Silver and Commodities: The Case for Long-Term Investment | Andrew Hoese

Silver's recent surge marks the early stage of a major bull market, driven by long-term structural forces rather than short-term speculation. I challenge analysts who date macro bull cycles from 2000 due to recency bias, arguing instead that the true departure from sound money began with the Federal Reserve's establishment or the post-1933 era of gold confiscation and the Great Depression. 

Silver/S&P 500 ratio (XAGUSD/SPX, monthly closes, log scale), 1909-2025.

 

The Silver/S&P 500 ratio shows a double bottom breaking higher in 2020 after decades of decline, confirming a long-term uptrend. This aligns with a medium-term squeeze and short-term breakout, creating ideal conditions for significant gains. Short-term pullbacks, though possible after the recent advance, are immaterial against these broader supports. Trading the short term without long-term alignment poses the primary risk.
 

Broader macro dynamics reinforce this outlook. A weakening US dollar is prompting rotation into precious metals (Silver, Gold, Platinum), emerging markets (e.g., Africa and Latin America ETFs), and commodities. Declining US shale oil production—the first year-over-year drop in history—signals supply constraints that could drive substantial inflation, necessitating further money printing, higher rates, and accelerated dollar depreciation in a self-reinforcing cycle favoring hard assets.

 

Silver/Gold ratio (XAGUSD/XAUUSD, monthly closes, log scale), 1931-2025. 

 

S&P 500/Silver (SPX/XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale), 1890-2025.

 

S&P 500/Gold (SPX/XAUUSD, monthly closes, log scale), 1884-2025. 

 

Silver (XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale): Long-term Cup and Handle breakouts with 10x price targets, 1800-2025.

 

Supporting evidence appears in parallel breakouts: gold miners versus the S&P 500, Silver versus Gold (a massive base signaling outperformance), and currencies like the Swiss franc against the dollar—all linked primarily to dollar weakness rather than isolated fundamentals. I advise against complexity via frequent trading, premature profit-taking, or asset class rotations. Instead, acquire undervalued assets and hold through the cycle. This commodity upswing is nascent; base metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Zinc, Lead), energy, and agriculture should join precious metals higher in 2026.

 

Successful investing requires aligning three timeframes: short-term (highly volatile and news-driven), medium-term (a few years, moderately stable), and long-term (a decade or more, frequently ignored). The greatest opportunities emerge when all are bullish. While short-term timing is notoriously difficult—explaining widespread losses among day traders—favorable long- and medium-term trends allow investors to endure temporary setbacks through patient holding of undervalued positions. 

 

On a logarithmic scale, Silver's advance remains in its infancy, poised for a sustained structural repricing distinct from prior cycles. Investors should resist selling early, as the ultimate magnitude may surpass expectations.

Reference:
Andrew Hoese (December 28, 2025) - SILVER SHATTERS $80! Why the Historic Run is Just Beginning: Think Long-Term. (video)

 

 » An epic Silver fractal is playing out. « 

  

» A case can be made for $147. Big question is from where we get a correction. « 
Peter Brandt, December 26, 2025.

 

See also: 

Rowan Hogg (December 27, 2025) - The Vedic Astrology of Silver in 2026: Silver Prices About to Enter New Reality.

Andrew Hoese (October 12, 2025) - Early Global Commodity Supercycle: Top Investment Picks. 

Alex Krainer (March 26, 2025) - Are Metals Kicking Off the Next Commodity Supercycle?

The Vedic Astrology of Silver in 2026: New Price Reality | Rowan Hogg

As of December 22, 2025, Silver traded around $69 per ounce, marking a substantial surge from approximately $30 at the start of 2025—validating earlier predictions of a breakout beginning in September 2025. Silver is forecasted to experience significant upward momentum throughout 2026, entering a "new reality" of higher valuations. Despite intermittent corrections, I anticipate Silver ending the year 2026 substantially higher, supported by ongoing industrial demand and safe-haven flows. 

 

 » To analyze Silver astrologically, we use a chart dated June 15, 1931, at 9:30 a.m. in Manhattan, New York. This marks the

first trade of Silver futures contracts in the United States on the National Metal Exchange, a precursor to the modern COMEX. 

Although Silver has been traded for centuries, this date represents the formalization of modern Silver futures trading. «

This prediction combines tropical Western astrology with Vedic sidereal techniques, using a foundational chart for Silver futures dated June 15, 1931, at 9:30 a.m. in Manhattan, New York. Key signatures include Jupiter's interactions with natal Pluto and Jupiter (wealth expansion), Uranus influencing natal Venus (technological and revolutionary boosts), and lunar/Cancer emphases (silver's traditional rulership by the Moon).

 
Monthly Key Transits and Expectations for 2026:

■ January: Upward momentum; Jupiter stations direct over natal Pluto (wealth expansion); Sun trines natal Venus.
■ February: Rise continues; Venus in eighth house aids investments; Mercury retrograde may expose manipulations.
■ March: Bullish with FOMO. Venus conjuncts North Node and Uranus, echoing prior surges.
■ April: Mainstream visibility increases. Venus transits the tenth house; potent conjunctions over natal Venus.
■ May: Multi-year potential boost. Venus over natal Moon; Uranus compresses natal Venus; Jupiter hits natal Pluto again.
■ June: Correction; Uranus squares natal Mars/Neptune (volatility, confusion); potential macro signals.
■ July: Rise amid banking stress; Sun over natal Pluto/Jupiter; possible Eastern market shift.
■ August: Slight gain despite health scare risks. Jupiter conjunct ascendant.
■ September: High volatility, possibly downward. Chiron and Ketu influences suggest overexpansion concerns.
■ October: Volatility in mining sector. Debilitated Sun and Saturn dampen speculation.
■ November: Renewed boom. Ketu with Jupiter; potential emergency monetary policies propel prices.
■ December: Volatile but overall higher close. Uranus stresses continue, yet speculative energy persists.

2026 is viewed as a transformative year for Silver, with commodities outperforming amid anticipated global challenges (e.g., political instability, financial strains).

 

Reference:

Rowan Hogg (December 22, 2025) - The Vedic Astrology of Silver in 2026: Silver Prices About to Enter New Reality. (video)

Silver (SI-Futures) Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1973-2024.

 

See also:
Rowan Hogg (December 26, 2025) - Financial Astrology 2026: 10 Predictions that will shape the Markets. (video)

S&P 500 Now Declining into 18-Month Hurst Cycle Low | Ahmed Farghaly

Major asset classes (equities, metals, cryptos) are entering the final phase of their current 18-month cycles (beige-yellow in first chart below), with synchronized troughs expected from late January into early March 2026. 

S&P 500 / US Equities: The August 2024 trough is identified as the 54-month cycle low. The brief break beneath it in April 2025 is viewed as a false Trump—“Liberation Day”—Tariff straddle and the first 40-week/9-month cycle trough within the current 18-month cycle. Since that time, price action has built a clean sequence of 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, and 20-week cycles. 

S&P 500 (daily closes); 2020 to December 2025: The Big Picture. 

 

S&P 500 (daily bars); September to December 2025: Last stage of the 18-month cycle.

The current 20-day cycle (magenta) ideally bottoms on December 7 (Sun), and the 40-day cycle (red) on December 23 (Tue).

 

The market has completed the latest 80-day trough on November 21 (Fri) and has now entered the final 80-day cycle before the 18-month (beige-yellow) low, which is due around mid to late January 2026 (second chart above). A rally out of the 80-day cycle low into December, but without a new all-time high, was expected because the broken 20-week VTL typically marks the 40-week peak (see first chart). 

 

An early December high remains likely before a meaningful decline into the 18-month trough. This forthcoming weakness is regarded as a mid-cycle correction within the still-intact 54-month cycle upswing. Strong gains are projected for Q2–Q3 2026 as the new 18-month cycle rises.

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (December 1, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update: S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, CRB Index, Interest Rates, Bitcoin. (video)

Hurst Cycles in the CNN Fear & Greed Index.

See also:

Ahmed Farghaly (December 2, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update (S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, CRB Index, Interest rates, Bitcoin). 

David Hickson (December 1, 2025) - Bullish or Bearish? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

High-Confidence Position Trading: Dow Jones Industrials

divided by Consumer Price Index, 1942 to 2025, and Forecast into 2037.

 

» A "straddle" is an analysis period that has its high above the FLD and its low below. «

(Cyclitec Cycles Course: Lesson 8, p. 8-14; Lesson 9, p. 9-11; Appendix C, Chart #47).

A "false straddle" is caused by an exogenous shock—an abrupt, unpredictable event originating outside the market's endogenous cyclic structure—that temporarily disrupts the established hierarchy of cycles, such as the March 2020 COVID-19 pandemic crash or the April 2025 announcement of Trump's global "Liberation Day” tariffs crash.

Long-Term Commodity Cycles: Unraveling the Big Picture | Ahmed Farghaly

Cycle analysis, based on J.M. Hurst's framework, streamlines financial market navigation. Synchronized cycles—from long-term Methuselah, Enoch, Hegemony, and Kondratieff waves to short-term fluctuations—reveal historical patterns shaping current and future commodity market trends.

 

Methuselah Wave = 972-Year Cycle = three 324-Year Enoch Waves

Enoch Wave = two 162-Year Hegemony Waves 

Hegemony Wave = three 54-Year Kondratieff Waves

Kondratieff Wave = three 18-Year Kuznets Waves

Kuznets Wave = two 9-Year Juglar Waves 

Juglar Wave = two 54-Month Kitchin Cycles 

Kitchin Cycle = three 18-Month Cycles = six 40-Week Cycles

 

Long-Term Cycle Foundations

In July 1949, the 972-year Methuselah Wave, the 324-year Enoch Wave (starting 1673), the 162-year Hegemony Wave, the 54-year Kondratieff Wave, and all shorter cycles converged at their lows (see list above). The current Enoch Wave is projected to trough again around 2263, the Hegemony Wave around 2107, and the Kondratieff Wave, which last bottomed in March 2003, around 2055. These synchronized cycles frame long-term commodity and market trends, with the Enoch and Kondratieff waves signaling sustained commodity appreciation through 2100 and 2032, respectively, while the Hegemony Wave suggests a future correction.

Commodity Price Index (yearly bars) from 1250 to 2025:

 324-Year Enoch Waves, 162-Year Hegemony Waves, 54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves.

Kuznets Cycle and Historical Parallels

The current Kuznets cycle, an 18-year wave, began with a trough between March and June 2020, mirroring the 1720 cycle that drove a 61-year commodity rise peaking in 1781. Now 5.33 years into this phase, the cycle aligns with late 2008, following the 2003 post-SARS trough. Since 2020, sharp advances in equities and commodities, alongside rising inflation, reflect historical post-trough patterns. Extended cycles indicate the current commodity uptrend may peak near 2100, with sustained inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions persisting, punctuated by seasonal corrections within the Hegemony and Kondratieff waves.

 

Commodity Price Index (quarterly bars) from 1750 to 2025: 

 972-Year Methuselah Wave, 162-Year Hegemony Waves, 54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves.

Kondratieff Seasons and Projections

The last Kondratieff Summer peak occurred in 1980, seven years after the 1973 energy price shock, with the current summer peak projected around 2032, coinciding with the Kuznets peak in the second cycle of the 9-year Juglar wave. A 5–6-year correction is anticipated into around 2037, followed by a commodity recovery marking the Kondratieff Fall Season, characterized by disinflation and equity bubbles. Winter deflation is expected to follow, driving declines in commodities and equities.

 

Commodity Price Index (monthly bars) from 1900 to 2025: 

54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves.

 

Short-Term Cycle Dynamics

Within the Kuznets cycle, commodities and equities align with nested 9-year Juglar and 54-month Kitchin cycles. The current Kitchin cycle post-2024 is expected to drive a 26-month commodity rally, peaking around 2028 in its third 18-month subcycle, mirroring 2008–2011 patterns. Six 18-month subcycles and twelve 40-week cycles provide granular short-term projections. The commodity index is projected to rise through Q1 2026 and into 2028 before the first Juglar-wave correction.

Commodity Price Index (weekly bars) from 1995 to 2025:

 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves, 54-Month Kitchin Cycles, 18-Month Cycles, 40-Week Cycles.

 

S&P 500 (quarterly bars) from 1800 to 2025: 
162-Year Hegemony Waves, 54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves.

 

» The principle of confirmation [20-week VTL] on display. «

 Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 (daily bars) from July 2024 to October 2025. 

18-Month Cycles, 40-Week Cycles, 20-Week Cycles, 80-Day Cycles, 40-Day Cycles, 20-Day Cycles.

 

» Assuming the S&P 500 is in the first bullish half of the third and last 18-month cycle within the current 54-month cycle (which allegedly began in October 2022), and there is no uplifting and dominant influence of the 9-year, 18-year, or 54-year cycles, the upcoming 40-week cycle peak, anticipated around late September to early October, would be a long-term market top. «  

 

Implications and Geopolitical Context

All cycles except the Hegemony Wave signal continued commodity price rises, with the Kuznets cycle supporting a 26-month rally, the Kondratieff wave projecting growth through 2032, and the Enoch wave indicating strength toward 2100. Current trends diverge from historical analogues, suggesting higher peaks. Inflation is expected to persist through 2032, with a commodity correction into 2037. The final Kuznets swing within the Hegemony Wave may trigger significant disruption, potentially signaling the decline of an old world order and the rise of a new one. Rising commodity prices continue to reflect heightened geopolitical tensions.

 

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (October 17, 2025) - Long-Term Commodity Cycles: Unraveling the Big Picture.

 

 WWII's effect on commodity prices counteracted the expected post-1919 bear market, 

resulting in a higher-than-expected 1949 low which J.M. Hurst termed a "straddled trough."

» Inflation will persist until century's end due to a long-term cycle. «

 

See also: 

Ahmed Farghaly (October 6, 2025) - High Inflation: We are in Kondratieff's "Summer of Summer". 

Ahmed Farghaly (2016) - The 162-Year Cycle in Stocks and Commodities Since 1509.

Ron William (2022) - Is the Big Cycle Turning? 

Nikolai Kondratieff (1926) - Gold Production Mirrors the Long Wave, It Doesn’t Drive It.