Showing posts with label Cycles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cycles. Show all posts

Thursday, February 5, 2026

The Venus-Stats | Jack Gillen

The planet Venus has an eight-year cycle when the Earth and Venus align at the Sun Zodiac degree. [...] The eight-year cycle of Venus has an effect on the Dow Jones Industrial Averages falling in the 70-100 percent accuracy that I call the Venus-line. The Venus-line means having four or more consecutive weekly patterns, and if the pattern is RED we know the trend is up, and if the pattern is GREEN we know the trend is down.
 
 » Each trading week is marked by R for (RED) and G for (GREEN). The GREEN indicates that
the week should end on the down side, and RED indicates that it should end on the up side. «
Tables 4.5–4.7: The Venus Degree Line (2015–2026); Tables 4.9–4.11: The Venus Degree Line (2027–2038).
 
[...] In the above tables you have the Venus-line until the year 2050, and each trading week is marked by the R for (RED) and G for (GREEN). The GREEN indicates that the week should end on the down side, and RED indicates that it should end on the up side. This is taken from the five-days in the week and based on the degree of Venus. Meaning, how many of those days will be up and how many of those days will be down.
 
Quoted from:
Jack Gillen (2002) - Astro-Stats for the New York Stock Exchange. (No online copy found.) 
 
(13×224.701 days=2,921.1 days) nearly equal 8 Earth years (8×365.256 days=2,922.0 days).
 
For 2026, Gillen’s tables (4.5 through 4.7) present a mixed pattern, with approximately 60% of weeks marked RED (bullish) and 40% GREEN (bearish). This suggests a volatile but ultimately positive outlook for the DJIA, with the potential for net gains by year-end.
 
However, given that an 8-year cyclical Venus influence exists, trends in 2026 should be expected to at least roughly mirror those from eight-year offsets, such as 1994, 2002, 2010, or 2018. But does such a premise even hold water? Is it yet another single-cause approach lacking a convincing roadmap? Consult the chart below to find out.
 
DJIA daily closes 1994, 2002, 2010, 2018, and 2026 (normalized prices: Jan 1 = 100).
The gold line tracks 2018; the dashed purple line is the composite average; the thick black one is 2026.
  
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Thursday, January 29, 2026

2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin | Bill Sarubbi

US Stock Market Outlook and Q1 Correction
The equity markets appear to be nearing a significant peak, with a forecasted correction for the S&P 500 expected to intensify during the first week of February. Despite this initial volatility, the year-end target for the S&P remains 10% to 12% higher than current levels around 6,950. 
 
In November, the 15-month midterm election cycle will be the primary rally driver. 
 
2026 Composite Cycle for the S&P 500.

The year is expected to unfold in three phases: a weak first quarter, a sideways trading range through the spring and summer, and a powerful rally in the fourth quarter driven by the historically potent 15-month midterm election cycle.

Long-Term Cycles and Inflationary Pressures
Current economic conditions mirror the 54-year cycle last seen in 1972, characterized by persistent price inflation, social unrest, and rising interest rates. This environment of "excess liquidity" is evidenced by record-breaking prices for collectibles and comic books. Furthermore, the removal of the gold window in 1971 and subsequent monetary acts have removed traditional limits on currency monetization, explaining gold’s ascent toward the $5,000 mark.

Sector Rotation and Technology Moderation
A primary theme for 2026 is the transition of leadership away from the "Magnificent Seven" and toward undervalued sectors. While technology will remain relevant, leadership is shifting to names like Intel and Micron rather than the overextended market leaders. 
 

Capital is expected to flow into healthcare, base materials, and emerging markets, the latter of which are breaking a 15-year relative downtrend against US equities.

Bullish Outlook for Energy and Oil
Oil presents a compelling "witches' brew" of bullish indicators: strong technical support between $50 and $55, extreme bearish sentiment, and favorable seasonal cycles. 
 
 Monthly Crude Oil Cycle.

A rally is anticipated through June, with stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) showing classic technical breakout patterns. This sector stands to benefit most from the rotation of funds out of high-priced mega-cap tech.

Fixed Income, Gold, and Bitcoin
Fixed income remains unattractive, with the 10-year note facing strong seasonal headwinds in March. 
 
10-Year Notes monthly histogram.
 
Gold.

Gold has exceeded recent objectives but is entering a seasonally weak period through March, with a projected short-term top near February 20. 
 
 Bitcoin.

Conversely, Bitcoin continues to adhere closely to its cyclical data, suggesting a potential rally toward the $110,000 to $115,000 range by April.

 
See also: 
Bill Sarubbi (b. 1949), writing under the pen name Bill Meridian, is an American financial strategist, author, and software developer who pioneered the integration of mundane astrology into institutional investment. After earning both a BS in Banking and an MBA in Corporate Finance from New York University in 1972, he launched a dual career on Wall Street while beginning his formal astrological studies. Sarubbi transformed the field in 1983 by designing AstroAnalyst, the first software to apply computer processing to financial astrology. His technical innovations—including efficiency tests and composite cycles—remain foundational to modern platforms such as Timing Solution. Parallel to his financial pursuits, he spent seven years in New York City training as a bioenergetic therapist under Dr. John Pierrakos. From 1990 to 2004, Sarubbi was based in Abu Dhabi (UAE), where he served as a Technology Fund Manager and Strategist for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA). During his tenure at the sovereign wealth fund, he also sat on its Currency Hedging Committee. Throughout this period, he maintained his pen identity as "Bill Meridian," advising legendary trader Frankie Joe and authoring the mundane and stocks column for Dell Horoscope for 30 years. A certified expert in Uranian and Vibrational Astrology, Sarubbi has authored several definitive texts, including 'Planetary Stock Trading' and 'The Predictive Power of Eclipse Paths.' Since 2000, he has operated Cycles Research Investments from Vienna, Austria, providing market advisory and fund management services that blend rigorous economic cycle analysis with astrological forecasting.
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Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Unraveling the Hurst Cycles Harmony of the US Stock Market | David Hickson

A Hurst cycles analysis essentially functions as a fairly complex puzzle in which every cycle must fit precisely into place, primarily because the cycle troughs must be synchronized whenever possible. If we were to position Hurst’s classic 9-year nominal cycle trough in 2020, we would produce a rather unbalanced cyclical analysis. Consequently, the 2018 placement is, in my opinion, a much more appropriate position for this nine-year cycle trough. We have had very regular nine-year cycles beating from the trough in 1998, continuing through the 2009 trough to the 2018 trough. Following this progression, the next nine-year cycle trough is expected to occur in approximately 2027.

S&P 500 (monthly candles), 1997-2039: 9-year (red) and 54-month (orange) cycles.
 
The classic 9-year model, tracking a recent average 10.1-year wavelength, identifies major troughs in 2002, 2009, and 2018; it dismisses the deeper March 2020 low as Fundamental Interaction to preserve the model's harmonic ratios. Currently, this model places the market in the bearish third of three 18-month cycles following an October 2022 trough, forecasting a significant decline into a synchronized 9-year nest of lows by mid-2027.
 
S&P 500 (daily candles), November 2025 to September 2026: The orange dashed 
Composite Model Line (CML) is a summation of all underlying cycles of the 9-year model:
Current nominal 20-week cycle = 16.9 weeks; 80-day cycle = 57 days; 40-day cycle = 31 days; 20-day cycle = 15.4 days. 

Conversely, the 7-year model utilizes a 14-year/7-year rhythm visible in the 2002, 2009, 2016, and 2022 troughs. By phasing the October 2022 low as a major 14-year trough, this model explains recent persistent strength and suggests the market is in the first of three 18-month cycles, implying a more bullish structural backdrop. Despite these long-term differences, both models converge on a near-term projection: an early 2026 peak followed by a corrective move into an 18-month cycle trough around June or July 2026. 
 
S&P 500 (daily candles), April 2025 to September 2026: The orange dashed Composite 
Model Line (CML) is a summation of all underlying cycles of the 7-year model:
Current nominal 20-week cycle = 13.6 weeks; 80-day cycle = 56.5 days; 40-day cycle = 28 days; 20-day cycle = 13.8 days. 

S&P 500 (daily candles), December 2025 to February 2026, and orange dashed 7-year model CML.
 
 Nominal 9-Year Cycle vs Actual 7-Year Cycle.
 
Both models recognize a 40-week cycle trough on November 21, 2025, and the 80-day cycle trough on January 21. A peak is expected in late-Q1 early-Q2, to be followed by a significant mid-year correction into June-July.
 
 
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Monday, January 26, 2026

Silver Squeeze Blasts-Out Last Short Funds—Watch Grains | Oscar Carboni

I started in the silver pits as an 18-year-old kid back in 1982. For decades, Silver was stuck in a range between $7.50 and $21, even while other metals soared. While Gold moved from $265 to $4,000, and Copper and Palladium saw massive gains, Silver remained artificially suppressed.

» You must be careful not to "plow in" at these levels. «
Silver (daily chart).

For 40 years, major funds and big banks have held Silver down by selling it short and selling calls against it to collect premiums. They did this successfully for four decades until Silver finally got noticed by the broader public. What you are witnessing today is a massive, forced short squeeze. The funds that held short positions for 40 years finally got caught and are being forced to exit.
 
Caution in the Metals Sector
While the rally is exciting, you must be careful not to "plow in" at these levels. If you missed the initial move, you missed it. At $117, the volatility is extreme. Every $1 move in Silver represents a $5,000 gain or loss on a single lot. This looks like capitulation—the final "blow-off" top where the last remaining shorts are blasted out.

Gold (daily chart).
 
 Platinum (daily chart).
 
Copper (daily chart). 
 
Looking at the broader sector, Gold continues to trend within its reliable channels, and Platinum and Palladium are also moving higher. Copper had a fantastic rally today as well, moving at $250 per point.
 
The Next Opportunity: Grains
With Indices, Currencies, and Metals already having gone to the moon, I am looking for what is left. The answer is the Grain Market. Soybeans, Wheat, Corn, and Oats haven't moved yet. As spring planting approaches and other commodities become too expensive, watch for fund managers to rotate their capital into the grain sector.

 
Silver (XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale): Long-term Cup and Handle breakouts with 10x price targets, 1800-2025.
 
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Monday, January 12, 2026

Bitcoin: A Deep Dive into Hurst Cycles | David Hickson

Looking at the monthly chart for Bitcoin dating back to 2014 (chart 1), we observe the long-term cycle structure. The 54-month cycle (orange) contains three 18-month cycles (yellow), creating a 3:1 harmonic ratio. 

Chart 1: Bitcoin (monthly candles), 2014 to January 2026.

Our current analysis identifies 54-month cycle troughs in December 2018 and November 2022. We are now in the third 18-month cycle of this 54-month period, which is exerting downward pressure toward a major trough expected in early 2027 (chart 2).  
  
 Chart 2: Bitcoin (weekly candles), 2022 to January 2026.
  
Based on the Composite Model Line (dashed orange line on chart 2), we are assuming an 18-month trough has formed on November 21, 2025. The timing is nearly perfect, occurring 1,092 days—exactly two average 18-month cycles—after the November 2022 low (chart 4).
 
 Chart 3: Bitcoin (weekly candles), 2025 to January 2026.
 
 Chart 4: Bitcoin (daily candles), 2022 to January 2026.
 
However, the subsequent price action has been insufficiently bullish to confirm this bottom definitively (charts 4 and 5).  

Chart 5: Bitcoin (daily candles), November 2025 to January 2026.

The market currently faces a pivotal technical junction at the 20-week FLD. A successful cross above the FLD within the next fortnight would validate the November trough; conversely, resistance at the FLD line would indicate the 18-month low is delayed until February or March 2026 (chart 5). 
 
In the immediate term, Bitcoin is navigating an 80-day cycle trough expected this week, currently tracking a downside target of approximately $86,760 (chart 5). 
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Saturday, January 10, 2026

2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500 | Namzes

Following the November 21 (Fri) 40-week cycle low and the December 19 (Fri) 40-day cycle higher-low confirmation, the S&P 500 is now in a new 40-week cycle uptrend. Though the next 40-day cycle pullback is expected in late January, the rising 20-week cycle should drive the S&P 500 higher toward around the February 20 (Fri) option expiration.

Q1 rally, mid-year correction, July and October windows for yearly low, rally in Q4. 
 
Building on prior calls like the accurate November 2025 low, the chart above illustrates July 2026 as an ideal nested low for multiple cycles (20-week, 40-week, possibly 18-month and 3.5-year or 42-month).

 
 [ Note: A November 21, 2025, 40-week cycle low would render prior TPR Hurst cycle analyses
and longer-term phasing (e.g., HERE, HERE, and HERE) largely incorrect and obsolete. ]
 
  
» The 21 November low was the 40-week trough. « 
Christopher Grafton, January 9, 2026.

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Friday, January 9, 2026

2026 Gold Forecast | Namzes

Back in February 2024, our main call was to watch for Gold to break the 2,080–2,100 level, which would trigger a trend move; it has since moved up over 2x. Short-term moves are hard to call and cycles are not stable, so I focus on mini-trend moves where I can hold a position for several months. We are now approaching a potential multi-month peak, which will be followed by a sizable pullback.
 
 Updates to the 2025 Gold Forecast.

The main idea for 2026 is a peak in Q1 around February, followed by a 20%+ decline toward mid-summer in July and a subsequent resumption of the bull market. 
  
 Peak in February. 20%+ decline through July. Bull market resumption.
 
In the chart above the composite projection is shown in orange, with seasonality displayed in the middle. The 18-month cycle in the bottom panel is due for a low between April and August; while this long cycle has wide dispersion, the best guess is that an initial low occurs in April with the final low in July. 
 

 
 
I found the three most similar cycles and displayed them in the chart above with a composite line in pink. While this is a small sample size, it serves as a decent reference point.
 
Reference:

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Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Pythagorean Harmonics in Multi-Millennial Solar Activity | Theodor Landscheidt

One of the first interdisciplinary approaches to a holistic understanding of our world was that of Pythagoras and his disciples. They created the theory of the fundamental significance of numbers in the objective world and in music. This theory reduced all existence to number, meaning that all entities are ultimately reducible to numerical relationships that link not only mathematics to music but also to acoustics, geometry, and astronomy. Even the dependence of the dynamics of world structure on the interaction of pairs of opposites—of which the even–odd polarity essential to numbers is primary—emerges from these numerical relationships. Pythagoras would have been pleased to learn of attractors opposing in character, created by simple feedback loops of numbers, and forming tenuous boundaries—dynamic sites of instability and creativity.

Pythagoras exploring harmony and ratio with various musical

Pythagorean thinking deeply influenced the development of classical Greek philosophy and medieval European thought, especially the astrological belief that the planetary harmony of the universe affects everything, including terrestrial affairs, through space–time configurations of cosmic bodies. People were intrigued by the precision of numerical relationships between musical harmonies, which deeply touch the human soul, and the prosaic arithmetical ratios of integers. This connection was first demonstrated by Pythagoras himself in the sixth century B.C. In his famous experiment, a stretched string on a monochord was divided by simple arithmetical ratios—1:2, 2:3, 3:4, 4:5, and 5:6—and plucked. It was a Eureka moment when he discovered that these respective partitions of the string create the consonant intervals of harmony.
 
One tone is not yet music. One might say it is only a promise of music. The promise is fulfilled, and music comes into being, only when one tone follows another. Strictly speaking, therefore, the basic elements of music are not individual tones but the movements between tones. Each of these movements spans a certain pitch distance. The pitch distance between two tones is called an interval. It is the basic element of melody and of individual musical motion. Melody is a succession of intervals rather than of tones. Intervals can be consonant or dissonant.
 
[ Nodes of a vibrating string are harmonics. Conversely, antinodes
—points of maximum amplitude—occur midway between nodes. ]
 
It was Pythagoras’ great discovery to see that the ratios of the first small integers up to six give rise to consonant intervals; the smaller these integers, the more complete the resonance. A string divided in the ratio 1:2 yields the octave (C–C), an equisonance of the fundamental tone. The ratio 2:3 yields the fifth (C–G); 3:4 the fourth (C–F); 4:5 the major third (C–E); and 5:6 the minor third. These correspond to the consonant intervals of octave, fifth, fourth, major third, minor third, and the sixth. The pairs of notes given in brackets are examples of the respective consonances.
 
The minor sixth, created by the ratio 5:8, seems to go beyond the limit of six. Yet eight—the only integer greater than six involved here—is the third power of two and thus a member of the series of consonant numbers. Eight is created by an octave operation, which produces absolutely equisonant tones. All authorities agree that, besides the equisonant octave, there are no consonant intervals other than the third, the fourth, the fifth, and the sixth. If more than two notes are to be consonant, each pair of them must also be consonant.
 
As mentioned already, the most complete consonance within the range of an octave is the major perfect chord C–E–G (4:5:6), which unites the major third and the fifth with the fundamental note. These concepts of harmony and consonant intervals are formed by the first terms in the series of overtones, or harmonics, produced by a vibrating string. [...] Whenever there is a musical sound, there is an addition of harmonics that relate the fundamental tone to an infinity of overtones, which influence the quality of the consonant fundamental. The overtones up to the sixth harmonic represent the consonant intervals: the octave, the fifth, the fourth, the major third, the minor third, and the sixth.

Figure 19: Smoothed time series of consecutive impulses of the torque (IOT), with epochs indicated by dots. The resulting wave pattern corresponds to the secular cycle of sunspot activity. The average wavelength is 166 years, with each extremum occurring at mean intervals of 83 years, aligned with a maximum in the secular sunspot cycle. These maxima, as identified by Wolfgang Gleissberg, are marked by bold arrows. Minima occur when the wave approaches zero. This wave pattern reflects the influence of solar system configurations that generate impulses of the torque.

Figure 34 shows the combination of the consonant intervals known as the major sixth (3:5) and the minor sixth (5:8) as they emerge in solar-system processes over thousands of years. These intervals are marked by vertical triangles and large numbers. The curve depicts the supersecular variation of energy in the secular torque wave, part of which was shown in points along the curve represent epochs of extrema, labeled by Aₛ numbers from −64 to +28, corresponding to the period from 5259 BC to AD 2347. The mean cycle length is 391 years. Black triangles indicate maxima in the corresponding supersecular sunspot cycle, while open triangles indicate minima. When the energy exceeds certain quantitative thresholds, shown by hatched horizontal lines, a phase jump occurs in the correlated supersecular sunspot cycle. These critical phases are marked by vertical dotted lines. A new phase jump is expected around 2030.
It points toward a supersecular minimum comparable to the Egyptian minimum (E) around 1369 BC, a prolonged period marked by notable cooling and glacier advance. The ratio 3:5:8, representing the major and minor sixth, marks the intervals that separate these rare phase jumps indicated by the vertical dotted lines. The 317.7-year period of the triple conjunction of Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus is also involved in this relationship, as shown by the small numbers beneath the large numbers at the top of the figure.
[...] Another confirmation of the hypothesis that consonant intervals play an important role with respect to the Sun's eruptional activity are the connections presented in Figure 34 that cover thousands of years. It has been shown in Figure 19 that consecutive impulses of the torque (IOT) in the Sun’s motion about the center of mass (CM) of the solar system, when taken to constitute a smoothed time series, form a wave-pattern the positive and negative extrema (±As​) of which coincide with maxima in the secular sunspot cycle. This Gleissberg cycle, with a mean period of 83 years, which modulates the intensity of the 11-year sunspot cycle, is in turn modulated by a supersecular sunspot cycle with a mean period of about 400 years. The Maunder Minimum of sunspot activity in the 17th century and a supersecular maximum in the 12th century are features of this supersecular cycle. It seems to be related to the energy in the secular wave presented in Figure 19.

This energy may be measured by squared values of the secular extrema ±As​. When these values are taken to form another smoothed time series, a supersecular wave emerges as plotted in Figure 34. It runs parallel with the supersecular sunspot cycle. Its mean period is 391 years, but it varies from 166 to 665 years. Each dot in the plot indicates the epoch of a secular extremum (±As​). These epochs are numbered from -64 to +28 and range from 5259 B.C. to 2347 A.D. Black triangles indicate maxima in the correlated supersecular sunspot curve and white triangles minima. The medieval maximum, which was together a climate optimum (O), the Spoerer Minimum (S), and the Maunder Minimum (M) are marked by respective abbreviations. The extrema in the supersecular wave properly reflect all marked peaks and troughs in the supersecular sunspot curve derived from radiocarbon data.
 
 
Angular Momentum and Past/Future Solar Activity, 1600-2200: JUP-NEP resonance of 22.13y mirrors Sun’s 22y magnetic cycle. JUP-NEP squares to solar equator align with 11y solar minima; sub-harmonics like JUP-URA-NEP at 11.09y track sunspot fluctuations. Centuries of data show minimal drift (0.6 ±1.5y), suggesting planetary periods act as solar activity pacemakers. 
  
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Thursday, December 18, 2025

Upcoming 40-Day Hurst Cycle Troughs: SPX, NDX, Crude Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

S&P 500 (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough ideally due December 23 (Tue)(± 5.49 CD). 
While the 20-week, 40-week, and 18-month cycles all remain in decline, a choppy counter-trend Santa Claus rally of uncertain
magnitude is expected into year-end early-January 2026 (see 'Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle' below). 
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026. 
[Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of
each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts.] 
 
 Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle.
 

DJIA / CPI (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1940-2025).
 
 NASDAQ (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).
 
 NASDAQ (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 23 (Tue). 
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026.  
 
 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).
 
 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Current 18-Month Cycle (October 2024-December 2025).
 
Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 19-21 (Fri-Sun). One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month
cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around February 17 (Tue), 2026.  
 
 Gold (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1995-2025).
 
 Gold (daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 28 (Sun) and January 5 (Mon), 2026. 
One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycle troughs 
are currently projected to around late February-mid March 2026. 
 
 Bitcoin (daily bars, log-scale): Long-Term Cycles (2010-2025).
 
 Bitcoin (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 20 (Sat).
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 19 (Mon), 2026. 

[Cycle Analysis as of December 18, 2025 | 11:00 a.m. EST] 
 
See also:
  
Principles of Commonality and Variation.
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