Showing posts with label Mundane Astrology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mundane Astrology. Show all posts

Monday, November 11, 2024

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Barometers │ Turning Points in 2025

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices for 2025 (EST/EDT).
 
Q4 2024.
 
Q1 2025.
 
Q2 2025. 
 
Q3 2025.  
 
Q4 2025.  

The Bradley Barometer (also known as Bradley Siderograph or simply Bradley Index) is a financial astrology indicator created by Donald Albert Bradley (1925-1974) in the 1940s. Bradley developed a barometer that combines planetary transits. By assigning positive values to favorable transits and negative values to unfavorable ones, he created a weighted net sum oscillator graph.


The equation for the Bradley Barometer indicator is calculated as follows:

[ (5) × (Long Term Value Sums + Declination Value Sums) ] + Middle Term Value Sums

The factor of five in the formula gives greater weight to (1) planetary aspects considered "Long Term" and (2) declinations. The Middle Term values represent planetary aspects that are important but receive less weight than the Long Terms. There are a total of 36 planetary aspects considered in the Barometer, broken down as follows:
  • Long Term Aspects: 10 of the 36 aspects are classified as Long Term. These aspects generally involve the slower-moving outer planets (e.g., Jupiter, Saturn), and Bradley believed they should carry greater weight.
  • Middle Term Aspects: 26 of the 36 aspects are classified as Middle Term. These aspects include the Sun and the faster-moving planets, from Mercury to Mars.
  • Short Term Aspects: None of the 36 aspects are classified as Short Term. Bradley considered aspects involving the Moon to be Short Term, affecting only a few hours. Therefore, Short Term aspects are not incorporated in the Bradley Barometer, as they are not expected to influence medium- to long-term market behavior.
The slower-moving planets with longer synodic periods (e.g., Jupiter and other outer planets) compose the Long Term aspects, and these receive five times the weight of the Middle Term aspects. A synodic period between two planets is the time it takes for them to return to the same relative position in the sky (i.e., their conjunction).
 
The original geocentric Bradley Barometer takes planetary declination into account—planets higher in the sky above the horizon are given more positive values, while those lower in the sky, below the horizon, are assigned negative values. According to Donald Bradley, "The value of the declination factor is half the algebraic sum of the given declinations of Venus and Mars—northern declination considered positive and southern declination negative." It is also important to note that Bradley used a multiplier when calculating the value of declinations for the overall barometer.

Regarding this multiplier, Bradley stated that the Long Term and declination factors "may be given considerably more weight by multiplying them by 3, 4, or 5 times, depending on experimentation." Therefore, in computing the Bradley Barometer, one adds together (1) the sum of all the planetary aspects of the Middle Terms, and (2) the Declinations and Long Term Factors, adjusted by a multiplier, such as 3X, 4X, or 5X. 
 
The heliocentric index is an adaptation of the original geocentric Barometer concept, using heliocentric planetary positions instead. 
 
Donald A. Bradley, 1945.

Although there is no known physical correlation between these celestial movements and market behavior, the Bradley Barometer has been shown to correlate well with market turning points. However, regarding the limitations of his astro-indicator, Donald Bradley himself remarked the following:
 
"At no time must the reader gain the impression that a siderograph, as such, is a prediction of what the stock market will actually do. Nevertheless, observation proves that basic reversals in collective attitudes, clearly predicted by the line, are inevitably mirrored in stock averages. A limitation of the siderograph is that it cannot be construed as a forecast of secular trends. In statistical terminology, 'lines of regression' fitted to the market course and to the potential should not be expected to completely agree, for reasons obvious to anyone with keen business sense or commercial training."

Bradley indices are often misinterpreted, with many linking the slopes directly to market trends. Tops and bottoms can signal potential turning points in price, whether a peak or a trough. The importance of these turn dates is not dependent on the magnitude of the change before or after the turn, meaning that even moderate shifts can be just as significant as larger ones.

Abbreviations: geo = Geocentric Bradley Index; helio = Heliocentric Bradley Index; (L) = low; (H) = high. Expect the exactitude of turning points to be within ±1 day.

Geocentric Turning Points: 
2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = geo (L)    
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2024 Dec 27 (Fri) = geo (L)    
2025 Feb 02 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = geo (L)    
2025 Mar 24 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Apr 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 04 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 May 14 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 27 (Tue) = geo (H)    
2025 Jun 14 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jun 16 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Jun 17 (Tue) = geo (L)    
2025 Jul 05 (Sat) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 19 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Aug 13 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2025 Sep 03 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = geo (H)    
2025 Oct 08 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Oct 28 (Tue) = geo (H)    
2025 Nov 08 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Nov 22 (Sat) = geo (H)    
2025 Dec 22 (Mon) = geo (L)    
2026 Jan 19 (Mon) = geo (H)    

Heliocentric Turning Points:    
2024 Dec 03 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 09 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 12 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 15 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 16 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 19 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 20 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 22 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Jan 10 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Jan 22 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 01 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 06 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 08 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 16 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 20 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 22 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 26 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 01 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 05 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 10 (Mon) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 15 (Sat) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 19 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 20 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 25 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 28 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 29 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Apr 04 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Apr 09 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Apr 20 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Apr 29 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 May 15 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 May 18 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 May 20 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 May 28 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Jun 01 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Jun 04 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Jun 05 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Jun 06 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Jun 20 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Jul 01 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 Jul 04 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Jul 11 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Jul 29 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 01 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 03 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 05 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 09 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 11 (Mon) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 14 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 16 (Sat) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 18 (Mon) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 20 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 25 (Mon) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 29 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 31 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 01 (Mon) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 02 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 05 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 14 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 21 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 24 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 26 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Oct 02 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Oct 05 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Oct 15 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Oct 24 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Oct 29 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Oct 30 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 02 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 06 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 07 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 09 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 13 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 14 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 16 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 20 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 25 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 29 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Dec 05 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Dec 10 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Dec 23 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 Dec 25 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Dec 27 (Sat) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 02 (Fri) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 08 (Thu) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 16 (Fri) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 17 (Sat) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 21 (Wed) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 25 (Sun) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 26 (Mon) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 31 (Sat) = helio (L)

Geocentric and Heliocentric Turning Points:    
2024 Dec 03 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = geo (L)    
2024 Dec 09 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 12 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 15 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 16 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2024 Dec 19 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 20 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 22 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 27 (Fri) = geo (L)    
2025 Jan 10 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Jan 22 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 01 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 02 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Feb 06 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 08 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 16 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 20 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = geo (L)    
2025 Feb 22 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 26 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 01 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 05 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 10 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 15 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 19 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 20 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 24 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Mar 25 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 28 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 29 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Apr 04 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Apr 09 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Apr 20 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Apr 29 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Apr 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 04 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 May 14 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 15 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 May 18 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 May 20 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 May 27 (Tue) = geo (H)    
2025 May 28 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Jun 01 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Jun 04 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Jun 05 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Jun 06 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Jun 14 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jun 16 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Jun 17 (Tue) = geo (L)    
2025 Jun 20 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Jul 01 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Jul 04 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Jul 05 (Sat) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 11 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Jul 19 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Jul 29 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Jul 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Aug 01 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 03 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 05 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 09 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 11 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 13 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2025 Aug 14 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 16 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 18 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 20 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 25 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 29 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 31 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 01 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 02 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 03 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Sep 05 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = geo (H)    
2025 Sep 14 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 21 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 24 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 26 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Oct 02 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Oct 05 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Oct 08 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Oct 15 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Oct 24 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Oct 28 (Tue) = geo (H)    
2025 Oct 29 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Oct 30 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 02 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 06 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 07 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 08 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Nov 09 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 13 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 14 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 16 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 20 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 22 (Sat) = geo (H)    
2025 Nov 25 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 29 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Dec 05 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Dec 10 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Dec 22 (Mon) = geo (L)    
2025 Dec 23 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 Dec 25 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Dec 27 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 02 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 08 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 16 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 17 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 19 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2026 Jan 21 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 25 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 26 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 31 (Sat) = helio (L)    
 


The New Moon typically marks the beginning of a cycle, while the Full Moon signifies its completion.
In bull markets, New Moons are often bottoms, and Full Moons are tops.
In bear markets, New Moons are often tops, and Full Moons are bottoms.

Major news releases (NFP, CPI, PPI, PMI, FOMC, etc.) and options expiration dates (especially Quad and Triple Witching) can delay or disrupt typical cyclical market behavior and astro signals.
 
Price always moves from Consolidation to Expansion, never from Consolidation to Reversal or from Consolidation to Retracement. After an Expansion, two possible scenarios can occur: either a Retracement or a Reversal, followed by another Expansion or Consolidation.
 
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Monday, December 11, 2023

Geocentric Bradley Barometer │ Turning Points in 2024


2023 Nov 13 (Mon) = High
2023 Dec 17 (Sun) = Low
2023 Dec 22 (Fri) = High
2024 Jan 04 (Thu) = Low
2024 Jan 13 (Sat) = High
2024 Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
2024 Jan 29 (Mon) = High
2024 Feb 09 (Fri) = Low
2024 Feb 13 (Tue) = High
2024 Feb 25 (Sun) = Low
2024 May 26 (Sun) = High
2024 Jun 11 (Tue) = Low
2024 Jun 29 (Sat) = High
2024 Aug 19 (Mon) = Low
2024 Aug 29 (Thu) = High
2024 Sep 07 (Sat) = Low
2024 Sep 14 (Sat) = High
2024 Sep 19 (Thu) = Low
2024 Sep 27 (Fri) = High
2024 Oct 01 (Tue) = Low
2024 Oct 05 (Sat) = High
2024 Oct 27 (Sun) = Low
2024 Nov 02 (Sat) = High
2024 Nov 13 (Wed) = Low
2024 Nov 25 (Mon) = High
2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = Low
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = High
2024 Dec 26 (Thu) = Low

[ calculated and charted for New York City (EST / EDT) with Timing Solution ]

The very well‐known financial astrology indicator known as the Bradley Barometer [or Bradley Siderograph] was created by Donald Bradley in 1947. The theory was that what is happening up in the sky affects human behavior on earth, so Bradley created a barometer that was a combination of transits. By assigning positive values to positive transits and negative values to negative transits he created a weighted net sum oscillator graph. The Bradley also includes the declination of planets. The higher in the sky that a planet appears above the horizon, the more positive the value. The lower in the sky that a planet appears below the horizon, the more negative the value. This Bradley Barometer graph correlated well to the markets even though there was no known physical correlation. The Bradley does very well in forecasting the headwinds or tailwinds of long‐term market moves that can occur over many months […] In recent years, it has shown quite a number of failures. This may be due to a variety of factors. If the Bradley Barometer measures the natural organic flow of the market, then there are certainly external artificial influences that can diminish its effectiveness. Some of these factors may include high‐frequency trading and/or government interference through central bank stimulus. Artificial inflation will cause a market to rise regardless of transits. The market will still oscillate, but with an upward bias. Another important angle to consider about the Bradley is that it designed to be taken in the context of what is happening in the market. The Bradley Barometer is an oscillator. We all know that the market does not oscillate back and forth all the time.

Over the past century, the market has trended higher. However, in between, there are cyclical bull markets and bear markets and sometimes there are consolidation periods. Everything forecast must be taken in its relative context to current market conditions. In a bull market, the down periods in the Bradley may simply mark sideways consolidation periods. It is useful to think of negative planetary transits in the face of a bull market as being nothing more than headwinds that are just a pause in the uptrend. It also follows that in a bull market the periods of the Bradley may mark the largest bull runs. In bear markets, the positive runs in the Bradley model serve as just pauses in the selling. The negative drops in the Bradley mark periods of intense selling in the market. In neutral markets, the Bradley tends to mirror market movement like an oscillator. nevertheless, the Bradley is a very popular model to this day, and many financial astrologers still use it as a backbone to get an overall picture of what the market is doing or what it made do in the future.

 
ooo0ooo
 
Also consider:
New Moons typically mark beginnings of cycles, and Full Moons mark completions. 
In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are tops. 
In bear markets, New Moons are tops, and Full Moons are bottoms. 
More often than not, stocks will rise from around the 7th to around the 14th calendar day of a month, 
fall from the 14th to the 20th, and rise from the 20th to the 25th.
Major Red News Releases (NFP, CPI, PPI, PMI, FOMC etc.) and Options Expiration Dates (especially Quad and Triple Witching)
may delay or cancel typical cyclical market behavior and astro signals.
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Friday, September 8, 2023

Cycles Write World History | Donald A. Bradley

Research embracing many fields of scientific pursuit and all available historical records proves that the climate of the earth as a whole goes through long cycles. World-climate shifts from cold to warm periods and from wet to dry periods with amazing regularity. Dry periods accompanied by colder weather take place about every 170 years, every third such “cold drought” being severe in its effects.

"The turning points between old and new civilizations occur when 
cold-dry times reach their maximum severity."

Professor Raymond H. Wheeler, eminent psychologist of the University of Kansas, heads this study project which finds an important correlation between world climate and political history. Dr. Wheeler's analysis of an immense accumulation of data shows that great international changes occur on these shifts from warm to cold and vice versa. Nations deteriorate on the shift from warm to cold, the study reveals. What is probably most fascinating among the findings is that totalitarianism is representative of world-wide political sentiment during warm periods. Democracy is vivified and sought after by men during cold periods. Intervals of cold droughts usually coincide with eras of civil wars. International wars are fought, for the most part, during warmer times. The Wheeler project has identified basic mass-psychological patterns with every climatic condition found in the global weather cycle. Public attitudes and popular ideas are directly colored by the general nature of the world-climate prevailing at any time.
 
Raymond H. Wheeler and his 'big book'.
 
Astrology offers a logical explanation for this 170-year rhythm in world activities. It is hardly a coincidence that every cold-drought is synchronized with one of the solar system's major planetary configurations. Called a great mutation in astrological parlance, a conjunction of the planets Uranus and Neptune occurs every 171 years, on the average. These conjunctions are within effective orb for 15 years before and after their central date of coming-together in the sky. This Uranus-Neptune cycle leaves a continuous impression on the unwinding scroll of world history in inciting those conditions in human and natural affairs described.

Central conjunctions of Uranus and Neptune took place in the A.D. years of 
110, 281, 453, 624, 796, 967, 1139, 1310, 1481, 1653 and 1824 [1906-10, 1993, 2078-81, 2165]

[The years cited mark the general centers of the 30-year influence at work. They are computed for the conjunctions in mean heliocentric longitude, and not for the apparent (geocentric) times of occurrence. The time-margin allowed for this difference is nearly a whole decade.]

Each of these epochs is at or near the dead center of a period of serious cold drought recorded in the annals of history and science. It is no surprise to the astrologer that lowered mean temperature, lack of much rainfall, political stress and civil war itself should be typical of our earth’s response to these vibrations. Uranian influences alone have long been recognized as revolutionary in action. Neptune is peculiarly associated with meteorological matters, and also with canons of idealistic thought. Astrologers are generally agreed that Neptune is the planet of “isms” and ideologies which provoke national and international changes of attitude. Uranus is disruptive in action and progressive in the long run. Neptune, on the other hand, is said to determine world sentiments which have an emotional base. Conjunctions of these divergent forces bring about the years of famine and civil strife which make and break the great economic and political structures we call nations.

The primary precipitation-and-temperature cycle is obviously connected with a particular interplanetary periodicity. There are dozens if not hundreds of other cycles in man’s social and natural environment which can be traced to similar causes. Relations of two or more planets to each other as viewed from the earth are called aspects. The positions of any moving heavenly body across the great star-sprangled backdrop of the sky are called transits. In astrology, we make use of the term transit to mean the location of a planet by the sign of the zodiac it occupies. Aspects and sign-transits of the various planets are the fundamental causes of cycles on earth. Although not actually zodiacal factors, the declinations of certain planets and changes in the elements of planetary orbits are found to be strong components in the astrological theory of world cycles.

Above and beyond true physical phenomena is the strange tendency of world affairs toward cycles which reflect the general connotations of successive zodiacal signs. This is apparent if one reconsiders the famous historical analyses of Oswald Spengler in the light of astrology. Spengler’s anthropomorphic outlines of spiritual, cultural and political “contemporary epochs” seem to follow a fascinating zodiac of characteristics, commencing each broad swing in mankind’s affairs with typical Aries qualities, and culminating it, after ten more eras, with Piscean attributes. The reason for this inclination is inexplicable, at the present, as no astronomical connection has been discovered.

Mention of such interesting matters lays the groundwork for our immediate subject — that of applying astrology as a calculable gauge of contemporary economic conditions.

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Friday, August 11, 2023

The Geography of Violence | All Recorded Battles in History

» War is father of all, and king of all.
He renders some gods, others men; he makes some slaves, others free.
We must know that war is common to all and strife is justice,
and that all things come into being and pass away through strife. «
 
Heraclitus (c. 500 BC), Fragments 53 & 80.

Reference:
NodeGoat (2023) - Battles in History. (interactive website) 

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Monday, March 6, 2023

The Fate of Empires | Lieutenant-General Sir John Bagot Glubb

Lieutenant-General Sir John Bagot Glubb (1897 – 1986), known as Glubb Pasha, was a British army officer, scholar, and author, who led the Transjordan's Arab Legion between 1939 and 1956 as its commanding general. Glubb was a man of his time and class, he wrote some 20 books about the Arab world and Islam, and in 1978 a short treatise titled “The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival”. In this he describes a rising civilization as a society where people have a sense of duty and service, practical attitudes, a strong merchant class, and a desire for conquest.  
 

The characteristics of a falling civilizations include frivolity, love of money instead of duty, excessive reverence for celebrities, and the rise of intellect over action. Despite an empire’s geographic, religious, cultural, and technological differences, they all follow the same pattern of expansion, development, decline, and collapse. Using this knowledge, Glubb hoped that through understanding how empires decline, the British Empire could stand a chance at avoiding the same fate. Although the rise and fall of civilization are as unstoppable as the change of seasons, countries can mitigate losses by preparing for the future. 
 

Glubb formulates a set of patterns that empires experience until their eventual collapse. His framework consists of six stages that are characteristic of superpowers and follows the idea of cyclical paradigms in the historical record. Glubb estimates that on average empires last 250 years or 10 generations:
 
1. The Age of Pioneers (The Outburst)
2. The Age of Conquest
3. The Age of Commerce
4. The Age of Affluence (The High Noon)
5. The Age of Intellect
6. The Age of Decadence (Midnight)

Glubb’s formulation of collapse is inherently controversial, but he understands this keenly. Those living in or around a “collapsing” empire could never truly observe it, at least not directly - after all no citizen easily perceives or admits that the empire is failing or has failed. The human spirit is adaptive, and embraces many harsh and diverse conditions with exceptional ease. It is not a “gradually, then suddenly” - but a perpetuity of gradual decline. A collapse is realized centuries later by future hopefuls far removed, or in Glubb’s grim case, barbarians. Glubb’s sense of collapse implies a steady and progressive softening and weakening of an empire, nation, or power. “Empires do not usually begin or end on a certain date. There is normally a gradual period of expansion and then a period of decline. Human affairs are subject to many chances, and it is not to be expected that they could be calculated with mathematical accuracy.” 
 
“The only thing we learn from history, is that men never learn from history”. His central proposition on collapse stems from the questionable way empires pass down history. Glubb considered an accurate generational transfer of history a crucial guard against collapse. Powers that retained fairly objective histories would win out in the long run as a matter of historical record in Glubb’s view. “Our people are represented as patriotic heroes, their enemies as grasping imperialists, or subversive rebels. In other words, our national histories are propaganda, not well-balanced investigations.” Further, in the wider historical sense, Glubb argues that for world history to be useful - it must be an accurate and collective history of the human race. “Any useful lessons to be derived must be learned by the study of the whole flow of human development, not by the selection of short periods here and there in one country or another.”
 

(1.) The Age of Pioneers
The age of pioneers is marked by a sense of freedom and boldness characteristic of new encounters with the unknown. Pioneers are not limited to conventions or traditions. The leaders of the pioneers are creative, set the stage, and are free to improvise unique solutions and compromises. The old virtues - diligence, courage, honor, and loyalty rule the day. “Uninhibited by textbooks or book learning, action is their solution to every problem.”
 

(2.) The Age of Conquest
The age of conquest is a period of military action and land acquisition. Glubb marks this period by the simmering desire for commerce and wealth by the public. The military may be proud and honorable, but conquest is driven mainly by a merchant class who usher in the age of commerce. “During the military period, glory and honor were the principal objects of ambition. To the merchant, such ideas are but empty words, which add nothing to the bank balance.”

 

(3.) The Age of Commerce
Glubb marks the age of commerce by the ease at which goods are transported. In this period, trade is simplified and the ease of doing business maximized. The empire controls all trade routes, resulting in little to no interdependence in the domains of commerce and travel. “The means of transport were slower, but, when a great empire was in control, commerce was freed from the innumerable shackles imposed upon it today by passports, import permits, customs, boycotts and political interference.”


(4.) The Age of Affluence
The age of affluence is identified by a subtle distinction in the value and utility of education. In an empire’s high noon, knowledge is viewed only as a path to riches, with its practical and virtuous foundations taking an indefinite back seat. Glubb intuits that as with the Arab decline, there is a gradual loss of knowledge that would have bolstered the empire’s institutions. “The Arab moralist, Ghazali (1058-1111), complains in these very same words of the lowering of objectives in the declining Arab world of his time. Students, he says, no longer attend college to acquire learning and virtue, but to obtain those qualifications which will enable them to grow rich.”


(5.) The Age of Intellect
The age of intellect is marked by the common idea that education will solve all the problems in the world. It is this idea that underscores what Glubb terms “the inadequacy of intellect”. Glubb’s banal observation is that problem solving and cohesion among people depend simply on the principles that encourage self–sacrifice, loyalty, courage, and trust. Intellect is a product of these old virtues, and not the primary ingredient. “In a wider national sphere, the survival of the nation depends basically on the loyalty and self–sacrifice of the citizens. The impression that the situation can be saved by mental cleverness, without unselfishness or human self–dedication, can only lead to collapse.”


(6.) The Age of Decadence
The age of decadence is signaled by increased pessimism and cynicism among citizens as the empire marches towards midnight. Civil dissensions predominantly in matters of politics become more tribal and pronounced. The pervasive pessimism and cynicism is assuaged through various means and frivolity becomes the order of the day. Glubb writes: “Frivolity is the frequent companion of pessimism. Let us eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die. The resemblance between various declining nations in this respect is truly surprising. The Roman mob, we have seen, demanded free meals and public games. Gladiatorial shows, chariot races and athletic events were their passion. In the Byzantine Empire the rivalries of the Greens and the Blues in the hippodrome attained the importance of a major crisis. Judging by the time and space allotted to them in the Press and television, football and baseball are the activities which today chiefly interest the public in Britain and the United States respectively. The heroes of declining nations are always the same - the athlete, the singer or the actor. The word ‘celebrity’ today is used to designate a comedian or a football player, not a statesman, a general, or a literary genius.” 
 

“In 10th century Baghdad, contemporary historians lamented the decadence of the period, which was signified by who the citizens considered their heroes. [They] deeply deplored the degeneracy of the times in which they lived, emphasizing particularly the indifference to religion, the increasing materialism and the laxity of sexual morals. They lamented also the corruption of the officials of the government and the fact that politicians always seemed to amass large fortunes while they were in office. The historians commented bitterly on the extraordinary influence acquired by popular singers over young people, resulting in a decline in sexual morality. The ‘pop’ singers of Baghdad accompanied their erotic songs on the lute, an instrument resembling the modern guitar. In the second half of the tenth century, as a result, much obscene sexual language came increasingly into use, such as would not have been tolerated in an earlier age. Several khalifs issued orders banning ‘pop’ singers from the capital, but within a few years they always returned.”


When the welfare state was first introduced in Britain, it was hailed as a new high-water mark in the history of human development. History, however, seems to suggest that the age of decline of a great nation is often a period which shows a tendency to philanthropy and to sympathy for other races. This phase may not be contradictory to the feeling described in the previous paragraph, that the dominant race has the right to rule the world. For the citizens of the great nation enjoy the role of Lady Bountiful. As long as it retains its status of leadership, the imperial people are glad to be generous, even if slightly condescending. The rights of citizenship are generously bestowed on every race, even those formerly subject, and the equality of mankind is proclaimed. The Roman Empire passed through this phase, when equal citizenship was thrown open to all peoples, such provincials even becoming senators and emperors. The Arab Empire of Baghdad was equally, perhaps even more, generous. During the Age of Conquests, pure-bred Arabs had constituted a ruling class, but in the ninth century the empire was completely cosmopolitan. State assistance to the young and the poor was equally generous. University students received government grants to cover their expenses while they were receiving higher education. The State likewise offered free medical treatment to the poor. The first free public hospital was opened in Baghdad in the reign of Harun al-Rashid (786-809), and under his son, Mamun, free public hospitals sprang up all over the Arab world from Spain to what is now Pakistan. The impression that it will always be automatically rich causes the declining empire to spend lavishly on its own benevolence, until such time as the economy collapses, the universities are closed and the hospitals fall into ruin. It may perhaps be incorrect to picture the welfare state as the high-water mark of human attainment. It may merely prove to be one more regular milestone in the life-story of an ageing and decrepit empire. 
 
It is of interest to note that decadence is the disintegration of a system, not of its individual members. The habits of the members of the community have been corrupted by the enjoyment of too much money and too much power for too long a period. The result has been, in the framework of their national life, to make them selfish and idle. A community of selfish and idle people declines, internal quarrels develop in the division of its dwindling wealth, and pessimism follows, which some of them endeavor to drown in sensuality or frivolity. In their own surroundings, they are unable to redirect their thoughts and their energies into new channels.
 
 

But when individual members of such a society emigrate into entirely new surroundings, they do not remain conspicuously decadent, pessimistic or immoral among the inhabitants of their new homeland. Once enabled to break away from their old channels of thought, and after a short period of readjustment, they become normal citizens of their adopted countries. Some of them, in the second and third generations, may attain pre-eminence and leadership in their new communities. This seems to prove that the decline of any nation does not undermine the energies or the basic character of its members. Nor does the decadence of a number of such nations permanently impoverish the human race.

Decadence is both mental and moral deterioration, produced by the slow decline of the community from which its members cannot escape, as long as they remain in their old surroundings. But, transported elsewhere, they soon discard their decadent ways of thought, and prove themselves equal to the other citizens of their adopted country. Neither is decadence physical. The citizens of nations in decline are sometimes described as too physically emasculated to be able to bear hardship or make great efforts. This does not seem to be a true picture. Citizens of great nations in decadence are normally physically larger and stronger than those of their barbarian invaders [...] Decadence is a moral and spiritual disease, resulting from too long a period of wealth and power, producing cynicism, decline of religion, pessimism and frivolity. The citizens of such a nation will no longer make an effort to save themselves, because they are not convinced that anything in life is worth saving."

If superpowers inevitably break down around the 10th generation, then in Glubb’s framework the global empire of the United States would be superseded by another great power by the year 2026 at the very least.

Reference: 
John Bagot Glubb (1978) - The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival.
 
See also:
Ibn Khaldun (1377) - Muqaddimah (مقدّمة ابن خلدون.).
Serge Bernard (Jul 25, 2016) - From Conquest To Affluence To Collapse: The 250 Year Empire Life Cycle.
John Mearsheimer (2001) - The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.
William Strauss & Neil Howe (1997) - The Fourth Turning.
Oswald Spengler (1918) - The Decline of the West.
 
» When the ordinary thought of a highly cultivated people begins
to regard 'having children' as a question of pro's and con's,
the great turning point has come. « - Oswald Spengler, 1918
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