Showing posts with label Climate Change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Climate Change. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 19, 2022

The Heartbeat of the Sun│Valentina V. Zharkova et al.

Valentina V. Zharkova (2016) - We will see it from 2020 to 2053, when the three next cycles will be of a very reduced magnetic field of the sun. Basically, what happens is these two waves, they separate into the opposite hemispheres and they will not be interacting with each other, which means that resulting magnetic field will drop dramatically nearly to zero. And this will be a similar condition like in the Maunder Minimum.
 

What will happen to the Earth remains to be seen and predicted because nobody has developed any program or any models of terrestrial response – they are based on this period when the sun has maximum activity — when the sun has these nice fluctuations, and its magnetic field [is] very strong. But we’re approaching the stage when the magnetic field of the sun is going to be very, very small. 

 
See also:
 

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Sunspot Cycle Length vs Temperature Anomaly │ Jasper Kirkby

The sunspot cycle length as a measure of the Sun's activity:
Variation during the period 1861 - 1989 of the sunspot cycle length (solid curve)
and the temperature anomaly of the Northern Hemisphere (dashed curve).
The temperature data from the IPCC.

Jasper Kirkby (1998) - The sunspot cycle length averages 11 years but has varied from 7 to 17 years, with shorter cycle lengths corresponding to a more magnetically-active Sun. A remarkably close agreement was found between the sunspot cycle length and the change in land temperature of the Northern Hemisphere in the period between 1861 and 1989 [update HERE]. The land temperature of the Northern Hemisphere was used to avoid the lag by several years of air temperatures over the oceans, due to their large heat capacity. This figure covers the period during which greenhouse gas emissions are presumed to have caused a global warming of about 0.6°C. Two features are of particular note: firstly the dip between 1945 and 1970, which cannot be explained by the steadily rising greenhouse gas emissions but seems well-matched to a decrease in the Sun's activity, and secondly the close correspondence between the two curves over this entire period, which would seem to leave little room for an additional greenhouse gas effect.

[...] The observation that warm weather seems to coincide with high sunspot counts and cool weather with low sunspot counts was made as long ago as two hundred years by the astronomer William Herschel who noticed that the price of wheat in England was lower when there were many sunspots, and higher when there were few. See also HERE  

Data: SILSO Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Monday, March 20, 2017

Politics, Climate, and the Economy │ Peter Temple


Peter Temple (Mar 19, 2017) - Above is a chart of the US Presidents from 1913 through 2016. You can see the politicians who were liked and are considered “good leaders” by historians (green circles and check marks). The there are those we dislike (red circles and x’s) and threw out of office because “they destroyed the economy.”

Dr. Wheeler spent his entire life analyzing weather cycles back over 20 centuries to 600 BC. He found that major climate cycles changed every 25, 100, 500, and 1000 years and that they’re fractal, which means there are smaller cycles within larger cycles. During his life, he put together an archive of world events relative to changes in climate that was some 2000 pages in length, and when open, spanned a length of some 7 feet. To the left is the only shot I’ve found of him working on “The Big Book.” Here are the four twenty-five year cycles:

Spring: warm and wet
Summer, warm and dry
Fall: cool and wet
Winter: cold and dry.
The roaring ’20s (yellow) were mostly wet and warm, but in 1929 (red arrow), it got very cold – the mercury plunged. Cold and dry has always led to tough economic times. The stock market crashed. Then the next year, 1930 (green arrow points to temperature drop), was the driest year in over 150 years. It ushered in ten straight years of dry and hot (red)—about the hottest on record over the past couple of hundred years: The Great Depression. Hot and dry weather in history has led to a major war, despotism, dictators, socialism, communism, world wars, and other atrocities.

In the mid 40s (purple), it turned cool and wet … the economy picked up and the war ended. It lasted through to the ’60s—we had the Beatles, love and flowers … great times! Cool climate means energy–humans become much more active. Wet means prosperity in terms of food.

But in the late ’60s (green), we turned cold and dry … and that led to a deep recession that lasted through the late 70s. In fact there were articles in all the major newspapers predicting a mini ice age. Well, you’re likely to see those again.

But then it turned warm again in the ’80s (blue), the stock market turned up, and business started to boom! It was a warm-wet spring cycle once again—that means prosperity … and that lasted through the 90s, when it also started to get dry and cool again (after 1998).

These climate cycles happen so regularly, that in the 1940s Dr. Wheeler predicted the current change in climate with his drought clock. And sure enough, in 1998, the temperature started to cool and we’ve been getting cooler and dyer ever since. He also predicted extreme weather in the early twenty first century because we’re at the end of an even larger five hundred year cycle. Two major climate cycles are transitioning right now. That’s why we have such extreme weather (see also HERE).

Monday, February 6, 2017

The Wheel of Time: Raymond H. Wheeler's Drought Clock | Peter Temple

Dr. Raymond H. Wheeler (1892-1961) developed a clock to forecast recurring droughts, which coincided with colder climates. He found that every 170 years, the climate would turn colder and dryer, social mood would turn negative, civil wars would proliferate, and the economy would suffer from financial collapse.


Although he completed his work during the 1930s, 40s, and 50s, he was able to accurately forecast the second half of the 20th century, based upon the cycles that occurred over and over again like clockwork from 600 BC through today. The Drought Clock shows shorter 100 Year Cycles of cold and dry which are compounded by the larger degree 170 Year Cycle, when they happen at the same time. You can see that he forecast the start of a cold, dry 170 Year Cycle just before the year 2000. Cold dry periods in history have almost always led to droughts (limited access to food), civil wars, riots, and economic recessions or depressions [...] The 515 Year Climate Cycle is also a major Civilization Cycle where virtually everything around us changes (more details Here + HERE). 
 
Reference:

Monday, October 5, 2015

Uranus and Neptune Responsible For Solar Grand Minima and Solar Cycle Modulation?

Solar system dynamics have been postulated as the main solar driver for
many decades. Paul D. Jose (1965) was the first to associate a recurring
solar system pattern of the 4 outer planets (179 years). Jose suggested
this pattern correlates with the modulation of the solar cycle. New
research via this study suggests that over the past 6000 years the 179
year cycle cannot be maintained and is closer to a 172 year cycle which
aligns with the synodic period of Uranus & Neptune (171.44 years).
Geoff J. Sharp (2013) - Detailed solar Angular Momentum (AM) graphs produced from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 ephemeris display cyclic perturbations that show a very strong correlation with prior solar activity slowdowns. These same AM perturbations also occur simultaneously with known solar path changes about the Solar System Barycentre. The AM perturbations can be measured and quantified allowing analysis of past solar cycle modulations along with the 11,500 year solar proxy records (14C & 10Be). 
The detailed AM information also displays a recurring wave of modulation that aligns very closely with the observed sunspot record since 1650. The AM perturbation and modulation is a direct product of the outer gas giants (Uranus and Neptune). This information gives the opportunity to predict future grand minima along with normal solar cycle strength with some confidence. A proposed mechanical link between solar activity and planetary influence via a discrepancy found in solar/planet AM along with current AM perturbations indicate solar cycle 24 & 25 will be heavily reduced in sunspot activity resembling a similar pattern to solar cycles 5 & 6 during the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830; see also HERE).

The path of the Sun shows the two distinct loops around the
Solar System Barycentre (centre point).
Typical planet positions demonstrating strong Types A & B perturbations.
The Type A example is taken from near the centre of the Sporer Minimum
(1472). Type B events coinciding with less reduction of solar activity
compared with Type A events of similar angle (reverse).

Sunday, June 28, 2015

The 100 Year Cycle - Climate, Regime Change & War │ Raymond H. Wheeler

In the 1940s, while at the University of Kansas, Professor Raymond Holder Wheeler undertook an immense project: he summarized all of recorded history. He compiled 2,500 years of records from which he derived many brilliant hypotheses. At one point, he employed as many as 200 scientists. He concluded that climate and human history were intimately related. He discovered many related cycles but declared the 100-Year Cycle to be the most important.
 
 » The turning points between old and new civilizations
occur when cold-dry times reach their maximum severity. «
 
The climate of the Earth shifts between warmer and colder periods, often in rhythmic cycles. Throughout history, there has been a sequence of four seasons across many diverse time periods, including 1,000 years, 500 years, 100 years, 10 years, 1 year, and likely others. The Earth’s coldest periods were typically followed by excessive warmth. Such was the case when temperatures shifted from the Medieval Warm Period, between 900 and 1300 A.D., to the sudden ‘Little Ice Age,’ which peaked in the 17th century. Since 2,500 B.C., there have been at least 78 major climate changes worldwide, including two major shifts in just the past 40 years. History shows that nations are generally built during transitions from cold periods to warm, when human energy levels temporarily reach a maximum, while nations tend to crumble during shifts from warm to cold. International wars typically occur during warm periods, while civil wars tend to occur during cold ones. Each phase, whether warm or cold, begins wet and ends dry. Cold droughts and periods of civil war generally coincide. A major cold drought and civil war period occurs approximately every 510 years, with less severe ones generally occurring every 170 years (the 171-Year Neptune-Uranus Cycle). There are also shorter rhythms: The generally warmer period at the beginning of the 20th century ended during World War II. Totalitarianism is typical of late warm periods, while democracy tends to revive during cold times.

Raymond H. Wheeler (1943): The Effect of Climate on Human Behavior in History.
In: Transactions of the Kansas Academy of Science, Vol. 46.

Wheeler’s cycle averages 100 years, although it can range from as short as seventy years to as long as 120 years. The cycle is divided into four phases, which are not precisely equal in duration, but in general, the cycle includes both a warm and a cold phase, with each phase having a wet and a dry period (18.6 Lunar Nodal Cycle).

 
(1) The Cold-Dry Period (early 1870s to early 1900s and early 1960s to late 1970s): This is a time of general individualism, marked by weak governments, migrations, and other mob actions such as race riots. Class struggles and civil wars, ranging from palace intrigues to revolutions, occur during the general anarchy of the cold-dry period. People tend to be cosmopolitan, borrowing culture and living by superficial and skeptical philosophies. As this phase nears its end and transitions into the next phase, leadership emerges and societies stabilize; new governments are formed, and nationalistic spirit revives. Wars take the form of expansion and imperialism. In the transition from the cold to the warm era, human energies operate at a high level (similar to the spring of the year). Learning is revived, genius emerges, industrial revolutions take place, crops thrive, and times are prosperous.

Temperature fluctuations over the past 20,000 years show the abrupt cooling and warming events during the Younger Dryas. The late Pleistocene cold glacial climate, which built immense ice sheets, terminated suddenly about 14,500 years ago, causing glaciers to melt dramatically. About 12,800 years ago, after approximately 2,000 years of fluctuating climate, temperatures plunged suddenly and remained cool for 1,300 years. The mammoths disappeared around the same time, as did some Native American and Siberian cultures that had thrived by hunting them. About 11,500 years ago, the climate warmed suddenly again; the Younger Dryas ended, and the Holocene Interglacial Period began. Soils developed, and agriculture and permanent settlements became possible due to relatively high temperature levels over the past 10,000 years. Large parts of Northern Africa began to dry up and convert into desert during the Egyptian Warm Period, 3,300 years ago. Animals and humans moved to the Mediterranean, the Nile Valley, and the Sahel (Arabic for 'shore'), the southern edge of the Sahara Desert.
 
(2) The Warm-Wet Period (early 1900s to early 1920s and late 1970s to late 1990s): This period marks the climax of the trends initiated in the previous transition, with achievement becoming more organized and an emphasis placed on cooperation and the integration of views and efforts rather than individual accomplishment. Interest shifts toward the state rather than the individual, and governments become more rigid and centralized.

(3) The Warm-Dry Period (early 1920s to mid-1940s and late 1990s to early 2020s): As the climate shifts from a general warm-wet phase to a warm-dry phase, the rigid governments of the previous period become despotic, and police states emerge. Personal freedom declines, and behavior patterns become more introverted. In art, surrealistic, impressionistic, and nihilistic patterns develop, while in business, aggressiveness and self-confidence decline, leading to subsequent depressions and the collapse of economic systems. During the transition to the next cold period, wars reflect the culmination of the decadence of the previous period, becoming the cruelest type of struggle, with entire populations slaughtered or enslaved. However, as temperatures fall and rainfall increases, activity picks up, crops improve, and a general revival begins.

(4) The Cold-Wet Period (mid 1940s to early 1960s and mid 2020s to late 2040s): This phase sees the reemergence of individualistic philosophy, with decentralizing and reorganizing trends in government and business. It is a period of emancipation and natural behavior; art becomes straightforward and simple, and scholarship follows mechanistic lines. These trends continue to grow until they reach a climax of general anarchy during the cold-dry period that follows. In 1949, Wheeler indicated that the U.S. was passing through a cold-wet period and heading for a cold-dry period.

 Dr. Wheeler with one of his "Big Books".

Within these 20-30 year periods or ‘seasons,’ there are smaller ‘seasons’—in the same sequence—that account for variations within each larger ‘season.’ Once this 100-Year Cycle is complete, it blends into a larger cycle. We are currently witnessing the conclusion of a 500-Year Cycle and the breakdown of global 'Western' hegemony—similar to the early 16th century in Europe (491-Year Neptune-Pluto Cycle or 3 Neptune-Uranus Cycles). The early 1500s were characterized by technological innovation, population growth and migration, productive and capitalistic expansion, religious secessionism and wars, regime changes and breakdowns, as well as the emergence of new empires and global players. Today, we are clearly in another warm period that began in the mid-1970s and peaked around 2000.
 

Sunday, September 1, 2013

The Cloud Mystery | Henrik Svensmark

Looking at the Milky Way from above, we see four giant spiral arms. Our solar system is currently located within a small armlet called Orion, between the two large spiral arms, Sagittarius-Carina and Perseus. However, it doesn't stay there. It rotates at a speed of about 830,000 kilometers per hour around the galactic center, completing a full rotation every 250 million years. This rotation period is called a galactic year. This means that, on average, every 65 million years, our solar system moves through one of the major spiral arms of the Milky Way.

»
The Sun controls the Earth's cloudiness. The climate is controlled by the clouds.
The clouds are controlled by cosmic rays. And the cosmic rays are controlled by the Sun. «
 
 The Solar System's passage through the Milky Way (HERE)
 
During such a passage, the average temperature on Earth is about 5-10°C colder than outside the spiral arms, where more clouds can form, causing cooler climatic conditions. Within a spiral arm, more cosmic rays reach the Earth because there are more supernovae in the immediate vicinity of our solar system. These dying stars emit cosmic rays—subatomic particles with enormous energy rushing through the galaxy at almost the speed of light. Some of them shower down and bombard the Earth. In our atmosphere, the cosmic rays serve as nuclei for the condensation of water vapor and cloud formation. The clouds then reflect sunlight, cooling the Earth.

The Sun, of course, also plays an important role in cloud formation. When there are many sunspots, the Sun's magnetic fields emit more charged particles, called the solar wind. The solar wind counteracts and neutralizes cosmic rays, controlling how many reach the Earth. During the 20th century, the Sun's magnetic activity almost doubled. As a result, fewer cosmic rays reached the Earth, the cloud cover thinned, and the Earth's climate warmed.
 
 
 » Within a spiral arm, more cosmic rays reach the Earth. Cosmic rays serve
as nuclei for the condensation of water vapor and cloud formation. «
 
A ‘lazy’ Sun would produce less magnetic activity, less solar wind, and more cosmic rays would reach the Earth’s atmosphere, where they could build up clouds and cool the planet’s climate. The Sun controls the Earth’s cloudiness. The climate is controlled by the clouds. The clouds are controlled by cosmic rays. And the cosmic rays are controlled by the Sun.
 
The Cloud Mystery - Henrik Svensmark on Climate Change, 200
7.
 
The Great Global Warming Swindle —
Martin Durkin, 2007.

Sou
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Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen, astrophysicists, Danish National Space Institute (DTU Space), Copenhagen | Nir Shaviv, astronomer,  Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem | Jan Veizer, geologist, Department of  Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa and Institute for Geology, Mineralogy and Geophysics, Bochum Ruhr University | Jasper Kirkby (2011): The CLOUD experiment at CERN [65 m] | Lars Oxfeld Mortensen (2007): The Cloud Mystery - Henrik Svensmark on Climate Change [53 m] | Martin Durkin (2007): The Great Global Warming Swindle [76 m]