Showing posts with label Cycles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cycles. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, Bitcoin | David Hickson

S&P 500A 20-week trough formed July 29. Bullish momentum has weakened but is not yet bearish; the key question is whether another 40-/80-day peak forms before an F-category break below the 20-day FLD initiates the decline into the mid-September 80-day trough.

 
NASDAQA 20-week trough formed at the end of July, at least 20-week magnitude and potentially higher. The NASDAQ retains stronger near-term bullish potential than the S&P 500, with 30,239 still outstanding and a possible double peak preceding the eventual F-category decline into the 80-day trough.

 
Australian ASXA 20-week trough formed around the US troughs, but the 20-day FLD has produced unclear signals and the trough did not clearly form below it. A 40-day trough probably formed in the third week of August, although an alternative remains. The ASX is likely approaching its second 80-day peak, but its FLD is unusually unreliable (23% interaction rating), while failure to reach 9,237 provides a stronger bearish warning than in the US markets.
 

 
GoldA 20-week trough formed in the third week of July. Gold's bullish impetus may have been exhausted at its recent 80-day/possible 20-week peak; the confirmed F-category FLD break favors approximately $4,312 and a mid-September 80-day trough, although larger bullish cycles may remain ahead.
 
 
BitcoinBitcoin has finally rallied from the potentially January 2026 18-month trough. A 20-week trough was identified in early July, although it could also represent a better placement of the 18-month trough. Bitcoin has finally produced the expected bullish strength; the 76,753 40-week FLD target has been exceeded, while the 20-day FLD will determine whether the 80-day trough occurred early or remains ahead.
 
 
Reference:

The $70k Gold Target Has a Date: Late 2050s | Branimir Vojcic

Inflation-adjusted monthly gold since 1970 shows three dominant long-term cycles: 55, 91, and 179 months. Multi-decade peaks in real gold form only when all three crest together.
 

That alignment has occurred three times since 1970, each marking a major historical top: January 1980 at $2,875, August 2011 at $2,699, and February 2026 at $5,492. The latest window ran from April 2025 to June 2026; real gold printed an all-time high 88% above the 1980 peak.

 
The next synchronicity does not return until the second half of the 2050s. Technicals still allow a much higher target at that date. Gold is rising inside a century-long trend channel whose upper rail capped the 1930s and 1980s highs. In Elliott terms it is subdividing through Cycle-degree Wave 5. Standard Fibonacci relationships put Wave 5 in the $18,000–$26,000 zone, which the upper channel reaches in the 2040s. A classic commodity-style fifth-wave extension would take gold near $70,000—the same upper-rail level the 55-, 91-, and 179-month cycles hit when they next peak together in the late 2050s.
 

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Astrological Decans, Tarot and Stock Market Cycles | Olga Morales

Financial markets react to shifts in collective mood—moving between optimism and pessimism, hope and fear, or confidence and panic. Australian financial astrologer Olga Morales explores how these emotional states manifest in market movements through astrologicadecans, Tarot symbolism, and planetary rhythms. Building on the foundational work of W.D. Gann (1878 – 1955) and Muriel Bruce Hasbrouck (18901981), her framework treats price patterns as direct expressions of collective human sentiment.
  
S&P 500 (daily candles). Mars decans: sharp reversals and volatility; Saturn decans: major market lows.

A decan is a 10-degree subdivision of a 30-degree zodiac sign—creating 36 segments across the 360-degree zodiac starting at Aries (defined by the spring equinox in the tropical zodiac)—each traditionally assigned a specific planetary ruler. Morales suggests that market turning points and periods of heightened volatility often correspond with the Sun or other planets moving through particular decans: Mars-ruled decans are frequently associated with sharp reversals and increased volatility, while Saturn-ruled decans often coincide with significant market lows.

The five Decans ruled by Mars: Aries Decan 1 (0°–10° Aries), Gemini Decan 2 (10°–20° Gemini), Leo Decan 3 (20°–30° Leo), Scorpio Decan 1 (0°–10° Scorpio), Capricorn Decan 2 (10°–20° Capricorn), and Pisces Decan 3 (20°–30° Pisces). The 36 Decans Chaldean Order ranks the seven traditional planets by geocentric orbital speed (°/day) from slowest to fastest: Saturn, Jupiter, Mars, Sun, Venus, Mercury, and Moon. Initiating at 0° Aries under the ruler Mars, this seven-planet sequence repeats continuously across the 36 decans, concluding the zodiac wheel at 30° Pisces under Mars, which creates the consecutive double-Mars rule at the Pisces-Aries nexus. 
Decans and the Tarot's Minor Arcana
Drawing from the occult teachings of the Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn, Muriel Hasbrouck demonstrated in her 1941 book, "Pursuit of Destiny" (later republished/retitled as "Tarot and Astrology"), that major market trend shifts consistently align with planetary entries into new decans. Her six-year study revealed that approximately 75% of market trend changes occurred within 24 hours of a decan boundary transition. Beyond financial markets, Hasbrouck applied this predictive framework to seismic activity, forecasting major earthquakes to a degree that occasionally drew government censorship. 
 
Following the Hasbrouck system, Morales assigns each decan a corresponding card from the Tarot's Minor Arcana. The cards are organized according to the four elements: Wands correspond to the fire signs Aries, Leo, and Sagittarius; Pentacles to the earth signs Taurus, Virgo, and Capricorn; Swords to the air signs Gemini, Libra, and Aquarius; and Cups to the water signs Cancer, Scorpio, and Pisces.
 
Psychological Interpretation of Market Behavior
By analyzing market indices like the S&P 500, individual Tarot cards provide a psychological interpretation of specific transits:
Mars-Ruled Decans: Associated with heightened volatility, sharp reversals, and conflict. Specific transits reflect distinct behavioral states—for instance, the Sun moving through Mars-ruled Gemini (9 of Swords) corresponds to market panic and despair, while its transit through Scorpio (5 of Cups) reflects downturns driven by a loss of pleasure and sentiment.
Saturn-Ruled Decans: Coincide with market bottoming phases, consolidation, and major cyclical lows.
Sun-Ruled Decans: Produce strong bullish momentum, particularly when the Sun transits its sign of exaltation in Aries. 
Upcoming planetary and solar 10° decan ingresses and retrograde
re-entries (ET). Sun-, Mars-, and Saturn-ruled decans are shaded yellow. 
Fast planets trigger short-term volatility; slow outer planets dictate macro trends.
Mars decans tend to trigger volatility reversals, whereas Saturn decans mark lows.
 
Applications for Traders
While initial observations often focus on the Sun's transit through the 36 decans (see first chart above), Morales's framework applies to all planetary bodies (see table above). Fast-moving inner planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars) trigger short-term volatility bursts, whereas slow-moving outer planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto) dictate multi-month macro trends as they pass through 10-degree sectors. Morales encourages traders to experiment with these planetary rhythms rather than accept them passively. It might be worth comparing tropical decan results against those of the Sidereal zodiac—used in Vedic astrology and astronomical observation—where 0° Aries is anchored to fixed star constellations rather than the equinox.
 
 
» Adding the mathematical components completes Olga Morales’s decan model. The chart above maps a S&P 500 volatility model against the Sun's decan positions, with the solid red line representing volatility—not trend. «

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

The Saturn-Rahu/Ketu Conjunction Blueprint of Market Cycles | Allen Reminick

This 1646 engraving by Jesuit polymath Athanasius Kircher is an astronomical calculating tool from his book Ars Magna Lucis et Umbrae (The Great Art of Light and Shadow). Known as the Eclipse Dragon, the diagram maps and predicts solar and lunar eclipses. The beast's winding body represents the ecliptic plane, as eclipses occur only when the Moon intersects this path. The dragon's head on the left marks the ascending North Node, historically called "Caput Draconis." Its coiled tail on the right signifies the descending South Node, or "Cauda Draconis."
Fifteen years of statistical validation show that buying during Moon-Ketu conjunctions and selling at Moon-Rahu conjunctions yields a 70% win rate over two-week periods in the S&P 500. The critical caveat is that even when the statistics suggest shorting during Moon-Rahu alignments, the prudent approach avoids counter-trend positions in a bull market. The deeper principle is that the nodes serve as polarity points: Ketu represents contraction and Rahu expansion, each exerting a predictable gravitational influence on market psychology.

Saturn-Rahu Synodic Cycle: The Explosive Bull Catalyst
The strongest evidence for planetary influence emerges from the 11.4-year Saturn-North Node synodic cycle (11.4045 years = 4,165.443 days). When the angle between them measures approximately thirteen degrees—as on March 01 (Sat), 2025 [exact 2025 Saturn–North Node conjunction: on April 14 with the mean node, on April 21 (Mon), 2025 with the true node], preceding the March 30th low—historical back-testing reveals extraordinary consistency. Over 110 years, every occurrence of this specific angular relationship produced an explosive rally shortly thereafter. The 2025 rally from the April lows demonstrated the pattern with remarkable precision, following the template established in 1992, 2003, and 2014, each separated by the 11.4-year interval.
The predictive power extends beyond price action into geopolitical correlation. The same Saturn-Rahu alignment that preceded the 2025 market low also maps to the beginning of the Iraq War in 2003, the Gulf War in 1991, and Ruhollah Khomeini's rise to power in Iran in 1979. Four cycles later, on February 28, 2026, Ali Khameini was murdered on the exact day another cycle began. The dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991 aligned with this cycle, while its formation sixty-nine years earlier also fell on the same pattern. The 2025 Straits of Hormuz crisis mirrors the Dardanelles crisis of 1878—precisely 148 years, or thirteen synodic cycles, apart—with both involving naval deployments to keep strategic waterways open.
Saturn-Ketu Conjunction: The Bearish Counterpoint
The opposite nodal alignment—Saturn conjunct Ketu—produces the mirror image: severe bear markets every 34 years, or three Saturn-Rahu cycles. The October 11th, 2007 conjunction in Leo [exact Saturn–Ketu conjunction October 12 or 23, ephemeris-dependent] marked the exact high of the Great Financial Crisis. 
Three cycles earlier came the 1974 bear market, triggered three days after President Nixon's resignation. Three cycles before that, the 1940 crash unfolded as Hitler's European campaign intensified. Each occurrence produced a waterfall decline of approximately twenty percent, establishing durable lows that, crucially, were followed by recovery to new highs within five years—a pattern suggesting that the 4,800 level on the S&P in April 2025 will hold as a long-term floor.
Symmetry of Opposites: Market Inversion Mechanics
When Saturn-Rahu and Saturn-Ketu conjunctions occur at opposite zodiacal points, the market responds with striking symmetry. The 2007 high, generated by a Ketu conjunction, corresponds to the 2025 low produced by its Rahu counterpart, inverting the Great Financial Crisis into an upside-down mirror image. 
 
The recent S&P rally was driven by the Saturn‑Rahu synodic cycle: On March 1, 2026, a high formed with a thirteen‑degree angle between Saturn and the North Node, followed by a low on March 30. This exact thirteen‑degree angle recurs every 11.4 years, and back‑testing over 110 years shows that every occurrence produced an explosive rally soon after the corresponding high. Crucially, from every Saturn‑Rahu low, the market is invariably higher five years later, with no exceptions, even when intermediate bear markets appear, as in 1957 and 1969. The synodic period of 11.4 years shifts through different zodiac signs, requiring a full thirteen cycles—totaling 148 years—to return to the identical starting position. On a short‑term basis, Moon‑Ketu conjunctions are bullish and Moon‑Rahu conjunctions are bearish, yet in a bull market one must never counter‑trend short on the Moon‑Rahu signal. 
The 17.5-year interval—1.5 times the 11.4-year cycle—aligns the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse, the worst phase of the decline, with the most explosive portion of the 2025 rally. On November 21 (Fri), a secondary low followed by a six-week bounce, maps precisely to current market positioning, providing a roadmap for the coming months: a continuation of the rally into September, punctuated by a July dip.

The 34-Year Cycle: Structural Superiority Through Zodiacal Rotation
While the 11.4-year Saturn-Rahu cycle demonstrates impressive predictive capability, the 34.2-year cycle exhibits greater longevity and structural integrity. The reason lies in zodiacal position: the 1991 conjunction occurred at the beginning of Capricorn [Jan 21 (Mon), 1991, while the 2025 alignment in the sidereal system occurred at approximately two degrees of Pisces]—a sixty-degree rotation. 
 
34.25-Year Saturn–Node Cycle Overlay: Weekly Dow versus the same chart shifted back 34.25 years (three Saturn–North Node synodic cycles of 11.4045 years each). The April 2025 low maps directly onto the December 1991 low, the 2007–09 financial-crisis decline aligns with the 1974 crash, and the 15 October 2014 low coincides with the 30 March 2025 low at 97 percent correlation on five-minute bars. The longer-term fidelity arises because the 1991 conjunction occurred at the start of Capricorn while the 2025 conjunction fell near 2° Pisces sidereal—a 60° rotation that preserves the cycle’s structural integrity far beyond isolated 11.4-year repetitions. Project the pattern forward from 34 years ago for the continuing roadmap.
This sixty-degree planetary shift, equivalent to one-sixth of the zodiac, preserves the cycle's periodicity across extended timeframes with 95% correlation. The April 2025 low corresponds precisely to the December 1991 low, with identical swing structures, while the 2007–2009 financial crisis maps to the 1974 crash, demonstrating that the thirty-four-year interval captures both the 11.4-year cycles and their sixty-degree rotations.

Jupiter-Saturn Supra-Cycle: The Grand Synthesizer
Above these cycles operates the Jupiter-Saturn synodic cycle, completing every 19.85 years and remaining in the same elemental sign for 250-year epochs. The 60-year cycle—three Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions, approximating 59.6 years—provides the most reliable long-term market template, with 1965 aligning perfectly with 2025 and 1966 with 2026. 
Multiplying the three cycles yields a 178-year interval connecting the 1842 Opium Wars to the current opioid crisis in the US, with trade direction reversing from west-to-east to east-to-west. The same 178-year span links Mexico's 1828 independence and subsequent invitation to American settlers with today's immigration crisis, demonstrating that these cycles govern not merely market prices but the collective human drama itself.
Human Element: Consciousness Embedded in Cosmic Structure
The patterns repeat because human nature remains constant. The same emotions, fear and greed, and cognitive biases that drove traders in 1878 continue to drive traders today. Planetary configurations serve as signposts—mathematical markers of where collective consciousness directs its attention and emotional energy. 
 
Partial Solar Eclipse (August 12, 2026) and Partial Lunar Eclipse (August 28, 2026) over New York. Moon-Rahu and Moon-Ketu conjunctions occur once per Draconic Month (~27.2122 days) at each node. The most critical conjunctions occur when the Moon aligns with a node near a syzygy (New or Full Moon), producing solar or lunar eclipses—for example, March 3, 2026, Ketu: Total Lunar Eclipse; August 12, 2026, Rahu: Total Solar Eclipse; August 28, 2026, Rahu: Partial Lunar Eclipse. 
Recognizing this structure dissolves the apparent chaos of markets into ordered pattern. The trader ceases to be a victim of random events and becomes an informed participant in a cosmic drama, understanding that the script was written not in Washington or on Wall Street, but in the mathematics of the solar system itself. As the ancient aphorism states: "As above, so below." Markets, far from being disconnected from natural law, operate as its most transparent expression.

 

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Gold Has Bottomed? What the Cycles Say | Branimir Vojcic

Shorter-term cycles indicate that Gold has formed an interim bottom. 
 
 
The composite line of the five dominant short- and medium-to-longer-term cycles (32, 79, 118, 194 and 1,181 trading days or 46.4, 114.5, 171 and 281 calendar days) projects an upcoming medium-term peak on September 11 (Fri), followed by the next trough on November 16 (Mon). 


However, the composite line of the two dominant long-term cycles (1,181 trading days or 4.687 years and 1,832 trading days or 7.27 years) suggests that Gold's correction will continue through late October 2028, followed by a rally extending into the end of November 2030.  

Saturday, August 8, 2026

VIX 80-Day Cycle Low Within Days & Volatility Ready to Break Out | Namzes

The VIX 80-day cycle low is expected within the next few days. August 5 marked day 68, which is slightly early but still within range. The 40-day cycle, shown in the bottom panel, reflects a 2:1 harmonic ratio relative to the 80-day cycle. August options expiration (OpEx, Friday, August 21) should be watched as a potential window for a volatility breakout. Volatility is likely to rise into October, where the next key low in the S&P 500 may form.

Top panel: VIX price + 80-day cycle. Middle: Seasonality/trend + dated cycle lows. Bottom: 40-day cycle oscillator.

The S&P 500's 20-week cycle low likely occurred on July 29 (Wed), with 7,313 now serving as a key daily pivot for any downside. As the VIX cycle approaches its low in the coming days, it is important to monitor the VIX term structure, which is currently reaching extreme contango levels, indicating that 30-day volatility is significantly lower than 3-month volatility. When this ratio approaches and clusters around 0.80, it signals market complacency and often precedes pullbacks in equities.

VIX/VIX3M ratio vs. S&P 500.
 
The VIX/VIX3M ratio, shown inverted in the lower panel for easier comparison against the S&P 500 (in gold), highlights these 0.80 readings. When combined with extreme dispersion and a rapidly declining put/call ratio this week, these conditions point to increasing volatility, which is expected to spike in the second half of August.


See also:

Sunday, August 2, 2026

Thursday, July 30, 2026

The Turn-of-the-Month Effect: A Century of Empirical Evidence

The turn-of-the-month (TOM) stock market anomaly, where returns cluster heavily around month-end and early-month trading days, is validated by academic literatureAnalyzing Dow Jones data from 1910 to the present using a relative trading day counter that excludes weekends and holidays reveals that while mid-month returns remain weak or negative, performance surges dramatically from the second-to-last trading day (day -2) through the fourth trading day (day +4) of the new month. 

 The TOM anomaly (-2 to +4 trading days) has delivered persistent outperformance
versus buy-and-hold with lower drawdowns across 116 years of Dow data.  
 
Segmenting this 116-year history into three 40-year periods (1910–1950, 1950–1990, and 1990–present) confirms consistent TOM outperformance across all regimes, despite a post-1990 dip on the final trading day skewed by rare macro anomalies like 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis. A systematic strategy trading this -2 to +4 window historically outperformed traditional buy-and-hold, generating higher profits with lower drawdowns during the 1929 crash, multi-decade sideways markets, the dot-com bust, and the 2022 bear market, showing historical flat periods often precede strong resurgences. The strategy's second-largest drawdown occurred in 2008, supporting the outlier theory. 
 
Hypothesized causes like recurring automated capital flows (salaries/retirement) and institutional rebalancing remain unproven, as trading volumes do not spike and automated systems did not exist in 1910. Lacking a definitive causal consensus, the TOM effect persists either as a structural confluence or an unexplained anomaly. 
 

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains | Seth Golden

Buying the S&P 500 on US midterm election day and holding until June 30 of the following year has produced positive returns in every instance since 1942, averaging roughly +16% with a range of about +2.5% to +30.8% across all cycles, regardless of which party controlled the White House, Senate, or House. 
 
» If you bought on Midterm Election Day, held through June 30th of
the following year the S&P 500 was higher EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. « 
 
Midterm years themselves typically deliver the weakest average returns (~4–5%) and highest volatility/drawdowns in the four-year presidential cycle, with weakness often concentrated in Q3/Q4 ahead of November; the rebound usually begins in late Q4. 
 
Nevertheless, cycle rankings place Year 3 (the post-midterm/pre-election year) as the historical "sweet spot," typically outperforming Year 1 (~4–7%), Year 2/midterm (~3–5%, weakest), and Year 4/election (~6–8%), with average gains often cited in the 10–17% range as incumbents frequently pursue pro-growth policies.
 
 
DJIA Four-Year Presidential Cycle.
Average S&P 500 total-return path (indexed to 100 on midterm Election Day) for all midterm years since 1970 (1970–2022), spanning roughly ±6 months. X-axis centers on Election Day (first Tuesday in November); y-axis tracks cumulative total return. The average line rises in the final ~22 trading days before the election (= October 2, 2026) and continues higher afterward (+14.1% average in the following six months). A separate “Lost Control” series (party loses presidential trifecta) lags the broader average post-election (+10.4% vs. +16.1%)
 

Monday, July 27, 2026

20-Week Hurst Cycle Low Due in SPX QQQ SOX SMH | Namzes

The last 80-day cycle bottomed on time (June 10). Semiconductor stocks (SOX/SMH) made marginal new all-time highs, while the broader indices—the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)—remained slightly below theirs.

PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX).

We are now due for a 20-week cycle low. July 17 marked day 109 and last Friday day 116, so a low may already be in, though it’s early to confirm. Alternatively, if this was only a 40-day low, the current 20-week cycle could extend into a late-August bottom. This would be the fourth bullish cycle in a row, increasing the likelihood that the next cycle is left-translated (bearish).

The subsequent 20-week low, following the August trough, is projected for late October, aligning with seasonal weakness and potentially offering a significant buying opportunity (see the April 2025 SOX projection).  A 3.5-year cycle (Kitchin Cycle) low is still expected ahead, but no major liquidation has occurred yet and models have not issued a sell signal. Market breadth remains acceptable; however, leadership—particularly in technology and semiconductors—is weakening, while defensive rotation is increasing, both of which are cautionary signals.

Using Hurst cycle analysis, the semiconductor ETF (SMH) is entering the 10-week FLD (Future Line of Demarcation). In a strong uptrend, this level typically acts as support; a break below would imply lower projections toward the 200-day moving average (200 DMA) and Q1 highs. For now, this remains a preliminary, low-confidence projection.

PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX).

The current 40-day cycle should continue rising for a few more trading days. The next 40-day low in August will help determine whether the new 20-week cycle is bullish or bearish. A bearish outcome would show early failure, indicating left translation.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

We are in a short-term downtrend, with the 50-day moving average (50 DMA) acting as a pivot near 600 on SMH. Above it, 620 is the key resistance level.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

 
Failure at 600 would open the path to liquidation toward Q1 highs, filling gaps below and repairing weak structure, including the large volume void between 420 and 537 (which includes the July 17 low).
 
See also:
 
Hurst Cycle Troughs and Peaks (November 2025 through July 24, 2026).
 
» The current 20-week cycle could extend into a late-August bottom. « 
Forward Cycle Projection through late 2026-early-2027.