The Name of God & The Rule of Nine | Martin A. Armstrong

Martin A. Armstrong (2008) - Just about everyone knows the "666" omen, but strikingly, most do not know the number of the name the Jews gave to God - "Jehovah." If we use the old Hebrew system we can find the number of God. Yod = 10, He = 5, and Van = 6. Therefore, the name of God in Hebrew He Van He Yod equals 5 + 6 + 5 + 10 = 26. The number of the name assigned to God by the Jews is 26.

 

 

I explained that I discovered the 8.6 year cycle by adding up the total number of financial panics between 1683 and 1907, which created a time-space of 224 years. I found that there were 26 financial panics and then divided that into the 224 years to obtain an average. That produced the 8.6 year frequency. Only when it began to project to specific days, then I decided to study much deeper. There is, the fact that it appeared to be intricately complex running concurrent with countless other cyclical behavior be it natural or man himself in a sort of time-space tube created by an interdependent, self-referral field network whereby, the output of each and every iteration becomes the input for the next generation perpetuating patterns of order in such a dynamic structure, that one cannot see the order of the whole for the mask of superficial chaos. There simply is yet a separate and distinct core frequency of 26 running through the center of the field causing not merely Phase-Transitions, but also Phase-Shifts and Phase-Cancellations when two cycles indeed collide of equal yet opposite forces.

1929 - 1955 - 1981 - 2007

The above sequence of dates provides a simple demonstration of the interesting relationship of 26 to the Economic Confidence Model. The high on the last Private 51.6 year Wave was 1929.75. If we simply take the annual count of 26, we produce the above time series, The great expansion of U.S. debt began from the 1955 post-war target where spending without regard to maintaining the ratio to gold may safely be defined as the start of the perpetual. spending. The next target 1981, was the high of the Public Wave of 51.6 years marked by the peak in interest rates and the open battle against inflation. This brings us to 2007, where the model has correctly given the high 2007.15 that targeted to the day, the start of this economic decline.

Previously, we looked at two time series, one beginning from 1775 marking the start of the American Revolution, contrasted with 1788 that marked the beginning of the federal government with the Constitution. The differential between these two series is half the 26 cycle - 13 years. It is twice 26 that produces the number 52 that we will see is central to the Maya, but was also the observation of the commodity cycle noted by Kondratieff - the Russian economist. We can see that the timing interval of 26 is a critical and interesting number to say the least.

 

Another kabala number of mystery has been attributed to the famous Gaon from Vilna who discovered that the Hebrew
word for truth (taf-mem-aleph) produces the number taf = 400, mem = 40, and aleph = 1 added together 441 = 9.
It was argued that God created the world based upon truth, which is the number 9. If you take any number greater
than 9, add the individual numbers, and subtract the original, we end up with a number divisible by 9.

 

Whether 26 is the "God Cycle" is interesting. Hipparchus of Rhodes observed around 150 BC that the equinoxes moved with time. This is where the Sun's path crosses the celestial equator. He realized that these were not fixed in time and space but traveled in a cyclical manner. The movement was extremely slow in a westerly direction. This amounted to but less than 2° in about 150 years. This slow movement is known as the "Precession of the Equinoxes" and requires generations to even observe. It is less than 2° movement every 150 years, bringing this also to a virtual number of close to 26,000 years to complete one cycle.

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armstrong (2008) - It's just Time

 

See also:
Martin A. Armstrong (1979) - The Fractal Design of Time
Martin A. Armstrong (2008) - The 8.6 Year Global Business Cycle 2002 - 2028

Martin A. Armstrong (2022) - ArmstrongEconomics - researching the past to predict the future

 

DJIA vs 18 Year Cycle | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 16, 2016) - The peak of the 18 year cycle should be
expected sometimes in late January early February 2017 (see also HERE)

The Pattern of US Bankruptcies | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 22, 2016) - I found an interesting pattern in the Gold Miner's index. I realized that at the beginning of the previous two Kondratieff waves the US had defaulted on their obligations. This is the reason why a human brain is superior to spectral analysis, we tend to spot patterns earlier. In 1933 the US Treasury was official declared bankrupt after the emergency banking act was voted into law by congress. "The Emergency Banking Act succeeded in abrogating America’s gold standard and hypothecated all property found within the United States to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank." This bankruptcy occurred after world war one as visible on the picture above. The Vietnam war was the culprit of the second American bankruptcy with the closing of the Gold window in 1971 by president Nixon. So much money was printed to fund the war that there was no way the US could redeem holders of US dollar with Gold at the pegged rate of $35 an ounce. We once again have the same pattern recurring at the time of writing. We had the Iraq/Afghanistan war the debt of which has become to big of a burden to service and history will once again repeat with yet another bankruptcy in a few short years. This will obviously have a devastating impact on the entire world since US Treasuries are the largest single asset that people own world wide. I wonder how China will react to such a bankruptcy but I guess only time will tell. I am so certain that this is going to occur not only because of the pattern that we see on the Gold Miner's index but that of Donald Trump's upcoming presidency. 

I analyzed all the similar cyclical circumstances and under all of them the president of the United States was a republican. Those cyclical circumstances include 1861, 1881, 1971 and 2001. This gives us reason to believe that without question the next president of the United States will be Donald J. Trump. We can also look at Hillary Clinton's history to discern if she is likely to make it to the White House. First, We know that the similar cyclical circumstance in terms of the 54 month wave saw Hillary Clinton lose in the primaries against Obama. We also know that she lost against Obama once again in the similar cyclical position in terms of the 9 year cycle. We also know that she left the White House in the similar cyclical circumstance in terms of the 18 year cycle. Now that we are certain that Donald J Trump will win the election we can combine that with what we have discerned from the Gold Miner's index with his history of Bankruptcies. Donald Trump filed for bankruptcy a total of 6 times the last of which was in 2009. W.D. Gann said that the highest correlations occur with the most recent similar cyclical circumstance. The 2009 low is expected to reoccur in 2017 and hence we can expect a bankrupt United States government before the end of next year or the year after at the latest.

Trump's plan for his first 100 days in office (HERE)

Dubai Financial Market Index: 70% Decline Expected | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 01, 2016) - As visible the immediate projection for the Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) is a similar catastrophe as 2008! This would mean that the money to be spent on the new projects and on the infrastructure for the Expo 2020 is certainly not enough to keep the economy going. Our conservative projection is a 70% decline from current levels despite all the money being spent. The world expo in Dubai will occur at a time when the global economy will be at distress and hence revenues will likely not make up for the costs of hosting the event and will most likely lead to another Dubai debt crisis. 

 

In April 2006 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast presented the above close-up of two "Skyscraper" tip-offs [Malaysia's Petronas Towers and Taiwan's Taipei 101] and wrote: "Everything points to a similar fate in Dubai", and that Burj Dubai would "open its doors in the aftermath of the bull market that gave rise to its creation".

Crude Oil and the 34 Year Commodity Cycle | Tony Caldaro

Tony Caldaro (Aug 23, 2016) - Over the years we have written many times about the 34-year commodity cycle. Generally commodities rise as a group in a 13-year bull market, which is followed by a 21-year bear market. Each specific commodity has its own particular cycle which generally fits within the broader 34-year commodity cycle.

A bullish phase of this cycle started about two decades ago in 1998, and ended in 2011. A bear market, lasting about 21-years, has been underway since then. Sorry gold bugs! During the bull market phase some commodities rise in five waves. During the bear market phase all commodities decline in three larger waves. Naturally, just like there are corrections in bull markets, there are rallies in bear markets. Commodities, in general, are currently in one of those bear market rallies.

When one looks at a Crude chart covering nearly 50-years, one can clearly see two periods of rising prices and two periods of declining to sideways prices. While these rising and declining periods may look sporadic, they are actually quite regular when one knows what to look for. As we will explain in the following chart. 

Tony Caldaro: "Expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade."

The two rising periods were actually five wave 10-year bull markets, i.e. 1970-1980 and 1998-2008. These two bull markets were separated by an 18-year bear market, i.e. 1980-1998. The rise during the bull markets were quite spectacular. Well over 1000% in such a short period of time. Price rises like these always lead to excess-capacity events. And these events are normally followed by nearly as spectacular declines. Which eventually cuts capacity until supply/demand reaches an equilibrium. We are in one of those equilibrium periods now.

With Crude 8-years into its bear market, and at least a decade away from starting a new bull market, we can already see a pattern unfolding which is relative to its previous bear market. To see this pattern one needs to review the larger waves first. During the last bear market Crude declined from 1980-1986, rallied to 1990, then declined from 1990-1998. A 6-year decline, then a 4-year rally, followed by an 8-year decline.

Since the current bear market just had an 8-year decline, 2008-2016, we should look into the last 8-year decline. Then the 8-year decline unfolded in three waves [1990]: 1994-1997-1998. Now the 8-year decline has also unfolded in three waves [2008]: 2009-2011-2016. Notice 1990: 4dn-3up-1dn, and 2008: 1dn-2up-5dn, nearly the exact reverse or mirror image. If we consider this a completed pattern, and we do, the next thing that should occur is a choppy 4-year bear market rally, i.e. 1986-1990 or 2016-2020. Therefore the $26 low should be the low for at least the next four years.

How far could Crude advance? During the last bear market all rallies, excluding the aberration from the Kuwait invasion, retraced 38.2%, 50.0%, or more of the previous larger decline. This suggests an upside target between $70 and $85 by the year 2020. Then, after that, a six-year decline into the final bear market low, which should be around the $26 area. In summary one should expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade. Unless there is a supply-event, which could push the upper range higher.

See also Paweł Wiśniewski on Long-Term Commodity Cycles HERE

New Insights in Commodities | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Jul 1, 2016) - The first chart is a synthetic chart of commodities. The way it was constructed was by isolating the second 18 year cycle of three 54 year cycle. The reason why I extracted the second 18 year cycle is because this is the cycle we are in right now in terms of commodities hence it should be correlated more with its counterpart in past 54 year cycles. I have also altered the length of the cycles to match the current average length of the 18 year cycle which is approximately 14.4 years. I then combined those cycles together in order to get a continuous series so I can isolate the cycle via spectral analysis and run neural network models on this particular position of the Kondratieff wave. The indicator that you see above is a neural network model with an 14.4 year cycle used as an input and the detrended zigzag as the output. This indicator's turning point should mimic those in the future provided that no significant changes occur to the length of the nominal 18 year wave. The second chart depicts the dates more clearly.

It is worth mentioning that the 14.4 year cycle with 4 harmonics was used as the input rather than just one harmonic, the reason for this was to aid us in depicted the peaks and troughs of the cycles smaller than the 14.4 year wave. As is visible on the chart above, we seem to have a clear path in the CRB index until late 2017. The projection also suggests that 2018 is likely to be a bad year for commodities. This correction should then be followed by a move into 4th quarter of 2020 followed by a correction to 2022 and so on (third chart).

In the neural network model below the price chart is an up percentage move indicator (fourth chart). It is calculated by having the cycle as an input and measuring the position of moves of over 7% a month and projecting something similar for the future of the current cycle. The likelihood of large percentage months on a closing basis is greatest from here going into mid 2019. Hence capital is best allocated in the commodity market now rather than chase the move after most of the large percentage gains have already been realized (fourth chart).

This indicator (fourth chart) is a forecast of the volatility index indicator using the same input as the charts above. It seems evident that the likelihood of high volatility is greatest from now going into 2020. This would mean that the purchase of call options are likely to be a better play than their sale in the upcoming environment. Trading in expectation of low volatility will probabalisticly lead to a loss going into 2020.

The 162 Year Cycle | Stocks and Commodities since 1555

Stock Prices 1509 to date | Video | Enlarge Chart

Ahmed Farghaly (May 18, 2016): "[...] The chart starts at the millennial low in 1555 and what followed is an absolute beauty. The way I first discovered the 162 year cycle was through drawing a trendline between two consecutive lows of the 54 year cycle. The lows I chose were that of 1842 and 1896. A break of such a trendline would suggest that a larger cycle has turned and indeed the trendline was broken in the 1929-1932 crash. This gave me a hint of the presence of a 162 year cycle. I assumed it was a 162 year cycle since the first 54 year cycle chosen to draw the trendline was a rally off of a bear market that lasted 64 years hence It was the ideal starting point. I then confirmed my hypothesis by looking at wheat prices and eventually commodity prices which made me conclude that the 162 year cycle's presence is no longer a hypothesis, it is a fact. The combined chart that [at left] is further evidence to its presence. Notice how nicely the first 324 year cycle subdivided into two 162 year cycles. The 162 year cycle trough was precisely in the middle of this 324 year cycle. If you look deeper into the picture you will notice that both 162 year cycles subdivided into three 54 year cycles supporting our conclusion that the Kondratieff wave is the third harmonic of the 162 year cycle. After the trough in 1784, we had three 54 year cycles that ended with the crash of the late 1920s which marked a trough of the 162 year cycle. What followed was the greatest bull market in modern history and it is unfortunate that we are close to its terminus. The peak of the last 324 year cycle occurred in the third 18 year cycle of the second 54 year cycle of the second 162 year cycle which is a position that we are in today. The likelihood of further translation than the previous 324 year cycle is slim considering that the force of the 972 year cycle has leveled out since the 1930s. 

The Elliott Wave structure is certainly interesting as well, what jumps out of the chart is the fact that we had a fifth wave extension in terms of the entire advance since 1784. What is even more interesting is the fact that the move from 1932 also sported a fifth wave extension. There is a very strong guideline in the wave principle that states that fifth wave extensions are typically followed by crashes. If one wants to search for examples commodities are a great place to start. The reason why commodities have dramatic crashes is because they follow a fifth wave extension. The guideline suggests that we can expect the decline to make it to the wave two of the fifth wave extension which would be below 1,000 on the DJIA. The fact that the 324 year cycle correction is due at this current point in time certainly supports this conclusion. Here is an example of a crash following a fifth wave extension [...]" More HERE + HERE