Showing posts with label Cycles of War. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cycles of War. Show all posts

Thursday, February 12, 2026

Heliocentric Uranus Cycle and American War (2026-2033) | Bradley F. Cowan

Beyond its well-documented influence on financial markets, the heliocentric cycle of Uranus correlates with the periodicity of American wars. To demonstrate this, Bradley F. Cowan’s analysis utilizes the planet’s 84-year orbit—divided into 21-year quarters—anchoring it specifically to the heliocentric United States Natal Chart of July 4, 1776.

Heliocentric Uranus Squares and American War (1776–1962)

While every 21-year quarter-cycle (90°) exerts pressure, it is the full 84-year return that manifests with particular violence. This periodicity suggests a generational rhythm: it appears to require four generations for the collective memory of war’s horrors to fade, thereby clearing the stage for a recurrence of major conflict.
 
The Gemini Conjunction: The US Natal Return
Gemini is the ruling sign of the United States, as defined by the planetary locations at the nation's birth. Historical analysis reveals that the most existential threats to the nation—those redefining its government and claiming the most lives—occur when Uranus returns to its natal position in Gemini. The sensitive sector for these events lies between 10° and 12° Gemini (70° to 72° from the heliocentric starting point of Aries)
 
Revolutionary War (The Natal Anchor): The cycle is anchored by the Declaration of Independence in 1776. At this founding moment, Uranus was positioned at 10° Gemini.
 Civil War (First Return): One complete 84-year heliocentric cycle later, the firing on Fort Sumter in April 1861 marked the start of the Civil War. Uranus had returned to 13° Gemini. The conflict concluded in 1865 as Uranus exited the sign.
 World War II (Second Return): The second return (168 years after 1776) coincided with World War II. The war in Europe ended in 1945 precisely as Uranus reached 14° Gemini.
 Pre-National History: Projecting the cycle backward, we see the pattern in the colonial era. The arrival of settlers in Jamestown in 1607 occurred with Uranus at 6° Gemini; the colony faced near-extinction in 1610 as Uranus hit 18°. One cycle later, King William's War (1689–1697) concluded as Uranus left Gemini.


The Quarters: Squares and Oppositions
While the conjunctions in Gemini mark existential crises, the quarter-cycles (squares and oppositions relative to the US chart) correlate with other forms of warfare.

 The Sagittarius Opposition (180°): The sign of Sagittarius lies directly opposite the US natal Uranus. Transits here have coincided with "minor" wars. The War of 1812 ended when Uranus was at 6° Sagittarius, and the Spanish-American War concluded in 1898 with the planet at 5° Sagittarius.
 The Squares (90°): Conflicts such as World War I and the Vietnam War occurred when Uranus formed a 90° square to the Gemini/Sagittarius axis. Notably, the 2003 invasion of Iraq occurred when Uranus returned to a similar heliocentric location (within approximately 1.33°) it occupied at the end of World War I—a point also approximately 166° opposite the Vietnam War era.

  
Uranus in Gemini: 2026–2033
The United States has just entered the sixth arrival of Uranus in Gemini since the Jamestown settlement, marking the third return since the nation's birth. Uranus commenced its transit through the sign of Gemini on February 10, 2026 (14:54 EST), and will conclude on March 2, 2033 (19:14 EST), attaining the critical 12° sensitive point on December 20, 2028 (20:47 EST).
 
Heliocentric Uranus Cycle and American War (1607–2033):
A Chronology of Gemini Transits.
 
As the US enters this window, it faces extreme internal polarization reminiscent of the 1860s, with citizens and elites increasingly divided and unwilling to entertain opposing views. Whether this 2026-to-2033 period manifests as permanent international war, renewed civil war, or both remains to be seen. 
Bradley Frank Cowan is a reclusive American financial theorist and professional trader who redefined market forecasting through multidimensional geometry. A former electrical engineer, Cowan achieved recognition in the 1990s for synthesizing Newtonian physics and heliocentric planetary mechanics into his proprietary Price-Time Vector (PTV™) framework. His seminal 1993 work, Four-Dimensional Stock Market Structures and Cycles, advanced the esoteric theories of W.D. Gann by mapping price action across non-linear spatial dimensions. Based in San Diego, California, Cowan operates Cycle-Trader, where he provides specialized curricula—including the Market Science series—to institutional and professional practitioners. By anchoring economic "Natural Law" to planetary periodicity, such as the 84-year Uranus return, he remains a foundational figure in high-level technical analysis, known for projecting global historical and financial turning points with mathematical precision.

Thursday, March 21, 2024

The 500 Year Cycle | Raymond H. Wheeler

The 1000 year cycle tends to break down into halves of about 500 years each. Centering on the dates of 375 BC, 30 AD, 460 AD, 955 AD, and 1475 AD, climate was dry and colder than usual. The warm periods were short and were often disrupted by drops in temperature. Midway between these dates, the warm periods stretched out; the interruptions were not as long, and the cold periods shortened. The result is an intermediate cycle averaging 510 years in length.
 
 » Mass migrations were extensive, and all the ancient civilizations collapsed. «
Vandals sacking Rome, 455 AD.

The beginning of the first of these 500-year rhythms marks an important place in the history of climate. Prior to 575 BC, climatic cycles were longer and more extreme than they have been since then. In the two centuries immediately following, from 450 ta 320 BC, it was warm much of the time. Two 100-year cycles were almost fused into one. The cold period between them, at 420 BC, was very short. After that, the cold periods lengthened. By the end of this 500-year period, at the time of Christ, there was an exceptionally long cold period.

The cold phase centering on 460 AD, at the end of the next 500-year cycle, was also exceptionally cold. Mass migrations were extensive, and all the ancient civilizations collapsed. There was a long-term downward trend in rainfall. Although there were long cold phases in the 600s and 700s, they were frequently interrupted by silts to the warm side and did not seem to be exceptionally bad. The cold phases of the 800s and 900s were extremely severe, causing many migrations, primarily from the northern countries — especially when conditions began to deteriorate approaching 955, near the end of the 500-year rhythm.
 
 » Civilizations broke up and new ones took their places. «
 Migrants storming European Union borders, 2024 AD.

Subsequently, temperatures warmed suddenly. The 1000s were so warm that trees grew in Greenland. This was the period when Vikings crossed the Atlantic, One of the most severe hot droughts in history occurred in the 1130s. The 13th century saw a long warm period. Then climate began to deteriorate again. While the 14th century was warm much of the time, there were frequent and sharp drops in temperature; often it was very stormy. During several winters, the straits between Denmark and Sweden froze over solid enough to support horses and sleds, Greenland began to freeze. In the 15th century, there was no long warm period.

The next 500-year rhythm terminated at 1475. Subsequently, temperatures warmed up again. The 17th century was so warm that the next 100-year cycle had but a short cold phase, centering on 1655, and this was quickly interrupted by a shift back to the warm side. During the 19th and 20th centuries, climate deteriorated again.

 
» The 500 year period beginning at 1475 is drawing to a close. «
 Migrants breaching US southern border, 2024 AD.

Events of great importance occur every 500 years. Midway between 575 BC and 460 AD, the Roman Empire began its decline as Christianity rose. There were no strong European civilizations for a long time. On the other hand, there were very strong Asiatic empires such as that of the Huns. Midway between 460 and 1475, in the 9th and 10th centuries, a vast change occurred, again involving mass migrations, These events divided the Middle Ages into two halves. In the first half, there were brilliant empires like those of Justinian with its capital at Constantinople, Charlemagne in the West, and the Arabs in the East. The Arabs moved into Spain and India, developing brilliant civilizations at Cordoba and Bagdad. But all this came to an end. These civilizations broke up and new ones took their places. Following 975, the feudal period developed, with the growth of principalities that were to form modern European states. Amazing empires were built by the Mongols in Asia, the Incas in South America, and the Mayas in Central America. In India and Japan, new empires were born. The Balkans achieved their Golden Ages during this period.

All this came to an end in the 15th century. The Medieval economy, customs, and modes of thought disappeared. With the new 500-year climatic cycle came the Renaissance, the Reformation, and the building of modern nations — first under absolute monarchs, then under constitutional governments. This most recent 500-year cycle has witnessed the awakening of modern art, science, and economics. In these more advanced civilizations, the common people have, for the first time in history, come into their own under democratic political and economic systems.

 » The same types of events occur with almost clock-like regularity. «

The 500 year period beginning at 1475 is drawing to a close. We are now witnessing many of the same types of events that have occurred under similar circumstances with almost clock-like regularity five times before in history. These events are of the utmost significance for the businessman and student of today — and tomorrow.
 
Quoted from:
Raymond H. Wheeler (1943) - The 500 Year Cycle. 
With a Forecast of Trends Into the 21st Century.
 
  » A 500-year cycle is now terminating, which belonged to Europe.
The next 500-year cycle will belong to Asia. «
Raymond H. Wheeler, 1951.

See also:

Tuesday, October 24, 2023

War and Regime Change Soon in the US | L. David Linsky

Most, if not all, cycles in nature and human events can be shown to have a high correlation to astronomical periodicities. Some propose they provide the "cause" and basis for the cyclical structures involved in all cycle research. As with anything, cycles cannot occur out of thin air and cannot exist without scientific foundation. Cycles must be based upon something, since by their very nature they exist and are mathematically coherent. It can be shown that when specific astronomical cycles repeat, so do the same or similar events correlated to them. Below is a proposed case of potential and significant major conflict for the United States in +/- 2026.

» If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by. «
Asian proverb.

This conflict can manifest itself as either internal, external, or a combination of the two. In most cases, wars do not simply start randomly one day. They build slowly over time, and often brew for years as we are potentially seeing now. The following will show a pattern of significant and major conflicts in American history within a framework of an 84-year cycle. Every 84 years, Mars and Uranus form an initial conjunction or come together and meet at almost the exact same celestial longitude in that part of the sky astronomically known as Gemini. This is the foundation of the 84-year war cycle proposed and examined.

[...] The planetary positions between 1692, 1776, 1861, 1941 and 2026, represent a highly correlated synchronization of the planets mentioned with similar human events occurring on Earth, the associated major war cycle affecting the United States. Based upon the cycles illustrated, the data suggests there could be a serious war and or conflict in 2026 involving the United States, whether internal, external, or both. Circumstances do not need to be 100% identical, for they can "rhyme" or be similar in nature. This similarity could manifest itself as a significant internal conflict such as another kind of Revolution or Civil War, if not another major physical conflict overseas.

Thursday, February 24, 2022

Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War | Max Tension in March 2022

 
André Barbault’s Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict, and War comprises the cumulative angular distances between all planets from Jupiter through Pluto. When the graph reaches a low point, it signifies the presence of one or more conjunctions among these five outer bodies—alignments that tend to concentrate global turbulence. Conversely, an ascending graph indicates a progression toward planetary oppositions. While these low points reflect eras of heightened international, economic, and social tension, the peaks typically forecast the opposite. Notably, the index marked its lowest point of the entire 21st century in mid-March 2022.
 

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Major Power's Military Expenditure │ 1830 - 2007

Source: OurWorldinData.

Max Roser and Mohamed Nagdy (2016) - There are two ways in which we might want to measure military spending; the first way is spending in real terms and the second is as a percentage of GDP. Military expenditure in real terms is important since the absolute level of expenditure matters for the outcome of war. The US spending 10% of its GDP fighting a war is likely to defeat a low or middle income country spending 50% or more of its GDP. Yet, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP allows us to get a handle on the priorities and ambitions of a country. The military expenditure of a country is largely determined by the whether it is at war or not. Outside of wartime, countries continue to spend substantial sums on maintaining their military capability. [Above] are two time series plots of military expenditure in real terms; the first is in thousands of 1900 UK pounds for the period 1830-1913, the second is in thousands of 2000 US dollars for the period 1914-2007. 

The UK’s military spending as a percentage of GDP in peacetime fluctuates around 2.5%, in times of war however, military spending rises dramatically. At the height of the Second World War, the UK was spending around 53% of its GDP on its military. Such a dramatic rise is consistent with the existential danger faced by the UK during the Second World War.

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Where did Steve Bannon get his Worldview? From my Book | Neil Howe

Steve Bannon - Trump’s chief strategist.

Neil Howe (Feb 24, 2017) - The headlines this month have been alarming. “Steve Bannon’s obsession with a dark theory of history should be worrisome” (Business Insider). “Steve Bannon Believes The Apocalypse Is Coming And War Is Inevitable” (Huffington Post). “Steve Bannon Wants To Start World War III” (The Nation). A common thread in these media reports is that President Trump’s chief strategist is an avid reader and that the book that most inspires his worldview is “The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy.

I wrote that book with William Strauss back in 1997. It is true that Bannon is enthralled by it. In 2010, he released a documentary, “Generation Zero”, that is structured around our theory that history in America (and by extension, most other modern societies) unfolds in a recurring cycle of four-generation long eras. While this cycle does include a time of civic and political crisis — a Fourth Turning, in our parlance — the reporting on the book has been absurdly apocalyptic.

I don’t know Bannon well. I have worked with him on several film projects, including “Generation Zero,” over the years. I’ve been impressed by his cultural savvy. His politics, while unusual, never struck me as offensive. I was surprised when he took over the leadership of Breitbart and promoted the views espoused on that site. Like many people, I first learned about the alt-right (a far-right movement with links to Breitbart and a loosely defined white-nationalist agenda) from the mainstream media. Strauss, who died in 2007, and I never told Bannon what to say or think. But we did perhaps provide him with an insight — that populism, nationalism and state-run authoritarianism would soon be on the rise, not just in America but around the world.

Because we never attempted to write a political manifesto, we were surprised by the book’s popularity among certain crusaders on both the left and the right. When “The Fourth Turning” came out, our biggest partisan fans were Democrats, who saw in our description of an emerging “Millennial Generation” (a term we coined) the sort of community-minded optimists who would pull America toward progressive ideals. Yet we’ve also had conservative fans, who were drawn to another lesson: that the new era would probably see the successful joining of left-wing economics with right-wing social values. Beyond ideology, I think there’s another reason for the rising interest in our book. We reject the deep premise of modern Western historians that social time is either linear (continuous progress or decline) or chaotic (too complex to reveal any direction). Instead we adopt the insight of nearly all traditional societies: that social time is a recurring cycle in which events become meaningful only to the extent that they are what philosopher Mircea Eliade calls “reenactments.” In cyclical space, once you strip away the extraneous accidents and technology, you are left with only a limited number of social moods, which tend to recur in a fixed order.

Along this cycle, we can identify four “turnings” that each last about 20 years — the length of a generation. Think of these as recurring seasons, starting with spring and ending with winter. In every turning, a new generation is born and each older generation ages into its next phase of life.
The cycle begins with the First Turning, a “High” which comes after a crisis era. In a High, institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, even if many feel stifled by the prevailing conformity. Many Americans alive today can recall the post-World War II American High (historian William O’Neill’s term), coinciding with the Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy presidencies. Earlier examples are the post-Civil War Victorian High of industrial growth and stable families, and the post-Constitution High of Democratic Republicanism and Era of Good Feelings.

The Second Turning is an “Awakening”, when institutions are attacked in the name of higher principles and deeper values. Just when society is hitting its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of all the social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Salvation by faith, not works, is the youth rallying cry. One such era was the Consciousness Revolution of the late 1960s and 1970s. Some historians call this America’s Fourth or Fifth Great Awakening, depending on whether they start the count in the 17th century with John Winthrop or the 18th century with Jonathan Edwards.

The Third Turning is an “Unraveling”, in many ways the opposite of the High. Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Third Turning decades such as the 1990s, the 1920s and the 1850s are notorious for their cynicism, bad manners and weak civic authority. Government typically shrinks, and speculative manias, when they occur, are delirious.

Finally, the Fourth Turning is a “Crisis” period. This is when our institutional life is reconstructed from the ground up, always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. If history does not produce such an urgent threat, Fourth Turning leaders will invariably find one — and may even fabricate one — to mobilize collective action. Civic authority revives, and people and groups begin to pitch in as participants in a larger community. As these Promethean bursts of civic effort reach their resolution, Fourth Turnings refresh and redefine our national identity. The years 1945, 1865 and 1794 all capped eras constituting new “founding moments” in American history.
Just as a Second Turning reshapes our inner world (of values, culture and religion), a Fourth Turning reshapes our outer world (of politics, economy and empire).

September 11, 2001: The sinister Neocon Project for a New American Century, engineering "some
catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor" — one generation ahead of time
(HERE).

In our paradigm, one can look ahead and suggest that a coming time period — say, a certain decade — will resemble, in its essential human dynamic, a time period in the past. In “The Fourth Turning,” we predicted that, starting around 2005, America would probably experience a “Great Devaluation” in financial markets, a catalyst that would mark America’s entry into an era whose first decade would likely parallel the 1930s. Reflecting on the decade we’ve just lived through, we can probably agree that the 1930s parallel works well. In the economy, both decades played out in the shadow of a global financial crash, and were characterized by slow and disappointing economic growth and chronic underemployment of labor and capital. Both saw tepid investment, deflation fears, growing inequality and the inability of central bankers to rekindle consumption.

In geopolitics, we’ve witnessed the rise of isolationism, nationalism and right-wing populism across the globe. Geostrategist Ian Bremmer says we now live in a “G-Zero” world, where it’s every nation for itself. This story echoes the 1930s, which witnessed the waning authority of great-power alliances and a new willingness by authoritarian regimes to act with terrifying impunity. In social trends, the two decades also show parallels: falling rates of fertility and home-ownership, the rise of multi-generational households, the spread of localism and community identification, a dramatic decline in youth violence (a fact that apparently has eluded the president), and a blending of pop youth culture. Above all, we sense a growing desire among voters around the world for leaders to assert greater authority and deliver deeds rather than process, results rather than abstractions.

September 1, 2005: FEMA-camp, New Orleans, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina (HERE).

We live in an increasingly volatile and primal era, in which history is speeding up and liberal democracy is weakening. As Vladimir Lenin wrote, “In some decades, nothing happens; in some weeks, decades happen. Get ready for the creative destruction of public institutions, something every society periodically requires to clear out what is obsolete, ossified and dysfunctional — and to tilt the playing field of wealth and power away from the old and back to the young. Forests need periodic fires; rivers need periodic floods. Societies, too. That’s the price we must pay for a new golden age. If we look at the broader rhythms of history, we have reason to be heartened, not discouraged, by these trends. Anglo-American history over the past several centuries has experienced civic crises in a fairly regular cycle, about every 80 or 90 years, or roughly the length of a long human life. This pattern reveals itself in the intervals separating the colonial Glorious Revolution, the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression and World War II. Fast-forward the length of a long human life from the 1930s, and we end up where we are today. 

America entered a new Fourth Turning in 2008. It is likely to last until around 2030. Our paradigm suggests that current trends will deepen as we move toward the halfway point. Further adverse events, possibly another financial crisis or a major armed conflict, will galvanize public opinion and mobilize leaders to take more decisive action. Rising regionalism and nationalism around the world could lead to the fragmentation of major political entities (perhaps the European Union) and the outbreak of hostilities (perhaps in the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, the Baltic states or the Persian Gulf).  

September 18, 2008: Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke met with key
legislators to propose a $700 billion emergency bailout. Bernanke reportedly told them: "If we
don't do this, we may not have an economy on Monday." (
HERE)

Despite a new tilt toward isolationism, the United States could find itself at war. I certainly do not hope for war. I simply make a sobering observation: Every total war in U.S. history has occurred during a Fourth Turning, and no Fourth Turning has yet unfolded without one. America’s objectives in such a war are likely to be defined very broadly. At the end of the 2020s, the Fourth Turning crisis era will climax and draw to a close. Settlements will be negotiated, treaties will be signed, new borders will be drawn, and perhaps (as in the late 1940s) a new durable world order will be created. Perhaps as well, by the early 2030s, we will enter a new First Turning: Young families will rejoice, fertility will rebound, economic equality will rise, a new middle class will emerge, public investment will grow into a new 21st-century infrastructure, and ordered prosperity will recommence.

"Prestige lasts at best four generations in one lineage."
Muqaddimah (1377), Ibn Khaldun.

During the next First Turning, potentially the next “American High,” millennials will move into national leadership and showcase their optimism, smarts, credentials and confidence. Sometime in the late 2030s, the first millennial will be voted into the White House, prompting talk of a new Camelot moment. Let a few more years pass, and those organization-minded millennials may face a passionate and utterly unexpected onslaught from a new crop of youth. Welcome to the next Awakening. The cycle of history keeps turning, inexorably (see also HERE).

The Global Financial Crisis catalyzed by the 2008 financial meltdown in the US was the most severe
economic downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. With public trust continuing to ebb, the
regeneracy phase of this crisis still seems years away. Most likely, this Fourth Turning will come
to an end in the late 2020s, just as the Generation Zero/Millennials will embark on careers
 
(
HERE).

Monday, February 6, 2017

The Wheel of Time: Raymond H. Wheeler's Drought Clock | Peter Temple

Dr. Raymond H. Wheeler (1892-1961) developed a clock to forecast recurring droughts, which coincided with colder climates. He found that every 170 years, the climate would turn colder and dryer, social mood would turn negative, civil wars would proliferate, and the economy would suffer from financial collapse.


Although he completed his work during the 1930s, 40s, and 50s, he was able to accurately forecast the second half of the 20th century, based upon the cycles that occurred over and over again like clockwork from 600 BC through today. The Drought Clock shows shorter 100 Year Cycles of cold and dry which are compounded by the larger degree 170 Year Cycle, when they happen at the same time. You can see that he forecast the start of a cold, dry 170 Year Cycle just before the year 2000. Cold dry periods in history have almost always led to droughts (limited access to food), civil wars, riots, and economic recessions or depressions [...] The 515 Year Climate Cycle is also a major Civilization Cycle where virtually everything around us changes (more details Here + HERE). 
 
Reference:

Thursday, November 26, 2015

NATO Opens Another Front Against Russia in Crimea

SouthFront.org (Nov 26, 2015) - [NATO, Turkey and Ukraine] have made a strike at another front. As result of a terrorism act near the border with Russia, the four main transmission lines between Ukraine and Crimea were blown up. About 1,7 million people in Crimea are cut from the power supplies. Some experts believe that the terrorism act was conducted by Turkish intelligence services in concurrence with the US. Formally, the terrorism act was made by Crimea Tatar extremists and the “Right Sector” terrorist group. The Crimea’s blackout could be described as a clear war provocation against Russia. At the moment, we could observe an escalation in a diplomatic sphere and military build up of the all sides involved in the Syrian crisis. If the US and its allies continue their provocative and shallow policy, there is a serious threat of an open military escalation in the region (see also HERE).

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Barbault's Cyclic Index and Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium | 1700 - 2050

In André Barbault's Cyclic Index better times are at the highs, bad times at the lows. In Claude Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium general mundane circumstances are considered to be better above the zero-line. Periods below the zero-line are generally less favorable and oftentimes coincide with major military conflicts. See also HERE + HERE