Thursday, November 28, 2024

Trump’s Coming War on BRICS and the Global South | Pepe Escobar

The incoming Trump 2.0 administration is expected to intensify US economic and geopolitical strategies against BRICS and their growing global network. Trump's actions will likely resemble earlier colonial approaches, involving covert operations, military pressure, and economic incentives to undermine BRICS and protect US dominance over global resources such as oil and rare earth minerals. The goal is to prevent the new, multipolar world order that reduces US dominance. Driven by economic imperatives, this will shape US-BRICS relations and have significant implications for the entire Global South. 

of Venezuela and Bolivia and seize control of their oil and lithium.
 
One of the major risks of a Trump 2.0 administration will be the attempt to destabilize the growing connectivity corridors across Eurasia, which are crucial for the strategic partnerships between Russia, China, India, and Iran. These corridors are part of two key axes: a horizontal one spanning across the Heartland from China to the West, including Central Asia, West Asia, and potentially extending to Europe (BRI), and a North-South axis connecting Russia, Iran, and India through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This development is critical to Eurasian integration. As the United States observes these emerging networks, it sees its influence in Eurasia waning, particularly as BRICS and associated countries assert themselves. In the long term, this shift threatens America's dominance not only in Eurasia but also in Africa. Latin America remains more complex due to many entrenched regimes and comprador elites that support US interests. Overall, this represents a broader bipartisan struggle in Washington against the integration of Eurasia and the Global South, undermining the unipolar world order the US has historically maintained.

 
In Latin America, Venezuela, aligned with China and Russia, remains a critical point of contention. The US is expected to increase sanctions and covert actions to oust the Maduro government. Bolivia, rich in lithium, will be treated in a similar fashion. Brazil, despite a moderate government, remains central to the US in order to limit BRICS' influence. However, in Latin America, US attempts at color revolutions, maximum pressure sanctions, hybrid war of all sorts, and the fabrication of puppet leaders like Juan Guaidó have proven less and less successful, and Russia and China won’t allow Venezuela to be subverted by Marco Rubio, his cohorts in South Florida, the State Department, or anyone else. 
 
Saudi Arabia's shift toward full BRICS membership could mark a major change in global financial power. Trump will likely apply diplomatic pressure or sanctions to prevent this, as US influence over oil markets is also at stake. Africa will see intensified efforts to counter mainly China's and Russia’s investments in infrastructure and energy. Also here, Trump will likely increase sanctions and support instability to prevent further integration between African nations and BRICS. 
 
Trump’s approach to BRICS contrasts with Biden’s, as Trump is driven by economic dominance. His administration will aim to sanction any country bypassing the US dollar in trade, targeting the de-dollarization trend supported by BRICS. The de-dollarization movement, gaining momentum, challenges US financial hegemony, with BRICS countries increasingly using national currencies and the Petroyuan, and are exploring alternative payment systems.