Showing posts with label Robert Miner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Robert Miner. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

S&P 500 Weekly High Expected October 21-22 | Robert Miner


E-mini S&P 500 weekly high probable by next week, ideally around October 21-22 (Mon-Tue). Followed by a 2-3 week correction. And Election Year Fall to Year End net bullish trend.

 

On Monday, October 14, the net percentage of S&P 500 members hitting 52-week highs reached the highest level (22%) since March. Forward returns for the S&P 500 have consistently been positive after strong readings in net new highs.
 

Thursday, September 19, 2024

S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025 | Jeff Hirsch

We are revising our 15-Year Projection chart. This was first drawn in 2011 when our book Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (Wiley) hit the stores. The projection was based upon, drawn from, years of historical patterns and data. In the years to follow numerous unprecedented events occurred, the Fed held its key lending rate in a range of 0 to 0.25% for an incredible seven years, under took multiple rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and essentially pledged unwavering support for the market. Many other nations and central banks around the world were taking similar or even more aggressive steps to support their own economies and markets. Negative interest rates and negative yields on 10-year bonds are not what we consider normal.
 
 
 
Our current updated projection is illustrated in the red line in the chart. In keeping with the history of market performance in pre-election years and the current trajectory of the indices, it would not surprise us for the market to continue rising through April make new high here in Q2, then pause over the weaker summer months before hitting higher highs toward yearend. Next year promises to be an embattled election year and the likelihood of another significant correction or even a bear market are higher.
 
 
 
 
 
   

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Don't Panic in or out of a Market | Robert Miner

Beware of FOMO. Don't Panic in or out of a Market. Learn to identify probable market position, specific trade opportunities and trade management.
 
ES U24 - daily closes.
» A "daily" high is likely early next week, followed by a 4-5 day or so decline. «
 
ES U24 - weekly bars.
 » ES is likely to be mostly trendless for another week or two. When the two momentum cycles are 
aligned, a consistent trend will follow. The resolution is likely to eventually be to the upside. «
 

Saturday, August 31, 2024

S&P 500 Uptrend May Extend to 5,800 Into Equinox | Robert Miner

Daily S&P 500 data from the July high shows an an A-B-C correction into August 13. Since then, the S&P 500 has continued upward and sideways, reaching a new high last Friday, August 30. With daily momentum showing a bull reversal, the S&P 500 is expected to remain bullish for the next few days and likely exceed the July high within the next week or two. The daily closing level of 5,798 is a key benchmark to watch.
 
 
Key dates to monitor include the week ending September 20, which aligns with the next Fed announcement and the fall equinox on September 22. Historically, reversals often occur near the fall equinox. If the S&P 500 remains sideways or rises into this period, it could signal the completion of the current upward trend and the onset of a counter-trend move.

 
For the next three weeks, the S&P 500 should target the range of 5,689 to 5,783 based on weekly closing data. Monitoring this range is essential. A weekly close within this range by the week ending September 20 may indicate a potential weekly high. Weekly momentum indicators suggest that the S&P 500 is likely to continue its upward trend for another two to three weeks.
 
 
See also:

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

S&P 500 Voids Potential ABC Correction | Robert Miner


S&P 500 voids potential ABC correction. Bear Reversal signal not made. 
Short term high probable by Friday, May 17th. But decline should be corrective not impulsive.

Robert Miner - May 15, 2024
 

Friday, April 26, 2024

The S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle | Robert Miner

I am recording this on April 25th and am going to talk about the S&P 500 and the election cycle today. [...] Within the next three weeks there is going to be one of the best setups within the entire election cycle. This is a setup that since 1952 had only one minor losing year (less than -1%). 
 
 
In the above chart the dark black line is the average of all election years since 1952. The gray line is the average of all election years since 1984. The red line is 2024 up to past week.


[...] The second chart just covers the beginning of March through September period of the election years. The blue line is the average of all  election years since 1952. In the first chart we saw the entire year, where the first part of the year is usually fairly negative. On average, we can see this distinct dip into the middle of May.


[...] Here are just two key pieces of information from the election year study from the spring until the end of summer. Number one, the 'summer low' is usually made around the second half of May to the first half of June. So that summer low probably hasn't been made yet. It sort of implies that the S&P is likely to be sideways to down into the second half of May. At least that is based on the averages of election years. Number two, in every election year, when the first quarter was strongly bullish (which it was in 2024), the S&P traded above the March high by September 20th - except for the year 2000, when the summer high came within just seven points of the March high by September 20th.


If the S&P happens to be sideways to down for the next few weeks, we know that the bias is overwhelmingly strong and bullish and that the S&P should then trade above the March high
before September 20th. The March high was the high of the year so far, and it is more than likely that the S&P will go sideways to down in the next few weeks. A correction would not be complete prior to May 23rd to 38% time retracement.

 

See
also:

Friday, April 12, 2024

S&P 500 Bear Reversal - Gann's Time and Price Overbalance | Robert Miner


YM and RTY have already made Bear Reversal Signal. S&P and NQ should soon confirm. Gann's time and price overbalance signals: A daily close below 5283 would be an 'overbalance of price' and strong signal the trend should be net Bear for 3-4 weeks or longer.
 
 
 

Saturday, February 17, 2024

Forecaster BS │ Robert Miner

 »
Learn to trade, ignore forecasters. «
 
'Forecasts' and 'signals' are useless without strategies and setups. A setup includes timing and levels for entry, exit, stop-loss, and position sizing in line with risk-management. This is what Robert Miner teaches in his books. Understand time cycles, price action, that price is always timed and measured; order flow, accumulation, manipulation and distribution (AMD/Power of 3); trend, trend reversal and trend continuation; time of day/week/month/quarter and risk/reward. Then develop 'signals' and strategies. Back-test. Learn to trade, ignore forecaster BS. 
 

Sunday, January 7, 2024

S&P 500 Weekly Reversal │ Robert Miner

December 29, 2023 = weekly high.

After a 9-week bull streak, the first week of 2024 closed lower = strong weekly momentum reversal.

January 05, 2024:

Expect some sideways-to-up move into around January 11-12 (Thu-Fri) before the continuation of a weekly bear trend.

Friday, September 15, 2023

Trend Reversal Entry Strategies

Trend-Reversal Entry Strategies aim to buy at or near the bottom and to sell at or near the top. Advisors and educators often reject these strategies because their technical analysis relies on lagging indicators. However, there are three high probability two-bar reversal patterns: the Reversal Day, the Signal Day and the Snap-Back Reversal Day. These are low-risk trend-reversal entry strategies for short-term trading and swing-trading. The set-ups are identified on the daily chart and the entries executed on the hourly chart or lower timeframes. The profit/loss ration needs to be 1.5 or more. Proper knowledge of market structure and price action is required.
 
How reliable are these 'text book' patterns?
Brent Penfold (2017) - Reversal Patterns.
Oddmund Groette (2023) - Reversal Day Strategy Backtest – Does It Work?

Reversal Day Trade Entry Set-Up
A Reversal Day top forms when price makes a new daily high but the day closes below the prior day's close. The current day's open and the trend to new highs is not sustained by the close. Variations of the Reversal Day are the Key Reversal Day, the Outside Reversal Day and the Outside Key Reversal Day.
 

On a Key Reversal Day the market opens below the prior day's close, makes a new high, but closes below the prior day's close and the current day's open. A Key Reversal Day is a stronger reversal signal than a Reversal Day. Outside Reversal Days and Key Reversal Days are both Outside Days and meet the criteria of the Reversal Day. Outside Reversal Days are stronger reversal indicators than Reversal Days, and Outside Key Reversal Days are even more convincing that a daily reversal has taken place. In all cases the Initial Protective Stop Loss is one tick above the high.

Signal Day Trade Entry Set-Up
A Signal Day opens above the prior day's close, makes a new high and the close is below the current day's open. The open must be in the top 1/3 of the daily range and the close must be in the bottom 1/3 to qualify as a valid Signal Day. Unlike a Reversal Day, the Signal Day's close does not have to be below the prior day's close, only below the current day's open.

The Gap Signal Day is a very strong daily reversal indicator. The entire daily range of the Gap Signal Day is above the prior day's range, leaving a gap at the end of the day. Considering the positive up close as bullish is a misleading view of a Gap Signal Day.
 

In both cases the Initial Protective Stop Loss is one tick above the high of the Signal Day.

Snap-Back Reversal Day Trade Entry Set-Up
This is a two-day reversal setup. On Day One the market makes a new high with an open in the lower 1/3 of the daily range and the high in the lop 1/3. It appears to be a very bullish day. Day Two is the Snap-Back Day with the open in the top 1/3 of the daily range and the close in the bottom 1/3. Day Two does not have to reach new highs or lows compared to Day One. The wider the range of Day One and Day Two, the stronger the indication for a reversal. A stronger Snap-Back Reversal Day has Day Two's open below Day One's close with a new daily low and a close below the prior day's low. 


The Initial Protective Stop Loss is one tick above the higher of the two days.
 
All of the above daily reversal patterns frequently occur within a trend without resulting in a sustained change of trend. Hence daily reversal set-ups are only to be considered valid when time, price and patterns are indicating a termination of the trend. 

Trend Continuation Entry Strategies

Trades can be entered after a new trend is already established. There are three low-risk trend continuation entry strategies for short-term trading and swing-trading. The set-ups are identified on the daily chart and the entries executed on the hourly chart or lower timeframes. The profit/loss ratio needs to be 1.5 or more. Proper knowledge of market structure and price action is required.
 
Inside-Day Trade Entry Set-Up
The price range of an inside-day is within the price range of the previous day. An inside-day is a day of indecision. It is a day when traders do not have strong conviction as to the trend of the market. An inside-day often occurs after a wide-range day when the range exceeded the average range of the prior few days. Inside-days also often occur either after a trend reversal or after a fast move as a brief period of consolidation within a larger trend. Usually, the direction of the breakout from the inside-day is a continuation of the direction prior to the inside-day. 


Inside Day Buy Set-Up Rules:
  1. Only enter in the direction of the trend  against the last pivot reversal.
  2. Enter a buy position, as long as the low of the day prior to the inside-day has not been exceeded, or, on the day following the inside-day, buy at one tick above the high of the day prior to the inside-day.
  3. Place the initial protective sell stop one tick below the lower of the low of the inside-day or the low of the entry day.

Outside Day Trade Entry Set-Up
An outside-day is a period of range expansion. A market usually continues in the direction of the close of an outside-day. The outside-day entry setup requires the market to be monitored during the day.
 

Outside Day Buy Set-Up Rules:
  1. Only enter in the direction of the trend.
  2. For a buy set-up, if the market first exceeds the low of the prior day without having exceeded the high of the prior day, buy one tick above the high of the prior day.
  3. Place the initial protective sell-stop one tick below the low of the entry day up to the time the trade is entered.
  4. Exit the position on the close if the close is below the current day's open and prior day's close. The failure of the close to be in the anticipated trend direction is a negative signal and reason to exit the trade.

Pull Back Trade Entry Set-Up
The Pull-Back entry strategy is based on the observation that minor corrections in trending markets usually only last some three days. The Pull-Back trade set-up enters a trade on minor corrections against the main trend.
 
 
Pull Back Buy Set-Up Rules:
  1. Only enter in the direction of the trend.
  2. For a sell set-up, the three most recent days must each have higher highs or any combination of two higher highs and an inside-day. Just the opposite for a buy set-up.
  3. For a sell set-up, place a sell-stop one tick below the low of the prior day once the set-up conditions are met.
  4. If the market makes a new high, adjust the sell-stop one tick below the low of the prior day.
  5. Place the initial protective buy-stop one tick above the higher of the high of entry day or the day prior to entry.
  6. Exit the position on the close of the entry day if the close is above the current day's open and the prior day's close.
Keep in mind, no single strategy is bulletproof, stop-loss strategies must be in place and the profit/loss ratio 1.5 or more. Trading is about probabilities and losses part of the trading-business.