Drought is the most serious physical hazard to agriculture. In the US, the 'Dust Bowl' droughts of the 1930s and 1950s are the most severe examples of the devastating effects of extended periods of dryness. In the 1930s, drought virtually covered the entire Plains for almost a decade. Many crops were damaged by deficient rainfall, high temperatures, strong winds, insect infestations, and dust storms.
» A drought peak is to be expected from 2025 on, and should last about five years. «
Theodor Landscheidt, 2004.
The resulting agricultural depression contributed to the Great Depression's bank closures, business losses, and increased unemployment. These hardships sent economic and social ripples throughout the country. Millions of people migrated from the drought areas in search of work, resulting in conflicts between the newcomers and the long-established residents, as well as overburdened relief and health agencies.
[...] It is a notable step forward that the sun's varying activity provides a means to predict US droughts many years before the respective event. I have shown that ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) events, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), extremes in global temperature anomalies, drought in Africa, and European floods are linked to cycles in the sun's orbital motion around the center of mass of the solar system. Figure 1 demonstrates that such a relationship also exists between US droughts and solar cycles.
Figure 1 shows the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the US from 1900 to 2001. Green (GPTC, Greatest Perturbation in Torque Cycle) and blue (LPTC, Least Perturbation in Torque Cycle) triangles mark solar cycle phases. Before 1934, GPTC was linked to droughts, and LPTC to wet periods. After 1934, this reversed, with LPTC linked to droughts and GPTC to wet periods. Figure 2 presents smoothed data from Figure 1, emphasizing the phase reversal after 1934. The pattern has been stable since then, suggesting it will continue for decades.
The brown curve represents the raw monthly values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2001. This index was devised by Palmer (1965) to indicate the severity of dry and wet spells over the contiguous US. It uses monthly temperature and precipitation data and the Available Water Content (AWC) of the soil, also called soil-water holding capacity. It is based on the supply-and-demand concept of the water balance equation, taking into account more than just the precipitation deficit at specific locations. It is standardized to local climate, so that it can be applied to any part of the country to demonstrate relative drought and rainfall conditions. The US Department of Agriculture uses it to determine when to grant emergency drought assistance.
Palmer values lag emerging droughts by several months, but respond reliably to weather conditions that have been abnormally dry or wet. The vertical scale in Figure 1 indicates the percentage of the US area affected by moderate to extreme drought. In 1934 the PDSI reached a maximum value of 63 percent. The green and blue triangles in Figure 1 mark special phases in solar motion cycles that can be computed.
[...] By now, these forecasts have turned out correct without exception. Strangely, this has not sent any ripples throughout official science though it is a proclaimed aim of scientific endeavour to make human life easier by dependable forecasts. The rate of change of the sun’s orbital angular momentum L, the rotary force dL/dt driving the sun’s orbital motion (torque), forms a torque cycle with a mean length of 16 years. Perturbations in the sinusoidal course of this cycle recur at quasi-periodical intervals and mark zero phases of a perturbation cycle (PC) with a mean length of 35.8 years. As to details, I refer to Figure 2 in my on-line paper "Solar Eruptions Linked to North Atlantic Oscillation". In Figure 1 presented here, zero phases of the PC are marked by green triangles and the label GPTC (Greatest perturbation in the torque cycle). Blue triangles labelled LPTC (Least perturbation in the torque cycle) mark phases of minimal perturbation.
I have shown that these phases indicate the peaks of warm PDO regimes and the coolest phases of cold PDO regimes. In Figure 1 they are closely linked to extended dry and wet spells. Obviously, there is a phase reversal in the connection just after the PDSI had reached an exceptionally high value of 63 percent in 1934. The instability inherent in these conditions seems to have contributed to the phase reversal, a phenomenon often observed in solar-terrestrial cycles. Before the phase reversal, GPTC (green triangle) coincided with drought conditions and LPTC (blue triangle) with wet conditions. In the latter case, this is easier to see in Figure 2 with data subjected to 4-year moving window Gaussian kernel smoothing.
After the drought peak in 1934 the relationship is reversed. Now LPTCs (blue triangles) consistently go along with drought peaks and GPTCs (green triangles) with wet periods. This pattern has been stable since 1934 and should continue to be stable for many decades as it is modulated by a cycle of 179 years. So the next extended wet period should begin around 2007 and last about 7 to 8 years, as can be derived from Figure 1. A drought peak, indicated by LPTC (blue triangle) is to be expected from 2025 on, and should last about five years.
I have shown that these phases indicate the peaks of warm PDO regimes and the coolest phases of cold PDO regimes. In Figure 1 they are closely linked to extended dry and wet spells. Obviously, there is a phase reversal in the connection just after the PDSI had reached an exceptionally high value of 63 percent in 1934. The instability inherent in these conditions seems to have contributed to the phase reversal, a phenomenon often observed in solar-terrestrial cycles. Before the phase reversal, GPTC (green triangle) coincided with drought conditions and LPTC (blue triangle) with wet conditions. In the latter case, this is easier to see in Figure 2 with data subjected to 4-year moving window Gaussian kernel smoothing.
After the drought peak in 1934 the relationship is reversed. Now LPTCs (blue triangles) consistently go along with drought peaks and GPTCs (green triangles) with wet periods. This pattern has been stable since 1934 and should continue to be stable for many decades as it is modulated by a cycle of 179 years. So the next extended wet period should begin around 2007 and last about 7 to 8 years, as can be derived from Figure 1. A drought peak, indicated by LPTC (blue triangle) is to be expected from 2025 on, and should last about five years.
Quoted from:
Theodor Landscheidt (2004) - Long-Range Forecast of U.S. Drought Based on Solar Activity.
Theodor Landscheidt (2004) - Long-Range Forecast of U.S. Drought Based on Solar Activity.
See also:
Carlos Garcia-Mata & Felix Ira Shaffner (1934) - Solar and Economic Relationships: A Preliminary Report.
Alexander Chizhevsky (1924) - The Physical Factors of the Historical Process.
Alexander Chizhevsky (1924) - The Physical Factors of the Historical Process.
L.H. Weston (1923) - The Art of Forecasting Wheat Prices by the Use of Harmonic Cycles.
William Stanley Jevons (1875) - Sunspots and the Price of Corn and Wheat.
William Stanley Jevons (1875) - Sunspots and the Price of Corn and Wheat.
