Thursday, March 15, 2012

W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table - extended & adjusted

Reportedly W.D. Gann constructed his legendary Financial Time Table on August 8th, 1908, without an ephemeris. Gann himself has been quoted as saying that this was his greatest market discovery. It is entirely based on the moon’s north node, which completes a full cycle every 18.6-years. This is the same cycle that Louise McWhirter used to predict the stock market as well. To mimic the Lunar Declination Cycle Gann simply alternated a sequence of +19, +18, +19, +18 etc.-years across the top to get an average length of 18.6-years. However, he finally noted that an adjustment would finally be due for Dec 25th, 1989. The above table adjusted the pattern to the ephemeris. The Financial Time Table predicts years of recessions, depressions, high stock prices, panics, low stock prices, speculative times, stock market crashes, labor strikes and so on. The legend at the right of the table reads as follows:
A - Extreme low stock prices, strikes, repression, despair, and beginning of new business generation for 18-3/5 years. 4 years of rising stock prices and improving business, markets bare of goods. Young men becoming prominent.
B - High stock prices.
C - Panic
D - Low stock prices.
E - High stock prices.
F - Panic
G - Low stock prices.
H - Very high stock prices most prosperous year, waste over extravagance, most money in circulation, much speculation.
IJ - Major Panic-CRASH! 4-years of falling prices, business stagnated, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment.
K - Same as A plus strikes, unemployment, many prominent deaths. 
W.D. Gann also observed what he came to call “the decade cycle”. In his many commodity and stock market courses, he described the decade cycle this way: By studying the yearly high and low chart and going back over a long period of time, you will see the years in which bull markets culminate and the years in which bear markets begin and end.  Each decade, or 10-year cycle, which is one-tenth of 100 years, marks an important campaign… In referring to these numbers and these years, we mean the calendar years.  To understand this, study 1891 to 1900, 1901 to 1910, 1911 to 1920, 1921 to 1930 and 1931 to 1939.  The ten year cycle continues to repeat over and over, but the greatest advances and declines occur at the end of the 20-year and 30year cycles, and again at the end of the 50-year and 60-year cycles, which are stronger than the others.
1. A year in which a bear market ends and a bull market begins. 1901, 1911, 1921.
2. The second year is a year of a minor bull market, or a rally in a bear market will start at some time.  1902, 1912, 1922, 1932.
3. Starts a bear year, but the rally from the second year may run to March or April before culmination, or a decline from the 2nd year may run down and make bottom in February or March, like 1933.  1903, 1913, 1923.
4. The fourth year is a bear year, but ends the bear cycle and lays the foundation for a bull market.  Compare 1904, 1914.
5. The fifth year is the year of Ascension, and a very strong year for a bull market.  See 1905, 1915, 1925, 1935.
6. The sixth year is a bull year, in which a bull campaign which started in the fourth year ends in the Fall of the year and a fast decline starts.  See 1896, 1906, 1916, 1926.
7. Seven is a bear number and the seventh year is a bear year because 84 months or 840 degrees is 7/8ths of 90.  See 1897, 1907, 1917, but note 1927 was the end of a 60 year cycle, so not much of a decline.
8. The eighth year is a bull year.  Prices start advancing in the 7th year and reach the 90th month in the 8th year.  This is very strong and a big advance usually takes place.  Review 1898, 1908, 1918, 1928.  (2008 did not follow this pattern, which is where a little real estate cycle knowledge was helpful in this instance.)
9. Nine is the highest digit and the ninth year is the strongest of all for the bull markets.  Final bull campaigns culminate in this year after extreme advances and prices start to decline.  Bear markets usually start in September to November at the end of the 9th year and a sharp decline takes place.  See 1869, 1879, 1889, 1899, 1909, 1919 and 1929, the year of the greatest advances, culminating in the fall of that year, followed by a sharp decline.
10. Ten is a bear year.  A rally often runs until March and April; then a severe decline runs to November and December, when a new cycle begins and another rally starts.  See 1910, 1920, 1930.