Friday, September 28, 2012

Major Stock Market Rallies of last 111 Years Compared
The Dow made another post-financial crisis rally late last week. To provide some further perspective to the current Dow rally (and in response to several requests), all major market rallies of the last 111 years are plotted on today's chart. 

Each dot represents a major stock market rally as measured by the Dow with the majority of rallies referred to by a label which states the year in which the rally began ... a rally is being defined as an advance that follows a 30% decline (i.e. a major bear market) ... the Dow has begun a major rally 13 times over the past 111 years which equates to an average of one rally every 8.5 years ... As it stands right now, the current Dow rally that began in March 2009 (blue dot labeled you are here) would be classified as well below average in both duration and magnitude. However, when compared to the most recent post-major bear market rally (i.e. the rally that began in 2002), the current rally has already surpassed it in magnitude and required less time to do so.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Relationships between Centimeter, Inch, Year, and Month

What do inches and centimeters have to do with astronomy? That's what first popped into my mind when I discovered this amazing relationship. Suppose you have a circle with a diameter measured in centimeters and a magnitude equal to exactly 10 synodic months. We'll use the value of 29.53 for the length of the synodic month. It turns out that the magnitude of the circumference of the circle, measured in inches matches the length of the tropical year in days.

10 × 29.53 cm × π = 927.71 cm
927.71 cm ÷ 2.54 cm/inch = 365.24 inches 


Wednesday, September 19, 2012

SPX vs Mars - North Node Cycle

Hard aspects between Mars and the Vedic Dragon (= Rahu = Lunar North Node) oftentimes go along with CITs in financial markets (HERE). A conjunction is due on October 2nd - the next projected 10 Day Hurst-Cycle Low.


02.06.2011 00:27 (Sun) = MAR 45° North Node
03.29.2011 12:09 (Tue) = MAR 90° North Node
05.22.2011 15:00 (Sun) = MAR 135° North Node
07.23.2011 13:21 (Sat) = MAR 180° North Node
09.23.2011 12:30 (Fri) = MAR 135° North Node
12.13.2011 01:07 (Tue) = MAR 90° North Node
03.19.2012 15:27 (Mon) = MAR 90° North Node
04.30.2012 18:52 (Mon) = MAR 90° North Node
08.03.2012 07:42 (Fri) = MAR 45° North Node
10.02.2012 10:51 (Tue) = MAR 0° North Node
12.01.2012 09:01 (Sat) = MAR 45° North Node

01.24.2013 14:20 (Thu) = MAR 90° North Node
03.15.2013 22:58 (Fri) = MAR 135° North Node
05.13.2013 01:15 (Mon) = MAR 180° North Node
07.12.2013 07:56 (Fri) = MAR 135° North Node
09.10.2013 20:37 (Tue) = MAR 90° North Node
11.23.2013 10:38 (Sat) = MAR 45° North Node
07.13.2014 20:19 (Sun) = MAR 0° North Node
09.20.2014 07:18 (Sat) = MAR 45° North Node
11.20.2014 06:00 (Thu) = MAR 90° North Node
01.10.2015 14:15 (Sat) = MAR 135° North Node

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. Also credits to Raj Times and Cycles

Saturday, September 15, 2012

S&P 500 Today = Eurodollar COT 1 Year Ago | Tom McClellan

In May 2011 Tom McClellan unveiled a sensational discovery:
There are some jewels in the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:  ... Commercial traders' net positions in eurodollar futures shifted forward by one year foretell the the stock market.
... Let's pause a minute to let that deep point sink in. Commercial eurodollar traders seem to "know" a year in advance what the stock market is going to do.  It is not a perfect correlation, but it is a darned good one.  I'm not sure what makes this work, but I have seen that it has worked great since about 1997 ... The term "eurodollars" should not be confused with the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro
Projected CITs for the S&P 500 are (since COT data is weekly, CITs are +/-):

09/13/2012 high
09/20/2012 low
10/18/2012 high
11/08/2012 low
11/29/2012 HIGH of the Year
12/20/2012 low
01/03/2013 high

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

SPX vs Delta - Update

A high (ITD #3) around Equinox - a Gann Natural Trading Day clustered with more astro-events (HERE & HERE) - would also be perfectly in line with the seasonal pattern:

2008-11-05 High + 1416 CD = Sep 22 (Sat) = 4 Lunar Year Cycle (LTD)
2011-10-04 Low + 354 CD = Sep 22 (Sat) = 1 Lunar Year Cycle inverted (MTD)
2012-05-29 High + 118 CD = Sep 24 (Mon) = 4 Lunation Cycle (ITD)

Though THE high projected for late August is not in yet, the 1972-2012 correlation = 40 year Cycle has increased to 89%

SPX vs Solar Activity

Last 30 Days Daily Solar Data
Solar flares and CMEs are intense flashes of extreme radiation emanating from the Sun.  

The ejected material is a plasma consisting primarily of electrons and protons, but may contain small quantities of heavier elements such as helium, oxygen, and even iron. 

Most solar flares and coronal mass ejections originate in magnetically active regions around visible sunspot groupings. 

Near solar maxima the Sun produces about three CMEs every day, whereas near solar minima there is about one CME every five days (see also HERE).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Solar flares are classified according to the peak flux as Class A, -B, -C, -M or -X Flares (ranged from small to large). Daily Solar Data, a 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity, as well as a 45 Day F10.7cm Flux Forecast are provided free of charge by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

For the purpose of market timing only Class M and -X flares are relevant. However, not every flare ejected by the Sun is directed towards the Earth. But if it is, the solar storm takes 2 days +/- to trigger a geomagnetic storm. In 2003, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta did a study on the effects of solar storms on stock market traders: "Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all US stock market indices."
Therefore, some 2 days +/- after an earth-directed Class M or Class X flare a drop in the stock markets should be expected.

So what about the latest Class M flares on September 8th and 9th? They will miss to hit the Earth (see also HERE). Instead various 10.7cm Flux Forecasts suggest the stock markets will keep wedging up into around the New Moon (Sep 15) or even the Equinox (Sep 22). Please note: Solar-, lunar- and other astro-indicators frequently fail around Equinoxes (inversion periods are: March 21 - April 7, , June 7 - July 7, September 9 - October 11, December 8 - January 6).

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

SPX vs Alignments & Oppositions of Mercury-Venus-Jupiter-Earth

EAR and/or MER and/or VEN and/or JUP = 0°or 180° to EAR and/or MER and/or VEN and/or JUP [HELIO - MAXORB 1°]

07.29.2012 - 07.30.2012
08.12.2012 - 08.13.2012
09.10.2012 - 09.11.2012
09.20.2012 - 09.21.2012

10.04.2012 - 10.05.2012
10.21.2012 - 10.22.2012
11.18.2012 - 11.19.2012
11.20.2012 - 11.21.2012
12.03.2012 - 12.04.2012
12.18.2012 - 12.19.2012
01.03.2013 - 01.04.2013
01.16.2013 - 01.17.2013
01.18.2013 - 01.19.2013
02.17.2013 - 02.18.2013
02.28.2013 - 03.01.2013
03.04.2013 - 03.05.2013
03.28.2013 - 03.30.2013
04.04.2013 - 04.05.2013
05.12.2013 - 05.13.2013
05.16.2013 - 05.19.2013
06.19.2013 - 06.21.2013
07.03.2013 - 07.04.2013
07.10.2013 - 07.11.2013
08.05.2013 - 08.06.2013
08.25.2013 - 08.26.2013
09.11.2013 - 09.12.2013
10.02.2013 - 10.03.2013
10.20.2013 - 10.21.2013
11.02.2013 - 11.03.2013
12.22.2013 - 12.23.2013
12.29.2013 - 12.30.2013

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.

DJIA vs 35.21 Three Year Cycle

HighRev [Sep. 9th, 2012]: The 47 Year Cycle and the 35.21 Three Year Cycle are variations of the Kitchin Cycle. "I was originally working with a rough 7 year cycle working off the momentum lows on the technicals using the 2002-2003 lows and the 2008-2009 lows as my principal reference points, but that did not backtest well. 

As a result I started looking at the 4 Year Kitchin Cycle (which is really a 41 month cycle) that had failed in the late 1940’s, and when it revived, it was out of step with its previous cycle framework. In shifting the Kitchin cycle and using the 1932 low as the start date, the results were also lackluster. 

Since I wanted something that would tie in the 1932 low with the 2002 and 2009 lows, and also be fairly reliable in between, I discarded the Kitchin Cycle and started looking at variations. As a result, I came up with this “35.21 Three Year Cycle”, which in turn became the basis for the larger cycles and sub-cycles. 

I especially like the early cycle lows matching price lows, mid-cycle lows sometimes seeing inversions in a strongly trending environment, and late cycle lows oscillating between price lows and price highs. As with all cycles, there’s no such thing as perfection. Sometimes they come early, sometimes they come late, and sometimes they’re on time. The actual 47 year low came late with regards to the idealized low, but only missed by just over a 5% time window when looking at it on a century to century time frame, and that isn’t bad at all for a cycle low (and when looking at the 3 year cycle where there are a good many lows that came as much as 6 months early/late, that “miss” looks even better). Another thing I really like about this cycle is how the longer term 47 year cycle takes into account the two main secular bulls coming out of the 1932 lows. I also got the 1932, 2002, 2009, and a good many other important lows to “line up”, and that, in what I like to call, "a best fit" pattern."

OT - Impact & Explosion on Jupiter
Apparently, something hit Jupiter during the early hours of Sept. 10th (11:35 UT), igniting a ferocious fireball in the giant planet's cloudtops. Amateur astronomer Dan Peterson Racine, Wisconsin, saw it first through his Meade 12" LX200 telescope. "It was a bright white flash that lasted only 1.5 - 2 seconds," he reports. Another amateur astronomer, George Hall of Dallas, Texas, was video-recording Jupiter at the time, and he confirmed the fireball with this video screenshot (left).

The fireball was probably caused by a small asteroid or comet hitting Jupiter. Similar impacts were observed in June and August 2010. An analysis of those earlier events suggests that Jupiter is frequently struck by 10 meter-class asteroids -one of the hazards of orbiting near the asteroid belt and having such a strong gravitational pull.

Astronomers around the world will now begin monitoring the impact site for signs of debris - either the cindery remains of the impactor or material dredged up from beneath Jupiter's cloud tops. Some impacts do produce such debris, while others don't. See also HERE & HERE 

Many think this is how and where planets and moons are created, and Immanuel Velikovsky's Worlds in Collision (1950) comes to light, proposing that around the 15th century BCE, Venus was ejected from Jupiter as a comet or comet-like object, passed near Earth (an actual collision is not mentioned).

The object changed Earth's orbit and axis, causing innumerable catastrophes which were mentioned in early mythologies and religions around the world. 

Fifty-two years later, it passed close by again, stopping the Earth's rotation for a while and causing more catastrophes. Then, in the 8th and 7th centuries BCE, Mars (itself displaced by Venus) made close approaches to the Earth; this incident caused a new round of disturbances and disasters. 

After that, the current "celestial order" was established. The courses of the planets stabilized over the centuries and Venus gradually became a "normal" planet. See also HERE

On September 9th the San Cristobal volcano in Nicaragua has rumbled to life with three explosions, forcing the evacuation of 3,000 residents. 

San Cristobal, located 135 km northwest of Managua, is one of the country’s most active volcanoes. Since Thursday, when an earthquake of 7.6-magnitude rocked neighboring Costa Rica and was also felt in Nicaragua.
People are now fearing the powerful quake would have an “impact on the activation” on several other active volcanoes in the region. See also HERE

Solar Activity vs Earthquakes and Volcanoes: When solar activity increases, the corpuscular emission and solar magnetic field strength increase rapidly as well, inducing ring currents in various layers of Earth, particularly, in lithosphere and astheposphere.  Currents in asthenosphere appeared as a result of solar activity increase cause mantle heating, its plasticity growth and as a result convection currents acceleration. Convection currents acceleration leads to spreading acceleration, and increase of mantle temperature – to its heat expansion while Earth extension is taken place due to spreading. In the periods of solar activity decrease the ring currents magnitude inducing in the mantle, decreases as well and as a result there decreases temperature and Earth compression, accompanying by the process of subduction. See also HERE

Researchers have noticed coincidence between sunspot minima and occurrences of major earthquakes or volcanoes.The Earth’s iron core (source of the Earth’s magnetic field, i.e. the Earth’s dynamo) does not rotate around the same axes as the Earth itself, hence dislocation of magnetic poles. Jupiter-Saturn gravitational forces pull the Sun around its barycentre. The same forces pull the Earth’s mass centre away from its orbital trajectory, the eccentricity of the Earth’s iron core to the rest of its bodily mass causing drift of its magnetic poles. It follows that a certain major planets configuration will cause disturbances within the Earth’s interior which may initiate major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. See also HERE & HERE

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Sun Burst: Collapsing solar filament on August 31

A gigantic solar filament collapse has been caught on a NASA observatory camera. The stunning video covers nearly 3 hours compressed into half a minute. The event resulted in a coronal mass ejection and a small-scale geomagnetic storm on Earth.

The footage shot in extreme ultraviolet light shows the last hours of an arc of relatively cold plasma, which was kept stable by magnetic forces, but collapsed on August 31. The filament explodes, releasing a burst of radiation and coronal mass into space.
The ejection delivered a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetosphere, triggering a moderate level geomagnetic storm, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center reported. By Tuesday, however, radiation levels went below the minor event threshold.

A solar filament, also called a solar prominence if it is observed against space, consists of hot ionized hydrogen and helium looping hundreds of thousands of kilometers from the sun’s surface into the relatively hotter corona. It can persist for months before ceasing to exist. Astrophysicists so far have no comprehensive theory as to how such structures are formed.

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Sep 03 22:00 UTC

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (04 - 06 September) with a chance for isolated M- class flares.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (04 September) with a chance for minor storm levels as CME effects wind down. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during days 2 - 3 (05 - 06 September) with a chance for active levels due to arrival of Earth-directed CMEs observed on 02 September along with a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The CH HSS is expected to commence on day 3. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit is expected to end on day 1.
See also HERE & HERE & HERE

Monday, September 3, 2012

SPX vs Mercury Declination

01.22.2011 16:55 (Sat) = Mercury Dec @ max South
03.09.2011 21:26 (Wed) = Mercury Dec @ 0
03.31.2011 06:20 (Thu) = Mercury Dec @ max North
06.19.2011 01:56 (Sun) = Mercury Dec @ max North
09.01.2011 18:28 (Thu) = Mercury Dec @ max North
09.27.2011 13:03 (Tue) = Mercury Dec @ 0
11.17.2011 23:21 (Thu) = Mercury Dec @ max South
01.14.2012 09:31 (Sat) = Mercury Dec @ max South
02.29.2012 22:45 (Wed) = Mercury Dec @ 0
03.13.2012 20:30 (Tue) = Mercury Dec @ max North
03.28.2012 17:13 (Wed) = Mercury Dec @ 0
04.09.2012 15:13 (Mon) = Mercury Dec @ max South
04.22.2012 18:38 (Sun) = Mercury Dec @ 0
06.08.2012 20:31 (Fri) = Mercury Dec @ max North
08.17.2012 03:14 (Fri) = Mercury Dec @ max North
09.18.2012 03:49 (Tue) = Mercury Dec @ 0
11.03.2012 19:22 (Sat) = Mercury Dec @ max South
01.05.2013 03:46 (Sat) = Mercury Dec @ max South
03.23.2013 13:30 (Sat) = Mercury Dec @ max South
04.17.2013 20:52 (Wed) = Mercury Dec @ 0
05.31.2013 01:02 (Fri) = Mercury Dec @ max North
08.04.2013 05:44 (Sun) = Mercury Dec @ max North
09.09.2013 21:11 (Mon) = Mercury Dec @ 0
10.19.2013 21:60 (Sat) = Mercury Dec @ max South
12.27.2013 22:03 (Fri) = Mercury Dec @ max South

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.

Big Picture - DJIA & S&P 500

Here are quarterly bar charts of the DJIA and the S&P 500 going back to 1900 and 1925. 

The PPO and the Elder Impulse bars gives a good sense of the momentum during the last 100 years. 

SPX / FXA Analog: Decline into Election Day on November 6th ?

Should the pattern and correlation of the Aussie to the equity markets and risk appetites continue, the timing and proportional decline into election day on November 6th, could put President Obama on the losing end of what was carried out by voters to his benefit - on November 4th, 2008.   



Saturday, September 1, 2012

Sell Rosh Hashanah - Buy Yom Kippur

Jeffrey A. Hirsch turns around the old Wall Street adage “Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur.” The wiser course of action these days is to “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur, Sell Passover.” He explains that “the basis for the new pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum.

Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, falls on the Hebrew calendar dates of 1 and 2 Tishrei (2012 = September 16 (at sundown) - 18).

Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement, falls on the Hebrew calendar date of 10 Tishrei (2012 = September 25-26)

Simple Moon Trading Strategy

Tom Pelc & Dmytro Bondar (The Royal Bank of Scotland, 2010)

...  we study the performance of 6 indices FTSE 100, S&P 500, DAX, EUROXX 50, Hang Seng, CAC 40 [versus the lunar cycle] for a period of several decades. 

... The proposed trading strategy can be summarized as follows: buy an index on the new moon (if this is a non-trading day, buy on the next trading day), hold till the full moon (usually 14-15 days), sell the index on the full moon (similarly, if non-trading day, sell on the next trading day), repeat the investment of the overall amount on the next moon cycle (usually in 14-16 days).

... Having invested £1,000 in S&P 500 in 1928, by now would outcome in holding £63,864 worth portfolio, while by implementing the proposed moon trading strategy, the value of portfolio would have been £1,502,689.