US Treasury Secretary Bessent: "Sanctions Could Disrupt Global Finance!"

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined "Operation Economic Outcast," a phased sanctions campaign targeting Iran’s cryptocurrency, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping sectors, while warning third countries to cut ties with Tehran or risk losing access to the US dollar. 

  

 Currency Collapse Indicator Model: US 2026 worse than Venezuela 2017. Ready for shock therapy?

» Scott Bessent looks to be intentionally crashing the $. I studied currency collapses and found that there were  7 indicators that preceded every major currency collapse in modern history. I then measured the US dollar against those 7. And as of right now, based on what Scott Bessent did last week, we have hit all 7 indicators. No country in modern history has met all 7 and avoided a currency collapse. None. And this doesn't look to be happening to us, it looks to be being done to us, by the people who swore an oath to prevent it. And they are getting rich while they do it. «

Scott Bessent—The Fox in the Henhouse.

He warned that "sanctions could disrupt global finance," arguing that a gradual approach gives nations time to end their dealings with Tehran and avoid broader financial disruption. His remarks drew mixed reactions, ranging from claims that they amounted to an "empire-level economic terrorist" admission to interpretations that they were simply a rhetorical push for compliance, fueling memes and debate over the global impact of sanctions.

» Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? «

Bessent's recent doubling of bond buybacks and sanctions have been cited as potential warning signs, alongside indicators such as high debt-to-GDP, declining reserves, and political interference, with charts comparing the US to historical cases. 

 

 "Let them eat white bread!"

The Reign of the Orange Ape—certainly one for the history books.

 

The US Dollar System.

 

Reactions split between alarm over a potential dollar squeeze—fueled by China's reduced Treasury holdings and increased gold purchases—and pushback emphasizing the dollar’s unique reserve-currency status and the subjectivity of such models. Markets have reflected the debate, with a weaker dollar coinciding with gains in gold and Bitcoin as concerns persist over the official $40 trillion national debt.

 

You don't grow your way out of debt when 

debt is outrunning growth every single year. 

 

Jerome Powell in February 2024, in a 60 Minutes interview

—and still not arrested... 'cause it's the land of the free.

 

Warsh will inflate the US debt away. It was clear

in February 2026... and it should be clearer now.  

 

Well, that official US national-debt number—$40 trillion—is a straight-up lie. The US government uses accounting rules that would get every CEO and entrepreneur arrested. Unfunded Social Security and Medicare promises over the next 75 years: more than $400 trillion. None of it is on the government's headline balance sheet. A public company would be required to recognize future obligations. Washington simply doesn't. And when promises can't be paid honestly, there's always another way to settle the bill: Create the money. Inflate the currency. Make everyone else pay. The $40 trillion isn't the whole bill. It's the number this giga-corrupt criminal regime in Washington chooses to put on the books—and Americans and the rest of the world are expected to pretend the other $400+ trillion of this Ponzi scheme doesn't exist. Inflation is a tax. Seigniorage is fraud. Americans, make these criminals economic outcasts. 

 

See also:

Karl W. Miller (August 26, 2026) - Global Diesel Breakdown: Energy shock will move through fertilizer into food supply.
Michael Hudson (August 20, 2026) - Why Time Is on Iran, Russia and China's Side.

Alex Krainer (August 18, 2026) - Japan's Yen Collapse Threatens to Drag the US Down With It.

Pepe Escobar (July 30, 2026) - Iran's Methodical Gutting of US Power in West Asia. 

Foad Izadi (July 29, 2026) - "Iran Will Make Sure the US Economy Is Destroyed." .

 

The Imminent Fall of the Eurodollar System | Alex Krainer

During a meeting with technology, crypto, and finance leaders held at the White House yesterday, President Trump brought up the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act) again.

» I know, I know… The idea that the Trump administration is doing anything "legitimate"

may defy imagination by now, but the current arrangement is anything but legitimate. «

 

Trump framed the Act as part of his administration's broader crypto and digital-asset agenda (ending what he called the "war on crypto," launching "Project Crypto," establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and creating a Digital Asset Stockpile):

"One year ago this summer, I signed landmark legislation known as the GENIUS Act. … paving the way for widespread adoption of dollar-backed stablecoins, and that's worked out very well."

Indeed, the Act was already passed last summer, and Trump signed it into law on July 18, 2025, so why all the commotion about it now, more than a year later?

Could be earth-shattering…

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tweeted that the GENIUS Act established a landmark framework and clear rules of the road for payment stablecoins, and that the Treasury is moving quickly to implement that framework, asking for "input from stakeholders" in order to "cement the role of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, and keep America the crypto capital of the world."

The US, via regulated dollar stablecoins and Treasury authority under the GENIUS Act, aims to shut down the unregulated eurodollar market, reclaim control of the dollar's global role, and defund the "rules-based order" and shadow networks, triggering market tremors, surging demand for legitimate dollars, and pressure on non-favored countries such as Britain, the EU, and Canada.

The Act establishes new US federal laws creating a comprehensive regulatory framework for payment stablecoins redeemable for a fixed monetary value (typically $1) and intended to maintain a stable value relative to the "legal tender" currency. It also restricts the issuance of stablecoins to "permitted payment stablecoin issuers," and this is where the GENIUS Act gets extremely interesting.

What GENIUS Is All About…

Speaking at the SALT Conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the former Wall Street executive and prominent advocate for monetary reform Caitlin Long pointed out that the GENIUS Act enables the Treasury Department to define "what is allowed to be a so-called euro-dollar, euro-yen, euro-euro. Or yuan, right?" She continued:

"… the term ‘euro' doesn't mean European. It means a dollar issued offshore outside of the United States … These are tokenized fiat currencies issued outside of their home country, and the US Treasury is taking charge of the recognition of the validity of these. That is massive.

The fact that there are institutions outside of the United States that can issue US currency should be regarded as an illegal aberration. Effectively, they're counterfeiting US dollars, but in spite of that, for some reason, it has been taken as normal for decades now. That's in spite of the fact that counterfeiting US dollars abroad effectively robs the purchasing power of American taxpayers to fund any manner of nefarious activities."

Most likely, that's why this system was allowed to grow to such massive proportions. Caitlin Long again:

"… If you're a student of the financial markets, you know that the eurodollar market is as large as the domestic financial market. That's the offshore dollar market. When the US Treasury is taking control of what is recognized as valid, that is taken from the Fed. … The Treasury is taking power back over the US dollar, over the eurodollar markets, and, frankly, over the US role in the financial system globally from the Fed."

Long made these comments after discussing the GENIUS Act with "someone who just walked out" of a Treasury Department meeting, and if she is right (I believe she certainly is), the implications could be truly earth-shattering. To begin with, disenfranchising the Fed and taking control over the currency from it is the stuff of civil wars.

"To put that into context, when we were talking earlier about how antiquated the traditional system is and that the Fed's systems are themselves behind… If you've been watching, all of the other agencies have issued rules [in accordance with the GENIUS Act]. One glaring exception: the Fed has not issued its rules yet, and according to the GENIUS Act, all of the agencies' rules were supposed to be final a couple of weeks ago. The Fed hasn't even issued theirs yet, so there's this dynamic going on between the Treasury Department and the Fed."

"The dynamic" going on between the Treasury Department and the Fed is a political collision course in which the Treasury is trying to wrest control over the monetary system from the unelected private bankers and return it to the democratically elected government and its legitimate institutions.

I know, I know… The idea that the Trump administration is doing anything "legitimate" may defy imagination by now, but the current arrangement is anything but legitimate. It is also patently unconstitutional: the Constitution of the US explicitly authorizes Congress with the power "To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof…" (Article I, Section 8, Clause 5). The Constitution also gives Congress the power "to provide for the punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States."

 

Contrary to its name, the eurodollar has nothing to do with the European currency. The eurodollar market is an offshore fractional-reserve banking system in which dollar deposits held at banks outside the US are multiplied through interbank lending and book-entry creation, largely free of Fed reserve requirements, to form a vast parallel dollar funding market that ultimately settles via US payment systems.

Eurodollar, Fed, and the Shadow Governments

The counterfeit US dollars circulating abroad are the glue that holds the global "rules-based" order together: they enable the funding needed to bribe foreign officials, pay for and arm the sundry jihadi terror groups and separatist militias. The colossal network of NGOs, charitable organizations, and other groups and activities of shadow governments around the world can't be fully funded through legitimate legal means. These activities often require illegal activities and trillions in embezzled funds.

For example, according to recent reports, billions of dollars have been offered to Iranian officials to sell out and turn Iran over to a government more friendly to the Trump team. In the past, we know that hundreds of millions in US bank notes are routinely smuggled from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, past the US Comptroller of the Currency, to provide funding for coups, assassinations, regime-change operations, and similar "special assignments" by the shadow government.

That is why it should be essential for the US government to regain control of the dollars circulating abroad (or to render those dollars illegitimate and worthless), defunding the "rules-based global order" and reasserting US economic and financial sovereignty. While it would be too optimistic to expect that the Trump administration has pushed the GENIUS Act to achieve any such elevated goals, we should hope that it might leave behind the means needed for American democracy to reassert its economic and financial sovereignty and turn its currency into a tool to recover its prosperity and economic edge.

In the Meantime, Tremors

Given that half or more of all US dollars in circulation around the world are outside the United States, the administration's intended actions (there'll be ambushes; we'll find out) will cause major tremors in world markets, driving demand for "legitimate" dollars and rendering the "illegitimate" ones worthless. This will enable Trump and his team to exert pressure on governments around the world and dictate the terms at which their dollar balances may be converted into new stablecoins needed for trade settlement and reserve requirements.

I expect that Great Britain, the EU, and Canada won't be among the "most favored nations" in the near future, which will further worsen their fiscal positions, make it difficult for them to access global markets and procure commodities like oil, natural gas, wheat, and others. This will lead to shortages and exacerbate inflationary pressures at home.

Reference:

Alex Krainer (August 20, 2026) - The imminent fall of the Eurodollar system.

See also:
Alex Krainer (August 17, 2026) - Japan's Yen Collapse Threatens to Drag the US Down With It.
Martin Armstrong (July 17, 2025) - Trump's GENIUS Act Sets the Stage for US CBDC.

Javier Milei's Chainsaw Massacre of the Trump Presidency? | Alex Krainer

Yesterday, Argentinians voted in midterm elections which were critical as the first nationwide referendum since President Javier Milei came to power and introduced his radical economic reforms. The recent bailout(s) from the US Treasury helped Milei’s La Libertad Avanza Party win the elections with 40.8% of the vote. However, not everyone is convinced: that result was better than even Milei’s own party hoped for.

» To bail out his [Bessent's] dumb friends on Wall Street, that’s banana republic level corruption. «

 

Inevitably, haters will say that the polls were rigged which won’t help the government’s legitimacy. Either way, Argentina will remain stuck in a downward spiral. Milei’s reforms have been so staggeringly successful that keeping Argentina’s economy scotched together required repeated massive rescue packages this year.

First, on 11 April 2025, the IMF approved a $20 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to support Milei’s awesome economic program, strengthen foreign currency reserves, and facilitate the removal of capital controls. The IMF is seldom that generous but it seems that it wasn’t generous enough that time, requiring the Trump administration to step in last month. On 24 September, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced another $20 billion bailout for Argentina.

"El Bobo de Wallstreet"—"The Dumb-Ass of Wall Street".

Under the plan, the US Treasury provided Argentina with US dollars in exchange for Argentine pesos. This raised the awkward question: why did Trump’s MAGA, “America first,” administration put its taxpayers on the hook for Argentina? Bessent said that Argentina was “a systemically important US ally in Latin America,” and that the US “stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table.”

» [Trump] may have to distance himself from Bessent or even sack him. «

 

Well, OK then, but even supposing that Bessent’s justification for the huge bailout of Argentina is good enough, it didn’t seem that the bailout was big enough: the Argentine Peso continued to crash and hit a record low on Friday at nearly 1,490 pesos to the dollar. Before Milei won Argentine presidential elections on 19 November 2023, it took about 360 pesos to buy one dollar. Ever since, Argentina’s currency has been collapsing in spite of the successive IMF/US bailouts:

 

» Either way, Argentina will remain stuck in a downward spiral. «

 

“All options” being “on the table,” on 15 October, weeks after Bessent announced the $20 billion swap, he said that he was arranging a separate $20 billion facility financed by banks and private equity. But for the deal to stick, it may still have to be backed by the US Treasury. A-gain. And in spite of President Trump himself admitting that the bailout might not work and would provide little benefit to the American people. So again: if this is a burden on the American people with no benefit to them, then why is the MAGA administration doing it? [...] As it happens, Rob Citrone is a personal friend and former colleague of Scott Bessent. Here’s what the “Popular Information” newsletter reported earlier this month:

Major Argentine media outlets are now reporting that Citrone asked Bessent for a United States rescue package. Ariel Maciel, Political Economy Editor at Perfil, a large Argentine media outlet, wrote that after the Buenos Aires elections, Citrone “returned to his friend and former colleague… to request a second bailout, this time from the very coffers Bessent manages: the US Treasury.”

CE Noticias Financieras, a major wire service in Latin America, similarly reported that after Argentine officials ran into resistance with lower-level Trump officials, “Citrone managed to connect with Bessent to get him to intervene directly.” But from there, it gets a bit worse than that still: “Maciel also noted that two weeks before Bessent announced the bailout, Citrone purchased additional bonds for “almost nothing.” Maciel said the timing of Citrone’s recent purchases has raised “suspicions” that Citrone had access to “confidential information.”

If true, these arrangements present horribly bad optics for Donald Trump and his administration. If his Treasury Secretary is using his office and American taxpayers’ money to bail out his dumb friends on Wall Street, that’s banana republic level corruption. Any substance of this story will be milked for all it’s worth - and it could be worth a lot - by his political opponents at home and abroad. It doesn’t even matter whether Trump himself was aware of the nature of the bailouts.

Trump may have bought the ideological and geostrategic story about the chainsaw freedom crusader Milei and Argentina being a systemically important ally. In that case, he may have to distance himself from Bessent or even sack him. But even so, the damage has been done. It is hard to see how this won’t undermine the confidence in his administration and further erode his MAGA-base support. On top of that, corrupt dealings with Argentina and Trump’s aggressive stance toward Venezuela, has worsened his administration’s standing in the region:

» Like nobody’s ever seen before. «

The MIGA-MAGA gaga crowds are diminishing, and not only in Argentina.

 

Even if you bring all your carrier strike groups to the Caribbean Sea and threaten action “like nobody’s ever seen before,” the ultimate struggle is and always will be that for the hearts and minds of the people. That struggle is being lost like nobody’s ever seen before.

Quoted from:
Alex Krainer (October 27, 2025) - Milei's chainsaw massacre of Trump presidency?

 

See also:
Alexander Markovics (February 20, 2024) - Javier Milei - Latin America's Prime Golem Zionist.

The ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention | Jim Bianco

It might sound too extreme to even consider, but the idea that President Donald Trump could force some of the US's foreign creditors to swap their Treasuries for "zero-coupon" bonds—in other words, zero-interest bonds that do not mature for a century—in order to lighten the nation’s debt load is being taken seriously by some.

That’s exactly what Jim Bianco guided his clients to discuss after rumors of a so-called "Mar-a-Lago Accord" began to spread. To be clear, Bianco doesn’t anticipate this happening soon, if ever. But in many ways, that’s beside the point. Trump, Bianco said, could very well disrupt the entire global financial system within the next four years, and Wall Street needs to be ready for that.

 A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, Stephen Miran, November 2024.

Bianco, a market veteran with over 30 years of experience and founder of Bianco Research, explained that restructuring America’s debt is part of the Trump administration’s broader plan to overhaul global trade through tariffs, weaken the dollar, and reduce borrowing costs—all with the goal of making US industries more competitive on the world stage. Other pieces of the plan include setting up a sovereign wealth fund (which Trump has already started) and pressuring US allies to contribute more to defense spending.

“You have to start thinking big and you have to start thinking bold about what is going on here. The Mar-a-Lago Accord is not actually a thing, it’s a concept. It is a plan to basically remake some of the financial system.”

The Mar-a-Lago Accord. - Jim Bianco, February 13, 2025.

 

The term “Mar-a-Lago Accord” is a play on the 1985 Plaza Accord and the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement—two major agreements that shaped the modern global economic system, each named after the locations where they were negotiated.

Many of the ideas behind this agenda stem from a November 2024 paper by Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee to lead the White House Council of Economic Advisers. In it, the former Treasury official proposed a strategy for reforming the global trading system and addressing economic imbalances caused by the “persistent dollar overvaluation.” The paper also highlighted that President Trump has long been focused on putting American industries on a fairer playing field globally.

» Everything that President Trump’s administration is doing will be disinflationary. «
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, February 20, 2025.

 

Bianco noted that this vision doesn’t necessarily clash with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement that “the US still has a strong dollar policy.” This is because, while the US may aim for a weaker trade-weighted dollar (which measures the dollar’s value against that of its trading partners) to narrow the trade deficit, financial indicators of the dollar, such as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, could still rise. 

“Stephen Miran and Scott Bessent seem to be kind of singing from the same hymn sheet. The whole idea hopefully is lower the value of the dollar, lower the value of interest rates, bring down the debt burden in the country. And that’s what they’re trying to do.”

» Scott Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of the US deep state. He is the real gladiator behind Trump 2.0,
not Elon Musk. His role will be crucial in keeping the US empire alive. Bessent is extremely intelligent and capable.
Bessent’s capabilities go beyond what most people can imagine. He possesses a deep understanding of monetary, currency,
and financial systems—and, more importantly, he has real-world combat experience in financial warfare. He is a genius.
But like everyone, Bessent also has his flaws. People like him, who are highly capable and self-confident,
often don’t hide their moves or intentions. «

Lu QiYuan, December 8, 2024.

 

Bianco, echoing Miran’s paper, also referenced former Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar, who has long argued for a “Bretton Woods III” overhaul as part of his theory that the dollar will play a less dominant role in global finance in the coming decades. One of Pozsar’s central ideas is that other countries should pay more for the security and stability provided by the US. One potential way to do this is by swapping some of their Treasuries for 100-year, non-tradable zero-coupon bonds. If these nations needed immediate access to funds, the Federal Reserve could make it temporarily available to them via a lending facility.

Bianco emphasized that such a debt swap may never actually happen, and if it were pursued, it would require extensive international cooperation and could potentially destabilize the global financial system. However, bond markets have shown little concern so far, with Treasury trading remaining relatively calm in recent days. Still, Bianco’s point in discussing these ideas with his clients is to highlight the magnitude of the potential changes ahead.

“Take them seriously, don’t take it literally. If Trump is willing to blow up NATO, why wouldn’t he be willing to blow up the financial system?”

Reference:

Thierry Meyssan (March 12, 2025) - Trump Managing the Collapse of the American Empire.

Torsten Sløk (March 9, 2025) - What Is the Mar-a-Lago Accord?

Bloomberg (February 28, 2025) - Here's Why 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' Chatter Has Everyone's Attention. (podcast) 

Jim Bianco (February 13, 2025) - The Mar-a-Lago Accord. (podcast).

Stephen Miran (November 2024) - A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System.

Lu QiYuan (December 8, 2024) - Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0.

Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction | Martin Armstrong

The year 2025 marks a critical turning point, with a global economic crisis on the horizon. Our computer models predict a major downturn, particularly in Europe, and a prolonged US recession extending into 2028. This crisis stems from long-term mismanagement by central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, which kept interest rates too low for too long, forcing banks to hold risky government debt. While analysts focus on short-term rates, the Fed has little control over long-term rates, which continue to rise despite rate cuts. Tensions in Europe, including the threat of World War III, are exacerbating this issue and pushing rates even higher.

» While financial elites are aware of the looming collapse, everyday people will feel its full force. «

The rise in long-term rates reflects a loss of confidence in government debt. For instance, corporate bonds in France are now offering better returns than government bonds, and even Greece's debt is becoming more attractive. This points to systemic weaknesses within European governments. Meanwhile, the US faces its own dilemma: raising rates to combat inflation only makes its national debt more expensive. As the world's largest borrower, higher rates simply add to the debt burden rather than reducing spending. This crisis underscores the failure of Keynesian economics, which Paul Volcker acknowledged in 1979. Today, the US government borrows far more than in the past, and raising interest rates does little to curb spending—it only adds to the debt.

The financial system is now in deep trouble, and the average person will bear the consequences. Europe is headed for a depression, and the US is facing a severe recession. Unemployment will rise, wages will shrink, and basic goods will become more expensive. The gap between the rich and poor will widen, and financial instability will increase. A sovereign debt default in Europe by 2025 is likely to trigger a broader collapse, with massive financial instability by 2026-2027. Many banks and pension funds are heavily invested in government debt, and a default could lead to the disintegration of European financial systems. Insiders are very much aware of the crisis and fear that public panic could worsen the situation, potentially triggering bank runs. While not all banks are equally at risk, poor management and political interference in banking have worsened the problem. The Federal Reserve, designed to act as a backstop for failing banks, may be overwhelmed by the scale of the crisis.

 

The impact on ordinary Americans will be severe, with rising unemployment, shrinking wages, and higher living costs. While financial elites are aware of the looming collapse, everyday people will feel its full force. The US government’s failure to roll over its debt could spark a chain reaction, causing widespread bank failures. The interconnectedness of the banking system means one collapse could trigger a broader financial breakdown. Cash will become essential, as digital transactions and credit systems may fail, as seen in previous disruptions like the Canadian trucker protests.

I strongly recommend preparing for this crisis by having physical cash and at least two years' worth of food stored. The collapse of the financial system will lead to widespread losses in banks and pension funds, and the government and central banks will be unable to protect everyone. Those who are unprepared will suffer the most.

 November 2024: A Norwegian task force has advised against the immediate adoption of a central 

bank digital currency, while South Korea has launched a CBDC pilot with seven major banks.

As the debt crisis worsens, geopolitical instability will exacerbate inflation and push capital into the US as a safe haven. The dollar will strengthen, and sectors like gold, food, and bonds will see increased investment. However, emerging markets with high foreign-denominated debt, such as Brazil, will be particularly vulnerable to financial crises.

I also caution against the growing threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which would grant governments unprecedented control over personal finances. The rise of gold as a long-term safe haven, coupled with rising long-term interest rates, will create significant risks for those holding variable-rate debt. People should prepare by securing tangible assets like cash, food, and gold, and locking in fixed-rate debt where possible. The coming crisis is inevitable, and those who prepare will have the best chance of weathering the storm.

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (December 21, 2024) - Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction in 2025. (video)

 

See also:

TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

Lu QiYuan (December 8, 2024) - Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0.  

 Martin Armstrong (June 21, 2024) - Final Days of the Empire. (video)

L. David Linsky (2023) - War and or Revolution in 2026. The 84 Year War Cycle.

Bojan S. Dimitrijević et al. (2016) - Sunspots and Stock Markets: Evidence of their Interdependence in Transition Countries.

Mikhail Gorbanev (2012) - Sunspots, Unemployment, and Recessions: Can the Solar Activity Cycle shape the Business Cycle?

Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0 | Lu QiYuan

Many people believe Trump 2.0 will be a 'peaceful' presidency, but I think they are mistaken. If war becomes the best option to overcome the US crisis, Donald Trump will not shy away from further conflict. Trump and his team are determined to maintain US dominance on the global stage as an empire—nothing has changed in that regard. While some may hope for the decline of the US empire, and I can understand that sentiment, the following isn't about whether the US should or shouldn't remain an empire. It's about how the Trump 2.0 administration is attempting to salvage the situation.

 

 Lu QiYuan, Geopolitical Economist.

Through Elon Musk, Trump will aim to reform and abolish much of the federal bureaucracy, including challenging some of the core interests of the military-industrial complex. If he succeeds, it could shatter the entire establishment system, including the massive oligarchy operating behind it, particularly in the pharmaceutical and military sectors. However, the question remains: Can Elon Musk and his new department, DOGE, accomplish this goal? Honestly, I don't think he can. To make America great again (MAGA), there are three things the United States and its leadership must avoid:

• The collapse of the US military: To prevent the US military from collapsing, significant reform is necessary. As it stands, the US military is only capable of operating at the battalion level and is no longer able to challenge a major power in large-scale conventional warfare. While US combat tactics and intelligence networks remain the best in the world, the country’s conventional forces—including the Army, Navy, and Air Force—are falling behind. The US still holds an upper hand over smaller or medium-sized countries, but in conventional warfare with a major power, the military would stand little chance. If this situation persists for another five years, the US will be unable to challenge even medium-sized nations. The military’s strength today lies in special forces, covert operations, and tactics like assassination—but in terms of large-scale warfare, as seen in Ukraine, the US is no longer capable of handling such conflicts. This is a serious issue. The US military cannot collapse; it is a basic requirement for maintaining a global hegemonic empire. Over time, parts of the military have been privatized, but these private forces are unlikely to match the capabilities of groups like Russia’s Wagner, and their loyalty could be questionable. This privatization has left the US military in a fragile state.
• The collapse of the US dollar: To stabilize the US dollar, the US must address its looming debt crisis and budget deficit. At $40 trillion in federal debt, the US is approaching a dangerous threshold—a breaking point after which the dollar could face a severe collapse. This wouldn't necessarily mean a collapse against other currencies, but rather a collapse in value relative to assets like Bitcoin, gold, or other key commodities. This is a critical issue that cannot be postponed. The US needs to begin addressing this problem by 2025 and show clear results by 2026.
• The collapse of US capital markets: The US capital market is a key pillar supporting the US empire. To prevent its collapse, the US must achieve a degree of reindustrialization. Currently, the capital market is one of the few remaining supports for the US dollar itself.

But let’s now turn to Scott Bessent, whom Trump has chosen as his Treasury Secretary. To me, Bessent is the real gladiator behind Trump 2.0, not Elon Musk. I believe Bessent is one of the most important members of Trump’s Cabinet, and his role will be crucial in keeping the US empire alive. So, when Scott Bessent enters the Trump Cabinet, we can be sure that Trump’s ultimate support still comes from the same old force, because Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of the US establishment deep state.

 

» Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of the US deep state. «

 

Bessent is extremely intelligent and capable. Many are confused about George Soros' financial attacks around the world, including his famous campaign against the British pound in 1997. The truth is, it wasn’t Soros who was the main architect behind that; it was Bessent. Soros became famous because of Bessent, not the other way around. Bessent’s capabilities go beyond what most people can imagine. He possesses a deep understanding of monetary, currency, and financial systems—and, more importantly, he has real-world combat experience in financial warfare. He is a genius. But like everyone, Bessent also has his flaws. People like him, who are highly capable and self-confident, often don’t hide their moves or intentions. He has outlined the following four main goals for the Trump 2.0 administration:

1. The US budget deficit must remain within 3%.  
2. The US GDP growth must exceed 3%.  
3. The US crude oil production must increase by 3 million barrels per day.

4. The US must turn Mexico into an economic vassal to replace China in their supply chain.

Let me offer my prediction: In terms of US debt control, Scott Bessent suggests that the federal deficit needs to be limited to around $1 trillion for fiscal year 2025. This is nearly an impossible task. According to my calculations, US debt will reach $40 trillion by the end of the third quarter of 2025. Achieving this goal would require drastic cuts to federal spending, and I don’t believe Elon Musk has the ability to accomplish that. The US federal government simply won’t be able to generate enough revenue in time to cover the deficit. If the goal is to increase state revenue, the only way would be to militarize the entire country—which is not only nearly impossible, but something I would strongly advise against.

As for the 3% annual GDP growth goal: I believe it is achievable. Given Bessent’s capabilities, I think he could reach this target by maintaining a capital accumulation rate above 6%.

 

» You know what I did? I left troops in Syria to take the oil. I took the oil. «
Donald Trump in a January 2020 interview on Fox News.

Now, let’s focus on the goal of increasing crude oil production by 3 million barrels per day in the US: This is one of the clearest indicators of Trump 2.0’s strategy. But why 3 million barrels? Why this specific number? This is not a random figure. Do you know how much OPEC is reducing its production? Exactly 3 million barrels. Saudi Arabia has cut production by 1 million barrels, Russia by nearly 1 million barrels, and the remaining reductions add up to roughly 3 million barrels. So, while OPEC is cutting production by 3 million barrels, the US is increasing its production by the same amount.

Do you think Scott Bessent wants oil prices to fall? To crash? Maybe down to $20 a barrel? Do you think the energy giants would be happy with that? No, they would be furious because the cost of production in the US is around $30 a barrel. Do you think Bessent hasn’t thought about this? Of course, he has. He likely predicts, just as I do, that oil prices could rise to $150 a barrel. That’s why I said Bessent shouldn’t have made these statements public—they act as a warning signal about a potential US military operation. It suggests that the US might be preparing to take action against Iran and, in doing so, potentially shut down the entire Persian Gulf. That’s why Bessent wants to increase US crude oil production by 3 million barrels.

 

 

» When I left in 2021, Venezuela was ready to collapse. We would have taken it over. 

We would have gotten all that oil. It would have been right next door. But now we're buying it. «

Donald Trump, June 10, 2023.

For those who don’t understand the logic behind this, there’s a fundamental principle of supply and demand in the oil market: When OPEC reduces production, it typically signals a slight decrease in demand. However, when supply drops dramatically—such as due to war—prices can skyrocket, often exponentially rather than linearly. The US, as one of the few remaining major oil producers, stands to benefit from a major conflict in the Persian Gulf. With countries like Russia and Venezuela under heavy sanctions, the US could potentially monopolize oil prices, using this leverage to strengthen the US dollar against other currencies. This is essentially the same strategy the US employed in the Ukraine conflict, where by provoking the war and cutting off Russia’s energy supply to Europe, the US launched an attack on both the euro and the ruble.

 

 » Mexico is gonna have to straighten it out really fast, or the answer is absolutely. «

Donald Trump, November 25, 2024.

Scott Bessent, normally an extremely capable strategist, shouldn’t have revealed these goals so early, as doing so gives countries like China the chance to prepare and implement countermeasures. His statements now serve as a warning signal to world leaders about what’s to come and suggest that it is less likely the US will directly provoke a proxy war targeting China. During the anticipated surge in oil prices, the US could successfully collapse the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound, helping Scott Bessent achieve his goal. 

 

 

» Trump suggested missile strikes into Mexico against drug cartels. «
Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense in the first Trump administration, May 6, 2022.

On top of that, there's an additional strategy: The US could swiftly vassalize Mexico, rapidly industrialize it, and use it to complete a North American internal economic circulation. This would be the only way the US could successfully reindustrialize. Essentially, the US would turn Mexico into an economic vassal, replacing China in its supply chain. In fact, the most direct and simplest way for the US to reindustrialize would be to militarily occupy Mexico and use it as a substitute for China in its economic system.

Reference:
Awakening Richard (December 6, 2024) - Top Chinese Economist Exposes US Secret Plan. (video)

 

See also:

Pepe Escobar (November 28, 2024) - Trump’s Coming War on BRICS and the Global South.

Dmitry Skvortsov (November 25, 2024) - Trump's Plan to Ruin China.

 Francisco José Fernández-Cruz Sequera (October 30, 2024) - Global MAGA-nomics.

 Serge Bernard (2015) - From Conquest to Affluence to Collapse: The 250 Year Empire Life Cycle.