Showing posts with label Fractal Design of Time. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fractal Design of Time. Show all posts

Thursday, June 6, 2024

The Five Stages of the Revolutionary Cycle | Martin Armstrong

Governments fall when the police no longer offer them protection. [...] The Revolutionary Cycle takes place in five stages:

Stage 1: Whistleblower Disagreements; Discontentment Grows
Stage 2: Initial Conflict Begins; Economy Begins to Decline
Stage 3: Civil Unrest Peaks
Stage 4: Revolution
Stage 5: Recovery

The FIRST STAGE in a revolution is always the rise of intellectual whistleblower disagreement, which the government simply ignores as a passing phase. This stage is the realization of corruption and injustice of governmental rule. Perhaps the symbolization of this was the revelation of Edward Snowden [2013 – present
] that the government was violating the constitution and abusing its power against the people, constructing a 100% surveillance state [...]

 » The former head of state is often publicly killed, and typically all their ministers. «

The SECOND STAGE is where the intellectual debates prove pointless, and the initial conflict begins. This corruption has run its course, and governments have transformed justice into their own self-interest. This stage is usually accelerated by governments raising taxes in the midst of an economic decline. [...] This is when history will typically produce some leader who can be a moderate who sees the problem and will often try to reason in order to reach a resolution that is ignored by the government. This further intensifies the feelings of injustice, especially in light of the economic decline. [...]

The THIRD STAGE is where it often becomes an outright war in the streets as governments seek to retain power and refuse to see the error of their ways. [...]


The FOURTH STAGE is retribution in a domestic revolution in direct confrontation with the government and head of state. [...] The former head of state is often publicly killed, and typically all their ministers.  [...]

 » Hang everyone. That's the only solution. «
Washington D.C. – May 31, 2024

The FIFTH STAGE is typically the recovery stage, where a new form of government emerges from the ashes. [...] During this recovery stage, the radicals are usually overthrown, and sometimes, a new head of state emerges, such as Napoleon or Oliver Cromwell. [...] Divisions emerge once again between opposing political views. At this point, there is the restoration of a sense of nationalism, but the cycle of corruption slowly begins to take root. 
 
We [the USA] are currently in the SECOND STAGE of the Revolutionary Cycle and rapidly heading toward STAGE THREE as discontent grows.
 
 
The end is nigh, draw or mate? – June 6, 2024
 
See also:

Tuesday, June 4, 2024

The Sixth Wave and 2032.95 | Martin Armstrong

Here is the Economic Confidence Model at the very high end to all the questions about how high up the fractal structure can be defined.

 Martin Armstrong's Fractal Design of Time.

We are in the grand Public Wave overall that peaks in 2032.95. This is the equivalent of the wave that picked the Peak of Rome in 175 AD. So here, too, this is a wave where the government will fight very hard to hold control, for that is the dominant 309.6 character, while the final wave on the next fractal level is a Private Wave of 51.6 years. This is the people fighting back as they lose confidence in the government. The two forces are at war right now. The worse the environment becomes for the people, the more authoritarian governments will become. Each wave of 8.6 also alters back and forth between Public and Private.

This is why I warn it is time to try to reduce the amplitude by waking up. We achieved this briefly with the Age of Enlightenment. Government then fought back and reclaimed control. We replaced monarchy with ministers. Nothing changed otherwise. We will fight the good fight once again and seek to triumph with a new age of Enlightenment. Will we win? Who knows. But we have to try. What comes after 2032 is a private wave – the opportunity to reclaim our liberty once again.
Here is that chart.
 
 » It has been propaganda that we live under a democracy. The people have no right to vote on critical issues.  
Republics historically are the most corrupt forms of government. «

The last Sixth Wave marked the peak of the Roman Empire. Every historian has drawn the line to mark the beginning of the Fall of Rome took place with the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD. Talk about almost getting to a new age, he sent an ambassador to China. This has been revealed by books from the Tang Dynasty. The East and West knew each other. Merchants ran the trade routes. This would have been the beginning of a major global economy back in 180 AD. Marcus’ death ended the golden age and expansion of the world economy. He was followed by his crazy son, Commodus. With the death of Commodus, the Praetorian Guard actually auctioned off the position of emperor to the highest bidder. Since he was just nuts, they got to rule Rome, and it went to the heads, to the point that corruption was in the open.
 

I have told the story of how I used to meet with people who wanted to run for President at the behest of those in the Republican Party. Then in 1999, I was asked to fly down to Texas to meet with George Bush, Jr. I was told that this was different. They had me meet with various potential candidates to vet them out and give my opinion if they could handle the job from understanding the global economy. So what was different with Bush, Jr., was the fact they told me he was “stupid.” I was shocked. I asked why would you want to make someone stupid president? I was told he had the “name.” That is when they asked me to be the chief economist in the White House. I declined, for our business was way too global for that. They told me the plan was to surround him with good people. That is how Cheney took the role of President and moved his office in the White House.

 » The 8.6 year frequency is fractal in nature and it may indeed 
work from different dates other than the formal dates we show on the ECM. «

I have been told similar traits with Obama. He was told they would let him play with the social stuff but leave everything else to them. The bureaucracy tasted power under Bush, and they were not about to let that go. Obama missed more than 60% of his daily security briefings. Biden is, at best, a part-time president who no one believes is truly running the nation because he simply is not mentally capable of doing so. This is the Praetorian Guard running the world.

 
» By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. «

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Happy Pi Day | Martin A. Armstrong

Perhaps it was my fate or destiny since I grew up in Maple Shade, New Jersey, with the house address of 314 South Lippincott Avenue. What a coincidence.
 
 

When I discovered that list of international panics and divided simply 26 into 224 years, it came out with 8.6153. Multiply that by 365 days = 3,144. Suddenly, the accuracy of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) made sense – it was Pi, the magic number that the Egyptians even used to build the Pyramids.
 
 
See also:
 
 [The ECM does not track or forecast individual financial instruments, securities, or markets.]

Thursday, January 18, 2024

Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups | Darya Filipenka

 
A 90 minute cycle either plays out as an AMD-X or as a X-AMD pattern:
A = Accumulation/Consolidation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation/Expansion
D = Distribution/Expansion
X = Reversal or Continuation
 
Q1 dictates Q2, Q3 and Q4.
If Q1 accumulates (A), Q2 expands (M).
If Q2 accumulates (A), Q4 expands (D).
If Q1 expands, Q2 
accumulates, Q3 expands and Q4 accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 
accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 
accumulates.
If Asia expands, skip London, trade NY and skip the PM session.
If Asia consolidates, trade London, skip NY, then trade the PM Session.
London is more prone to make the high/low of the day whenever Asia consolidates. 
Anticipate price to run the high if you are bearish or the low if you are bullish.
Tuesday is more prone to make the high/low of the week whenever Monday consolidates.
Best trading days will have consolidation during the Asian Session.
 
 
Possible Quarterly Phase Transitions:
  • Accumulation → Expansion: The initial phase A often begins with Accumulation, where price movement remains within a narrow range. This will transition into an expansion phase M.
  • Expansion → Retracement or Reversal: Within the expansion phase, the market can either experience a retracement, where prices pull back temporarily before continuing in the same direction, or a reversal, where the trend changes direction entirely.
  • Retracement → Expansion or Reversal: A retracement, which involves a temporary pullback in prices, can be followed by either an expansion phase or a reversal, depending on how traders react to the retracement.
  • Reversal → Expansion or Retracement: Following a reversal, where the trend direction changes, the market can enter either an expansion phase or a retracement, as traders adapt to the new direction.
  • Expansion → Retracement → Another Leg Up/Down: After an expansion phase, a retracement may occur, followed by another price movement in the same direction, often resulting in another leg up or down in the overall trend.
  • Expansion → Reversal: In the expansion phase, a trend reversal can occur, leading to a shift in price direction.
 

Impossible
Quarterly Phase Transitions:
  • Accumulation → Reversal: A direct transition from Accumulation to reversal is not likely, as Accumulation represents a phase of price stabilization, whereas reversal involves a significant change in trend direction.
  • Accumulation → Retracement: Similarly, a direct transition from Accumulation to retracement is unlikely, as Accumulation involves a range-bound price movement, while retracement implies a temporary pullback in an existing trend.
  • Accumulation → Expansion → Accumulation: After an expansion phase, transitioning directly back into another Accumulation is not a common occurrence. The expansion phase typically leads to further price movement or potential retracement/reversal.
  • Retracement → Reversal: Transitioning directly from a retracement to a reversal without an intermediate expansion phase is improbable, as retracement represents a temporary pause within a trend, whereas reversal involves a fundamental shift in trend direction.
 

Monday, January 15, 2024

Quarterly Theory vs S&P 500 | Week January 15 - 19

Time-price relations are fractal and governed by algorithms. The trading week comprises four time quarters (Q1-Q4): Q1 is Monday, Q2 Tuesday, Q3 Wednesday and Q4 Thursday. Friday has a special function and is not part of this cycle. The market maker's time-price algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 patterns: AMD - X and X - AMD in which Q1-Q4 have the following functions: A   =  Accumulation phase; M  =  Manipulation phase; D  =  Distribution phase and X  =  Continuation or Reversal phase. In the weekly AMD - X pattern Q1 Monday is the Accumulation phase. Q2 Tuesday is the Manipulation phase and the first Q2 price is the weeks True Open. Q3 Wednesday has the 'distribution function' and produces the weeks largest directional move. Q3 is easiest and best to trade. X Thursday continues or reverses the Q3 trend. In the weekly X - AMD pattern Q1 Monday is the X day, Q2 accumulates, Q3 manipulates and Q4 Thursday produces the week's largest directional move; easiest and best to trade.    
 
S&P 500 (4 hour bars)
The Monthly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one week each. 
Q1 is the first full week of the month, Q2 the second week, etc.
Week January 15 - 19 (Mon-Fri) =
 Q2 week with Accumulation function and AMD - X day pattern. 
 
 S&P 500 (30 minute bars)
 
Each trading day comprises four six hour quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 00:00 Asia Session
Q2 - 00:00 - 06:00 London Session (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 06:00 - 12:00 New York AM Session
Q4 - 12:00 - 18:00 New York PM Session
The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 session patterns:
AMD - X and X - AMD

Each six hour session comprises four 90 minute quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 19:30
Q2 - 19:30 - 21:00 (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 21:00 - 22:30
Q4 - 22:30 - 00:00
The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 90 minute patterns:
AMD - X and X - AMD

Each 90 minute cycle comprises four  22.5 minute micro-quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 18:22:30
Q2 - 18:22:30 - 18:45 (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 18:45 - 19:07:30
Q4 - 19:07:30 - 19:30 
The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 22.5 minute patterns:
AMD - X and X - AM
 
Reference:

Saturday, January 13, 2024

The Quarterly Theory | Jevaunie Daye

In March 2023 Jevaunie Daye (traderdaye), a young ICT trader from the US, took the trading world by storm with his Quarterly Theory (not to be confused with the Quarters Theory), a concept he derived from Michael Huddleston's ICT mentorships. Within weeks Daye's Youtube Channel with just one video in which he briefly outlined his theory exploded to 16,000 subscribers: "Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles."  
 
 

The idea is to split year, month, week, day and session into quarters at specific times which lead to ICT's Power of 3 (Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution) cycles within those quarters. They present in one of these two forms:

Q1. (A)ccumulation - Consolidation.
Q2. (M)anipulation - Judas Swing.
Q3. (D)istribution - Low Resistance Liquidity Run.
Q4. (X) - Continuation or Reversal of previous quarter.

(OR)

Q1. (X) - Continuation or Reversal of previous quarter.
Q2. (A)ccumulation - Consolidation.
Q3. (M)anipulation - Judas Swing.
Q4. (D)istribution - Low Resistance Liquidity Run.
 
 
Blending the Quarterly Theory and basic ICT concepts leads to enhanced precision. Understanding Quarterly Theory allows to be flexible. It fits in with any style of trading, as it is universal to all time-frames. The Quarterly Theory removes ambiguity, as it gives specific time-based reference points to look for when entering trades. Before being able to apply this theory to trading, one must first understand that time is fractal:

Yearly Quarters = 4 quarters of three months each.
Monthly Quarters = 4 quarters of one week each.
Weekly Quarters = 4 quarters of one day each (Monday - Thursday). Friday has its own specific function.
Daily Quarters = 4 quarters of 6 hours each = 4 trading sessions of a trading day.
Sessions Quarters =  4 quarters of 90 minutes each.
90 Minute Quarters =  4 quarters of 22.5 minutes each.
 
Yearly Cycle: Analogously to financial quarters, the year is divided in four sections of three months each:
 
Q1 - January, February, March.
Q2 - April, May, June (True Open, April Open).
Q3 - July, August, September.
Q4 - October, November, December.
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) — Monthly Cycle.

Monthly Cycle: Considering that we have four weeks in a month, we start the cycle on the first month’s Monday (regardless of the calendar Day):
 
Q1 - Week 1: first Monday of the month.
Q2 - Week 2: second Monday of the month (True Open, Daily Candle Open Price).
Q3 - Week 3: third Monday of the month.
Q4 - Week 4: fourth Monday of the month.
 
 
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour candles) — Weekly Cycle.
 
Weekly Cycle: Daye determined that although the trading week is composed by 5 trading days, we should ignore Friday, and the small portion of Sunday’s price action:
 
Q1 - Monday.
Q2 - Tuesday (True Open, Daily Candle Open Price).
Q3 - Wednesday.
Q4 - Thursday.
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (1 hour candles) — Daily Cycle.

Daily Cycle: The Day can be broken down into 6 hour quarters. These times roughly define the sessions of the trading day, reinforcing the theory’s validity:
 
Q1 - 18:00 - 00:00 Asia.
Q2 - 00:00 - 06:00 London (True Open).
Q3 - 06:00 - 12:00 NY AM.
Q4 - 12:00 - 18:00 NY PM.
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (15 minute candles) — 6 Hour Cycle.

6 Hour Quarters or 90 Minute Cycle / Sessions divided into four sections of 90 minutes each  (EST/EDT):
 
Asian Session
Q1 - 18:00 - 19:30
Q2 - 19:30 - 21:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 21:00 - 22:30
Q4 - 22:30 - 00:00
 London Session
Q1 - 00:00 - 01:30
Q2 - 01:30 - 03:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 03:00 - 04:30
Q4 - 04:30 - 06:00
NY AM Session 
Q1 - 06:00 - 07:30
Q2 - 07:30 - 09:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 09:00 - 10:30
Q4 - 10:30 - 12:00
NY PM Session 
Q1 - 12:00 - 13:30
Q2 - 13:30 - 15:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 15:00 - 16:30
Q4 - 16:30 - 18:00
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (5 minute candles) — 90 Minute Cycle.

Micro Cycles: Dividing the 90 Minute Cycle yields 22.5 Minute Quarters, also known as Micro Sessions or Micro Quarters:
 
Asian Session
Q1/1 18:00:00 - 18:22:30
Q2     18:22:30 - 18:45:00
Q3     18:45:00 - 19:07:30
Q4     19:07:30 - 19:30:00
Q2/1 19:30:00 - 19:52:30 (True Session Open)
Q2/2 19:52:30 - 20:15:00
Q2/3 20:15:00 - 20:37:30
Q2/4 20:37:30 - 21:00:00
Q3/1 21:00:00 - 21:23:30
etc.    21:23:30 - 21:45:00
London Session
00:00:00 - 00:22:30  (True Daily Open)
00:22:30 - 00:45:00
00:45:00 - 01:07:30
01:07:30 - 01:30:00
01:30:00 - 01:52:30  (True Session Open)
01:52:30 - 02:15:00
02:15:00 - 02:37:30
02:37:30 - 03:00:00
03:00:00 - 03:22:30
03:22:30 - 03:45:00
03:45:00 - 04:07:30
04:07:30 - 04:30:00
04:30:00 - 04:52:30
04:52:30 - 05:15:00
05:15:00 - 05:37:30
05:37:30 - 06:00:00
New York AM Session
06:00:00 - 06:22:30
06:22:30 - 06:45:00
06:45:00 - 07:07:30
07:07:30 - 07:30:00
07:30:00 - 07:52:30  (True Session Open)
07:52:30 - 08:15:00
08:15:00 - 08:37:30
08:37:30 - 09:00:00
09:00:00 - 09:22:30
09:22:30 - 09:45:00
09:45:00 - 10:07:30
10:07:30 - 10:30:00
10:30:00 - 10:52:30
10:52:30 - 11:15:00
11:15:00 - 11:37:30
11:37:30 - 12:00:00
New York PM Session
12:00:00 - 12:22:30
12:22:30 - 12:45:00
12:45:00 - 13:07:30
13:07:30 - 13:30:00
13:30:00 - 13:52:30
  (True Session Open)
13:52:30 - 14:15:00
14:15:00 - 14:37:30
14:37:30 - 15:00:00
15:00:00 - 15:22:30
15:22:30 - 15:45:00
15:45:00 - 15:37:30
15:37:30 - 16:00:00
16:00:00 - 16:22:30
16:22:30 - 16:45:00
16:45:00 - 17:07:30
17:07:30 - 18:00:00
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (30 second candles) — 22.5 Minute Cycle.

The Monthly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one week each. Start counting the quarters from the first full week, meaning if the first week relating to the traditional month is a partial week, it is omitted and viewed as distortion. The first full week of the month is the first quarter, the second week is the second quarter, the third week is the third quarter and the fourth week is the fourth quarter.

 

The Weekly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one day each. Monday is the first quarter, Tuesday is the second quarter, Wednesday is the third quarter and Thursday is the fourth quarter. Friday is not included into the weekly cycle due to the fact that it has its own specific function.

The Daily Cycle is comprised of four quarters, six hours each, which perfectly aligns with the four trading sessions of a trading day. The first quarter is the Asian session, the second quarter is the London session, the third quarter is the New York session and the fourth quarter is the afternoon session. 
 
Each Session is comprised of four quarters, 90 minutes each. During the Asian session, the 90 minute cycles are as follows: 18:00 to 19.30 is the first quarter, 19.30 to 21:00 is the second quarter, 21:00 to 22:30 is the third quarter and 22:30 to 24:00 midnight is the fourth quarter. During the London session, the first quarter is 00.00 / midnight to 1:30. The second quarter is 1:30 to 3:00. The third quarter is 3:00 to 4:30, and the fourth quarter is 4:30 to 6:00. The New York AM Session starts with the first quarter at 6:00 and lasts to 7:30. The second quarter is 7:30 to 9:00. The third quarter is 9:00 to 10:30. And the fourth quarter is 10:30 to 12:00. The first quarter of the New York PM Session starts  at 12:00 and lasts to 13:30. The second quarter is 13:30 to 15:00. The third quarter is 15:00 to 16:30. And the fourth quarter is 16:30 to 18:00.

Now that we understand that time is fractal, we can begin to look into the functions of some of the quarters. Price is delivered by an algorithm. So there must be some initial input which is used to make decisions throughout each cycle. This is the function of Q1. Q1 dictates the quarters which follow, meaning Q1 is used as a barometer for forecasting market conditions in the subsequent quarters of each cycle. If the first quarter is overextended, expect the second quarter to consolidate, and if the first quarter is in a tight range, expect the second quarter to expand. 
 
 
True Opens are the main components of quarterly theory. There are specific openings of price which serve as a time-based filter for gauging manipulation swings or stop-hunts. True opens are the beginning of Q2 of every cycle.  True Opens are defined by these times:
  • Yearly True Open = 1st Monday of April.
  • Monthly True Open = 2nd Monday of the month.
  • Weekly True Open = 18:00 every Monday.
  • Daily True Open = 12:00 (Midnight).
  • NY AM Session True Open = 7:30
  • NY AM Session True Open = 13:30
  • Asian Session True Open = 19:30
  • London Session True Open = 1:30
 
Buy below True Open. Sell above True Open.
 
 
It is a simple concept to understand. If you are bullish within a specific cycle, you want to buy below its true open, and if you are bearish within a specific cycle, you want to sell above its true open. This will increase your accuracy tremendously, as key levels usually rest above or below true opens. Every cycle has its own true open. The true year open is the opening price of the first Monday of April. The true month open is the opening price of the second Monday of the month. The true week open is Monday at 18:00. The true day open is 12 o'clock midnight. The true open of the age on session is 19:30. The true open of the London session is 1:30. The true open of the New York session is 7:30. And the true open of the afternoon session is 13:30. The image to the right depicts how true opens function during bullish market environments.

There are two sets of instructions that the algorithm follows:  

AMD-X and X-AMD
 
A = Accumulation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation = Judas Swing
D = Distribution
X = Reversal or Continuation

After a tight Q1 range the Q2 Manipulation Phase begins. ICT calls this the Judas Swing. According to his algorithmic theory, the purpose of this fake move is to get traders offside. After Q2 the real move takes place: the Q3 distribution phase and is usually the easiest to trade as the previous quarter has already established a trend of the cycle. The fourth phase is X which can either continue to establish range of the cycle or reverse. In regards to this example, the fourth quarter is reversal. As you can see, price reverses at Higher Time Frame Premium-Discount Arrays (PDAs) or key levels. 
 
 The AMD-Principle is represented in every bar of every time-frame (monthly, weekly, daily, 4 Hour, etc.) 
with a price value at which it starts trading (opening price), the highest price value (high), the lowest (low), 
and  a value of the time it ends trading (close).

Liquidity is induced when price breaches old highs and old lows while trading into key levels. If you usually trade with the one minute chart, you need a 15 minute PDA. If you usually trade with the five minute chart, you need a one hour PDA. If you usually trade with the 15 minute chart, you need a four hour PDA. If you usually trade with the one hour chart, you need a daily PDA. And if you usually trade with the four hour chart, you need a weekly PDA. 
 
Regarding X-AMD, the first quarter is the continuation or reversal of the previous Q. Of the previous cycle, using what we understand from the function of Q1, Q2 should then accumulate, resulting in high range price action. Q3 would then be the manipulation phase. However, the rules for the true opens are static. They don't change. The opening price of Q2 will always be its true open. So if the profile that you're looking at is X-AMD, even though accumulation takes place during Q2, you will use the opening price of Q2, which is its true open to gauge, the Judah swing, which will present itself more times or not in Q3. The last phase will be the distribution phase, which will be the easiest phase to trade in regards to X-AMD. 
 
Dividing a 90 Minute Cycle into 22.5 Minute Quarters (Micro Sessions).
 
Reference:
 
Quarterly Theory - the Hack of the Algorithm?
» Is this proof of the algorithm existing or not? I do think so;-) 
And it's mind blowing how this fractal quarterly theory happens over and over again. «