2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities | Larry Williams

Professional bears and purveyors of pessimism often emerge at this time of year with gloom-and-doom narratives. While there are indeed periods to adopt a bearish stance, currently such warnings should be approached with caution. 

  

The standout stock of 2025 has been Nvidia. My forecast for the first few months of 2026 suggests a decline into mid-February, followed by a strong rally into April. On a longer-term basis, indicated by the blue line representing the extended cycle, Nvidia has historically rallied approximately 75% of the time during similar periods. This pattern is expected from mid-February into May, presenting a favorable opportunity for Nvidia investors.

 

Edgar Lawrence Smith's research in the 1930s profoundly influenced Warren Buffett. Smith demonstrated that stocks outperform bonds over long periods, particularly through compounding via retained earnings in growing companies. Buffett emphasized firms with disciplined reinvestment of profits. Smith also identified a dominant 3.5-year cycle in stock prices. Out-of-sample testing from 1930 onward reveals cycle lows that marked excellent buying opportunities in 1995, 1998, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2019, and 2023. This cycle points to another potential buying opportunity in 2026. 

 

Historical data on years ending in "6," dating back to 1806, show that 85% closed higher, with only four instances of declines. Additionally, after three consecutive up years, the fourth year has been positive eight out of eleven times. These patterns suggest high odds for continued upward momentum, provided supportive fundamentals persist.

 

The M2 money supply exhibits a cycle of approximately six to seven years. Lows in this cycle have historically aligned with bull market advances, as seen from 1960 onward. The next upswing is projected for 2026, introducing a bullish bias, though not guaranteeing a straight-line rally. 

In summary, 2026 is likely to feature higher stock prices, declining interest rates, and rising inflation. In Q3 I expect an historic buy point for US stocks. For detailed forecasts, visit iReallyTrade.com starting January 1.

Reference:
Larry Williams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities. (video)
Larry Williams (January 1, 2026) - Forecast 2026.

 

 

 

 

Analyses of the S&P 500—integrating decennial, presidential, and seasonal cycles—project an annual return of up to 12% for 2026.

 

■ Strong rally in Q1, peaking around late February to mid April.
■ Pullback in April, followed by increased choppiness through June to August.
■ Weakness in late summer-early fall, and significant trough in October.
■ Robust year-end recovery from the October low.

Beginning in July 2026, the S&P 500 enters its strongest 24-month window of the four-year presidential cycle. Since 1942, every 24-month period starting in July of a midterm year has posted positive returns—a perfect 21-for-21 streak—with an average S&P 500 gain of 36.5%.

See also:

David Hickson (December 15, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Market Update and Outlook into Early 2026. 

TPR (December 18, 2025) - Upcoming 40-Day Hurst Cycle Troughs: SPX, NDX, Crude Oil, Gold, Bitcoin.

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.
Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

Wayne Whaley ( August 2, 2025) - 17-0 Turn-of-Year S&P 500 Setup with 7.1% Average Gain.

2026 High in the Benner Cycle | "Time to Sell Stocks and Values of all Kinds"

Samuel Benner (1832–1913), a once-prosperous farmer in Lawrence County, Ohio, whose wealth was destroyed by a devastating hog cholera epidemic and the Panic of 1873, devoted the remainder of his life to identifying recurring patterns in economic booms and busts. Through exhaustive analysis of commodity prices—specifically provisions (pork products such as bacon, ham, mess pork, lard, and salted pork), live hogs, corn, cotton, and pig iron (later also wheat and railroad-stocks)—he published "Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices" in 1876, a work that formed the basis for his annual forecasts through 1907.

  

 » Periods When to Make Money. « The original 1872 business card of the George Tritch Hardware Co. in Denver, Colorado—which was copyrighted in 1883 and 1897—is the focus of an ongoing controversy: Was it genuinely created by Tritch, or was it simply plagiarized and popularized by Benner four years later in 1876?

 
Benner’s approach was empirical, grounded in price data from 1780 to 1872, and used to extend projections far into the future by emphasizing recurring cycles in commodity prices and business activity. He treated these cycles not merely as descriptive patterns but as prescriptive guidance, advising investors on when to buy during "hard times" and when to sell during "good times."

 

Benner's time-price model identified nested peaks and troughs in commodity prices, agricultural yields, and broader economic conditions. Central to his framework were the following patterns:

■ 27-Year Cycle in Pig Iron and Cotton Prices: Analyzing data from 1833 to 1899, Benner observed high prices following an ascending arithmetic progression of 8, 9, and 10 years, repeating every 27 years. Low prices, conversely, followed a descending series of 9 and 7 years. This cycle captured the volatility in industrial commodities like pig iron, which Benner viewed as a bellwether for economic health, given iron's role in manufacturing and infrastructure.
■ 11-Year Cycle in Corn and Hog Prices: Beginning in 1836, this cycle alternated between 5- and 6-year sub-periods, reflecting fluctuations in agricultural staples. Benner broke it into peaks and troughs that aligned with seasonal and weather-related disruptions.
■ Business Cycle with 16-18-20 Year Peaks: Extending his commodity analysis, Benner described a broader 11-year business rhythm, characterized by peaks spaced 16, 18, and 20 years apart. Lows coincided with pig iron troughs, while panics occurred at intervals averaging 9 years (7-11-9 pattern, akin to the Juglar cycle). Every third peak aligned roughly every 54 years, echoing longer waves like those later formalized by Nikolai Kondratieff.

 Benner's astronomical time-price cycles theory.

These cycles formed a hierarchical structure: shorter oscillations (5–11 years) drove immediate price swings, while longer ones (27 and 54 years) shaped multi-decade eras of prosperity or contraction. Benner integrated them into a single chart, forecasting "ups and downs" with directives such as "Years of Good Times: High Prices and the Time to Sell" for peaks and "Years of Hard Times: Low Prices and a Good Time to Buy" for troughs.

 

 

 » "B." [2026] Years of Good Times. High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds. « 

For 2025, Benner’s cycle predicted the US stock market driving higher; for 2026, it forecasts a major top: "High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds" into 2032 ("Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a Good Time to Buy Stocks"). 2026 is marked as a "B" phase year — a peak of high prices and euphoria, often the culmination of a bull market before a shift to downturns. Historical "B" peaks have aligned (often within 1-2 years) with major tops like: 1929 (Great Depression peak), 2000 (dot-com bubble), 2007 (pre-2008 crisis), and others. 

Benner attributed these periodicities to celestial mechanics, positing that solar system dynamics influenced earthly economies. He aligned his 11-year cycle with Jupiter's major equinox, which recurs every 11.86 years—a near-match to observed corn, hog, and business fluctuations from 1836, 1847, 1858, and 1869. Jupiter, in his view, served as the "ruling element" in natural product price cycles, potentially modulated by electromagnetic influences from Uranus and Neptune on Saturn and, in turn, Earth.

This astro-economic perspective echoed earlier hints by English economist William Stanley Jevons, who suggested in 1843 planetary configurations might underpin business cycles but abandoned the idea amid academic opposition. Modern interpretations extend this to lunar phases and solar activity (e.g., nodal precession, sunspot cycles), though Benner's original emphasis remained on observable price data rather than strict astronomy and astrology.

   

Benner's Cycle Forecast for the Period 2015–2035.

In 1948, Edward R. Dewey, director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, updated and reprinted Benner’s work as the Foundation’s "Reprint No. 24". He lauded Benner’s pig-iron forecasts over the 60-year period from 1875 to 1935 for achieving a gain-to-loss ratio of 45:1, deeming it one of the most reliable business charts despite numerous imitations by lesser-known authors. Proponents cite alignments with major events: the cycle's "B" peaks (high-price euphoria phases) approximated the 1929 stock market top preceding the Great Depression, the 2000 dot-com bust, and the 2007 pre-financial crisis summit—often within 1–2 years. 

 

Edward R. Dewey (1967) considered the true length of Benner’s pig iron price cycle to be 9.2 years and thus his "forecast got off the track by one year every five waves. By 1939 his projection was no longer usable."  In 1971 Dewey commented: "Were Benner still alive and issuing yearly supplements to his Prophecies, he probably would have learned all that was necessary to know about cycles of fractional length and would have adjusted later forecasts accordingly." 

However, scrutiny reveals nuances: Benner's original chart, rooted in agriculture (which comprised 53% of the US economy in the 1870s), projected a 1927 high and 1930 low, not the exact 1929–1932 Depression timeline. A sensational 1933 Wall Street Journal article, designed to attract attention, altered Benner’s original cycle dates for dramatic effect, thereby fueling persistent misconceptions (see chart below).

 

 

Martin Armstrong recently contended that Benner’s cycle was more a historical curiosity than a reliable predictive tool, noting that it has been both right and wrong many times: 

 

The claim that Benner’s Cycle predicted the Great Depression is false. The chart [above] that was published in the Wall Street Journal altered Samuel Benner’s cycle, which was based on agriculture. It predicted a high in 1927, not 1929, and the low in 1930, not 1932. Claims that Benner’s work calls for a crash in 2025 are flat-out wrong. His target years would be 2019 and 2035, based on his data, not the altered, fake news published by the Wall Street Journal in 1933.

 

Benner was a farmer. Applying his cycle to the economy today is no longer effective, any more than the Kondratieff Wave. Both were based on the economy, with agriculture being the #1 sector. As the Industrial Revolution unfolded, those cycles remain relevant for commodities, but not the economy. Agriculture, when Benner developed his model, accounted for 53% of the economy. Today it is 3%. If they were alive today, they would have used the services industry. Capital flows are still pointing to the dollar, given the prospect of war and sovereign defaults outside the USA.

Martin Armstrong, August 30, 2025.

 

See also: 

Samuel Benner (1876)  - Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices. 

What years to make money on pig-iron, hogs, corn, and provisions.  

Samuel Benner (1907)  - Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices. 

Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin (1947) - Cycles: The Science of Prediction.

Edward R. Dewey (1967)  - The Case for Cycles.
Edward R. Dewey and Og Mandino (1971) - Cycles: The Mysterious Forces that Trigger Events.

LCdr. David Williams (1982) - Financial Astrology.  

TPR (2022) - "Periods When to Make Money": Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low.

US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025 | Larry Williams

Current market cycles suggest near-term weakness across the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones. The same pattern that accurately forecasted last April’s rally now points to a pullback. 

 

» Expect weakness in Bitcoin, gold, and stocks in the near term. Not a bear market yet, 

but caution is warranted. Cycles and fundamentals together suggest a pullback is ahead. «

 

The 255-day S&P cycle, which has consistently identified past buy and sell points, indicates we are in a weak phase lasting into spring 2026, with the next major buying opportunity around the turn of the year.

 

 » The S&P has a 255-day cycle. Historically, it has nailed buy and sell points 

remarkably well. Right now, we are in the weak part of that cycle. «

This weakness is not expected to trigger a crash, but rather a corrective phase after a strong run, followed by a probable year-end rally. The 2025 forecast of a bullish trend and March buying opportunity proved accurate; the 2026 outlook projects early weakness, then a recovery.

Fundamentally, stocks are overvalued relative to bonds and gold, historically a precursor to declines. This reinforces caution, even without technical confirmation. 

 

» Yes, maybe some weakness—but nothing like 1929 or 1970. 

So, I wouldn’t jump to Dalio’s conclusions. «

Ray Dalio has warned of an 80-year cycle implying severe turmoil. However, analysis of past instances (1863, 1946) shows mostly sideways markets rather than major collapses. The cycle may suggest weakness but not systemic crisis.

In summary: expect a corrective phase in equities, with parallel declines in gold and Bitcoin, but no imminent bear market. Year-end rally potential remains, and cycles continue to provide reliable foresight.

Reference:
Larry Williams (September 24, 2025)  - Old Dogs, New Tricks: Bitcoin and Gold, and what's next for stocks. (video)

 17:19 - NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones  

20:33 - Stocks Overvalued and 80 Year Cycle?

 

The 13-Week Cycle in Stocks.
 

See also:

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

 Ray Dalio (April 7, 2025) - Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.

Ethereum Outlook – Technical Structure and Price Targets | Philip Hopf

After price had risen significantly in recent weeks, Ethereum reached new interim highs at USD 4,070 on August 8, but may now be approaching a medium-term correction. 

 

Ethereum (weekly bars): Major resistance zone around USD 4,107.

The stablecoin market volume stood at USD 250 billion on July 23 and is currently growing by roughly USD 5 billion per week. It has already reached approximately USD 280.8 billion. Over 50% of all stablecoins operate on the Ethereum blockchain – a factor seen as clearly positive for Ethereum. Capital flows show significant inflows into Ethereum ETFs in recent weeks. A notable divergence is visible between retail investors and large investors (institutions/whales):

ETH (black line) Number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 10k (blue line) sharply rising:

The whales are eating Ethereum alive.

 

■ Retail investors have been steadily reducing their Ethereum holdings for months, even during recent price gains.

■ Large investors, on the other hand, have been accumulating heavily. 

■ Number of addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH – currently worth around USD 40 million each – has risen sharply.

 

This is interpreted as a long-term bullish signal: “smart money” is buying while “dumb money” is selling.

 

Short-term price may reach USD 4,200–4,300, followed by a quick pullback.

 

From a technical perspective, there is a major resistance zone around USD 4,107 that has repeatedly triggered sharp corrections in the past. In the short term, price could reach this area or slightly exceed it (up to about USD 4,200–4,300). A breakout above this level might attract momentum traders, potentially followed by a quick pullback.

The expected correction could, depending on the exact high, amount to USD 1,000–1,300, bringing the price down to the USD 3,000 range or lower. This phase is viewed as a buying opportunity.

 

A correction down to around USD 3,000 should be followed by a medium-term
rise to USD 5,500–6,500 and long-term targets of USD 12,000–14,000.

In the medium term, after the correction, another upward move is anticipated, with targets between USD 5,500 and 6,500. In the long term price regions of USD 12,000–14,000 are considered possible. Exact timing cannot be derived from Elliott Wave analysis, as price movements and patterns can vary greatly in duration.

Reference:

Philip Hopf (August 8, 2025) - Ethereum: The Whales are Eating the Market Alive! (video)

 

ETH's 3-year cycle rises late 2025–mid-2027 as BTC’s 4-year cycle declines until early 2027, 

favoring ETH’s outperformance vs. BTC through ~2028.

Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle

The 40-week cycle, also known as the 9-Month Cycle, is a cornerstone of J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory, developed during the 1960s and 1970s to forecast financial market movements through harmonic cycles. Spanning approximately 272.8 days from trough to trough, it consists of two 20-week cycles (19.48 weeks or 136.4 days each). The 40-week cycle is additionally subdivided into four 10-week or 80-day cycles (68.2 days), eight 40-day cycles (34.1 days), sixteen 20-day cycles (17 days), thirty-two 10-day cycles (8.5 days), and sixty-four 5-day cycles (4.3 days), forming one nested structure essential for swing and position trading. 

This idealized 40-Week Cycle (purple) of 272.8 calendar days is divided into two 20-week cycles (teal), each
of which is further divided into two 10-week cycles (blue), highlighting the complete nested harmonic structure.

Note that the 40-week cycle is itself half of the 18-month cycle, which in turn is one-third of the 54-month cycle—half of a 9-year cycle—and so on. The 40-week cycle’s intermediate-term horizon captures significant market swings, making it ideal for timing entries at troughs and exits at peaks, especially when aligned with shorter cycles (10-week, 20-week) or longer cycles (18-month, 54-month). 

 

The nominal 40-Week Cycle as a part of greater Hurst cycles.

 

Current S&P 500 Hurst Cycles: Long-term, 18-year cycle upward, peaking 2028-2030, trough by 2036; 9-year cycle bullish, peaking 2026-2027, trough 2028-2030; 54-month sub-cycle upward, trough December 2026. Medium-term, 40-week cycle bullish; 20-week cycle downward, trough late August/early September 2025. Short-term, 80-day, 40-day, 20-day cycles downward, synchronous, with troughs August 18-20 (20-day), August 22-26 (40-day), end September (80-day). Considering over 300 years of US stock market data, major troughs occurred in 2008 (72-year), December 2019 (9-year), with 18-year trough expected ~2029. Longer-term 36-, 72-, 144-year cycles exert gradual influence; 144-year cycle, bottomed 1932, now declining, though markets may rise before full impact. 

 

54-month, 18-month, and 40-week cycles in the CAD/USD (weekly bars), 2020-2025.

 

Bitcoin (monthly bars): 18-month and 54-month cycle peaks and troughs, 2018-2027.

 

In bear markets, the cycle’s crest occurs early (second to third month, left translation), with a brief rise and prolonged decline; in bull markets, the crest shifts later (sixth to eighth month, right translation), leading to a longer advance. The strongest rallies typically occur in the first three months when cycles align upward, while the last three months are vulnerable to renewed declines. 

 

Why the turning points of individual long-term cycles typically diverge—often significantly—from the composite 
or summation cycle of the three to four most prominent cycles (red), and thus from actual market price extremes.

 Hurst's nominal model allows for significant variability in actual cycle lengths

(Hurst's Principle of Variation).

 

Hurst's Nominal Model  can be displayed as a series of sinusoids (x-axis) with different amplitudes (y-axis) that, when summed, create a composite model, represented by the thick black line in the following charts. J.M. Hurst's concept, termed "sigma-l," represents the sum of all cycles within a system, assuming an infinite series of cycles with increasing periods. This underlying trend, conceptualized as the sum of sinusoidal functions, is dynamic and never static. It may appear flat during sideways consolidations of shorter cycles, but this reflects the influence of a much larger cycle, relative to the cycle in focus, turning upward or downward.
 

40-Week Cycle without or neutral trend.

 

The above flat or neutral model of a 40-week cycle assumes a non-existent sigma-l, meaning its value is zero. In real markets, this is never true but may be approximated when a much longer cycle is turning upward or downward.

 40-Week Cycle with bullish trend.

 

The above bullish model of a 40-week cycle features a positive underlying trend that modulates the composite summation, causing already bullish FLD interactions to significantly exceed upside targets. Interactions previously expected to meet downside targets will now be undershot.

 40-Week Cycle with bearish trend.

 

The above negative model of a 40-week cycle features a bearish (negative) underlying trend that modulates the composite summation, causing already bearish FLD interactions to significantly exceed downside targets. Interactions previously expected to meet upside targets will now be undershot.

 

The addition of an underlying trend impacts the summary status 

of each interaction in the series, influencing decisions. 

The tabulation above summarizes each 20-day FLD interaction within the idealized 40-week period, based on the previously described neutral, bullish and bearish models. M-Sigma indicates the trade direction and strength of interactions when the underlying trend is assumed to be zero, representing a localized subset of the underlying trend.
 

Subsequent summary columns reflect the differences when the underlying trend is bullish or bearish, providing a truer representation of Sigma-L. This better aligns with real price action in financial markets.
 

When accounting for the underlying trend, the summary columns show that in a bullish scenario, trends previously labeled as "risk buy" become standard "buys," some "buys" escalate to "strong buys," and so forth. The underlying trend amplifies bullish signals and weakens bearish signals. Conversely, a bearish underlying trend has the opposite effect.

Example of an 18-month cycle projection for the current S&P 500 in the chart below: 

 

18-Month Cycle Projection for the S&P 500 based on Hurst's Nominal Model:

A 9-year cycle trough hit in December 2019, followed by the March 2020 pandemic 18-month cycle trough. The 54-month cycle trough of October 2022 is rising, set to peak in early 2026. The 9-year cycle, likely peaked in 2023, is declining, but slow movement maintains bullishness, possibly linked to an 18-year cycle trough. An 18-month cycle trough formed in early April 2025. 

 

The orange line is the 18-month cycle (17.93 months = 546.6 calendar days), the light green the 40-week cycle (9 months = 38.97 weeks = 272.8 days), dark green the 20-week component (4.5 months = 19.97 weeks = 136.4 days), light blue the 10-week cycle (= 68.2 days), dark blue the so called 40-day or 5-week cycle (= 34.1 days) and finally the so called 20-day cycle (17 days) is the purple sinusoid. The X axis represents the number of calendar days. 
 

In the S&P 500, April 7, 2025, was an 18-month cycle low, and the next 

40-week cycle troughs are estimated for early 2026 and late Q4 2026.

The wavelengths in the above S&p 500 projection are average values rather than exact measurement. The thick black composite line ignores the effects of both the trend and cycles shorter than 20 days or longer than 18 months. Assuming the US stock market operates with clockwork precision (which it does not, see Hurst's Principle of Variation), the dates for upcoming peaks and troughs were calculated from the 18-month cycle trough on April 7, 2025, and the aforementioned average cycle lengths. 

 

10 Years of the nominal 40-week cycles in the SPY—one of the most coherent longer term cycles in stock markets today,

is projected to peak on August 19, 2025, according to Sigma-I.net.

 

See also:

David F (2024) - Underlying Trend: Sigma-L. 

Christopher Grafton (2011)  - Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis. 

David Hickson (2025) - Sentinent Trader Software for Hurst Cycles Analysis. 

 Lars von Thienen (2025) - Cycle Tools - App Manual for Online Spectrum Cycle Analysis.

TPR (2025)  - J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory.

 Martin Armstrong (2008) - The 8.6 Month or 37.33 Week Internal Cycle.

 

Comparison of Hurst’s Cyclic Theory and Spectrum Cycle Analysis.

 

Lars von Thienen's online Spectrum Cycle Analysis tools.