Trump’s Coming War on BRICS and the Global South | Pepe Escobar

The incoming Trump 2.0 administration is expected to intensify US economic and geopolitical strategies against BRICS and their growing global network. Trump's actions will likely resemble earlier colonial approaches, involving covert regime-change operations, military pressure and intervention, and economic incentives to undermine BRICS and protect US control over resources such as oil and rare earth minerals. The goal is to prevent the new, multipolar world order that reduces US hegemony. This will shape US-BRICS relations and have significant implications for the entire Global South. 

 

Trump's swampy 'realist' approach to international relations contrasts with Biden's 'liberal' approach, primarily in that Trump openly defines the national interest as global, full-spectrum American military and economic dominance, asserting that all wars, sanctions, tariffs, and 'great deals' benefiting his donor class and billionaire peers would also be acceptable to his MAGA crowd of 'hard-working Americans.'  

 

 Goodbye, America. The cheating game of YOU counterfeiters is over.

His administration will aim to sanction any country bypassing the US dollar in trade, targeting the de-dollarization trend supported by BRICS. The de-dollarization movement, gaining momentum, challenges US financial dominance, with BRICS countries increasingly using national currencies and the Petroyuan, and exploring alternative payment systems. 

Marco Rubio will attempt to overthrow the governments

of Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia and seize control of their resources.

 

One of the major risks of a Trump 2.0 administration will be the attempt to destabilize the growing connectivity corridors across Eurasia, which are crucial for the strategic partnerships between Russia, China, India, and Iran. These corridors are part of two key axes: a horizontal one spanning across the Heartland from China to the West, including Central Asia, West Asia, and potentially extending to Europe (BRI), and a North-South axis connecting Russia, Iran, and India through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This development is critical to Eurasian integration. 

 

» We will coup whoever we want! Deal with it. «

 

As the United States observes these emerging networks, and it sees its influence in Eurasia waning, particularly as BRICS and associated countries assert themselves. In the long term, this shift threatens America's presence and influence, not only in Eurasia but also in Africa. Africa and Latin America remain more complex due to entrenched regimes and comprador elites that support US interests. Overall, this represents a broader bipartisan struggle by Washington against the integration of Eurasia and the Global South, which undermines the unipolar world order that the US has historically maintained.

Trump’s Coming War on BRICS — Pepe Escobar, November 28, 2024.

 

In Latin America, Venezuela, a quasi BRICS country, economically aligned with China, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran, remains a major obsession for the US, which is expected to escalate sanctions and covert actions to oust the Maduro government in order to gain access to the world's largest reserves of hydrocarbons, to gold, bauxite, iron ore, uranium, diamonds, and rare earth elements. Bolivia, which has the world's largest lithium reserves and is rich in natural gas, tin, silver, and copper, will be treated in a similar fashion by the US. Washington think tanks still consider Brazil a 'swing state,' and controlling the policies of South America's industrial giant remains central to US efforts to limit and sabotage BRICS in the region.

 

 Spotted in Caracas, October 2024.

 

However, in recent years, US attempts at assassinations, regime change, maximum pressure sanctions, hybrid wars of all sorts, and the installation of puppet leaders like Jeanine Áñez, Juan Guaidó, María Corina Machado, and Edmundo González have become increasingly unsuccessful (with Javier Milei or Daniel Noboa appearing more as temporary exceptions). And China, Russia, and Iran will not simply allow Venezuela being looted by Trump, Musk, Rubio, Prince, and other swamp creatures from South Florida.

 

» Facts have proven that the US is the biggest source of chaos in the international system [...] From Afghanistan to Iraq, 

from Ukraine to Gaza, all these crises and conflicts are the result of the self-serving double standards of the US. « 

— Jing Jianfeng, Lieutenant General of China’s People’s Liberation Army, Singapore, June 16, 2024.

 

Saudi Arabia's shift toward full BRICS membership would mark a major change in global financial power. Trump will likely apply diplomatic pressure or sanctions such as asset-freezing to prevent this, as US influence over global oil markets is already diminishing rapidly. Africa will see intensified efforts to counter mainly China’s and Russia’s investments in infrastructure and energy. Also, Trump will likely increase sanctions and, eventually, together with the French and the British, support destabilization, e.g., by terrorist jihadis, as well as blackmail, assassination, and regime-change tactics to prevent further integration of African nations with BRICS.

 

» The US is at war with the rest of the world [...] the war in Syria is a microcosm of World War 3  through proxies. «
— Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, November 28, 2024.

 

See also:
Dmitry Skvortsov (November 25, 2024) - Trump's Plan to Ruin China.

 Scott Ritter (November 3, 2024) - The United States Exists for War.

Martin Armstrong (October 31, 2024) - BRICS Will Not Kill the Dollar—War Will.

Francisco José Fernández-Cruz Sequera (October 30, 2024) - Global MAGA-nomics. 

Jin Canrong (October 3, 2024) - The US-China Competition in Southeast Asia.
Viktor Orbán (August 28, 2024) - Facing Global System Change.

MFA of the People's Republic of China (February 20, 2023) - The US' Military Hegemony: Wanton Use of Force.

Wishing Comrade Trump a Speedy Recovery | Pepe Escobar

Comrade Trump is making an absolute killing on Chinese social media. Trump is all over the place on Weibo - zillions of trending hashtags, some with over 450 million views, and a non-stop meme machine. On Chinese social media, Trump is widely known as “Comrade Jianguo” (建国同志  —  Comrade Build-Country). This nickname has been in effect for years. “Build the Country Trump” (Chuān Jiànguó —  川建国) usually translates as “Making China Great Again” - as in whatever he does, China ultimately profits.

  » May he continue to work hard for the ultimate mission entrusted to him by the Party. «

It’s a fascinating process: over the years, the avalanche of playful Trump nicknames actually reflect a blend of mockery and affection. On Weibo, the iconic “fist” pic has been edited in all sorts of ways, for instance depicting Trump as a Communist champ with the caption: “Workers of the world, unite!” (全世界无产者联合起来). And what about this Weibo comment: “I wish Comrade Jianguo a speedy recovery, may he continue to work hard for the ultimate mission entrusted to him by the Party.”

Pepe Escobar - July 14, 2024

 

The Defeat of the West │ Emmanuel Todd

Emmanuel Todd, historian, demographer, anthropologist, sociologist and political analyst, is part of a dying breed: one of the very few remaining exponents of old school French intelligentzia. Todd was the first Western intellectual, already in 1976, to have predicted the fall of the USSR in his book La Chute Finale (The Final Fall), with his research based on Soviet infant mortality rates [...] The first nugget concerning his latest book, La Défaite de l’Occident (The Defeat of the West) is the minor miracle of actually being published last week in France, right within the NATO sphere: a hand grenade of a book, by an independent thinker, based on facts and verified data, blowing up the whole Russophobia edifice erected around the 'aggression' by 'Tsar' Putin.

 

Behemoth, the land monster (land forces), and Leviathan, the sea monster (sea forces), killing each other.

Engraving by William Blake (1757–1827).

Todd focuses on the key reasons that have led to the West’s downfall. Among them: the end of the nation-state; de-industrialization (which explains NATO’s deficit in producing weapons for Ukraine); the “degree zero” of the West’s religious matrix, Protestantism; the sharp increase of mortality rates in the US (much higher than in Russia), along with suicides and homicides; and the supremacy of an imperial nihilism expressed by the obsession with Forever Wars. Todd methodically analyses, in sequence, Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Germany, Britain, Scandinavia and finally The Empire. Let’s focus on what would be the 12 Greatest Hits of his remarkable exercise:

1. At the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in February 2022, the combined GDP of Russia and Belarus was only 3.3% of the combined West (in this case the NATO sphere plus Japan and South Korea). Todd is amazed how these 3.3% capable of producing more weapons than the whole Western colossus not only are winning the war but reducing dominant notions of the “neoliberal political economy” to shambles.
2. The “ideological solitude” and “ideological narcissism” of the West – incapable of understanding, for instance, how “the whole Muslim world seems to consider Russia as a partner rather than an adversary”.
3. Todd eschews the notion of “Weberian states” – evoking a delicious compatibility of vision between Putin and US realpolitik practitioner John Mearsheimer. Because they are forced to survive in an environment where only power relations matters, states are now acting as “Hobbesian agents.” And that brings us to the Russian notion of a nation-state, focused on “sovereignty”: the capacity of a state to independently define its internal and external policies, with no foreign interference whatsoever.
4. The implosion, step by step, of WASP culture, which led, “since the 1960s”, to “an empire deprived of a center and a project, an essentially military organism managed by a group without culture (in the anthropological sense)”. This is Todd defining the US neocons.
5. The US as a “post-imperial” entity: just a shell of military machinery deprived of an intelligence-driven culture, leading to “accentuated military expansion in a phase of massive contraction of its industrial base”. As Todd stresses, “modern war without industry is an oxymoron”.
6. The demographic trap: Todd shows how Washington strategists “forgot that a state whose population enjoys a high educational and technological level, even if it is decreasing, does not lose its military power”. That’s exactly the case of Russia during the Putin years.
7. Here we reach the crux of Todd’s argument: his post-Max Weber reinterpretation of The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, published a little over a century ago, in 1904/1905: “If Protestantism was the matrix for the ascension of the West, its death, today, is the cause of the disintegration and defeat.” Todd clearly defines how the 1688 English 'Glorious Revolution', the 1776 American Declaration of Independence and the 1789 French Revolution were the true pillars of the liberal West. Consequently, an expanded 'West' is not historically 'liberal', because it also engineered “Italian fascism, German Nazism and Japanese militarism”. In a nutshell, Todd shows how Protestantism imposed universal literacy on the populations it controlled, “because all faithful must directly access the Holy Scriptures. A literate population is capable of economic and technological development. The Protestant religion modeled, by accident, a superior, efficient workforce.” And it is in this sense that Germany was “at the heart of Western development”, even if the Industrial Revolution took place in England. Todd’s key formulation is undisputable: “The crucial factor of the ascension of the West was Protestantism’s attachment to alphabetization.” Moreover Protestantism, Todd stresses, is twice at the heart of the history of the West: via the educational and economic drive - with fear of damnation and the need to feel chosen by God engendering a work ethic and a strong, collective morality - and via the idea that Men are unequal (remember the White Man’s Burden). The collapse of Protestantism could not but destroy the work ethic to the benefit of mass greed: that is, neoliberalism.
8. Todd’s sharp critique of the spirit of 1968 would merit a whole new book. He refers to “one of the great illusions of the 1960s – between Anglo-American sexual revolution and May 68 in France”; “to believe that the individual would be greater if freed from the collective”. That led to an inevitable debacle: “Now that we are free, en masse, from metaphysical beliefs, foundational and derived, communist, socialist or nationalist, we live the experience of the void.” And that’s how we became “a multitude of mimetic midgets who do not dare to think by themselves – but reveal themselves as capable of intolerance as the believers of ancient times.”
9. Todd’s brief analysis of the deeper meaning of transgenderism completely shatters the Church of Woke – from New York to the EU sphere, and will provoke serial fits of rage. He shows how transgenderism is “one of the flags of this nihilism that now defines the West, this drive to destroy, not just things and humans but reality.” And there’s an added analytical bonus: “The transgender ideology says that a man may become a woman, and a woman may become a man. This is a false affirmation, and in this sense, close to the theoretical heart of Western nihilism.” It gets worse, when it comes to the geopolitical ramifications. Todd establishes a playful mental and social connection between this cult of the fake and the Hegemon’s wobbly behavior in international relations. Example: the Iranian nuclear deal clinched under Obama becoming a hardcore sanctions regime under Trump. Todd: “American foreign policy is, in its own way, gender fluid.”
10. Europe’s “assisted suicide”. Todd reminds us how Europe at the start was the Franco-German couple. Then after the 2007/2008 financial crisis, that turned into “a patriarchic marriage, with Germany as a dominant spouse not listening to his companion anymore”. The EU abandoned any pretention of defending Europe’s interests - cutting itself off from energy and trade with its partner Russia and sanctioning itself. Todd identifies, correctly, the Paris-Berlin axis replaced by the London-Warsaw-Kiev axis: that was “the end of Europe as an autonomous geopolitical actor”. And that happened only 20 years after the joint opposition by France-Germany to the neocon war on Iraq.
11. Todd correctly defines NATO by plunging into “their unconscious”: “We note that its military, ideological and psychological mechanism does not exist to protect Western Europe, but to control it.”
12. In tandem with several analysts in Russia, China, Iran and among independents in Europe, Todd is sure that the US obsession – since the 1990s - to cut off Germany from Russia will lead to failure: “Sooner or later, they will collaborate”, as “their economic specializations define them as complementary”. The defeat in Ukraine will open the path, as a “gravitational force” reciprocally seduces Germany and Russia.

[...] Whatever the deadline, inbuilt in all this is a total Russia victory – with the winner dictating all terms. No negotiations, no ceasefire, no frozen conflict – as the Hegemon is now desperate spinning.

Quoted from:
Pepe Escobar (January 18, 2024) - How the West Was Defeated.

 

 

See also:
Emmanuel Todd (January 11, 2024) - La Défaite de l'Occident. 

 Serge Bernard (2016) - From Conquest To Affluence To Collapse: The 250 Year Empire Life Cycle.

John Mearsheimer (2001) - The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.

William Strauss & Neil Howe (1997) - The Fourth Turning.  

 Alexander Dugin (1997) - Foundations of Geopolitics.

Samuel P. Huntington (1993) - The Clash of Civilizations.

John Bagot Glubb (1978) - The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival.

Carl Schmitt (1942) - Land and Sea: A World-Historical Meditation. 

War And Epochal Global Shift │ Pepe Escobar

  

Reshuffling the inner and the outer rim-lands of the world-island.
All of Halford Mackinder's geopolitical nightmares becoming tangible realities not only in Greater Eurasia
but across all lands still governed by the evaporating Western world order.
The petrodollar monetary system died just lately.

Brazilian geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar breaks down the epochal implications of the ongoing military conflicts in Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine; he explains the roles and missions of Russia, Iran and China and their leaders; he discusses the rise of Greater Eurasia under the alliance of the three main Eurasian powers; he reports on the drastic and unexpected swift collapse of the Western world order, civilization and hegemony over West Asia due to the waning influence of US neocons as well as due to fundamental US economic, strategic, diplomatic and military failures during the past three decades. The West's former proxy rulers in the Muslim world are shaking in fear. The widely detested opportunists they are, they now all changed sides. 

» The divine providence and mission of Russian President Vladimir Putin as God's chosen instrument and second Dhu al-Qarnayn,
the just conqueror,  lawgiver and savior of the Christian orthodox world and the world of Islam. «

Reference:
Pepe Escobar (Nov 26, 2023) - Gaza changes everything as Russia, China Confront Neocon Agenda for Middle East. (video)

Independent Islamic Republic (Dec 09, 2023) - Putin will establish the final world order for end times

- 2nd age of Dhul Qarnayn begins! (video)

Breakup Of European Union And NATO Inevitable | Andrei Martyanov

Immediately after the end of the Special Military Operation, the West will not be able to fight with us. It does not have a trained army, it will not accumulate the required amount of resources, it has no plans for war with Russia. It only has scraps of speculation and guesswork. 

 

Mission accomplished.

These three factors make war with NATO unlikely. It is clear that the United States can push the Europeans to take crazy steps. But on the economic and diplomatic front we have specialists who will try to keep them from doing this. And the New World Order will lead to processes that will lead to a split in the European Union and NATO. If we break through a land corridor to Hungary, then Serbia will be magnetized to this axis. And it can be followed by Slovakia and Romania, where very interesting processes are taking place. Eastern Europe will begin to break away from old Europe, which will be severely depressed due to the economic situation. After all, Europe is defeated not only on the eastern front, but also in the global south (it is not so simple with China).

Consider this: Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia have a combined population of roughly 42 million. This is substantial, it is also a promising market - make your own conclusion. Russia doesn't need love or obedience, Russia is interested in trade with people who still recognize that there are only two genders. Simple as that. Once the land bridge is built, European structure changes dramatically. Old Europe can go and die.

Quoted from:
Andrei Martyanov (Nov 12, 2023) in a conversation with Pepe Escobar on Telegram. 

 KyivPost - Ukraine's Global Voice (Nov 20, 2023)

» Vladimir Putin is waging war against Ukraine and he will next attack Europe «, 

says Andrei Illarionov, formerly a Senior Policy Adviser during Putin's early period as President.

Illarionov recollects how it was to work with Putin and explains what the West must do, now, if it wishes for peace in the West. 

» We cannot waste time in supporting Ukraine so that Putin's madness is stopped. «

The Return of the Heartland | Pepe Escobar

Pepe Escobar (Aug 24, 2022) - Putin himself first spelled it out at the Munich Security Conference in 2007. Xi Jinping started to make it happen when he launched the New Silk Roads in 2013. The Empire struck back with Maidan in 2014. Russia counter-attacked coming to the aid of Syria in 2015. The Empire doubled down on Ukraine, with NATO weaponizing it non-stop for eight years. At the end of 2021, Moscow invited Washington for a serious dialogue on “indivisibility of security” in Europe. That was dismissed with a non-response response. Moscow took no time to confirm a trifecta was in the works: an imminent Kiev blitzkrieg against Donbass; Ukraine flirting with acquiring nuclear weapons; and the work of US bioweapon labs.

The heart of Europe is Germany, the heart of Asia is China, and the heart of Eurasia is Russia. In his famous article The Continental Bloc:
Berlin-Moscow-Tokyo, published in 1941, German geographer Karl Haushofer wrote: "Eurasia cannot be suffocated while its two largest
people, the Germans and the Russians, strive in every way to avoid internecine conflict: it is an axiom of European politics."

[...] What Moscow is doing is talking to virtually the whole Global South, bilaterally or to groups of actors, explaining how the world-system is changing right before our eyes, with the key actors of the future configured as BRI, SCO, EAEU, BRICS+, the Greater Eurasia Partnership. And what we see is vast swathes of the Global South – or 85% of the world’s population – slowly but surely becoming ready to engage in expelling the FIRE Mafia (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate as per Michael Hudson) from their national horizons, and ultimately taking them down: a long, tortuous battle that will imply multiple setbacks.

 

"The New World Order is a battle for the meaning of the end of history. The great philosophical battle. It is time to close the page of exclusively
materialistic, energy and economic interpretations - this is not just vulgar, it is wrong. History is the history of ideas." Alexander Dugin, 2022

[...] The Global South though should never lose sight of the “Empire business”. The Empire of Lies excels in producing chaos and plunder, always supported by extortion, bribery of comprador elites, assassinations [...] Never underestimate a bitter, wounded, deeply humiliated Declining Empire. So fasten your seat belts: that will be the tense dynamic all the way to the 2030s. But before that, all along the watchtower, get ready for the arrival of General Winter, as his riders are fast approaching, the wind will begin to howl, and Europe will be freezing in the dead of a dark night as the FIRE Mafia puff their cigars.

Quoted from:
Pepe Escobar (Aug 24, 2022) - Geopolitical Tectonic Plates Shifting, Six Months On

See also:

 The Duran (Aug 21, 2022) - Discussing Ukraine. Glenn Diesen interviews Scott Ritter and Alexander Mercouris

Alexander Dugin (2019) - Multipolarity, Unipolarity, Hegemony - Theories and Concepts

Alba Popescu (2017) - The Theory of Global Domination - Russian Geo-Strategy Conceptual Framework on the Black Sea Region

TPR (2018) - Greater Eurasia: Russia’s New Energy Gamble  

TPR (2016) - One Belt, One Road: Eurasian Century Unstoppable