2026 in J.M. Funk’s "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression"

J.M. Funk’s theory, first articulated in his 1932 pamphlet "The 56-Year Cycle in American Business Activity", posits a recurring 56-year rhythm in US economic and business conditions, driven by a chain of cause-and-effect events influenced by human behavioral traits—such as aspiration, greed, and intemperance—and modulated by external rhythmic forces akin to solar cycles.

 

The cycle transcends intervening factors like wars, technological advancements, or monetary policy changes, manifesting as three major panic periods within each 56-year span, spaced at intervals of approximately 20, 20, and 16 years. The cycle's structure is visually represented in a circular chart, originally drafted by Funk and redrawn by financial astrologer David Williams in 1959 and 1982, which delineates key phases: "Accumulating Surplus" (thrift and investment buildup), "Absorbing Surplus Production" (rising prices and sales), "Panic and Dumping" (market collapse and liquidation), "Industrial Stagnation" (depression and low activity), and "Uncontrolled Production" (overexpansion leading to renewed prosperity).

Funk's chart illustrates historical alignments across centuries, with years marked along concentric rings and "needles" connecting equivalent points in successive cycles. For instance, sequences such as 1801–1857–1913–1969 and 1817–1873–1929–1985 highlight recurring panic epochs, while subcycles (e.g., 9-year intervals) link shorter-term fluctuations. Prosperity emerges from post-panic thrift, fostering confidence and investment; however, extended booms breed overproduction, fictitious credit, and speculation, culminating in collapse. The depth of ensuing depressions mirrors the prior expansion's scale, with stock market drawdowns historically ranging from 25% to 40% during panic phases.

According to the cycle's alignment, late 2025 corresponds to the "Panic. Dumping." phase, characterized by high prices giving way to forced selling, bank strains, and commodity price collapses—echoing historical precedents like the Panics of 1857 (30% NYSE decline amid railroad overextension) and 1913–1914 (40% drop triggered by European liquidations). The chart's central long needle explicitly ties 2025 to this vortex, projecting a major bear market. An outer-ring marker at 2024 signals "High Prices. Sell Save," aligning with the S&P 500's peak on November 29, 1968, and suggesting a comparable crest in late 2024. This transitions into 2026, marked on the inner ring as "Low Prices. Buy," corresponding to troughs in January and May 1970 and indicating the onset of recovery.

Observed drawdowns during prior "Panic and Dumping" epochs:
■ The Panic of 1857, corresponding to the 1857 position on the chart, saw the New York Stock Exchange decline by approximately 30%, driven by bank failures, railroad overextension, and commodity price collapses.
■ The 1913–1914 crisis, linked to the 1913 marker, resulted in a roughly 40% drop in stock prices by August 1914, precipitated by European liquidations and heightened geopolitical tensions.
■ The 1968–1970 bear market, directly analogous to the 2025–2026 projection via the cycle's 56-year rhythm, featured a 37% decline in the S&P 500 from its peak on November 29, 1968, to its trough on May 25, 1970.

Quantitative projections draw from the 1968–1970 parallel, shifted by precisely 20,454 days (equivalent to 56 solar years): The S&P 500 declined 37% from its November 1968 high to its May 1970 low. Despite the panic designation, the decennial pattern of US stocks introduces nuance: 2025, as the fifth year in a decade, historically yields positive returns (breaking a rare negative streak seen in 2005), potentially mitigating the downturn's severity. 

 

Supplementary analyses from related frameworks, such as Hurst cycles and seasonality (not part of Funk's original model), suggest the most probable initiation of a sustained contraction in late 2025, extending into Q1 2026—specifically January—with potential acceleration from seasonal weaknesses before stabilization. Magnitude remains speculative but could mirror the 37% 1968–1970 precedent, moderated by contemporary factors like Federal Reserve policy. 

See also: 

 TPR (2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression".

TPR (2015) - 2015 in J.M. Funk’s "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression". 

LCdr. David Williams (1959) - Astro-Economics.  

LCdr. David Williams (1982) - Financial Astrology.

 David McMinn (2023) - J.M. Funk and the 56-Year Cycle.

"Cosmic Cycles of Global Conjuncture" & Outlook into 2035 | Vladimir A. Belkin

Vladimir Belkin's 2014 study "Cosmic Cycles of Global Conjuncture" (КОСМИЧЕСКИЕ ЦИКЛЫ МИРОВОЙ КОНЪЮНКТУРЫ) synthesized the interconnections between solar activity cycles and global economic fluctuations. Belkin posited a robust inverse relationship between peaks in solar activity—measured via Wolf sunspot numbers—and subsequent declines in world output and US GDP growth, drawing on the fields of Heliobiology and Helioeconomics. Employing correlation and lagged regression analyses over extended historical periods, he demonstrated cyclical alignments with Juglar (7–11 years) and Kitchin (3–5 years) business cycles to forecast economic deterioration in 2014–2015.

Chart 1 above ("Kitchin and Juglar cycles of world output as a function of solar activity, 1961–2013.") illustrates Kitchin and Juglar cycles in world output (1961–2013) against lagged solar activity. Dual axes show Wolf numbers (left, solid line) peaking inversely to output growth (right, dashed line, one-year lag), with visual mirroring and R² ≈ 0.99 in segments, confirming short-term solar-driven volatility.

Extending this, chart 2 ("Kitchin and Juglar cycles in US GDP as a function of solar activity, 1798–2013.") applies the same to US GDP (1798–2013), demonstrating remarkable persistence over two centuries. The inverse pattern—solar peaks followed by GDP troughs—spans industrial revolutions and institutional changes, with a correlation of –0.88, underscoring the robustness of heliobiological influences on economic history.

Chart 3 ("Strong inverse relationship between cycles of world output and cycles of solar activity.") depicts the strong inverse between normalized world output cycles and solar activity (1961–2013 extended), with Wolf numbers (solid) and lagged growth index (dashed) as near-mirror images. A correlation of –0.87 highlights how solar rises precipitate growth falls, validating Belkin's claim of solar activity as a primary cycle determinant.

Focusing on extrema, chart 4 ("Strong inverse relationship between monthly extremes in Wolf numbers and annual world-output growth with a one-year lag.") presents a scatter plot of monthly Wolf peaks (x-axis) against annual world growth one year later (y-axis, 1964–2009), with a downward-sloping regression (R² = 0.7597). Higher solar maxima predict deeper slowdowns, offering a precise metric for crisis intensity.

Chart 5 ("Strong inverse relationship between the long cycle of world output and the long cycle of monthly solar-activity maxima.") addresses long cycles, plotting world output growth around solar maxima years (1968–2000, black line) against average Wolf numbers. A stepwise decline in growth per successive maximum (correlation –0.85) reveals secular trends, where weakening solar cycles since 1968 coincide with diminishing global expansions.

Complementing the above charts, Table 1 quantifies post-maxima declines: for solar peaks in 1968, 1979, 1989, and 2000, world growth fell by –2.90%, –2.01%, –2.42%, and –2.19% within two years, respectively. Belkin projected –2.38% for 2013 (delayed Cycle 24), forecasting a 2014–2015 downturn to ~2.0% growth, aligning with emerging-market vulnerabilities.

Collectively, this substantiates high statistical significance, with lags explaining physiological delays (e.g., geomagnetic storms reducing blood flow by 32–40%, fostering pessimism). Methodologically, Belkin employed:

• Lagged correlation analysis: Economic growth is regressed against solar activity with a one-year lag, reflecting delayed physiological impacts (e.g., solar maxima precede growth troughs). 
• Cycle decomposition: Juglar and Kitchin cycles are isolated via smoothing and differencing, then overlaid on solar series to visualize inversions.
• Regression modeling: Scatter plots with fitted lines quantify relationships, reporting R² and correlation coefficients (e.g., –0.87 to –0.88 overall).
• Forecasting via extrapolation: Historical patterns inform projections, adjusted for NASA solar forecasts (e.g., delayed Cycle 24 peak in 2013–2014).

Applying Belkin’s methodology to current solar forecasts yields the following calibrated projections for 2025–2035:

• 2025–2026: Cycle 25’s prolonged maximum (SSN peak 160.8 in Oct 2024, extending to mid-2025) signals imminent slowdown via the lagged inverse correlation (r ≈ –0.87; chart 3); expect global GDP deceleration of 2.0–2.5% from 2024 levels to 1.5–2.0%, mirroring Table 1’s –2.38% post-peak drop, with initial geomagnetic volatility worsening emerging-market risks (as in Belkin’s 2013–2014 forecast).
• 2027–2030: Cycle 25 minimum (2029–2030) reverses the trend, producing upswings similar to post-minimum recoveries (charts 1 and 2); secular weakening (chart 5) moderates amplitude, but growth should accelerate to 3.5–4.5% by 2029, driven by solar quiescence and reduced crisis propensity.
• 2031–2035: Cycle 26 onset (2029–2032 start, moderate SSN max ~131–160 ca. 2040–2043) brings rising solar activity that erodes gains per the inverse linkage (chart 4, R² = 0.76), yielding 1–2% cumulative drag by 2035 and possible mild recession if the cycle exceeds forecasts; overall 2025–2035 average growth 2.5–3.0% (chart 5 declining envelope), contingent on astrophysical accuracy.

Solar-timing uncertainties (e.g., exact Cycle 26 start) require integration with endogenous models, and post-2025 validation will refine accuracy.

Reference:
Vladimir A. Belkin (2014) - Cosmic Cycles of Global Conjuncture (КОСМИЧЕСКИЕ ЦИКЛЫ МИРОВОЙ КОНЪЮНКТУРЫ).

Vladimir A. Belkin holds a Doctorate in Economic Sciences and is a leading research scientist at the Chelyabinsk Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Professor of Economics, Finance, and Accounting at the Chelyabinsk Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Renowned for pioneering helioeconomics, his extensive publications—over 90 since 2008—explore inverse correlations between solar activity cycles and global economic fluctuations, with recent works (up to 2025) analyzing GDP growth and commodity prices.

See also:

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024)  - Economic Crises and Solar Activity Extrema: Calculation of the Fall in the World GDP Growth in 2025. 

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price. 

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - 2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity.   

Aleksander Valkov (2025) - Helioeconomics: Solar Cycles as the Hidden Pacemaker of Global Economic Fluctuations.

Leonty Miroshnichenko (2023) - Kondratiev Waves Aligned with Solar Cycles.  

Tatiana Alexandrovna Zenchenko & Tamara Konstantinovna Breus (2021) - The Possible Effect of Space Weather Factors on Various Physiological Systems of the Human Organism.

A 2020 first-light video from the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope captures solar granulation at unprecedented 30 km resolution in 705 nm light, revealing convection cells approximately the size of Texas, where hot plasma rises in bright centers and sinks along dark intergranular lanes, driving surface heat transfer while tiny magnetic bright points channel energy to the million-degree corona. Amid Solar Cycle 25's heightened activity—having peaked in late 2024 with elevated sunspot numbers exceeding initial forecasts—such high-resolution observations continue to refine models of solar flares and space weather impacts. 

Long-Term Commodity Cycles: Unraveling the Big Picture | Ahmed Farghaly

Cycle analysis, based on J.M. Hurst's framework, streamlines financial market navigation. Synchronized cycles—from long-term Methuselah, Enoch, Hegemony, and Kondratieff waves to short-term fluctuations—reveal historical patterns shaping current and future commodity market trends.

 

Methuselah Wave = 972-Year Cycle = three 324-Year Enoch Waves

Enoch Wave = two 162-Year Hegemony Waves 

Hegemony Wave = three 54-Year Kondratieff Waves

Kondratieff Wave = three 18-Year Kuznets Waves

Kuznets Wave = two 9-Year Juglar Waves 

Juglar Wave = two 54-Month Kitchin Cycles 

Kitchin Cycle = three 18-Month Cycles = six 40-Week Cycles

 

Long-Term Cycle Foundations

In July 1949, the 972-year Methuselah Wave, the 324-year Enoch Wave (starting 1673), the 162-year Hegemony Wave, the 54-year Kondratieff Wave, and all shorter cycles converged at their lows (see list above). The current Enoch Wave is projected to trough again around 2263, the Hegemony Wave around 2107, and the Kondratieff Wave, which last bottomed in March 2003, around 2055. These synchronized cycles frame long-term commodity and market trends, with the Enoch and Kondratieff waves signaling sustained commodity appreciation through 2100 and 2032, respectively, while the Hegemony Wave suggests a future correction.

Commodity Price Index (yearly bars) from 1250 to 2025:

 324-Year Enoch Waves, 162-Year Hegemony Waves, 54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves.

Kuznets Cycle and Historical Parallels

The current Kuznets cycle, an 18-year wave, began with a trough between March and June 2020, mirroring the 1720 cycle that drove a 61-year commodity rise peaking in 1781. Now 5.33 years into this phase, the cycle aligns with late 2008, following the 2003 post-SARS trough. Since 2020, sharp advances in equities and commodities, alongside rising inflation, reflect historical post-trough patterns. Extended cycles indicate the current commodity uptrend may peak near 2100, with sustained inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions persisting, punctuated by seasonal corrections within the Hegemony and Kondratieff waves.

 

Commodity Price Index (quarterly bars) from 1750 to 2025: 

 972-Year Methuselah Wave, 162-Year Hegemony Waves, 54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves.

Kondratieff Seasons and Projections

The last Kondratieff Summer peak occurred in 1980, seven years after the 1973 energy price shock, with the current summer peak projected around 2032, coinciding with the Kuznets peak in the second cycle of the 9-year Juglar wave. A 5–6-year correction is anticipated into around 2037, followed by a commodity recovery marking the Kondratieff Fall Season, characterized by disinflation and equity bubbles. Winter deflation is expected to follow, driving declines in commodities and equities.

 

Commodity Price Index (monthly bars) from 1900 to 2025: 

54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves.

 

Short-Term Cycle Dynamics

Within the Kuznets cycle, commodities and equities align with nested 9-year Juglar and 54-month Kitchin cycles. The current Kitchin cycle post-2024 is expected to drive a 26-month commodity rally, peaking around 2028 in its third 18-month subcycle, mirroring 2008–2011 patterns. Six 18-month subcycles and twelve 40-week cycles provide granular short-term projections. The commodity index is projected to rise through Q1 2026 and into 2028 before the first Juglar-wave correction.

Commodity Price Index (weekly bars) from 1995 to 2025:

 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves, 54-Month Kitchin Cycles, 18-Month Cycles, 40-Week Cycles.

 

S&P 500 (quarterly bars) from 1800 to 2025: 
162-Year Hegemony Waves, 54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves.

 

» The principle of confirmation [20-week VTL] on display. «

 Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 (daily bars) from July 2024 to October 2025. 

18-Month Cycles, 40-Week Cycles, 20-Week Cycles, 80-Day Cycles, 40-Day Cycles, 20-Day Cycles.

 

» Assuming the S&P 500 is in the first bullish half of the third and last 18-month cycle within the current 54-month cycle (which allegedly began in October 2022), and there is no uplifting and dominant influence of the 9-year, 18-year, or 54-year cycles, the upcoming 40-week cycle peak, anticipated around late September to early October, would be a long-term market top. «  

 

Implications and Geopolitical Context

All cycles except the Hegemony Wave signal continued commodity price rises, with the Kuznets cycle supporting a 26-month rally, the Kondratieff wave projecting growth through 2032, and the Enoch wave indicating strength toward 2100. Current trends diverge from historical analogues, suggesting higher peaks. Inflation is expected to persist through 2032, with a commodity correction into 2037. The final Kuznets swing within the Hegemony Wave may trigger significant disruption, potentially signaling the decline of an old world order and the rise of a new one. Rising commodity prices continue to reflect heightened geopolitical tensions.

 

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (October 17, 2025) - Long-Term Commodity Cycles: Unraveling the Big Picture.

 

 WWII's effect on commodity prices counteracted the expected post-1919 bear market, 

resulting in a higher-than-expected 1949 low which J.M. Hurst termed a "straddled trough."

» Inflation will persist until century's end due to a long-term cycle. «

 

See also: 

Ahmed Farghaly (October 6, 2025) - High Inflation: We are in Kondratieff's "Summer of Summer". 

Ahmed Farghaly (2016) - The 162-Year Cycle in Stocks and Commodities Since 1509.

Ron William (2022) - Is the Big Cycle Turning? 

Nikolai Kondratieff (1926) - Gold Production Mirrors the Long Wave, It Doesn’t Drive It.

The S&P 500 Has Just Triggered a Death Cross | Guilherme Tavares

On April 14th, the S&P 500 triggered a 'death cross.' This occurs when its 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, historically signaling potential declines, as seen in March 2022, though not always predictive of major downturns.

» That's it folks. Place your bets. «

Guilherme Tavares, April 17, 2025.

However, the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio (P/E Ratio CAPE), exceeding two standard deviations above its long-term trend, suggests overvaluation, aligning with past market peaks in November 1929, October 2000, and March 2022. Previous instances of this combined signal preceded significant longer term market corrections.

The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio, also known as the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio, is calculated by dividing 

the current price of the S&P 500 by the 10-year moving average of its inflation-adjusted earnings.

The March 2022 and the April 2025 death crosses in the S&P 500 (daily bars).

S&P 500 Forward Returns when there is a 'Death Cross' (1953-2022).

» Should we care? Yes, we should. The forward-looking data isn't the best going out 6 months (red box). «

Grant Hawkridge, April 7, 2025.

The above table lists death cross events in the S&P 500 from 1953 to 2022, and provides forward returns over various time horizons (6 days, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year) after each event:

• Short-term returns (6 days) are volatile, with 11 of 18 instances showing negative returns. The average loss is small, suggesting the immediate impact of a death cross is inconsistent. For example, the +8.63% gain in 1962 contrasts with the -11.51% loss in 1978, indicating no clear directional bias in the very short term.
• One-month returns lean bearish, with 13 of 18 instances negative. The worst case (-12.75% in 1929) aligns with the Great Depression’s onset, while the best case (+8.66% in 1978) shows occasional rebounds. The negative average suggests a death cross often precedes short-term weakness, though not always severe.
• Three-month returns are more consistently negative, with 14 of 18 instances showing losses. The -22.13% drop in 1929 reflects extreme market stress, while the +14.91% gain in 1962 is an outlier. The stronger negative average (-3.16%) indicates that death crosses often signal broader market declines over a few months.
• The six-month period shows the most pronounced bearish tendency, with 14 of 18 instances negative. The -35.97% loss in 1929 is the worst, tied to the Great Crash, while the +28.21% gain in 2020 reflects the rapid recovery post-COVID crash. The -4.81% average loss, emphasized in the table, suggests a death cross is a stronger bearish signal over this horizon, though exceptions exist.
• One-year returns are mixed, with 10 of 18 instances positive. The +64.41% gain in 2020 is the highest, driven by post-COVID stimulus, while the -44.95% loss in 1929 is the lowest. The positive average (+1.97%) suggests that, over a year, the market often recovers or stabilizes after a death cross, reducing its long-term predictive power.

NDX's powerful 3.5-year cycle suggests the bigger trend should

be down into mid 2026. Branimir Vojcic, April 17, 2025.

3 dominant cycles on NDX daily chart say up into late May. 

Branimir Vojcic, April 17, 2025.

Composite of the S&P 1965, 1998, and 2018 analogues (pink line), Namzes, April 18, 2025.

S&P 1998 vs 2025 Analogue (correlation = 96.6%; Lag = 9,695 days = 26.54 years),

Namzes, April 18, 2025.

See also:

Guilherme Tavares (April 14, 2025) - What Follows a 9%+ S&P 500 Day Below the 200-DMA.

Namzes (April 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation.

Moore Research (April 10, 2025) - DJIA 1926 vs 2025 Analogue = 97% Correlation.

Yuriy Matso (April 8, 2025)  - S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

Subu Trade (April 18, 2025)  - Markets Report: is the worst over for stocks? We're in Phase 3 of the bottoming process.

S&P 500 1969 vs 2025 | Yuriy Matso

 S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

 

In J.M. Funk's chart of the "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression," the year 2025 belongs to the sequence of 1801-1857-1913-1969. This sequence is [...] labeled "Panic. Dumping."

 

S&P 500 2025 vs 1969 = J.M. Funk’s 56-Year Cycle.

 Not always exactly to the day, but often close. Directions are more important than levels.

 

Note: Hurst cycles point to a mid-April low and a major mid-May low.

Reference:

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

» We are currently in a bearish 80-day cycle, with a downside target set at 4,660. «

Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Elliott Wave projection with a final retracement into the end of March, 

followed by a decline into mid-May, below the August 2024 low.

S&P 500 is ready for the next, and final leg up. With price confirming a bullish WXY model at Friday's 5,603 low, I am expecting one more leg up under the 2nd wave targeting 5,750-5,825 to set up for the ultra bearish 3/4/5 wave sequence.

S&P 500 (3-day bars) - Elliott Wave count projecting a decline into late Q1 2026, 

below the October 2023 low.

 

The 16-year rally ended at the 6,147 high with a bearish ending diagonal formation. We're now in the early stages of a catastrophic decline, and price is expected to break this 6-month range escalating much lower. Although I mirrored the path of the 2007-09 crash, this week's rally could easily be the last chance to sell before a 40-60% decline. 

Reference:

Trigger Trades, March 22 & 23, 2025.

 

 

Late-March Rebound: Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen 18 times between March 23 and April 27.
Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023). Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

 

2025 Roadmap for the S&P 500 based on Spectrum Cycle Analysis,

with the ideal Q1 low being March 28, 2025, which will set up the final leg up. 

Namzes on X, January 6, 2025.

 

S&P 500 projection for 2025 (timing, not magnitude) with seasonally strong windows in the bottom panel.

Namzes on X, January 6, 2025.

 

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Kitchin Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

 

Weekly Preview for March 24-28: Short term cycles - early next week 20d low then higher,
Krasi, March 22, 2025.

 80 Day Low in mid March, and 20 Week Low in mid May.

David Hickson (March 10, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update.

 

S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

See also:

¡¡ David Hickson (March 24, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update: Targets and Levels to Watch. (video) !!

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 21, 2025) - End of Q1 – Prone to Volatility and Weakness since 1990.

TPR (March 11, 2025) - S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle.

  Lars von Thienen (December 8, 2024) - The Cliff - Don't Be a Lemming. 

Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.

 TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.