Solar Activity Forecaster: September 18, 2026

According to Scafetta, Stefani, Hung, and Jose,  the ~11-year solar activity cycle—known as the Schwabe band—results from the interference of three tidal clocks: the Jupiter–Saturn spring period (9.93 yr), a central dynamo near 10.87 yr, and Jupiter's orbital period (11.86 yr). Meanwhile, Venus–Earth–Jupiter alignments supply an 11.07-year synchronizer, with the Hale polar reversal—the Sun's complete magnetic pole flip every 22 years—operating as that clock at half frequency.

Solar Activity Forecaster: Active planetary orbital geometry on September 18, 2026.

 

Because tidal forces scale with mass over distance cubed, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter—rather than Saturn—dominate photospheric tidal forcing. However, Jupiter and Saturn still govern the Sun's wobble around the barycenter (the inertial axis and its counter-pole). The Sun's velocity along this orbital path generates a dynamic ram effect: the Earth intersects a compressed, denser plasma sheet when positioned ahead of this directional vector, but passes through a thinner, rarefied sheet when in its trailing wake. When this local orbital vector aligns with the Sun's broader motion toward the galactic apex (Hercules, λ ≈ 280°), the two ram pressures stack constructively. At 1 AU, this accounts for a variation of a few tens of percent in the model, though actual observations are dominated by coronal holes rather than the apex. The solar plasma forms a thin ecliptic sheet—which is denser at sunspot maximum—that is steered along the active tidal axis. Consequently, sunspots emerge at butterfly latitudes and preferentially form at longitudes facing Jupiter.

 

Solar Activity Snapshot on September 18, 2026: Comparing Sunspot distribution on the Earth-facing and far sides of the Sun. From above the Sun's north pole, its rotation is counterclockwise, carrying sunspots from left to right. Because the Sun rotates differentially—faster at the equator (~25 days sidereal, or ~27 days synodic as seen from Earth) and progressively slower at higher latitudes (reaching ~30–35 days near the poles)—the time required for a given region to reappear depends on its heliographic latitude. The standard Carrington frame uses a compromise rotation period of 27.2753 days (synodic), which roughly corresponds to the typical 10–20° latitudes of sunspots. Regions at higher latitudes therefore take longer to rotate back into view, while those near the equator return sooner.  

 Seasonal and diurnal variations of Kelvin-Helmholtz
Instability at terrestrial magnetopause.

  

Magnetic centers align only when three or more planets participate, and exclusively at critical angles such as conjunction, opposition, or quadrature (a 90-degree right-angle alignment). The pattern decouples between these alignments and snaps back into place when they re-form. If an alignment edge or magnetic knot intersects the photosphere, the Sun reacts with localized sunspots, an output burst, or a coronal mass ejection (CME) along the lock axis. The solar wind reflects the state of the ecliptic sheet: it is faint and cool when the sheet is quiet, but becomes brighter and warmer during a ram event or when a lock snaps through the photosphere. These outbursts radiate outward, leaving a wake on the trailing side.

 

The outlook for US stock indices is decidedly cautious, shaped by fading sentiment buffers and macroeconomic pressure. Near-term vulnerability builds into early October 2026, marking a naturally occurring gap between the second and third AFPs as micro-sentiment trends downward despite the Micro Driver line pointing upward into early October. A more severe market downturn is projected for early December 2026, driven by the conclusion of the final AFP cluster and the Macro Driver's shift into a negative stance. Resurfacing inflation fears, oil supply shocks, hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, and rising bond yields reinforce this negative trajectory. 

Physics-Based Sentiment Forecasts for US Stocks, September 11, 2026.

 

See also:

TPR (2026) - S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle: A Clock, Not a Crystal Ball.

TPR (2026) - S&P 500 vs. Ap Index: +3-Day Lag and Limits of Multi-Week Forecasting.

Jeffrey A. Hansen (2026) - Physics-Based Forecasts of Investment Sentiment: 

Evidence from Past Boom-and-Bust Periods and the Anticipated Dynamics of 2026.

Aleksander Valkov (2025) - Helioeconomics: Solar Cycles & World Economic Rhythms. 

Leonty Miroshnichenko (2023) - Kondratiev Waves Aligned with Solar Cycles.  

Physics-Based Forecasts of Investment Sentiment | Jeffrey A. Hansen

Hansen's February 2026 paper Physics-Based Forecasts of Investment Sentiment proposes that shifts in investor optimism and pessimism correlate with heliocentric planetary orbital geometry, sunspot activity, and Schumann resonance stability, rather than solely with economic news. The clock of investor sentiment is a roughly 90° Sun–vertex angle (86°–94°) between the Mercury–Saturn center, weighted by tidal force (T ∝ m/r³), and the Jupiter–Neptune center, with weights fitted in December 2000 to Hansen's Market Resilience Index (MRI). Clusters of these configurations define Anxiety-Free Periods (AFPs)—multi-month stretches of investor optimism—that typically fade when the final 90° column expires (plotted orange in charts below).

 

Geometry of the Inner Orbital Center (Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn) and the Outer Orbital Center (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune; Jupiter and Saturn sit in both centers): two mass-weighted planetary-group centers with the Sun at the vertex. When the angle is near 90° (Hansen uses 86°–94°), an AFP column is active, plotted as orange bars/columns in the US Stock Market Price Level chart below.

Physics Times the Turn; Economics Sizes the Move

Across thirteen AFPs from 1933–2024, the average cumulative gain is about 28%, followed by a 13% post-peak decline—near the 98th and 95th percentiles of duration-matched history. Physics is proposed to time the turn; economics to size it. 

 

Thirteen AFPs, named by the year of the price peak (1933-2024, exact dates in the chart above): geometry window = first 90° event through last 90° event; prior/post lows and returns are his market annotations (visually dated orange on the DJIA chart below). Average prior low is about 2½ months before the first event. The fourteenth cluster is the 2026 AFP (not in the 1933–2024 sample). Appendix U dates its 90° Fridays as Apr 24–May 22, 2026; Aug 07–Sep 18, 2026; and Nov 20–Dec 04, 2026. There is no completed peak/post-low for that episode yet.

US Stock Market Price Level (Log) vs. AFPs, 1920–2024.

A century of prices with orange AFP columns; column height represents intensity.

Each column is one 90° configuration event. A cluster of those bars is one Anxiety-Free Period.

2026 has three columns (late April–May, August–September, November–December).

 

Pre-peak ("boom") and post-peak ("bust") cumulative returns for the thirteen Anxiety-Free Periods since 1933, with empirical percentile ranks based on duration-matched periods in the full weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average history. The ranks measure the share of same-duration historical periods with less extreme returns. High percentiles show that gains consistently fall in the extreme tail, while declines do so in most cases. 

From Orbital Angles to Schumann Standing Waves to Human Physiological Entrainment

Market impact is attributed not to the angle itself, but to a four-step causal chain ending in Schumann-type modes, the Earth's ionospheric waveguide ringing at approximately 8, 14, and 21 Hz. A 90° configuration is hypothesized to laminarize solar emissions, stabilize ionospheric height, and lock global standing-wave frequencies near 14–21 Hz; this coherence is then linked to analytical optimism, with overlap in the 13–30 Hz EEG band.

Hypothesized causal mechanism for Anxiety-Free Periods. The diagram proposes a causal chain from solar-system geometry through solar emissions, ionospheric stability, global electromagnetic standing waves, and human physiological entrainment. It is repeated at the start of each section, highlighting the relevant step; here, Element 1 is highlighted.

Established Space-Weather Physics and Speculative Solar-Geometry Links

Stabilized solar output and ionospheric height extend accepted space-weather physics; the solar-geometry and cognition links remain speculative. Intensity scales with outer-group clustering, measured by Sun-to-outer-center distance, which is offered as the reason 1937 and 1987 were violent while 2006 was mild. Intensity is already represented by the column heights in the US Stock Market Price Level chart above.

 

Ap Index, F10.7, and Sunspots as Fellow Travelers

The same geometry used to time AFPs is associated with tighter co-movement among Ap Index, F10.7, sunspots, and Oulu neutron-monitor counts when the outer planets cluster. Geomagnetic and radio-flux series are treated as companions of standing-wave stability rather than as separate daily trading signals.

 Correlations of Solar Energy Metrics by High Intensity and Low Intensity Weeks.

Ap, F10.7, sunspots, and Oulu neutrons co-move more tightly when the outer group is clustered.

The Frozen Eight-Driver Orbital Model

An eight-driver orbital model—six frozen orbital-geometry factors covering planet-group angles, distances, and clusters, plus the predicted AFP and M-Spike series—was calibrated through late 2000 and then frozen. Using NASA coordinates alone, it forecasts the 14-week RSI from December 2000 through April 2024. Here, 14-week RSI means Wilder's Relative Strength Index calculated on weekly bars with a 14-week lookback: Hansen's proxy for multi-month price momentum and investor sentiment, rather than the more common 14-day RSI. The M-Spike is a short-term orbital-geometry factor—not an RSI or an AFP—computed from planet-group positions and read on DJIA/S&P prices as a multi-week M pattern: lift, mid-dip, rebound, and fade. About 88% of predicted turns match actual turns within ±1 week, versus a chance baseline near 0.25% (p < 0.001).

Predicted and Actual 14-week RSI for the US Stock Market, December 1, 2000–April 1, 2024.

Frozen-model path versus realized RSI and log price; the 88% out-of-sample test begins here.

 

When Price Rises but Sentiment Does Not

When actual RSI runs below the geometry path, as in 2007–08, Hansen interprets the divergence as economically driven pessimism despite rising prices. Pre- and post-event weekly returns around 26 individual 90° events differ less than 0.01% (p < 0.0001).

 

 Predicted and Actual 14-week RSI, Periods A and B. Arrow A marks the 2007–08

actual-RSI divergence below geometry; B marks an AFP in which both rise together.

 

The Limited Schumann-Resonance Test

Usable standing-wave data exist only from June 2015 through December 2021. However, it is not a published Schumann-resonance product. Hansen built the series himself from British Geological Survey magnetometer records at Eskdalemuir, Scotland. Within that window, the predicted 2017 AFP series is associated with frequency stability in modes 2–3 (p < 0.001), although R² is only about 0.05—the most direct test of standing-wave market impact, but also the thinnest.

 

US stock-market price and indicators for the 2017 Anxiety-Free Period and M-Spike episodes, June 05, 2015–December 31, 2021. The chart overlays market price, episode indicators, and ellipses A–D marking notable relationships between price patterns and episodic signals. It also shows modes 2 and 3 electromagnetic standing-wave stability, measured on weekends from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. local time and lagged approximately two weeks. 

Sunspots as the Longer Proxy

Solar activity is more stable during 21 of 26 90° events and more often declines by day +21 after an event ends. Shorter geometry-defined M-Spikes (53 cases, 1940–2023) show weaker weekly-return significance (p ≈ 0.19).

 

Mega Cycle and Phase 1 Valuations

The same inner–outer angle maps onto a four-phase Mega Sentiment Cycle. Phase 1, from 0° to the AFP at 90°, has accounted for about 32% of weeks since 1942 but 53% of returns, with higher S&P 500 P/E ratios but no corresponding growth differential.

 

Mega Sentiment Cycle (2004–2027), showing its four phases, the timing of Anxiety-Free Periods, and the changing Inner Center–Sun–Outer Center angle. Stock Index Price refers to the DJIA, S&P 500, or related ETFs. 

How Panic Is Supposed to Spread

A Geoffrey Moore-style adoption model divides the market into Pioneers (~15%), Early Majority (~35%), Late Majority (~35%), and Laggards (~15%). Micro geometry is said to move the Pioneers, while the Mega cycle moves the slower half. During Phase 1, roughly half the market remains optimistic, so valuation alone is judged unlikely to force a crash larger than 30%.

 

The 2026 Live Overlap

Phase 1 of Hansen's Mega Sentiment Cycle—the long inner–outer angle from 0° up to the next AFP at 90°—runs from autumn 2022 until the first 90° column of 2026, projected for late April–May, with peak geometry-driven euphoria in late May, a second lift by early August, and a third close in early December. A moderate M-Spike overlaps the first column, making April–June the unstable hinge.

 

The chart (December 06, 2024 to January 01, 2027) shows the US stock-market price level (log) through July 18, 2025—the analysis date—along with the drivers of the three 90° configuration events comprising the 2026 Anxiety-Free Period and the M-Spike as of June 2025. Forward map showing the three 2026 AFP columns, overlapping M-Spike, May peak, and June hinge. US Stocks refers to the DJIA, S&P 500, or related ETFs. 

2026 AFP Map and the Boom-Then-Fade Hypothesis 

Hansen's sketch is: enter several weeks before an AFP, hold through the cluster high, exit on the Micro Market Resilience Index; he prefers equal-weight S&P 500 or the DJIA as cleaner sentiment gauges. That is a multi-month calendar, not a daily trigger and not proof that high valuations cannot break.

 

2026 is one such labeled window: three separate 90° columns, not a continuous anxiety-free bid into year-end. The first and strongest was late April–May (peak late May). An overlapping M-Spike made April–June the hinge—historically a dip zone, not a melt-up. A weaker second lift was dated August–September. The third column, late November–early December, ends the cluster; Hansen's average script is a boom during the bars and about −13% after the peak. 2006 barely rose, so an AFP is not a guarantee of higher prices. November–December is the close of the episode, not "anxiety-free until Christmas."

 

Use that map to watch whether price, Ap, sunspots, and standing-wave stability follow the boom-then-fade pattern. For next-week risk keep short-horizon Ap/Kp and real-time L1 solar wind—those still have skill. The Schumann link rests on one AFP and $R^2 \approx 0.05$; 2026 is the live joint test of cavity-mode coherence, solar-metric co-movement, and that price script. Do not size as if the mechanism were already proven. Hansen's paper is research, not investment advice.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hansen (February 2, 2026) - Physics-Based Forecasts of Investment Sentiment: 

Evidence from Past Boom-and-Bust Periods and the Anticipated Dynamics of 2026. 

Jeffrey A. Hansen is founder of CPM Investing LLC and an asset-allocation researcher who began in geophysics and natural-resource exploration, later evaluating quantitative investment managers at Russell Investments, advising investment firms on technology adoption and product development, managing global multi-asset funds at Nikko AM America, and since 2015 specializing in asset-allocation research and ETF model portfolios for individual investors. 

Hansen's latest August 7, 2026 forecast.

S&P 500 vs. Hansen's "Micro Driver" (data input and formula undisclosed), digitized from the weekly chart in his August 7 forecast above and plotted against the daily S&P 500 for clarity. The "Micro Driver" path shows rising prices into Sep 4 (Fri), a trough around Oct 2 (Fri), followed by a higher peak around Oct 16 (Fri), a trough on Nov 27 (Fri), and a weaker bounce into Dec 25 (Fri).

Hansen Anxiety-Free Periods 1933-2051

The model uses two planetary centers of gravity: the Inner Orbital Center, a weighted mix of Mercury, Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn, and the Outer Orbital Center, a weighted mix of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, with a line from the Sun to each center. Hansen's AFP clock is simply how close the opening angle is to a right angle. He counts a "column" when it falls between 86° and 94°. Because the inner planets move quickly, the angle wobbles in and out of the band, so an AFP is usually a handful of orange bars or columns spread over a few months, not one solid year. To calculate Hansen's Anxiety-Free Periods through 2051, his published weights and NASA/JPL planetary positions were used.

Hansen AFPs, 1933–2051: Orange columns mark weeks of Anxiety-Free Periods, when the Sun–vertex angle between the inner (Mercury–Saturn) and outer (Jupiter–Neptune) planet-group centers (black curve in the lower panel) falls within the 86°–94° band; column height quantifies the number of weeks within the band. The upper panel overlays AFPs with a black line showing detrended DJIA weekly closing values. Looks pretty random. Hardly something worth betting the farm on.

Hansen Anxiety-Free Periods (2026–2051).

 

There are 16 clusters from 1935 to 2051. After the current 2026 AFP, the next full cluster is November 2032–July 2033. Then comes a long empty stretch: the angle falls toward 0° (the two centers lined up) and does not re-enter the band until a weak July 2050 graze and a full 90° column in January 2051. Gaps with no AFPs are 2027–31 and 2034–49. 

 

2026 Real-World Test: Watch Timing Window. Respect Uncertainty. Never Bet the Farm.

The orange AFP columns are a real, rebuildable orbital clock. However, they are not a price clock. The Dow's detrended path already has its own slow waves—wars, inflation, bubbles, QE. An AFP arrives roughly every 7–13 years, so some columns will naturally land near highs, selloffs, or dead middles. That happens with or without the 90° angle doing anything. 

Hansen's stronger claim is window timing. But his sample is only thirteen episodes: +28% on average, followed by −13%, with durations matched to extreme percentiles. Misses matter: 2006 barely moved; 1937 and 1987 were ugly. The proposed chain—stable Sun → ionosphere → Schumann → mood—rests on a tiny Schumann window and an R² ≈ 0.05. The "Micro Driver" projection line in the August 7 forecast looks impressively strong, its inputs and formula are understandably undisclosed, and it could be a weekly spectrum-cycle composite projection, unrelated to the AFP columns. The M-Spike formula is also unpublished, though it can be deduced as an exactly repeating, non-astronomical 55-week/385-day mystery cycle, with p ≈ 0.19.

 

So 2026 is a fascinating real-world test of Physics-Based Forecasts of Investment Sentiment—but still not proof that the theory works or doesn’t. Orbital geometry can be projected indefinitely into the future. And trader and investor sentiment? Maybe not. If 2026 fails to deliver the usual boom-then-fade, that failure is evidence against the theory. If it rhymes, fine—but it is still one more cluster, not a law. Watch the timing windows. Respect the uncertainty. Never bet the farm on orbital geometry—nor anything else.

 

See also:

TPR (2026) - S&P 500 vs. Ap Index: +3-Day Lag and Limits of Multi-Week Forecasting.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2001) - Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets.

Mark Douglas (2000) - The Probabilistic Mindset of Successful Traders.

Solar Cycles and Inflation-Adjusted Gold Price Forecasting | Vladimir Belkin

Vladimir Belkin's latest study quantifies the relationship between solar activity and the inflation-adjusted price of Gold (1968–2025) within a Jevons–Chizhevsky analytical framework. By synchronizing real Gold prices with the ordinal structure of solar cycles—measured via sunspot (Wolf) numbers—it identifies a strong and statistically significant fit (R² = 0.9081, p = 0.0115), implying that approximately 90.8% of the variance in real Gold prices is explained by his solar-cycle model. 

 

Grouping of data by ordinal numbers of years in solar activity cycles (1968–2025).

 

Rather than implying direct causation, the results point to a cyclical transmission mechanism in which solar rhythms embed and modulate underlying economic periodicities, notably Kitchin- and Juglar-type cycles, thereby acting as a structural driver of long-term commodity price behavior.

 

Ordinal years of the mean solar cycle and inflation-adjusted Gold prices

(1968–2025); superposed epoch analysis of 58 years of observations.

The model integrates CPI-adjusted Gold price data with a superposed epoch framework, aligning multiple solar cycles into a normalized temporal structure and fitting a 6th-degree polynomial to capture the nonlinear progression of price behavior across cycle phases (chart above). This produces a phase-sensitive waveform that preserves both timing and amplitude characteristics of historical Gold price movements relative to the solar cycle. The robustness of the fit suggests a stable coupling between solar variability and macro-financial conditions—likely mediated through liquidity, inflation expectations, and broader cyclical economic regimes.

The study advances beyond descriptive correlation to a deterministic forecasting model. Each calendar year is mapped to its corresponding position within Solar Cycle 25, and forward price projections are derived using empirically observed year-to-year transition ratios embedded in the cycle structure.

Within this framework, 2026 (cycle year 7) implies a contraction in real Gold prices to approximately $2,536.35/oz (0.70 × $3,623.36), followed by 2027 (year 8) with a modest recovery to $2,587.08/oz (1.02 × prior year). 

This projected path is consistent with the transition from peak solar activity into the declining phase of the cycle, which historically coincides with reduced upside momentum, elevated volatility, or corrective dynamics in real Gold prices.

For the post-2025 horizon, the model therefore implies a nonlinear, wave-structured trajectory rather than a sustained directional trend: late-cycle topping behavior into the solar maximum, followed by cyclical deceleration into the late 2020s, and eventual reacceleration as the next solar minimum-to-maximum sequence unfolds. 

 

Forecasted development of the current Solar Cycle 25 (NASA).

 

These projections remain conditional on three factors: the accuracy of solar cycle forecasts, the stability of the regression relationship, and the interaction with concurrent macroeconomic cycles. Within those constraints, the framework offers a high-coherence, quantitatively grounded method for translating solar-cycle dynamics directly into forward estimates of inflation-adjusted Gold prices.

Reference:

Vladimir Belkin (July 1, 2026) - Solar Activity and the Inflation-Adjusted Price of Gold (1968–2025): R² = 0.91. 

 

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The extension of Belkin’s inflation-adjusted Gold price forecast through 2032 applies the same chaining methodology, using average ratios from column 5 in his table above and starting from $3,623.36 in 2025. Solar Cycle 25 began in 2019–2020 (2020 = Year 1) and is expected to end around 2030–2031, with Cycle 26 beginning. 

  

Inflation-adjusted Gold price forecast through 2032.

 

The resulting forecasts are 2025 at $3,623.36, 2026 at $2,536.35, 2027 at $2,587.08, 2028 at $2,664.69, 2029 at $3,011.10, 2030 at $3,462.77, 2031 at $2,735.59, and 2032 at $3,474.20. 

 

 

Inflation-adjusted Gold price will likely peak around 2033-2034.

  

The method is unchanged, with 2026–2027 matching Belkin's paper exactly. 2031 is the Cycle 25 minimum, and 2032 begins Cycle 26 using the average Year 1–to–Year 12 ratio. All figures are real (inflation-adjusted) and reflect the typical decline into solar minimum followed by a rebound. This is a statistical historical correlation; Gold prices are also driven by other factors, and Belkin’s solar cycle timing carries an uncertainty of about ±1 year.

 

See also:

Sergey Tarassov (2026) - Gold's 7.8-Year Cycle: Historical Analysis Since 1782. 

 NOAA (ongoing) - Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression.

Three Major War Cycles Converging 2027–2032 | Richard Smith

Richard Smith, CEO, Chairman of the Board, and Executive Director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, presented research on long-term cycles in war and human conflict. His analysis reveals deep interconnections between warfare, economic activity, food production, and solar phenomena, potentially mediated by solar radiation and Earth’s geomagnetic influences on biological and social systems.

» All three cycle families show rising phase conditions in the current window. A convergence appears around 2027-2032. «

16-year Dewey cycle (brown) | 26-year Mogey cycle (red) | 63-year long-wave (blue)

 

Building on the Foundation's archives and the work of Edward R. Dewey (1895–1978) and Raymond H. Wheeler (1892–1961), Smith's analysis revives and extends early 20th-century cycles research using modern tools, including AI-assisted digitization and the Foundation's Cycle Analyzer. Wheeler's landmark dataset spans roughly 2,600 years (from 600 BC onward), meticulously documenting and ranking battles by severity. Dewey, motivated by his experiences in World War I and II, identified recurring rhythms across diverse phenomena to better understand and potentially mitigate societal calamities.

Dewey observed a prominent 54-year cycle manifesting across multiple domains—including international battles, wheat prices, sunspots, tree rings, and financial instruments—with major peaks in 1917, 1971, and a projected crest in 2025. He also highlighted a 17.7-year cycle in warfare data derived from Wheeler's records through 1957. Projections of this cycle similarly converge on 2025. Unlike much of today's single-series technical analysis, Dewey's approach emphasized cycles that appeared independently across unrelated phenomena. The consistent recurrence of the same wavelengths across disparate datasets served as strong evidence of meaningful underlying rhythms.

 

» The entire vast area of human madness. «

Alexander L. Chizhevsky, 1922.

Smith has validated and extended this historical research with contemporary conflict datasets, including the Correlates of War (COW) Project, battle-related deaths statistics, and the UCDP Conflict Data Project. He also incorporated long-term economic and solar series such as wheat prices (from 1259), commodities, gold, silver, and sunspot records. Statistical analysis confirms several robust cycle families appearing consistently across war, economic, agricultural, and solar data:

 

■ 16–20 year cycle (≈18 years, the Dewey cycle)
■ 28–30 year cycle (Mogey cycle)
■ 39–40 year cycle
■ 56–60 year cycle
■ 85–100 year cycle 

These cycles frequently achieve high statistical significance (often 90%+ on Bartels tests) across independent datasets. Smith's chart above titled "Three Cycles Rising — Where Are We Now?" illustrates the combined phasing of the three most prominent cycles from 1975 to 2035:

■ 16-year Dewey cycle (brown)
■ 26-year Mogey cycle (red)
■ 63-year long-wave (blue)

 

Smith's analysis indicates that the three major war cycles will converge in a synchronized uptrend between 2027 and 2032, suggesting elevated risks of conflict, instability, and related phenomena into the early 2030s, with broader peaks potentially extending toward 2040.

 

Reference:
Richard Smith (March 24, 2026) - Cycles of War. (video)

 

  

» The tallest peak, and hence the strongest average cycle, is at the 4th fraction of 214 years (top scale), or 53.5 years (bottom scale). [...] Could this cycle be the well-established 54-year cycle? «

Edward Dewey, 1967.

"Cycles in War and Peace" by Richard Mogey (Cycles, Vol. 41, No. 1, 1990).

 

CIA. 9 October 1953. CONFIDENTIAL. 

MEMORANDUM FOR THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE.
SUBJECT: Mr. Edward R. Dewey - Cycles Analysis.

 
See also:

Edward R. Dewey and Og Mandino (1971) - The Patterns of War. 

Edward R. Dewey (1967) - Systematic Reconnaissance of Cycles in War. 

Raymond H. Wheeler (1943) - The 500-Year Cycle.

Raymond H. Wheeler (1943) - 100-Year Cycle: Climate, Regime Change, and War. 

Alexander L. Chizhevsky (1922) - Mass Excitability during Solar Cycle 25 (2019–2030).

  

Published during World War II in 1943, this info chart "Business Booms and Depressions Since 1775" reflects an era when

US corporations and financial institutions were striving to forecast, adapt to, and navigate the looming postwar economy.