The present study compares the serial years of the average solar cycle with the arithmetic mean values of the effective US Federal Funds Rate for the period 1955–2025.
Serial Numbers of Solar Cycle years (1 to 13) and Federal Funds Rates (%) projected through 2031.
[...] The
correlation between the serial number of solar cycle years and average
Fed rates is extremely strong, with coefficients reaching -0.999 during years 5–7 and 0.994 during years 1–5. The serial number for
the year 2026 in the current Solar Cycle 25 is 7. [...] Consequently, the forecasted Fed rate for 2026 is [...] 3.052%. The forecasted Fed rate for 2027 is [...] 3.558%.
[According to Belkin's methodology, the Fed rate should rise and peak in 2029 at around 5.5%.]
Reference:
Vladimir A. Belkin (January 1, 2026) - Federal Funds Rates and Solar Activity (1955–2025): Evidence of a Very High Correlation.
[СТАВКИ ПО ФЕДЕРАЛЬНЫМ ФОНДАМ И СОЛНЕЧНАЯ АКТИВНОСТЬ (1955-2025): ДОКАЗАТЕЛЬСТВО ОЧЕНЬ ВЫСОКОЙ КОРРЕЛЯЦИИ.]
Vladimir A. Belkin (January 1, 2026) - Federal Funds Rates and Solar Activity (1955–2025): Evidence of a Very High Correlation.
[СТАВКИ ПО ФЕДЕРАЛЬНЫМ ФОНДАМ И СОЛНЕЧНАЯ АКТИВНОСТЬ (1955-2025): ДОКАЗАТЕЛЬСТВО ОЧЕНЬ ВЫСОКОЙ КОРРЕЛЯЦИИ.]
[Note: As of May 1, 2026, the Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%., with the most recent daily effective federal funds rate (EFFR) recorded at 3.64%.]
