Showing posts with label Presidential Cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Presidential Cycle. Show all posts

Saturday, December 27, 2025

The Vedic Astrology of Silver in 2026: New Price Reality | Rowan Hogg

As of December 22, 2025, Silver traded around $69 per ounce, marking a substantial surge from approximately $30 at the start of 2025—validating earlier predictions of a breakout beginning in September 2025. Silver is forecasted to experience significant upward momentum throughout 2026, entering a "new reality" of higher valuations. Despite intermittent corrections, I anticipate Silver ending the year 2026 substantially higher, supported by ongoing industrial demand and safe-haven flows. 
 
 » To analyze Silver astrologically, we use a chart dated June 15, 1931, at 9:30 a.m. in Manhattan, New York. This marks the first trade of Silver futures contracts in the United States on the National Metal Exchange, a precursor to the modern COMEX. Although Silver has been traded for centuries, this date represents the formalization of modern Silver futures trading. «

This prediction combines tropical Western astrology with Vedic sidereal techniques, using a foundational chart for Silver futures dated June 15, 1931, at 9:30 a.m. in Manhattan, New York. Key signatures include Jupiter's interactions with natal Pluto and Jupiter (wealth expansion), Uranus influencing natal Venus (technological and revolutionary boosts), and lunar/Cancer emphases (silver's traditional rulership by the Moon).
 
Monthly Key Transits and Expectations for 2026:

■ January: Upward momentum; Jupiter stations direct over natal Pluto (wealth expansion); Sun trines natal Venus.
■ February: Rise continues; Venus in eighth house aids investments; Mercury retrograde may expose manipulations.
■ March: Bullish with FOMO. Venus conjuncts North Node and Uranus, echoing prior surges.
■ April: Mainstream visibility increases. Venus transits the tenth house; potent conjunctions over natal Venus.
■ May: Multi-year potential boost. Venus over natal Moon; Uranus compresses natal Venus; Jupiter hits natal Pluto again.
■ June: Correction; Uranus squares natal Mars/Neptune (volatility, confusion); potential macro signals.
■ July: Rise amid banking stress; Sun over natal Pluto/Jupiter; possible Eastern market shift.
■ August: Slight gain despite health scare risks. Jupiter conjunct ascendant.
■ September: High volatility, possibly downward. Chiron and Ketu influences suggest overexpansion concerns.
■ October: Volatility in mining sector. Debilitated Sun and Saturn dampen speculation.
■ November: Renewed boom. Ketu with Jupiter; potential emergency monetary policies propel prices.
■ December: Volatile but overall higher close. Uranus stresses continue, yet speculative energy persists.

2026 is viewed as a transformative year for Silver, with commodities outperforming amid anticipated global challenges (e.g., political instability, financial strains).
 
Reference:
 

Silver: Long-term Hurst cycles analysis (daily closes).
 
Silver: Short-term Hurst cycles analysis (daily bars). 
 
» The case can be made based on the quarterly ADX (ADX is the only indicator I follow) that Silver is far from overbought. I think a case can be made for $147. 
Big question is where from we might get big/long correction. « 
Peter Brandt, December 26, 2025.
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Thursday, December 25, 2025

2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities | Larry Williams

Professional bears and purveyors of pessimism often emerge at this time of year with gloom-and-doom narratives. While there are indeed periods to adopt a bearish stance, currently such warnings should be approached with caution. 
  

The standout stock of 2025 has been Nvidia. My forecast for the first few months of 2026 suggests a decline into mid-February, followed by a strong rally into April. On a longer-term basis, indicated by the blue line representing the extended cycle, Nvidia has historically rallied approximately 75% of the time during similar periods. This pattern is expected from mid-February into May, presenting a favorable opportunity for Nvidia investors.
 

Edgar Lawrence Smith's research in the 1930s profoundly influenced Warren Buffett. Smith demonstrated that stocks outperform bonds over long periods, particularly through compounding via retained earnings in growing companies. Buffett emphasized firms with disciplined reinvestment of profits. Smith also identified a dominant 3.5-year cycle in stock prices. Out-of-sample testing from 1930 onward reveals cycle lows that marked excellent buying opportunities in 1995, 1998, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2019, and 2023. This cycle points to another potential buying opportunity in 2026. 
 

Historical data on years ending in "6," dating back to 1806, show that 85% closed higher, with only four instances of declines. Additionally, after three consecutive up years, the fourth year has been positive eight out of eleven times. These patterns suggest high odds for continued upward momentum, provided supportive fundamentals persist.
 

The M2 money supply exhibits a cycle of approximately six to seven years. Lows in this cycle have historically aligned with bull market advances, as seen from 1960 onward. The next upswing is projected for 2026, introducing a bullish bias, though not guaranteeing a straight-line rally. 

In summary, 2026 is likely to feature higher stock prices, declining interest rates, and rising inflation. In Q3 I expect an historic buy point for US stocks. For detailed forecasts, visit iReallyTrade.com starting January 1.

 
 
 
 
Analyses of the S&P 500—integrating decennial, presidential, and seasonal cycles—project an annual return of up to 12% for 2026.
 
■ Strong rally in Q1, peaking around late February to mid April.
■ Pullback in April, followed by increased choppiness through June to August.
■ Weakness in late summer-early fall, and significant trough in October.
■ Robust year-end recovery from the October low.

Beginning in July 2026, the S&P 500 enters its strongest 24-month window of the four-year presidential cycle. Since 1942, every 24-month period starting in July of a midterm year has posted positive returns—a perfect 21-for-21 streak—with an average S&P 500 gain of 36.5%.

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Thursday, October 2, 2025

Unlocking the "Years-Ending-in-5" Market Signal | Jake Bernstein

One of the most reliable patterns I’ve observed in markets appears in years ending in the number five. It is simple: take the January high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above that high, history shows a strong rally often follows into early December or even year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant.

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite Future chart for the S&P 500 from 1942 to 2024.

Looking back, the results are striking. In 1995, the trigger led to a more than twenty percent advance. 1985 produced roughly fifteen percent, 1975 seven to ten percent, and even 1965, after a brief pullback, ended higher by about five percent. Earlier examples include 1955 with fifteen percent, and 1935 and 1945 each with nearly thirty percent rallies. Not every “five” year triggers the setup—as in 2005 and 2015—but when it does, the outcome has consistently favored the bulls.

 Dow Jones (monthly bars), 2025.
» If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above the January high, history shows a strong rally often follows into year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant. « 
In 2025, we already have one monthly close above the January high [¿?]. If October confirms with a second [¿? would be the third], the trigger will be set. With only November and December remaining, history suggests that these final months could deliver substantial gains, just as in previous “five” years.

Not every “5” year produces a trigger (e.g., 2015, 2005),
but when it does, the outcome has often been significant.
 
The pattern is neither perfect nor guaranteed, but the Dow’s record demonstrates that when it occurs, the probabilities strongly favor a significant year-end advance.

Reference:
Jake Bernstein (October 2, 2025) - Unlocking the Years-Ending-in-5 Market Signal. (video)

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite for the S&P 500 from 2001 to 2025.

See also:
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S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100 | Jeff Hirsch

The S&P 500 heads into Q4 with strong momentum after setting September all-time highs, a rare event that has almost always preceded year-end rallies. 
 
Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

The post-election year is historically the most bullish phase of the four-year cycle, and 2025’s unusually strong May–October stretch strengthens the case for further gains.

September new all-time highs historically bullish for Q4.
 
S&P 500 performance after top 20 greatest Worst Six Months (May-October):
No losses in Q4 and up >5% since 1950.
 
Q4 Market Magic. 
  
October’s volatility often marks a final shakeout before the market’s “Best Six Months” (November–April) and the NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” (November–June). These periods, long captured by tactical switching strategies, have consistently outperformed and now align with a market already in record territory.
 
2026 Outlook: Midterm Bottom Picker's Paradise.

50% Profit Possible from 2026 Low to 2027 High.
 
Recent pullbacks tied to AI earnings and fiscal risks have been shallow, leaving breadth and trend intact. With growth solid, inflation contained, and policy bias shifting toward support, the seasonal and macro backdrop favors continuation of the bull run. We project the S&P 500 to reach 7,100 by year-end, a gain of roughly 20 percent.

 
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Friday, July 25, 2025

August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes | Jeff Hirsch

August was the best DJIA month from 1901–1951, driven by agriculture and farming. Since 1988, however, it has become the worst month for DJIA and Russell 2000, and the second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000, with average returns from +0.1% (NASDAQ) to –0.8% (DJIA). In August 2022, all major indexes fell over 4%; in 2023, losses exceeded 1.8%.
 
Down from August 4 (Mon) into August 19 (Tue), mid- to late-month sideways to down, up into month end.

Since 1950, in post-election years (dashed lines in chart above), August typically starts strong with average gains in the first two trading days, then declines until shortly after mid-month. A rebound of varying size and length usually follows, before major indexes end the month in choppy or sideways trading.
 

The S&P 500 rises steadily through July (blue STA Aggregate Cycle), 
peaks in early August, and pulls back into late August.
 
In post-election years, August has been even weaker: it’s the worst month for DJIA and Russell 1000, second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. Average losses range from –0.5% (Russell 2000) to –1.5% (DJIA), with more down Augusts than up across all indexes.
  
Reference:
 
 
Bank of America (BoA) analyst Paul Ciana highlights a historical S&P 500 trend since 1928, where the average trend tended to be frontloaded in July, peaking by the end of August and correcting lower in September. However, since 2015 a similar pattern with a mid-August peak developed while the median trend sees a late September peak.


The summer doldrums (late June to early September) typically see 20-40% lower trading volumes and variable volatility due to reduced market participation. Equities, bonds, commodities, and forex show subdued activity, with occasional volatility spikes due to low liquidity, and, in August 2025, possibly from more US tariffs craze and geopolitical events. 
 
  
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report (see above) reveals extreme positioning in VIX futures, with dealers (= banks, broker-dealers, intermediaries managing risk from client trades, not speculating) holding substantial long positions and CTAs (= hedge funds, who are on the other side of the trade, typically as speculators) showing their largest short exposure since November–December 2021—a pattern that has frequently preceded spikes in the VIX. This unusual market setup suggests potential volatility in early August 2025 and aligns with Namze's forecast of an 80-day cycle low in the VIX during that period. However, the resolution may be delayed due to the scale of the positioning. 

Namzes' 2025 S&P 500 Roadmap, December 27, 2024. 

According to BofA Global Research, the average US Presidential Cycle Year 1
(1928-2024) peaks in July and falls around 8% by year-end.
 
A seasonal cycle analysis by Ned Davis Research on the 2025 S&P 500 composite—blending the standard seasonal, 4-year Presidential, and 10-year decennial cycles—projects a current peak, choppy action through October, a late-year drawdown,
and a strong Q4 rally. August and September appear as potential weak spots.

 Bitcoin Seasonal Pattern 2018-2024 vs 2025.
 
See also:
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Saturday, July 12, 2025

Seasonal Weakness in US Stocks During July Options Expirations | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, the Friday of July’s monthly options expiration week has shown a bearish bias for the DJIA, which declined 21 times in 35 years, with two unchanged years—1991 and 1995. On that Friday, the average loss is 0.36% for the DJIA and 0.35% for the S&P 500.

 DJIA down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.36% loss.
 
The NASDAQ has declined in 23 of the past 35 years during this week, with an average loss of 0.46%, including seven consecutive down years most recently. This trend suggests a potential seasonal bearish pattern likely linked to options trading dynamics.

NASDAQ down 23 of 35 years (65%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.46% loss.

For the full week, the DJIA posts the best performance, rising in 21 of 35 years with an average gain of 0.39%. However, the NASDAQ has been the weakest, declining in 21 years—including the last seven consecutively—with an average loss of 0.18%.

S&P 500 down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.35% loss.

The week following monthly options expiration also tends to be bearish for the NASDAQ, which averages a loss, compared to mild gains for the DJIA and S&P 500.
 
 

 
 
Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 Forecast Update. 
 
Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 2025  - 1965 Analogue Update.
 
 
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