2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity | Vladimir Belkin

This study of solar-terrestrial relationships compares the years of the solar cycle based on Wolf sunspot numbers and the arithmetic averages of crude oil prices from 1970 to 2023 (solar cycles 20-25), all presented in a single chart. Mean annual Wolf numbers were sourced from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC), while Brent crude oil price data (adjusted to 2021 dollars) was obtained from BP and the Federal Reserve Economic Data website for 2022-2023.

Order of years in solar cycles and crude oil prices for the period 1970-2023.

Very strong correlation (coefficient 0.9908)

 

Using this data, the above diagram was created to illustrate the very strong correlation (coefficient 0.9908) between crude oil prices and the ordinal years of the solar cycles for the period 1970-2023.

 

 Polynomial function of oil price and year number in solar cycle for 1861–2019.

Very strong correlation (coefficient 0.9897)

Since 2024 marks the fifth year of the current Solar Cycle #25, it corresponds to an average forecast Brent oil price of $74.18 per barrel. In 2025, the sixth year of the cycle, the projected price is $56.04. In 2026, the seventh year of the cycle, the forecast is $43.84, while the anticipated price for 2027 is $42.84.

 

Reference: 

Vladimir Belkin (October 1, 2024) - Oil Price Decline in 2025-2027. 

 

See also:
Vladimir Belkin (2020) - Oil Prices and Solar Activity: Evidence of Strong Ties (1861–2019). 

Lu Qiyuan (2024) - Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0.

Mikhail Gorbanev (2017) - Solar Activity and Economic Recessions. 

Sunspot Number 2018 into 2032 (NASA, updated December 5, 2024).

 

 SIDC 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number.

S&P 500 Index vs Sunspots | Transition between Solar Cycles #24 and #25

Last weekend the small ephermal sunspot materialized in the Sun’s northern hemisphere, then, hours later, vanished again. The magnetic field of the spot was reversed, marking it a member of the next solar cycle (see data e.g. HERE). Sunspot AR2727 appeared just north of the Sun’s equator. This one still belongs to the decaying Solar Cycle #24 that peaked back in 2012-2014. But its magnetic polarity is already that of the other, still unnumbered sunspot high above it. They are opposite. 

According to Hale’s Law, this means the two sunspots belong to different solar cycles. The high latitude sunspot appears to be a harbinger of Solar Cycle #25. Solar cycles always mix together at their boundaries. Indeed, ephemeral sunspots possibly belonging to Solar Cycle #25 have already been reported on December 20, 2016, and April 8, 2018. Now November 17, 2018, can be added to the list. The slow transition between Solar Cycle #24 and Solar Cycle #25 appears to be underway.

Spotless Sun | Solar Cycle # 24 weakest in more than a Century

Not a single sunspot since June 3rd. However, solar activity of course continues modulating geomagnetism,
 and in some two or three days sunspots should reappear from region #12,546, currently still on the sun's farside.
The current Solar Cycle # 24 is the weakest solar cycle in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since
Solar Cycle # 14 peaked in February 1906.

The Sun rotates counterclockwise, but not as a rigid sphere:
The equator rotates faster than the poles (differential rotation).

405 Year Sunspot Record Revised and Newly Calibrated

Credits: SILSO Data - Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels

Dating back to Galileo and the invention of the telescope, the 405-year solar sunspot record is the longest continuously monitored daily measurement in all of science. Studies into sunspots, solar and planetary cycles corresponding with trade cycles, crop prices and shifts in the markets have accelerated since the 19th century. Now, on July 1st, 2015 the official sunspot record underwent a complete overhaul for the first time since it was created by Swiss astronomer Rudolf Wolf in 1849. The newly calibrated record is likely to have implications in many diverse scientific disciplines including financial astrology.

Yet, this important change to one of science’s most fundamental measurements went literally unnoticed (HERE & HERE) Two sunspot record time series were recalibrated: The first is the traditional International Sunspot Number (ISN) record most people are familiar with. The second is the more physically meaningful group number. Groups have always been counted as part of the ISN. The newly released group number update redefines and corrects defects in the original 1998 version. The newly rebuilt group number time series shows that solar activity is considerably more ‘even’ over its 405-year history than previously thought. Formerly, it looked as though sunspot activity in the past was much weaker than at present, especially prior to 1890. Counting inconsistencies artificially created that non-existent effect. The rebuilt record contains four distinctive dips in solar activity that occur roughly every 100 years.

Largest Geomagnetic Disturbances during Solar Cycle 24

HERE & HERE & HERE

Yesterday 28 solar storm warnings were reported from satellites watching the sun - a very rare event in just one day (HERE). The most powerful solar storm of the current solar cycle is currently reverberating around the globe. Initially triggered by the impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME) hitting our planet’s magnetosphere, a relatively mild geomagnetic storm erupted at around 04:30 UT, but it has since ramped-up to an impressive G4-class geomagnetic storm, priming high latitudes for some bright auroral displays. Further significant flare activity from Region 2297 is to be expected until it rotates off the visible disk on March 19th. This already caused the largest geomagnetic disturbances during the current solar cycle. 

Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market, a 2003 study of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, notes the following: Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all US stock market indices.  

When a solar flare or CME happens, it can take up to 2 days to impact the earth. Therefore, two days after a large solar flare we should see a drop in the stock market values for that day. More on the impact of such events on the financial markets and trading see also HERE.

Sunspot Cycle 24: "None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle"

Conventional wisdom holds that solar activity swings back and forth like a simple pendulum.  At one end of the cycle, there is a quiet time with few sunspots and flares. At the other end, Solar Maximum brings high sunspot numbers and solar storms. It’s a regular rhythm that repeats every 11 years. 

Reality, however, is more complicated. Astronomers have been counting sunspots for centuries, and they have seen that the solar cycle is not perfectly regular. For one thing, the back-and-forth swing in sunspot counts can take anywhere from 10 to 13 years to complete; also, the amplitude of the cycle varies. Some solar maxima are very weak, others very strong (HERE). 

But "none of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle [as the sunspot cycle 24]", said Dr. Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University and other prominent solar scientists at the 2013 Fall Meeting of American Geophysical Union (AGU), held on December 11, 2013 in San Francisco. This solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s (see also HERE & HERE).

John Hampson recently expected the "solar cycle 24′s flat top to end by mid-2014", and one of two possibities playing out: "One, equities peak out within the next 6 months, commodities don’t come again, and we thereafter enter the typical post-solar-peak recession (deflationary). Or, two, equities are peaking now and commodities are breaking upwards out of their large consoliation triangles since 2011 to produce a typical late-cyclical final rally and help tip the weak economy into that recession." (see also HERE).

Credits: John Hampson

Credits: Jan Alvestad

 

Credits: Jan Alvestad

2013 - Peaks in Solar Cycle #24, Stocks and Commodities

Credits: John Hampson

... Solar peaks occur roughly every 11 years and secular peaks in equities and commodities occur close to solar peaks. There is a sine wave in long term real stocks and an opposite-polarity sine wave in long term real commodities, both which have around a 33 year (equivalent to 3 solar cycles or 1 lunisolar cycle) duration ... Treasuries (or inverse rates/yields) move in around a 66 year cycle (2 lunisolar cycles) with peaks and troughs converging with secular commodities peaks. The result is we see two different kinds of secular commodities bulls: one set against rates moving to a peak, and one set against rates moving to nothing ...