Solar Cycles and Inflation-Adjusted Gold Price Forecasting | Vladimir Belkin

Vladimir Belkin's latest study quantifies the relationship between solar activity and the inflation-adjusted price of Gold (1968–2025) within a Jevons–Chizhevsky analytical framework. By synchronizing real Gold prices with the ordinal structure of solar cycles—measured via sunspot (Wolf) numbers—it identifies a strong and statistically significant fit (R² = 0.9081, p = 0.0115), implying that approximately 90.8% of the variance in real Gold prices is explained by his solar-cycle model. 

 

Grouping of data by ordinal numbers of years in solar activity cycles (1968–2025).

 

Rather than implying direct causation, the results point to a cyclical transmission mechanism in which solar rhythms embed and modulate underlying economic periodicities, notably Kitchin- and Juglar-type cycles, thereby acting as a structural driver of long-term commodity price behavior.

 

Ordinal years of the mean solar cycle and inflation-adjusted Gold prices

(1968–2025); superposed epoch analysis of 58 years of observations.

The model integrates CPI-adjusted Gold price data with a superposed epoch framework, aligning multiple solar cycles into a normalized temporal structure and fitting a 6th-degree polynomial to capture the nonlinear progression of price behavior across cycle phases (chart above). This produces a phase-sensitive waveform that preserves both timing and amplitude characteristics of historical Gold price movements relative to the solar cycle. The robustness of the fit suggests a stable coupling between solar variability and macro-financial conditions—likely mediated through liquidity, inflation expectations, and broader cyclical economic regimes.

The study advances beyond descriptive correlation to a deterministic forecasting model. Each calendar year is mapped to its corresponding position within Solar Cycle 25, and forward price projections are derived using empirically observed year-to-year transition ratios embedded in the cycle structure.

Within this framework, 2026 (cycle year 7) implies a contraction in real Gold prices to approximately $2,536.35/oz (0.70 × $3,623.36), followed by 2027 (year 8) with a modest recovery to $2,587.08/oz (1.02 × prior year). 

This projected path is consistent with the transition from peak solar activity into the declining phase of the cycle, which historically coincides with reduced upside momentum, elevated volatility, or corrective dynamics in real Gold prices.

For the post-2025 horizon, the model therefore implies a nonlinear, wave-structured trajectory rather than a sustained directional trend: late-cycle topping behavior into the solar maximum, followed by cyclical deceleration into the late 2020s, and eventual reacceleration as the next solar minimum-to-maximum sequence unfolds. 

 

Forecasted development of the current Solar Cycle 25 (NASA).

 

These projections remain conditional on three factors: the accuracy of solar cycle forecasts, the stability of the regression relationship, and the interaction with concurrent macroeconomic cycles. Within those constraints, the framework offers a high-coherence, quantitatively grounded method for translating solar-cycle dynamics directly into forward estimates of inflation-adjusted Gold prices.

Reference:

Vladimir Belkin (July 1, 2026) - Solar Activity and the Inflation-Adjusted Price of Gold (1968–2025): R² = 0.91. 

 

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The extension of Belkin’s inflation-adjusted Gold price forecast through 2032 applies the same chaining methodology, using average ratios from column 5 in his table above and starting from $3,623.36 in 2025. Solar Cycle 25 began in 2019–2020 (2020 = Year 1) and is expected to end around 2030–2031, with Cycle 26 beginning. 

  

Inflation-adjusted Gold price forecast through 2032.

 

The resulting forecasts are 2025 at $3,623.36, 2026 at $2,536.35, 2027 at $2,587.08, 2028 at $2,664.69, 2029 at $3,011.10, 2030 at $3,462.77, 2031 at $2,735.59, and 2032 at $3,474.20. 

 

 

Inflation-adjusted Gold price will likely peak around 2033-2034.

  

The method is unchanged, with 2026–2027 matching Belkin's paper exactly. 2031 is the Cycle 25 minimum, and 2032 begins Cycle 26 using the average Year 1–to–Year 12 ratio. All figures are real (inflation-adjusted) and reflect the typical decline into solar minimum followed by a rebound. This is a statistical historical correlation; Gold prices are also driven by other factors, and Belkin’s solar cycle timing carries an uncertainty of about ±1 year.

 

See also:

Sergey Tarassov (2026) - Gold's 7.8-Year Cycle: Historical Analysis Since 1782. 

 NOAA (ongoing) - Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression.

Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026 | Sergey Tarassov

Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution charts correlate the S&P 500 with harmonics of the 41-month Kitchin cycle (currently averaging 1,267.7 days, or 3.473 years).

 

 Note: Based on daily closes, the plotted waves are band-pass–filtered components centered on the target periodicity

(Kitchin range) and subsequently smoothed via averaging/Fourier/digital filtering, suppressing high-frequency noise

and yielding a clean sinusoidal form. Accordingly, they lack utility for day trading or short-term execution.  

The cycle projections (green, blue, and magenta lines) for 2026 in the first chart suggest that the current sideways-to-down phase in the S&P 500 concludes by mid-late-July, followed by a strong projected surge into year-end, then a decline or retracement into Q1–early Q2 2027, and a renewed rise into Q1 2028.

The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of the S&P through 2028.

  

The long-term chart (2021–2028) indicates an upward trajectory in the S&P 500’s Kitchin cycle into late 2026, followed by a sharp correction in Q1 2027 and a continued rise extending through 2027–2028.

  

Reference:

Sergey Tarassov (July 2026) - Kitchin Cycle and S&P 500.

[ To be honest, these are screenshots from a video from July that I can no longer find. ] 

See also:

Sergey Tarassov (2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025.

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - The Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

 

Kitchin (41-Month) and other Dominant Cycles across Assets and Sectors. 

 

Sergey Tarassov's table classifies each asset by its dominant cyclical drivers (e.g., Kitchin ~3–4y, Juglar ~9y, sunspot harmonics, Venus synodic, 7.8y Gold) and indicates which periodicities statistically dominate price behavior. The “Profile” column quantifies cycle influence, showing the proportion or confidence of a given cycle explaining variance (e.g., “Kitchin 100%” = primary driver). Overall, it’s a multi-cycle attribution framework used to build composite waveforms and time market turning points via overlapping periodic structures. "H" notation interpreted as harmonic components (e.g., 2H, 3H, 4H of Sunspot cycle). "Venus syn" → "Venus synodic" for clarity. Consistent cycle formatting: Cycle (length) where applicable. Ranges unified: e.g., 2H–4H instead of 2H 3H 4H. Missing profiles left blank (—) rather than inferred.

 

Key Cycle Periodicities. 

The second table standardizes all cycles of the first into approximate durations in days and years. Kitchin Cycle (~3.3y) ≈ Sunspot Cycle 3H (~3.7y) explains why they co-appear frequently in the dataset. Other key dominant drivers are: 5.5y (Sunspot 2H) → strongest macro-economic driver (confirmed in GDP note), 7.8y (Gold cycle) → dominant in FX + metals, and 9y (Juglar) → long equity + credit structure. Instruments with Kitchin + 3H Sunspot + Venus synodic (e.g., crypto, grains) tend to show high volatility clustering due to cycle interference.

Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin | David Hickson

This market update focuses on the danger of symmetry in cycle analysis. Across all markets analyzed—S&P 500, NASDAQ, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin—the central theme is consistent: the risk of symmetrical M shapes forming within a larger bearish cycle context. While not yet confirmed, multiple signals—failed targets, breakdowns below FLDs, and weaker second peaks—suggest increasing downside risk. Confirmation will depend on upcoming price interactions with key FLD levels.

S&P 500: The analysis builds on a major cycle trough at the end of March. In the prior update, the 80-day cycle trough was identified as likely complete. Cycles typically generate M-shaped price structures: an initial rise to a peak, a decline to a mid-cycle trough (e.g., 40-day), followed by a second peak and eventual decline into the larger cycle trough. The recent structure formed a distorted, bullish M shape, where the second peak was not symmetrical but elevated.

 

Topping in symmetrical 20-week M structure, likely heading into 18-month trough around late August. 

[current average cycle periods in stacked, color-coded boxes at bottom right.] 

 

Attention now shifts to the larger 20-week cycle, which is also forming an M shape. The first leg ran from the late-March trough to a peak, followed by a decline into the mid-June 80-day trough. A key analytical risk is symmetry: a perfectly symmetrical M shape typically indicates a neutral market. However, the presence of an upcoming 18-month cycle trough—expected around August—implies a bearish context. When a cycle concludes into a higher-magnitude trough, the resulting M shape is typically bearish, characterized by a lower second peak and a stronger decline.

Following the June 80-day trough, price should rise before eventually turning down into the 18-month trough. The concern is that the current price action may be forming a symmetrical structure, signaling weakness. Price has struggled to rally, reinforcing this risk.

 

Examining interactions with the 20-day FLD (Future Line of Demarcation), price crossed above it after the 80-day trough (an A-category signal), but failed to reach its projected target—a first bearish sign. Subsequently, during formation of the 20-day cycle trough, price broke below the FLD instead of finding support, marking a second bearish signal. While not conclusive, this raises the probability of a bearish cycle. The next confirmation would be a failed attempt to reclaim the FLD. 

 

 

The thick blue dashed composite model line, which reconstructs price behavior based solely on cycle inputs, illustrates the symmetry risk clearly: a period of compression followed by a breakdown into the 18-month trough. This model is not predictive but conditional—if cycles persist as analyzed, this is the expected trajectory. The broader context includes a 54-month trough in October 2023 and an 18-month trough in April 2025, with the next 18-month trough projected for August.

The NASDAQ mirrors this structure. Its 80-day trough formed slightly earlier in June, followed by a move above the 20-day FLD that failed to meet its target and then reversed below it—again producing two bearish signals. A symmetrical M shape is also forming here, with similar downside risk into the 18-month trough.

 

Mirroring S&P with a failed FLD sequence, rolling over toward an August 18-month trough.

 

A remote bullish alternative exists: a triangular consolidation could represent a final base, with price breaking upward and shifting the 80-day trough forward. However, this would imply an extended cycle length (around 87 days vs. the typical 68), weakening the analysis. Confirmation would require a strong upward move through the FLD with target achievement.

The Australian ASX provides confirming evidence through Hurst’s principle of commonality, which observes that global markets tend to form troughs synchronously. The ASX identified the 20-week trough earlier than US markets and also formed its 80-day trough earlier. It now shows a similar setup: a potential bearish M shape with a lower second peak and a projected decline into an 18-month trough around late July or early August.

 

Late-stage M structure with residual strength, direction unresolved but biased down into late July–early August.

 

However, the ASX differs in that it successfully achieved certain FLD targets and even exceeded one, indicating residual bullish strength. Despite this, it later broke below the FLD again, signaling vulnerability. The next expected interaction (E-category) will determine direction: success implies continued strength; failure reinforces bearish symmetry. Notably, the composite model underestimated the recent peak, suggesting more bullishness than expected and raising the possibility of misidentified longer cycles.

In Gold, a major peak earlier in the year has maintained bearish pressure. A potential 80-day trough was identified, but price failed to confirm it by crossing above the FLD. Instead, price repeatedly found resistance at the FLD (GH interactions), leaving the trough unconfirmed.

 

Unconfirmed 80-day trough with repeated FLD rejection, likely weak bounce before continuing lower over the near term.

 

If a trough is forming, it would imply an unusually long cycle (~93 days), which is plausible for Gold. Confirmation requires a clean break above the FLD and target achievement. The composite model suggests a near-term bounce followed by renewed decline.

Bitcoin presents a more complex case. The prior analysis suggested a 20-week trough may have formed in early June, but this remains uncertain due to subsequent lower lows. If that trough is valid, the current 20-day cycle is exceptionally bearish—an early warning of broader weakness. Price initially crossed above the FLD (A-category), but failed to reach its target and then broke below the FLD, producing two bearish signals.

 

Structurally weakening; either already in a bearish 20-week cycle or still topping, with downside 

pressure building into the next few weeks to months within the current 18-month cycle.

 

Alternatively, the 20-week trough may still be forming, in which case the earlier FLD signal was anomalous. Cycle timing supports this ambiguity, as current price action aligns with expected trough timing based on average cycle length (~19.6 weeks).

Zooming out, Bitcoin has followed Hurst cycle rhythms closely. A 54-month trough formed in late 2022, followed by an 18-month trough in August 2024 (~593 days, slightly extended) and another candidate in February (~547 days, near ideal length). If this structure holds, Bitcoin is now in the final 18-month cycle of the current 54-month cycle. The first 18-month cycle was strongly bullish, the second moderately bullish, and the current one is showing early bearish characteristics—raising concern that the broader trend is turning down into the next major trough expected in 2027.

 

Reference:
David Hickson (June 29, 2026) - The Danger of Symmetry - Hurst Cycles Market Update (video)

 

See also:
David Hickson (June 15, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, NIFTY, DAX, Gold, BTC.

Christopher Grafton (June 29, 2026) - S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - heading towards the next 20 day cycle peak. Up.

Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC | David Hickson

In the prior update, we assessed whether the 80-day cycle trough formed early in mid-May or on schedule in early June. Most instruments pointed to a first-week-of-June trough. The key was a decisive test using Hurst’s Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), which now provides the evidence reviewed here.

S&P 500: Analysis continues to use a shortened nominal cycle model due to persistently compressed cycle lengths in US equities, particularly the SPX, while acknowledging the possibility that true Hurst wavelengths still govern. Under this framework, a potential 18-month trough was inferred on March 31 based on proximity to a 20-week trough, and an 80-day trough was projected for mid-May. 

 

[current average cycle periods in stacked, color-coded boxes at bottom right.] 

 

The validation mechanism was price behavior at the 20-day FLD: holding above it would confirm the trough, while breaking below would indicate it still lay ahead. In early June, price briefly held the FLD but broke below it on Friday, confirming the 80-day trough had not yet formed and signaling a reversion to standard Hurst cycle lengths.

Nasdaq: Expectation was likewise that the 80-day trough remained ahead unless price held above the FLD. Friday’s clean break below confirmed the trough was still pending and invalidated the early-trough scenario. 

 

 

The 18-month trough placement remains uncertain, though Sentient Trader identifies it at the end of March; if correct, the structure is bullish, as the market would be in the second 80-day cycle rather than the final one.

Australian ASX: Initial price action—an A-category move above the FLD combined with a nest of lows—suggested the trough had formed early. 

 

However, a subsequent break below the FLD disrupted that view, and although price later reclaimed the FLD in what is likely another A-category interaction, the structure remains less coherent than in US markets. With the 18-month trough still ahead, the market may still be in a bearish phase depending on its position within the cycle.

German DAX: Break below the FLD confirmed the 80-day trough had not yet formed. A nest of lows suggests it likely formed recently, and price has since moved back above the FLD in an A-category interaction. 

 

Even so, with the 18-month trough still ahead, downside risk remains if this is the final 80-day cycle within that larger structure.

Indian NIFTY-50: Price crossed above the 20-day FLD on Friday, confirming the 20-week trough formed earlier in the week and marking the start of a bullish phase.

 

 

Gold: Repeated failures at the FLD formed a GH interaction pair, confirming the 80-day trough had not yet formed at that time. It likely completed shortly after, around Thursday, June 11. 

 

 

While the near-term outlook is upward, an 18-month trough still lies ahead, implying potential future downside pressure.

Bitcoin: 20-week trough formed in the first week of June. FLD behavior showed a GH interaction followed by an A-category breakout, confirming the trough. Although the composite structure is somewhat atypical, the short-term bias remains bullish.

 

 

Reference:

David Hickson (June 15, 2026) The Power of Hurst's FLD - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video) 

 

See also:

Christopher Grafton (June 15, 2026) - S&P 500 Up (80D Trough) and Bitcoin Up (20W Trough).

Hurst 80-Day Cycle Low in SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC | David Hickson

The global market stands at a critical crossroads regarding the 80-day (or 20-week) cycle trough. Price action relative to the 20-day FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) serves as the ultimate macro decider across all major indices. Holding support or breaking cleanly above this line confirms the trough is behind us, validating a bullish continuation. Conversely, failing at or breaking below the FLD signals that a deeper cycle decline is still underway.

S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 maintains a strongly bullish bias, with the 80-day trough likely already in place after a brief 49-day run from the March 31 low. While officially phased as a 20-week trough, the immense underlying strength suggests a much larger 18-month cycle trough formed in late March, running significantly shorter than Hurst's nominal model at a recent average of 11.4 months.

 

S&P 500 (daily candles, April-June 2026): The 80-day trough is likely complete,

favoring an immediate bullish advance if price holds above the 20-day FLD this week.

However, at day 62 of a nominal 68-day cycle, the index implies about six days of remaining downside. 

 

This right-translated structure favors an immediate A-category upside continuation. The next minor 20-day cycle trough is due this week, where price must find support at the 20-day FLD to keep this bullish interpretation intact. A clean breakdown below the FLD invalidates the view and opens the door to lower lows.

NASDAQ: Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ analysis relies on Hurst's original nominal model, which indicates the 80-day cycle trough still lies ahead. At day 62 of a nominal 68-day cycle, the index implies about six days of remaining downside, pointing toward an F-category interaction that should drag price below the 20-day FLD. 

 

NASDAQ (daily candles, April-June 2026): The 80-day trough remains ahead with roughly

six days of downside expected, unless price invalidates this by holding above the 20-day FLD.

 

However, because the recent average wavelength is an unusually stretched 89.5 days, this phasing remains under scrutiny. The 20-day FLD is the key tactical level to resolve this model divergence: if price holds above the FLD instead of breaking down, the NASDAQ will pivot to match the S&P 500's bullish "trough-is-in" reality.

Australian ASX: The Australian market provides a clean, textbook cross-check for global commonality. The 80-day cycle trough formed precisely as anticipated, arriving roughly one week earlier than projected near the May 18 window. 

 

ASX (daily candles, April-June 2026):The 80-day trough is locked in, establishing

a textbook bullish advance that eyes a minor 20-day trough support level this week.

 

Price has since executed a flawless bullish sequence, crossing above the 20-day FLD via an A-category interaction, finding exact support on the retest, and resuming its march higher. Cycle projections should now be shifted forward, timing the next 20-day trough for this week—where it should again find support at the FLD—followed by a 40-day trough roughly three weeks later.

German DAX: The DAX confirms a high-confidence shorter-term sequence but offers less macro clarity due to choppy data continuity. The prevailing model suggests a 40-day trough formed in late April and the most recent low was merely a 20-day trough, meaning the 80-day decline has not yet occurred. 

 

DAX (daily candles, April-June 2026): The 80-day trough timing is unresolved, leaving

the directional bias strictly dependent on whether price holds or breaks the 20-day FLD. 

 

However, because the 80-day cycle whisker still encompasses this recent low, a definitive conclusion is impossible based on phasing alone. Just as with the US markets, the fixed-wavelength 20-day FLD will provide the final verdict through upcoming price interaction.

Nifty 50 (India): The Nifty 50 is actively diverging from global commonality, displaying an isolated bearish structure. Following an early-April 80-day trough and a mid-May 40-day trough, the index has already broken cleanly below its 20-day FLD in an F-category interaction. 

 

Nifty 50 (daily candles, April-June 2026): The index has broken below the 20-day FLD, diverging

from global markets as it heads into a major 20-week cycle trough due in two weeks. 

 

Rather than acting as a leading indicator that drags Western markets down, this breakdown reflects weaker-than-usual global synchronization for the Nifty. Price remains on track toward a major, projected 20-week cycle trough expected in roughly two weeks.

Gold (XAUUSD): Gold maintains a neutral-to-slightly bearish broader outlook, capped by a potentially massive, long-term cycle peak. In the near term, a classic GH-category interaction pair against the 20-day FLD strongly indicates that an 80-day cycle trough formed late last week, executing roughly seven days later than the recent average wavelength. 

 

Gold (daily candles, May-June 2026): Neutral-to-sluggish overall after forming an 80-day trough

last week, requiring a break above Friday's high to safely confirm a new upward advance.

 

Price has since teased an A-category breakout but recently slipped back below the FLD line, threatening a double GH interaction. A conservative entry requires waiting for price to clear Friday's high to confirm the new cycle advance and eliminate near-term downside risk.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bitcoin's underlying cycles are rapidly contracting, pulling its macro timeframe forward. Approximately 115 days have passed since the foundational 18-month cycle trough in February. While Hurst's nominal model projects a 136-day wavelength for the 20-week trough, compressed shorter cycles suggest this major nest of lows will arrive ahead of schedule, likely late this week. 

 

Bitcoin (daily candles, April-June 2026): Shorter cycles are compressing toward a major 20-week

nest of lows expected this week, where an FLD breakout will signal a powerful new advance.

 

A recent failure to sustain a breakout above the 20-day FLD confirmed a textbook GH-category resistance pair, proving the trough was not yet in. The next interaction with the 20-day FLD is critical: an aggressive A-category breakout will confirm the 20-week trough is structurally complete and launch a major upward advance.

Reference:
David Hickson (June 1, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Market Update: Was That The 80-Day Cycle trough? (video)

David Hickson (May 18, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, Gold, Bitcoin.  

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.  

 

41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Hurst Method Nominal Market

Cycle Chart by Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, 1985. 

 

The S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 bottomed in a 41-month Kitchin

cycle trough in late March 2026, approximately 3.5 years after their previous major low in October 2022.

 

See also:

Edward R. Dewey (1971) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Stocks. 

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting.

NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting | Larry Williams

Let's start with the three core market tools—often misunderstood and rarely used together effectively: 

 

■ Fundamentals determine value: Markets ultimately move for fundamental reasons, and value is rewarded over

    time—not necessarily today, this month, or even this year. A value-driven framework is indispensable. 

■ Technicals define the present: They reveal current market conditions—trend, momentum, overbought or

    oversold states.  

■ Cycles provide the edge: They project direction and timing, identifying when opportunities are most likely to

    emerge.

The process is straightforward: What has value? Where are we now? Where are we going? You need all three—none is sufficient on its own. We begin with cycles, specifically the NASDAQ, which has exhibited structural strength since 2009.

Bullish NASDAQ Cycle Analysis

Market cycles consist of recurring lows, rallies, and declines, but not all waves carry equal weight. Some phases are structurally stronger—and we are currently in one.

 

NASDAQ: In a dominant bullish cycle wave with typical June strength → August pause → higher continuation;

bias remains up, buy pullbacks.

 

A comparable wave (3.5-Year, 41-Month, or Kitchin Cycle) in 2016 produced a sustained rally. The current configuration is similar. Since 2023, the NASDAQ has been in a pronounced bullish cycle. While my primary focus is typically the NASDAQ, recent instability in the Dow has increased its relative importance this year. Current cycle positioning suggests the early stages of another strong upward phase—historically associated with meaningful advances.

NASDAQ Could Rally Again: Historically, this cycle turns higher in June roughly 90% of the time.

 

Why the NASDAQ Could Rally Again: Historically, this cycle turns higher in June roughly 90% of the time, experiences a modest pullback in August, and then continues upward. That pattern implies a constructive setup.

Markets do not require declines to rally. They often consolidate sideways before advancing—a behavior repeatedly observed. While many investors wait for pullbacks, the absence of weakness does not negate bullish conditions. My 2026 forecast anticipated higher prices and emphasized buying pullbacks—not waiting for a breakdown that may never materialize.

Dow Jones "Explosive Wave" Pattern 

The Dow is forming a recurring "explosive wave" structure: consolidation followed by a sharp advance. This sequence—sideways movement transitioning into a rapid rally—has repeated multiple times. 

 

DJIA: Sideways consolidation within "explosive wave" structure likely resolving into sharp upside move late June–August.

 

The current phase is a consolidation with a bullish bias. Historically, such setups resolve into strong moves, often beginning between late June and August. This pattern is relevant for longer-term positioning.

The expected mid-June low should be understood as a cycle low in the NASDAQ and DJIA—a tactical buying opportunity, not necessarily the absolute price bottom. The broader outlook remains intact: 2026 is a bull market year.

Inflation, as anticipated, has moved higher and remains closely linked to bond market dynamics. The longer-term trajectory still points toward declining interest rates into the early 2030s. This brings us to bonds.

Bond Market Setup & Seasonality

Bond seasonality is currently in a bullish phase, historically associated with rallies. Cycle analysis aligns with this timing, reinforcing the setup. The Money Flow Index indicates institutional accumulation—an early and important signal.

 

Bonds: Seasonal + cycle low with rising institutional accumulation signals an emerging rally; 

near-term dip is a tactical buy entry.

Institutional Positioning in Bonds: Professional money is rotating into bonds. Commitment of Traders data shows commercial participants holding their largest long position since 2023. Historically, markets tend to advance when large, informed participants accumulate. 

 

COT data shows commercial participants holding their largest long position since 2023. 

 

Combined with a seasonal low, a cycle low, and improving money flow, the evidence points to a high-probability buying zone.

 

Wait for short-term pullback, then enter in alignment with the broader cycle and seasonal trend.

 

Bond Market Strategy: On the daily timeframe, bonds are near a seasonal low with capital beginning to flow in. The tactical approach: wait for a short-term pullback, then enter in alignment with the broader cycle and seasonal trend. While the market has already begun to move higher, a near-term retracement would provide a more favorable entry.

Stay the course. There is no bear market. Despite persistent skepticism, the primary trend remains upward. The strategy is unchanged: buy pullbacks, not fear them. We are in a bull market.

Reference:

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - The Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. (video)

 

See also: 

Larry Williams (February 19, 2026) - 2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa. 

Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

David Hickson (May 18, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, Gold, Bitcoin.  

TPR (May 19, 2026) - Pre- and Post-Memorial Day Seasonal Patterns in US Stock Indexes. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

 NDR (January 21, 2026) - 2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential & Decennial Cycles.

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.  

W.D. Gann (2025) - The 10-Year Cycle. 

 

 A New Fed Chair is not All Doom & Gloom.

Kevin Warsh is now Fed Chair, reviving fears that markets "test" new leadership—citing Bernanke (2007–09 crisis), Greenspan (1987 crash), and Volcker (late-1970s inflation). Yet history does not show leadership changes reliably trigger downturns. Context: since 1930, the S&P 500’s average annual drawdown is 16.1% (bearish extreme), its average best rally is 25.9% (bullish extreme), and mean annual return is 8.0%.

Post–Fed leadership changes, S&P 500 performance is generally not bearish: except at the 3-month horizon, advance rates exceed a 60% bullish threshold and average returns are positive. If Eugene Meyer (Great Depression) and Greenspan (1987) are excluded as likely timing outliers, results improve further: all intervals show higher average returns and win rates; at 1 year, the S&P 500 averages +12.7% and is higher 90% of the time.