Showing posts with label Time. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Time. Show all posts

Friday, October 24, 2025

J.M. Hurst’s "Principle of Commonality": One Divine Force | Ahmed Farghaly

The "Cyclic Principles" introduced by J.M. Hurst in the 1970s are universal, persisting since the dawn of time. Among these, the "Principle of Commonality" stands out, as it demonstrates that the cycles of disparate financial instruments—and, by extension, human activity—are synchronized by a singular, overarching divine force. Troughs of unrelated instruments occur almost simultaneously, while divergences in peaks or amplitudes stem from local or company-specific factors rather than the underlying rhythm.

» The Principle of Commonality assures us that identical specific and forecastable wave processes occur in all negotiable equities of all types on all markets of the world. So all-pervasive is this Principle that it is only the Principle of Variation that prevents the shape of price histories of all equities from being nearly identical. And, as we have seen, it is the interaction of fundamental events and situations with cyclicality, causing wave amplitude change, that is responsible for the Principle of Variation. «
» The Principle of Commonality assures us that identical specific and forecastable wave processes occur in all negotiable equities of all types on all markets of the world. So all-pervasive is this Principle that it is only the Principle of Variation that prevents the shape of price histories of all equities from being nearly identical. And, as we have seen, it is the interaction of fundamental events and situations with cyclicality, causing wave amplitude change, that is responsible for the Principle of Variation. 
» A Commonality Phasing Model is, in effect, a large measuring strip used to preserve wave phase and period information from the analysis of two or more equities. Only the most certain of the wave trough locations are used from any given analysis. As results are added from analysis of more and more equities, gaps are filled in and a commonality distribution range is established for each wave trough position in time. A commonality phasing model can be maintained continuously, thus recording the most definitive evidence of wave phase and period from all analyses conducted. «     The Principle of Commonality, J.M. Hurst, 1973.
» A Commonality Phasing Model is, in effect, a large measuring strip used to preserve wave phase and period information from the analysis of two or more equities. Only the most certain of the wave trough locations are used from any given analysis. As results are added from analysis of more and more equities, gaps are filled in and a commonality distribution range is established for each wave trough position in time. A commonality phasing model can be maintained continuously, thus recording the most definitive evidence of wave phase and period from all analyses conducted. «
The Principle of Commonality, J.M. Hurst, 1973. 
Hurst emphasized its practical value: understanding one cycle illuminates others, with minor deviations—his third type of the Principle of Variation [each market’s active cycles deviate from the nominal model’s average periods, and these deviations differ across instruments and times]—leaving global synchronization intact as dictated by the Principle of Commonality. Empirical studies across unrelated assets, commodities, equities, and economic time series confirm that the Principle of Commonality governs beyond any single economy, reflecting a universal rhythm and mirroring humanity’s progression from polytheism toward recognition of a monotheistic, single guiding influence.
 
And your God is one God. There is no deity except Him, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.
The Holy Qur’an, Surah Al-Baqarah (The Cow), 2:163.
  
The persistence of cyclical waves through recorded history suggests that Commonality is trans-historical. Data since around 1000 AD reveal continuous alignment, and extrapolation indicates these forces existed long before formal record-keeping. Historical observation supports this: human advancement in the Stone and Bronze Ages unfolded in temporal synchrony across disconnected populations, indicating the operation of the consistent underlying divine force.
 
For every nation is an appointed term; when their term is reached,
neither can they delay it nor can they advance it an hour or a moment. 
The Holy Qur’an, Surah Al-A‘rāf (The Heights), 7:34. 
 
While troughs—the beginnings and endings of cycles—are closely aligned across nations, local expression varies. Peaks may occur at different times, amplitudes differ, and local fundamentals shape trajectories. The Principle of Commonality thus governs temporal alignment of critical points while allowing variation in the wave’s characteristics.
 
Chart 1: Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul; magenta) versus Dow Jones (DJIA) from 2000 to 2025.
Chart 1: Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul; magenta) versus Dow Jones (DJIA) from 2000 to 2025.

Empirical evidence validates these assertions. The Kuznets Swing (an 18-year cycle) peaked in 2006 in Saudi Arabia and in 2019 in the United States, yet both began in March 2003 and bottomed in the global low of March 2020. Minor discrepancies among sub-waves reflect local variation but do not disrupt the synchronization of primary troughs (see chart 1 above).
 
Chart 2: S&P 500 (red) versus Commodity Price Index from 1789 to 2025.
 Chart 2.1: Commodity Price Index and S&P 500, both from 1800 to 2025.
 
Chart 2: S&P 500 (red) versus Commodity Price Index from 1789 to 2025.
Chart 2.2: S&P 500 (red) versus Commodity Price Index from 1800 to 2025.

Longer-term studies, including continuous commodity prices and the S&P 500 since 1800, show that over 90 percent of cyclical troughs align temporally across instruments (see charts 2.1 and 2.2 above). 

Chart 3: Soybeans (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 2000 to 2025.
Chart 3: Soybeans (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 2011 to 2025.

Chart 4: German Dax (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 1980 to 2025.
Chart 4: German Dax (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 1994 to 2003.

Even unrelated markets, such as soybean prices and the Saudi stock index (Tadawul), demonstrate strong temporal correspondence (chart 3 above). Comparisons of the German DAX and Saudi index (chart 4 above) reveal synchronization across multiple cyclic levels—the 18-month, 54-month (Kitchin), and 9-year (Juglar) waves—further confirming a unifying global force.
 
“And all the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing: and He doeth according to His will in the army of heaven, and among the inhabitants of the earth: and none can stay His hand, or say unto Him, What doest Thou?” The Holy Bible, Daniel 4:35 (KJV).
 Prophet Daniel (Daniyal) in the Lions' Den (Daniel 6:16–23, KJV).
And all the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing: and He doeth according to His will
in the army of heaven, and among the inhabitants of the earth: and none can stay His hand,
or say unto Him, What doest Thou? The Holy BibleDaniel 4:35 (KJV). 
 
Hurst’s Principle of Commonality thus affirms a single, synchronized force governing the timing of major and minor cycles, while local factors shape amplitude and peak positions. This robust alignment, persistent across centuries and diverse instruments, confirms that cyclical patterns are not random but manifestations of an underlying order.

“Is He not best who begins creation and then repeats it, and who provides for you from the heaven and the earth? Is there a deity with Allah? Say, ‘Produce your proof, if you should be truthful.’”  The Holy Qur’an, Surah An-Naml (The Ants), 27:64.
Is He not best who begins creation and then repeats it, and who provides for you from the heaven
and the earth? Is there a deity with Allah? Say, ‘Produce your proof, if you should be truthful.’ 
The Holy Qur’an, Surah An-Naml (The Ants), 27:64.
 
Today, we can confidently state that in this article we have presented our proof of a mysterious, dominant, and single force behind almost all fluctuations in human affairs. We can only ask God to grant us wisdom to recognize His design and join us with the righteous after we fulfill our appointed term in harmony with His will.
 

Monday, September 1, 2025

The Mystery of the Maya Calendar | Martin Armstrong

Of all the calendars devised by man, there is truly nothing like the Maya investigation. They seem to be an ancient people who understood time. How, I am not sure. But their calculations are astonishing, and are not based upon the planets, but upon the cyclical forces of nature that they perceived. They certainly thought dynamically, rather than linearly, suggesting a more Asian foundation compared to European.

The Bearer of the Burden of Time: The Haab' calendar consists of 18 uinals (20-day periods) followed by
a 5-day period called wayeb, deemed unlucky as it disrupts the cycle, totaling 365.2422 solar days. 

The number 26 also shows up in the Maya calendar, which is quite remarkable. The calendar consists of a ritual cycle of 260 named days, and a 365-day year. Both are running in a complex, concurrent relationship. These components combine, creating a cycle of 18,980 days, constituting 52 years of 365 days, known as the "Calendar Round," where, at the end, a specific day designated in the 260-day cycle returns to the start, insofar as it recurs in the same position in the year. The 260-day cycle is formed by the combination of numerals 1 through 13, which mesh with a rotating wheel of 20 names in an ordered sequence. If we take 260 days and divide by 5, we end back at 52.

 
 
The Maya calendar is complex, shows dynamic thinking, and is far more intriguing from a mathematical perspective. The 365-year cycle was divided by 18 named months of 20 named days, with 5 days of mystic evil omen. The Maya named years based upon the first name of the day that appeared. However, the 365 days could be divided by 5, yielding 73 days (close to the 72-intensity cycle), and the number of named days being 20 was also divisible by 5, resulting in only 4 names combined with 13 numbers that could ever begin a year. These seem to be called "Year Bearers," and were assigned according to the 4 quarters of the world, and were given 4 specific colors. This becomes akin to the saying involving the 4 corners of the world and the 4 winds.

Measuring time since the day of the creation of the universe,
4 Ahau 8 Cumku (August 11, 3114 BCE), is known as the Maya Long Count.
 
The manner in which the Maya recorded dates shows a highly tuned style of dynamic thinking rather than linear. To specify a date in the "Calendar Round," they used the designated day by its numeral and name distinction, and added the current month by prefixing the number of days that had passed with the corresponding number for that month, using 0–19 rather than 1–20. A date written in this curious manner would occur only once in every Calendar Round, resulting in intervals of 52 years.

Yet the Maya were still concerned about reflecting time in a much longer space dimension. They showed a dynamic thinking process for time, and a keen sense of history that they needed to be able to reflect. The Maya devised the "Long Count," which was based upon a system of a count of 20; they strangely used 18 as the multiplier (18 × 4 = 72). Therefore, the dates were written as: kin (day); uinal (20 days); tun (18 uinals or 360 days); katun (20 tuns or 7,200 days); baktun (20 katuns or 144,000 days). Why the Maya used 18 as the multiplier is unknown. Perhaps they noticed the volatility of history, perhaps instigated by nature. 
 
Temple of Kukulkán, the feathered serpent, at Chichén Itzá, Mexico.

The "Long Count" was a means of anchoring time in a continuous time-space dimension, which they could see unfold as such: 1 kin = 1 day, 20 kin = 1 uinal, 18 uinals = 1 tun, 20 tuns = 1 katun, 20 katuns = 1 baktun. The Long Count was not just a calendar alone; the Maya conceived time as a dimension through which history is formed, but also as a cyclical event of self-organizing structure. The basic elements of the Mayan calendar have little to do with astronomy. The Maya seem to have placed great significance on cycles. There is the curious 819-day cycle (13 × 9 × 7 = 819), which also shockingly produces 2.24 years! The hidden order exists—it is not chaos!
 
 
 
The interesting aspect of the Maya calendar is its concurrent and dynamic structure of time, which is closer to what I have described from independent observations, having nothing to do with planetary movements. The use of both the 72 and 26 units of time is striking. The Aztec calendar followed the Maya in many respects, but incorporated a 584-day cycle from the planet Venus, and two 52-year cycles were considered "One Old Age," when the day cycle, the year, and the period of Venus all came together. These were also noted by the Maya, but were more important to the Aztec. All Meso-Americans believed in the cyclical destruction and re-creation of the world in these great sweeping periods of time.

The core of the Maya calendar is that the world is destroyed and reborn time and time again. While they saw the end of this world on December 21st, 2012, that would erupt from earthquakes, that is a separate issue. Lacking the data of the previous cycle from which the Maya started their calendar, there is no way to project forward to even test the theory. Like most religion, this falls into the area of faith, not math.

Calendars based upon the moon cycle of 19 years, known as the Metonic Cycle (named after Meton of Athens in 432 BC), or the solar cycle of 365.25 days, or the 28-year cycle when the same day repeats with the same number under the Julian Calendar, have created interesting math calculations. The Julian calendar cycle = 7,980 years, produced by 19 × 28 × 15. The last 15-year cycle is the Roman tax and census cycle of Indiction. There are calendars based upon Jupiter and its 12-year cycle. But all are cyclical-based.


 
See also:

Saturday, March 2, 2024

ICT Seasonality | Michael J. Huddleston

 
 
We are in the quiet part of the year still.
Spring is coming to the markets very soon.

The year, if viewed as a single range ... we are in the Accumulation phase still.
Don't blow your equity before the salad days return.

January to April is the yearly Accumulation.
April to May is the Manipulation.
May to November is the Distribution.
December resets the yearly range.

Power of 3

Now go lose sleep over it in your charts.

You won't appreciate this until you pour
over all markets and asset classes and then your ass will hit the floor.
 
 
 
Time is more important than Price.

 
 
 
There are two sets of instructions that the algorithm follows:  

AMD-X and X-AMD
 
A = Accumulation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation
D = Distribution
X = Reversal or Continuation

Friday, October 14, 2022

The Name of God & The Rule of Nine | Martin Armstrong

Martin A. Armstrong (2008) - Just about everyone knows the "666" omen, but strikingly, most do not know the number of the name the Jews gave to God - "Jehovah." If we use the old Hebrew system we can find the number of God. Yod = 10, He = 5, and Van = 6. Therefore, the name of God in Hebrew He Van He Yod equals 5 + 6 + 5 + 10 = 26. The number of the name assigned to God by the Jews is 26.
 
 
I explained that I discovered the 8.6 year cycle by adding up the total number of financial panics between 1683 and 1907, which created a time-space of 224 years. I found that there were 26 financial panics and then divided that into the 224 years to obtain an average. That produced the 8.6 year frequency. Only when it began to project to specific days, then I decided to study much deeper. There is, the fact that it appeared to be intricately complex running concurrent with countless other cyclical behavior be it natural or man himself in a sort of time-space tube created by an interdependent, self-referral field network whereby, the output of each and every iteration becomes the input for the next generation perpetuating patterns of order in such a dynamic structure, that one cannot see the order of the whole for the mask of superficial chaos. There simply is yet a separate and distinct core frequency of 26 running through the center of the field causing not merely Phase-Transitions, but also Phase-Shifts and Phase-Cancellations when two cycles indeed collide of equal yet opposite forces.

1929 - 1955 - 1981 - 2007

The above sequence of dates provides a simple demonstration of the interesting relationship of 26 to the Economic Confidence Model. The high on the last Private 51.6 year Wave was 1929.75. If we simply take the annual count of 26, we produce the above time series, The great expansion of U.S. debt began from the 1955 post-war target where spending without regard to maintaining the ratio to gold may safely be defined as the start of the perpetual. spending. The next target 1981, was the high of the Public Wave of 51.6 years marked by the peak in interest rates and the open battle against inflation. This brings us to 2007, where the model has correctly given the high 2007.15 that targeted to the day, the start of this economic decline.

Previously, we looked at two time series, one beginning from 1775 marking the start of the American Revolution, contrasted with 1788 that marked the beginning of the federal government with the Constitution. The differential between these two series is half the 26 cycle - 13 years. It is twice 26 that produces the number 52 that we will see is central to the Maya, but was also the observation of the commodity cycle noted by Kondratieff - the Russian economist. We can see that the timing interval of 26 is a critical and interesting number to say the least.
 
Another kabala number of mystery has been attributed to the famous Gaon from Vilna who discovered that the Hebrew
word for truth (taf-mem-aleph) produces the number taf = 400, mem = 40, and aleph = 1 added together 441 = 9.
It was argued that God created the world based upon truth, which is the number 9. If you take any number greater
than 9, add the individual numbers, and subtract the original, we end up with a number divisible by 9.

 
Whether 26 is the "God Cycle" is interesting. Hipparchus of Rhodes observed around 150 BC that the equinoxes moved with time. This is where the Sun's path crosses the celestial equator. He realized that these were not fixed in time and space but traveled in a cyclical manner. The movement was extremely slow in a westerly direction. This amounted to but less than 2° in about 150 years. This slow movement is known as the "Precession of the Equinoxes" and requires generations to even observe. It is less than 2° movement every 150 years, bringing this also to a virtual number of close to 26,000 years to complete one cycle.

Chinese Stock Indices, Gann Time Theory & Solar Terms | Tianbao Zhou et al.

Stock indices proved to be rather predictable to some extent. Therefore, according to the study, investors can invest in ETFs that belong to the indices as an ETF is completely coincidental with the index it belongs to. Furthermore, ETFs provide investors with a variety of options of risk and profit. The Shanghai ETF is smooth whereas the Second Board 50 Fund fluctuates a lot. Investors are able to get a high profit from individual stocks as well through implementing the results of this study. The correlation between the turning points of indices and the Chinese 24 solar terms was positive (r = 0.9878).

Turning points always occur near solar terms. Through testing n-day extreme points with a different n value, the sharp turns of the trend often happened near the solar terms, and if we choose 4 days as the valid time radius, the probability is about 80%. Investors should be alert for four days before and four days after a solar term. If the price is too high (low), it is more likely to be affected by the coming solar term, and the higher (lower) the price is, the more instability the trend then would have. However, solar terms are not always strong turning points, but they might cause weaker turning points. In other words, solar terms might not cause a sharp reversal of the stock trend; strong turning points were just some exceptions. Usually, the turning points were not that strong but sufficient for medium-term and short-term investors. The alert period provided investors with a good strategy for short-term and medium-term trading. When judging the upcoming reversal, it should be dynamic. 
 
 
[...] Eight of the Chinese 24 solar terms are very prominent, namely, Chunfen (6), Xiazhi (12), Qiufen (18) and Dongzhi (24), which represent the most vigorous time-points in each season and are the most important four solar terms; the other four are Lichun (3), Lixia (9), Ligiu (15) and Lidong (21). These four represent the beginning of each season and are the second important four solar terms.
 

To our surprise, the importance of these eight solar terms exactly coincides with the wheel of the cycle theory in Gann theory. In Gann’s wheel, the most important four angles are 90°, 180°, 270° and 360° (0°), and the corresponding time-points of each year are exactly the four solar terms of Chunfen (6), Xiazhi (12), Qiufen (18) and Dongzhi (24). The second important four angles, 45°, 135°, 225° and 315° exactly correspond to the four solar terms of Lichun (3), Lixia (9), Liqiu (15) and Lidong (21). Regardless of the angle in Gann theory or solar terms, they all point to a common rule, that is, the stock trend is most likely to turn at these eight points. We can summarize the above results as follows: variable or more significant extreme points often occur at the solar term point, and the solar term point usually makes the stock trend turn according to its strength, and the turning strength is large or small.
 
[...] the Chinese traditional culture, human society is affected by natural factors at every moment, and one of the factors is time (including the time cycle, time-points and time periods). Despite the fact that the absolute price of a stock is generally supposed to be unpredictable, the turning points and reversal of trend of stock indices have rules to follow. 
 
Gann theory suggests that the cycle of time is almost everywhere in the stock market, like our pulse cycle and four seasons of the year. Nobody denies the existence of the time cycle as it retains its rationality and regularity in the nature. Whether or not we know, the regular shocks and vibrations in the stock market caused by time do happen.

[...] we only analyzed the trend and turning points of the Shanghai Index rather than a certain stock or an absolute stock price. We supposed that the index is a wide and general performance of the stock market which eliminates many extreme and irregular cases. Many theories have focused on calendar effects, and all of them show the effort in searching for the independent time factors over regular human factors that may affect the stock market. However, such a division of time is so modern that the turns do not always fall on them. 
 
Besides the solar terms, in China, we have 12 zodiacs (corresponding to a 12-year cycle), lunar months (corresponding to the monthly change of the moon), 10 heavenly stems and 12 earthly branches as well as the constellation of both the Chinese version and the Western version. Thus, we can see that throughout the history, ancient people were always doing tremendous work in summarizing many kinds of time cycles in order to survive, forecast and develop their civilization.
 
 As early as the Spring and Autumn Period (770–476 BC), Chinese ancestors had already established two major solar terms, ri nan zhi (日南至 'Sun South Most') and ri bei zhi (日北至 'Sun North Most'). As of the end of the Warring States Period (475–221 BC), eight key solar terms (Start of Spring, Vernal Equinox, Start of Summer, Summer Solstice, Start of Autumn, Autumnal Equinox, Start of Winter and Winter Solstice) marking the four seasons, were established according to the different positions of the sun and changes in natural phenomena. The rest of the solar terms were initiated in the Western Han Dynasty (206 BC–24 AD). Hence most terms refer to the climate of Xi'an, capital of the Han Dynasty.

[...] The 24 solar terms in each year and their links accurately fitted the trend of the stock in that year. Using 24 price data-points instead of nearly 250 daily data-points of the whole year could make the daily data of high frequency more concise and easier to process. With 250 high-frequency daily data-points, there is strong volatility, which leads to the obvious heteroscedasticity of the data and increases the complexity of data analysis. 
 
The use of 24 solar terms instead of annual data also greatly reduces this unstable and irregular fluctuation. This also coincides with Gann theory. The forecast of future trends in the all-terms group and the eight-terms group was precise, but there remained a gap with the absolute price. We were only able to forecast the time-points and the turning points; as for the absolute price, we hardly made it. This is because the stock market involves a great deal of instability and is extremely complicated.



[...] as we were inspired by Gann, Elliott and the Chinese 24 solar terms, we would rather look for those that do not change, and that is the key to have a better understanding and cognition of our real world, of course, including the stock market. For this reason, it is the higher dimensional time factor and time cycle that produce an overwhelming impact on the stock market, so it reminds us of taking into account the importance of time when conducting such a study. That is why Gann summarized a tremendous amount of time periods to inform the possible reversal in the capital market while the ancient Chinese figured out 24 divisions of a year as 24 solar terms which all solely point to time.

In addition, the ancient Chinese elaborated a complex system, and there are actually many  other divisions of time, years, months, etc. in the Chinese culture. For example, the ten heavenly stems and the twelve earthly branches decide what a year would be like, and that is a 60-year cycle as there are 60 different combinations of one out of the ten heavenly stems with one out of the twelve earthly branches. By the way, one combination is called Gengzi, which is supposed to be the year of disasters and conflicts; the latest Gengzi year was 2020.