SPX vs Sunspots | 36 - 48 Hour Forecast

Current Solar Data from NOAA (HERE + HERE)

The number  of sunspots in existence at any one time is continually subject to change as some disappear and new ones emerge. As the sun
rotates on its own axis, these sunspots are visible at 27-day intervals, the approximate period required for the sun to make one complete
rotation. The 27-day sunspot cycle causes variations in the ionization density of the layers on a day-to-day basis.

SPX vs 10.7 cm Flux | April - May 2016

The NOAA-forecasts on 10.7 cm flux are updated daily.

Yesterday Sunspots Increased = Today Market Should Decline

However, the daily sunspot number reached a 2 year high (154) while the SoLunar Map signals an upturn in the stock market (see also HERE)

Highest Daily Sunspot Number since April 2014

Source: NOAA

SPX vs Sunspots

Sunspots shifted +49 days

The Ap index measures geomagnetic activity and the 10.7 cm Flux is considered a sunspot-proxy.
Source: NOAA

SPX vs Sunspots

 

Sunspots shifted +49 days

Sunspot Cycle 24: "None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle"

Conventional wisdom holds that solar activity swings back and forth like a simple pendulum.  At one end of the cycle, there is a quiet time with few sunspots and flares. At the other end, Solar Maximum brings high sunspot numbers and solar storms. It’s a regular rhythm that repeats every 11 years. 

Reality, however, is more complicated. Astronomers have been counting sunspots for centuries, and they have seen that the solar cycle is not perfectly regular. For one thing, the back-and-forth swing in sunspot counts can take anywhere from 10 to 13 years to complete; also, the amplitude of the cycle varies. Some solar maxima are very weak, others very strong (HERE). 

But "none of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle [as the sunspot cycle 24]", said Dr. Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University and other prominent solar scientists at the 2013 Fall Meeting of American Geophysical Union (AGU), held on December 11, 2013 in San Francisco. This solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s (see also HERE & HERE).

John Hampson recently expected the "solar cycle 24′s flat top to end by mid-2014", and one of two possibities playing out: "One, equities peak out within the next 6 months, commodities don’t come again, and we thereafter enter the typical post-solar-peak recession (deflationary). Or, two, equities are peaking now and commodities are breaking upwards out of their large consoliation triangles since 2011 to produce a typical late-cyclical final rally and help tip the weak economy into that recession." (see also HERE).

Credits: John Hampson

Credits: Jan Alvestad

 

Credits: Jan Alvestad

Solar Tides & Financial Markets | Al Larson

Astrophysics & Chaos [Mar 30, 1999]

"The Solar Energy System does affect markets. The Sun gives off radiation which varies by about 2 percent. These variations are caused by tidal forces that the revolving planets exert on the gases in the Sun.

These tides cause vortexes in the Sun’s surface leading to solar flares, coronal holes, and magnetic storms. The energy changes from these are carried to Earth on an ionized stream of particles called the Solar Wind.

When the Solar Wind reaches Earth it is deflected around the Earth by the Earth’s magnetic field. 

This creates a magnetosphere around the Earth. At the poles ionized particles can penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere. Changes in the solar radiation cause changes in the voltage in the ionosphere.

This in turn causes changes in the electrical currents flowing through people standing on the Earth. These emotional swings account for about 40 percent of price motion."

 

Al Larson a.k.a. Hanns Hannula [extracted from his "Cash in on Chaos Newsletter" @ www.moneytide.com - more HERE & HERE]

 

Hans Hannula (1991): A Lunar Chaos Theory; p. 14

SPX vs Solar Activity

Last 30 Days Daily Solar Data

Solar flares and CMEs are intense flashes of extreme radiation emanating from the Sun.  

The ejected material is a plasma consisting primarily of electrons and protons, but may contain small quantities of heavier elements such as helium, oxygen, and even iron. 

Most solar flares and coronal mass ejections originate in magnetically active regions around visible sunspot groupings. 

Near solar maxima the Sun produces about three CMEs every day, whereas near solar minima there is about one CME every five days (see also HERE).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Solar flares are classified according to the peak flux as Class A, -B, -C, -M or -X Flares (ranged from small to large). Daily Solar Data, a 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity, as well as a 45 Day F10.7cm Flux Forecast are provided free of charge by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

For the purpose of market timing only Class M and -X flares are relevant. However, not every flare ejected by the Sun is directed towards the Earth. But if it is, the solar storm takes 2 days +/- to trigger a geomagnetic storm. In 2003, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta did a study on the effects of solar storms on stock market traders: "Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all US stock market indices."   

www.helios.izmiran.rssi.ru

Therefore, some 2 days +/- after an earth-directed Class M or Class X flare a drop in the stock markets should be expected.

So what about the latest Class M flares on September 8th and 9th? They will miss to hit the Earth (see also HERE). Instead various 10.7cm Flux Forecasts suggest the stock markets will keep wedging up into around the New Moon (Sep 15) or even the Equinox (Sep 22). Please note: Solar-, lunar- and other astro-indicators frequently fail around Equinoxes (inversion periods are: March 21 - April 7, , June 7 - July 7, September 9 - October 11, December 8 - January 6).

Sun Burst: Collapsing solar filament on August 31

Credits: RT 04 September, 2012, 11:34

A gigantic solar filament collapse has been caught on a NASA observatory camera. The stunning video covers nearly 3 hours compressed into half a minute. The event resulted in a coronal mass ejection and a small-scale geomagnetic storm on Earth.

The footage shot in extreme ultraviolet light shows the last hours of an arc of relatively cold plasma, which was kept stable by magnetic forces, but collapsed on August 31. The filament explodes, releasing a burst of radiation and coronal mass into space.

www.swpc.noaa.gov

The ejection delivered a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetosphere, triggering a moderate level geomagnetic storm, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center reported. By Tuesday, however, radiation levels went below the minor event threshold.

A solar filament, also called a solar prominence if it is observed against space, consists of hot ionized hydrogen and helium looping hundreds of thousands of kilometers from the sun’s surface into the relatively hotter corona. It can persist for months before ceasing to exist. Astrophysicists so far have no comprehensive theory as to how such structures are formed.

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Sep 03 22:00 UTC

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (04 - 06 September) with a chance for isolated M- class flares.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (04 September) with a chance for minor storm levels as CME effects wind down. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during days 2 - 3 (05 - 06 September) with a chance for active levels due to arrival of Earth-directed CMEs observed on 02 September along with a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The CH HSS is expected to commence on day 3. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit is expected to end on day 1.

See also HERE & HERE & HERE

Prediction of Sunspot Cycle 24-Peak & Long Term Trading Strategy

www.sidc.oma.be

SIDC: The daily (yellow), monthly (blue) and monthly smoothed (red) sunspot numbers since 1994, together with predictions for 12 months ahead: SM (red dots) : classical prediction method, based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; CM (red dashes) : combined method (due to K. Denkmayr), a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves. Peak: January 2013

www.solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov

NASA: The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 59 in early 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years. Peak: January-February 2013

www.ips.gov.au

IPS: Peak: December 2012

Last updated 26 Mar 2012 13:03 UT

                         FORECAST SOLAR CYCLE 24
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cycle  Sol. Start  Sol. Max  Max SSN     Length     Rise to Max     Max to End
       Year Mth    Year Mth             Yr   Mth    Years   Mths    Years  Mths
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24     2009 Jan    2012 Dec   90.2     11.0 132     3.9    47       7.1    86

IPS will adjust this forecast cycle as the new cycle unfolds. 
The difficulty is ensuring that adjustments are not made for short 
term variation, only for longer term cycle variation. 

www.swpc.noaa.gov

NOAA: Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May 2013.

Here is the data supporting the shorter term strategy of buying at solar minimums and selling at the next cycle maximum for an average 70% gain:

Why might stocks consistently outperform in these periods from solar minimum to maximum, and underperform from solar peak down to the next solar minimum, particularly as higher solar activity can cause higher geomagnetism on Earth which affects humans biologically negatively and adversely affects stock market returns?

Well, there is a slight lag in geomagnetic peaks after solar cycle peaks, as shown below, and this fits well with why we have seen an economic recession follow each solar cycle maximum in the last century - it corresponds to the peak in geomagnetism. Historically, this post-solar-peak period has been one of human apathy and peace. Conversely, the period into the solar peak has been one of human excitability, pro-action and economic inflation, which fits well with stock market gains.

Source: Susan Macmillan, British Geological Survey

Solar Cycle 24 began around December 2008 with a solar minimum and it is predicted to peak in July 2013. An average gain of 70% for the Dow over this period would translate as 14500 by mid 2013 (which would mean a new nominal all time high).A recession has closely followed solar peaks for each solar cycle in the last 100 years. The average recession duration is 1 year. The average length of recession-induced stocks bear markets is 1 year 4 months. As the stock market is forward looking, and a leading indicator, we could therefore find the the stock market peaks around the beginning of 2013 and then declines into the solar peak in mid 2013, and then declines through a recession into 2014.

Dow-Commodities ratios and consumer price inflation should peak at extremes at the solar peak (as has occurred each time in the last century), suggesting commodities should push on all the way into mid-2013 whilst stocks lag in the last few months.  

In summary, there is a correlation between stock market performance and solar cycles. A profitable strategy over the last century would have been to buy at the solar minimum and sell at the next solar maximum, and repeat for an average 70% gain in each instance.

An even more profitable strategy would have been to buy and hold over 2-3 decades in between 3 specific half solar cycles. This strategy would have produced 10-fold gains each time, and pattern continuation suggests such a repetition from the solar minimum at the end of 2008 looking out to the 2030s, in line with a further secular stocks bull.

Looking shorter term to the solar peak around mid-2013, stocks should track yet higher, and this implies commodities much higher, as an extreme relative pricing of commodities over stocks should be reached around that solar peak, before a secular inversion.

John Hampson, April 2011 @ www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27341.html