Showing posts with label Martin A. Armstrong. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Martin A. Armstrong. Show all posts

Thursday, October 31, 2024

BRICS Will Not Kill the Dollar—War Will | Martin Armstrong

The BRICS currency was created for geopolitical reasons when the neocons transformed the SWIFT system into an economic weapon and even threatened China with the same fate if they supported Russia. Once this occurred, the neocons turned the entire world’s monetary system into a weapon of war. This is why we have BRICS; it had nothing to do with killing the dollar or backing their currency with gold.

 » All currency is fiat, even when it is gold. Just because a currency is
backed by gold does not eliminate inflation or deflation. «

Many hoped for an official announcement regarding a gold-backed currency, which failed to materialize. A gold-backed currency would be massively deflationary. The money supply could not expand with the population or in times of need without new discoveries. Just because a currency is backed by gold does not eliminate inflation or deflation. The gold discoveries of the 19th century in California, Alaska, and Australia caused significant economic upheaval, followed by wars. The fact that gold was the currency did not prevent inflation.

Spain defaulted seven times. The gold and silver they brought back from the New World led to massive inflation in Europe. Those who preach that a gold standard is the solution lack an understanding of history. They blame “fiat currency,” as if eliminating it will solve all problems. There were booms and busts throughout ancient times long before paper money existed. All currency is fiat, even when it is gold. I have shown that Southern India routinely imitated Roman gold coins because they held a premium over gold—this is fiat. Northern India and the Kushan Empire issued their own coinage primarily because they traded more with China. Southern India used imitation Roman gold coins for about 250 years, confirming that the Roman coinage was worth more than its metal content.
 
 » The purchasing power of gold fluctuated at all times. The value of a currency is determined 
by the productive capacity of its people, not by its gold reserves. «

Similar claims were made about the Euro, which also did not work out well. Why? The value of a currency is determined by the productive capacity of its people, not by its gold reserves. Japan and Germany lost the war yet rose to the top of the economic hierarchy because their populations were productive. The United States has the largest consumer-based economy, which means that everyone needs to sell their products here, requiring transactions in dollars. The US is also strong militarily, which further supports the currency's foundation.

It is time to abandon these outdated economic theories, remnants from the 18th and 19th centuries. The economy has evolved since then. The neocons are destroying the dollar and undermining the future of the United States. When we lose another one of their endless wars, financial capital will shift from New York to Beijing. Just as war diminished Britain, so will it diminish the dollar and the United States.


Sunday, September 8, 2024

Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025 | Sergey Tarassov

 » DJIA correction begun, and the 41 Month Kitchin Cycle suggests a decline until the end of 2025. «  
 —  Sergey Tarassov, August 5, 2024.
 
» Multiyear High in the DJIA between June and October 2024, i.e. sometime
between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle.
  «    
 —  Sergey Tarassov, June 25, 2024.

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (August 5, 2024) - Tune Up 41 Month Kitchin Cycle for DJIA. (video)
Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

 2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table: » Major Panic - CRASH! «
 
—  Martin Armstrong, June 14, 2024.
 

Friday, August 30, 2024

The US Is Now Ready for Violence, Civil War & Secession | Martin Armstrong

This will probably be the last election in the United States, for we will most likely split into three regional governments. [...] There is no question that post-election violence will be extreme. Whenever you have this winner-takes-all system and political corruption unfolds, the LEFT is not seeking to govern the nation; they are seeking to oppress all opponents.
 
 » The United States will most likely split into three regional governments. «
 
[...] Democracies are supposed to be where people have the right to vote. The Democrats were denied the right even to select their candidate. This is tyranny, for Kamala was merely installed. [...] Typically, governments go into civil wars when there is a conflict that is culturally/ethnically, religiously, or racially driven, and we are now checking that box and just waiting for the election. We will face a rigged and contested election that neither side will accept. When there is no confidence in the government anymore, the ONLY resolution is always violence. History confirms this prognostication. How can there be such fantastic polls for Kamala, who never won a single delegate during the 2020 primary, and we look at the only real independent poll organization that shows confidence in Congress down to 7%?

 » No question that post-election violence will be extreme. «

It does not matter who wins. This election will NEVER be accepted, and it certainly will NOT unify the country. The Democratic Convention threw Trump’s name out 329 times. It was just a hate fest. That will ensure violence. The LEFT will never accept a Trump victory – NO WAY!!!!! There is no belief that this election will be free and fair. The United States has declined into this dangerous characteristic that warns the country is far too divided to stand. I am concerned that the dollar may decline FOR THIS REASON. I want to think that reform is possible. Unfortunately, history tells us that when an empire, nation, country, or city-state is this divided, REFORM becomes possible only AFTER violence.  
 

Monday, August 19, 2024

Precious Metals Setting Up for a False Move? | Martin Armstrong

When we look at precious metals, one would expect this is the long-awaited breakout for gold. Yet there is something amiss. The Yearly Array still points to a Turning Point here: 2024 with a Directional Change. That would imply that we may be looking at an important high come Monday if we reach at least 2673, or making highs after Monday may lead to the final high on August 28th, which may be more likely. The major resistance stands at the 2800 level. However, the initial target resistance for this coming week stands at 2573, 2589, 2695, and 2705.

 

Platinum is not following gold and implies it may yet test support into 2025 before a rally unfolds. Note that we have a Directional Change here in 2024 as well. However, it appears to be a low forming in 2025 and a shift to the upside thereafter.
 
 

When we turn to the Silver/Gold Ratio, we see a Double-Directional Change in 2024. The Stochastic is starting to turn down, implying that gold may decline, but silver will gain on the ratio. This is pointing to a more sustainable bull market in the years ahead [...]

 

Before a sustainable bull market exists, there is always the FALSE MOVE; in this case, it looks to be shaping up to the downside. This may present an important buying opportunity as we head into the election.

 

Sunday, July 14, 2024

Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13 | Martin Armstrong

 
This assassination attempt came precisely at the time our computer had provided. The week of July 15th was showing up when this year began. Look at the volatility and uncertainty ahead into September. Will they try again? 
 
 

Thursday, June 6, 2024

The Five Stages of the Revolutionary Cycle | Martin Armstrong

Governments fall when the police no longer offer them protection. [...] The Revolutionary Cycle takes place in five stages:

Stage 1: Whistleblower Disagreements; Discontentment Grows
Stage 2: Initial Conflict Begins; Economy Begins to Decline
Stage 3: Civil Unrest Peaks
Stage 4: Revolution
Stage 5: Recovery

The FIRST STAGE in a revolution is always the rise of intellectual whistleblower disagreement, which the government simply ignores as a passing phase. This stage is the realization of corruption and injustice of governmental rule. Perhaps the symbolization of this was the revelation of Edward Snowden [2013 – present
] that the government was violating the constitution and abusing its power against the people, constructing a 100% surveillance state [...]

 » The former head of state is often publicly killed, and typically all their ministers. «

The SECOND STAGE is where the intellectual debates prove pointless, and the initial conflict begins. This corruption has run its course, and governments have transformed justice into their own self-interest. This stage is usually accelerated by governments raising taxes in the midst of an economic decline. [...] This is when history will typically produce some leader who can be a moderate who sees the problem and will often try to reason in order to reach a resolution that is ignored by the government. This further intensifies the feelings of injustice, especially in light of the economic decline. [...]

The THIRD STAGE is where it often becomes an outright war in the streets as governments seek to retain power and refuse to see the error of their ways. [...]


The FOURTH STAGE is retribution in a domestic revolution in direct confrontation with the government and head of state. [...] The former head of state is often publicly killed, and typically all their ministers.  [...]

 » Hang everyone. That's the only solution. «
Washington D.C. – May 31, 2024

The FIFTH STAGE is typically the recovery stage, where a new form of government emerges from the ashes. [...] During this recovery stage, the radicals are usually overthrown, and sometimes, a new head of state emerges, such as Napoleon or Oliver Cromwell. [...] Divisions emerge once again between opposing political views. At this point, there is the restoration of a sense of nationalism, but the cycle of corruption slowly begins to take root. 
 
We [the USA] are currently in the SECOND STAGE of the Revolutionary Cycle and rapidly heading toward STAGE THREE as discontent grows.
 
 
The end is nigh, draw or mate? – June 6, 2024
 
See also:

Tuesday, June 4, 2024

The Sixth Wave and 2032.95 | Martin Armstrong

Here is the Economic Confidence Model at the very high end to all the questions about how high up the fractal structure can be defined.

 Martin Armstrong's Fractal Design of Time.

We are in the grand Public Wave overall that peaks in 2032.95. This is the equivalent of the wave that picked the Peak of Rome in 175 AD. So here, too, this is a wave where the government will fight very hard to hold control, for that is the dominant 309.6 character, while the final wave on the next fractal level is a Private Wave of 51.6 years. This is the people fighting back as they lose confidence in the government. The two forces are at war right now. The worse the environment becomes for the people, the more authoritarian governments will become. Each wave of 8.6 also alters back and forth between Public and Private.

This is why I warn it is time to try to reduce the amplitude by waking up. We achieved this briefly with the Age of Enlightenment. Government then fought back and reclaimed control. We replaced monarchy with ministers. Nothing changed otherwise. We will fight the good fight once again and seek to triumph with a new age of Enlightenment. Will we win? Who knows. But we have to try. What comes after 2032 is a private wave – the opportunity to reclaim our liberty once again.
Here is that chart.
 
 » It has been propaganda that we live under a democracy. The people have no right to vote on critical issues.  
Republics historically are the most corrupt forms of government. «

The last Sixth Wave marked the peak of the Roman Empire. Every historian has drawn the line to mark the beginning of the Fall of Rome took place with the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD. Talk about almost getting to a new age, he sent an ambassador to China. This has been revealed by books from the Tang Dynasty. The East and West knew each other. Merchants ran the trade routes. This would have been the beginning of a major global economy back in 180 AD. Marcus’ death ended the golden age and expansion of the world economy. He was followed by his crazy son, Commodus. With the death of Commodus, the Praetorian Guard actually auctioned off the position of emperor to the highest bidder. Since he was just nuts, they got to rule Rome, and it went to the heads, to the point that corruption was in the open.
 

I have told the story of how I used to meet with people who wanted to run for President at the behest of those in the Republican Party. Then in 1999, I was asked to fly down to Texas to meet with George Bush, Jr. I was told that this was different. They had me meet with various potential candidates to vet them out and give my opinion if they could handle the job from understanding the global economy. So what was different with Bush, Jr., was the fact they told me he was “stupid.” I was shocked. I asked why would you want to make someone stupid president? I was told he had the “name.” That is when they asked me to be the chief economist in the White House. I declined, for our business was way too global for that. They told me the plan was to surround him with good people. That is how Cheney took the role of President and moved his office in the White House.

 » The 8.6 year frequency is fractal in nature and it may indeed 
work from different dates other than the formal dates we show on the ECM. «

I have been told similar traits with Obama. He was told they would let him play with the social stuff but leave everything else to them. The bureaucracy tasted power under Bush, and they were not about to let that go. Obama missed more than 60% of his daily security briefings. Biden is, at best, a part-time president who no one believes is truly running the nation because he simply is not mentally capable of doing so. This is the Praetorian Guard running the world.

 
» By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. «

Saturday, May 18, 2024

China Sells Off Record Amount of Dollar Assets as US Remains World's Bully

China sold off a record $53.3 billion of Treasury and agency bonds in the first quarter of 2024, a move seen as part of Beijing’s drive to diversify from US dollar assets. This comes as gold's share in China's official reserves rose to 4.9% in April, the highest on record.
 
»
It is a wise decision to diversify away from USD and to hold physical gold in your own country. «
Claudio Grass - May 18, 2024  

[...] This comes as Beijing vowed to retaliate against the Biden administration’s tough new levies on a wide array of Chinese-made goods, ranging from semiconductors and solar power cells to electric cars - the latest move in the escalating trade war between China and the US. The PRC’s Commerce Ministry warned that it would "take resolute measures to safeguard its own rights and interests" in response to the US’s 25-100% tariff hikes, accusing Washington of turning economic and trade issues into an instrument of "domestic political considerations." The warning followed the White House accusing China of "non-market policies and practices" resulting in "growing overcapacity and export surges that threaten to significantly harm American workers, businesses and communities."

 » And people expect interest rates to decline? «
Martin Armstrong - May 18, 2024
 
[...] Asked how the latest developments could affect the greenback on the global markets, Claudio Grass, an expert on monetary history, economics and an independent precious metals advisor based out of Switzerland, argued that "it will lead to the collapse of the USD and the current system. It is obvious that the Western civilization is being destroyed by their own corrupted and rotten political system and its rulers. The renewed politically enforced separation of the East and the West will lead to turmoil and chaos."
 
 
See also:

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

It is unlikely that we can avoid a Third World War | Martin Armstrong

Piero Messina: Fukuyama advocated the end of history. Huntington spoke of a clash of civilizations. Is it possible to imagine a third way?

Martin Armstrong: Our greatest threat is centralized control; that is what doomed communism. I agree with Huntington that the clash of civilizations will be based upon cultures and religion mainly because of centralized attempt to impose a unified culture.
 
 » It is unlikely that we can avoid world war. 
Governments need war because their debts are no longer sustainable. 
They will use the war as the excuse for defaults – as was the case for WWII. 
They will create Bretton Woods II with the IMF digital currency as the reserve.
I believe we have a third world war that will begin piecemeal with the Middle East, Iran vs Israel, 
Europe vs Russia, North Korea vs Japan and South Korea, China vs Taiwan. 
But they will eventually merge together. «

At the end of the 1980s, the reference geopolitical model was the unipolar world, based on Western primacy. What cultural, military, and economic pillars is the Washington Consensus based on? Is it true freedom?

The military in economic pillars that dominate Washington today have nothing to do with freedom. They have to do with people who were unwilling to accept the collapse of communism. Whereby the enemy was transformed by communism to ethnic racism.

With the birth of the BRICS, is it possible to talk about a multipolar option? What are the limits that you see in this geopolitical dimension?

The birth of the BRICS was caused by these people we call the Neocons who engaged in ethnic racism and targeted Russia by removing them from the world economy under SWIFT. This woke up many in the world, realizing that the dollar was now being weaponized and was no longer a monetary instrument exclusively. Nations began to realize if they did not conform to the commands of Washington, then they to could be removed from SWIFT. Thus they have divided the world economy bringing to an end globalization.

Your analysis and studies seems to reveal several critical issues regarding the stability of the so-called Western system. There is a profound crisis of democratic systems, there is a lot of mistrust towards mainstream information and above all there are “agents” external to the institutions (an example above all is the activity of George Soros) who seem to influence the choices of governments in the United States and Western Europe. What could happen in the immediate future and in the coming years?

It has been propaganda that we live under a democracy. We live under republics in which case the people are represented and have no right to vote on critical issues. Republics historically are the most corrupt forms of government compared to a monarchy or dictatorship which cannot be bribed. In a republic, all representatives lacking term limits are up for sale to the highest bidder. This has resulted in the collapse of confidence in government both in Europe and the US which have fallen below 30% – the lowest since WWII. External agents such as George Soros, Bill Gates, World Economic Forum, push personal agendas which has further undermined the confidence in our systems. It is the government that decides if we go to war or not. The people are never asked.

 » It has been propaganda that we live under a democracy
We live under republics in which case the people are represented and have no right to vote on critical issues. 
Republics historically are the most corrupt forms of government. «

We invite you to make some reflections on the geoeconomic dimension. The global capitalist system is based on the indebtedness of sovereign states. Is this a sustainable situation? Who will pay the bill in the end?

The sovereign debt crisis that we face has appeared often throughout history. It is unsustainable because governments act in their own self-interest and will always expand debt to retain power. Historically, these systems collapse when they issue new debt to pay off the old, and no one is there to buy the new debt. Once they can no longer continue to borrow new money, then inevitably, they collapse.

Your predictive model is based on precise calculations. The cycles of history and the economy thus seem to chase each other along the time span of history. If I’m not mistaken, you compared the current context to the crisis and dissolution of the Roman Empire. Is it correct?

History repeats because human nature never changes. The Roman Empire is but one example from history of its success and failures. It lasted longer than anyone because it did not impose cultural regulations. The Christians called them pagans because they had so many Gods. That was the product of their policy of freedom of religion. Athens had Athena, Northern Europe had Thor, so they did not try to change the culture of the lands they conquered. They created a common market where someone in Britain could sell products to someone in Rome. So the freedom of religion, low taxation, freedom of movement, and a common market combined to create the Pax Romana.

Is it still possible to avoid a large-scale world conflict?

It is unlikely that we can avoid world war. Governments need war because their debts are no longer sustainable. They will use the war as the excuse for defaults – as was the case for WWII. They will create Bretton Woods II with the IMF digital currency as the reserve.

Pope Francis has been talking about a piecemeal Third World War for years. From your point of view, is what the Holy Father claims can be shared? What are the main weapons of this possible Third World War?

I believe we have a third world war that will begin piecemeal with the Middle East, Iran vs Israel, Europe vs Russia, north Korea vs Japan and South Korea, China vs Taiwan. But they will eventually merge together.

Have you argued that the true wealth of a state is its people? Why did we forget about all this? Above all, who is it convenient for?

The wealth of every nation is its people. That has been proven with the rise of Germany and Japan after WWII. This is the essence of Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand.” But those in government prefer Marx, for he advocates that the state has the power to manipulate the people. So, Governments have forgotten it and reject Smith because Marx provides them with more power.

Is it correct to claim that your analysis succeed in covering the intersection of geopolitics, global markets and economic confidence? Can you explain to us in a simple way how your Socrates predictive model works? By the way, why did you name it just like the Greek philosopher?

I named my computer model after Socrates because the oracle of Delphi had said that he was the smartest man in Greece. He tried to prove the oracle wrong and the process proved it to be correct. He was put on trial and sentenced to death because he knew too much. My computer has taught me a lot in geopolitics, we had a major bank in Lebanon in the 1980’s and they asked if I could create a model on the Lebanese pound. I put the data in the computer and it came out and said their country would fall apart in 8 days. I thought something was wrong with the data. When I told the client, they asked me what currency would be best, and I said the Swiss Franc. Eight days later the civil war began. Obviously they saw the movement of money themselves and came to me for the timing. The same thing happened with a client in Saudi Arabia who was a big shipper. He called me asking me what gold would do tomorrow because Iran was going to begin attacking shipping in the gulf. So once again, there was advanced information about war. By 1998, I understood how the computer was forecasting such events. I warned in June at our London conference that Russia was about to collapse. The London financial Times had snuck into the back of the room and reported that forecast on the front of their newspaper on June 27th 1998. Russia collapsed about 6 weeks later.

Are unpredictable events, such as the terrorist attack in Moscow, also considered among the parameters of your predictive model? A “black swan” type event can change the course of history and geopolitical relations?

Yes, we saw the capital flows shift a day in advance, up to a week in advance in the case of the attack in Israel. The defense stocks began to rise even with 9/11 the government used our model to look at who bought puts on airlines in the days before. Someone always knows when they’re going to do these types of events. And they move their money either to profit or to avoid a loss. The computer is tracking everything. It cannot tell me which person has done it. Just that the move is about to take place.

 
 » America is a Golden Calf and we will suck it dry, chop it up, and sell it off piece by piece. «
 

Thursday, May 2, 2024

The Kremlin's Last Warning | Martin Armstrong

Dmitry Konstantinovich Kiselyov (born 1954) is a major TV host, and his latest warning to the West is to issue an ultimatum to the UK and the US. On Russian TV, Kiselyov warned [on April 29, 2024] that if a Western power deploys soldiers on the ground in Ukraine to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, it will result in Armageddon. Of course, what I find stunning is how the Western press characterizes him as “Vladimir Putin’s propagandist,” and the implication of those words is that they are not a real threat. 
 
» Then the very moment would come. ‌«
RS-28 Sarmat [dubbed 'Satan II' by NATO] is Russia's most capable hypersonic thermonuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). With a range of 18,000 km and traveling 27 times the speed of sound, Sarmat can extinguish any target/country/enemy anywhere on the planet within minutes with one single strike. Including the US - May 1, 2024.

The press takes NOTHING said from Russia seriously – it’s all a joke, just propaganda. [...] Kiselyov is not going to say this on national TV without the Kremlin actually delivering this warning. He said:  If NATO countries send their troops into Ukraine in order to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, then the very moment about which Putin once said, Why do we need the world, if there is no Russia in it? would come.‌

» Russia can turn the US into radioactive ash. This is not propaganda. ‌«
Dmitry Kiselyov, delivering the Kremlin's last warning - April 29, 2024

Russia has indeed threatened to turn the US into radioactive ash and sink Britain below the waves. While some NATO leaders have been more circumspect, this need for war to justify the defaulting on debt that is the real factor behind the West’s desire for war will have far greater consequences than these fake world leaders who are all hand puppets of the Neocons. Kiselyov added: This is not propaganda. Yet in the West, the Neocons are saying this is a bluff, and Putin will never use nukes so the West can completely destroy Russia – their hated enemy for decades, without a shot fired.

Quoted from:
 
» There seems to be a conspiracy in the British Isles. Why threaten boundless Russia with nuclear weapons while sitting on a small island? The island is so small that one Sarmat missile is enough to sink it once and for all. This is just one launch, and there is no England, once and for all! Another option to plunge Britain into the abyss is the Russian Poseidon. There is no way to stop this underwater drone. It has a warhead with a capacity of up to 100 megatons. The explosion of this thermonuclear torpedo off the coast of Britain will raise a giant wave up to 500 meters high. Such a squall of water is also a carrier of extreme doses of radiation. Passing over the British Isles, it will turn what may be left of them into a radioactive desert. ‌«
Dmitry Kiselyov - May 2, 2022.