2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity | Vladimir Belkin

This study of solar-terrestrial relationships compares the years of the solar cycle based on Wolf sunspot numbers and the arithmetic averages of crude oil prices from 1970 to 2023 (solar cycles 20-25), all presented in a single chart. Mean annual Wolf numbers were sourced from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC), while Brent crude oil price data (adjusted to 2021 dollars) was obtained from BP and the Federal Reserve Economic Data website for 2022-2023.

Order of years in solar cycles and crude oil prices for the period 1970-2023.

Very strong correlation (coefficient 0.9908)

 

Using this data, the above diagram was created to illustrate the very strong correlation (coefficient 0.9908) between crude oil prices and the ordinal years of the solar cycles for the period 1970-2023.

 

 Polynomial function of oil price and year number in solar cycle for 1861–2019.

Very strong correlation (coefficient 0.9897)

Since 2024 marks the fifth year of the current Solar Cycle #25, it corresponds to an average forecast Brent oil price of $74.18 per barrel. In 2025, the sixth year of the cycle, the projected price is $56.04. In 2026, the seventh year of the cycle, the forecast is $43.84, while the anticipated price for 2027 is $42.84.

 

Reference: 

Vladimir Belkin (October 1, 2024) - Oil Price Decline in 2025-2027. 

 

See also:
Vladimir Belkin (2020) - Oil Prices and Solar Activity: Evidence of Strong Ties (1861–2019). 

Lu Qiyuan (2024) - Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0.

Mikhail Gorbanev (2017) - Solar Activity and Economic Recessions. 

Sunspot Number 2018 into 2032 (NASA, updated December 5, 2024).

 

 SIDC 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number.

405 Year Sunspot Record Revised and Newly Calibrated

Credits: SILSO Data - Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels

Dating back to Galileo and the invention of the telescope, the 405-year solar sunspot record is the longest continuously monitored daily measurement in all of science. Studies into sunspots, solar and planetary cycles corresponding with trade cycles, crop prices and shifts in the markets have accelerated since the 19th century. Now, on July 1st, 2015 the official sunspot record underwent a complete overhaul for the first time since it was created by Swiss astronomer Rudolf Wolf in 1849. The newly calibrated record is likely to have implications in many diverse scientific disciplines including financial astrology.

Yet, this important change to one of science’s most fundamental measurements went literally unnoticed (HERE & HERE) Two sunspot record time series were recalibrated: The first is the traditional International Sunspot Number (ISN) record most people are familiar with. The second is the more physically meaningful group number. Groups have always been counted as part of the ISN. The newly released group number update redefines and corrects defects in the original 1998 version. The newly rebuilt group number time series shows that solar activity is considerably more ‘even’ over its 405-year history than previously thought. Formerly, it looked as though sunspot activity in the past was much weaker than at present, especially prior to 1890. Counting inconsistencies artificially created that non-existent effect. The rebuilt record contains four distinctive dips in solar activity that occur roughly every 100 years.