Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction | Martin Armstrong

The year 2025 marks a critical turning point, with a global economic crisis on the horizon. Our computer models predict a major downturn, particularly in Europe, and a prolonged US recession extending into 2028. This crisis stems from long-term mismanagement by central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, which kept interest rates too low for too long, forcing banks to hold risky government debt. While analysts focus on short-term rates, the Fed has little control over long-term rates, which continue to rise despite rate cuts. Tensions in Europe, including the threat of World War III, are exacerbating this issue and pushing rates even higher.

» While financial elites are aware of the looming collapse, everyday people will feel its full force. «

The rise in long-term rates reflects a loss of confidence in government debt. For instance, corporate bonds in France are now offering better returns than government bonds, and even Greece's debt is becoming more attractive. This points to systemic weaknesses within European governments. Meanwhile, the US faces its own dilemma: raising rates to combat inflation only makes its national debt more expensive. As the world's largest borrower, higher rates simply add to the debt burden rather than reducing spending. This crisis underscores the failure of Keynesian economics, which Paul Volcker acknowledged in 1979. Today, the US government borrows far more than in the past, and raising interest rates does little to curb spending—it only adds to the debt.

The financial system is now in deep trouble, and the average person will bear the consequences. Europe is headed for a depression, and the US is facing a severe recession. Unemployment will rise, wages will shrink, and basic goods will become more expensive. The gap between the rich and poor will widen, and financial instability will increase. A sovereign debt default in Europe by 2025 is likely to trigger a broader collapse, with massive financial instability by 2026-2027. Many banks and pension funds are heavily invested in government debt, and a default could lead to the disintegration of European financial systems. Insiders are very much aware of the crisis and fear that public panic could worsen the situation, potentially triggering bank runs. While not all banks are equally at risk, poor management and political interference in banking have worsened the problem. The Federal Reserve, designed to act as a backstop for failing banks, may be overwhelmed by the scale of the crisis.

 

The impact on ordinary Americans will be severe, with rising unemployment, shrinking wages, and higher living costs. While financial elites are aware of the looming collapse, everyday people will feel its full force. The US government’s failure to roll over its debt could spark a chain reaction, causing widespread bank failures. The interconnectedness of the banking system means one collapse could trigger a broader financial breakdown. Cash will become essential, as digital transactions and credit systems may fail, as seen in previous disruptions like the Canadian trucker protests.

I strongly recommend preparing for this crisis by having physical cash and at least two years' worth of food stored. The collapse of the financial system will lead to widespread losses in banks and pension funds, and the government and central banks will be unable to protect everyone. Those who are unprepared will suffer the most.

 November 2024: A Norwegian task force has advised against the immediate adoption of a central 

bank digital currency, while South Korea has launched a CBDC pilot with seven major banks.

As the debt crisis worsens, geopolitical instability will exacerbate inflation and push capital into the US as a safe haven. The dollar will strengthen, and sectors like gold, food, and bonds will see increased investment. However, emerging markets with high foreign-denominated debt, such as Brazil, will be particularly vulnerable to financial crises.

I also caution against the growing threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which would grant governments unprecedented control over personal finances. The rise of gold as a long-term safe haven, coupled with rising long-term interest rates, will create significant risks for those holding variable-rate debt. People should prepare by securing tangible assets like cash, food, and gold, and locking in fixed-rate debt where possible. The coming crisis is inevitable, and those who prepare will have the best chance of weathering the storm.

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (December 21, 2024) - Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction in 2025. (video)

 

See also:

TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

Lu Qiyuan (December 8, 2024) - Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0.  

 Martin Armstrong (June 21, 2024) - Final Days of the Empire. (video)

L. David Linsky (2023) - War and or Revolution in 2026. The 84 Year War Cycle.

Bojan S. Dimitrijević et al. (2016) - Sunspots and Stock Markets: Evidence of their Interdependence in Transition Countries.

Mikhail Gorbanev (2012) - Sunspots, Unemployment, and Recessions: Can the Solar Activity Cycle shape the Business Cycle?

The Great Awakening vs the Great Reset

 70th Bilderberg Club Meeting in Madrid from May 30th to June 2nd, 2024.

Support the shark!

It is unlikely that we can avoid a Third World War | Martin Armstrong

Piero Messina: Fukuyama advocated the end of history. Huntington spoke of a clash of civilizations. Is it possible to imagine a third way?

Martin Armstrong: Our greatest threat is centralized control; that is what doomed communism. I agree with Huntington that the clash of civilizations will be based upon cultures and religion mainly because of centralized attempt to impose a unified culture.

 

 » It is unlikely that we can avoid world war. 

Governments need war because their debts are no longer sustainable. 

They will use the war as the excuse for defaults – as was the case for WWII. 

They will create Bretton Woods II with the IMF digital currency as the reserve.

I believe we have a third world war that will begin piecemeal with the Middle East, Iran vs Israel, 

Europe vs Russia, North Korea vs Japan and South Korea, China vs Taiwan. 

But they will eventually merge together. «

At the end of the 1980s, the reference geopolitical model was the unipolar world, based on Western primacy. What cultural, military, and economic pillars is the Washington Consensus based on? Is it true freedom?

The military in economic pillars that dominate Washington today have nothing to do with freedom. They have to do with people who were unwilling to accept the collapse of communism. Whereby the enemy was transformed by communism to ethnic racism.

With the birth of the BRICS, is it possible to talk about a multipolar option? What are the limits that you see in this geopolitical dimension?

The birth of the BRICS was caused by these people we call the Neocons who engaged in ethnic racism and targeted Russia by removing them from the world economy under SWIFT. This woke up many in the world, realizing that the dollar was now being weaponized and was no longer a monetary instrument exclusively. Nations began to realize if they did not conform to the commands of Washington, then they to could be removed from SWIFT. Thus they have divided the world economy bringing to an end globalization.

Your analysis and studies seems to reveal several critical issues regarding the stability of the so-called Western system. There is a profound crisis of democratic systems, there is a lot of mistrust towards mainstream information and above all there are “agents” external to the institutions (an example above all is the activity of George Soros) who seem to influence the choices of governments in the United States and Western Europe. What could happen in the immediate future and in the coming years?

It has been propaganda that we live under a democracy. We live under republics in which case the people are represented and have no right to vote on critical issues. Republics historically are the most corrupt forms of government compared to a monarchy or dictatorship which cannot be bribed. In a republic, all representatives lacking term limits are up for sale to the highest bidder. This has resulted in the collapse of confidence in government both in Europe and the US which have fallen below 30% – the lowest since WWII. External agents such as George Soros, Bill Gates, World Economic Forum, push personal agendas which has further undermined the confidence in our systems. It is the government that decides if we go to war or not. The people are never asked.

 » It has been propaganda that we live under a democracy. 

We live under republics in which case the people are represented and have no right to vote on critical issues. 

Republics historically are the most corrupt forms of government. «

We invite you to make some reflections on the geoeconomic dimension. The global capitalist system is based on the indebtedness of sovereign states. Is this a sustainable situation? Who will pay the bill in the end?

The sovereign debt crisis that we face has appeared often throughout history. It is unsustainable because governments act in their own self-interest and will always expand debt to retain power. Historically, these systems collapse when they issue new debt to pay off the old, and no one is there to buy the new debt. Once they can no longer continue to borrow new money, then inevitably, they collapse.

Your predictive model is based on precise calculations. The cycles of history and the economy thus seem to chase each other along the time span of history. If I’m not mistaken, you compared the current context to the crisis and dissolution of the Roman Empire. Is it correct?

History repeats because human nature never changes. The Roman Empire is but one example from history of its success and failures. It lasted longer than anyone because it did not impose cultural regulations. The Christians called them pagans because they had so many Gods. That was the product of their policy of freedom of religion. Athens had Athena, Northern Europe had Thor, so they did not try to change the culture of the lands they conquered. They created a common market where someone in Britain could sell products to someone in Rome. So the freedom of religion, low taxation, freedom of movement, and a common market combined to create the Pax Romana.

Is it still possible to avoid a large-scale world conflict?

It is unlikely that we can avoid world war. Governments need war because their debts are no longer sustainable. They will use the war as the excuse for defaults – as was the case for WWII. They will create Bretton Woods II with the IMF digital currency as the reserve.

Pope Francis has been talking about a piecemeal Third World War for years. From your point of view, is what the Holy Father claims can be shared? What are the main weapons of this possible Third World War?

I believe we have a third world war that will begin piecemeal with the Middle East, Iran vs Israel, Europe vs Russia, north Korea vs Japan and South Korea, China vs Taiwan. But they will eventually merge together.

Have you argued that the true wealth of a state is its people? Why did we forget about all this? Above all, who is it convenient for?

The wealth of every nation is its people. That has been proven with the rise of Germany and Japan after WWII. This is the essence of Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand.” But those in government prefer Marx, for he advocates that the state has the power to manipulate the people. So, Governments have forgotten it and reject Smith because Marx provides them with more power.

Is it correct to claim that your analysis succeed in covering the intersection of geopolitics, global markets and economic confidence? Can you explain to us in a simple way how your Socrates predictive model works? By the way, why did you name it just like the Greek philosopher?

I named my computer model after Socrates because the oracle of Delphi had said that he was the smartest man in Greece. He tried to prove the oracle wrong and the process proved it to be correct. He was put on trial and sentenced to death because he knew too much. My computer has taught me a lot in geopolitics, we had a major bank in Lebanon in the 1980’s and they asked if I could create a model on the Lebanese pound. I put the data in the computer and it came out and said their country would fall apart in 8 days. I thought something was wrong with the data. When I told the client, they asked me what currency would be best, and I said the Swiss Franc. Eight days later the civil war began. Obviously they saw the movement of money themselves and came to me for the timing. The same thing happened with a client in Saudi Arabia who was a big shipper. He called me asking me what gold would do tomorrow because Iran was going to begin attacking shipping in the gulf. So once again, there was advanced information about war. By 1998, I understood how the computer was forecasting such events. I warned in June at our London conference that Russia was about to collapse. The London financial Times had snuck into the back of the room and reported that forecast on the front of their newspaper on June 27th 1998. Russia collapsed about 6 weeks later.

Are unpredictable events, such as the terrorist attack in Moscow, also considered among the parameters of your predictive model? A “black swan” type event can change the course of history and geopolitical relations?

Yes, we saw the capital flows shift a day in advance, up to a week in advance in the case of the attack in Israel. The defense stocks began to rise even with 9/11 the government used our model to look at who bought puts on airlines in the days before. Someone always knows when they’re going to do these types of events. And they move their money either to profit or to avoid a loss. The computer is tracking everything. It cannot tell me which person has done it. Just that the move is about to take place.

Quoted from:
Piero Messina (May 1, 2024) - Interview with Martin Armstrong.

 

 » America is a Golden Calf and we will suck it dry, chop it up, and sell it off piece by piece. «

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (May 1, 2024) - Will Russia Push the Button?

The Financial System Has Reached The End | Egon von Greyerz

The world is now witnessing the end of a currency and financial system which the Chinese already forecasted in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window [...] History tells us that we have now reached the point of no return. So denying history at this point will not just be very costly but will lead to a total destruction of investors’ wealth. 

 

History never lies but politicians do without fail. In a fake system based on false values, lying is considered to be an essential part of political survival. Let’s just look at Nixon's ignorant and irresponsible statements of August 15, 1971 when he took away the gold backing of the dollar and thus all currencies. Later on we will show how clear-sighted the Chinese leaders were about the destiny of the US and its economy. So there we have tricky Dick’s lies:

• The suspension of the convertibility of the dollar in 1971 is still in effect 52 years later.
• As the dollar has declined by almost 99% since 1971, the “strength of the economy” is also declining fast although using fiat money as the measure hides the truth.

And now to the last lie: “Your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow”. Yes, you are almost right Dick!  It is still worth today a whole 1% of the value when you closed the gold window. The political system is clearly a farce. You have to lie to be elected and you have to lie to stay in power. That is what the gullible voters expect. The sad result is that they will always be cheated. So in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window, China in its official news media the People’s Daily made the statements below: 

 

Clearly the Chinese understood the consequences of the disastrous US decision which would destroy the Western currency system as they said:

• Seriousness of the US economic crisis and decay and decline of the capitalist system.
• Mark the collapse of the monetary system with the US dollar as its prop.
• Nixon’s policy cannot extricate the US from financial and economic crisis.

I am quite certain that the US administration at the time ridiculed China’s official statement. As most Western governments, they showed their arrogance and complete ignorance of history. How right the Chinese were. But the road to perdition is not immediate and we have seen over 50 years the clear “decline of the capitalist system”. The end of the current system is unlikely to be far away. Interestingly it seems that a Communist non-democratic system is much more clairvoyant than a so called Western democracy. There is clearly an advantage not always having to buy votes. 

 

As the whole currency system is about to implode,  it is in my view totally irrelevant where the US dollar is heading short term measured against other fiat currencies. The dilemma is that most “experts” use the Dollar Index (DXY) as the measure of the dollar’s strength or weakness. This is like climbing the ladder of success only to find out that the ladder is leaning against the wrong building. To measure the dollar against its partners in crime (the other fiat currencies) misses the point as they are all on the way to perdition. So the dollar index measures the dollar against six fiat currencies: Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Kroner and Swiss Franc. The Chinese Yuan shines in its absence even though China is the second biggest economy in the world. But here is the crux. The dollar is in a race to the bottom with 6 other currencies. Since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 all 7 currencies, including the US dollar, have declined 97-99% in real terms. Real terms means constant purchasing power. And the only money which has maintained constant purchasing power for over 5,000 years is of course gold. So let’s make it clear – the only money which has survived in history is GOLD!

All other currencies have without fail gone to ZERO and that without exception. Voltaire said it already in 1729: "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero." And that has been the destiny of every currency throughout history. Every single currency has without fail gone to ZERO. And this is where the dollar and its lackeys are heading. To debate if a currency, which has fallen 98.2% in the last 52 years, is going to strengthen or weaken in the next year or two is really missing the point. It is virtually 100% certain that the dollar and all fiat money will complete the cycle (which started in 1913 with the creation of the Fed) and fall the remaining 1-3% to ZERO. But we must remember that the final fall involves a 100% loss of value from today.

 

 

[...] The world’s reserve currency has had a sad performance based on lies, poor real growth, all due to a mismanaged economy based on debt and printed money. So although most currencies have lost 97-99% in real terms since 1971 there are shining exceptions. When the gold window was closed in 1971 I was working in a Swiss bank in Geneva. At the time, one dollar cost Swiss Franc 4.30. Today, 52 years later, one dollar costs Swiss Franc 0.88! This means that the dollar has declined 80% against the Swiss Franc since 1971. 

 

So a country like Switzerland with virtually no deficits and a very low debt to GDP proves that a well managed economy with very low inflation doesn’t destroy its currency like most irresponsible governments. The Swiss system of direct democracy and people power is totally unique and gives the people the right to have a referendum on almost any issue they choose. This makes the people much more responsible in their choices as a winning vote on any issue becomes part of the constitution and cannot be changed by government or parliament. Only a new referendum can change such a decision. Swiss Debt to GDP is around 40%. This was the level of US debt back in 1971 before the gold window was closed. [...] US debt to GDP is now 132%. In 2000 it was 55%. 132% debt to GDP is the level of a Banana Republic which is frantically trying to survive by printing and borrowing ever increasing amounts of worthless fiat money.

  

Quoted from:
Egon von Greyerz (Nov 27, 2023) - The Financial System Has Reached The End.

 

 Agustín Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) — the central bank of central banks in Basel, Switzerland — admits that Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) will grant central bankers » absolute control « over how it can be used, and the technology to be able to centrally enforce that. Not 'up to date' with your injections? Exceeded your weekly carbon allowance? Ventured outside of your designated '15 minute' district? Oops, no money for you!  

 

» Digital ID and CBDC is the essence of scientific dictatorship «, says Patrick Wood, author of the 2014 book 'Technocracy Rising: 

The Trojan Horse of Global Transformation'. He breaks down the all-encompassing digital open-air prison

that CBDC and digital ID are designed to facilitate.

 

Joe Rogan, host of the world's most popular podcast, is now wide awake to the grave dangers posed to freedoms by CBDC, and the social credit systems that it facilitates. » If you get a bad social credit score because you tweeted something they didn't like, now you can't buy a plane ticket, now you can't buy a car, now you can't get a loan. «

See also:

Bank for International Settlements (2023) - BIS Innovation Hub work on central bank digital currency (CBDC).

International Monetary Fund (Nov 20, 2023) - Central Bank Digital Currency Development Enters the Next Phase.

Atlantic Council (Mar 21, 2023) - Snapshot: Which countries have made the most progress on CBDCs so far in 2023.

Imran N. Hosein (2021) - The Bretton Woods International Monetary System.

Carroll Quigley (1963) - The BIS — The Apex Of The System.

Carl Schmitt (1932) - Legality and Legitimacy.

Legality and Legitimacy | Carl Schmitt

Carl Schmitt ranks among the most original and controversial political thinkers of the twentieth century. His incisive criticisms of Enlightenment political thought and liberal political practice remain as shocking and significant today as when they first appeared in Weimar Germany.

 

Carl Schmitt (1888 — 1985), » among the most original « , e.g.:

 » The emptiness of mere majority calculus deprives legality of all persuasive power. «

 

Legality and Legitimacy was composed in 1932, in the midst of the crisis that would lead to the collapse of the Weimar Republic and only a matter of months before Schmitt’s collaboration with the Nazis. Schmitt questions the political viability of liberal constitutionalism, parliamentary government, and the rule of law. Liberal governments, he argues, cannot respond effectively to challenges by radical groups like the Nazis or Communists. Only a presidential regime subject to few, if any, can ensure domestic security in a highly pluralistic society.

Quoted from the introduction to the 2004 first English translation of

Carl Schmitt (1932) - Legality and Legitimacy.

 

November 24, 2023 - In the People's Republic of China, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is linked to citizens' mandatory digital ID. If somebody drives over the speed limit, the speed camera system automatically deducts a fine from their digital wallet.

 

November 24, 2023 - President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, announces the launch of the European CBDC — the digital euro — which will enable unelected technocrats at the ECB to program how, when, where, on what and by whom it can be spent, including the imposition of social credit, carbon allowance and vaccine passport systems. And despite the lie that 'cash is here to stay', you can be absolutely certain that megalomaniac technocrats such as Lagarde have every intention of gradually phasing out cash altogether, so eventually people will be forced to use CBDCs. European Union citizens already face imprisonment or fines for engaging in cash transactions above €1000, but the introduction of the digital euro will facilitate financial totalitarianism on a scale that would make even George Orwell wince.

 

November 24, 2023 - Christine Anderson, German Member of the European Parliament, explains how CBDCs, in conjunction with digital ID, will be used to exert absolute control over the population: » If you don't comply, they will just shut down your bank account. And it's not like it hasn't happened before. Look to Canada ... There were people standing up for their freedom, for their right not to get some unknown substance injected into their arms. They shut down their bank accounts. So if there was no cash, what are you going to do? They can just eliminate you with a flip of a switch. It's as simple as that. «

 

 

» This would imply to castrate humankind and to degrade it down to the pitiful level of the Chinese. «

Friedrich Nietzsche (1888) answering to Immanuel Kant's 'eternal peace' ideas in his Ecce Homo. Why I am a destiny.

The BRICS+ Currency | James G. Rickards

A new BRICS+ currency will be announced in Durban, South Africa, at the annual BRICS Leaders’ Summit Conference on August 22–24, 2023 [...] In all likelihood, the new BRICS+ currency would not be available in the form of paper notes for use in everyday transactions. It would be a digital currency on a permissioned ledger maintained by a new BRICS+ financial institution with encrypted message traffic to record payments due or owing by participating parties. (This is not a cryptocurrency because it is not decentralized, not maintained on a blockchain and not open to all parties without approval.)

BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, representing about 27% of the world's land
surface, 41% of the global population, and 32% of global GDP PPP.
The most important development in the BRICS system concerns the expansion of BRICS membership.
This has led to the informal adoption of the name BRICS+ for the expanded organization.
Currently 10 additional nations formally applied for membership:
Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
24 countries have expressed interest in joining the BRICS:
Afghanistan, Angola, Belarus, Comoros, Cuba, D.R. Congo, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras, Kazakhstan, Mexico,
Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Uganda, Uruguay, Venezuela
and Zimbabwe.
By every measure — population, landmass, energy output, GDP, food output and nuclear weapons — BRICS is not
just another multilateral debating society. They are a substantial and credible alternative to Western hegemony.
The BRICS are developing an optical fiber submarine telecommunications system that would connect its members.
It is being developed under the name BRICS Cable. Part of the motivation for BRICS Cable is to foil spying by
the U.S. National Security Agency on message traffic carried through existing cable networks.

[...] It appears likely that the new BRICS+ currency will be linked to a weight of gold. This plays to the strengths of BRICS members Russia and China, who are the two largest gold producers in the world and are ranked sixth and seventh respectively among the 100 nations with gold reserves.

 

[...] Reserve currencies are essentially the savings accounts of sovereign nations that have earned them through trade surpluses. These balances are not held in currency form but in the form of securities. When analysts say the dollar is the leading reserve currency, what they actually mean is that countries hold their reserves in securities denominated in a specific currency. For 60% of global reserves, those holdings are U.S. Treasury securities denominated in dollars. The reserves are not actually in dollars; they’re in securities. As a result, you cannot be a reserve currency without a large, well-developed sovereign bond market. No country in the world comes close to the U.S. Treasury market in terms of size, variety of maturities, liquidity, settlement, derivatives and other necessary features.

[June 29, 2023]
Jail break acceleration:
Ethiopia, one of Africa's fastest-growing economies, is
aiming to become the latest brick in the firewall against U.S.-imperialism.

[...] The BRICS+ currency offers the opportunity to leapfrog the Treasury market and create a deep, liquid bond market that could challenge Treasuries on the world stage almost from thin air. The key is to create a BRICS+ currency bond market in 20 or more countries at once, relying on retail investors in each country to buy the bonds. The BRICS+ bonds would be offered through banks and postal offices and other retail outlets. They would be denominated in BRICS+ currency but investors could purchase them in local currency at market-based exchange rates. Since the currency is gold backed it would offer an attractive store of value compared with inflation- or default-prone local instruments in countries like Brazil or Argentina. The Chinese in particular would find such investments attractive since they are largely banned from foreign markets and are overinvested in real estate and domestic stocks. [...] The sheer volume of retail investing in BRICS+-denominated instruments in India, China, Brazil and Russia and other countries at the same time could absorb surpluses generated through world trade in the BRICS+ currency. In short, the way to create an instant reserve currency is to create an instant bond market using your own citizens as willing buyers.

 

The United States exploits the world's wealth with the help of "seigniorage."
It costs only about 17 cents to produce a 100 dollar bill, but other countries
had to pony up 100 dollar of actual goods in order to obtain one (HERE)

 

[...] This entire turn of events — introduction of a new gold-backed currency, rapid adoption as a payment currency and gradual use as a reserve asset currency — will begin on August 22, 2023, after years of development. Except for direct participants, the world has mostly ignored this prospect. The result will be an upheaval of the international monetary system coming in a matter of weeks.

Quoted from:
James G. Rickards (June 06, 2023) - The BRICS+ Currency.

 

See also:

James G. Rickards (2012) - Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis.  

TPR (2014) - March 18, 2014  - Pivot of History: The Ascent of a Multi-Polar World System.

TPR (2016) - The End of Cheap China: 16 Emerging Low Wage Economies.

TPR (2022) - Bankster's Paradise.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China (2023) - US Hegemony and Its Perils.