Showing posts with label Helioeconomics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Helioeconomics. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Solar Cycles and Inflation-Adjusted Gold Price Forecasting | Vladimir Belkin

Vladimir Belkin's latest study quantifies the relationship between solar activity and the inflation-adjusted price of Gold (1968–2025) within a Jevons–Chizhevsky analytical framework. By synchronizing real Gold prices with the ordinal structure of solar cycles—measured via sunspot (Wolf) numbers—it identifies a strong and statistically significant fit (R² = 0.9081, p = 0.0115), implying that approximately 90.8% of the variance in real Gold prices is explained by his solar-cycle model. 
 
Grouping of data by ordinal numbers of years in solar activity cycles (1968–2025).
Grouping of data by ordinal numbers of years in solar activity cycles (1968–2025).
 
Rather than implying direct causation, the results point to a cyclical transmission mechanism in which solar rhythms embed and modulate underlying economic periodicities, notably Kitchin- and Juglar-type cycles, thereby acting as a structural driver of long-term commodity price behavior.
 
Ordinal years of the mean solar cycle and inflation-adjusted Gold prices (1968–2025); superposed epoch analysis of 58 years of observations.
Ordinal years of the mean solar cycle and inflation-adjusted Gold prices
(1968–2025); superposed epoch analysis of 58 years of observations.

The model integrates CPI-adjusted Gold price data with a superposed epoch framework, aligning multiple solar cycles into a normalized temporal structure and fitting a 6th-degree polynomial to capture the nonlinear progression of price behavior across cycle phases (chart above). This produces a phase-sensitive waveform that preserves both timing and amplitude characteristics of historical Gold price movements relative to the solar cycle. The robustness of the fit suggests a stable coupling between solar variability and macro-financial conditions—likely mediated through liquidity, inflation expectations, and broader cyclical economic regimes.

The study advances beyond descriptive correlation to a deterministic forecasting model. Each calendar year is mapped to its corresponding position within Solar Cycle 25, and forward price projections are derived using empirically observed year-to-year transition ratios embedded in the cycle structure.
Within this framework, 2026 (cycle year 7) implies a contraction in real Gold prices to approximately $2,536.35/oz (0.70 × $3,623.36), followed by 2027 (year 8) with a modest recovery to $2,587.08/oz (1.02 × prior year). 
This projected path is consistent with the transition from peak solar activity into the declining phase of the cycle, which historically coincides with reduced upside momentum, elevated volatility, or corrective dynamics in real Gold prices.

For the post-2025 horizon, the model therefore implies a nonlinear, wave-structured trajectory rather than a sustained directional trend: late-cycle topping behavior into the solar maximum, followed by cyclical deceleration into the late 2020s, and eventual reacceleration as the next solar minimum-to-maximum sequence unfolds. 
 
Forecasted development of the current Solar Cycle 25 (NASA).
Forecasted development of the current Solar Cycle 25 (NASA).
 
These projections remain conditional on three factors: the accuracy of solar cycle forecasts, the stability of the regression relationship, and the interaction with concurrent macroeconomic cycles. Within those constraints, the framework offers a high-coherence, quantitatively grounded method for translating solar-cycle dynamics directly into forward estimates of inflation-adjusted Gold prices.

Reference:
 
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The extension of Belkin’s inflation-adjusted Gold price forecast through 2032 applies the same chaining methodology, using average ratios from column 5 in his table above and starting from $3,623.36 in 2025. Solar Cycle 25 began in 2019–2020 (2020 = Year 1) and is expected to end around 2030–2031, with Cycle 26 beginning. 
  
Inflation-adjusted Gold price forecast through 2032.
 
The resulting forecasts are 2025 at $3,623.36, 2026 at $2,536.35, 2027 at $2,587.08, 2028 at $2,664.69, 2029 at $3,011.10, 2030 at $3,462.77, 2031 at $2,735.59, and 2032 at $3,474.20. 
 
 
Inflation-adjusted Gold price will likely peak around 2033-2034.
  
The method is unchanged, with 2026–2027 matching Belkin's paper exactly. 2031 is the Cycle 25 minimum, and 2032 begins Cycle 26 using the average Year 1–to–Year 12 ratio. All figures are real (inflation-adjusted) and reflect the typical decline into solar minimum followed by a rebound. This is a statistical historical correlation; Gold prices are also driven by other factors, and Belkin’s solar cycle timing carries an uncertainty of about ±1 year.
 
See also:

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Three Major War Cycles Converging 2027–2032 | Richard Smith

Richard Smith, CEO, Chairman of the Board, and Executive Director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, presented research on long-term cycles in war and human conflict. His analysis reveals deep interconnections between warfare, economic activity, food production, and solar phenomena, potentially mediated by solar radiation and Earth’s geomagnetic influences on biological and social systems.

» All three cycle families show rising phase conditions in the current window. A convergence appears around 2027-2032. «
16-year Dewey cycle (brown) | 26-year Mogey cycle (red) | 63-year long-wave (blue)
 
Building on the Foundation's archives and the work of Edward R. Dewey (1895–1978) and Raymond H. Wheeler (1892–1961), Smith's analysis revives and extends early 20th-century cycles research using modern tools, including AI-assisted digitization and the Foundation's Cycle Analyzer. Wheeler's landmark dataset spans roughly 2,600 years (from 600 BC onward), meticulously documenting and ranking battles by severity. Dewey, motivated by his experiences in World War I and II, identified recurring rhythms across diverse phenomena to better understand and potentially mitigate societal calamities.

Dewey observed a prominent 54-year cycle manifesting across multiple domains—including international battles, wheat prices, sunspots, tree rings, and financial instruments—with major peaks in 1917, 1971, and a projected crest in 2025. He also highlighted a 17.7-year cycle in warfare data derived from Wheeler's records through 1957. Projections of this cycle similarly converge on 2025. Unlike much of today's single-series technical analysis, Dewey's approach emphasized cycles that appeared independently across unrelated phenomena. The consistent recurrence of the same wavelengths across disparate datasets served as strong evidence of meaningful underlying rhythms.
 
» The entire vast area of human madness. «
Alexander L. Chizhevsky, 1922.

Smith has validated and extended this historical research with contemporary conflict datasets, including the Correlates of War (COW) Project, battle-related deaths statistics, and the UCDP Conflict Data Project. He also incorporated long-term economic and solar series such as wheat prices (from 1259), commodities, gold, silver, and sunspot records. Statistical analysis confirms several robust cycle families appearing consistently across war, economic, agricultural, and solar data:
 
16–20 year cycle (≈18 years, the Dewey cycle)
28–30 year cycle (Mogey cycle)
39–40 year cycle
56–60 year cycle
85–100 year cycle 

These cycles frequently achieve high statistical significance (often 90%+ on Bartels tests) across independent datasets. Smith's chart above titled "Three Cycles Rising — Where Are We Now?" illustrates the combined phasing of the three most prominent cycles from 1975 to 2035:

16-year Dewey cycle (brown)
26-year Mogey cycle (red)
63-year long-wave (blue)
 
Smith's analysis indicates that the three major war cycles will converge in a synchronized uptrend between 2027 and 2032, suggesting elevated risks of conflict, instability, and related phenomena into the early 2030s, with broader peaks potentially extending toward 2040.
 
 
  
» The tallest peak, and hence the strongest average cycle, is at the 4th fraction of 214 years (top scale), or 53.5 years (bottom scale). [...] Could this cycle be the well-established 54-year cycle? «
Edward Dewey, 1967.
"Cycles in War and Peace" by Richard Mogey (Cycles, Vol. 41, No. 1, 1990).
 
CIA. 9 October 1953. CONFIDENTIAL. 
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE.
SUBJECT: Mr. Edward R. Dewey - Cycles Analysis.
 
See also:
  
Published during World War II in 1943, this info chart "Business Booms and Depressions Since 1775" reflects an era when
US corporations and financial institutions were striving to forecast, adapt to, and navigate the looming postwar economy.

Friday, May 1, 2026

Federal Funds Rates & Solar Activity: Projection through 2031 | Vladimir Belkin

The present study compares the serial years of the average solar cycle with the arithmetic mean values of the effective US Federal Funds Rate for the period 1955–2025. 

Serial Numbers of Solar Cycle years (1 to 13) and Federal Funds Rates (%) projected through 2031. 
 
[...] The correlation between the serial number of solar cycle years and average Fed rates is extremely strong, with coefficients reaching -0.999 during years 5–7 and 0.994 during years 1–5. The serial number for the year 2026 in the current Solar Cycle 25 is 7. [...] Consequently, the forecasted Fed rate for 2026 is [...] 3.052%. The forecasted Fed rate for 2027 is [...] 3.558%
 
[According to Belkin's methodology, the Fed rate should rise and peak in 2029 at around 5.5%.]

Reference:
Vladimir A. Belkin (January 1, 2026) -  Federal Funds Rates and Solar Activity (1955–2025): Evidence of a Very High Correlation.
[СТАВКИ ПО ФЕДЕРАЛЬНЫМ ФОНДАМ И СОЛНЕЧНАЯ АКТИВНОСТЬ (1955-2025): ДОКАЗАТЕЛЬСТВО ОЧЕНЬ ВЫСОКОЙ КОРРЕЛЯЦИИ.
[Note: As of May 1, 2026, the Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%., with the most recent daily effective federal funds rate (EFFR) recorded at 3.64%.]

Wednesday, January 21, 2026

"Does the Son of the Dust Know Anything More Beautiful?" | Einar Ben

Following the intense Northern Lights displays triggered by a G4 geomagnetic storm on January 19, 2026, forecasts now predict a Kp index of 4 for January 21. These auroras are currently visible across Iceland, Greenland, and the northern parts of Scandinavia, Russia, Canada and Alaska.
 
 Iceland, January 20, 2026.
 
» Does the son of the dust know anything more beautiful
than the palace of gods in electronic flames?
By the universe bosom everything is fire
and decoration of slithering northern lights.
From the seventh heaven to the ocean’s horizon... «

Friday, January 9, 2026

"Space-Time Forecasting of Economic Trends" | Muriel and Louis Hasbrouck

The Space-Time Structure, pioneered by the multidisciplinary partnership of Muriel and Louis Hasbrouck, functions as a sophisticated theoretical framework that interprets economic fluctuations through natural wave patterns and solar-electromagnetic forces. Muriel Elizabeth Bruce Hasbrouck (1890-1981), a Canadian scholar of comparative philosophy, intellectually shaped by Walter Russell's cosmogony, and author of the personality study "Pursuit of Destiny," provided the foundational insight into human behavior. 
 
Each 35.8-year cyclic wave from C crest to C crest is divided into 12 periods, covering about 3 years each (2.983 years, 35.796 months, or 1,089.51 days). The C to D period represents uncertainty and fear (as in 1930–1933). D to E brings temporary recovery (as in 1936). F to G is a time of reconstruction wherein psychological factors of the new trend appear (as in 1940–1953). From G, the pull from the peak ahead at C is clearly evident. Minor adjustments at A and B often are misread as threatening a depression (as in 1957 and 1962).
Her 1940 discovery, co-developed with her husband Abraham Louis M. Hasbrouck (1890-1979), established a predictive index for timing radio transmission disturbances—initially tested with Bell Telephone Laboratories—which later expanded to forecast earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, solar flares, and even missile launch failures in the early 1960s. They changed tracks when Louis noticed that many of the dates that Muriel generated coincided with stock market moves. Their scientific rigor was balanced by Louis, a Yale-educated Canadian World War I pilot and World War II officer with a deep background in finance. Having mastered investment at Bonbright and Company before becoming an independent counsel, Louis dedicated himself from 1930 onward to uncovering the natural laws underlying market fluctuations and shifting economic trends.  

 » Economically, it is a WAVE PATTERN of changing trends in collective instinct. «
 
Together, they conceptualized the universe as operating via rhythmic energy waves that constitute a persistent "Field" surrounding Earth. This field is continuously modulated by solar activity, planetary movements, and geomagnetic disturbances, creating a "wave pattern in time" that evokes biological and psychological responses in all living entities. Unlike mechanical or deterministic models, these waves do not repeat in identical cycles; rather, each represents a unique evolutionary progression within natural and human systems. Louis and Muriel Hasbrouck’s Space-Time Forecasting is a long-range economic and market forecasting system based on the premise that future conditions influence the present, rather than markets being driven solely by past data. 
 
The system holds that the Sun is a pulsating electromagnetic source whose energy radiates rhythmically through space, forming a dominant 35.8-year wave with embedded subcycles—most notably a nine-year rhythm divided into building, peak, and declining phases corresponding to economic expansion, inflation, and contraction. Planetary bodies do not cause events directly and are not interpreted symbolically; instead, their electromagnetic fields modulate and channel the solar field, altering the timing and intensity of energy reaching Earth. These interactions generate wave-like disturbances that affect all terrestrial systems, including collective human psychology.
Space-Time Trend Waves represent the changing flow of human energy and motivation at the socio-economic level. Each Wave follows an orderly, recognizable course from one peak of prosperity (C) to the next in about 36 years. Each Wave is divided into 12 interim phases averaging 3 years each, which can be qualitatively evaluated.
 Legend:
C Wave Crest, Prosperity Peak, followed by REVERSAL to D.
D to E Temporary Recovery.
F to G Start of rise toward next peak, with intimations of qualities of the new, incoming trend (as from 1941 to 1953).
G Activation of new trend toward next peak C.
A & B Minor interruptions of upward trend (as in 1957 and 1962).
C Wave Crest, Prosperity Peak.
History shows that during the reversal of trend following each Wave crest (C) new attitudes develop—social, political, and economic. This, as the Space-Time Structure of History reveals, is an important key to the evolution of civilization. Not only history, but modern science today substantiates the application of the Space-Time Structure as a unified field involving a natural linkage between space, time, and human behaviour. A "new hypothesis" in physics declares that such a linkage exists, that the mind of man and the wave properties of the electron are two extremes of the same thing, and that the "wave of the future" can be perceived in the evolutionary structure of the field.
Human behavior, mass sentiment, and markets are treated as electrical systems embedded within this solar-planetary field, making financial markets sensitive indicators of underlying energetic conditions. The Hasbroucks do not predict specific events or prices; they forecast conditions—states of economic pressure, instability, or expansion—analogous to weather forecasting, with events arising only when conditions reach critical thresholds. 
 
Time and space are considered inseparable, and the Space-Time Wave is visualized as a trend-like heartbeat whose expansions, contractions, and inflection points signal systemic transitions such as monetary regime changes. The system is presented as a bridge between electromagnetic field theory and empirical economic pattern recognition, rejecting traditional astrology and claiming validation solely through long-term forecasting consistency rather than short-term speculation.

The 35.8-year Saturn-Neptune cycle exactly matches the crest-to-crest Hasbrouck cycle.

In practical application, the structure identifies predictable cycles—often spanning approximately 35.8 years between peaks—which are further segmented into twelve distinct periods labeled A through G. These phases allow for the identification of critical turning points, such as the 1929 crash or mid-1960s economic shifts, serving as an early warning system for socio-economic disruptions.
 
Despite its predictive nature, the framework rejects fatalism, viewing each wave as a "new adventure" for human advancement rather than an inevitable repetition. By blending elements of physics, psychology, and investment finance, the Space-Time Structure offers a holistic methodology for navigating perpetual change, providing a roadmap for decision-making in finance, policy, and personal strategy.
 
 Muriel and Louis Hasbrouck, 1976.
 
Based on the structure of the 35.8-year Hasbrouck cycle, which spans from one prosperity crest (point C) to the next and is divided into 12 periods of approximately 2.983 years each, the period from early 2026 to around 2037 (around the maximum of solar cycle 26) corresponds to the latter stages of the current cycle commencing at the 2001 crest (around the maximum of solar cycle 23). 
 

Drawing from historical analogies (e.g., the 1929–1965 cycle), this timeframe aligns with the transition from reconstruction to the final upward phases leading to the projected 2037 crest. The phases are characterized below in approximate 3- to 5-year segments, reflecting grouped periods with their economic and psychological attributes:


2026–2029 (G to A phase, continuation of upward trend): This segment follows the activation point (G, around 2025), marking the sustained initiation of a new upward economic trajectory. It is characterized by strengthening trends, emerging optimism, and progressive recovery from prior reconstruction, with psychological factors fostering confidence and innovation toward the next peak.
2029 (A, minor interruption): A brief adjustment period interrupting the upward momentum, akin to historical pauses (e.g., 1957). It involves temporary setbacks, increased caution, or minor economic corrections, driven by psychological shifts toward reevaluation without derailing the overall ascent.
2029–2034 (A to B phase, further progression): Building on the prior interruption, this phase entails continued advancement with incremental adjustments. Economic growth resumes with refined strategies, supported by adaptive psychological responses that emphasize stability and gradual expansion amid evolving trends.
2034 (B, second minor interruption): Similar to the first interruption but later in the cycle (e.g., analogous to 1962), this involves another short-term disruption. It features heightened uncertainty or corrective measures, with psychological elements promoting resilience and preparation for the final push.
2034–2037 (B to C phase, final lead to crest): The concluding segment propels toward the prosperity crest (C, around 2037). It is defined by accelerating upward momentum, culminating in peak prosperity, with psychological drivers of enthusiasm and anticipation facilitating robust economic expansion and trend fulfillment.

For real? In Albania, Bhutan, Canada, and Zimbabwe? Time will tell.
 
Reference:

 
» Magnus Dominus noster, et magna virtus eius et Sapientiae eius non est numerus: 
laudate eum coeli, laudate eum Sol, Luna et Planetae, quocunque sensu ad percipiendum, 
quacunque lingua ad eloquendum Creatorem vestrum utamini: Laudate eum 
Harmoniae coelestes, laudate cum vos Harmoniarum detectarum arbitri. «
 
» Great is our Lord and great His virtue and of His wisdom there is no number:
 praise Him, ye heavens, praise Him, ye sun, moon, and planets, use every 
sense for perceiving, every tongue for declaring your Creator. Praise Him, 
ye celestial harmonies, praise Him, ye judges of the harmonies uncovered. «
 
Harmony of the World, Johannes Kepler, 1619  
 

See also: 

Sunday, December 21, 2025

My Conversion to Heliocentric Financial Astrology | Malcolm G. Bucholtz

The year 2025 marked a pivotal turning point in my professional journey. When I was first introduced to astrology at the 2012 United Astrology Conference (UAC) in New Orleans, the presentations centered exclusively on geocentric astrology. This approach emphasized planets in signs and houses, retrograde motions, and the purported influence of distant bodies such as Pluto (with its 248-year orbital period), Neptune, and Uranus—even in the context of financial astrology. I accepted these ideas without reservation, as they represented the prevailing consensus among attendees and appeared to be the only legitimate framework.

S&P 500 vs. 225-day orbital and 243-day axial spin cycles of Venus: April 2025 lows marked conclusion of spin cycle; midpoint of orbital cycle closely coincided with October 30 highs; December downturn occurred at termination of spin cycle.
Over the ensuing years, I authered books, conducted extensive research, and published newsletters, all rooted in this geocentric perspective. Nevertheless, persistent doubts gradually surfaced: an inner voice highlighted the methods’ inconsistent outcomes. Though I initially disregarded these misgivings, they became impossible to ignore by 2025. Deeper scientific literature portrays the solar system as a vast resonance machine: finely balanced and harmonically interdependent, such that altering the motion of any single planet would destabilize the entire structure. As inhabitants of Earth, humans are inherently attuned to these cosmic rhythms—whether consciously or not—and this attunement manifests emotionally in collective market behavior reflected on price charts.
 
I eventually uncovered papers by astronomers and mathematicians who, operating outside mainstream consensus, attribute phenomena such as climate change to celestial influences rather than human activity. When integrated with findings from medical journals, their work offered profound insight. These researchers maintain that only five planets warrant attention: Mercury, Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn. Distant bodies like Pluto and Uranus can be disregarded owing to their negligible effects.  
 
 
 (black dots on the left side of dates), 2025-2040.

Earth’s 23.4° axial tilt fosters seasonal stability; 
Uranus’s 97.8° tilt "sideways" obliquity.
 
Jupiter and Saturn, by virtue of their immense mass, join the inner planets in exerting gravitational forces on the Sun’s surface during precise angular alignments. Such configurations prompt increased solar radiation in the form of sunspots; although Earth’s magnetic field deflects a portion of this energy, a substantial amount reaches the surface. Medical research connects this phenomenon to the "sodium-potassium pump model", discovered in 1957 by Jens Christian Skou. This model elucidates cellular responses, whereby influxes of solar energy trigger biochemical cascades that heighten susceptibility to emotional shifts correlated with variations in solar emissions.

Most financial instruments frequently align with multiples or fractions of Mercury’s and Venus’s orbital and rotational periods.
 
I observed that major heliocentric alignments involving Mercury, Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn consistently coincide with increased volatility or trend reversals across various assets, including the S&P 500, gold, coffee, orange juice, wheat, corn, oil, and cocoa. Although directional outcomes differ—some bullish, others bearish, and some leading to sideways consolidation—the effects are reliable when correlating heliocentric planetary positions with price charts. This pattern can be attributed to solar emissions influencing human emotion through cellular chemistry. 

In preparing the "Financial Astrology Almanac 2026", I employed the periodogram function—a mathematical tool for time-series analysis—to detect dominant cycles in price data. Nearly all examined financial instruments exhibit cycles that frequently align with multiples or fractions of Mercury’s periods (88-day orbit; 58.65-day rotation) and Venus’s periods (225-day orbit; 243-day rotation).  


On December 20, 2025, an active solar region erupted with vibrant, magnetically
guided coronal loops, marking Solar Cycle 25’s progression toward its 2025 peak.
 
See also:
Malcolm G. Bucholtz (December 20, 2025) - Financial Astrology Almanac 2026: Trading and Investing Using the Planets.