a climactic bull bar following yesterday's doji bull bar. That doji increases the probability of a pullback to yesterday's high within the next one to three trading days.
The bulls are hoping for a close near today’s high, above the prior all-time high, while the bears are aiming for a selloff that leaves a tail above today's bar. Overall, the bulls have managed the rally well; however, it is now reaching a climactic stage, and risk for bulls is elevated. This increases the odds of a pullback over the next several bars and may limit further upside in the coming days as bulls begin taking partial profits.» There are a lot of varying opinions about how the market moves, such as the Wyckoff method, Elliott Waves, Stacey Burke Trading, Steve Mauro’s BTMM, etc. However, one thing that all of these methods and models have in common is that the market moves in three pushes. After the third push in one direction, price typically moves into consolidation. During the second push, retail traders often assume the trend will continue and rush in. This creates a trap, where liquidity builds through clustered entries and stop-loss orders during the consolidation phase. By the third push, price is often already forming part of a broader peak (or trough) reversal pattern. «Cameron Benson, 2023.
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