Excluding the specifics of the decennial and presidential cycles, the average annual cycle of the S&P 500 since 2004 reveals five consistent seasonal periods, three of which are suitable for high-probability swing trades (90%+):
S&P 500 average annual cycle (2014-2024).
Since the S&P rises 70% of the
time, bearish trends are less consistent than bullish ones.
# 1: Mid-February to Late-March Decline: Price action shows an important top between February 14 and 15, followed by a bearish trend lasting into March 20.
Bearish from February 14-15 High to March 20 Low (2004-2023).
Average move lower: -2.35% (during 12 out of 20 years, down = 60%).
[ ¡ stats in tab referring to February 15 to March 1 (not March 20) - typo, error ?]
Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).
Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).
# 3: July Rally: Since 2009, the S&P 500 has always risen between June 27 and July 25. Not most years. Every single year.
Bullish from June 29 Low to July 25 High (2009-2023).
Average move higher: +4.27% (during 15 out of 15 years, up = 100%).
# 4: September Chop: Lack of clear bullish or bearish trends; tentatively sideways to down.
September chop between September 1 High to September 30 Low (2009-2023).
Average move higher: +2.77%. Average move lower: -2.63% (during 8 out of 15 years, down = 53%).
# 5: November Rally: S&P 500 consistently rising since 2004 and averaging a 4.88% gain.
Bullish from October 25 Low to November 30 High (2004-2023)
Average move higher: +4.88% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).