SPX vs Mercury @ Maximum Elongation East / West + Mercury conjunct Sun

Any Mercury Maximum Elongation (e.g. maximum East on Dec 10, 2016) coincides with increased solar storminess, particularly within a few days either way of the key points within the cycle. An inferior conjunction of the Sun and Mercury will occur on Dec 28, 2016 (Wed).

Astronomical Calculator HERE

SPX vs Mercury’s Maximum Elongation East / West + MER 000 SUN

Any Mercury Maximum Elongation (e.g. maximum West on Sep 28, 2016) coincides with increased solar storminess, particularly
within a few days either way of the key points within the cycle. Superior (far side) conjunctions of the Sun and Mercury
(e.g. Oct 27, 2016) are typically indications of bursts of solar activity (solar flares, coronal holes and coronal mass
ejections (CMEs)) some two weeks later, give or take a few days either way.
Maximum Elongation of Mercury Calculators e.g. HERE + HERE

Largest Geomagnetic Disturbances during Solar Cycle 24

HERE & HERE & HERE

Yesterday 28 solar storm warnings were reported from satellites watching the sun - a very rare event in just one day (HERE). The most powerful solar storm of the current solar cycle is currently reverberating around the globe. Initially triggered by the impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME) hitting our planet’s magnetosphere, a relatively mild geomagnetic storm erupted at around 04:30 UT, but it has since ramped-up to an impressive G4-class geomagnetic storm, priming high latitudes for some bright auroral displays. Further significant flare activity from Region 2297 is to be expected until it rotates off the visible disk on March 19th. This already caused the largest geomagnetic disturbances during the current solar cycle. 

Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market, a 2003 study of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, notes the following: Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all US stock market indices.  

When a solar flare or CME happens, it can take up to 2 days to impact the earth. Therefore, two days after a large solar flare we should see a drop in the stock market values for that day. More on the impact of such events on the financial markets and trading see also HERE.

Sunspot Cycle 24: "None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle"

Conventional wisdom holds that solar activity swings back and forth like a simple pendulum.  At one end of the cycle, there is a quiet time with few sunspots and flares. At the other end, Solar Maximum brings high sunspot numbers and solar storms. It’s a regular rhythm that repeats every 11 years. 

Reality, however, is more complicated. Astronomers have been counting sunspots for centuries, and they have seen that the solar cycle is not perfectly regular. For one thing, the back-and-forth swing in sunspot counts can take anywhere from 10 to 13 years to complete; also, the amplitude of the cycle varies. Some solar maxima are very weak, others very strong (HERE). 

But "none of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle [as the sunspot cycle 24]", said Dr. Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University and other prominent solar scientists at the 2013 Fall Meeting of American Geophysical Union (AGU), held on December 11, 2013 in San Francisco. This solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s (see also HERE & HERE).

John Hampson recently expected the "solar cycle 24′s flat top to end by mid-2014", and one of two possibities playing out: "One, equities peak out within the next 6 months, commodities don’t come again, and we thereafter enter the typical post-solar-peak recession (deflationary). Or, two, equities are peaking now and commodities are breaking upwards out of their large consoliation triangles since 2011 to produce a typical late-cyclical final rally and help tip the weak economy into that recession." (see also HERE).

Credits: John Hampson

Credits: Jan Alvestad

 

Credits: Jan Alvestad

Solar Tides & Financial Markets | Al Larson

Astrophysics & Chaos [Mar 30, 1999]

"The Solar Energy System does affect markets. The Sun gives off radiation which varies by about 2 percent. These variations are caused by tidal forces that the revolving planets exert on the gases in the Sun.

These tides cause vortexes in the Sun’s surface leading to solar flares, coronal holes, and magnetic storms. The energy changes from these are carried to Earth on an ionized stream of particles called the Solar Wind.

When the Solar Wind reaches Earth it is deflected around the Earth by the Earth’s magnetic field. 

This creates a magnetosphere around the Earth. At the poles ionized particles can penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere. Changes in the solar radiation cause changes in the voltage in the ionosphere.

This in turn causes changes in the electrical currents flowing through people standing on the Earth. These emotional swings account for about 40 percent of price motion."

 

Al Larson a.k.a. Hanns Hannula [extracted from his "Cash in on Chaos Newsletter" @ www.moneytide.com - more HERE & HERE]

 

Hans Hannula (1991): A Lunar Chaos Theory; p. 14

German DAX vs Delta & Space Weather

ITD #1 = Sep 5 L
ITD #2 = Sep 21 H = MTD #5 ?
ITD #3 = Sep 28 L (Full Moon)
ITD #4 = Oct 5 H
ITD #5 = Oct 10-11 L
ITD #y = Oct 15-16 H (New Moon)
ITD #z = Oct 22-24 L
ITD #6 = Oct 26-29 H = MTD #5 ? (Full Moon)
ITD #7 = Nov 7 L = MTD #6 ?

HERE + HERE + HERE

Since October 8 strong geomagnetic storms are pressing on traders' mood, and more M-class flares along with high values in the K Index should be expected into October 10-12 (HERE + HERE).

When a solar flare or CME happens, it can take up to 2 days to impact the Earth, depending on the solar wind's speed. Therefore, expecting drops in the stock market up to two days after large flares is reasonable (HERE + HERE).

www.astrocycle.net

Sun Burst: Collapsing solar filament on August 31

Credits: RT 04 September, 2012, 11:34

A gigantic solar filament collapse has been caught on a NASA observatory camera. The stunning video covers nearly 3 hours compressed into half a minute. The event resulted in a coronal mass ejection and a small-scale geomagnetic storm on Earth.

The footage shot in extreme ultraviolet light shows the last hours of an arc of relatively cold plasma, which was kept stable by magnetic forces, but collapsed on August 31. The filament explodes, releasing a burst of radiation and coronal mass into space.

www.swpc.noaa.gov

The ejection delivered a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetosphere, triggering a moderate level geomagnetic storm, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center reported. By Tuesday, however, radiation levels went below the minor event threshold.

A solar filament, also called a solar prominence if it is observed against space, consists of hot ionized hydrogen and helium looping hundreds of thousands of kilometers from the sun’s surface into the relatively hotter corona. It can persist for months before ceasing to exist. Astrophysicists so far have no comprehensive theory as to how such structures are formed.

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Sep 03 22:00 UTC

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (04 - 06 September) with a chance for isolated M- class flares.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (04 September) with a chance for minor storm levels as CME effects wind down. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during days 2 - 3 (05 - 06 September) with a chance for active levels due to arrival of Earth-directed CMEs observed on 02 September along with a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The CH HSS is expected to commence on day 3. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit is expected to end on day 1.

See also HERE & HERE & HERE