Showing posts with label Wheat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wheat. Show all posts

Monday, January 26, 2026

Silver Squeeze Blasts-Out Last Short Funds—Watch Grains | Oscar Carboni

I started in the silver pits as an 18-year-old kid back in 1982. For decades, Silver was stuck in a range between $7.50 and $21, even while other metals soared. While Gold moved from $265 to $4,000, and Copper and Palladium saw massive gains, Silver remained artificially suppressed.

» You must be careful not to "plow in" at these levels«
Silver (daily chart).

For 40 years, major funds and big banks have held Silver down by selling it short and selling calls against it to collect premiums. They did this successfully for four decades until Silver finally got noticed by the broader public. What you are witnessing today is a massive, forced short squeeze. The funds that held short positions for 40 years finally got caught and are being forced to exit.
 
Caution in the Metals Sector
While the rally is exciting, you must be careful not to "plow in" at these levels. If you missed the initial move, you missed it. At $117, the volatility is extreme. Every $1 move in Silver represents a $5,000 gain or loss on a single lot. This looks like capitulation—the final "blow-off" top where the last remaining shorts are blasted out.

Gold (daily chart).
 
 Platinum (daily chart).
 
Copper (daily chart). 
 
Looking at the broader sector, Gold continues to trend within its reliable channels, and Platinum and Palladium are also moving higher. Copper had a fantastic rally today as well, moving at $250 per point.
 
The Next Opportunity: Grains
With Indices, Currencies, and Metals already having gone to the moon, I am looking for what is left. The answer is the Grain Market. Soybeans, Wheat, Corn, and Oats haven't moved yet. As spring planting approaches and other commodities become too expensive, watch for fund managers to rotate their capital into the grain sector.

 
Silver (XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale): Long-term Cup and Handle breakouts with 10x price targets, 1800-2025.
 
See also:

Friday, September 8, 2023

The Art of Forecasting Wheat Prices Using Harmonic Cycles | L.H. Weston

Numerous attempts have been made during the past century to find a fairly reliable method for determining, long in advance, the probable price of wheat and grain in general [...] We have a wheat record that runs back, upon unimpeachable authority, for several hundred years, the one given in this booklet beginning in the year 1270 and running up to present time, with years as the unit of time, and it would indeed be strange if, with such a record, we could not pick out the useful cycles in it, providing any such cycles really do exist [...] That there are recurring cycles of movement in nearly all, if not, indeed, absolutely all natural phenomena, there is now no longer any reasonable doubt. No scholar of the day, no scientist, no investigator of these times, would for a moment argue against this well established fact.
 

[...] In the following pages I give the recorded mean price of wheat for each year in England from the year 1270 to 1909, in both a table and a diagram. Also, in a diagram, the monthly mean price of wheat at Chicago and Cincinnati from 1844 to present date. Special charts are also given to illustrate the explanations regarding the method of forecasting by means of cycles. By means of these tables and charts I show in this work how a forecast of the wheat market can be made up for over 40 years. In fact, I chart the forecast in advance over 10 years, for the benefit of readers and students. It is done just as proposed above, namely, by first proving that the harmonic cycles really do exist in the records, and then carrying them on into future years. The calendar year is used as the unit of time (or the calendar month) and therefore the forecasting, as taught, is necessarily of the long swing movement. 
 
 
 
[...] On page 27 is given the table of composite and harmonic values in the 49-year cycle. That composite is, as before stated, the result of eleven cycles added together, while the harmonic values are merely the smoothed curve of this same composite, and both are charted together on page 26. 

 
[...] This result is given in the Composite Chart of the 49-year cycle and it is the one used as the basis of all forecasting. If we examine the composite chart with some attention we will find that there are just about eight places where tops come out and likewise there are eight bottoms. Eight into 49 goes 6.125 times, so it seems very much as though the famous 7-year cycle of the ancient Jews was in reality about six and one-eighth years instead of 7. It is the eighth harmonic that gives the best results in the 49-year cycle, instead of the seventh.

Wednesday, October 19, 2022

The Heartbeat of the Sun│Valentina V. Zharkova et al.

Valentina V. Zharkova (2016) - We will see it from 2020 to 2053, when the three next cycles will be of a very reduced magnetic field of the sun. Basically, what happens is these two waves, they separate into the opposite hemispheres and they will not be interacting with each other, which means that resulting magnetic field will drop dramatically nearly to zero. And this will be a similar condition like in the Maunder Minimum.
 

What will happen to the Earth remains to be seen and predicted because nobody has developed any program or any models of terrestrial response – they are based on this period when the sun has maximum activity — when the sun has these nice fluctuations, and its magnetic field [is] very strong. But we’re approaching the stage when the magnetic field of the sun is going to be very, very small. 

 
See also:
 

Friday, April 13, 2018

Detecting the Change of Trend by Means of Critical Degrees | George Bayer

Measuring longitude on the earth is measured from a fixed meridian. Greenwich is usually taken. Longitude in this sense is the angular distance through a place, such as New York City from the fixed meridian, Greenwich. It is always measured from East to West. Astronomical books tell us that the angular distance of a point from a great circle is the angle subtended at the center of the sphere by the intercept of the secondary of the great circle through the point between it and the great circle. The angular distance of one great circle from another is the angle between two great circles. This is the same as the angle subtended at the center of the sphere by the intercept of their common secondary, lying between them. Positions of cities are determined that way.

» Whenever Mars or Jupiter arrive at these locations on the Ecliptic in longitude, there is a change in the market. At times we find several planets arriving on one and the same day at critical degrees making a change of trend a surety. These critical degrees are valued for each sign of the Zodiac. They are located at 0°, 5°, 17°30', 25°. « 
 
Their explanation of celestial longitude is as follows: The celestial longitude of a body is the arc of the ecliptic intercepted between the first point of Aries and the secondary of the ecliptic through that body. The value found is always expressed in degrees and minute and counted from the first point of Aries.

A given longitude of 85°15' means that the planet is 85°15' distant from 0° Aries. The value would be shown in our ephemeris as 25°15' Gemini, for we have the sign of Aries 30° long, the next sign of Taurus also 30° in length, absorbing together 60° of our 85°15', leaving for the sign following, Gemini, 25°15'. In the ephemeris all the work is done already; they are given.

George Bayer, 1937.

Using the Tables as shown in the ephemeris and checking any possible relation between the longitudes of the various planets to the stock market as a whole, I found critical degrees in the Ecliptic. The effect of these critical degrees upon the market as a whole is astonishing. Whenever Mars or Jupiter arrive at these locations on the Ecliptic in longitude, there is a change in the market. At times we find several planets arriving on one and the same day at critical degrees making a change of trend a surety. These critical degrees are valued for each sign of the Zodiac. They are located at 0°, 5°, 17°30', 25°. Supposing Mars passes into the sign of Virgo as will happen on September 26th, 1936. We should find changes coming into the market the moment this planet passes over the 1st degree, over the 5th, the 17 1/2th and the 25th degree. This phenomenon occurs through every sign of the Zodiac. 

The same is true with Jupiter; it also applies to other planets in a minor way. A planet such as Sun, Mercury or Venus due to their fast motion reach these degrees so often and soon that they cannot be used as indicators singly, only in connection with several hitting on one and the same day. It means a change for example, when Mercury happens to be at 5° of a sign, Venus passes 17°30' of some sign and the Sun may enter into a new sign, thus crossing 0° and this all on one single day. In case Mars or Jupiter happens to pass one of these critical degrees also on that specific day, you surely will have a change in the market. Under change, we understand a new cycle. Therefore, when the movement happened to be upward until the day the change is due, we should move downward or, when other indices allow it, we can make a gap upward. You should have ample facilities on hand to distinguish which has to happen, especially when you know that the event is due on this day. In such a case watch your method #1 if an 8 1/2 move is completed; watch the volume as we approach the time for the change; watch all the factors of the other methods and combine those indicating a downmove and separately those indicating a possible gap upward and weigh carefully. 
 
» Bear in mind, that the markets are to the laymen a common gambling ground, to a few an open book, 
consisting of rhythms of pre-destined amplitudes, not a maze of uncertainty and guess work. « 

We also must know that the various planets have various effects in the different houses and you have to search old charts what effect each planet actually did have in past cycles upon the market. This is one reason why I find the movements of the various commodities much easier and surer than those of individual stocks. I have made myself charts for practically every commodity for thirty, forty years on a daily basis, such as wheat, cotton, cottonseed oil and it is from checking back the effect of the planets that I arrive at what the effect should be now. With stocks, you only have a handful that are older than twelve or fifteen years. They have not gone through a series of major cycles as yet and therefore you have to rely on secondary factors, which, as you may well realize, are not absolutely safe. This brings me once more to the statement that you should concentrate on one or two single stocks or commodities, because if you know only one and well, you can make all the money you can use and then some. Later on I will bring another reason to warrant this statement.
 
The other tables given in the ephemeris are not required for our work, such as latitude, declination. Thorough tests on my part have revealed that they do not contain such critical points.

This method operates, of course, in harmony with the others. Many times you will be able to detect small, sharp moves that otherwise would not be understood and that would cause uneasiness.

Explaining the simplest astrological methods you now will note that we are drifting completely away from price and swing into time only. We move away from the dollar that are in the market and measure Nature’s change of mind in the feelings of the human trader.

Price changes become an "accident" while time changes are the concrete facts. These changes are caused by planetary positions in the heavens and are known and the direction of the flow of the tide can be easily arrived at. The planetary positions act only when a definite degree, a definite minute and second is reached in the Zodiac. Such events can be calculated to the second when they must happen, not when they may happen. 
 
On such a day, hour, minute and second all the cycles of our other methods will also agree and produce a bottom or a top. On that day you then must either buy or sell, as the case may be, ask no questions, expect no replies. The time of the cycle is up, the public changes its mind, its attitude towards stocks or commodities, a condition which cannot be felt physically, but figured. Is anything easier, safer? Bear in mind, that the markets are to the laymen a common gambling ground, to a few an open book, consisting of rhythms of pre-destined amplitudes, not a maze of uncertainty and guess work. Buildings, twenty stories high are filled with Statisticians, selling analyses of stocks on strength of earning and what not to the greedy, by the hundred thousand, knowing as little as the statisticians themselves; on the contrary, they recognize them as "Giants of Finance and Economics" and pay them for their "information" hundreds of dollars each per year, which, as far as the market is concerned, is not worth the paper on which it is printed.
 
» Each stock reacts (also commodities) at specific degrees and minutes
of the Zodiac to one or two planets in one or two positions. « 
 
Millions of people are successful in their own lines of business. They observe subconsciously the laws of Nature. The swings of business are not so pronounced as those of the market. The same laws, of course, remain underlying. Most businesses supply necessities of life and as long as we have people living, they must purchase such necessities. The profits in such enterprises are strictly limited by keen competition. Man, as a rule, chooses the easiest path to earn a livelihood. Comparatively few work out of this rut. These few, however, step right into enormous difficulties, especially when entering the markets. They try to operate in the market under the identical laws which they carried along from their line of business. But they find that these laws will cause them to gradually, but surely, lose their money.
 
Still, the stock market and commodity market afford the greatest possibility of making money constantly without much risk, without much effort, provided the work is done exclusively within certain laws and rules, however far fetched and unbelievable they may sound to the average business man. This is the secret of the market. The operations of the multitude are wrong and necessarily so. Who else would carry the costs, commissions, taxes, the fairy-like brokerage offices down-town? The proof is seen in the persistent and steadily dribbling losses taken by the majority of investors, speculators, traders, bankers and others. Only those who have within themselves vibrations attuned to the market responding thus automatically to tops and bottoms, or those who have been able to use Nature's laws, can measure with great exactness the dates of change. The first group will never be able to forecast movements. It simply is a "something" that causes them to buy or sell and discover later that they were "right again". Their response is spontaneous, but does not go beyond the present.
 
When making commitments in a stock, by either buying or selling it short, creates immediately thereafter a somewhat mixed feeling of hope and fear within any man. Supposing he bought a stock. He hopes the market will be favorable to the upside so that he can realize a profit; at the same time he fears that the market might not go up; in fact, he dreads a downmove. To conquer this feeling is almost impossible, at least with the millions who merely guess which way "the cat might jump". Even with all the methods explained herein, it is difficult to overcome this feeling, although it gradually will wear off.
 
At times, when an important move is in the making, which is about the only time to visit a broker's office, watch the crowd in their psychology! This is more fun than a Broadway show! See these creatures buck Nature's laws, respectively abiding to the same whichever you may call it, buying stocks or commodities right at the top of a move, happy as children who just received a "gift", while on the other hand, when Nature provides a bottom in the market, these same crowds, sell the erstwhile previous bargains for the proverbial song, far below actual values, fearing they might go lower. Nature is generous, but wicked withal. The market shows these sides in the truest fashion.
 
The law of critical degrees as given above refers to the market as a whole and, when following them in individual stocks, you are apt to take severe losses, although you may be right as to the trend of the general market.
 
Therefore, I had to do some more research to overcome this difficulty. Here is the result: Each stock reacts (also commodities) at specific degrees and minutes of the Zodiac to one or two planets in one or two positions. Taking wheat for example, we note that Venus and Mars and no other planet brings about the changes therein. These two planets, as they cross 23°20, respectively 12°16' of a sign, produce changes. The stock Philip Morris acts only on Venus and the changes occur when Venus passes 17°30' of any sign. Each stock must be searched over a period of time and the planets bringing about the changes decoded.
 
In 1935, wheat made its important tops and bottoms exclusively the moment Mars passed 12°16' of a sign. A rough sketch will show it:
 
 
At the same time, Philip Morris (MOs) acted as follows:
Venus at 17,30' Aries gave a bottom on March 12th, 1935
" " " Gemini bottom April 30th, 1935
" " " Cancer bottom May 28th, 1935
" " " Leo top June 24th, 1935
" " " Virgo top July 31st, 1935
From August 18th, 1935 until September 30th, Venus moved retrograde and its motion was very slow, accounting for the sidewise movement in that specific stock during this period.
 
You may note in this example that in the sequence of the signs, we miss the sign of Taurus. This sign does not bring about a change in this stock. You further note that we have three bottoms to begin with and two tops to end with, so that some other planet is playing into this stock that brings about the reversal not found quoted herein. You may plot the daily motion of this stock for 1935 and find that planet yourself and the degree and minute that must be used.
 
I found that Cottonseed oil responds to the motion of Mercury-Neptune, that the prices of butter simply move up and down according to the aspects of Jupiter-Venus and, aside of that, in perfect ellipses.
 
end of method #6

Source:
Detecting the Change of Trend by Means of Critical Degrees. In:
George Bayer (1937) - Time Factors in the Stock Market; Carmel, California; pp. 69-72. 

 S&P 500 Index vs George Bayer’s Critical Degrees of Mars
@ 0° @ 5° @ 17° @ 25° of each Zodiac Sign. Next date is April 17
(Tue).

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Wheat vs George Bayer Rule #14 │ July 14 or 17 Low (Fri or Mon)


VENUS MOVEMENTS IN GEOCENTRIC LONGITUDE USING A UNIT OF 1°9’13” 
This rule was found by measuring from the high of March 31, 1937 in Wheat. It is rather complicated for practical use, since exact measurements must be made with degrees, minutes and second [...] We use the single unit 1°9’13” [1.153611 degrees], also five times this unit or 6°55’18” [6.92166 degrees] or [...] 25 times the original 1°9’18” unit which value is 34°36’30” [34.60833 degrees]. All the measurements are to be used for geocentric longitude only. How I arrived at this 1°9’13” value I do not recall [...] During the period a planet moves retrograde we have to DEDUCT our increment, i.e. the values we use. When the motion of the planet is forward we have to ADD them. Be sure not to fail on this else no results can be expected. 
[George Bayer (1940): Stock and Commodity Traders´ Hand-Book of Trend Determination, p. 23 f., Carmel, California]
Update: July 18, 2017 07:02 AM: Wheat +1.78%

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Sunspot Cycle Length vs Temperature Anomaly │ Jasper Kirkby

The sunspot cycle length as a measure of the Sun's activity:
Variation during the period 1861 - 1989 of the sunspot cycle length (solid curve)
and the temperature anomaly of the Northern Hemisphere (dashed curve).
The temperature data from the IPCC.

Jasper Kirkby (1998) - The sunspot cycle length averages 11 years but has varied from 7 to 17 years, with shorter cycle lengths corresponding to a more magnetically-active Sun. A remarkably close agreement was found between the sunspot cycle length and the change in land temperature of the Northern Hemisphere in the period between 1861 and 1989 [update HERE]. The land temperature of the Northern Hemisphere was used to avoid the lag by several years of air temperatures over the oceans, due to their large heat capacity. This figure covers the period during which greenhouse gas emissions are presumed to have caused a global warming of about 0.6°C. Two features are of particular note: firstly the dip between 1945 and 1970, which cannot be explained by the steadily rising greenhouse gas emissions but seems well-matched to a decrease in the Sun's activity, and secondly the close correspondence between the two curves over this entire period, which would seem to leave little room for an additional greenhouse gas effect.

[...] The observation that warm weather seems to coincide with high sunspot counts and cool weather with low sunspot counts was made as long ago as two hundred years by the astronomer William Herschel who noticed that the price of wheat in England was lower when there were many sunspots, and higher when there were few. See also HERE  

Data: SILSO Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Sunspots and the Price of Corn and Wheat | William Stanley Jevons

William Stanley Jevons (1835–1882)
William Stanley Jevons (1835–1882) was a British economist and philosopher who foreshadowed several developments of the 20th century. He is one of the main contributors to the ‘marginal revolution’, which revolutionized economic theory and shifted classical to neoclassical economics. He was the first economist to construct index numbers, and he had a tremendous influence on the development of empirical methods and the use of statistics and econometrics in the social sciences. Jevons also analyzed business cycles, proposing that crises in the economy might not be random events, but might be based on discernible prior causes. To clarify the concept, he presented a statistical study relating business cycles with sunspots.

Daniel Kuester & Charles R. Britton (2000) - William Stanley Jevons summarized his thoughts on the effects of weather on economic activity in three chapters of his book "Investigations in Currency and Finance" (1909). An in-depth examination of these essays reveals some very interesting conclusions. In the first essay entitled “The Solar Period and the Price of Corn” (1875) he first investigates the striking similarity between the length of many historical business cycles and the length of the average length of the sunspot cycle. 
 
Jevons finds that the prices of most agricultural products vary dramatically over an eleven year cycle. He cites English agricultural price data from the years 1259-1400. The prices of wheat, barley, oats, beans, peas, and rye reach a relative minimum in the second year of the cycle, an absolute maximum in the fourth year of the cycle and an absolute minimum in the tenth year of the cycle before recovering in the final year of the cycle and the first year of the new cycle. There does appear to be a rather obvious and consistent trend in prices over these eleven year periods. Jevons discovers that the data (English wheat prices from 1595-1761) available to him in the Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations (1776) confirm similar although less marked trends in agricultural prices.

 
Jevons does not discount other significant factors that might cause the rather predictable nature of these business cycles. Technological advancements, wars, and other factors independent of agricultural and weather cycles can and do exhibit great influence over the economic well being of a nation. Also consumer confidence or a lack thereof could cause significant variations in spending and employment. However, Jevons believes that these consumer attitudes may also be related to the sunspot theory and the corresponding droughts and bumper crops which may result. “If, then the English money market is naturally fitted to swing or roll in periods of ten or eleven years, comparatively slight variations in the goodness of harvests repeated at like intervals would suffice to produce those alterations of depression, activity, excitement and collapse which undoubtedly recur in well- marked succession.” Jevons believes that if it were possible to accurately predict the sunspot cycle and the corresponding bumper crops and droughts then it would also be possible to predict impending economic crises.

In the second essay “The Periodicity of Commercial Crisis and Its Physical Explanation” (1878) with “Postscript” (1882) W.S. Jevons continues his study. In this essay he attempts to find empirical evidence to support his claim that business cycles follow predictable patterns which can be tied to the length of the sunspot cycles. Jevons claims that the relationship between weather patterns and business activity display a stronger relationship in primarily agrarian societies such as India and Africa. This claim makes this subject more meaningful in studying the relationship between weather patterns and economic activity in arid and semi- arid lands.

 
One piece of empirical evidence which W.S. Jevons believed would strengthen his sunspot business cycle theory actually has weakened this theory somewhat in retrospect. “There is more or less evidence that trade reached a maximum of activity in or about the years 1701, 1711, 1721, 1732, 1742, 1753, 1763, 1772, 1783, 1793, 1805, 1815, 1825, 1837, 1847, 1857, 1866. These years marked by the bursting of a commercial panic or not, are as nearly as I can judge, corresponding years, and the intervals, vary only form nine to twelve years. 
 
There being in all an interval of one hundred and sixty five years, broken into sixteen periods, the average length of the period is about 10.3 years.” Jevons points out that it is reasonable for the business cycles to vary somewhat in duration as it is reasonable to expect that there will be different lags between droughts and economic downturns based on inventories available and on the variations in trade patterns and ability to obtain imports quickly.

Potentially the most troubling conclusion that Jevons reached was that a sunspot cycle and the corresponding changes in agricultural yield and national productivity would follow a predictable pattern of approximately 10.3 years. Most astronomers now believe that the sunspot cycle does indeed last approximately 11.11 years which is somewhat troubling and is something that Jevons’ son attempts to address. 
 
This potential difference in sunspot duration is a primary reason this subject has not been studied as much as might be expected. However the findings of García-Mata and Shaffner provide some credence to Jevons’ theory. “Summing up, we can say that from a statistical point of view there appears to be a clear correlation between the major cycles of non-agricultural business activity in the United States and the solar cycle of 11+ years.” These authors also claim that it is reasonable that there could be some variation in the duration between sunspot cycles and that there is evidence that these cycles do correspond with business activity.

Christopher Scheiner's 1626 representation of the changes in sunspots over time (1630, recordings from 1611). Scheiner, a Jesuit astronomer, eventually published the definitive work of the 17th century on sunspots, in which he accepted Galileo’s argument that sunspots "move like ships" on the surface of the Sun. Scheiner and Galileo agreed that sunspots counted against the Aristotelian doctrine of celestial incorruptibility. Earlier Jesuits had been open on this point. Clavius argued for the corruptibility of the heavens after the nova of 1572. Scheiner here publicized the fact that the Jesuit theologian Robert Bellarmine had argued for the igneous nature of the stars and the corruptibility of the heavens even before 1572 on the basis of biblical exegesis and the tradition of the Church Fathers. Cardinal Orsini paid for the printing of this lavish work (Rosa Ursina - The Rose of Orsini, 1630).
The third essay on sunspots and the business cycle was entitled “Commercial Crisis and Sun-Spots Part I” (1878) and “Part II” (1879) completed W. S. Jevons thoughts on the relationship of weather and business activity. In this essay he continues to discuss the existence of a solar cycle of 10.45 years as being wholly consistent with his findings and being a better predictor of economic variables than the now widely used duration of 11.11 years.
 
Despite this potentially unfortunate conclusion Jevons elaborates on the potential relationship between solar and weather cycles and economic activity. He concludes that solar patterns should be studied to determine if a causal relationship does indeed exist between solar patterns and economic activity. If so, then policies should be enacted to reduce the magnitude of the contraction/recession parts of the business cycle. 
 
Jevons further elaborates on the importance of the solar cycle on consumer confidence and spending. “From that sun which is truly ‘of this great world both eye and soul’ we derive our strength and our weakness, our success and our failure, our elation in commercial mania, and our despondency and ruin in commercial collapse.” Jevons also finds more empirical evidence that corn prices in Delhi reach maximum and minimum in a similar eleven year pattern which has been exhibited in Europe. Once more this theory seems much more applicably to arid and semi-arid regions such as India.

 Sunspot illustration from Scheiner's Rosa Ursina, 1630.
 
William Stanley Jevons’ son H. Stanley Jevons continued his work on sunspots and published “Changes at the Sun’s Heat as the Cause of Fluctuations of the Activity of Trade and of Unemployment” in Contemporary Review in 1909. He reissued it in a monograph entitled The Sun’s Heat and Trade Activity (1910) in which he further examined and elaborated on the subject. H. S. Jevons believed that his father had some excellent ideas in relating the sunspot theory to the length of business cycles although he does acknowledge some of the criticisms which have been leveled at the work W.S. Jevons did. He states that the sun’s activity has some effect on economic outcomes and while it is not the only variable which should be considered when formulating economic policy it is worth considering when formulating economic policy.

H.S. Jevons acknowledges that his father was in error when he claimed that he solar cycle would only last approximately 10.45 years. He claims that W.S. Jevons attempted to oversimplify his findings and he ignored some events which created economic booms and busts which had nothing to do with arid land’s agricultural productivity. This is what led him to the false 10.45 year business cycle predictor. However he found that wheat production in the United States displayed significant variation during the nineteenth century and reached its peak approximately every 11.11 years. 
 
He found a direct relationship between solar activity and wheat production in the United States. H.S. Jevons believes that the eleven year sunspot cycle is actually a combination of three shorter sunspot cycles which were just over three years in duration. There would be a period of drought approximately every 3.5 years and a period of cold damp weather approximately every 3.5 years. This great harvest would precipitate a trade boom according to Jevons. He finds data that suggest the production of pig iron and agricultural produce in the United States were closely related and followed the sunspot cycle closely. He also states that on occasion the business cycle will only correspond with two of these shorter sunspot cycles explaining the variation in business cycles between seven and eleven years. This can explain the error that W.S. Jevons did not understand about the variation in the length of business cycles. H.S. Jevons provides several suggestions as to how this information about solar activity can be useful. He believes that if output and therefore trade can be expected to decline in the near future that there should be wage cuts to attempt to ensure full employment. 
 
This suggestion is not reasonable today but if we are going to engage in interventionary fiscal and monetary policy the potential to predict shortfalls in productivity and potentially consumer confidence can have meaningful implications for expansionary monetary policies being enacted. This is particularly useful if there are actual psychological ties between solar activity and consumer’s attitudes which sounds far fetched but may occur. Jevons also recommends less domestic reliance on crops would reduce the variation in economic prosperity. While crop production is still important in many arid and semi-arid lands, this is not as meaningful to the economy as it was when Jevons wrote.