In post-election years since 1950, early June strength has been notably stronger for NASDAQ and Russell 2000, while DJIA and S&P 500 have typically struggled.
Typical June Pattern of the S&P 500 in a Post-Election Year:
Early Strength: Starts with a slight uptrend, weaker than NASDAQ (2.5%) or Russell 2000.
Mid-Month Dip: Drops around days 10-15 due to profit-taking or uncertainty.
Late-Month Recovery: Rallies late June to a neutral or positive close, less than small-cap/tech gains.
So
far in June 2025, Russell 2000 ($IWM) has gained 3.8% and NASDAQ ($QQQ)
2.5%, setting the stage for a typical brisk mid-month drop followed by a
month-end rally, often led by technology and small caps.
