Showing posts with label Cycles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cycles. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Pythagorean Harmonics in Multi-Millennial Solar Activity | Theodor Landscheidt

One of the first interdisciplinary approaches to a holistic understanding of our world was that of Pythagoras and his disciples. They created the theory of the fundamental significance of numbers in the objective world and in music. This theory reduced all existence to number, meaning that all entities are ultimately reducible to numerical relationships that link not only mathematics to music but also to acoustics, geometry, and astronomy. Even the dependence of the dynamics of world structure on the interaction of pairs of opposites—of which the even–odd polarity essential to numbers is primary—emerges from these numerical relationships. Pythagoras would have been pleased to learn of attractors opposing in character, created by simple feedback loops of numbers, and forming tenuous boundaries—dynamic sites of instability and creativity.

Pythagoras exploring harmony and ratio with various musical

Pythagorean thinking deeply influenced the development of classical Greek philosophy and medieval European thought, especially the astrological belief that the planetary harmony of the universe affects everything, including terrestrial affairs, through space–time configurations of cosmic bodies. People were intrigued by the precision of numerical relationships between musical harmonies, which deeply touch the human soul, and the prosaic arithmetical ratios of integers. This connection was first demonstrated by Pythagoras himself in the sixth century B.C. In his famous experiment, a stretched string on a monochord was divided by simple arithmetical ratios—1:2, 2:3, 3:4, 4:5, and 5:6—and plucked. It was a Eureka moment when he discovered that these respective partitions of the string create the consonant intervals of harmony.
 
One tone is not yet music. One might say it is only a promise of music. The promise is fulfilled, and music comes into being, only when one tone follows another. Strictly speaking, therefore, the basic elements of music are not individual tones but the movements between tones. Each of these movements spans a certain pitch distance. The pitch distance between two tones is called an interval. It is the basic element of melody and of individual musical motion. Melody is a succession of intervals rather than of tones. Intervals can be consonant or dissonant.
 
[ Nodes of a vibrating string are harmonics. Conversely, antinodes
—points of maximum amplitude—occur midway between nodes. ]
 
It was Pythagoras’ great discovery to see that the ratios of the first small integers up to six give rise to consonant intervals; the smaller these integers, the more complete the resonance. A string divided in the ratio 1:2 yields the octave (C–C), an equisonance of the fundamental tone. The ratio 2:3 yields the fifth (C–G); 3:4 the fourth (C–F); 4:5 the major third (C–E); and 5:6 the minor third. These correspond to the consonant intervals of octave, fifth, fourth, major third, minor third, and the sixth. The pairs of notes given in brackets are examples of the respective consonances.
 
The minor sixth, created by the ratio 5:8, seems to go beyond the limit of six. Yet eight—the only integer greater than six involved here—is the third power of two and thus a member of the series of consonant numbers. Eight is created by an octave operation, which produces absolutely equisonant tones. All authorities agree that, besides the equisonant octave, there are no consonant intervals other than the third, the fourth, the fifth, and the sixth. If more than two notes are to be consonant, each pair of them must also be consonant.
 
As mentioned already, the most complete consonance within the range of an octave is the major perfect chord C–E–G (4:5:6), which unites the major third and the fifth with the fundamental note. These concepts of harmony and consonant intervals are formed by the first terms in the series of overtones, or harmonics, produced by a vibrating string. [...] Whenever there is a musical sound, there is an addition of harmonics that relate the fundamental tone to an infinity of overtones, which influence the quality of the consonant fundamental. The overtones up to the sixth harmonic represent the consonant intervals: the octave, the fifth, the fourth, the major third, the minor third, and the sixth.

Figure 19
: Smoothed time series of consecutive impulses of the torque (IOT), with epochs indicated by dots. The resulting wave pattern corresponds to the secular cycle of sunspot activity. The average wavelength is 166 years, with each extremum occurring at mean intervals of 83 years, aligned with a maximum in the secular sunspot cycle. These maxima, as identified by Wolfgang Gleissberg, are marked by bold arrows. Minima occur when the wave approaches zero. This wave pattern reflects the influence of solar system configurations that generate impulses of the torque.

Figure 34
shows the combination of the consonant intervals known as the major sixth (3:5) and the minor sixth (5:8) as they emerge in solar-system processes over thousands of years. These intervals are marked by vertical triangles and large numbers. The curve depicts the supersecular variation of energy in the secular torque wave, part of which was shown in points along the curve represent epochs of extrema, labeled by Aₛ numbers from −64 to +28, corresponding to the period from 5259 BC to AD 2347. The mean cycle length is 391 years. Black triangles indicate maxima in the corresponding supersecular sunspot cycle, while open triangles indicate minima. When the energy exceeds certain quantitative thresholds, shown by hatched horizontal lines, a phase jump occurs in the correlated supersecular sunspot cycle. These critical phases are marked by vertical dotted lines. A new phase jump is expected around 2030.
It points toward a supersecular minimum comparable to the Egyptian minimum (E) around 1369 BC, a prolonged period marked by notable cooling and glacier advance. The ratio 3:5:8, representing the major and minor sixth, marks the intervals that separate these rare phase jumps indicated by the vertical dotted lines. The 317.7-year period of the triple conjunction of Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus is also involved in this relationship, as shown by the small numbers beneath the large numbers at the top of the figure.
[...] Another confirmation of the hypothesis that consonant intervals play an important role with respect to the Sun's eruptional activity are the connections presented in Figure 34 that cover thousands of years. It has been shown in Figure 19 that consecutive impulses of the torque (IOT) in the Sun’s motion about the center of mass (CM) of the solar system, when taken to constitute a smoothed time series, form a wave-pattern the positive and negative extrema (±As​) of which coincide with maxima in the secular sunspot cycle. This Gleissberg cycle, with a mean period of 83 years, which modulates the intensity of the 11-year sunspot cycle, is in turn modulated by a supersecular sunspot cycle with a mean period of about 400 years. The Maunder Minimum of sunspot activity in the 17th century and a supersecular maximum in the 12th century are features of this supersecular cycle. It seems to be related to the energy in the secular wave presented in Figure 19.

This energy may be measured by squared values of the secular extrema ±As​. When these values are taken to form another smoothed time series, a supersecular wave emerges as plotted in Figure 34. It runs parallel with the supersecular sunspot cycle. Its mean period is 391 years, but it varies from 166 to 665 years. Each dot in the plot indicates the epoch of a secular extremum (±As​). These epochs are numbered from -64 to +28 and range from 5259 B.C. to 2347 A.D. Black triangles indicate maxima in the correlated supersecular sunspot curve and white triangles minima. The medieval maximum, which was together a climate optimum (O), the Spoerer Minimum (S), and the Maunder Minimum (M) are marked by respective abbreviations. The extrema in the supersecular wave properly reflect all marked peaks and troughs in the supersecular sunspot curve derived from radiocarbon data.
 
 
Angular Momentum and Past/Future Solar Activity, 1600-2200: JUP-NEP resonance of 22.13y mirrors Sun’s 22y magnetic cycle. JUP-NEP squares to solar equator align with 11y solar minima; sub-harmonics like JUP-URA-NEP at 11.09y track sunspot fluctuations. Centuries of data show minimal drift (0.6 ±1.5y), suggesting planetary periods act as solar activity pacemakers. 
 
 
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Thursday, December 18, 2025

Upcoming 40-Day Hurst Cycle Troughs: SPX, NDX, Crude Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

S&P 500
(daily bars): 40-day cycle trough ideally due December 23 (Tue)(± 5.49 CD)
While the 20-week, 40-week, and 18-month cycles all remain in decline, a choppy counter-trend Santa Claus rally of uncertain
magnitude is expected into year-end early-January 2026 (see 'Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle' below). 
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026. 
[Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of
each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts.] 
 
 
 NASDAQ (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).
 
 NASDAQ (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 23 (Tue). 
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026 
 
 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).
 
 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Current 18-Month Cycle (October 2024-December 2025).
 
Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 19-21 (Fri-Sun). One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month
cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around February 17 (Tue), 2026.  
 
 Gold (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1995-2025).
 
 Gold (daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 28 (Sun) and January 5 (Mon), 2026. 
One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycle troughs 
are currently projected to around late February-mid March 2026. 
 
 Bitcoin (daily bars, log-scale): Long-Term Cycles (2010-2025).
 
 Bitcoin (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 20 (Sat).
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 19 (Mon), 2026. 

[Cycle Analysis as of December 18, 2025 | 11:00 a.m. EST] 
 
  

Monday, December 15, 2025

Hurst Cycles Market Update and Outlook into Early 2026 | David Hickson

This is our final market update for the year, reviewing our usual set of instruments (SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, Gold, BTCUSD) and outlining what to expect as we move into 2026.
 
S&P 500: The S&P 500 is advancing out of a November 21 trough that is definitively an 80-day cycle low and remains a viable candidate for a completed 40-week cycle trough. This advance is occurring within the larger context of an April 2025 trough phased as at least an 18-month cycle low, which continues to dominate the intermediate trend. Price behavior has been consistently bullish: clean crossings above the 20-day FLD, achievement of FLD targets, and successful defense of the 20-day FLD during the most recent 20-day trough (Dec 10). No bearish structural behavior has emerged to invalidate the 40-week trough interpretation.
 
S&P 500: The S&P 500 is advancing out of a November 21 trough that is definitively an 80-day cycle low and remains a viable candidate for a completed 40-week cycle trough. This advance is occurring within the larger context of an April 2025 trough phased as at least an 18-month cycle low, which continues to dominate the intermediate trend. Price behavior has been consistently bullish: clean crossings above the 20-day FLD, achievement of FLD targets, and successful defense of the 20-day FLD during the most recent 20-day trough (Dec 10). No bearish structural behavior has emerged to invalidate the 40-week trough interpretation.    Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 40-week, and higher-order cycles of each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts.  A 40-day cycle trough is expected into late December (± Dec 26-29), likely producing a shallow pullback. This should be followed by another advance before a larger corrective phase into an 80-day or 40-week trough in late January or early February (± Jan 30-Feb 6). Unless bearish confirmation appears, that trough is expected to be corrective rather than trend-ending, with the larger structure remaining bullish.
 Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of
each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts. 
 
A 40-day cycle trough is expected into late December (± Dec 26-29), likely producing a shallow pullback. This should be followed by another advance before a larger corrective phase into an 80-day or 40-week trough in late January or early February (± Jan 30-Feb 6). Unless bearish confirmation appears, that trough is expected to be corrective rather than trend-ending, with the larger structure remaining bullish.
 
NASDAQThe NASDAQ shares the same broad cycle architecture as the S&P 500, with a confirmed 80-day trough on November 21 and the unresolved question of whether the 40-week trough is already in place or still ahead. However, relative weakness is evident: price has struggled to remain above the 20-day FLD, and short-term momentum is softer. The orange dashed composite model line reflects this by projecting a deeper decline into the next larger trough compared with the S&P 500.
 
NASDAQ: The NASDAQ shares the same broad cycle architecture as the S&P 500, with a confirmed 80-day trough on November 21 and the unresolved question of whether the 40-week trough is already in place or still ahead. However, relative weakness is evident: price has struggled to remain above the 20-day FLD, and short-term momentum is softer. The orange dashed composite model line reflects this by projecting a deeper decline into the next larger trough compared with the S&P 500.    A 40-day trough is expected near year-end or early January, followed by a decline into an 80-day trough in late January or early February. If downside pressure increases meaningfully, that later trough may resolve as the 40-week cycle low. Synchronization with the S&P 500 remains the dominant expectation.

A 40-day trough is expected near year-end or early January, followed by a decline into an 80-day trough in late January or early February. If downside pressure increases meaningfully, that later trough may resolve as the 40-week cycle low. Synchronization with the S&P 500 remains the dominant expectation.
 
Australian ASX: The ASX also shows a November 21 trough that could be either an 80-day or a 40-week cycle low, but unlike U.S. indices, price action has failed to confirm bullish intent. The market crossed above the 20-day FLD but did not achieve its projected upside target, and subsequent price action has been weak. While the 20-day trough found approximate FLD support, the amplitude and momentum are noticeably inferior, introducing bearish risk.
 
Australian ASX: The ASX also shows a November 21 trough that could be either an 80-day or a 40-week cycle low, but unlike U.S. indices, price action has failed to confirm bullish intent. The market crossed above the 20-day FLD but did not achieve its projected upside target, and subsequent price action has been weak. While the 20-day trough found approximate FLD support, the amplitude and momentum are noticeably inferior, introducing bearish risk.    A 40-day trough is expected into late December, followed by a more important trough in late January or early February. Given current behavior, the probability is increasing that this later trough resolves as a 40-week cycle low. A decisive bearish turn in the ASX would materially strengthen the global commonality case for a synchronized 40-week trough.

A 40-day trough is expected into late December, followed by a more important trough in late January or early February. Given current behavior, the probability is increasing that this later trough resolves as a 40-week cycle low. A decisive bearish turn in the ASX would materially strengthen the global commonality case for a synchronized 40-week trough.
 
German DAXThe DAX cycle labeling is less precise, but price action provides important guidance. The November 21 low has been phased as a 40-day trough but sits close to the projected positions of the 20-week and 40-week cycles. Despite analytical ambiguity, price crossed above the 20-day FLD, achieved its target, and remains above short-term support—behavior more consistent with a market that has already completed a larger-degree trough.
 
German DAX: The DAX cycle labeling is less precise, but price action provides important guidance. The November 21 low has been phased as a 40-day trough but sits close to the projected positions of the 20-week and 40-week cycles. Despite analytical ambiguity, price crossed above the 20-day FLD, achieved its target, and remains above short-term support—behavior more consistent with a market that has already completed a larger-degree trough.    A pullback into a late-December 40-day trough is expected, with another due toward late January. Unless price begins to display clear bearish characteristics, the evidence favors the interpretation that the 40-week trough formed in November, implying that forthcoming declines should remain corrective.

A pullback into a late-December 40-day trough is expected, with another due toward late January. Unless price begins to display clear bearish characteristics, the evidence favors the interpretation that the 40-week trough formed in November, implying that forthcoming declines should remain corrective.
 
Indian NIFTY: The NIFTY exhibits one of the clearest cycle structures. A 20-week trough occurred in early August, followed by an 80-day trough in early November. Recent price action suggests a 40-day trough has just formed near the projected centers of both the 20-week and 40-week cycles, raising the possibility that the larger cycle trough has already occurred. The current advance is consistent with a market rebounding from a significant cycle low.
 
Indian NIFTY: The NIFTY exhibits one of the clearest cycle structures. A 20-week trough occurred in early August, followed by an 80-day trough in early November. Recent price action suggests a 40-day trough has just formed near the projected centers of both the 20-week and 40-week cycles, raising the possibility that the larger cycle trough has already occurred. The current advance is consistent with a market rebounding from a significant cycle low.    Price is expected to cross and hold above the 20-day FLD and achieve its upside target. If the 40-week trough is already in place, the coming weeks should remain upward-biased. Risk only increases if the advance fails and the cycle structure shifts into a bearish-shaped configuration toward year-end.

Price is expected to cross and hold above the 20-day FLD and achieve its upside target. If the 40-week trough is already in place, the coming weeks should remain upward-biased. Risk only increases if the advance fails and the cycle structure shifts into a bearish-shaped configuration toward year-end.
 
GoldGold is operating within a structurally bullish environment despite uncertainty surrounding a possible 54-month cycle peak in October. Price action since that peak has challenged its validity, suggesting either that the peak was misidentified or that longer-degree bullish cycles (9-year, 18-year) are overwhelming it. Trough behavior has been exemplary, with repeated successful interactions with the 20-day FLD, including support during the most recent 40-day trough.
 
Gold: Gold is operating within a structurally bullish environment despite uncertainty surrounding a possible 54-month cycle peak in October. Price action since that peak has challenged its validity, suggesting either that the peak was misidentified or that longer-degree bullish cycles (9-year, 18-year) are overwhelming it. Trough behavior has been exemplary, with repeated successful interactions with the 20-day FLD, including support during the most recent 40-day trough.    Gold is likely to retest or exceed the October highs before encountering its next significant corrective phase. The next major timing window is the 20-week cycle trough expected in the third week of January, which should be monitored closely for trend continuation or structural change.

Gold is likely to retest or exceed the October highs before encountering its next significant corrective phase. The next major timing window is the 20-week cycle trough expected in the third week of January, which should be monitored closely for trend continuation or structural change.
 
BitcoinBitcoin’s November 21 low is currently labeled as an 80-day trough, but it remains a candidate for a larger 18-month cycle trough. Unlike equities, Bitcoin has not displayed strong post-trough bullish expansion. Price has struggled to hold above the 20-day FLD, and recent action shows mild bearish leakage below it, keeping the larger trough question unresolved.
 
Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s November 21 low is currently labeled as an 80-day trough, but it remains a candidate for a larger 18-month cycle trough. Unlike equities, Bitcoin has not displayed strong post-trough bullish expansion. Price has struggled to hold above the 20-day FLD, and recent action shows mild bearish leakage below it, keeping the larger trough question unresolved.    Focus is now on the development of the next 40-day cycle trough. Continued weakness would increase the likelihood that the true 18-month trough still lies ahead. Until stronger bullish confirmation appears, Bitcoin should be treated as structurally uncertain rather than trend-confirmed.

Focus is now on the development of the next 40-day cycle trough. Continued weakness would increase the likelihood that the true 18-month trough still lies ahead. Until stronger bullish confirmation appears, Bitcoin should be treated as structurally uncertain rather than trend-confirmed.
 
Reference:
 
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Monday, December 8, 2025

2026 in J.M. Funk’s "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression"

J.M. Funk’s theory, first articulated in his 1932 pamphlet "The 56-Year Cycle in American Business Activity", posits a recurring 56-year rhythm in US economic and business conditions, driven by a chain of cause-and-effect events influenced by human behavioral traits—such as aspiration, greed, and intemperance—and modulated by external rhythmic forces akin to solar cycles.
 

The cycle transcends intervening factors like wars, technological advancements, or monetary policy changes, manifesting as three major panic periods within each 56-year span, spaced at intervals of approximately 20, 20, and 16 years. The cycle's structure is visually represented in a circular chart, originally drafted by Funk and redrawn by financial astrologer David Williams in 1959 and 1982, which delineates key phases: "Accumulating Surplus" (thrift and investment buildup), "Absorbing Surplus Production" (rising prices and sales), "Panic and Dumping" (market collapse and liquidation), "Industrial Stagnation" (depression and low activity), and "Uncontrolled Production" (overexpansion leading to renewed prosperity).

Funk's chart illustrates historical alignments across centuries, with years marked along concentric rings and "needles" connecting equivalent points in successive cycles. For instance, sequences such as 1801–1857–1913–1969 and 1817–1873–1929–1985 highlight recurring panic epochs, while subcycles (e.g., 9-year intervals) link shorter-term fluctuations. Prosperity emerges from post-panic thrift, fostering confidence and investment; however, extended booms breed overproduction, fictitious credit, and speculation, culminating in collapse. The depth of ensuing depressions mirrors the prior expansion's scale, with stock market drawdowns historically ranging from 25% to 40% during panic phases.

According to the cycle's alignment, late 2025 corresponds to the "Panic. Dumping." phase, characterized by high prices giving way to forced selling, bank strains, and commodity price collapses—echoing historical precedents like the Panics of 1857 (30% NYSE decline amid railroad overextension) and 1913–1914 (40% drop triggered by European liquidations). The chart's central long needle explicitly ties 2025 to this vortex, projecting a major bear market. An outer-ring marker at 2024 signals "High Prices. Sell Save," aligning with the S&P 500's peak on November 29, 1968, and suggesting a comparable crest in late 2024. This transitions into 2026, marked on the inner ring as "Low Prices. Buy," corresponding to troughs in January and May 1970 and indicating the onset of recovery.

Observed drawdowns during prior "Panic and Dumping" epochs:
The Panic of 1857, corresponding to the 1857 position on the chart, saw the New York Stock Exchange decline by approximately 30%, driven by bank failures, railroad overextension, and commodity price collapses.
The 1913–1914 crisis, linked to the 1913 marker, resulted in a roughly 40% drop in stock prices by August 1914, precipitated by European liquidations and heightened geopolitical tensions.
The 1968–1970 bear market, directly analogous to the 2025–2026 projection via the cycle's 56-year rhythm, featured a 37% decline in the S&P 500 from its peak on November 29, 1968, to its trough on May 25, 1970.

Quantitative projections draw from the 1968–1970 parallel, shifted by precisely 20,454 days (equivalent to 56 solar years): The S&P 500 declined 37% from its November 1968 high to its May 1970 low. Despite the panic designation, the decennial pattern of US stocks introduces nuance: 2025, as the fifth year in a decade, historically yields positive returns (breaking a rare negative streak seen in 2005), potentially mitigating the downturn's severity. 
 
Supplementary analyses from related frameworks, such as Hurst cycles and seasonality (not part of Funk's original model), suggest the most probable initiation of a sustained contraction in late 2025, extending into Q1 2026—specifically January—with potential acceleration from seasonal weaknesses before stabilization. Magnitude remains speculative but could mirror the 37% 1968–1970 precedent, moderated by contemporary factors like Federal Reserve policy. 

Wednesday, December 3, 2025

S&P 500 Now Declining into 18-Month Hurst Cycle Low | Ahmed Farghaly

Major asset classes (equities, metals, cryptos) are entering the final phase of their current 18-month cycles (beige-yellow in first chart below), with synchronized troughs expected from late January into early March 2026. 

S&P 500 / US Equities: The August 2024 trough is identified as the 54-month cycle low. The brief break beneath it in April 2025 is viewed as a false Trump—“Liberation Day”—Tariff straddle and the first 40-week/9-month cycle trough within the current 18-month cycle. Since that time, price action has built a clean sequence of 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, and 20-week cycles. 

S&P 500 (daily closes); 2020 to December 2025: The Big Picture. 
 
S&P 500 (daily bars); September to December 2025: Last stage of the 18-month cycle.
The current 20-day cycle (magenta) ideally bottoms on December 7 (Sun), and the 40-day cycle (red) on December 23 (Tue).
 
The market has completed the latest 80-day trough on November 21 (Fri) and has now entered the final 80-day cycle before the 18-month (beige-yellow) low, which is due around mid to late January 2026 (second chart above). A rally out of the 80-day cycle low into December, but without a new all-time high, was expected because the broken 20-week VTL typically marks the 40-week peak (see first chart). 
 
An early December high remains likely before a meaningful decline into the 18-month trough. This forthcoming weakness is regarded as a mid-cycle correction within the still-intact 54-month cycle upswing. Strong gains are projected for Q2–Q3 2026 as the new 18-month cycle rises.

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (December 1, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update: S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, CRB Index, Interest Rates, Bitcoin. (video)


See also:
 
divided by Consumer Price Index, 1942 to 2025, and Forecast into 2037.
 
» A "straddle" is an analysis period that has its high above the FLD and its low below. «
(Cyclitec Cycles Course: Lesson 8, p. 8-14; Lesson 9, p. 9-11; Appendix C, Chart #47).
A "false straddle" is caused by an exogenous shock—an abrupt, unpredictable event originating outside the market's endogenous cyclic structure—that temporarily disrupts the established hierarchy of cycles, such as the March 2020 COVID-19 pandemic crash or the April 2025 announcement of Trump's global "Liberation Day” tariffs crash.