Showing posts with label Presidential Cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Presidential Cycle. Show all posts

Monday, December 1, 2025

2026 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Patterns by Political Party | Robert Miner

The Midterm Election Year typically performs the worst in the four-year election cycle. The chart below illustrates the average Midterm Election Year performance of the S&P 500 since 1950, categorized by first-term political party (1st Term Democrats, 1st Term Republicans):

Winter High – Summer Low –  Bull into Year-End.
First week of January: Major high (around +0.5%)
Second week of February: Major low (around -4%)
Mid-April: Major high (around +3%)
First week of August: Major low (around -6%)
Last week of 2026: Major high (around +8%)
Net Long-term Average of Midterm Election Year Performance under 1st-Term Republicans: +3%.
 
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Thursday, October 2, 2025

Unlocking the "Years-Ending-in-5" Market Signal | Jake Bernstein

One of the most reliable patterns I’ve observed in markets appears in years ending in the number five. It is simple: take the January high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above that high, history shows a strong rally often follows into early December or even year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant.

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite Future chart for the S&P 500 from 1942 to 2024.

Looking back, the results are striking. In 1995, the trigger led to a more than twenty percent advance. 1985 produced roughly fifteen percent, 1975 seven to ten percent, and even 1965, after a brief pullback, ended higher by about five percent. Earlier examples include 1955 with fifteen percent, and 1935 and 1945 each with nearly thirty percent rallies. Not every “five” year triggers the setup—as in 2005 and 2015—but when it does, the outcome has consistently favored the bulls.

 Dow Jones (monthly bars), 2025.
» If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above the January high, history shows a strong rally often follows into year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant. « 
In 2025, we already have one monthly close above the January high [¿?]. If October confirms with a second [¿? would be the third], the trigger will be set. With only November and December remaining, history suggests that these final months could deliver substantial gains, just as in previous “five” years.

Not every “5” year produces a trigger (e.g., 2015, 2005),
but when it does, the outcome has often been significant.
 
The pattern is neither perfect nor guaranteed, but the Dow’s record demonstrates that when it occurs, the probabilities strongly favor a significant year-end advance.

Reference:
Jake Bernstein (October 2, 2025) - Unlocking the Years-Ending-in-5 Market Signal. (video)

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite for the S&P 500 from 2001 to 2025.

See also:
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S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100 | Jeff Hirsch

The S&P 500 heads into Q4 with strong momentum after setting September all-time highs, a rare event that has almost always preceded year-end rallies. 
 
Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

The post-election year is historically the most bullish phase of the four-year cycle, and 2025’s unusually strong May–October stretch strengthens the case for further gains.

September new all-time highs historically bullish for Q4.
 
S&P 500 performance after top 20 greatest Worst Six Months (May-October):
No losses in Q4 and up >5% since 1950.
 
Q4 Market Magic. 
  
October’s volatility often marks a final shakeout before the market’s “Best Six Months” (November–April) and the NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” (November–June). These periods, long captured by tactical switching strategies, have consistently outperformed and now align with a market already in record territory.
 
2026 Outlook: Midterm Bottom Picker's Paradise.

50% Profit Possible from 2026 Low to 2027 High.
 
Recent pullbacks tied to AI earnings and fiscal risks have been shallow, leaving breadth and trend intact. With growth solid, inflation contained, and policy bias shifting toward support, the seasonal and macro backdrop favors continuation of the bull run. We project the S&P 500 to reach 7,100 by year-end, a gain of roughly 20 percent.

 
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Friday, July 25, 2025

August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes | Jeff Hirsch

August was the best DJIA month from 1901–1951, driven by agriculture and farming. Since 1988, however, it has become the worst month for DJIA and Russell 2000, and the second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000, with average returns from +0.1% (NASDAQ) to –0.8% (DJIA). In August 2022, all major indexes fell over 4%; in 2023, losses exceeded 1.8%.
 
Down from August 4 (Mon) into August 19 (Tue), mid- to late-month sideways to down, up into month end.

Since 1950, in post-election years (dashed lines in chart above), August typically starts strong with average gains in the first two trading days, then declines until shortly after mid-month. A rebound of varying size and length usually follows, before major indexes end the month in choppy or sideways trading.
 

The S&P 500 rises steadily through July (blue STA Aggregate Cycle), 
peaks in early August, and pulls back into late August.
 
In post-election years, August has been even weaker: it’s the worst month for DJIA and Russell 1000, second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. Average losses range from –0.5% (Russell 2000) to –1.5% (DJIA), with more down Augusts than up across all indexes.
  
Reference:
 
 
Bank of America (BoA) analyst Paul Ciana highlights a historical S&P 500 trend since 1928, where the average trend tended to be frontloaded in July, peaking by the end of August and correcting lower in September. However, since 2015 a similar pattern with a mid-August peak developed while the median trend sees a late September peak.


The summer doldrums (late June to early September) typically see 20-40% lower trading volumes and variable volatility due to reduced market participation. Equities, bonds, commodities, and forex show subdued activity, with occasional volatility spikes due to low liquidity, and, in August 2025, possibly from more US tariffs craze and geopolitical events. 
 
  
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report (see above) reveals extreme positioning in VIX futures, with dealers (= banks, broker-dealers, intermediaries managing risk from client trades, not speculating) holding substantial long positions and CTAs (= hedge funds, who are on the other side of the trade, typically as speculators) showing their largest short exposure since November–December 2021—a pattern that has frequently preceded spikes in the VIX. This unusual market setup suggests potential volatility in early August 2025 and aligns with Namze's forecast of an 80-day cycle low in the VIX during that period. However, the resolution may be delayed due to the scale of the positioning. 

Namzes' 2025 S&P 500 Roadmap, December 27, 2024. 

According to BofA Global Research, the average US Presidential Cycle Year 1
(1928-2024) peaks in July and falls around 8% by year-end.
 
A seasonal cycle analysis by Ned Davis Research on the 2025 S&P 500 composite—blending the standard seasonal, 4-year Presidential, and 10-year decennial cycles—projects a current peak, choppy action through October, a late-year drawdown,
and a strong Q4 rally. August and September appear as potential weak spots.

 Bitcoin Seasonal Pattern 2018-2024 vs 2025.
 
See also:
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Saturday, July 12, 2025

Seasonal Weakness in US Stocks During July Options Expirations | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, the Friday of July’s monthly options expiration week has shown a bearish bias for the DJIA, which declined 21 times in 35 years, with two unchanged years—1991 and 1995. On that Friday, the average loss is 0.36% for the DJIA and 0.35% for the S&P 500.

 DJIA down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.36% loss.
 
The NASDAQ has declined in 23 of the past 35 years during this week, with an average loss of 0.46%, including seven consecutive down years most recently. This trend suggests a potential seasonal bearish pattern likely linked to options trading dynamics.

NASDAQ down 23 of 35 years (65%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.46% loss.

For the full week, the DJIA posts the best performance, rising in 21 of 35 years with an average gain of 0.39%. However, the NASDAQ has been the weakest, declining in 21 years—including the last seven consecutively—with an average loss of 0.18%.

S&P 500 down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.35% loss.

The week following monthly options expiration also tends to be bearish for the NASDAQ, which averages a loss, compared to mild gains for the DJIA and S&P 500.
 
 

 
 
Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 Forecast Update. 
 
Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 2025  - 1965 Analogue Update.
 
 
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Wednesday, June 25, 2025

July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months but is also the seventh best performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.9% average gain. Lively trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year tends to bring an inflow of new capital.

Typical Post-Election Year July: Early Strength, Beyond Mid-Month Mixed.

This creates a bullish beginning, middle, and a mixed/flat final third. On average, over the last 21 years, nearly all of July’s gains have occurred in the first 13 trading days. Once a bullish day, the last trading day of July has had a modestly bearish bias over the last 21 years. In post-election years since 1950, July has exhibited a similar pattern to the recent 21-year period with some modest weakness just ahead of Independence Day.

 
Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac are showing that since 1950, July has been the strongest month for both the DJIA and the S&P 500 in post-election years. Specifically, the DJIA has averaged a 2.1% gain, ranking first among months, with 15 positive years and only 3 negative years. The S&P 500 mirrors this, averaging a 2.2% gain, also ranking first, with 12 positive and 6 negative years. 
 
This covers 19 presidential election cycles from 1952 to 2020, providing a robust dataset spanning post-war booms, recessions, and technological shifts. A notable statistic is the 10-year streak of positive July returns for both indices from 2015 to 2024, suggesting a recent intensification of this seasonal pattern. The table below summarizes the performance:  
 

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%.
 
 
 
% of Months in Which SPY Closed higher Than It Opened From 2015 to 2024. 
 
 
See also:
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Monday, June 2, 2025

June 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

In post-election years since 1950, early June strength has been notably stronger for NASDAQ and Russell 2000, while DJIA and S&P 500 have typically struggled.  
 
 Typical June Pattern of the S&P 500 in a Post-Election Year:
Early Strength: Starts with a slight uptrend, weaker than NASDAQ (2.5%) or Russell 2000. 
Mid-Month Dip: Drops around days 10-15 due to profit-taking or uncertainty. 
Late-Month Recovery: Rallies late June to a neutral or positive close, less than small-cap/tech gains.
 
So far in June 2025, Russell 2000 ($IWM) has gained 3.8% and NASDAQ ($QQQ) 2.5%, setting the stage for a typical brisk mid-month drop followed by a month-end rally, often led by technology and small caps.

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Tuesday, April 1, 2025

April 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

 Since 1950, April has shown steady market gains from the first trading day to the last, with occasional
minor dips. In post-election years, April starts weaker, but the dip is brief and shallow.

As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.
 

In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.

 
Other Bullish Scenarios:
 
Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.
 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).
Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

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