Showing posts with label Reserve Currency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Reserve Currency. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

The Financial System Has Reached The End | Egon von Greyerz

The world is now witnessing the end of a currency and financial system which the Chinese already forecasted in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window [...] History tells us that we have now reached the point of no return. So denying history at this point will not just be very costly but will lead to a total destruction of investors’ wealth. 
 

History never lies but politicians do without fail. In a fake system based on false values, lying is considered to be an essential part of political survival. Let’s just look at Nixon's ignorant and irresponsible statements of August 15, 1971 when he took away the gold backing of the dollar and thus all currencies. Later on we will show how clear-sighted the Chinese leaders were about the destiny of the US and its economy. So there we have tricky Dick’s lies:
  • The suspension of the convertibility of the dollar in 1971 is still in effect 52 years later.
  • As the dollar has declined by almost 99% since 1971, the “strength of the economy” is also declining fast although using fiat money as the measure hides the truth.
And now to the last lie: “Your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow”. Yes, you are almost right Dick!  It is still worth today a whole 1% of the value when you closed the gold window. The political system is clearly a farce. You have to lie to be elected and you have to lie to stay in power. That is what the gullible voters expect. The sad result is that they will always be cheated. So in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window, China in its official news media the People’s Daily made the statements below: 

 
Clearly the Chinese understood the consequences of the disastrous US decision which would destroy the Western currency system as they said:
  • Seriousness of the US economic crisis and decay and decline of the capitalist system.
  • Mark the collapse of the monetary system with the US dollar as its prop.
  • Nixon’s policy cannot extricate the US from financial and economic crisis.
I am quite certain that the US administration at the time ridiculed China’s official statement. As most Western governments, they showed their arrogance and complete ignorance of history. How right the Chinese were. But the road to perdition is not immediate and we have seen over 50 years the clear “decline of the capitalist system”. The end of the current system is unlikely to be far away. Interestingly it seems that a Communist non-democratic system is much more clairvoyant than a so called Western democracy. There is clearly an advantage not always having to buy votes. 
 
As the whole currency system is about to implode,  it is in my view totally irrelevant where the US dollar is heading short term measured against other fiat currencies. The dilemma is that most “experts” use the Dollar Index (DXY) as the measure of the dollar’s strength or weakness. This is like climbing the ladder of success only to find out that the ladder is leaning against the wrong building. To measure the dollar against its partners in crime (the other fiat currencies) misses the point as they are all on the way to perdition. So the dollar index measures the dollar against six fiat currencies: Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Kroner and Swiss Franc. The Chinese Yuan shines in its absence even though China is the second biggest economy in the world. But here is the crux. The dollar is in a race to the bottom with 6 other currencies. Since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 all 7 currencies, including the US dollar, have declined 97-99% in real terms. Real terms means constant purchasing power. And the only money which has maintained constant purchasing power for over 5,000 years is of course gold. So let’s make it clear – the only money which has survived in history is GOLD!

All other currencies have without fail gone to ZERO and that without exception. Voltaire said it already in 1729: "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero." And that has been the destiny of every currency throughout history. Every single currency has without fail gone to ZERO. And this is where the dollar and its lackeys are heading. To debate if a currency, which has fallen 98.2% in the last 52 years, is going to strengthen or weaken in the next year or two is really missing the point. It is virtually 100% certain that the dollar and all fiat money will complete the cycle (which started in 1913 with the creation of the Fed) and fall the remaining 1-3% to ZERO. But we must remember that the final fall involves a 100% loss of value from today.
 
 
[...] The world’s reserve currency has had a sad performance based on lies, poor real growth, all due to a mismanaged economy based on debt and printed money. So although most currencies have lost 97-99% in real terms since 1971 there are shining exceptions. When the gold window was closed in 1971 I was working in a Swiss bank in Geneva. At the time, one dollar cost Swiss Franc 4.30. Today, 52 years later, one dollar costs Swiss Franc 0.88! This means that the dollar has declined 80% against the Swiss Franc since 1971. 
 

So a country like Switzerland with virtually no deficits and a very low debt to GDP proves that a well managed economy with very low inflation doesn’t destroy its currency like most irresponsible governments. The Swiss system of direct democracy and people power is totally unique and gives the people the right to have a referendum on almost any issue they choose. This makes the people much more responsible in their choices as a winning vote on any issue becomes part of the constitution and cannot be changed by government or parliament. Only a new referendum can change such a decision. Swiss Debt to GDP is around 40%. This was the level of US debt back in 1971 before the gold window was closed. [...] US debt to GDP is now 132%. In 2000 it was 55%. 132% debt to GDP is the level of a Banana Republic which is frantically trying to survive by printing and borrowing ever increasing amounts of worthless fiat money.
  
 
 Agustín Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) — the central bank of central banks in Basel, Switzerland — admits that Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) will grant central bankers 
» absolute control « over how it can be used, and the technology to be able to centrally enforce that. Not 'up to date' with your injections? Exceeded your weekly carbon allowance? Ventured outside of your designated '15 minute' district? Oops, no money for you!  
 
» Digital ID and CBDC is the essence of scientific dictatorship «, says Patrick Wood, author of the 2014 book 'Technocracy Rising: 
The Trojan Horse of Global Transformation'. He breaks down the all-encompassing digital open-air prison
that CBDC and digital ID are designed to facilitate.
 
Joe Rogan, host of the world's most popular podcast, is now wide awake to the grave dangers posed to freedoms by CBDC, and the social credit systems that it facilitates. » If you get a bad social credit score because you tweeted something they didn't like, now you can't buy a plane ticket, now you can't buy a car, now you can't get a loan. «

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Saturday, November 11, 2023

Ratings of a Failed Empire

War is war. The US budget deficit for the first 9 months stood at a staggering $2 trillion when the US Treasury declared it would add another $776 billion to US debt before 2023 ends. These were absolute and unprecedented historical records. More war? No problem.
 
 August 30, 2021  ─  Old news still good. Plandemic. Covid time.

 
November 10, 2023  ─ End game of US forces in the Sahel, in the Gulf, the Mediterranean, 
the Red Sea, the Black Sea, in Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, Gaza and Israel. Groundbreaking.

Yesterday  ─  November 10  ─  the US government attempted to borrow $24 billion by selling some fresh 30-year debt. It was a huge disaster. In order to attract enough buyers, the rate had to be raised sharply. And even so, the major US banks had to buy 25% of the debt because there were no other buyers at all. Even frequent buyers like Japan didn't participate this time. With buyers catastrophically scarce, the US government keeps borrowing more than ever and has no intention of stopping. Well, if they really want to borrow such amounts, they will be forced to offer ever higher rates to attract lenders. Everyone knows what high interest rates are doing to their economy and people. The Biden administration's debt isn't just getting more expensive to service. It's also getting harder and harder to sell at all
 
 The never-bankrupt-empire's yield   ─  November 7 - 10, 2023.
 
Moody's downgraded the outlook on the US credit rating to 'negative' from 'stable', citing large budget deficits and declining debt affordability, prompting immediate criticism from President Joe Biden's administration. The revised view from Moody's means the likelihood of a further downgrade of the US over the next 12 months. The ratings agency said that "continued political polarization" in US Congress raises the risk that lawmakers will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability. Etcetera.
 
The American special tribute toll to the masters of their fate  ─  2007 - 2053.

Moody’s was the only and last of the three main credit rating businesses with a top rating on the US after Fitch Ratings downgraded the US government in August following their latest 'debt-ceiling battle'. S&P Global Ratings stripped the US of its top rating in 2011 amid what was brandished 'debt ceiling crisis'. Immediately after the Moody's release, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said the change was "yet another consequence of congressional Republican extremism and dysfunction." And Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo disagreed with the evaluation. He said the Biden administration had demonstrated its commitment to fiscal sustainability, the American economy remains strong, and Treasury securities are the world’s preeminent safe and liquid asset. Sure, except for some good reasons.
 
» The Civilization-State always maintains self-sufficiency, autonomy and autarchy.
The Globalist-State does not.
«

Alexander Dugin, The Civilization-State. ─ June 02, 2023.

Thursday, October 26, 2023

BRICS+ Destroys The US And EU Currency Monopoly | Michael Hudson

There is no way that today’s international debt overhand can be repaid. That is as true for the United States as it is for Global South debtors. The US Treasury owes much more to foreign governments in the form of their holdings of US securities than it can foreseeably repay. It has post-industrialized its own economy, and has committed to spending enormous sums abroad, while its dependency on foreign imports is rising and its prospects for collecting its existing debt claims on deficit countries is looking shaky. The past half-century’s foreign investment has taken the form of privatization of the public domain of debtor countries. This investment has not helped them develop but has merely transferred ownership of their oil and mineral rights, public utilities and other assets. A viable international financial system requires productive investment such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative that can help countries prosper, not asset stripping. Dollar dominance will continue over Europe and other US satellites. Other countries that still need dollar reserves for their trade and investment with the United States can continue as it has. But what will be changed is a new basis for the international economy itself. There will not be a new BRICS currency in the sense of a dollar or euro that could become a medium for trade, investment or international speculation. There will only be a mutual "currency of settlement" of payments imbalances among central banks joining the new system. And that system itself will be based on principles opposite from the financialized neoliberal model being promoted by the Dollar/NATO bloc. That is the real context for the current discussion of BRICS+ economic reform.


President Putin was very clear when he recently talked in Valdai about a single settlement currency: "This definitely deserves our attention. It's a complex issue, and we have to solve it in one way or another." The Western press talks about how much wealth and reserves do the BRICS countries have. Naturally, you count their gold as a large part of their reserves. But where is the gold of the BRICS countries? Much of their gold is not in their own countries. It's in the New York Federal Reserve Bank, it's in the Bank of England and the gold of African countries is in the Bank of France. Right now, this gold is being held hostage. But countries can ask the US, the UK and France to give them back their gold. Germany tried to do that a few years ago and said, "Can't you begin to give us our gold back that was moved to your banks during the last seventy-five years of  US occupation? " And the US said, "Oh I'm sorry, we can't. We've already done something else with your gold. There are legal problems and we are not giving it back to you!" Now, let's say the BRICS countries would ask for their gold and if the United States and England and France will not return it, those countries could take compensation, including all of the foreign investments in their countries. They could do another thing: If, especially the African countries, say, "You've stolen our gold. You cannot expect us to pay our foreign dollar debts if you have come and seized our gold. Give us back our gold. You owe to us. And by the way, we're going to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization so you can't send your troops in and do what you did in Libya and simply grab it." This is an element of the financial future that nobody in the West has talked about.

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Monday, July 3, 2023

The BRICS+ Currency | James G. Rickards

A new BRICS+ currency will be announced in Durban, South Africa, at the annual BRICS Leaders’ Summit Conference on August 22–24, 2023 [...] In all likelihood, the new BRICS+ currency would not be available in the form of paper notes for use in everyday transactions. It would be a digital currency on a permissioned ledger maintained by a new BRICS+ financial institution with encrypted message traffic to record payments due or owing by participating parties. (This is not a cryptocurrency because it is not decentralized, not maintained on a blockchain and not open to all parties without approval.)

BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, representing about 27% of the world's land
surface, 41% of the global population, and 32% of global GDP PPP.
The most important development in the BRICS system concerns the expansion of BRICS membership.
This has led to the informal adoption of the name BRICS+ for the expanded organization.
Currently 10 additional nations formally applied for membership:
Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
24 countries have expressed interest in joining the BRICS:
Afghanistan, Angola, Belarus, Comoros, Cuba, D.R. Congo, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras, Kazakhstan, Mexico,
Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Uganda, Uruguay, Venezuela
and Zimbabwe.
By every measure — population, landmass, energy output, GDP, food output and nuclear weapons — BRICS is not
just another multilateral debating society. They are a substantial and credible alternative to Western hegemony.
The BRICS are developing an optical fiber submarine telecommunications system that would connect its members.
It is being developed under the name BRICS Cable. Part of the motivation for BRICS Cable is to foil spying by
the U.S. National Security Agency on message traffic carried through existing cable networks.


[...] It appears likely that the new BRICS+ currency will be linked to a weight of gold. This plays to the strengths of BRICS members Russia and China, who are the two largest gold producers in the world and are ranked sixth and seventh respectively among the 100 nations with gold reserves.
 
[...] Reserve currencies are essentially the savings accounts of sovereign nations that have earned them through trade surpluses. These balances are not held in currency form but in the form of securities. When analysts say the dollar is the leading reserve currency, what they actually mean is that countries hold their reserves in securities denominated in a specific currency. For 60% of global reserves, those holdings are U.S. Treasury securities denominated in dollars. The reserves are not actually in dollars; they’re in securities. As a result, you cannot be a reserve currency without a large, well-developed sovereign bond market. No country in the world comes close to the U.S. Treasury market in terms of size, variety of maturities, liquidity, settlement, derivatives and other necessary features.

[June 29, 2023]
Jail break acceleration:
Ethiopia, one of Africa's fastest-growing economies, is
aiming to become the latest brick in the firewall against U.S.-imperialism.

[...] The BRICS+ currency offers the opportunity to leapfrog the Treasury market and create a deep, liquid bond market that could challenge Treasuries on the world stage almost from thin air. The key is to create a BRICS+ currency bond market in 20 or more countries at once, relying on retail investors in each country to buy the bonds. The BRICS+ bonds would be offered through banks and postal offices and other retail outlets. They would be denominated in BRICS+ currency but investors could purchase them in local currency at market-based exchange rates. Since the currency is gold backed it would offer an attractive store of value compared with inflation- or default-prone local instruments in countries like Brazil or Argentina. The Chinese in particular would find such investments attractive since they are largely banned from foreign markets and are overinvested in real estate and domestic stocks. [...] The sheer volume of retail investing in BRICS+-denominated instruments in India, China, Brazil and Russia and other countries at the same time could absorb surpluses generated through world trade in the BRICS+ currency. In short, the way to create an instant reserve currency is to create an instant bond market using your own citizens as willing buyers.
 
The United States exploits the world's wealth with the help of "seigniorage."
It costs only about 17 cents to produce a 100 dollar bill, but other countries
had to pony up 100 dollar of actual goods in order to obtain one (HERE)
 
[...] This entire turn of events — introduction of a new gold-backed currency, rapid adoption as a payment currency and gradual use as a reserve asset currency — will begin on August 22, 2023, after years of development. Except for direct participants, the world has mostly ignored this prospect. The result will be an upheaval of the international monetary system coming in a matter of weeks.

 
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