Monday, June 2, 2025
June 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch
Tuesday, April 1, 2025
April 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch
As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.
In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.
Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 27, 2025) - Taxes Schmaxes – April Strong Open to Close – Deadline Impact Fades.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2025) - April is the second-best month for S&P 500 and DJIA.
the next major downturn over the coming weeks.
Saturday, March 1, 2025
March 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch
Rather
turbulent in recent years, with wild fluctuations and large gains and
losses, March has been experiencing some significant end-of-quarter
hits. In post-election years since 1950, March has tended to open
strongly, and this strength has generally persisted until shortly after
mid-month (as indicated by the dashed arrow below). At that point, the
major indexes lost momentum and closed out March with some choppy
trading. In contrast, over the past 21 years, March has trended lower
through mid-month before rallying in the second half.
often rally after Quadruple Witching (March 21), likely sharp decline the week after.
March is a particularly busy month. It marks the end of the first quarter, which brings with it quarterly Quadruple Witching (Friday, March 21) and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from Wall Street. In recent years, March Quad-Witching Weeks have been quite bullish, but the week after has been nearly the exact opposite, with the DJIA down 22 of the last 37 years—and often down sharply.
Tuesday, February 4, 2025
The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics
# 1: Mid-February to Late-March Decline: Price action shows an important top between February 14 and 15, followed by a bearish trend lasting into March 20.
# 3: July Rally: Since 2009, the S&P 500 has always risen between June 27 and July 25. Not most years. Every single year.
# 5: November Rally: S&P 500 consistently rising since 2004 and averaging a 4.88% gain.
Wednesday, January 8, 2025
S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties | Robert Miner
That said, Post-Election Year returns have historically favored 1st-Term Democrats. Since 1949, there has been only one instance of a loss during a Post-Election Year with a 1st-Term Democrat, while 4 out of 6 1st-Term Republicans saw losses.
— Jeffrey A. Hirsch, January 14, 2025.
Data suggests caution in the third quarter during a 1st-Term Republican administration, and the first quarter is typically the worst-performing. Swing traders should wait for the Spring Low to occur between late March and early April before entering long positions. Post-Election Years generally show strong second-quarter performance with a consistent bull trend from the Spring Low to the Summer High (which can occur as early as mid-May), with an average return of around 4%. The Summer High period, from June to August, sees positive returns only in about one-third of Post-Election Years.
Wednesday, January 1, 2025
S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Patterns │ Jeff Hirsch
2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy │ Namzes
In 2025, the S&P 500 is expected to head toward a multi-year major market top. The overall structure of the S&P 500 is forecasted to rise until mid-January, followed by a correction of more than 10% into late February or mid-to-late March, and then a melt-up into a major top in mid-July or late-August. This will be followed by an approximately 17% drop into late October that will trigger a bear market.
The major top is anticipated around July 17, with the possibility of a lower high or a double top/divergent high by August 22, with a minimum target of 6,500 and an upside target of approximately 7,000. After this, the market is expected to drop into a low around October 27, aligning with seasonal and nested cycle lows, followed by a bounce that ultimately fails. The S&P 500 is expected to end the year in the red, setting up for a challenging 2026, with a year-end target of 5,650.
6.) The 5-Year Liquidity Cycle, proxied by the M2 year-over-year (YoY) change, is expected to peak in the second half of 2025 and then decline until late 2028 or early 2029. The Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP) is nearly drained, and while the Treasury General Account (TGA) could provide a temporary boost if it’s spent down, the Fed will soon halt Quantitative Tightening (QT). However, other central banks can't ease much due to the strong U.S. dollar. Maintaining historically overvalued equities will require a significant liquidity injection.
The ideal bottom of the 5.3-year inflation cycle falls around the end of 2025. It largely depends on oil, which should begin its multi-quarter run sometime in 2025:
■ Bitcoin will experience a deep retest into a March 2025 low, followed by one more run at the 2024 highs in early summer, after which crypto will enter a multi-year bear market. In my opinion, there is a high probability that the next 4-year cycle (2026+) will be left-translated, with Saylor and MicroStrategy (MSTR) being liquidated and the Tether-fraud (USDT) likely exposed. Meanwhile, almost all altcoins will lose 99-100%. It is currently unclear whether Bitcoin will act more as a NASDAQ proxy or a monetary hedge in the years ahead. Many altcoins may have already peaked for the cycle, but some, like Ethereum (ETH), still have more upside.
■ The Yen is expected to begin a multi-year uptrend, leading to trillions in capital flowing back to Japan in the years ahead.
■ Given that 2022 was the 8-year cycle low in Gold, we now have a bullish intermediate and long-term bias. There is a potential low in the spring around the 2,400 support, followed by a push higher towards 2,800–3,000+ into 2026. Central banks won’t stop buying as the war cycle and geopolitical tensions intensify, while governments debase currencies.
■ All energy should be in an uptrend over the next 6-8 quarters, with Natural Gas likely leading (reaching a new all-time high in 2026).
at the end of January to early February 2025, with a confluence of
the 100-day cycle low and the seasonal low. The above is composite
cycle chart from December 3, 2024 for reference.
My Crude Oil leading indicators and cycles suggest a big move in the next 2 years, but the exact timing of the expansion is hard to pinpoint, potentially around the end of 2025 into 2026. [see also HERE]. Uranium is likely to return to 100+ in 2025, and Coal should also see gains.