Bitcoin April 2024 Halving - Target 150K+ by October 2025 | Peter L. Brandt

Bitcoin halvings are strongly associated with past bull market trends in Bitcoin. Also, a strong correlation exists between the halvings and the timing of the associated bull trends. More precisely, in the past the halvings have been right at the half-way point of major bull cycles. In other words, the lengths of bull trends following the halving dates have been about equal to the length of the bull trends prior to the halving dates [...]

 

The 2022 to 2025 Bull Cycle

We know what HAS BEEN in previous bull cycles. We have confidence in what we already know. But projecting past price behavior into the future is highly speculative. The next halving is April 22, 2024. Assuming that the low of the current bull cycle was in late November 2022. That low was 75 weekly bars before the April 2024 halving.
 

If the bull trend extends 75 weekly bars beyond the next halving, a price high would occur in early October 2025. If the pace of the bull trend after April 2024 is at similar pace to the bull trend since the November 2022 low, then the high in October 2025 could be around $150,000. 

 

However, the post-halving advances during previous bull cycles have been much steeper than the pre-halving advances.

 

 

 

Quoted from:
Peter L. Brandt (Feb 14, 2024) - The precocity of bull markets in Bitcoin as associated with halvings.

 

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Feb 28, 2024) @ Twitter/X

 

 Bitcoin Fear And Greed Index (Mar 10, 2024)

Gold Breakout - Target 2,530 to 2,700 | Peter L. Brandt

This is a FOR REAL breakout in Gold. Goldfinger points to a target range of 2,530 to 2,700.

 

Peter L. Brandt @ Twitter/X (Mar 06, 2024)

 

June is typically the lowest month for Gold. 

The graph is based on the average prices; there are times when June tops rather than bottoms. 

Buy dips around monthly pivot levels. 

Friday’s Commitment of Traders (COT) Report from the CFTC had an interesting point about gold. The big money "commercial" traders responded to the rally in gold this week by posting the biggest jump in years in their collective net short position. This marks this week’s pop as at least a short term price top.

There has also been a big jump in total open interest lately. Usually such events mark a blowoff top in gold prices, although occasionally they are seen at a breakout point.

 Curiously, though, the small speculators in the "non-reportable" category were not chasing this week’s rally, and instead they reduced their net long position. They have not been net short as a group since 2016, so the analysis task consists in evaluating their relative net long position as a group. Having the small specs feel scared by this rally says it has some enduring legitimacy, once the short term overbought condition can get worked off. 

Tom McClellan @ Twitter/X (Mar 09, 2024)

ICT Seasonality | Michael J. Huddleston

 

 

We are in the quiet part of the year still.
Spring is coming to the markets very soon.

The year, if viewed as a single range ... we are in the Accumulation phase still.
Don't blow your equity before the salad days return.

January to April is the yearly Accumulation.
April to May is the Manipulation.
May to November is the Distribution.
December resets the yearly range.

Power of 3

Now go lose sleep over it in your charts.

You won't appreciate this until you pour
over all markets and asset classes and then your ass will hit the floor.
 

 Michael J. Huddleston

 

 

Time is more important than Price.

 

 

Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution

 

 

There are two sets of instructions that the algorithm follows:  

AMD-X and X-AMD

 

A = Accumulation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation
D = Distribution
X = Reversal or Continuation