The current 40-week cycle, which began at the November 21, 2025 trough, consists of several nested sub-cycles (see S&P 500 chart below). The primary component is the first 20-week cycle; while this period nominally spans 136 calendar days, the actual average (bottom right) over the last iterations has been 16.9 weeks = 118 days (= Intermediate Term Delta Cycle). This discrepancy falls within the 20% margin allowed by Hurst’s Principle of Variation.
SPY (daily candles), September 2025 to May 2026.
Based on these metrics, the projected low for the current 20-week cycle is expected to occur between March 17 and March 19 (Tue–Thu):
► next (nominal) 10-day cycle (actual 7.6 day) low = Feb 24 (Tue)
► next 20-day (15.4 day) low = Mar 3 (Tue)
► next 40-day (31 day) low = Mar 17 (Tue)
► next 80-day (57 day) low = Mar 18 (Wed)
► next 20-week (118 day) low = Mar 19 (Thu)
► next 20-day (15.4 day) low = Mar 3 (Tue)
► next 40-day (31 day) low = Mar 17 (Tue)
► next 80-day (57 day) low = Mar 18 (Wed)
► next 20-week (118 day) low = Mar 19 (Thu)