Lieutenant-General
Sir John Bagot Glubb (1897 – 1986), known as Glubb Pasha, was
a British army officer, scholar, and author, who led the Transjordan's Arab Legion between 1939 and 1956 as its commanding general. Glubb
was a man of his time and class, he wrote some 20 books about the Arab world and Islam, and in 1978 a short treatise titled “The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival”. In this he describes a rising civilization as a society where people have a sense of duty and service, practical attitudes, a strong merchant class, and a desire for conquest.
The characteristics
of a falling civilizations include frivolity, love of money instead of duty,
excessive reverence for celebrities, and the rise of intellect over action. Despite an empire’s geographic, religious, cultural, and technological differences,
they all follow the same pattern of expansion, development, decline, and
collapse. Using this knowledge, Glubb hoped that through understanding how
empires decline, the British Empire could stand a chance at avoiding the same
fate. Although the rise and fall of civilization are as unstoppable as the
change of seasons, countries can mitigate losses by preparing for the future.
Glubb
formulates a set of patterns that empires experience until their eventual
collapse. His framework consists of six stages that are characteristic of superpowers
and follows the idea of cyclical paradigms in the historical record. Glubb
estimates that on average empires last 250 years or 10 generations:
1. The Age of Pioneers (The Outburst)
2. The Age of Conquest
3. The Age of Commerce
4. The Age of Affluence (The High Noon)
5. The Age of Intellect
6. The Age of Decadence (Midnight)
Glubb’s
formulation of collapse is inherently controversial, but he understands this
keenly. Those living in or around a “collapsing” empire could never truly
observe it, at least not directly - after all no citizen easily perceives or
admits that the empire is failing or has failed. The human spirit is adaptive,
and embraces many harsh and diverse conditions with exceptional ease. It is not
a “gradually, then suddenly” - but a perpetuity of gradual decline. A collapse
is realized centuries later by future hopefuls far removed, or in Glubb’s grim
case, barbarians. Glubb’s sense of collapse implies a steady and progressive
softening and weakening of an empire, nation, or power. “Empires do not usually begin or end on a
certain date. There is normally a gradual period of expansion and then a period
of decline. Human affairs are subject to many chances, and it is not to be
expected that they could be calculated with mathematical accuracy.”
“The only thing we learn from
history, is that men never learn from history”. His central proposition on
collapse stems from the questionable way empires pass down history. Glubb
considered an accurate generational transfer of history a crucial guard against
collapse. Powers that retained fairly objective histories would win out in the
long run as a matter of historical record in Glubb’s view. “Our people are represented as patriotic heroes,
their enemies as grasping imperialists, or subversive rebels. In other words,
our national histories are propaganda, not well-balanced investigations.” Further,
in the wider historical sense, Glubb argues that for world history to be useful
- it must be an accurate and collective history of the human race. “Any useful
lessons to be derived must be learned by the study of the whole flow of human
development, not by the selection of short periods here and there in one
country or another.”
Age
of Pioneers
The
age of pioneers is marked by a sense of freedom and boldness characteristic of
new encounters with the unknown. Pioneers are not limited to conventions or
traditions. The leaders of the pioneers are creative, set the stage, and are
free to improvise unique solutions and compromises. The old virtues -
diligence, courage, honor, and loyalty rule the day. “Uninhibited by textbooks
or book learning, action is their solution to every problem.”
Age
of Conquest
The
age of conquest is a period of military action and land acquisition. Glubb
marks this period by the simmering desire for commerce and wealth by the
public. The military may be proud and honorable, but conquest is driven mainly
by a merchant class who usher in the age of commerce. “During the military period, glory and honor were the principal objects
of ambition. To the merchant, such ideas are but empty words, which add nothing
to the bank balance.”
Age
of Commerce
Glubb
marks the age of commerce by the ease at which goods are transported. In this
period, trade is simplified and the ease of doing business maximized. The
empire controls all trade routes, resulting in little to no interdependence in
the domains of commerce and travel. “The
means of transport were slower, but, when a great empire was in control,
commerce was freed from the innumerable shackles imposed upon it today by
passports, import permits, customs, boycotts and political interference.”
The age of affluence is identified by a subtle distinction
in the value and utility of education. In an empire’s high noon, knowledge is
viewed only as a path to riches, with its practical and virtuous foundations
taking an indefinite back seat. Glubb intuits that as with the Arab decline,
there is a gradual loss of knowledge that would have bolstered the empire’s
institutions. “The Arab moralist, Ghazali
(1058-1111), complains in these very same words of the lowering of objectives
in the declining Arab world of his time. Students, he says, no longer attend
college to acquire learning and virtue, but to obtain those qualifications
which will enable them to grow rich.”
The
age of intellect is marked by the common idea that education will solve all the
problems in the world. It is this idea that underscores what Glubb terms “the
inadequacy of intellect”. Glubb’s banal observation is that problem solving and
cohesion among people depend simply on the principles that encourage
self–sacrifice, loyalty, courage, and trust. Intellect is a product of these
old virtues, and not the primary ingredient. “In a wider national sphere, the survival of the nation depends
basically on the loyalty and self–sacrifice of the citizens. The impression
that the situation can be saved by mental cleverness, without unselfishness or
human self–dedication, can only lead to collapse.”
The
age of decadence is signaled by increased pessimism and cynicism among citizens
as the empire marches towards midnight. Civil dissensions predominantly in
matters of politics become more tribal and pronounced. The pervasive pessimism
and cynicism is assuaged through various means and frivolity becomes the order
of the day. Glubb writes: “Frivolity is
the frequent companion of pessimism. Let us eat, drink and be merry, for
tomorrow we die. The resemblance between various declining nations in this respect
is truly surprising. The Roman mob, we have seen, demanded free meals and public
games. Gladiatorial shows, chariot races and athletic events were their
passion. In the Byzantine Empire the rivalries of the Greens and the Blues in
the hippodrome attained the importance of a major crisis. Judging by the time
and space allotted to them in the Press and television, football and baseball
are the activities which today chiefly interest the public in Britain and the
United States respectively. The heroes of declining nations are always the
same - the athlete, the singer or the actor. The word ‘celebrity’ today is used
to designate a comedian or a football player, not a statesman, a general, or a
literary genius.”
“In 10th century Baghdad, contemporary
historians lamented the decadence of the period, which was signified by who the
citizens considered their heroes. [They] deeply deplored the degeneracy of the times in which they
lived, emphasizing particularly the indifference to religion, the increasing
materialism and the laxity of sexual morals. They lamented also the corruption
of the officials of the government and the fact that politicians always seemed
to amass large fortunes while they were in office. The historians commented
bitterly on the extraordinary influence acquired by popular singers over young
people, resulting in a decline in sexual morality. The ‘pop’ singers of Baghdad
accompanied their erotic songs on the lute, an instrument resembling the modern
guitar. In the second half of the tenth century, as a result, much obscene
sexual language came increasingly into use, such as would not have been
tolerated in an earlier age. Several khalifs issued orders banning ‘pop’
singers from the capital, but within a few years they always returned.”
When the welfare state was first introduced
in Britain, it was hailed as a new high-water mark in the history of human
development. History, however, seems to suggest that the age of decline of a
great nation is often a period which shows a tendency to philanthropy and to
sympathy for other races. This phase may not be contradictory to the feeling
described in the previous paragraph, that the dominant race has the right to
rule the world. For the citizens of the great nation enjoy the role of Lady
Bountiful. As long as it retains its status of leadership, the imperial people
are glad to be generous, even if slightly condescending. The rights of
citizenship are generously bestowed on every race, even those formerly subject,
and the equality of mankind is proclaimed. The Roman Empire passed through this
phase, when equal citizenship was thrown open to all peoples, such provincials
even becoming senators and emperors. The Arab Empire of Baghdad was equally,
perhaps even more, generous. During the Age of Conquests, pure-bred Arabs had
constituted a ruling class, but in the ninth century the empire was completely
cosmopolitan. State assistance to the young and the poor was equally generous.
University students received government grants to cover their expenses while
they were receiving higher education. The State likewise offered free medical
treatment to the poor. The first free public hospital was opened in Baghdad in
the reign of Harun al-Rashid (786-809), and under his son, Mamun, free public
hospitals sprang up all over the Arab world from Spain to what is now Pakistan.
The impression that it will always be automatically rich causes the declining
empire to spend lavishly on its own benevolence, until such time as the economy
collapses, the universities are closed and the hospitals fall into ruin. It may
perhaps be incorrect to picture the welfare state as the high-water mark of
human attainment. It may merely prove to be one more regular milestone in the life-story
of an ageing and decrepit empire.
It is of interest to note that
decadence is the disintegration of a system, not of its individual members. The
habits of the members of the community have been corrupted by the enjoyment of
too much money and too much power for too long a period. The result has been,
in the framework of their national life, to make them selfish and idle. A
community of selfish and idle people declines, internal quarrels develop in the
division of its dwindling wealth, and pessimism follows, which some of them endeavor to drown in sensuality or frivolity. In their own surroundings, they
are unable to redirect their thoughts and their energies into new channels.
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But when individual members of such a
society emigrate into entirely new surroundings, they do not remain conspicuously
decadent, pessimistic or immoral among the inhabitants of their new homeland.
Once enabled to break away from their old channels of thought, and after a
short period of readjustment, they become normal citizens of their adopted
countries. Some of them, in the second and third generations, may attain
pre-eminence and leadership in their new communities. This seems to prove that
the decline of any nation does not undermine the energies or the basic
character of its members. Nor does the decadence of a number of such nations
permanently impoverish the human race.
Decadence is both mental and moral
deterioration, produced by the slow decline of the community from which its
members cannot escape, as long as they remain in their old surroundings. But,
transported elsewhere, they soon discard their decadent ways of thought, and
prove themselves equal to the other citizens of their adopted country. Neither
is decadence physical. The citizens of nations in decline are sometimes
described as too physically emasculated to be able to bear hardship or make
great efforts. This does not seem to be a true picture. Citizens of great nations
in decadence are normally physically larger and stronger than those of their
barbarian invaders [...] Decadence is a moral and spiritual disease,
resulting from too long a period of wealth and power, producing cynicism,
decline of religion, pessimism and frivolity. The citizens of such a nation
will no longer make an effort to save themselves, because they are not
convinced that anything in life is worth saving."
If
superpowers inevitably break down around the 10th generation, then in Glubb’s
framework the global empire of the United States would be superseded by another great power by the
year 2026 at the very least.
Reference:
See also:
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When the ordinary thought of a highly cultivated people begins
to regard 'having children' as a question of pro's and con's,
the great turning point has come. - Oswald Spengler, 1918 |
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