Showing posts with label Gleissberg Cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gleissberg Cycle. Show all posts

Friday, February 14, 2025

Long-Range Solar Activity Forecast & 2025 US Drought | Theodor Landscheidt

Drought is the most serious physical hazard to agriculture. In the US, the 'Dust Bowl' droughts of the 1930s and 1950s are the most severe examples of the devastating effects of extended periods of dryness. In the 1930s, drought virtually covered the entire Plains for almost a decade. Many crops were damaged by deficient rainfall, high temperatures, strong winds, insect infestations, and dust storms.

» A drought peak is to be expected from 2025 on, and should last about five years. « 
Theodor Landscheidt, 2004.
 
The resulting agricultural depression contributed to the Great Depression's bank closures, business losses, and increased unemployment. These hardships sent economic and social ripples throughout the country. Millions of people migrated from the drought areas in search of work, resulting in conflicts between the newcomers and the long-established residents, as well as overburdened relief and health agencies.
 
»
The sun's varying activity provides a means to predict US droughts many years before.«

[...] It is a notable step forward that the sun's varying activity provides a means to predict US droughts many years before the respective event. I have shown that ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) events, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), extremes in global temperature anomalies, drought in Africa, and European floods are linked to cycles in the sun's orbital motion around the center of mass of the solar system. Figure 1 demonstrates that such a relationship also exists between US droughts and solar cycles.

 Figure 1 shows the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the US from 1900 to 2001. Green (GPTC, Greatest Perturbation in Torque Cycle) and blue (LPTC, Least Perturbation in Torque Cycle) triangles mark solar cycle phases. Before 1934, GPTC was linked to droughts, and LPTC to wet periods. After 1934, this reversed, with LPTC linked to droughts and GPTC to wet periods. Figure 2 presents smoothed data from Figure 1, emphasizing the phase reversal after 1934. The pattern has been stable since then, suggesting it will continue for decades.

The brown curve represents the raw monthly values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2001. This index was devised by Palmer (1965) to indicate the severity of dry and wet spells over the contiguous US. It uses monthly temperature and precipitation data and the Available Water Content (AWC) of the soil, also called soil-water holding capacity. It is based on the supply-and-demand concept of the water balance equation, taking into account more than just the precipitation deficit at specific locations. It is standardized to local climate, so that it can be applied to any part of the country to demonstrate relative drought and rainfall conditions. The US Department of Agriculture uses it to determine when to grant emergency drought assistance.
 
US Drought Monitor, February 11, 2025.

 
Palmer values lag emerging droughts by several months, but respond reliably to weather conditions that have been abnormally dry or wet. The vertical scale in Figure 1 indicates the percentage of the US area affected by moderate to extreme drought. In 1934 the PDSI reached a maximum value of 63 percent. The green and blue triangles in Figure 1 mark special phases in solar motion cycles that can be computed. 
 
[...] By now, these forecasts have turned out correct without exception. Strangely, this has not sent any ripples throughout official science though it is a proclaimed aim of scientific endeavour to make human life easier by dependable forecasts. The rate of change of the sun’s orbital angular momentum L, the rotary force dL/dt driving the sun’s orbital motion (torque), forms a torque cycle with a mean length of 16 years. Perturbations in the sinusoidal course of this cycle recur at quasi-periodical intervals and mark zero phases of a perturbation cycle (PC) with a mean length of 35.8 years. As to details, I refer to Figure 2 in my on-line paper "Solar Eruptions Linked to North Atlantic Oscillation". In Figure 1 presented here, zero phases of the PC are marked by green triangles and the label GPTC (Greatest perturbation in the torque cycle). Blue triangles labelled LPTC (Least perturbation in the torque cycle) mark phases of minimal perturbation.

» 2025 starts a climate instability not seen since the early 1600s. « Simon Hunt, 2025.

I have shown that these phases indicate the peaks of warm PDO regimes and the coolest phases of cold PDO regimes. In 
Figure 1 they are closely linked to extended dry and wet spells. Obviously, there is a phase reversal in the connection just after the PDSI had reached an exceptionally high value of 63 percent in 1934. The instability inherent in these conditions seems to have contributed to the phase reversal, a phenomenon often observed in solar-terrestrial cycles. Before the phase reversal, GPTC (green triangle) coincided with drought conditions and LPTC (blue triangle) with wet conditions. In the latter case, this is easier to see in Figure 2 with data subjected to 4-year moving window Gaussian kernel smoothing.

After the drought peak in 1934 the relationship is reversed. Now LPTCs (blue triangles) consistently go along with drought peaks and GPTCs (green triangles) with wet periods. This pattern has been stable since 1934 and should continue to be stable for many decades as it is modulated by a cycle of 179 years. So the next extended wet period should begin around 2007 and last about 7 to 8 years, as can be derived from 
Figure 1. A drought peak, indicated by LPTC (blue triangle) is to be expected from 2025 on, and should last about five years.

See also:

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Markets Amidst Trump 2.0: Geopolitics & Geoeconomics in 2025 | Simon Hunt

In recent years, I have analyzed several long-term cycles, including demographic, economic, weather, war, inflation, and interest rate cycles. To my surprise, they all appear to converge around 2028. While geopolitical tensions will likely remain tense in 2025, the ultimate crisis may emerge as these cycles align.


Continuing US Economic Decline and Stock Market Crash by September 2025
The US economy is weaker than portrayed. Employment data, revised down for the first quarter, shows a likely weak second quarter, with retail sales, adjusted for inflation, declining last year. Big US companies will be laying off thousands. The Biden administration has inflated economic indicators, but the reality is far bleaker.

 S&P 500 Bull-Trap Reversal, Rotation Fragility, and Cycle Risk in 2025.

I anticipate a sharp stock market drop by September 2025, with the S&P 500, the NASDAQ and tech stocks (Mag 7) falling by 20% to 40%, respectively. By Q4, Trump’s policies—tax cuts, deregulation—will take effect, and governments will likely respond with fiscal and monetary stimulus. Over the next few years, equity, base metal, and precious metal markets may surge. This will be highly inflationary, possibly mirroring the 1980s, when US CPI surpassed 13% and global inflation hit 15%. The key question will be the impact on long-term bond yields. Bond vigilantes will likely push 10-year US Treasury yields into double digits, with similar trends globally (excluding China), leading to a crash in asset prices, especially in an already highly leveraged system with a 360% debt-to-GDP ratio. 
 
The primary drivers of inflation are excess liquidity and rising wages, along with a trend where a larger share of wages is being allocated to capital on corporate balance sheets. I expect US CPI to remain elevated, with the official CPI possibly reaching 13%, mirroring 1980 levels. However, John Williams of Shadow Government Stats estimates the real CPI averaged 10.8% last year. This persistent inflation will push long-term interest rates into double digits, likely triggering a crash in the debt-laden global system. Comparing current inflation to the 1970s, we see a pattern of volatility, with asset prices potentially deflating before structural inflation resurges, driving CPI to double digits.

Empire Cycle, Risks of War, BRICS, and the Emergence of a Multipolar World Order
Today we have two major powers—one established (US), the other emerging (China)—each with conflicting goals. One seeks to maintain global dominance, while the other rejects that vision. The only resolution could be through a significant crisis, possibly war. Afterward, we might see the emergence of a multipolar world, but this will likely take place in the early to mid-2030s, once we’ve gone through the crisis. The empire cycle, as outlined by voices like Ray Dalio, typically culminates in revolutions, internal conflicts, and proxy wars, followed by political and debt restructuring before a new world order emerges.
 
 Geopolitical tensions will continue to simmer through 2027,
with open conflict likely not breaking out until 2028.

The current geopolitical and geoeconomic picture is shaped by several major cycles: Since 1991, and potentially as far back as 1946, the US has sought to weaken Russia in order to control its vast natural resources. Simultaneously, China has emerged as America’s primary competitor, and to maintain hegemony, the US must constrain its rise. A related theme is Washington’s growing concern over the BRICS nations, which, if they mature into a serious rival, could undermine US dominance, particularly over the dollar. The war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East fit into this broader geopolitical strategy. Israel has long served as America’s foothold in the Persian Gulf, and a key aim of Trump’s foreign policy could be to disrupt the China-Russia alliance while isolating Iran, given their strong ties. The US has already made progress in Brazil, where key ministries are anti-BRICS and pro-Washington, with President Lula aware of the risks of opposing the US. Despite potential challenges for BRICS under Brazil’s leadership, the group’s recent expansion with Indonesia’s full membership is a significant shift, especially in South Asia.

Geopolitical concerns are at the forefront for many investors, and they’re my primary worry. It’s not a matter of if war will happen, but when. Geopolitical tensions will continue to simmer through 2027, with open conflict likely not breaking out until 2028, though this is my best-case scenario. In the worst-case scenario, Israel, after defeating Hamas and Hezbollah, may decide to attack Iran. In response, Iran would retaliate with overwhelming force, using advanced missile technology, including hypersonic missiles, capable of bypassing Israeli and US defense systems. While the risk of war is high before 2028, I believe open conflict will likely occur no sooner than then.
 
Weather Cycles, Severe Drought in the US in 2025, and Global Food Supply Shortages by 2026
However, one cycle that remains largely unaddressed but could disrupt Trump’s domestic agenda is the weather cycle. This cycle, particularly the Gleissberg cycle, a 90-year pattern, is aligning with US drought cycles for the first time since the 1930s. This could mirror the impact of the Dust Bowl. As the cycle begins to take effect this year, reports from areas like Pennsylvania indicate food shortages—beef and chicken in particular—which could drive soaring food prices by 2026. This will pose significant challenges for Trump’s efforts to regenerate America, especially considering the global nature of this issue, as the US is a major food exporter.

Shawn Hackett on weather cycles, their relationship to price action in agricultural commodities,
and the potential for a major drought in the US in 2025 based on the 89-year Gleissberg cycle. (see also [HERE])

The weather disruptions are linked to a shift in the Atlantic Ocean’s cycle, transitioning from a 40-year warming phase to a cooling phase starting in 2025. Historical parallels show that this cooling period could cause extreme weather, including shorter growing seasons and disrupted food production. Additionally, the Sun’s quiet phase, along with the 60-year Yoshimura planetary temperature cycle and the 90-year Gleissberg cycle, will likely exacerbate these effects, creating a pattern of climate instability not seen since the early 1600s. This emerging cycle, largely overlooked, could lead to global food supply shortages and soaring food prices, impacting markets, debt, and interest rates.

Two-Year Commodity Boom: Rising Food, Crude Oil, Copper, and Gold Prices
Food prices are expected to rise sharply, and by 2026, oil prices are likely to increase despite efforts by President Trump. Disruptions, such as sanctions on Iran, could lead to China sourcing oil from Russia instead. By 2028, oil prices could surpass $150. Once inflation cycles begin, they often become self-perpetuating as people hedge by buying in advance and companies stockpile goods. For example, copper prices could double from $7,000 to $14,000 by late 2027, reflecting the inflationary dynamics at play.
 
While commodities are underperforming equities, they are relatively cheap and primed for a rebound, especially with inflationary pressures. Precious metals have already shown strength, and sectors like energy and food may follow, particularly if weather disruptions occur. Although we won't enter a supercycle until the early 2030s, we could see a two-year commodity boom. This period will set the stage for a return to 4% global GDP growth, marking the true supercycle.

 Although we won't enter a Commodity Supercycle until the early 2030s
we could see a two-year commodity boom.

Gold had a remarkable 40% rise last year, signaling inflation concerns and currency instability. Central banks are diversifying into tangible assets like gold, and both China and Russia hold significant, underreported gold reserves. If China’s currency faces pressure, it could announce gold backing, possibly from its 25,000 tons of gold. Russia holds about 12,000 tons. The BRICS nations may also introduce a gold-backed currency in the next five years, further driving gold's upward trajectory over the next decade.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Decline to 0.90 by the End of 2025, and as Low as 0.65 by 2028
The dollar, often referred to as the "king of currencies," is expected to peak around 110 on the dollar index in the coming months before beginning a decline. By the end of 2025, it may hover closer to 0.90, and by 2026, closer to 0.80. By 2028, the dollar could fall as low as 0.65, marking a substantial decline ahead. Policies such as trade tariffs could impact the dollar, with some close to the Trump camp suggesting he may favor a weaker dollar to boost exports. However, the broader trend is clear: increasing trade among BRICS nations, excluding the dollar, will reduce demand for the currency.

China's Economic Recovery in 2025 and Bull Market into 2028
Despite recent challenges, the Chinese equity market has surged, suggesting potential for an inflection point. A key shift in China is the transition to collective decision-making, moving away from President Xi’s sole influence, likely driving fiscal and monetary expansion. I expect a sharp recovery in China’s economy in the latter half of 2025, boosting global performance. The Shanghai Composite will likely mirror global market trends—approaching a peak, followed by a correction, and then a bull market into 2028. Despite negative narratives, China’s consumer spending is up 10%, and the property market appears to be bottoming out. Consumption patterns are shifting, but not necessarily unfavorably.
 
 
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